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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation EURef phone poll follows ComRes and has reduced though still clear REMAIN lead

Survation chart showing latest phone poll wit reduced REMAIN lead pic.twitter.com/X9LdJeDkw0

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FrancisUrquhart

The Brussels and Paris terror attacks hinged on a pot-bellied, bearded jihadi guru who goes by the nickname of Papa Noel, or Father Christmas, it emerged on Thursday.

Prosecutors say Khalid Zerkani, 42, dubbed "Belgium's biggest ever jihadi recruiter", had links with Najim Laachraoui, whose DNA on Wednesday betrayed him as the second suicide bomber of the Brussels airport attack - pictured pushing a trolley with one black glove on shortly before the devastating blasts.

Police suspect Laahchraoui of being the bomb maker in both Brussels and Paris. Belgian authorities say Laachraoui travelled to Syria in 2013 to train and recruit other foreign fighters before slipping back into Europe among a wave of migrants last autumn.

Moroccan-born Zerkani is also accredited with recruiting two of the Paris killers - Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the suspected mastermind of the atrocities who was killed in a shootout in Saint Denis, outside Paris, shortly afterwards - and Chakib Akrouh, one of the terrace assailants.

During his trial last year for recruiting jihadists, the court heard that Zerkani earned his "Papa Noel" nickname due to his habit of doling out cash and presents to the wayward youths he recruited as thieves and prospective fighters.

He would send them out, Fagin-style, to target train stations and tourists, stealing luggage, even shoplifting for their cause. The profits, officials say, went to help cover the costs of sending recruits from Europe to the battlefields of Syria and Iraq.

But Mohamed Karim Haddad, whose brother was recruited to fight in Syria, told officials that Zerkani was “a charlatan who manipulates young men or socially awkward men, for the wrong cause and probably for his own business.”

-----

Sounds familiar state of affairs...I just can't quite remember where I have heard similar tales before.

JackW

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

FrancisUrquhart

Just four weeks before the carnage in Paris, a list of nearly 100 suspected Islamic militants – many with links to Syria – was passed to the mayor of the Molenbeek, the Brussels district that now stands at the heart of the web of terror linking the atrocities in France and Belgium.

Provided by Belgium’s security services, it included not only the names but also the addresses of men who were to become pivotal in the bloodshed and horror in Brussels and Paris.

Molenbeek’s mayor Françoise Schepmans clearly did not realise its significance, telling an interviewer: ‘What was I supposed to do about them? It is not my job to track possible terrorists. It is the responsibility of the federal police.’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3506304/Web-terror-Paris-Brussels.html

Dupont and Dupond on the case again...

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

Zerkani earned his "Papa Noel" nickname due to his habit of doling out cash and presents to the wayward youths he recruited as thieves and prospective fighters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeVyp98z7Dw

TheScreamingEagles

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Yay

Casino_Royale

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Forecasting a landslide for Remain then?

FrancisUrquhart

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Zerkani earned his "Papa Noel" nickname due to his habit of doling out cash and presents to the wayward youths he recruited as thieves and prospective fighters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeVyp98z7Dw

Nah Kid Company lot just bought loads of drugs, well when they weren't getting them for free from ones of the psychologists Kid Company used.

[Deleted User]

I'm beginning to wonder if Dave has actually managed to open the door to a Labour government! I thought with Labour being run by a Marxist tramp with terrorist buddies that they'd be dead for the foreseeable.

But...then Dave went all doolally. He's split his party and the country by agitating on the wrong side of the EU debate (and thereby guaranteeing a neverendum and a sceptic successor). His chancellor seems to be politically autistic. We've given up on balancing the budget. We've given up on defending ourselves and our culture. Dave's having an utter shocker these days - all avoidable. I used to be fairly pro and am now an irreconcilable. Way to go Dave! Corbyn ahead! FFS.

JackW

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Yay

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Forecasting a landslide for Remain then?

A landslide for ARSE followers to be sure .... and my ARSE4US to follow later in the year.

You certainly can't have too much ARSE ....

JWisemann

Leadership ratings - gold standard indicator of next Prime Minister. JICIPM.

JosiasJessop

Just received a personalised letter from leave.eu in the post.

so the running total is:
Remain: one large leaflet
Leave: one personalised letter.

Leave is winning so far.

Richard_Nabavi

FPT:

Interesting article:

Establishment is increasingly prepared to lose with Cruz than hand the party to Trump

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ted-cruz-republican-establishment-elites-221174

It makes quite a bit of sense, I think. The presidency is a write-off this year, so Republicans need to concentrate on damage limitation. That means (a) Trying to avoid making the party even more of a laughing-stock than it currently is, (b) Trying to limit the damage in the gubernatorial and congressional elections, and (c) Thinking ahead to 2020.

Cruz, though far from ideal on any of the three goals, is likely to be less of an unmitigated disaster than Trump.

Of course, it may be too late anyway.

blackburn63

I'm surprised that more is not made of who pays for polls, polling companies are businesses

Richard_Nabavi

JosiasJessop said:

Just received a personalised letter from leave.eu in the post.

so the running total is:
Remain: one large leaflet
Leave: one personalised letter.

Leave is winning so far.

Was that the Peter Hargreaves letter?

Pulpstar

JWisemann said:

Leadership ratings gold standard indicator of next Prime Minister. JICIPM.

Wouldn't it be better to at lest wait for Jezza's 10% NEV lead in the local elections before forecasting that ?

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Interesting article:

Establishment is increasingly prepared to lose with Cruz than hand the party to Trump

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ted-cruz-republican-establishment-elites-221174

It makes quite a bit of sense, I think. The presidency is a write-off this year, so Republicans need to concentrate on damage limitation. That means (a) Trying to avoid making the party even more of a laughing-stock than it currently is, (b) Trying to limit the damage in the gubernatorial and congressional elections, and (c) Thinking ahead to 2020.

Cruz, though far from ideal on any of the three goals, is likely to be less of an unmitigated disaster than Trump.

Of course, it may be too late anyway.

I'm maintaining (slightly) longer Cruz over Trump for my betting position.

Recidivist

I've always regarded the current Tory success as being very dependent on the excellent presentational skills of Mr Cameron. I'd rather assumed that he would always beat Mr Corbyn on any opinion poll about satisfaction with their role. I'd be surprised if this continues for long, but it does show that the idea that the Tories are a certainty to be back in government for good isn't all that well founded.

taffys

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Interesting article:

Establishment is increasingly prepared to lose with Cruz than hand the party to Trump

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ted-cruz-republican-establishment-elites-221174

It makes quite a bit of sense, I think. The presidency is a write-off this year, so Republicans need to concentrate on damage limitation. That means (a) Trying to avoid making the party even more of a laughing-stock than it currently is, (b) Trying to limit the damage in the gubernatorial and congressional elections, and (c) Thinking ahead to 2020.

Cruz, though far from ideal on any of the three goals, is likely to be less of an unmitigated disaster than Trump.

Of course, it may be too late anyway.

Cruz's wife is a senior Goldmans executive. For the US establishment, Cruz is, in the end, one of us.

blackburn63

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

TheScreamingEagles

JWisemann said:

Leadership ratings - gold standard indicator of next Prime Minister. JICIPM.

Even Ed Miliband led Cameron in the Ipsos Mori leader ratings.

MarkHopkins

JosiasJessop said:

Just received a personalised letter from leave.eu in the post.

so the running total is:
Remain: one large leaflet
Leave: one personalised letter.

Leave is winning so far.

I've had several Remain 'pizza' leaflets.

And one personal letter for my wife from Leave. Nothing for me though. *sobs*.

Casino_Royale

Patrick said:

I'm beginning to wonder if Dave has actually managed to open the door to a Labour government! I thought with Labour being run by a Marxist tramp with terrorist buddies that they'd be dead for the foreseeable.

But...then Dave went all doolally. He's split his party and the country by agitating on the wrong side of the EU debate (and thereby guaranteeing a neverendum and a sceptic successor). His chancellor seems to be politically autistic. We've given up on balancing the budget. We've given up on defending ourselves and our culture. Dave's having an utter shocker these days - all avoidable. I used to be fairly pro and am now an irreconcilable. Way to go Dave! Corbyn ahead! FFS.

A landslide for Remain is a disaster for Dave, IMHO.

A close result means the Tory party gets another shot with a fresh new leader, with Leave sympathies, in the 2020s.

A landslide defeat that closes down the EU issue for a whole generation, and he'll never be forgiven. Particularly with the sort of campaign he'll have run.

He'll be right up there with Heath. That's not good.

EPG

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Interesting article:

Establishment is increasingly prepared to lose with Cruz than hand the party to Trump

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ted-cruz-republican-establishment-elites-221174

It makes quite a bit of sense, I think. The presidency is a write-off this year, so Republicans need to concentrate on damage limitation. That means (a) Trying to avoid making the party even more of a laughing-stock than it currently is, (b) Trying to limit the damage in the gubernatorial and congressional elections, and (c) Thinking ahead to 2020.

Cruz, though far from ideal on any of the three goals, is likely to be less of an unmitigated disaster than Trump.

Of course, it may be too late anyway.

The interesting signal is that the Republican establishment is ultimately happy to get behind Cruz's candidacy
One might be inclined to speculate that his current odds-implied probability of about 15 per cent is ungenerous to Cruz in these circumstances

MaxPB

Richard_Nabavi said:

JosiasJessop said:

Just received a personalised letter from leave.eu in the post.

so the running total is:
Remain: one large leaflet
Leave: one personalised letter.

Leave is winning so far.

Was that the Peter Hargreaves letter?

I got that one as well, it's actually pretty good. It's a shame that Farage and Banks seem intent on making the Leave campaign about them rather than the issue.

Casino_Royale

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Yay

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Forecasting a landslide for Remain then?

A landslide for ARSE followers to be sure .... and my ARSE4US to follow later in the year.

You certainly can't have too much ARSE ....

I'm starting to get less enjoyment than I used to from your ARSE.

williamglenn

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:
Establishment is increasingly prepared to lose with Cruz than hand the party to Trump

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ted-cruz-republican-establishment-elites-221174

It makes quite a bit of sense, I think. The presidency is a write-off this year, so Republicans need to concentrate on damage limitation. That means (a) Trying to avoid making the party even more of a laughing-stock than it currently is, (b) Trying to limit the damage in the gubernatorial and congressional elections, and (c) Thinking ahead to 2020.

Cruz, though far from ideal on any of the three goals, is likely to be less of an unmitigated disaster than Trump.

That seems like a faulty analysis of the party's options, although the concern about gubernatorial and congressional elections is valid.

a) Cruz won't win the general so there will inevitably be recrimination about what might have been if Trump were allowed to run.

b) Trump is a celebrity outsider so even if the election is a debacle it will be easier to draw a line under it than if they lost with an extreme professional politician like Cruz.

c) If the aim is the play it safe the only remaining choice is Kasich.

TheScreamingEagles

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Will your ARSE have a turnout figure?

Is the hardest thing to call about this referendum

LondonBob

taffys said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Interesting article:

Establishment is increasingly prepared to lose with Cruz than hand the party to Trump

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ted-cruz-republican-establishment-elites-221174

It makes quite a bit of sense, I think. The presidency is a write-off this year, so Republicans need to concentrate on damage limitation. That means (a) Trying to avoid making the party even more of a laughing-stock than it currently is, (b) Trying to limit the damage in the gubernatorial and congressional elections, and (c) Thinking ahead to 2020.

Cruz, though far from ideal on any of the three goals, is likely to be less of an unmitigated disaster than Trump.

Of course, it may be too late anyway.

Cruz's wife is a senior Goldmans executive. For the US establishment, Cruz is, in the end, one of us.

https://twitter.com/danpfeiffer/status/707336081859960834

What worries the special interests is not that Trump will lose, but that he will win.

Alistair

Their Senatorial races are already screwed by SCOTUS

FrancisUrquhart

Children abused 'on industrial scale'

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35889595

Richard_Nabavi

EPG said:

The interesting signal is that the Republican establishment is ultimately happy to get behind Cruz's candidacy
One might be inclined to speculate that his current odds-implied probability of about 15 per cent is ungenerous to Cruz in these circumstances

I think those odds aren't far out. As things stand, Trump's delegate lead looks to be large enough to make it very hard indeed to push him aside. Of course that could change between now and the convention.

Another interesting article, on California with its 172 delegates, allocated in 54 separate contests which will make it very hard for the opinion polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/03/23/once_forgotten_california_primary_could_sway_2016_race_130073.html

JackW

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Yay

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Forecasting a landslide for Remain then?

A landslide for ARSE followers to be sure .... and my ARSE4US to follow later in the year.

You certainly can't have too much ARSE ....

I'm starting to get less enjoyment than I used to from your ARSE.

My ARSE is a strict mistress and will always enjoy the whip hand ....

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Will your ARSE have a turnout figure?

Is the hardest thing to call about this referendum

Yes.

McARSE called the turnout figure for SINDY to within half a point. I hope to do better with ARSE4EU ....

LondonBob

EPG said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Interesting article:

Establishment is increasingly prepared to lose with Cruz than hand the party to Trump

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ted-cruz-republican-establishment-elites-221174

It makes quite a bit of sense, I think. The presidency is a write-off this year, so Republicans need to concentrate on damage limitation. That means (a) Trying to avoid making the party even more of a laughing-stock than it currently is, (b) Trying to limit the damage in the gubernatorial and congressional elections, and (c) Thinking ahead to 2020.

Cruz, though far from ideal on any of the three goals, is likely to be less of an unmitigated disaster than Trump.

Of course, it may be too late anyway.

The interesting signal is that the Republican establishment is ultimately happy to get behind Cruz's candidacy
One might be inclined to speculate that his current odds-implied probability of about 15 per cent is ungenerous to Cruz in these circumstances

Huckabee, Gingrich, Guiliani, Christie etc have all basically endorsed Trump. A small faction are vehemently opposed, but their reasons are nothing to do with electability. They are a diminishing number in the GOP but can still cause problems. Ultimately Cruz would be an electoral disaster, that's if the party isn't ripped apart first.

GarethoftheVale2

MarkHopkins said:

JosiasJessop said:

Just received a personalised letter from leave.eu in the post.

so the running total is:
Remain: one large leaflet
Leave: one personalised letter.

Leave is winning so far.

I've had several Remain 'pizza' leaflets.

And one personal letter for my wife from Leave. Nothing for me though. *sobs*.

Nothing from either side here. Surprising as Windsor and Maidenhead is supposed to be on the fence territory according to YouGov. Paradoxically an overly large lead could be bad for remain as it negates the impact of project fear.

Sean_F

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

The problem is not Farage's unpopularity. Although his ratings have not been in positive territory for some time, there's no evidence that he's a particularly unpopular politician. The problem is that he wants to be running the Leave campaign, when he's really only the fourth or fifth most important figure in it.

Alistair

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

JosiasJessop

Richard_Nabavi said:

JosiasJessop said:

Just received a personalised letter from leave.eu in the post.

so the running total is:
Remain: one large leaflet
Leave: one personalised letter.

Leave is winning so far.

Was that the Peter Hargreaves letter?

Yep. I've only skimmed it (which to be fair is all most people will do), but it's fairly professional. It'll be interesting to see if this format has traction.

MaxPB

Casino_Royale said:

Patrick said:

I'm beginning to wonder if Dave has actually managed to open the door to a Labour government! I thought with Labour being run by a Marxist tramp with terrorist buddies that they'd be dead for the foreseeable.

But...then Dave went all doolally. He's split his party and the country by agitating on the wrong side of the EU debate (and thereby guaranteeing a neverendum and a sceptic successor). His chancellor seems to be politically autistic. We've given up on balancing the budget. We've given up on defending ourselves and our culture. Dave's having an utter shocker these days - all avoidable. I used to be fairly pro and am now an irreconcilable. Way to go Dave! Corbyn ahead! FFS.

A landslide for Remain is a disaster for Dave, IMHO.

A close result means the Tory party gets another shot with a fresh new leader, with Leave sympathies, in the 2020s.

A landslide defeat that closes down the EU issue for a whole generation, and he'll never be forgiven. Particularly with the sort of campaign he'll have run.

He'll be right up there with Heath. That's not good.

This is the way I see it. Currently the PM has come out in favour of Remain, he has around half of the MPs behind him and about 30-40% of the party members and about 40-50% of Tory voters. If he had come out in favour of Leave he would have all but a few of the MPs behind him, 80-90% of the membership and 70-80% of Tory voters. It is loyalty to Dave that has split the party, otherwise we would be united behind Leave.

I get the feeling Osborne will end up paying the price for this though as I have heard that the PM was persuadable on Leave but it was Osborne's insistence that pushed him into the Remain camp.

taffys

LondonBob said:

taffys said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Interesting article:

Establishment is increasingly prepared to lose with Cruz than hand the party to Trump

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ted-cruz-republican-establishment-elites-221174

It makes quite a bit of sense, I think. The presidency is a write-off this year, so Republicans need to concentrate on damage limitation. That means (a) Trying to avoid making the party even more of a laughing-stock than it currently is, (b) Trying to limit the damage in the gubernatorial and congressional elections, and (c) Thinking ahead to 2020.

Cruz, though far from ideal on any of the three goals, is likely to be less of an unmitigated disaster than Trump.

Of course, it may be too late anyway.

Cruz's wife is a senior Goldmans executive. For the US establishment, Cruz is, in the end, one of us.

https://twitter.com/danpfeiffer/status/707336081859960834

What worries the special interests is not that Trump will lose, but that he will win.

Absolutely. The Dems would LOVE to run against a prickly, uncharismatic, religious extremist like Cruz.

It's Trump they don;t want to run against, because he is unpredictable, doesn;t play by the rules and is not backed by big business.

Wanderer

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Interesting article:

Establishment is increasingly prepared to lose with Cruz than hand the party to Trump

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ted-cruz-republican-establishment-elites-221174

It makes quite a bit of sense, I think. The presidency is a write-off this year, so Republicans need to concentrate on damage limitation. That means (a) Trying to avoid making the party even more of a laughing-stock than it currently is, (b) Trying to limit the damage in the gubernatorial and congressional elections, and (c) Thinking ahead to 2020.

Cruz, though far from ideal on any of the three goals, is likely to be less of an unmitigated disaster than Trump.

Of course, it may be too late anyway.

Wow that is interesting.

Alistair

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Will your ARSE have a turnout figure?

Is the hardest thing to call about this referendum

For me it determines the result but I do not see a way of forecasting it that is distinguishable from Voodoo.

JackW

Albert Hunt in "Bloomberg" assesses whether Trump will be the Goldwater/McGovern of the 2016 POTUS contest :

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-23/the-case-for-trump-over-clinton-is-a-loser

TheScreamingEagles

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Will your ARSE have a turnout figure?

Is the hardest thing to call about this referendum

For me it determines the result but I do not see a way of forecasting it that is distinguishable from Voodoo.

100% agree, is why I need to see JackW's turnout projection.

JackW is the Kim Kardashian of the polling world.

Casino_Royale

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

Patrick said:

I'm beginning to wonder if Dave has actually managed to open the door to a Labour government! I thought with Labour being run by a Marxist tramp with terrorist buddies that they'd be dead for the foreseeable.

But...then Dave went all doolally. He's split his party and the country by agitating on the wrong side of the EU debate (and thereby guaranteeing a neverendum and a sceptic successor). His chancellor seems to be politically autistic. We've given up on balancing the budget. We've given up on defending ourselves and our culture. Dave's having an utter shocker these days - all avoidable. I used to be fairly pro and am now an irreconcilable. Way to go Dave! Corbyn ahead! FFS.

A landslide for Remain is a disaster for Dave, IMHO.

A close result means the Tory party gets another shot with a fresh new leader, with Leave sympathies, in the 2020s.

A landslide defeat that closes down the EU issue for a whole generation, and he'll never be forgiven. Particularly with the sort of campaign he'll have run.

He'll be right up there with Heath. That's not good.

This is the way I see it. Currently the PM has come out in favour of Remain, he has around half of the MPs behind him and about 30-40% of the party members and about 40-50% of Tory voters. If he had come out in favour of Leave he would have all but a few of the MPs behind him, 80-90% of the membership and 70-80% of Tory voters. It is loyalty to Dave that has split the party, otherwise we would be united behind Leave.

I get the feeling Osborne will end up paying the price for this though as I have heard that the PM was persuadable on Leave but it was Osborne's insistence that pushed him into the Remain camp.

I don't think Cameron was ever persuadable on Leave.

He didn't even want to do the renegotiation.

taffys

JackW said:

Albert Hunt in "Bloomberg" assesses whether Trump will be the Goldwater/McGovern of the 2016 POTUS contest :

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-23/the-case-for-trump-over-clinton-is-a-loser

Something smells here, and it smells big time. Republican caucuses and primaries have record turnouts whilst the dems are completely in the doldrums. People queue for hours to get into Trump meetings whilst the dems play to half empty halls.

And yet Trump lags badly in the polls. Hmmmnnn.

blackburn63

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Plato_Says

Undercovergoverner
The Netherlands is closing down five more prisons due to a lack of inmates... that's 27 prisons since 2009! https://t.co/s2FiaHAegL

FrancisUrquhart

Israelis believe that Palestinian Muslim youth are being radicalized by Islamic groups through online incitement campaigns.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsxAoNPJtog

MaxPB

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

Lennon

taffys said:

JackW said:

Albert Hunt in "Bloomberg" assesses whether Trump will be the Goldwater/McGovern of the 2016 POTUS contest :

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-23/the-case-for-trump-over-clinton-is-a-loser

Something smells here, and it smells big time. Republican caucuses and primaries have record turnouts whilst the dems are completely in the doldrums. People queue for hours to get into Trump meetings whilst the dems play to half empty halls.

And yet Trump lags badly in the polls. Hmmmnnn.

Could you not say the same about Corbyn? Record people joining Labour in order to vote for him, speaking to packed out halls, but poor poll ratings?

Plato_Says

ComRes
2 point Con lead in latest poll for @DailyMailUK

Con 37% (-1)
Lab 35% (+4)
LD 7% (-1)
UKIP 9% (-3)
Green 4% (+1)
SNP 5% (+1)
Other 2% (-1)

Lord Ashcroft
Survation EU telephone poll Remain 46% Leave 35% Undecided 19%

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/ComResPolls/status/713010063640801280

JackW

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Will your ARSE have a turnout figure?

Is the hardest thing to call about this referendum

For me it determines the result but I do not see a way of forecasting it that is distinguishable from Voodoo.

100% agree, is why I need to see JackW's turnout projection.

JackW is the Kim Kardashian of the polling world.

My (polling) curves are more shapely ....

MaxPB

One for Morris Dancer if he is around. The FIA have decided to keep the new qualifying format for Bahrain despite almost unanimous opposition from the teams, drivers and even Bernie. The whole sport is just dying on its feet and the FIA are helping it along. A cynic would suggest that they want to kill F1 and push people towards FE where they hold the broadcast rights.

blackburn63

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

Wanderer

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

Patrick said:

I'm beginning to wonder if Dave has actually managed to open the door to a Labour government! I thought with Labour being run by a Marxist tramp with terrorist buddies that they'd be dead for the foreseeable.

But...then Dave went all doolally. He's split his party and the country by agitating on the wrong side of the EU debate (and thereby guaranteeing a neverendum and a sceptic successor). His chancellor seems to be politically autistic. We've given up on balancing the budget. We've given up on defending ourselves and our culture. Dave's having an utter shocker these days - all avoidable. I used to be fairly pro and am now an irreconcilable. Way to go Dave! Corbyn ahead! FFS.

A landslide for Remain is a disaster for Dave, IMHO.

A close result means the Tory party gets another shot with a fresh new leader, with Leave sympathies, in the 2020s.

A landslide defeat that closes down the EU issue for a whole generation, and he'll never be forgiven. Particularly with the sort of campaign he'll have run.

He'll be right up there with Heath. That's not good.

This is the way I see it. Currently the PM has come out in favour of Remain, he has around half of the MPs behind him and about 30-40% of the party members and about 40-50% of Tory voters. If he had come out in favour of Leave he would have all but a few of the MPs behind him, 80-90% of the membership and 70-80% of Tory voters. It is loyalty to Dave that has split the party, otherwise we would be united behind Leave.

I get the feeling Osborne will end up paying the price for this though as I have heard that the PM was persuadable on Leave but it was Osborne's insistence that pushed him into the Remain camp.

That sounds like a variation on "It's not the King it's his wicked advisors."

Alistair

JackW said:

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Yay

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Forecasting a landslide for Remain then?

A landslide for ARSE followers to be sure .... and my ARSE4US to follow later in the year.

You certainly can't have too much ARSE ....

I'm starting to get less enjoyment than I used to from your ARSE.

My ARSE is a strict mistress and will always enjoy the whip hand ....

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Will your ARSE have a turnout figure?

Is the hardest thing to call about this referendum

Yes.

McARSE called the turnout figure for SINDY to within half a point. I hope to do better with ARSE4EU ....

My greatest betting regret (apart from not taking the 5 quid of 900/1 on Corbyn and lumping on SLab 0-5 seats) was not taking a boat load more of turnout over 70% on the betfair IndyRef market. It was longer than evens for sooooooo long.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Will your ARSE have a turnout figure?

Is the hardest thing to call about this referendum

For me it determines the result but I do not see a way of forecasting it that is distinguishable from Voodoo.

100% agree, is why I need to see JackW's turnout projection.

JackW is the Kim Kardashian of the polling world.

I really don't want to see full frontal nude selfies of Jack.

Or even him standing naked balancing a champagne glass on his ARSE.

JackW

taffys said:

JackW said:

Albert Hunt in "Bloomberg" assesses whether Trump will be the Goldwater/McGovern of the 2016 POTUS contest :

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-23/the-case-for-trump-over-clinton-is-a-loser

Something smells here, and it smells big time. Republican caucuses and primaries have record turnouts whilst the dems are completely in the doldrums. People queue for hours to get into Trump meetings whilst the dems play to half empty halls.

And yet Trump lags badly in the polls. Hmmmnnn.

Jezza packed out the halls and he has as much chance of becoming PM as Ed's bacon sarnie.

Alistair

Lennon said:

taffys said:

JackW said:

Albert Hunt in "Bloomberg" assesses whether Trump will be the Goldwater/McGovern of the 2016 POTUS contest :

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-23/the-case-for-trump-over-clinton-is-a-loser

Something smells here, and it smells big time. Republican caucuses and primaries have record turnouts whilst the dems are completely in the doldrums. People queue for hours to get into Trump meetings whilst the dems play to half empty halls.

And yet Trump lags badly in the polls. Hmmmnnn.

Could you not say the same about Corbyn? Record people joining Labour in order to vote for him, speaking to packed out halls, but poor poll ratings?

During IndyRef Yes speakers addressed sold out standing room only punters turned away at the door halls while No events got half filled rooms at best.

Event attendance is annecdotal.

Sean_F

TBH I think the Conservatives should be rather relieved their ratings are holding up close to GE levels.

Plato_Says

America Elects
California primary preferences:

Clinton: 48%
Sanders: 41%

Trump: 38%
Cruz: 27%
Kasich: 14%

(via PPIC)

MaxPB

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.

TheScreamingEagles

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

No, I loathe him because he's nasty and divisive.

The BNP: The Islamic Fifth Column in Britain

http://bnp.org.uk/news/islamic-fifth-column-britain

Nigel Farage: British Muslim ‘fifth column’ fuels fear of immigration

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/12/nigel-farage-british-muslim-fifth-column-fuels-immigration-fear-ukip

If Farage wanted Leave to win, he'd be putting Suzanne Evans front and centre of the Leave campaign, but he chooses to suspend her.

runnymede

Farage has some qualities but unfortunately is also an egomaniac for whom self-promotion is everything - and this part of his character is not helpful at the current juncture.

Plato_Says

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35890670?ocid=socialflow_twitter

Which flags still include the union jack?

Hawaii

More surprisingly, perhaps, Hawaii, the 50th state to join the United States, in 1959, also includes the union jack. This dates back to 1793, when British captain George Vancouver presented one (without the diagonal red cross of St Patrick, as this preceded the 1801 Act of Union between Great Britain and Ireland) to King Kamehameha I. The union jack flew as Hawaii's sole flag until 1816, when red, white and blue stripes were added. It has remained a part of the flag.

"It might seem strange, as Hawaii was never British," says Graham Bartram, chief vexillologist at the Flag Institute, "but it works as a symbol of friendship. What's interesting is that, when the union jack changed in 1801, so did the flag of Hawaii, even though there wasn't an official connection."

blackburn63

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

No, I loathe him because he's nasty and divisive.

The BNP: The Islamic Fifth Column in Britain

http://bnp.org.uk/news/islamic-fifth-column-britain

Nigel Farage: British Muslim ‘fifth column’ fuels fear of immigration

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/12/nigel-farage-british-muslim-fifth-column-fuels-immigration-fear-ukip

If Farage wanted Leave to win, he'd be putting Suzanne Evans front and centre of the Leave campaign, but he chooses to suspend her.

Are you suggesting Farage doesn't want Leave to win?

Suzanne Evans is more than capable of heading the Leave campaign, Farage isn't stopping her.

Frankly, you're talking bollocks, personal dislike is overcoming reality.

Wanderer

Sean_F said:

TBH I think the Conservatives should be rather relieved their ratings are holding up close to GE levels.

Indeed. I can't see it lasting until the referendum though.

JackW

Alistair said:

JackW said:

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Yay

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Forecasting a landslide for Remain then?

A landslide for ARSE followers to be sure .... and my ARSE4US to follow later in the year.

You certainly can't have too much ARSE ....

I'm starting to get less enjoyment than I used to from your ARSE.

My ARSE is a strict mistress and will always enjoy the whip hand ....

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Will your ARSE have a turnout figure?

Is the hardest thing to call about this referendum

Yes.

McARSE called the turnout figure for SINDY to within half a point. I hope to do better with ARSE4EU ....

My greatest betting regret (apart from not taking the 5 quid of 900/1 on Corbyn and lumping on SLab 0-5 seats) was not taking a boat load more of turnout over 70% on the betfair IndyRef market. It was longer than evens for sooooooo long.

it was one of the strangest aspects of SINDY that pundits and bookies felt that they're wouldn't be an appreciable spike in turnout when all the ramifications of nationhood were on the ballot paper.

TheScreamingEagles

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

No, I loathe him because he's nasty and divisive.

The BNP: The Islamic Fifth Column in Britain

http://bnp.org.uk/news/islamic-fifth-column-britain

Nigel Farage: British Muslim ‘fifth column’ fuels fear of immigration

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/12/nigel-farage-british-muslim-fifth-column-fuels-immigration-fear-ukip

If Farage wanted Leave to win, he'd be putting Suzanne Evans front and centre of the Leave campaign, but he chooses to suspend her.

Are you suggesting Farage doesn't want Leave to win?

Suzanne Evans is more than capable of heading the Leave campaign, Farage isn't stopping her.

Frankly, you're talking bollocks, personal dislike is overcoming reality.

Even many ardent Leavers have said on here they think Farage is trying to sabotage Leave.

LondonBob

Plato_Says said:

America Elects
California primary preferences:

Clinton: 48%
Sanders: 41%

Trump: 38%
Cruz: 27%
Kasich: 14%

(via PPIC)

Primaries have a much bigger sample size and are more representative.

https://twitter.com/brianefallon/status/712498063135404032

blackburn63

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.

Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.

Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.

taffys

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

No, I loathe him because he's nasty and divisive.

The BNP: The Islamic Fifth Column in Britain

http://bnp.org.uk/news/islamic-fifth-column-britain

Nigel Farage: British Muslim ‘fifth column’ fuels fear of immigration

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/12/nigel-farage-british-muslim-fifth-column-fuels-immigration-fear-ukip

If Farage wanted Leave to win, he'd be putting Suzanne Evans front and centre of the Leave campaign, but he chooses to suspend her.

Isn't a muslim fifth column precisely what virulent anti-racist Yasmin A-B is talking about in today's Daily Mail?

TOPPING

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Yay

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Forecasting a landslide for Remain then?

A landslide for ARSE followers to be sure .... and my ARSE4US to follow later in the year.

You certainly can't have too much ARSE ....

Let me help quell the tremulousness:

Leave: 37
Remain: 63

blackburn63

runnymede said:

Farage has some qualities but unfortunately is also an egomaniac for whom self-promotion is everything - and this part of his character is not helpful at the current juncture.

There's some truth in that, but some of the nonsense about him on here is nothing more than personal bile.

Sean_F

I'm sure Farage does want Leave to win, but believes Leave can only win if he's leading the campaign.

TheScreamingEagles

taffys said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

No, I loathe him because he's nasty and divisive.

The BNP: The Islamic Fifth Column in Britain

http://bnp.org.uk/news/islamic-fifth-column-britain

Nigel Farage: British Muslim ‘fifth column’ fuels fear of immigration

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/12/nigel-farage-british-muslim-fifth-column-fuels-immigration-fear-ukip

If Farage wanted Leave to win, he'd be putting Suzanne Evans front and centre of the Leave campaign, but he chooses to suspend her.

Isn't a muslim fifth column precisely what virulent anti-racist Yasmin A-B is talking about in today's Daily Mail?

I've not read the piece, so I can't comment. Does she use the term fifth columnist?

To be honest, I stopped reading her nonsense when she called me an Uncle Tom for voting Tory.

justin124

'TBH I think the Conservatives should be rather relieved their ratings are holding up close to GE levels. '

It often takes a week to ten days for the full effect to filter through.

Casino_Royale

TOPPING said:

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Yay

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Forecasting a landslide for Remain then?

A landslide for ARSE followers to be sure .... and my ARSE4US to follow later in the year.

You certainly can't have too much ARSE ....

Let me help quell the tremulousness:

Leave: 37
Remain: 63

That could easily happen.

And we will deserve everything we get.

blackburn63

Sean_F said:

I'm sure Farage does want Leave to win, but believes Leave can only win if he's leading the campaign.

Is that true though? Its an assumption often made but I've never heard him say that.

JackW

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Will your ARSE have a turnout figure?

Is the hardest thing to call about this referendum

For me it determines the result but I do not see a way of forecasting it that is distinguishable from Voodoo.

100% agree, is why I need to see JackW's turnout projection.

JackW is the Kim Kardashian of the polling world.

I really don't want to see full frontal nude selfies of Jack.

Or even him standing naked balancing a champagne glass on his ARSE.

How about a bottle of single malt ?

Perhaps PB should do a "Calendar Girls" photoshoot ....

Titter ....

Sean_F

Justin124,

That's certainly true. But, Labour have had an immediate boost. That could be enhanced if the Conservatives keep ripping into each other, although things have gone quiet on that front.

TheScreamingEagles

The day that Scotland would have become independent should be a public holiday called 'Unity Day', according to Tory MPs.

Speaking in the House of Commons several Conservative MPs voiced their support for March 24 to be made a public holiday in celebration of the 2014 referendum result. The calls were led by Flyde MP Mark Menzies who was born in Irvine, Ayrshire.

Menzies said: "I'm sure you will agree with me that we represent the greatest country on Earth and it's a privilege to do so and may we thank in that debate the 55% of the people of Scotland who had the good sense to stay with the United Kingdom, to reject budget cuts and penury.

"And Mr Speaker, may we celebrate that occasion by having a national public holiday? Let's call it Unity Day."

http://stv.tv/news/politics/1347711-declare-unity-day-to-mark-scotland-voting-no-say-tory-mps/

Charles

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

No, I loathe him because he's nasty and divisive.

The BNP: The Islamic Fifth Column in Britain

http://bnp.org.uk/news/islamic-fifth-column-britain

Nigel Farage: British Muslim ‘fifth column’ fuels fear of immigration

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/12/nigel-farage-british-muslim-fifth-column-fuels-immigration-fear-ukip

If Farage wanted Leave to win, he'd be putting Suzanne Evans front and centre of the Leave campaign, but he chooses to suspend her.

Are you suggesting Farage doesn't want Leave to win?

Suzanne Evans is more than capable of heading the Leave campaign, Farage isn't stopping her.

Frankly, you're talking bollocks, personal dislike is overcoming reality.

He's had her suspended from the party on a technicality and won't be nom!ating her as a candidate for the London Assembly. Her offence appears to be supporting Vote Leave not Leave.EU.

Of it may be internal UK UP issues of which I'm not aware, but hardly symptomatic of peace and harmony

JosiasJessop

"Physical and sexual abuse on an industrial scale... remained unchecked for decades" at children's homes in south London, a report by victims says.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35889595

bigjohnowls

LOL Jezza more popular than Dave

Casino_Royale

In order for Leave to win I think three things need to happen:

(1) The EU needs to be a clear and present economic basket case (look at polling on the EU in 2011 at the height of the eurozone crisis)
(2) We need to have an oven ready Leave proposal (preferably pre-negotiated and ratified) on the table to vote for
(3) We need a Leave PM advocating it

At the moment we've got 50% of one, don't have two (even though I think the Government know very well what they'd do) and certainly not three, but we could have via a new Tory leader

It may be that all three fall into place over the next 10 years but not if the issue has been closed down for a generation.

blackburn63

Charles said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

No, I loathe him because he's nasty and divisive.

The BNP: The Islamic Fifth Column in Britain

http://bnp.org.uk/news/islamic-fifth-column-britain

Nigel Farage: British Muslim ‘fifth column’ fuels fear of immigration

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/12/nigel-farage-british-muslim-fifth-column-fuels-immigration-fear-ukip

If Farage wanted Leave to win, he'd be putting Suzanne Evans front and centre of the Leave campaign, but he chooses to suspend her.

Are you suggesting Farage doesn't want Leave to win?

Suzanne Evans is more than capable of heading the Leave campaign, Farage isn't stopping her.

Frankly, you're talking bollocks, personal dislike is overcoming reality.

He's had her suspended from the party on a technicality and won't be nom!ating her as a candidate for the London Assembly. Her offence appears to be supporting Vote Leave not Leave.EU.

Of it may be internal UK UP issues of which I'm not aware, but hardly symptomatic of peace and harmony

UKIP is in a mess, of that there is no doubt. But for people to suggest Farage is a liability for Leave is simply untrue, there is no evidence to support it.

MaxPB

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.

Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.

Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.

Banks, UKIP exec are both just Nigel's mouthpieces.

FrancisUrquhart

JosiasJessop said:

"Physical and sexual abuse on an industrial scale... remained unchecked for decades" at children's homes in south London, a report by victims says.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35889595

Some interesting names associated with that story. It might be worth also googling who was involved with social services committee at the time who had ultimate responsibility for overseeing these homes.

blackburn63

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.

Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.

Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.

Banks, UKIP exec are both just Nigel's mouthpieces.

Banks speaks for nobody but Banks.

You're simply making things up.

LondonBob

taffys said:

JackW said:

Albert Hunt in "Bloomberg" assesses whether Trump will be the Goldwater/McGovern of the 2016 POTUS contest :

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-23/the-case-for-trump-over-clinton-is-a-loser

Something smells here, and it smells big time. Republican caucuses and primaries have record turnouts whilst the dems are completely in the doldrums. People queue for hours to get into Trump meetings whilst the dems play to half empty halls.

And yet Trump lags badly in the polls. Hmmmnnn.

To paraphrase Professor Norpoth I wouldn't trust any media, pundits or current horse-race polls to predict this election right now. Polls are of little use until about September. Even then, some get it wrong. As in 2012 or 2004. Winning primaries is a sign that a candidate has a favorable image. Whatever past gaffes or scandals might affect a candidate have been absorbed into that image by then. Presidential elections are decided by performance in office, demand for change, and personal qualities of the two major party candidates. Right now, the Obama record is not good enough to help Hillary get a 3rd term, as it were. I see a strong groundswell for change (Trump and Sanders appeal to that). Bernie's strong showing in Democratic primaries is a sign of disenchantment with the incumbent party among Democrats.

TOPPING

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Yay

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Forecasting a landslide for Remain then?

A landslide for ARSE followers to be sure .... and my ARSE4US to follow later in the year.

You certainly can't have too much ARSE ....

Let me help quell the tremulousness:

Leave: 37
Remain: 63

That could easily happen.

And we will deserve everything we get.

It will be analagous to May. On the way to the polls, all the rhetoric, the braggadocio, the cry freedom will evaporate and what will be left will be an ooh-er. Doubts will multiply and Leave will come to be seen as a playground fantasy, best kept away from grown-ups and the polling booth.

Now, there are very many good reasons to vote Leave but, sadly, the Great British Public simply doesn't have the time or appetite to investigate the pros or cons in either case.

The EU ref came as a result firstly of UKIP (well done them, a bit like the success of a male praying mantis, that said...) and also, of Cons MPs. That is not enough to top 40% IMO.

rcs1000

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.

Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.

Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.

UKIP has suspended Suzanne Evans? Unbelievable.

MaxPB

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.

Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.

Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.

Banks, UKIP exec are both just Nigel's mouthpieces.

Banks speaks for nobody but Banks.

You're simply making things up.

No, you are simply denying a very obvious fact that Nigel is losing us Votes. Just like any CEO, we can only judge him by his latest actions. Nigel may have been instrumental in getting the vote by forcing the issue with Tory MPs and Dave, but in order to win we need to be ruthless and drop the dead weight. Nigel is dead weight. If UKIP want to have him back after the referendum then that's up to them, I couldn't care less.

logical_song

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.

Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.

Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.

Banks, UKIP exec are both just Nigel's mouthpieces.

Banks speaks for nobody but Banks.

You're simply making things up.

No, you are simply denying a very obvious fact that Nigel is losing us Votes. Just like any CEO, we can only judge him by his latest actions. Nigel may have been instrumental in getting the vote by forcing the issue with Tory MPs and Dave, but in order to win we need to be ruthless and drop the dead weight. Nigel is dead weight. If UKIP want to have him back after the referendum then that's up to them, I couldn't care less.

Keep it up you 'Leavers' ;-)

FrancisUrquhart

Dave looking stressed on his hols. Perhaps he just logged on to PB and saw the polling.

NickPalmer

justin124 said:

'TBH I think the Conservatives should be rather relieved their ratings are holding up close to GE levels. '

It often takes a week to ten days for the full effect to filter through.

The sample was 19-21 March, i.e. mostly before the IDS resignation. I'd assume that Corbyn's bounce reflected what was generally seen as a fairly focused attack on the Budget. It comes handily for the Mayoral election, where Goldsmith has been campaigning almost exclusively on "don't vote for Khan - he's Corbyn's man".

Incidentally,rather than EU withdrawal, the chart on the last thread from Sam Coates (credit TC PoliticalBetting) suggests an attractive alternative: couldn't we ask UKIP voters plus Express and Mail readers to withdraw to East Anglia?

TheScreamingEagles

Slightly tangentially, a few weeks ago Alastair Meeks and I suspected that whomever the electoral commission appoints as the Official Leave group, the losing side might take it to judicial review.

Given Arron Banks actions today, that seems very likely if Leave.EU/Grassroots out don't get it.

We might not get an Official Leave group until the start of May and that's got to be good news for Remain.

rcs1000

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Will your ARSE have a turnout figure?

Is the hardest thing to call about this referendum

For me it determines the result but I do not see a way of forecasting it that is distinguishable from Voodoo.

100% agree, is why I need to see JackW's turnout projection.

JackW is the Kim Kardashian of the polling world.

Is that a reference to the size of his ARSE?