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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wisconsin next Tuesday looks like the last primary where Tr
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wisconsin next Tuesday looks like the last primary where Trump can be stopped
One thing that is becoming increasingly clear in the battle for the Republican nomination is that Donald Trump will need to have enough delegates on the first round by the time he gets to the GOP convention in Cleveland in July.
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Quite why Kasich's odds are coming in is a total mystery.
I'm been avoiding going there because I thought it was near Dakota or something!
Thanks
The question remains how long the Zoomers can put up with the gap between the 'social democratic' rhetoric and the 'evil bastard Tory' policy.......
My favourite The Two Ronnies sketch
http://youtu.be/y0C59pI_ypQ
The odds on that are still good.
But if Cruz wins by a double digit margin you can expect him to take all delegates.
The Standard can reveal that leaders of the controversial Momentum group told activists to support the Labour candidate because defeat in London on May 5 would “undermine” his party’s leader. Tories seized on the revelation by taunting: “Vote Khan, Get Corbyn.”
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-hardleft-plot-to-back-sadiq-khan-in-bid-to-strengthen-corbyn-a3215066.html
And keeps him in the race.
http://frontloading.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_26.html
My head hurts.
The most likely outcome, therefore, is:
Cruz 30
Trump 9
Almost equally likely is:
Cruz 33
Trump 6
If Cruz weren't a Senator from Texas, or Kasich Governor of Ohio, then Trump would have been as a sure thing as Hillary.
Given that they both tend to win and lose the same states, with the exceptions of the home states of their rivals.
It's a pity for Sanders that his home state is tiny Vermont, though that gave him a win in N.H.
Whether that will be the case this time remains to be seen. Wisconsin polling is sparse but seems to show Cruz ahead:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_republican_presidential_primary-3763.html
More generally, with his abortion comments Trump has probably tested to destruction the theory that you can shoot from the hip at random targets without any electoral downside.
The Milwaukee suburbs are the home of the most economic conservatives in America, they are very rich, very republican and they hate things like healthcare, pensions, schools ect.
Their poster boys include such useless and incompetent people like Paul Ryan and Scott Walker, and much earlier Joe McCarthy of McCarthyism fame.
The GOP establishment is not located just in the D.C suburbs or Salt Lake City you know, they are also in Milwaukee, Orange County and the Upper East Side.
http://order-order.com/2016/03/31/sadiqs-personal-emails-to-extremist-imam/
It's TV clickbait and little more.
An anti-corruption body, known as the public protector, ruled in 2014 that $23m (£15m) had been spent on his rural home in Nkandla in South Africa's KwaZulu-Natal province.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35932286
You want to hear his opinion on immigrants....he makes Donald Trump sound like a limp wristed Guardianista...
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/715497298084687877
But in Wisconsin and the states that follow it there are not many religious anti-abortion conservatives. It's smart politics for places like Kansas but not for places like California.
Politically the timing was the problem not the substance, especially when there are many NeverTrumps who hold views even more extreme:
https://twitter.com/Green_Footballs/status/715255477769142272
So right now you can enjoy the spectacle of anti-abortionists defending abortion just because they hate Trump.
"However, our next question did uncover huge differences between the two sides. We listed ten possible causes of our economic problems and asked people to say which two or three they blame most. The top three picked by the “in” voters are completely different from the three picked by “out” voters:
For “in” voters, the top three are: British banks, the Conservative-led government since 2010 and growing inequality.
For “out” voters they are: EU rules and regulations, immigrants willing to work for low wages and the last Labour government."
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/24/eu-referendum-provincial-england-versus-london-and/
https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/715487302412165120
It's still 20 days till voting there.
Trump's odds in the betting markets will get a boost after N.Y votes, but until then it looks like it's all grim news for him.
Fun little piece...Polly going both barrels on hypocrisy, owning a 2nd home, pretending to represent a class of people you don't actually spend anytime associating with...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35931968
Roll on the Brexit!
Police in Arkansas wish to unlock an iPhone and iPod belonging to two teenagers accused of killing a couple, according to the Associated Press (AP).
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35933239
Trump is going to finish way clear of the field.
But
He is going out of his way to give every incentive to the party hierachy so if it's a contested convention, he may well lose the nomination.
But
The next-in-line is Cruz, who is almost as bad a candidate and would perhaps make a worse president (not that either is likely to get the chance)
But
Can the GOP really skip both leading candidates?
But
Cruz might have a little local difficulty
But
The mainstream media seems to be keeping schtum on it, Trump may have difficulty using it against him and Kasich seems disinclined to.
Also
Is Trump's refusal to back any other nominee is an excuse to pass over him or to give in to him
Because
He won't be able to register as a third-party candidate in a lot of states, as the deadlines for filing will have passed by late August in some, and others have rules that don't permit candidates from primaries to contest the general for any other party.
But
Might he run as a spoiler anyway, where he can?
And
so on and so on.
I was just in the local park when a young woman in her late teens / early twenties who was listening to the radio on her phone said: "Is it true Ronnie Corbett has died?"
I said I didn't know, and a few minutes later she was gently sobbing.
It seems odd that such a young woman would react so strongly to the death of an entertainer whose best years were well before she was born.
RIP.
It must be fun to be a politician in California, which always votes almost last after the winners for both parties are clear, to suddenly acquire important significance, perhaps for both parties.
7% of GDP is a new all time record, it's on the same level the USA reached just before they crashed in 2008.
The famous large double deficits (budget deficit and current account deficit) really point to an upcoming crash if there is not a major correction in economic policy.
It would certainly be an interesting pill for the left to swallow.
RIP
He touches states and parts of the Democrat electorate that other Republican establishment/tea party candidates really don't, without alienating too much of the base, and I think his business experience/"can't be bought" lines were powerful ones. His policy thoughts on things like healthcare were brave and well thought through too.
Unfortunately he truly has NO filter, and insulting everyone with no diplomacy or judgment as to when to rein it in, advocating petty violence against disrupters, as well as taking anti-immigration rhetoric to the max, may have done for him.
https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/715507299213819905
I have been hearing about the need for a weaker pound for as long as I can remember, and, overall, in my lifetime the pound has become a lot weaker as has our industrial base. The plea that a weak pound helps exporters seems reasonable and is frequently parrotted; unfortunately it seems never to work out that way.
Contrast the UK's long term performance with that of Germany. The latter, until the advent of the Euro, built one of the most successful exporting economies on the planet on the basis of an ever strengthening currency. If Germany can do it why can't we?
I suspect the answer lies in the piss poor management and short-termism of our managerial class, but I stand to be corrected.
Does anyone out there like him?
Why do people still vote for him?
Ozzy has made the easy calls and none of the hard ones. He now has no political capital left to make them - having pissed it away needlessly on pasties, nobbling the disabled, Remain, etc, etc. How are we going to wipe out these two deficits? I don't see any 'in it together' major efforts coming along. There are too many ringfenced areas, too many sacred cows. Pensioners, int'l aid, EU subs, NHS, etc - such that all the heavy lifting is pushed onto a far too narrow slice of the economy.
What will happen is that he (we) will fail and then the market will impose the necessary corrections. This is rarely good. At some point UK debt will get expensive. The Pound will collapse. Austerity will become real.
I've been a bit confused to see people talking about the Northeast primaries as guaranteed Clinton blowouts -- it's the most left-wing part of the country, and most of the states are whiter than the national average too (though admittedly the fact most of them are closed to independents harms Sanders). Sanders will give her a good run for her money in a lot of them I think, though not enough to actually win the nomination.
Care to take a guess at when that will be?
The one good thing about such a recession/crash is that it will finally lay bare Osborne's hopeless stewardship of the economy and his failure to "fix the roof while the sun shines" and thus finally put paid to his political ambitions.
I've got faith in the USA's most cynical political machine.
But still, I think he could have beaten Hillary.
The deficit is going down and trending towards a surplus.
Household debt to GDP is also going down.
The opposite was true for both of these before the last crash. We are going in the right direction at least.
"Dear Martin, can you please let us know the straight facts of what'll happen if we leave the EU?"
I've been swamped with many people asking me this question. So I want to answer.... "no I can't!" And if anyone else tells you they can, they are a liar.
The EU issue isn't black or white. I find it very frustrating that most politicians who are pro-EU say all elements of the EU are good; and most politicians who are anti say all elements are bad. Neither is true, like the rest of life it's a mix.
There are no simple answers. What'll happen if we leave is uncertain. What will happen if we stay is more certain - though still not without some questions and risks.
Don't read 'uncertain' as bad. Read it simply as uncertain.
It may be that leaving makes the UK a tiger economy in control of its own destiny, and we reap the benefits; or we end up on the outskirts of everything, ignored and struggling with trade. Or more likely somewhere in between.
You have to make this decision based on your political attitude to Europe, how risk averse you are and what your gut instinct tells you.
And even after that you need to accept you may make a good decision and have a bad outcome. Or make a bad decision then have a good one.
Martin
I can't find any today.
George isn't listening
lets buy more stuff from China.
My solution is to increase supply by a liberalisation of planning laws and reduction in the greenbelt but that's a non starter politically.
Others solution is to slash immigration to reduce demand but that hasn't happened and will have knock on effects elsewhere.
Either way though it's not the macroeconomic situation which is causing house prices in isolation.
totally avoidable if action is taken, but then you look at how they handled the steel crisis.....
For me, with US dollar liabilities and sterling income it is a little bit of a bind, but I suspect that your sympathy for people in my position may be limited