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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron, surely, is more vulnerable at the moment than Corb

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron, surely, is more vulnerable at the moment than Corbyn

In the picture above are the latest William Hill odds on which of Cameron or Corbyn will stand down first. As can be seen the LAB leader is 4/6 to go first which I think is wrong.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    First!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    PB Tories 4 Corbyn rejoice!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Despite his recent ratings dip (which I suspect will be transient) Cameron stands head & shoulders above the alternatives - so logically the Tories should stick with him until things calm down. But we are talking about the Tory party....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Despite his recent ratings dip (which I suspect will be transient) Cameron stands head & shoulders above the alternatives - so logically the Tories should stick with him until things calm down. But we are talking about the Tory party....

    I think he is sensible for not going on and on. Not sure the announcement was best placed inside a soft interview, but there you go.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    RobD said:

    Despite his recent ratings dip (which I suspect will be transient) Cameron stands head & shoulders above the alternatives - so logically the Tories should stick with him until things calm down. But we are talking about the Tory party....

    I think he is sensible for not going on and on. Not sure the announcement was best placed inside a soft interview, but there you go.
    Agree he's sensible to step aside - but nearer the end of the Parliament than the beginning- and I think he's best placed to bring order to what will be a very fractious party.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    The referendum question is meaningless. Whatever the result, the Tories and their spin machine can interpret is any way they want.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited March 2016
    I notice, presumably out of blind loyalty to the cause, that OGH doesn't bring Tim Farron into the equation, despite his having been almost completely invisible since being elected as leader of his party on 16 July 2015.

    This is perhaps best illustrated when one googles "Liberal Democrats" and the very first entry which then appears, almost 11 months after last May's General Election is as follows:

    "Liberal Democrats www.libdems.org.uk/
    The official site of the Liberal Democrats, led by Nick Clegg. Includes news, campaigns, policies, conference information, biographies, email lists, items for your ..."

    On reflection however, Mike's probably right in his assessment, bearing in mind that invisible Tim has a maximum of only 7 possible challengers for the leadership, including the taxi driver, of whom six and a half have absolutely no chance of succeeding him. He is likely, therefore, to be around for a very, very long time.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    PClipp said:

    The referendum question is meaningless. Whatever the result, the Tories and their spin machine can interpret is any way they want.

    Only because LEAVE can't - or won't paint a simple unified picture of what LEAVE would look like. It's not the government's fault they are being given a blank sheet of paper in the event of a LEAVE vote.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    First ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown :

    160 minutes
  • JackW said:

    First ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown :

    160 minutes

    The nation awaits .....
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    PClipp said:

    The referendum question is meaningless. Whatever the result, the Tories and their spin machine can interpret is any way they want.

    No - even a retreat to EEA membership is a big improvement from the current situation. Only the government would have you think different.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    For the avoidance of doubt this is a two way market - Corbyn v Cameron. I think Mike is right about this, but it might mean tying your money up for three to four years.
  • Pretty much precisely what one would expect The Guardian to say and also probably a reasonably accurate assessment.
    Unfortunately, Dave made a huge error of judgement in terms of rushing through the renegotiation process, thereby severely limiting the prospect of achieving meaningful concessions from our EU partners. He then compounded that error by deciding to hold the referendum thereon just four months later ..... it's almost as if he viewed the entire business as being a rather unnecessary irritant, to be dispensed with asap.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Nicky Morgan to get all the teachers out for leave I see :p
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited March 2016
    runnymede said:

    PClipp said:

    The referendum question is meaningless. Whatever the result, the Tories and their spin machine can interpret is any way they want.

    No - even a retreat to EEA membership is a big improvement from the current situation. Only the government would have you think different.
    Not at all. As things stand, a vote for LEAVE can mean anything between EEA membership (as you say) and complete isolation. Who knows which of these Cameron would go for?

    So Ms Vance is also completely wrong. It is not up to the LEAVE campaign to say what LEAVE would mean. It is up to Mr Cameron.

    Likewise if we go for REMAIN. Will this mean a continuation of carping nagging from the sidelines, as at present, or will Cameron take us into full integration?

    I think he ought to come clean with the electors now, before we start to vote.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    RobD said:

    Despite his recent ratings dip (which I suspect will be transient) Cameron stands head & shoulders above the alternatives - so logically the Tories should stick with him until things calm down. But we are talking about the Tory party....

    I think he is sensible for not going on and on. Not sure the announcement was best placed inside a soft interview, but there you go.
    Morning. Was certainly an unexpected was to announce he would stand down, especially given he was the most popular person in his party and it was before the election.

    Given the massive efforts the Tories put into voter targeting at the election, one can only assume that their research told them that certain groups of voters (UKIP?) would be more likely to vote Conservative if Cameron gave notice of his intention to quit.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    If there is a challenge to Cameron, at the moment I expect it to be more akin to Sir Anthony Meyer than Geoffrey Howe.

    But that could change.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited March 2016
    tlg86 said:

    For the avoidance of doubt this is a two way market - Corbyn v Cameron. I think Mike is right about this, but it might mean tying your money up for three to four years.

    If in the aftermath of the referendum the PM is persuaded to stay on, it could be late 2020 before this pays out either way! I've got too much tied up already in long term bets for this one, but Mike is right that the odds should really be the other way round - JC isn't going anywhere unless he wants to yet DC could well be forced out this year.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited March 2016
    FPT EPG said:

    "Somalis are adept fraudsters and Muslims are inclined to rape?
    Just another day on PB comments"



    I went to a function last night where Tim Farron was the main man. I liked him. He was a vegetarian and a transparently decent human being as was his audience. He saved his bile for IDS and those in the UK who lack compassion particularly to immigrants.

    Then this morning I switched on PB and there was this parallel universe where those mean spirited people from Farron's imagination were alive and posting.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Pulpstar said:

    Nicky Morgan to get all the teachers out for leave I see :p

    Is there any UK organisation more remote from its general membership than the NUT? Their conference becomes more of a parody of itself every year.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    I don't agree that a solid Remain win is the safest result for Cameron. He will not be thanked for closing down the EU as an issue for decades by the (substantial) Brexit wing of his party, or the tactics he used, and that resentment will find an outlet.

    For the Conservative Party, a narrow Remain result - a "ok, let's wait and see" from the electorate - might well be best because it will give the EU issue 5-10 years respite, and hold the party together for now, pending a revisit in the 2020s if things deteriorate. There will be something fore everyone to both take away and hang onto.

    But, right now, I don't think there are any "safe" outcomes for Cameron.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Unfortunately, Dave made a huge error of judgement in terms of rushing through the renegotiation process, thereby severely limiting the prospect of achieving meaningful concessions from our EU partners. He then compounded that error by deciding to hold the referendum thereon just four months later ..... it's almost as if he viewed the entire business as being a rather unnecessary irritant, to be dispensed with asap.
    I suspect the uncharitable will be along shortly to claim:
    1) Cameron wasn't serious about renegotiation (or reckoned his chances of achieving much were very small), so

    2) Best get the darn thing out of the way so either it clears the decks for the rest of the term if its REMAIN or its the Tories who negotiate a LEAVE - as the two years under article 50 will be up in this parliament - delaying into 2018 could have led to calls for a GE to let 'the people decide' who should negotiate LEAVE....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited March 2016
    I'd like to see more of Redwood on the stump. I'd almost forgotten about him until reading that Guardian article.

    He can refresh the parts other politicians can't reach.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Roger said:

    I'd like to see more of Redwood on the stump. I'd almost forgotten about him until reading that Guardian article.

    He can refresh the parts other politicians can't reach.
    Whatever floats your boat I suppose.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    ET Now Live
    #BREAKING: Egypt Air flight from Alexandria to Cairo Hijacked, the flight has been asked to land in Cyprus: (Agencies)

    Egypt Air #MS181 was flying from Alexandria to Cairo, requested permission to land at Larnaca #Cyprus. Reportedly carries 82 passengers.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Been ages since we've seen a hijack in the news. Claims of bomb on board.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Been ages since we've seen a hijack in the news. Claims of bomb on board.

    I think the last time the UK was directly involved with one was this case:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/essex/hi/people_and_places/history/newsid_8499000/8499547.stm

    The people involved should still be in jail IMO.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    I notice, presumably out of blind loyalty to the cause, that OGH doesn't bring Tim Farron into the equation, despite his having been almost completely invisible since being elected as leader of his party on 16 July 2015.

    This is perhaps best illustrated when one googles "Liberal Democrats" and the very first entry which then appears, almost 11 months after last May's General Election is as follows:

    "Liberal Democrats www.libdems.org.uk/
    The official site of the Liberal Democrats, led by Nick Clegg. Includes news, campaigns, policies, conference information, biographies, email lists, items for your ..."

    On reflection however, Mike's probably right in his assessment, bearing in mind that invisible Tim has a maximum of only 7 possible challengers for the leadership, including the taxi driver, of whom six and a half have absolutely no chance of succeeding him. He is likely, therefore, to be around for a very, very long time.

    The market put up by William Hill is a straight fight: Cameron vs Corbyn. There are no odds against Sturgeon, Farron or Farrage. That is why OGH does not mention anyone else.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    On Thursday, not a single migrant landed in Greece from Turkey according to ABC:

    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-27/greece-begins-evacuating-idomeni-border-camp-as-arrivals-slow/7278052

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    In a speech likely to trigger fresh claims of scaremongering, Education Secretary Nicky Morgan will warn the older generation they risk creating a lost generation of young people.

    She will say it would be unfair for parents and grandparents to vote to leave the EU because of the 'devastating' impact on the chances of their children and grandchildren.

    And she will appeal to the young to turn out and vote because it will help tackle 'global ills' such as climate change.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3513213/Now-minister-warns-Brexit-wreck-children-s-lives-appeals-young-turn-vote.html
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jeremy Corbyn is safe for as long as the party members clearly back him. David Cameron is expected to go at some point in this Parliament. Labour are always very slow to replace struggling leaders. The Conservatives are pitiless. I'd make the odds something like 5/2 Corbyn to go first, 2/5 Cameron.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Cruz looks like he is in real trouble, as does any man preaching family values who won't stand up and say he has always been faithful to his wife!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Sandpit said:

    Cruz looks like he is in real trouble, as does any man preaching family values who won't stand up and say he has always been faithful to his wife!
    To date though, mainstream media have avoided the issue, citing a lack of evidence from the National Enquirer. Plenty on Twitter, but does that reach most voters?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    In May it is entirely possible that Labour will suffer a serious set back in Scotland (almost certain) and come third (possible but unlikely). They may well suffer the loss of their majority in Wales (likely) whilst remaining the largest party. And they may well suffer a modest net loss of councillors. Outwith London where Kahn is looking a comfortable winner good news is going to be hard to find despite the main opposition (outside Scotland) being a seriously divided Tory party.

    This really ought to make Corbyn more vulnerable. In fact it is possible by the time that the EU referendum comes around that he will already not be leader.

    Cameron, in contrast, is very likely to win his referendum albeit at the cost of considerable damage to his party. I don't think this will hit him directly but be more focussed at possible successors, specifically Osborne. If so, and if we assume that Cameron still wants his friend to replace him, then it is likely that Cameron will hang around for quite a while in the hope that things calm down again with a "unity cabinet" in place.

    Each of these guesstimates could go wrong and politics is unusually febrile at the moment but taking the most likely scenarios it seems to me that these odds are probably right, certainly not so clearly out of line as to constitute serious value.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited March 2016

    Jeremy Corbyn is safe for as long as the party members clearly back him. David Cameron is expected to go at some point in this Parliament. Labour are always very slow to replace struggling leaders. The Conservatives are pitiless. I'd make the odds something like 5/2 Corbyn to go first, 2/5 Cameron.

    The Tories only got rid of one leader quickly, IDS. Heath, Thatcher, Major and now Cameron all went beyond their sell by date.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    DavidL said:

    In May it is entirely possible that Labour will suffer a serious set back in Scotland (almost certain) and come third (possible but unlikely). They may well suffer the loss of their majority in Wales (likely) whilst remaining the largest party. And they may well suffer a modest net loss of councillors. Outwith London where Kahn is looking a comfortable winner good news is going to be hard to find despite the main opposition (outside Scotland) being a seriously divided Tory party.

    This really ought to make Corbyn more vulnerable. In fact it is possible by the time that the EU referendum comes around that he will already not be leader.

    Cameron, in contrast, is very likely to win his referendum albeit at the cost of considerable damage to his party. I don't think this will hit him directly but be more focussed at possible successors, specifically Osborne. If so, and if we assume that Cameron still wants his friend to replace him, then it is likely that Cameron will hang around for quite a while in the hope that things calm down again with a "unity cabinet" in place.

    Each of these guesstimates could go wrong and politics is unusually febrile at the moment but taking the most likely scenarios it seems to me that these odds are probably right, certainly not so clearly out of line as to constitute serious value.

    I doubt labour MPs will move on Corbyn this side of eu referendum.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    OK let me get this straight - Cameron is one of the most successful Cons leaders in recent times, has lanced the boil of the right of the party and the country by holding a referendum on EU membership, is surrounded by sharpshooting political pygmies whose feet are peppered with shot, is opposed by the biggest political joke of the past 100 years...

    ...and he is in trouble?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    In May it is entirely possible that Labour will suffer a serious set back in Scotland (almost certain) and come third (possible but unlikely). They may well suffer the loss of their majority in Wales (likely) whilst remaining the largest party. And they may well suffer a modest net loss of councillors. Outwith London where Kahn is looking a comfortable winner good news is going to be hard to find despite the main opposition (outside Scotland) being a seriously divided Tory party.

    This really ought to make Corbyn more vulnerable. In fact it is possible by the time that the EU referendum comes around that he will already not be leader.

    Cameron, in contrast, is very likely to win his referendum albeit at the cost of considerable damage to his party. I don't think this will hit him directly but be more focussed at possible successors, specifically Osborne. If so, and if we assume that Cameron still wants his friend to replace him, then it is likely that Cameron will hang around for quite a while in the hope that things calm down again with a "unity cabinet" in place.

    Each of these guesstimates could go wrong and politics is unusually febrile at the moment but taking the most likely scenarios it seems to me that these odds are probably right, certainly not so clearly out of line as to constitute serious value.

    I doubt labour MPs will move on Corbyn this side of eu referendum.
    I don't think Labour MPs care that much about the EU referendum. It seems to be an entirely Tory/UKIP gig with not much of the latter.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    Unless Leave win the EU ref (which IMO is unlikely), Cameron will survive to step down at a time of his own choosing later in this Parliament. Corbyn will be vulnerable to adverse results at the ballot box, which seem quite likely (London mayoralty election excepted).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    ET Now Live
    #BREAKING: Egypt Air flight from Alexandria to Cairo Hijacked, the flight has been asked to land in Cyprus: (Agencies)

    Egypt Air #MS181 was flying from Alexandria to Cairo, requested permission to land at Larnaca #Cyprus. Reportedly carries 82 passengers.

    If they have enough fuel to get to Cyprus, I'm sure that the British airbase at Akrotiri will give the hijackers a warm welcome. There might even be ten red Hawks there around now that could give them an escort...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Mr Coburn continues to contribute to the Gaiety of the Nation (if not uKIP):

    UKIP's Holyrood election campaign has been plunged into chaos after it emerged the party is struggling to meet the official deadline for declaring candidates.

    Scottish leader David Coburn insisted candidates would be selected by the party's ruling National Executive Committee.

    He was unable to say when the process would be completed.

    But said UKIP's Holyrood hopefuls would be unveiled at a campaign and manifesto launch event in Edinburgh on April 7 - six days after the Electoral Commission's deadline for nominations.

    The event, said Mr Coburn, will also feature "the world's second best accordionist".


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14388352.UKIP_in_chaos_as_the_party_struggles_to_meet_official_deadline_for_declaring_Holyrood_candidates/?ref=mr&lp=6
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    daodao said:

    Unless Leave win the EU ref (which IMO is unlikely), Cameron will survive to step down at a time of his own choosing later in this Parliament. Corbyn will be vulnerable to adverse results at the ballot box, which seem quite likely (London mayoralty election excepted).

    If Khan wins, as London Mayor he will have a much bigger democratic mandate than Corbyn. Which he could use to great effect as a springboard to the top job in Labour....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In May it is entirely possible that Labour will suffer a serious set back in Scotland (almost certain) and come third (possible but unlikely). They may well suffer the loss of their majority in Wales (likely) whilst remaining the largest party. And they may well suffer a modest net loss of councillors. Outwith London where Kahn is looking a comfortable winner good news is going to be hard to find despite the main opposition (outside Scotland) being a seriously divided Tory party.

    This really ought to make Corbyn more vulnerable. In fact it is possible by the time that the EU referendum comes around that he will already not be leader.

    Cameron, in contrast, is very likely to win his referendum albeit at the cost of considerable damage to his party. I don't think this will hit him directly but be more focussed at possible successors, specifically Osborne. If so, and if we assume that Cameron still wants his friend to replace him, then it is likely that Cameron will hang around for quite a while in the hope that things calm down again with a "unity cabinet" in place.

    Each of these guesstimates could go wrong and politics is unusually febrile at the moment but taking the most likely scenarios it seems to me that these odds are probably right, certainly not so clearly out of line as to constitute serious value.

    I doubt labour MPs will move on Corbyn this side of eu referendum.
    I don't think Labour MPs care that much about the EU referendum. It seems to be an entirely Tory/UKIP gig with not much of the latter.
    If that's the case, then they are idiots. Remain needs a decent Labour voter turn-out.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    daodao said:

    Unless Leave win the EU ref (which IMO is unlikely), Cameron will survive to step down at a time of his own choosing later in this Parliament. Corbyn will be vulnerable to adverse results at the ballot box, which seem quite likely (London mayoralty election excepted).

    If Khan wins, as London Mayor he will have a much bigger democratic mandate than Corbyn. Which he could use to great effect as a springboard to the top job in Labour....
    Has he not promised to stand down as an MP if he wins? He could find himself trapped and on the side lines in the same way as Boris did.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In May it is entirely possible that Labour will suffer a serious set back in Scotland (almost certain) and come third (possible but unlikely). They may well suffer the loss of their majority in Wales (likely) whilst remaining the largest party. And they may well suffer a modest net loss of councillors. Outwith London where Kahn is looking a comfortable winner good news is going to be hard to find despite the main opposition (outside Scotland) being a seriously divided Tory party.

    This really ought to make Corbyn more vulnerable. In fact it is possible by the time that the EU referendum comes around that he will already not be leader.

    Cameron, in contrast, is very likely to win his referendum albeit at the cost of considerable damage to his party. I don't think this will hit him directly but be more focussed at possible successors, specifically Osborne. If so, and if we assume that Cameron still wants his friend to replace him, then it is likely that Cameron will hang around for quite a while in the hope that things calm down again with a "unity cabinet" in place.

    Each of these guesstimates could go wrong and politics is unusually febrile at the moment but taking the most likely scenarios it seems to me that these odds are probably right, certainly not so clearly out of line as to constitute serious value.

    I doubt labour MPs will move on Corbyn this side of eu referendum.
    I don't think Labour MPs care that much about the EU referendum. It seems to be an entirely Tory/UKIP gig with not much of the latter.
    For many Labour MPs, British membership of the EU is a fundamental totem of their politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    TOPPING said:

    OK let me get this straight - Cameron is one of the most successful Cons leaders in recent times, has lanced the boil of the right of the party and the country by holding a referendum on EU membership, is surrounded by sharpshooting political pygmies whose feet are peppered with shot, is opposed by the biggest political joke of the past 100 years...

    ...and he is in trouble?

    Yes, he's dead in the water, too many are too angry to back to the way it was. The boil lanci g was not effective, or his other remedies only made it worse after a brief delay, and niw even an eu victory will not prevent them destabilising his position. A question he goes in months or a year I'd say - idpf remain win he can cling on a bit longer but not for as long as he planned.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    @Sandpit Hijacker wants political asylum and wearing suicide belt.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In May it is entirely possible that Labour will suffer a serious set back in Scotland (almost certain) and come third (possible but unlikely). They may well suffer the loss of their majority in Wales (likely) whilst remaining the largest party. And they may well suffer a modest net loss of councillors. Outwith London where Kahn is looking a comfortable winner good news is going to be hard to find despite the main opposition (outside Scotland) being a seriously divided Tory party.

    This really ought to make Corbyn more vulnerable. In fact it is possible by the time that the EU referendum comes around that he will already not be leader.

    Cameron, in contrast, is very likely to win his referendum albeit at the cost of considerable damage to his party. I don't think this will hit him directly but be more focussed at possible successors, specifically Osborne. If so, and if we assume that Cameron still wants his friend to replace him, then it is likely that Cameron will hang around for quite a while in the hope that things calm down again with a "unity cabinet" in place.

    Each of these guesstimates could go wrong and politics is unusually febrile at the moment but taking the most likely scenarios it seems to me that these odds are probably right, certainly not so clearly out of line as to constitute serious value.

    I doubt labour MPs will move on Corbyn this side of eu referendum.
    I don't think Labour MPs care that much about the EU referendum. It seems to be an entirely Tory/UKIP gig with not much of the latter.
    For many Labour MPs, British membership of the EU is a fundamental totem of their politics.
    I'm sure that is right but I see almost no sign of them fighting for it. And Alan Johnson is once again showing that he was right in understanding his own limitations.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In May it is entirely possible that Labour will suffer a serious set back in Scotland (almost certain) and come third (possible but unlikely). They may well suffer the loss of their majority in Wales (likely) whilst remaining the largest party. And they may well suffer a modest net loss of councillors. Outwith London where Kahn is looking a comfortable winner good news is going to be hard to find despite the main opposition (outside Scotland) being a seriously divided Tory party.

    This really ought to make Corbyn more vulnerable. In fact it is possible by the time that the EU referendum comes around that he will already not be leader.

    Cameron, in contrast, is very likely to win his referendum albeit at the cost of considerable damage to his party. I don't think this will hit him directly but be more focussed at possible successors, specifically Osborne. If so, and if we assume that Cameron still wants his friend to replace him, then it is likely that Cameron will hang around for quite a while in the hope that things calm down again with a "unity cabinet" in place.

    Each of these guesstimates could go wrong and politics is unusually febrile at the moment but taking the most likely scenarios it seems to me that these odds are probably right, certainly not so clearly out of line as to constitute serious value.

    I doubt labour MPs will move on Corbyn this side of eu referendum.
    I don't think Labour MPs care that much about the EU referendum. It seems to be an entirely Tory/UKIP gig with not much of the latter.
    For many Labour MPs, British membership of the EU is a fundamental totem of their politics.
    I am sure that is the case, but so far the story has nearly entirely been about internal faction fights in the Tory party. Even the kippers are being ignored on the subject.

    Part of the difficulty is campaigning while distancing themselves from either Tory faction.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Roger said:




    I went to a function last night where Tim Farron was the main man. I liked him. He was a vegetarian and a transparently decent human being as was his audience. He saved his bile for IDS and those in the UK who lack compassion particularly to immigrants.

    Then this morning I switched on PB and there was this parallel universe where those mean spirited people from Farron's imagination were alive and posting.

    Why does it matter if Farron eats meat (or fish) or not. That he’s a transparently decent human being is far more important. IIRC the last political leader who could be so described was David Steel.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    @Sandpit Hijacker wants political asylum and wearing suicide belt.

    Keen to make a good impression then.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In May it is entirely possible that Labour will suffer a serious set back in Scotland (almost certain) and come third (possible but unlikely). They may well suffer the loss of their majority in Wales (likely) whilst remaining the largest party. And they may well suffer a modest net loss of councillors. Outwith London where Kahn is looking a comfortable winner good news is going to be hard to find despite the main opposition (outside Scotland) being a seriously divided Tory party.

    This really ought to make Corbyn more vulnerable. In fact it is possible by the time that the EU referendum comes around that he will already not be leader.

    Cameron, in contrast, is very likely to win his referendum albeit at the cost of considerable damage to his party. I don't think this will hit him directly but be more focussed at possible successors, specifically Osborne. If so, and if we assume that Cameron still wants his friend to replace him, then it is likely that Cameron will hang around for quite a while in the hope that things calm down again with a "unity cabinet" in place.

    Each of these guesstimates could go wrong and politics is unusually febrile at the moment but taking the most likely scenarios it seems to me that these odds are probably right, certainly not so clearly out of line as to constitute serious value.

    I doubt labour MPs will move on Corbyn this side of eu referendum.
    I don't think Labour MPs care that much about the EU referendum. It seems to be an entirely Tory/UKIP gig with not much of the latter.
    For many Labour MPs, British membership of the EU is a fundamental totem of their politics.
    I am sure that is the case, but so far the story has nearly entirely been about internal faction fights in the Tory party. Even the kippers are being ignored on the subject.

    Part of the difficulty is campaigning while distancing themselves from either Tory faction.
    Snap.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    DavidL said:

    daodao said:

    Unless Leave win the EU ref (which IMO is unlikely), Cameron will survive to step down at a time of his own choosing later in this Parliament. Corbyn will be vulnerable to adverse results at the ballot box, which seem quite likely (London mayoralty election excepted).

    If Khan wins, as London Mayor he will have a much bigger democratic mandate than Corbyn. Which he could use to great effect as a springboard to the top job in Labour....
    Has he not promised to stand down as an MP if he wins? He could find himself trapped and on the side lines in the same way as Boris did.
    Mr Khan later confirmed that he would stand down as an MP if was elected Mayor.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-34222076
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    I agree that it's likelier Cameron will be off first. He's announced his departure, for a start.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Anyone remember the last hijack at Larnaca? It feels very familiar but 70s? And they were ten a penny back then.
    Pulpstar said:

    @Sandpit Hijacker wants political asylum and wearing suicide belt.

    Keen to make a good impression then.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Pulpstar said:

    @Sandpit Hijacker wants political asylum and wearing suicide belt.

    Keen to make a good impression then.
    Fashion stastement?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Pulpstar said:

    @Sandpit Hijacker wants political asylum and wearing suicide belt.

    Keen to make a good impression then.
    I am sure we have classes in cultural values that cover this sort of thing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Roger said:




    I went to a function last night where Tim Farron was the main man. I liked him. He was a vegetarian and a transparently decent human being as was his audience. He saved his bile for IDS and those in the UK who lack compassion particularly to immigrants.

    Then this morning I switched on PB and there was this parallel universe where those mean spirited people from Farron's imagination were alive and posting.

    Why does it matter if Farron eats meat (or fish) or not. That he’s a transparently decent human being is far more important. IIRC the last political leader who could be so described was David Steel.

    I don't think David Steel has found himself on the wrong side of history, or been derailed by his belief in a sky faerie....

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/19/tim-farron-gay-rights-accused-illiberal-approach-lib-dems
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    #Egypt media say 10 US citizens, 8 British on board #EgyptAir #MS181.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    daodao said:

    Unless Leave win the EU ref (which IMO is unlikely), Cameron will survive to step down at a time of his own choosing later in this Parliament. Corbyn will be vulnerable to adverse results at the ballot box, which seem quite likely (London mayoralty election excepted).

    If Khan wins, as London Mayor he will have a much bigger democratic mandate than Corbyn. Which he could use to great effect as a springboard to the top job in Labour....
    Has he not promised to stand down as an MP if he wins? He could find himself trapped and on the side lines in the same way as Boris did.
    Mr Khan later confirmed that he would stand down as an MP if was elected Mayor.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-34222076
    Thanks, that was my recollection. I don't see a path to the leadership for him at the moment. If he loses he is a loser. If he wins he takes himself out the game, at least for 4 years.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In May it is entirely possible that Labour will suffer a serious set back in Scotland (almost certain) and come third (possible but unlikely). They may well suffer the loss of their majority in Wales (likely) whilst remaining the largest party. And they may well suffer a modest net loss of councillors. Outwith London where Kahn is looking a comfortable winner good news is going to be hard to find despite the main opposition (outside Scotland) being a seriously divided Tory party.

    This really ought to make Corbyn more vulnerable. In fact it is possible by the time that the EU referendum comes around that he will already not be leader.

    Cameron, in contrast, is very likely to win his referendum albeit at the cost of considerable damage to his party. I don't think this will hit him directly but be more focussed at possible successors, specifically Osborne. If so, and if we assume that Cameron still wants his friend to replace him, then it is likely that Cameron will hang around for quite a while in the hope that things calm down again with a "unity cabinet" in place.

    Each of these guesstimates could go wrong and politics is unusually febrile at the moment but taking the most likely scenarios it seems to me that these odds are probably right, certainly not so clearly out of line as to constitute serious value.

    I doubt labour MPs will move on Corbyn this side of eu referendum.
    I don't think Labour MPs care that much about the EU referendum. It seems to be an entirely Tory/UKIP gig with not much of the latter.
    For many Labour MPs, British membership of the EU is a fundamental totem of their politics.
    I'm sure that is right but I see almost no sign of them fighting for it. And Alan Johnson is once again showing that he was right in understanding his own limitations.

    There is no real referendum campaign. It is David Cameron against the Tory right. Given that this whole exercise has always been about the Conservative party and its internal problems, this is no surprise. You can give as many speeches as you want and attend as many debates as possible, but if the media does not cover them, they are almost entirely pointless. And if you are not Dave or Boris you will not get coverage.

    The fact is that the only people that matter in this referendum are Tory politicians. They will decide what happens after 23rd June, no-one else.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    DavidL said:

    daodao said:

    Unless Leave win the EU ref (which IMO is unlikely), Cameron will survive to step down at a time of his own choosing later in this Parliament. Corbyn will be vulnerable to adverse results at the ballot box, which seem quite likely (London mayoralty election excepted).

    If Khan wins, as London Mayor he will have a much bigger democratic mandate than Corbyn. Which he could use to great effect as a springboard to the top job in Labour....
    Has he not promised to stand down as an MP if he wins? He could find himself trapped and on the side lines in the same way as Boris did.
    We'll see how quickly he moves on that by-election. Expect delays...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Afghan_hijackers_case

    HUUUUUUUUUMAAAAAAAAN RIIIIIIGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHTTTTS
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Michael Horowitz
    According to Youm7 the hijacker initially wanted to land in #Turkey, lack of fuel prevented it. #Cyprus #Egypt
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In May it is entirely possible that Labour will suffer a serious set back in Scotland (almost certain) and come third (possible but unlikely). They may well suffer the loss of their majority in Wales (likely) whilst remaining the largest party. And they may well suffer a modest net loss of councillors. Outwith London where Kahn is looking a comfortable winner good news is going to be hard to find despite the main opposition (outside Scotland) being a seriously divided Tory party.

    This really ought to make Corbyn more vulnerable. In fact it is possible by the time that the EU referendum comes around that he will already not be leader.

    Cameron, in contrast, is very likely to win his referendum albeit at the cost of considerable damage to his party. I don't think this will hit him directly but be more focussed at possible successors, specifically Osborne. If so, and if we assume that Cameron still wants his friend to replace him, then it is likely that Cameron will hang around for quite a while in the hope that things calm down again with a "unity cabinet" in place.

    Each of these guesstimates could go wrong and politics is unusually febrile at the moment but taking the most likely scenarios it seems to me that these odds are probably right, certainly not so clearly out of line as to constitute serious value.

    I doubt labour MPs will move on Corbyn this side of eu referendum.
    I don't think Labour MPs care that much about the EU referendum. It seems to be an entirely Tory/UKIP gig with not much of the latter.
    For many Labour MPs, British membership of the EU is a fundamental totem of their politics.
    I'm sure that is right but I see almost no sign of them fighting for it. And Alan Johnson is once again showing that he was right in understanding his own limitations.

    There is no real referendum campaign. It is David Cameron against the Tory right. Given that this whole exercise has always been about the Conservative party and its internal problems, this is no surprise. You can give as many speeches as you want and attend as many debates as possible, but if the media does not cover them, they are almost entirely pointless. And if you are not Dave or Boris you will not get coverage.

    The fact is that the only people that matter in this referendum are Tory politicians. They will decide what happens after 23rd June, no-one else.

    The people will decide, but the 60% ish of non-Tory voters are not yet much involved.

    Of course in 40 minutes we get a view from Jacks ARSE4EU which should change the news agenda.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In May it is entirely possible that Labour will suffer a serious set back in Scotland (almost certain) and come third (possible but unlikely). They may well suffer the loss of their majority in Wales (likely) whilst remaining the largest party. And they may well suffer a modest net loss of councillors. Outwith London where Kahn is looking a comfortable winner good news is going to be hard to find despite the main opposition (outside Scotland) being a seriously divided Tory party.

    This really ought to make Corbyn more vulnerable. In fact it is possible by the time that the EU referendum comes around that he will already not be leader.

    Cameron, in contrast, is very likely to win his referendum albeit at the cost of considerable damage to his party. I don't think this will hit him directly but be more focussed at possible successors, specifically Osborne. If so, and if we assume that Cameron still wants his friend to replace him, then it is likely that Cameron will hang around for quite a while in the hope that things calm down again with a "unity cabinet" in place.

    Each of these guesstimates could go wrong and politics is unusually febrile at the moment but taking the most likely scenarios it seems to me that these odds are probably right, certainly not so clearly out of line as to constitute serious value.

    I doubt labour MPs will move on Corbyn this side of eu referendum.
    I don't think Labour MPs care that much about the EU referendum. It seems to be an entirely Tory/UKIP gig with not much of the latter.
    For many Labour MPs, British membership of the EU is a fundamental totem of their politics.
    I'm sure that is right but I see almost no sign of them fighting for it. And Alan Johnson is once again showing that he was right in understanding his own limitations.

    The fact is that the only people that matter in this referendum are Tory politicians. They will decide what happens after 23rd June, no-one else.

    Do you think that would hold true if Blair was Labour leader......

    As Robert Harris tweeted watching yesterday's 1966 GE coverage - Labour has gone from an Oxford Double First to two Es at A Level......
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    I doubt labour MPs will move on Corbyn this side of eu referendum.
    I don't think Labour MPs care that much about the EU referendum. It seems to be an entirely Tory/UKIP gig with not much of the latter.
    For many Labour MPs, British membership of the EU is a fundamental totem of their politics.
    I'm sure that is right but I see almost no sign of them fighting for it. And Alan Johnson is once again showing that he was right in understanding his own limitations.

    There is no real referendum campaign. It is David Cameron against the Tory right. Given that this whole exercise has always been about the Conservative party and its internal problems, this is no surprise. You can give as many speeches as you want and attend as many debates as possible, but if the media does not cover them, they are almost entirely pointless. And if you are not Dave or Boris you will not get coverage.

    The fact is that the only people that matter in this referendum are Tory politicians. They will decide what happens after 23rd June, no-one else.

    I agree entirely and after Better Together Labour are understandably chary about sharing any platforms with those Tory politicians. My only point was I can't see the referendum in June featuring highly in the minds of Labour MPs if things go very badly in May. I think they think (rightly or wrongly) this is Cameron's mess and its his job to clean it up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Yet more persuasive words from Janan Ganesh on limits of anti elite populism, although I'm not do sure I agree anymore - sone people I never expected to be so virulently anti politician I recently discovered were, making me question my assumption anti elite fervour was not as big a deal as I thought.

    http://app.ft.com/cms/s/bbe57aa6-f1dc-11e5-aff5-19b4e253664a.html
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    On balance, I think Mike's right.

    Reasons Corbyn might go first:

    - The May elections come before the EURef and the May elections could be poor enough for Corbyn to be pressured out, though this looks less likely than it did two months ago.
    - If Cameron isn't ousted after the EURef then Corbyn will be the one under pressure, constantly, because he's not very good at the job.
    - He's never been ambitious personally and might well not fight to stay, as long as there's a route for his ideas to be embedded within Labour, which there may well be if the leadership rules are changed at this autumn's conference.

    Reasons Cameron might go first:

    - He could, and quite probably will, lose the EURef. That alone could prompt his resignation but if not, he'd likely face a VoNC from the parliamentary party. He might win that but there's a reasonable chance he wouldn't.
    - Even if Remain wins, he could face the same vote if enough of his MPs are unhappy with his campaigning and feel there's an alternative leader who could do a better job.
    - If Corbyn isn't ousted and doesn't resign before the GE, Cameron *will* go first.

    There are four distinct phases here:

    1. May. If Corbyn's going to be ousted straight after the locals, it'll happen within days. I think this is quite unlikely as Khan will probably win in London, the results nationally won't be dire, and the mechanics make it difficult - not least because it'll be hard for his critics to make a meaningful move: they can't resign from his shadow cabinet because they're not in it.

    Chances of departure: Corbyn 10%, Cameron 0%

    2. June / July. EURef and aftermath. We know the situation re Cameron. It is possible, but unlikely, that Labour's critics of Corbyn might take advantage of that disruption in the Tories to move against Corbyn.

    Chances of departure: Corbyn 2%, Cameron 55%

    3. Aug 2016 - 2018. Back to politics as normal. If both leaders have come through this far, whatever the result of the EURef, Corbyn will still look by far the less capable of the two. Two and a half years will be a long time to survive, given how much pressure he's been under these last six months alone. He may jump or be pushed. On the other side, lingering resentment over Europe and other matters may come to a head in some temporary crisis.

    Chances of departure: Corbyn 70%, Cameron 15%

    4. 2019 - 2020. Cameron's pre-announced his departure. It is just possible that he might go back but I suspect the mood in the party will be that it'll be time for him to move on rather than begging him to stay. On top of which, there's the risk of events preempting an organised handover. For Corbyn, the pressure of the forthcoming election would be starting to tell, particularly if a new Tory leader got a bounce in the polls.

    Chances of departure: Corbyn 30%, Cameron 95%

    Overall odds of first out: roughly Corbyn 35%, Cameron 65%.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    Despite his recent ratings dip (which I suspect will be transient) Cameron stands head & shoulders above the alternatives - so logically the Tories should stick with him until things calm down. But we are talking about the Tory party....

    When was the last time the Tories dumped an effective leader?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    First ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown :

    30 minutes
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Afghan_hijackers_case

    HUUUUUUUUUMAAAAAAAAN RIIIIIIGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHTTTTS

    It 's interesting to see the laws that kept the men in the country with no restrictions: the 1971 Immigration Act (pre-EU) and the 1998 Human Rights Act.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Egyptian tourism bosses must be wondering how much worse it can get. Travel here and get taken hostage on a surprise trip to Cyprus.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408



    Reasons Cameron might go first:

    - He could, and quite probably will, lose the EURef. That alone could prompt his resignation but if not, he'd likely face a VoNC from the parliamentary party. He might win that but there's a reasonable chance he wouldn't.
    - Even if Remain wins, he could face the same vote if enough of his MPs are unhappy with his campaigning and feel there's an alternative leader who could do a better job.
    - If Corbyn isn't ousted and doesn't resign before the GE, Cameron *will* go first.

    There are four distinct phases here:

    1. May. If Corbyn's going to be ousted straight after the locals, it'll happen within days. I think this is quite unlikely as Khan will probably win in London, the results nationally won't be dire, and the mechanics make it difficult - not least because it'll be hard for his critics to make a meaningful move: they can't resign from his shadow cabinet because they're not in it.

    Chances of departure: Corbyn 10%, Cameron 0%

    2. June / July. EURef and aftermath. We know the situation re Cameron. It is possible, but unlikely, that Labour's critics of Corbyn might take advantage of that disruption in the Tories to move against Corbyn.

    Chances of departure: Corbyn 2%, Cameron 55%

    3. Aug 2016 - 2018. Back to politics as normal. If both leaders have come through this far, whatever the result of the EURef, Corbyn will still look by far the less capable of the two. Two and a half years will be a long time to survive, given how much pressure he's been under these last six months alone. He may jump or be pushed. On the other side, lingering resentment over Europe and other matters may come to a head in some temporary crisis.

    Chances of departure: Corbyn 70%, Cameron 15%

    4. 2019 - 2020. Cameron's pre-announced his departure. It is just possible that he might go back but I suspect the mood in the party will be that it'll be time for him to move on rather than begging him to stay. On top of which, there's the risk of events preempting an organised handover. For Corbyn, the pressure of the forthcoming election would be starting to tell, particularly if a new Tory leader got a bounce in the polls.

    Chances of departure: Corbyn 30%, Cameron 95%

    Overall odds of first out: roughly Corbyn 35%, Cameron 65%.

    Practically a follow up thread to this one! It seems very sound, although personally I'd put camerons odds of going first in phase 3 as a bit higher. If he survives into 2017 I think it's right, but I think the point about lingering resentment or other matters coming to a head is pretty likely post May through the rest of 2016.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    DavidL said:

    daodao said:

    Unless Leave win the EU ref (which IMO is unlikely), Cameron will survive to step down at a time of his own choosing later in this Parliament. Corbyn will be vulnerable to adverse results at the ballot box, which seem quite likely (London mayoralty election excepted).

    If Khan wins, as London Mayor he will have a much bigger democratic mandate than Corbyn. Which he could use to great effect as a springboard to the top job in Labour....
    Has he not promised to stand down as an MP if he wins? He could find himself trapped and on the side lines in the same way as Boris did.
    We'll see how quickly he moves on that by-election. Expect delays...
    Khan's mob in Tooting are certainly gearing up for a by-election and so is he. Labour are feeling very confident about the scheming git winning at the moment,even though most hate him.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    Michael Horowitz
    Hijacker identified as Ibrahim Samaha #Egypt #Cyprus

    #BreakingReport
    Kidnapper of #EgyptAir plane only keeps 5 hostages inside plane in #Larnaca.
    3 British, 1 Italian, 1 Irishman
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In May it is entirely possible that Labour will suffer a serious set back in Scotland (almost certain) and come third (possible but unlikely). They may well suffer the loss of their majority in Wales (likely) whilst remaining the largest party. And they may well suffer a modest net loss of councillors. Outwith London where Kahn is looking a comfortable winner good news is going to be hard to find despite the main opposition (outside Scotland) being a seriously divided Tory party.

    This really ought to make Corbyn more vulnerable. In fact it is possible by the time that the EU referendum comes around that he will already not be leader.

    Cameron, in contrast, is very likely to win his referendum albeit at the cost of considerable damage to his party. I don't think this will hit him directly but be more focussed at possible successors, specifically Osborne. If so, and if we assume that Cameron still wants his friend to replace him, then it is likely that Cameron will hang around for quite a while in the hope that things calm down again with a "unity cabinet" in place.

    Each of these guesstimates could go wrong and politics is unusually febrile at the moment but taking the most likely scenarios it seems to me that these odds are probably right, certainly not so clearly out of line as to constitute serious value.

    I doubt labour MPs will move on Corbyn this side of eu referendum.
    I don't think Labour MPs care that much about the EU referendum. It seems to be an entirely Tory/UKIP gig with not much of the latter.
    For many Labour MPs, British membership of the EU is a fundamental totem of their politics.
    I'm sure that is right but I see almost no sign of them fighting for it. And Alan Johnson is once again showing that he was right in understanding his own limitations.

    The fact is that the only people that matter in this referendum are Tory politicians. They will decide what happens after 23rd June, no-one else.

    Do you think that would hold true if Blair was Labour leader......

    As Robert Harris tweeted watching yesterday's 1966 GE coverage - Labour has gone from an Oxford Double First to two Es at A Level......
    There has, I fear, been an undercurrent of Dreaming Spires snobbery in the media for some time. It may be no coincidence that leaders who have not spent three years at Oxford struggled to be taken seriously: Brown, Kinnock and Callaghan for Labour; Major and IDS for the Conservatives.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Oxfam wants more migrants/refugees resettled:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35913972

    Not too surprising, but the line that caught my eye was this:
    "It says five other nations - Australia, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, New Zealand - have pledged more than half of their fare share. In contrast, the UK is set to take 22% of its fair share, the US just 7%, and France only 4%."

    Sweden, merely over half their fair share? That seems odd given, I think, they had an open door policy.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    OK let me get this straight - Cameron is one of the most successful Cons leaders in recent times, has lanced the boil of the right of the party and the country by holding a referendum on EU membership, is surrounded by sharpshooting political pygmies whose feet are peppered with shot, is opposed by the biggest political joke of the past 100 years...

    ...and he is in trouble?

    Yes, he's dead in the water, too many are too angry to back to the way it was. The boil lanci g was not effective, or his other remedies only made it worse after a brief delay, and niw even an eu victory will not prevent them destabilising his position. A question he goes in months or a year I'd say - idpf remain win he can cling on a bit longer but not for as long as he planned.
    Agreed. He is attacking the very party that gave him his power. Not clever and no need to do it. Cameron may hold on, but he has lowered our chances of winning London Mayoralty and he won't be forgiven. No chance, never. Very disloyal.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    PClipp said:

    runnymede said:

    PClipp said:

    The referendum question is meaningless. Whatever the result, the Tories and their spin machine can interpret is any way they want.

    No - even a retreat to EEA membership is a big improvement from the current situation. Only the government would have you think different.
    Not at all. As things stand, a vote for LEAVE can mean anything between EEA membership (as you say) and complete isolation. Who knows which of these Cameron would go for?

    So Ms Vance is also completely wrong. It is not up to the LEAVE campaign to say what LEAVE would mean. It is up to Mr Cameron.

    Likewise if we go for REMAIN. Will this mean a continuation of carping nagging from the sidelines, as at present, or will Cameron take us into full integration?

    I think he ought to come clean with the electors now, before we start to vote.
    We have a thing called democracy to help us answer that. The government will work within what the representative parliament, and what the electorate allow.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Oxfam wants more migrants/refugees resettled:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35913972

    Not too surprising, but the line that caught my eye was this:
    "It says five other nations - Australia, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, New Zealand - have pledged more than half of their fare share. In contrast, the UK is set to take 22% of its fair share, the US just 7%, and France only 4%."

    Sweden, merely over half their fair share? That seems odd given, I think, they had an open door policy.

    No call for (by the same token) the Calais camp migrants to immediately claim asylum in France, then.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    JackW said:

    First ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown :

    160 minutes

    Thank you, Jack. When will you have a forecast on London Mayoralty? I trust your guidance.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    On Thursday, not a single migrant landed in Greece from Turkey according to ABC:

    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-27/greece-begins-evacuating-idomeni-border-camp-as-arrivals-slow/7278052

    Raising the cost of passage reduces the number making it shocker
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited March 2016
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    OK let me get this straight - Cameron is one of the most successful Cons leaders in recent times, has lanced the boil of the right of the party and the country by holding a referendum on EU membership, is surrounded by sharpshooting political pygmies whose feet are peppered with shot, is opposed by the biggest political joke of the past 100 years...

    ...and he is in trouble?

    Yes, he's dead in the water, too many are too angry to back to the way it was. The boil lanci g was not effective, or his other remedies only made it worse after a brief delay, and niw even an eu victory will not prevent them destabilising his position. A question he goes in months or a year I'd say - idpf remain win he can cling on a bit longer but not for as long as he planned.
    Although the bar is low it would take a special kind of stupid for Cons MPs to push him out what, a year or so early.

    Not to underestimate the idiocy of many Cons MPs (as @CarlottaVance mentioned) but on balance I think the children will step away from the pan of boiling water.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited March 2016

    Michael Horowitz
    Hijacker identified as Ibrahim Samaha #Egypt #Cyprus

    #BreakingReport
    Kidnapper of #EgyptAir plane only keeps 5 hostages inside plane in #Larnaca.
    3 British, 1 Italian, 1 Irishman

    Landing in Cyprus makes things interesting, as there must be a few of Hereford's finest already enjoying the Akrotiri sunshine. I'd imagine they're loading up their Landrover with beach towels and sunscreen before heading off towards Larnaca.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    @Sandpit Hijacker wants political asylum and wearing suicide belt.

    If he has a real bomb in the cabin then Egyptian airport security is in more trouble then we thought after the Russian plane bombing last year.

    Plane on ground at Larnaca, most hostages released but a handful of foreigners including Brits still on board with hijacker and crew.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/12206204/EgyptAir-flight-from-Alexandria-to-Cairo-hijacked-live.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    @David Herdson - you think Leave will probably win?

    May I ask why?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Dixie said:

    JackW said:

    First ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown :

    160 minutes

    Thank you, Jack. When will you have a forecast on London Mayoralty? I trust your guidance.
    Unfortunately not.

    Just ARSE4EU and ARSE4US this year.
  • Despite his recent ratings dip (which I suspect will be transient) Cameron stands head & shoulders above the alternatives - so logically the Tories should stick with him until things calm down. But we are talking about the Tory party....

    When was the last time the Tories dumped an effective leader?
    1990?

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Have to say, twitter is brilliant during these events
  • Roger said:

    FPT EPG said:

    "Somalis are adept fraudsters and Muslims are inclined to rape?
    Just another day on PB comments"



    I went to a function last night where Tim Farron was the main man. I liked him. He was a vegetarian and a transparently decent human being as was his audience. He saved his bile for IDS and those in the UK who lack compassion particularly to immigrants.

    Then this morning I switched on PB and there was this parallel universe where those mean spirited people from Farron's imagination were alive and posting.

    You and your fellow lefties are just as wrong and out of touch as the right wing nut jobs though. They think all immigrants are vile scum, bringing fgm, forced marriage, benefit fraud and rape to the country.
    In your world, all immigrants are beautiful, decent people, fleeing persecution and injustice, who are only coming here to enrich our life with their history, arts and culture.
    You're both wrong, and you all do the rest of the country a disservice with your extreme views.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited March 2016
    Edited-Too jumbled
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Jim Waterson
    Seamus Milne recommends using social media to isolate critics within the Labour Party. https://t.co/nnCGuTJ4IG https://t.co/NrgEm1hHq2
  • Roger said:

    FPT EPG said:

    "Somalis are adept fraudsters and Muslims are inclined to rape?
    Just another day on PB comments"



    I went to a function last night where Tim Farron was the main man. I liked him. He was a vegetarian and a transparently decent human being as was his audience. He saved his bile for IDS and those in the UK who lack compassion particularly to immigrants.

    Then this morning I switched on PB and there was this parallel universe where those mean spirited people from Farron's imagination were alive and posting.

    You and your fellow lefties are just as wrong and out of touch as the right wing nut jobs though. They think all immigrants are vile scum, bringing fgm, forced marriage, benefit fraud and rape to the country.
    In your world, all immigrants are beautiful, decent people, fleeing persecution and injustice, who are only coming here to enrich our life with their history, arts and culture.
    You're both wrong, and you all do the rest of the country a disservice with your extreme views.
    Serious virtue signalling, there.

  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    I doubt labour MPs will move on Corbyn this side of eu referendum.
    I don't think Labour MPs care that much about the EU referendum. It seems to be an entirely Tory/UKIP gig with not much of the latter.
    For many Labour MPs, British membership of the EU is a fundamental totem of their politics.
    I'm sure that is right but I see almost no sign of them fighting for it. And Alan Johnson is once again showing that he was right in understanding his own limitations.

    There is no real referendum campaign. It is David Cameron against the Tory right. Given that this whole exercise has always been about the Conservative party and its internal problems, this is no surprise. You can give as many speeches as you want and attend as many debates as possible, but if the media does not cover them, they are almost entirely pointless. And if you are not Dave or Boris you will not get coverage.

    The fact is that the only people that matter in this referendum are Tory politicians. They will decide what happens after 23rd June, no-one else.

    I agree entirely and after Better Together Labour are understandably chary about sharing any platforms with those Tory politicians. My only point was I can't see the referendum in June featuring highly in the minds of Labour MPs if things go very badly in May. I think they think (rightly or wrongly) this is Cameron's mess and its his job to clean it up.
    Agree, it seems Labour are quietly enjoying the referendum, they're in a win-win situation. Leave and they get to smirk at Cameron and watch the infighting, Remain and its business as normal, with infighting.
  • Roger said:

    FPT EPG said:

    "Somalis are adept fraudsters and Muslims are inclined to rape?
    Just another day on PB comments"



    I went to a function last night where Tim Farron was the main man. I liked him. He was a vegetarian and a transparently decent human being as was his audience. He saved his bile for IDS and those in the UK who lack compassion particularly to immigrants.

    Then this morning I switched on PB and there was this parallel universe where those mean spirited people from Farron's imagination were alive and posting.

    You and your fellow lefties are just as wrong and out of touch as the right wing nut jobs though. They think all immigrants are vile scum, bringing fgm, forced marriage, benefit fraud and rape to the country.
    In your world, all immigrants are beautiful, decent people, fleeing persecution and injustice, who are only coming here to enrich our life with their history, arts and culture.
    You're both wrong, and you all do the rest of the country a disservice with your extreme views.
    Serious virtue signalling, there.

    If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    More than 670 children – some as young as just 10 years old - have been arrested for suspected gun crimes in London in the last three years.
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/revealed-met-arrests-more-than-200-children-a-year-for-suspected-gun-crimes-a3212901.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    edited March 2016

    Roger said:

    FPT EPG said:

    "Somalis are adept fraudsters and Muslims are inclined to rape?
    Just another day on PB comments"



    I went to a function last night where Tim Farron was the main man. I liked him. He was a vegetarian and a transparently decent human being as was his audience. He saved his bile for IDS and those in the UK who lack compassion particularly to immigrants.

    Then this morning I switched on PB and there was this parallel universe where those mean spirited people from Farron's imagination were alive and posting.

    You and your fellow lefties are just as wrong and out of touch as the right wing nut jobs though. They think all immigrants are vile scum, bringing fgm, forced marriage, benefit fraud and rape to the country.
    In your world, all immigrants are beautiful, decent people, fleeing persecution and injustice, who are only coming here to enrich our life with their history, arts and culture.
    You're both wrong, and you all do the rest of the country a disservice with your extreme views.
    Personally I think immigrants are people, and in my experience “people” all oover the world can be any of, vile scum, beautiful, decent, have cultural ptactices I find repugnant and so on. Sometimes all at the same time!
This discussion has been closed.