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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EU referendum: A battle between the social classes
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EU referendum: A battle between the social classes
The above breakdown is from the latest ComRes referendum poll and shows how different socio-economic groups responded to the 16 word referendum question.
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BBC Parliament Channel - 8:20am - 20:00pm - 1966 General Election ..
Reminder 2 ... coming soon ..
25 hours 25 minutes 25 seconds
Conversely, 50% of 18-34 year olds voted, compared to 75% of 55+. That split favours Leave.
But the snobbery is still a factor, Exhibit 1. Matthew Parris on Clacton.
those classified as ‘C2DEs’ , that is those in working class occupations, were rather more likely to vote Yes than those in more middle class ABC1 jobs. According to Ashcroft, 44% of ABC1 voters voted Yes compared with 47% of C2DE ones. The gap in YouGov’s data is a little larger, with 41% of ABC1 and 50% of C2DE respondents saying the voted Yes.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/voted-yes-voted/
Among voters aged 55+, the figures should be 82% for AB voters, ranging down to 65% among DE voters.
The relationship is indirect and imperfect but the less clever will tend to earn fewer qualifications and end up in less-well-paid jobs, which is presumably a large part of the definition of "socioeconomic group".
Obviously, there's more to it than that. Two children, both with the same intelligence, one born in a sink estate and one born to a millionaire, are quite likely to remain in their social class for social factors - expectations, schooling, support, networks and so on - but the loose relationship between class and ability holds.
Not too surprised. Those currently doing well are less likely to welcome something which they see as a change to the status quo [even though that's also true of Remain].
Who paid Comres to produce this poll?
I would also reckon that the same people are also more in favour of joining the Euro than the average Brit.
Leaving may not mean that changes. But they worry that it might.
They are also less foreigner-afraid, as they will have some, or lots, of contact with very nice foreign-born middle-class people such as doctors and the like.
Hull 1 : 3 Chelsea .... Er ....
Polling companies are businesses, they're paid by customers to produce the right results, it seems plenty on here ignore or disregard that.
No idea of the veracity of this poll but it does confirm the attitude of the likes of Meeks.
B: 23%
C1: 29%
C2: 21%
D :15%
E: 8%
Source: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/DownloadPublication/1285_MediaCT_thoughtpiece_Social_Grade_July09_V3_WEB.pdf
Note that E apparently includes all state pensioners, but I suspect it means people relying only on state pension.
It's not actually in their interests to deliberately falsify results. Their reputation comes from their accuracy, and that is what is useful to their customers.
Now, what their customers ask them to ask is another matter.
How much do any of us trust polling companies at the moment?
Edit: thanks @NickPalmer for the numbers!
Immigration is undoubtedly good for the middle classes, less so if you're bobbing along the bottom.
The EU is not about immigration to me but it is to plenty of others.
Right or wrong polls influence people, always check who's paying.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1966
1) It's not true - their 'worth' lies in 'accuracy' - not 'keeping clients happy'
2) It's libellous - if by 'the right results' you mean 'the results the client wants' - but I'm sure you didn't mean that.....
Political polling makes up a small amount of the business that the companies do. Why would they trash their reputation by producing figures that are likely (in their opinion) to very publicly be proved false, for such little benefit?
I can imagine them being pretty motivated on this subject.
It won't be the whole story, and some people will look at larger issues. But what they think is best for them will always be at the back of their minds, and those larger issues might be skewed by that personal perspective.
However for many people, even self-interested reasons will be absent. It will be "I've always voted Conservative / Labour", and everything - good or bad - will be viewed through that prism. For some, the most that would happen is that they wouldn't vote rather than vote for another team.
The idea that many voters (even on here) calmly sit down, read the prospectuses and other information, analyse them and try to come up with a view of what is best for the country seems rather odd.
First of all, not at any stage have I suggested pollsters make things up. However, as you very well know, the wording of a question can lead to very different outcomes.
Incidentally, it was unanimous on here post GE that polling companies reputations WERE trashed.
Now wind your neck in.
If a pollster tells you that you're rubbish then do something about it. No-one's forcing you to publish the data.
Whether they are in actual real life affected negatively by EU membership is another story. By globalisation, perhaps, but probably not by EU membership.
I'm not a politician but if I commissioned a poll and it told me I was doing badly I would definitely keep that polling company on. If my campaign isn't working I need to know.
Most public political polls are performed by the media, and they need stories. But with four national parties, and natural deviation in polling results, there will almost always be some story for them, whether it is a Lib Dem bounce or a government decrease. But what they all want is the fabled, mythical crossover.
The credibility of party leaders plays a huge role too.
Economic self-interest is often as simple as whether the party seems like it could be trusted with a macroeconomic decisions.
Regarding bungs, giving them has less effect than taking them away.
Either that or you don't have the foggiest idea how businesses work.
Those poll numbers though.
#GE66 https://t.co/B5hxT56ySx
Yeah, that works.
After all, their client (a newspaper, I think) would have loved the resultant story. And most of us on her would have screamed "outlier!" and Basil would have got tired for nothing ...
#DidYouKnow, 1928 an Act was passed to create a fixed date for Easter but never implemented? https://t.co/z9SzFxdVWC https://t.co/BAei4Qn8ss
Yes, of course wording affects outcomes, as does differing methodologies - and those that are keen to see a certain outcome may well be attracted to companies whose questions and methodologies produce results favourable to their cause. However, that doesn't mean a company will necessarily accept a commission that they suspect will produce a skewed result. If they fear that the reputational damage would be greater than the profit from the survey, why would they?
Which polling companies, specifically, do you think have been producing inaccurate results to please which clients?
Or is this just a baseless smear from someone who might be thought a tad paranoid?
The cost of living in cities like London is genuinely absurd - but there is a reason that wages can rise so little and cost of living to rise so much, and thats the imported labour pool that's willing to live 6 to a room so beloved of the Daily Wail.
But - and its a very big But - the effect of reducing the labour pool by leaving the EU should be to force up wages. I get the impression that the Business-type Brexiters have the opposite in mind, seeing the EU as blocking their plans via red tape. A lot of C2DEs may be in for a nasty shock if they get their way.
The former want stories, therefore deviations from the current picture are valuable to them. But with four parties and the natural deviation in polling results, there will almost always be a story. Especially if they five down into subsamples, which they sometimes do.
The latter want to know the true position, so they can react. A false position is worse than useless as it may cause them to put resources in the wrong places.
There is a third category: Ashcroft polls. But I think we can ignore those as being useless ...
Look, polling companies are not dishonest, but they are businesses, like any other they rely on customers, revenue. If I, as a Leaver, hypothetically, pay them to produce a poll its in their interest to keep me happy in the hope of repeat business. They will word the question and speak to a certain type of person in order to placate me. Do you think they say to me:
Don't bother mate, you're a loser.
You do understand that, don't you? I mean how do you think PR companies and advertising agencies work?
I think blackburn63 needs to put up or shut up:
- Which polling company has asked a potentially leading EURef question
- Which polling company has asked the EU Ref question after asking other leading questions.
I'm sure we'll all welcome finding out.
1966 was the high watermark for popular music btw, according to the late, great Iain Mcdonald.
Pet Sounds, Revolver, Blonde en Blonde, Aftermath..... unbelievable year of creativity.
And the English won the World Cup. A good time to be alive.
I'll get my coat...
Up here in the North East I can predict who is going to be 'Leave' not because they are affected in any way, but just because they have said vaguely racist stuff in the past or bought the myths about Christmas being banned in schools - the 'this country's going to the dogs' crowd. Where I live you rarely see a foreigner, and particularly not Europeans. And yet, I expect the North East will have a pretty big Leave vote.
It's like how London, capital of immigration, is a UKIP-free zone while places like Hartlepool and the east coast are uber-UKIP.
If I had a pound for every time R&D or the Advertising Department would have fired the Consumer Research people for coming up with the 'wrong' result I'd be rich indeed.....
Try dealing with the message rather than the messenger, it'll prevent you looking like a whining little girl.
I still remember the local election results a few years ago. At about 2-3am they had Jeremy Vine doing some nonsense (I forget if it were the time Ming was portrayed as a rapper, or the cowboy horror).
It might be worth reading up on the BPC.
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/index.html
If I were a polling company I'd give my customer an honest assessment, but I'd also want repeat business.
Look, this is very straightforward, different firms produce different results - ever wondered why?
Love how the 1966 coverage just cut to a roving reporter in a phone box!
Mr. D, aye. Replacing Dimbleby with Edwards and ignoring Neil (whilst consigning Raworth to a giant map gimmick, last time at least) is daft.
I'm guessing your knowledge of polling and consumer research is, how shall we say.....'small base'......