Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation EURef phone poll follows ComRes and has reduced t

24

Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!
  • rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am .... :smiley:

    Will your ARSE have a turnout figure?

    Is the hardest thing to call about this referendum
    For me it determines the result but I do not see a way of forecasting it that is distinguishable from Voodoo.
    100% agree, is why I need to see JackW's turnout projection.

    JackW is the Kim Kardashian of the polling world.
    Is that a reference to the size of his ARSE?
    No, all to do with the interest their arses generate
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!

    You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

    It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.
    You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

    I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.
    Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.
    I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

    TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

    By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

    Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.
    Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.

    Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.

    UKIP has suspended Suzanne Evans? Unbelievable.
    Yes, I think Davis and Bone should welcome her into the awkward squad and get her to run as a Tory in 2020.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!

    You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
    I'm going to bed now. Stop talking about booze.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2016
    Mass rugby punch up between Royal Navy and French Navy

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/12203069/Mass-rugby-punch-up-between-Royal-Navy-and-French-navy.html

    So who called who a Gypsy Boy then...
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    justin124 said:

    'TBH I think the Conservatives should be rather relieved their ratings are holding up close to GE levels. '

    It often takes a week to ten days for the full effect to filter through.

    The sample was 19-21 March, i.e. mostly before the IDS resignation. I'd assume that Corbyn's bounce reflected what was generally seen as a fairly focused attack on the Budget. It comes handily for the Mayoral election, where Goldsmith has been campaigning almost exclusively on "don't vote for Khan - he's Corbyn's man".

    Incidentally,rather than EU withdrawal, the chart on the last thread from Sam Coates (credit TC PoliticalBetting) suggests an attractive alternative: couldn't we ask UKIP voters plus Express and Mail readers to withdraw to East Anglia?
    yes - If the Londoners and Guardian readers withdraw to Molenbeek.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

    It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.
    You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

    I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.
    Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.
    I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

    TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

    By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

    Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.
    Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.

    Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.

    UKIP has suspended Suzanne Evans? Unbelievable.
    It does seem extraordinary
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Slightly tangentially, a few weeks ago Alastair Meeks and I suspected that whomever the electoral commission appoints as the Official Leave group, the losing side might take it to judicial review.

    Given Arron Banks actions today, that seems very likely if Leave.EU/Grassroots out don't get it.

    We might not get an Official Leave group until the start of May and that's got to be good news for Remain.


    There'll still be a official leave group until he gets it overturned.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Max, just returned and seen that post.

    For ****'s sake. I hope the teams boycott the whole qualifying session, and instead P3 times have to be used. [Very unlikely].
  • Slightly tangentially, a few weeks ago Alastair Meeks and I suspected that whomever the electoral commission appoints as the Official Leave group, the losing side might take it to judicial review.

    Given Arron Banks actions today, that seems very likely if Leave.EU/Grassroots out don't get it.

    We might not get an Official Leave group until the start of May and that's got to be good news for Remain.


    There'll still be a official leave group until he gets it overturned.

    They could apply for an injunction stopping the official group doing anything until the after the judicial review
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!

    You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
    I maybe be permenantly drinking from 24th June 2016 onwards until..who knows?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

    It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.
    You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

    I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.
    Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.
    I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

    TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

    By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

    Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.
    Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.

    Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.

    Banks, UKIP exec are both just Nigel's mouthpieces.
    Banks speaks for nobody but Banks.

    You're simply making things up.
    No, you are simply denying a very obvious fact that Nigel is losing us Votes. Just like any CEO, we can only judge him by his latest actions. Nigel may have been instrumental in getting the vote by forcing the issue with Tory MPs and Dave, but in order to win we need to be ruthless and drop the dead weight. Nigel is dead weight. If UKIP want to have him back after the referendum then that's up to them, I couldn't care less.
    I repeat, there is absolutely no evidence that Farage is losing votes for Leave. You don't like him, nor do plenty of others, the same applies to every well know politician.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!

    It's three in the afternoon here, celebrating Easter a bit early?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited March 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!

    You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
    I maybe be permenantly drinking from 24th June 2016 onwards until..who knows?
    Until your holiday, they won't let you board the plane pissed.

    Trust me, you don't want to end up any no fly lists.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Slightly tangentially, a few weeks ago Alastair Meeks and I suspected that whomever the electoral commission appoints as the Official Leave group, the losing side might take it to judicial review.

    Given Arron Banks actions today, that seems very likely if Leave.EU/Grassroots out don't get it.

    We might not get an Official Leave group until the start of May and that's got to be good news for Remain.


    There'll still be a official leave group until he gets it overturned.

    They could apply for an injunction stopping the official group doing anything until the after the judicial review

    They can apply.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    In order for Leave to win I think three things need to happen:

    (1) The EU needs to be a clear and present economic basket case (look at polling on the EU in 2011 at the height of the eurozone crisis)
    (2) We need to have an oven ready Leave proposal (preferably pre-negotiated and ratified) on the table to vote for
    (3) We need a Leave PM advocating it

    At the moment we've got 50% of one, don't have two (even though I think the Government know very well what they'd do) and certainly not three, but we could have via a new Tory leader

    It may be that all three fall into place over the next 10 years but not if the issue has been closed down for a generation.

    An EU post of yours that I entirely agree with.

    2 is the key, I think, but, of course, you can't have 2 without 3.

    With that said, I think Leave could win without these things (so I might disagree there). I think that with them Leave would win easily.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

    It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.
    You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

    I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.
    Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.
    I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

    TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

    By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

    Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.
    Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.

    Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.

    UKIP has suspended Suzanne Evans? Unbelievable.
    Yes, I think Davis and Bone should welcome her into the awkward squad and get her to run as a Tory in 2020.
    Sometimes I think that Farage is a plant for Remain.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2016
    For those who missed it before..

    Vegetarian Jeremy Corbyn attends British Kebab Awards as he calls on nation to eat salad with them

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12203045/Vegetarian-Jeremy-Corbyn-attends-British-Kebab-Awards-as-he-calls-on-nation-to-eat-salad-with-them.html

    The Daily Mash are going to be put out of business by the genuine newspapers if Corbyn becomes PM.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Slightly tangentially, a few weeks ago Alastair Meeks and I suspected that whomever the electoral commission appoints as the Official Leave group, the losing side might take it to judicial review.

    Given Arron Banks actions today, that seems very likely if Leave.EU/Grassroots out don't get it.

    We might not get an Official Leave group until the start of May and that's got to be good news for Remain.

    I'm hoping for late June.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!

    You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
    I doubt I'll complete a bottle. ;)

    It was my b'day yesterday, and I wanted my first drink to be a b'day drink, but headaches stopped me. Today I'm headache free (so far!), and Mrs J is off work ill, so I thought opening the bottle was in order.

    Probably not medically advisable, but f'it.

    As an aside, we've worked out that there hasn't been a single day this year when one of the three of us hasn't been ill. Can we just forget 2016 so far? :(
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!

    You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
    I maybe be permenantly drinking from 24th June 2016 onwards until..who knows?
    Until your holiday, they won't let you board the plane pissed.

    Trust me, you don't want to end up any no fly lists.
    It's funny. I get absolutely no pleasure out of air travel these days, which wasn't always the case.

    On the other hand, I find travelling by train an absolute delight.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!

    You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
    I maybe be permenantly drinking from 24th June 2016 onwards until..who knows?
    Until your holiday, they won't let you board the plane pissed.

    Trust me, you don't want to end up any no fly lists.
    A former partner of mine had same name and birth date as somebody on a US list...oh what fun we had flying into the US. Might as well have booked ahead for a trip to the special place.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited March 2016
    National - Monmouth Uni

    Clinton 48 .. Trump 38
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 40
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 45

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/monmouth-university-24144
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited March 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!

    You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
    I doubt I'll complete a bottle. ;)

    It was my b'day yesterday, and I wanted my first drink to be a b'day drink, but headaches stopped me. Today I'm headache free (so far!), and Mrs J is off work ill, so I thought opening the bottle was in order.

    Probably not medically advisable, but f'it.

    As an aside, we've worked out that there hasn't been a single day this year when one of the three of us hasn't been ill. Can we just forget 2016 so far? :(
    How are you getting on? You were having some concentration / memory problems a couple of weeks ago, I think?

    And Happy Birthday!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Wanderer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!

    You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
    I doubt I'll complete a bottle. ;)

    It was my b'day yesterday, and I wanted my first drink to be a b'day drink, but headaches stopped me. Today I'm headache free (so far!), and Mrs J is off work ill, so I thought opening the bottle was in order.

    Probably not medically advisable, but f'it.

    As an aside, we've worked out that there hasn't been a single day this year when one of the three of us hasn't been ill. Can we just forget 2016 so far? :(
    How are you getting on? You were having some concentration / memory problems a couple of weeks ago, I think?

    And Happy Birthday!
    The stress of the EU referendum affects is in different ways
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    I repeat, there is absolutely no evidence that Farage is losing votes for Leave. You don't like him, nor do plenty of others, the same applies to every well know politician.

    I repeat you just don't want to see it because you are a supporter of Farage. As I said, I didn't really care about him before he started bollocksing up the Leave campaign and I think he played an important role in getting Dave and the rest of the Tory party into giving us a referendum. I'm not anti-Farage like some people, I like that he is able to speak his mind, even if sometimes what he says is insensitive or not PC. He is still dragging down the Leave campaign and needs to take a step back.

    As for evidence, inviting Galloway onto the stage as some prominent Leaver was a huge mistake. He is poison to middle England and the BBC have decided to up the ante by including Galloway in their list of people to call up to represent Leave.

    As Rob says below, sometimes it feels like he is a Remain plant. Gets us a vote then ensures it is in favour of Remain to shut down the debate for 15-20 years.
  • I'm quite staunchly in the Remain camp, but Danny Hannan puts forward the most eloquent case for leaving. He and his type need to be more prominent in the debate.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited March 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!

    You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
    I maybe be permenantly drinking from 24th June 2016 onwards until..who knows?
    Until your holiday, they won't let you board the plane pissed.

    Trust me, you don't want to end up any no fly lists.
    A former partner of mine had same name and birth date as somebody on a US list...oh what fun we had flying into the US. Might as well have booked ahead for a trip to the special place.
    There was a terrorist out there whose used an alias that is very similar to my name.

    I'm a nervous flyer and naturally sarcastic, so it can get messy.

    Fortunately most of the staff I have to deal with are fine. Best comment

    "Terrorists don't fly first class, nor do they bring along their girlfriend, and parents, you're fine to fly"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Before I go, I'd like to mention that Horizon on BBC2 last night was actually pretty decent, for the first time in a while. It is well worth catching up on via iPlayer if you can stand a certain amount of sensationalism.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!

    You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
    I maybe be permenantly drinking from 24th June 2016 onwards until..who knows?
    Until your holiday, they won't let you board the plane pissed.

    Trust me, you don't want to end up any no fly lists.
    A few years back I sailed to Dublin on a tall ship. The crew all disembarked and went into a hotel to get drunk. That evening I went to the airport with the ship's cook who was, to put it politely, out his tree. I kept well away from him at the airport because I was convinced he would not be allowed to board as his behaviour was utterly obnoxious.

    He was allowed to fly. When we landed at Southampton he greeted Mrs J and she nearly fainted from the smell as he embraced her (five days of not showering on ship, plus the alcohol).

    Then she met me ... ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    I'm quite staunchly in the Remain camp, but Danny Hannan puts forward the most eloquent case for leaving. He and his type need to be more prominent in the debate.

    Him and Suzanne Evans are the stars of the Leave camp. Yet Farage puts George Galloway on stage. Unbelievable.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    For those who missed it before..

    Vegetarian Jeremy Corbyn attends British Kebab Awards as he calls on nation to eat salad with them

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12203045/Vegetarian-Jeremy-Corbyn-attends-British-Kebab-Awards-as-he-calls-on-nation-to-eat-salad-with-them.html

    The Daily Mash are going to be put out of business by the genuine newspapers if Corbyn becomes PM.

    This is a bit silly - it's the kind of routine engagement that you get booked for weeks in advance; if he'd declined because he's a vegetarian he'd have been criticised for that; if he'd talked about the Budget at a kebab celebration, likewise.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    For those who missed it before..

    Vegetarian Jeremy Corbyn attends British Kebab Awards as he calls on nation to eat salad with them

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12203045/Vegetarian-Jeremy-Corbyn-attends-British-Kebab-Awards-as-he-calls-on-nation-to-eat-salad-with-them.html

    The Daily Mash are going to be put out of business by the genuine newspapers if Corbyn becomes PM.

    This is a bit silly - it's the kind of routine engagement that you get booked for weeks in advance; if he'd declined because he's a vegetarian he'd have been criticised for that; if he'd talked about the Budget at a kebab celebration, likewise.
    That's surely a "send someone from the neutral not negative list" event.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    MaxPB said:

    Before I go, I'd like to mention that Horizon on BBC2 last night was actually pretty decent, for the first time in a while. It is well worth catching up on via iPlayer if you can stand a certain amount of sensationalism.

    What was it on?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Wanderer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!

    You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
    I doubt I'll complete a bottle. ;)

    It was my b'day yesterday, and I wanted my first drink to be a b'day drink, but headaches stopped me. Today I'm headache free (so far!), and Mrs J is off work ill, so I thought opening the bottle was in order.

    Probably not medically advisable, but f'it.

    As an aside, we've worked out that there hasn't been a single day this year when one of the three of us hasn't been ill. Can we just forget 2016 so far? :(
    How are you getting on? You were having some concentration / memory problems a couple of weeks ago, I think?

    And Happy Birthday!
    Thanks. Still getting blindingly bad headaches, and my short-term memory's f'ed. But at least I've got an excuse when I 'forget' to do things around the house now...

    "Did I say I'd vacuum dear? So sorry..." :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Before I go, I'd like to mention that Horizon on BBC2 last night was actually pretty decent, for the first time in a while. It is well worth catching up on via iPlayer if you can stand a certain amount of sensationalism.

    What was it on?
    How to control gravitational force and the efforts that have gone into it in the past and what the current ideas behind it are. Concepts like negative matter are touched on as well in an accessible way.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Jessop, d'you know if they might yet recover, or is the situation pretty much fixed?

    Hope the pain eases, and your memory improves.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Test massage
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Sadiq has spent the last few months publicly distancing himself from Team Corbyn for electoral reasons, yet the actual evidence shows the opposite is true. Last weekend the far-left Corbynista group People’s Momentum held a “Khanpaigning” event in the capital, followed by a ‘Jez We Khan’ party hosted by Owen Jones and top Corbynista MP Clive Lewis. Tonight Momentum are hitting the phones for Sadiq at his Westminster HQ:

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/24/momentum-campaigning-hard-for-khan/

  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    justin124 said:

    'TBH I think the Conservatives should be rather relieved their ratings are holding up close to GE levels. '

    It often takes a week to ten days for the full effect to filter through.

    The sample was 19-21 March, i.e. mostly before the IDS resignation. I'd assume that Corbyn's bounce reflected what was generally seen as a fairly focused attack on the Budget. It comes handily for the Mayoral election, where Goldsmith has been campaigning almost exclusively on "don't vote for Khan - he's Corbyn's man".

    Incidentally,rather than EU withdrawal, the chart on the last thread from Sam Coates (credit TC PoliticalBetting) suggests an attractive alternative: couldn't we ask UKIP voters plus Express and Mail readers to withdraw to East Anglia?
    IDS resigned on the 18th so the fieldwork was in the immediate aftermath. Imo the main driver of this is Tory mud-wrestling.
  • FWIW 2 to 3 months prior to the Independence referendum which pollster had the most accurate forecast of the lead that No would eventually get?
    Answer ICM online in July 2014 with 11%.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'negative matter'

    Is that what Jeremy Corbyn is made of?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Re Daniel Hannan, I think he is extremely good at putting a persuasive case for Leave to AB voters, but not so much to the rest of the population. Which is fine, because we need people who can appeal to different sections of the population.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I'm quite staunchly in the Remain camp, but Danny Hannan puts forward the most eloquent case for leaving. He and his type need to be more prominent in the debate.

    Him and Suzanne Evans are the stars of the Leave camp. Yet Farage puts George Galloway on stage. Unbelievable.
    You might think that Farage does not want to lose his wages as an MEP along with the other benefits of a chaffeur driven car etc etc.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic:

    Just having my first alcohol of the year!

    Whish me lhuck!

    You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
    I doubt I'll complete a bottle. ;)

    It was my b'day yesterday, and I wanted my first drink to be a b'day drink, but headaches stopped me. Today I'm headache free (so far!), and Mrs J is off work ill, so I thought opening the bottle was in order.

    Probably not medically advisable, but f'it.

    As an aside, we've worked out that there hasn't been a single day this year when one of the three of us hasn't been ill. Can we just forget 2016 so far? :(
    How are you getting on? You were having some concentration / memory problems a couple of weeks ago, I think?

    And Happy Birthday!
    Thanks. Still getting blindingly bad headaches, and my short-term memory's f'ed. But at least I've got an excuse when I 'forget' to do things around the house now...

    "Did I say I'd vacuum dear? So sorry..." :)
    It sounds very unpleasant. I hope it improves soon.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Amber Rudd-brilliant!

    Made my weekend!
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    For those who missed it before..

    Vegetarian Jeremy Corbyn attends British Kebab Awards as he calls on nation to eat salad with them

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12203045/Vegetarian-Jeremy-Corbyn-attends-British-Kebab-Awards-as-he-calls-on-nation-to-eat-salad-with-them.html

    The Daily Mash are going to be put out of business by the genuine newspapers if Corbyn becomes PM.

    This is a bit silly - it's the kind of routine engagement that you get booked for weeks in advance; if he'd declined because he's a vegetarian he'd have been criticised for that; if he'd talked about the Budget at a kebab celebration, likewise.
    He should have talked about vegetarian kebabs rather than falafel. Major error of judgement.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2016

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

    It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.
    You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

    I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.
    Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.
    I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

    TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

    By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

    Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.
    Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.

    Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.

    Banks, UKIP exec are both just Nigel's mouthpieces.
    Banks speaks for nobody but Banks.

    You're simply making things up.
    No, you are simply denying a very obvious fact that Nigel is losing us Votes. Just like any CEO, we can only judge him by his latest actions. Nigel may have been instrumental in getting the vote by forcing the issue with Tory MPs and Dave, but in order to win we need to be ruthless and drop the dead weight. Nigel is dead weight. If UKIP want to have him back after the referendum then that's up to them, I couldn't care less.
    I repeat, there is absolutely no evidence that Farage is losing votes for Leave. You don't like him, nor do plenty of others, the same applies to every well know politician.
    At last someone stands up for Farage the one man wrecking ball who stops all hope of having a well run UKIP and blocks a single united LEAVE campaign.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    For those who missed it before..

    Vegetarian Jeremy Corbyn attends British Kebab Awards as he calls on nation to eat salad with them

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12203045/Vegetarian-Jeremy-Corbyn-attends-British-Kebab-Awards-as-he-calls-on-nation-to-eat-salad-with-them.html

    The Daily Mash are going to be put out of business by the genuine newspapers if Corbyn becomes PM.

    This is a bit silly - it's the kind of routine engagement that you get booked for weeks in advance; if he'd declined because he's a vegetarian he'd have been criticised for that; if he'd talked about the Budget at a kebab celebration, likewise.
    Truly, he can doeth no wrong.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    RodCrosby said:
    Worth 6 less delegates than Puerto Rico though :p
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    RodCrosby said:
    Yes. Kasich is not going to be impressed with the rally-round-Ted theory.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Until very recently, Belgium's intelligence agency had just 600 staff, about a third of the number of the neighbouring Netherlands - a country that is not much bigger and has fewer home-grown jihadists who have gone to fight in Syria and Iraq.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-eu-35891078
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm quite staunchly in the Remain camp, but Danny Hannan puts forward the most eloquent case for leaving. He and his type need to be more prominent in the debate.

    Him and Suzanne Evans are the stars of the Leave camp. Yet Farage puts George Galloway on stage. Unbelievable.
    George Galloway as special guest star is still like a crazed fever dream to me.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    FWIW 2 to 3 months prior to the Independence referendum which pollster had the most accurate forecast of the lead that No would eventually get?
    Answer ICM online in July 2014 with 11%.

    That was with a monstrous 21 percent don't know.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2016
    Uncompromising, fearless and divisive, Labour's new spin doctor Seumas Milne has taken his hard-left ideology into the heart of Westminster. But is Jeremy Corbyn's comrade now calling the shots?

    http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/seumas-milne-labour-spin-doctor-jeremy-corbyn

    Staines little minion has been doing his homework on Milne.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    17 are bound to the winner, but 54 are not, although they are supposed to take cognizance of the result...
  • LondonBobLondonBob Posts: 467
    RodCrosby said:
    Looks as reliable as some of those Arizona polls, PA will be an even easier win than AZ was for Trump.

    Wisconsin is the only one that matters at the moment, could go either way.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    LondonBob said:

    taffys said:

    JackW said:

    Albert Hunt in "Bloomberg" assesses whether Trump will be the Goldwater/McGovern of the 2016 POTUS contest :

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-23/the-case-for-trump-over-clinton-is-a-loser

    Something smells here, and it smells big time. Republican caucuses and primaries have record turnouts whilst the dems are completely in the doldrums. People queue for hours to get into Trump meetings whilst the dems play to half empty halls.

    And yet Trump lags badly in the polls. Hmmmnnn.
    To paraphrase Professor Norpoth I wouldn't trust any media, pundits or current horse-race polls to predict this election right now. Polls are of little use until about September. Even then, some get it wrong. As in 2012 or 2004. Winning primaries is a sign that a candidate has a favorable image. Whatever past gaffes or scandals might affect a candidate have been absorbed into that image by then. Presidential elections are decided by performance in office, demand for change, and personal qualities of the two major party candidates. Right now, the Obama record is not good enough to help Hillary get a 3rd term, as it were. I see a strong groundswell for change (Trump and Sanders appeal to that). Bernie's strong showing in Democratic primaries is a sign of disenchantment with the incumbent party among Democrats.
    Obama led Romney on average at this stage and Bush led Kerry
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2016
    Indigo said:

    Hannan on Project Fear

    Somebody actually arguing without the hyerbole, clearly and calmly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2016
    Its cos Belgium racist innit...

    Molenbeek's gangster jihadis

    http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35890960
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2016
    Disgraced footballer Adam Johnson was arrested over possession of animal pornography, it can be revealed for the first time today after he was jailed for six years.

    The 28-year-old was then re-arrested on suspicion of possessing extreme pornography but was not charged with the offence as the police investigation focused on his meetings with the girl.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3507418/Shamed-footballer-Adam-Johnson-leaves-home-time-ahead-sentencing.html
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:


    He's had her suspended from the party on a technicality and won't be nom!ating her as a candidate for the London Assembly. Her offence appears to be supporting Vote Leave not Leave.EU.

    Of it may be internal UK UP issues of which I'm not aware, but hardly symptomatic of peace and harmony

    UKIP is in a mess, of that there is no doubt. But for people to suggest Farage is a liability for Leave is simply untrue, there is no evidence to support it.
    Farage has an unrivaled appeal to a certain group of voters, but also has strong negatives among many others. His supporters are not sufficient to win it for Leave on its own. He should have an important role by the be leading the campaign. Unfortunately he appears unwilling to accept a role of this nature. The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he promotes is not helpful to leave.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    test massage
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Here's prediction: a book will be published within the next 12 months. It may be a political bestseller.

    It will be called: "How Leave blew it: the inside story of the British 2016 EU referendum campaign"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Indigo said:

    Hannan on Project Fear

    Somebody actually arguing without the hyerbole, clearly and calmly.
    Hannan is just as much a utopianist as the most committed Europhile. His vision of all the countries of Europe just getting along with each other without regard to national interest is a fantasy.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Here's prediction: a book will be published within the next 12 months. It may be a political bestseller.

    It will be called: "How Leave blew it: the inside story of the British 2016 EU referendum campaign"

    Suppose Leave win. Things like suing each other and randomly inviting George Galloway will be eagerly studied by aspiring political strategists.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    test massage

    Who do you want to try out your massage on?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2016

    Indigo said:

    Hannan on Project Fear

    Somebody actually arguing without the hyerbole, clearly and calmly.
    Hannan is just as much a utopianist as the most committed Europhile. His vision of all the countries of Europe just getting along with each other without regard to national interest is a fantasy.
    I didn't say I believe his vision, but my point was he managed to make an argument for one side without resorting to all the immigrants are coming is we stay, no all the immigrants will come if we leave, the terrorist will / won't come...3 million jobs will go...etc etc etc which has been the level of the debate so far.
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited March 2016
    What effect will the referendum result have on British emigration? Currently about 0.5% of the population skedaddle each year.
    Charles said:

    The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he [Farage] promotes is not helpful to leave.

    Who says? For many, immigration is the key issue. Leave have got Galloway to win votes from those who are pro-immigration. Contrary to what some have argued, Galloway is a big net gain for the Leave campaign, and he is respected by many of the 2.7 million Muslims in the country. He doesn't have so much respect among those who aren't Muslims, but few are going to vote Remain just because he's involved with Leave.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Here's prediction: a book will be published within the next 12 months. It may be a political bestseller.

    It will be called: "How Leave blew it: the inside story of the British 2016 EU referendum campaign"

    Perchance, will the author be Nigel Farage..?
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Interesting public meeting in Bedford.

    'Are you British?" Five people from the 200 strong (segregated) audience indicate agreement.

    Still, they're happy with Dave Hodgson, the Liberal Democrat Mayor of Bedford. So that's alright.

    http://tinyurl.com/ow9prdn
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Be LEAVE

    We all know that's what that message really was....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2016

    Here's prediction: a book will be published within the next 12 months. It may be a political bestseller.

    It will be called: "How Leave blew it: the inside story of the British 2016 EU referendum campaign"

    Perchance, will the author be Nigel Farage..?
    No Farage's book will be "how the media, vote rigging, illegal immigrants stole the EU referendum...and caused me to get stuck in a massive traffic jam"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2016
    shiney2 said:

    Interesting public meeting in Bedford.

    'Are you British?" Five people from the 200 strong (segregated) audience indicate agreement.

    Still, they're happy with Dave Hodgson, the Liberal Democrat Mayor of Bedford. So that's alright.

    http://tinyurl.com/ow9prdn

    "When Dr. Haitham al-Haddad, who was introduced as a scholar of “Islamic sciences”, asked the room if attendees were British, there was a long pause and an uncomfortable murmuring. Dr. Haddad has previously made deeply disparaging remarks about Jewish people, and is even claimed to have said that the late Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden would go to heaven."

    Wonder if he has ever been arrested for inciting racial hatred like the moron from Croydon has?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Here's prediction: a book will be published within the next 12 months. It may be a political bestseller.

    It will be called: "How Leave blew it: the inside story of the British 2016 EU referendum campaign"

    "Why didn't they ask Evans?"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Wanderer said:

    Here's prediction: a book will be published within the next 12 months. It may be a political bestseller.

    It will be called: "How Leave blew it: the inside story of the British 2016 EU referendum campaign"

    Suppose Leave win. Things like suing each other and randomly inviting George Galloway will be eagerly studied by aspiring political strategists.
    It's an interesting feature of this campaign that a large portion of both the Leave and Remain sides are convinced they'll lose.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Royale, probably indicates both sets of supporters are aware how bad their campaigns appear to be.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Israelis believe that Palestinian Muslim youth are being radicalized by Islamic groups through online incitement campaigns.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsxAoNPJtog

    Or maybe they got radicalized by their treatment at the hands of the Israelis?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/11000115/Right-wing-Israelis-celebrate-the-deaths-of-Gazan-children.html
  • Betting tip. Put your money on Belarus winning Eurovision

    Belarus’s act Ivan wants to perform naked while flanked by wolves…

    http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/23/eurovision-song-contest-2016-belaruss-act-ivan-wants-to-perform-naked-while-flanked-by-wolves-5771408/#ixzz43q99yrAM
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Roger said:

    Israelis believe that Palestinian Muslim youth are being radicalized by Islamic groups through online incitement campaigns.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsxAoNPJtog

    Or maybe they got radicalized by their treatment at the hands of the Israelis?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/11000115/Right-wing-Israelis-celebrate-the-deaths-of-Gazan-children.html
    You obviously didn't watch the film....
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    Wanderer said:

    Suppose Leave win. Things like suing each other and randomly inviting George Galloway will be eagerly studied by aspiring political strategists.

    When they're divided, you chide; when right Leaveniks and left Leaveniks put aside their differences, you chide. They can't do anything right, in your book, can they?

  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    John_N said:

    Wanderer said:

    Suppose Leave win. Things like suing each other and randomly inviting George Galloway will be eagerly studied by aspiring political strategists.

    When they're divided, you chide; when right Leaveniks and left Leaveniks put aside their differences, you chide. They can't do anything right, in your book, can they?

    Eh?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Betting tip. Put your money on Belarus winning Eurovision

    Belarus’s act Ivan wants to perform naked while flanked by wolves…

    http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/23/eurovision-song-contest-2016-belaruss-act-ivan-wants-to-perform-naked-while-flanked-by-wolves-5771408/#ixzz43q99yrAM

    The Eurovision circus turning up in Minsk next year would be fun. :)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    John_N said:

    What effect will the referendum result have on British emigration? Currently about 0.5% of the population skedaddle each year.

    Charles said:

    The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he [Farage] promotes is not helpful to leave.

    Who says? For many, immigration is the key issue. Leave have got Galloway to win votes from those who are pro-immigration. Contrary to what some have argued, Galloway is a big net gain for the Leave campaign, and he is respected by many of the 2.7 million Muslims in the country. He doesn't have so much respect among those who aren't Muslims, but few are going to vote Remain just because he's involved with Leave.

    I think he's a busted flush with all communities, frankly. 44% of London voters come from ethnic minorities and 39% were born abroad. Galloway's last poll share rating was 1%.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    O/T. Cricket: England Women beat West Indies Woemn by 1 run off the last ball. Last pair at the wicket, last ball was a bye!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Betting tip. Put your money on Belarus winning Eurovision

    Belarus’s act Ivan wants to perform naked while flanked by wolves…

    http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/23/eurovision-song-contest-2016-belaruss-act-ivan-wants-to-perform-naked-while-flanked-by-wolves-5771408/#ixzz43q99yrAM

    I have my £2 on at 770.0
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:

    Here's prediction: a book will be published within the next 12 months. It may be a political bestseller.

    It will be called: "How Leave blew it: the inside story of the British 2016 EU referendum campaign"

    Suppose Leave win. Things like suing each other and randomly inviting George Galloway will be eagerly studied by aspiring political strategists.
    It's an interesting feature of this campaign that a large portion of both the Leave and Remain sides are convinced they'll lose.
    I think it's because one side or the other seems to monopolise each advantage. Leave has passion, Remain has organisation; Leave has grassroots, Remain has the establishment and so on. So, it's quite easy to survey the scene and see only the advantages for the other side and go into a "game over" Aliens-style meltdown. That's my excuse anyway.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    edited March 2016

    Betting tip. Put your money on Belarus winning Eurovision

    Belarus’s act Ivan wants to perform naked while flanked by wolves…

    http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/23/eurovision-song-contest-2016-belaruss-act-ivan-wants-to-perform-naked-while-flanked-by-wolves-5771408/#ixzz43q99yrAM

    760/1 on Betfair
    Edit: I see Pulpstar has already beaten me to it
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: A shame not a single opposition MP bothered to go to @JohnnyMercerMP's debate on veterans care before Easter recess. https://t.co/zt3GEo9MtV
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Pulpstar said:

    Betting tip. Put your money on Belarus winning Eurovision

    Belarus’s act Ivan wants to perform naked while flanked by wolves…

    http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/23/eurovision-song-contest-2016-belaruss-act-ivan-wants-to-perform-naked-while-flanked-by-wolves-5771408/#ixzz43q99yrAM

    I have my £2 on at 770.0
    I've followed you in. Go Belarus!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Tune in to LBC right now. Incredible live @IainDale interview with Suzanne Evans.

    @iainjwatson: 1/2 LBC's Iain Dale asks Suzanne Evans if her lawyer intended to put allegations that Nigel Farage beat his wife in her court challenge
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Afternoon all :)

    Not sure how much to read into the current polls. REMAIN has a reasonable lead with the phones, much more even online. Yet we still have three months to go which is an eternity. LEAVE has it to do but there's still time in which to do it.

    The Budget and IDS resignation has undoubtedly had an effect but it will need other things to sustain that effect. Governments survive these storms by basically governing quietly - doing nothing dramatic and, as the sign at the cobblers shop says "time wounds all heels".

    The reputation for governance takes a hit if gaffes and self-made crises become the norm rather than the exception. Some might then argue if the Government can't manage itself, how can it manage the country and as Major and Callaghan found out, nothing goes right and you're on the way out.

    Cameron is nowhere near that yet but a sense of being out of control of events is insidious and not always obvious.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Tune in to LBC right now. Incredible live @IainDale interview with Suzanne Evans.

    @iainjwatson: 1/2 LBC's Iain Dale asks Suzanne Evans if her lawyer intended to put allegations that Nigel Farage beat his wife in her court challenge

    She has an interesting lawyer...
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    taffys said:

    JackW said:

    Albert Hunt in "Bloomberg" assesses whether Trump will be the Goldwater/McGovern of the 2016 POTUS contest :

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-23/the-case-for-trump-over-clinton-is-a-loser

    Something smells here, and it smells big time. Republican caucuses and primaries have record turnouts whilst the dems are completely in the doldrums. People queue for hours to get into Trump meetings whilst the dems play to half empty halls.

    And yet Trump lags badly in the polls. Hmmmnnn.
    Turnout in primaries is driven by the closeness of the race and has been a poor indicator of the GE. The party with the highest turnout at the primaries has gone on to lose 50% of the generals. High GOP turnout could be equally motivated by people trying to stop Trump. He has largely come through up to now because the anti-Trump vote has been split between Cruz, Rubio & Katich.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Tune in to LBC right now. Incredible live @IainDale interview with Suzanne Evans.

    @iainjwatson: 1/2 LBC's Iain Dale asks Suzanne Evans if her lawyer intended to put allegations that Nigel Farage beat his wife in her court challenge

    She has an interesting lawyer...
    Sounds like she's been stitched up by her lawyer, feel very sorry for her.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    I'd actually planned to watch Question Time tonight (well, see how it started) but there isn't one on.

    Fiddlesticks.
This discussion has been closed.