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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a “Bradley effect” in the Mayoral race it’ll ha

SystemSystem Posts: 11,016
edited April 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a “Bradley effect” in the Mayoral race it’ll have a lower impact in London than elsewhere

There has been a fair bit of talked about a possible “Bradley effect in the London mayoral election on May 5th. This refers to the well observed effect of people telling pollsters that they will support a non-white candidate when in fact they don’t end up doing so.

Read the full story here


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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,375
    edited April 2016
    Nah, we Brits aren't racist nor Islamophobic as a whole.

    I mean in the not so distant future we could see the Tory Party led by Sajid Javid and Labour led by Sadiq Khan
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    FPT:
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Defection watch

    Tory activist Shazia Awan: Zac Goldsmith’s damaging, exploitative and ugly campaign puts me off politics as a BME candidate

    The former Conservative party parliamentary candidate for Leigh claims the Tory London mayoral campaign is dragging the party back to the days of Enoch Powell.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/04/tory-activist-shazia-awan-zac-goldsmith-s-damaging-exploitative-and-ugly

    Having leaflets aimed at different ethnic groups may come over as a bit patronising, but it's hardly "damaging, exploitative, and ugly." Labour and other parties do it as well.

    As you imply, I think she's made up her mind to switch sides, and is just looking for a pretext to do so.
    I'm still struggling to contemplate how a Tory 2015 Tory candidate can switch to a Corbyn led Labour party. I would have said it would be the same probability as Ken Clarke joining UKIP.
    I doubt she will actually switch to Labour, but I have to admit I'm surprised to see you defending Zac Goldsmith's campaign.

    You've quite rightly said how disgusting Phil Woolas's campaign was, but I don't see how Goldsmith's is any different.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    Betting post:

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  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nah, we Brits aren't racist nor Islamophobic as a whole.

    I mean in the not so distant future we could see the Tory Party led by Sajid Javid and Labour led by Sadiq Khan

    Bloody bus drivers taking over the country.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,375
    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Defection watch

    Tory activist Shazia Awan: Zac Goldsmith’s damaging, exploitative and ugly campaign puts me off politics as a BME candidate

    The former Conservative party parliamentary candidate for Leigh claims the Tory London mayoral campaign is dragging the party back to the days of Enoch Powell.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/04/tory-activist-shazia-awan-zac-goldsmith-s-damaging-exploitative-and-ugly

    Having leaflets aimed at different ethnic groups may come over as a bit patronising, but it's hardly "damaging, exploitative, and ugly." Labour and other parties do it as well.

    As you imply, I think she's made up her mind to switch sides, and is just looking for a pretext to do so.
    I'm still struggling to contemplate how a Tory 2015 Tory candidate can switch to a Corbyn led Labour party. I would have said it would be the same probability as Ken Clarke joining UKIP.
    I doubt she will actually switch to Labour, but I have to admit I'm surprised to see you defending Zac Goldsmith's campaign.

    You've quite rightly said how disgusting Phil Woolas's campaign was, but I don't see how Goldsmith's is any different.
    Zac Goldsmith's campaign is just like him, very disappointing.

    But I don't think it is racist or Islamophobic.

    Voter groups aren't homogeneous, you target them differently.

    Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have heavily focussed on African American voters, you wouldn't call them racists.

    Nor is Sadiq Khan when he produced a leaflet in Hebrew

    http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/156003/sadiq-khan-enjoys-positive-walkabout-golders-green
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,375
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nah, we Brits aren't racist nor Islamophobic as a whole.

    I mean in the not so distant future we could see the Tory Party led by Sajid Javid and Labour led by Sadiq Khan

    Bloody bus drivers taking over the country.
    You wait ages for one son of an immigrant bus driver to become leader of his party, and then two of them arrive at the same
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2016
    Personally, I suspect Goldsmith's campaign has seriously harmed his chances. It seems to have been forgotten that, back in September, he actually had quite a healthy lead over Khan in the polls, before the campaign of "he's Muslim, therefore he's dangerous" started in earnest.

    Goldsmith fit the profile for a Tory who could win: Londoners clearly like someone who isn't afraid to ruffle feathers and has the balls to speak out against the party line when necessary, which Goldsmith has shown much more willingness to do than the ultra-loyalist Khan. But a race-baiting campaign was surely always likely to just fire up Muslim voters and "right-on" Millennials (who otherwise might not have bothered turning out).
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Modern day Greens are lefties first and greens second - however green a tory candidate is they'd back a leftist alternative as second preference.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nah, we Brits aren't racist nor Islamophobic as a whole.

    I mean in the not so distant future we could see the Tory Party led by Sajid Javid and Labour led by Sadiq Khan

    Bloody bus drivers taking over the country.
    You wait for ages and then two come along at once...
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,597
    "Sadiq’s support from London BME voters"

    Don't assume that Khan gets a boost from his ethnicity/religion among Hindu & Sikh voters. The Zac camp are well aware of this, and are playing to it.

    Lumping all voters from a south-asian background together can result in some very wrong assumptions. Let's see how Sadiq's vote in Southall compares with Ken's from last time, for example.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    If you like your golf, SkyBet are going 1-4 !EIGHT! places
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Defection watch

    Tory activist Shazia Awan: Zac Goldsmith’s damaging, exploitative and ugly campaign puts me off politics as a BME candidate

    The former Conservative party parliamentary candidate for Leigh claims the Tory London mayoral campaign is dragging the party back to the days of Enoch Powell.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/04/tory-activist-shazia-awan-zac-goldsmith-s-damaging-exploitative-and-ugly

    Having leaflets aimed at different ethnic groups may come over as a bit patronising, but it's hardly "damaging, exploitative, and ugly." Labour and other parties do it as well.

    As you imply, I think she's made up her mind to switch sides, and is just looking for a pretext to do so.
    I'm still struggling to contemplate how a Tory 2015 Tory candidate can switch to a Corbyn led Labour party. I would have said it would be the same probability as Ken Clarke joining UKIP.
    I doubt she will actually switch to Labour, but I have to admit I'm surprised to see you defending Zac Goldsmith's campaign.

    You've quite rightly said how disgusting Phil Woolas's campaign was, but I don't see how Goldsmith's is any different.
    Zac Goldsmith's campaign is just like him, very disappointing.

    But I don't think it is racist or Islamophobic.

    Voter groups aren't homogeneous, you target them differently.

    Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have heavily focussed on African American voters, you wouldn't call them racists.

    Nor is Sadiq Khan when he produced a leaflet in Hebrew

    http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/156003/sadiq-khan-enjoys-positive-walkabout-golders-green
    I don't think targeting ethnic groups with specific leaflets is racist (although it doesn't say much for their much-vaunted targeting techniques: even Uma Kumaran, one of Labour's 2015 candidates, got sent one of those leaflets about the family jewelry!).

    But I stand by that the stuff about him being "divisive and dangerous", and bringing up the most tenuous links to dodgy Islamists, is.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,375
    Pulpstar said:

    If you like your golf, SkyBet are going 1-4 !EIGHT! places

    Got any tips for The Masters and the National?
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    initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    TheScreamingEagles said:



    Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have heavily focussed on African American voters, you wouldn't call them racists.

    I would. Treating people differently based purely on their race is racism.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,375
    Danny565 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Defection watch

    Tory activist Shazia Awan: Zac Goldsmith’s damaging, exploitative and ugly campaign puts me off politics as a BME candidate

    The former Conservative party parliamentary candidate for Leigh claims the Tory London mayoral campaign is dragging the party back to the days of Enoch Powell.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/04/tory-activist-shazia-awan-zac-goldsmith-s-damaging-exploitative-and-ugly

    Having leaflets aimed at different ethnic groups may come over as a bit patronising, but it's hardly "damaging, exploitative, and ugly." Labour and other parties do it as well.

    As you imply, I think she's made up her mind to switch sides, and is just looking for a pretext to do so.
    I'm still struggling to contemplate how a Tory 2015 Tory candidate can switch to a Corbyn led Labour party. I would have said it would be the same probability as Ken Clarke joining UKIP.
    I doubt she will actually switch to Labour, but I have to admit I'm surprised to see you defending Zac Goldsmith's campaign.

    You've quite rightly said how disgusting Phil Woolas's campaign was, but I don't see how Goldsmith's is any different.
    Zac Goldsmith's campaign is just like him, very disappointing.

    But I don't think it is racist or Islamophobic.

    Voter groups aren't homogeneous, you target them differently.

    Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have heavily focussed on African American voters, you wouldn't call them racists.

    Nor is Sadiq Khan when he produced a leaflet in Hebrew

    http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/156003/sadiq-khan-enjoys-positive-walkabout-golders-green
    I don't think targeting ethnic groups with specific leaflets is racist (although it doesn't say much for their much-vaunted targeting techniques: even Uma Kumaran, one of Labour's 2015 candidates, got sent one of those leaflets about the family jewelry!).

    But I stand by that the stuff about him being "divisive and dangerous", and bringing up the most tenuous links to dodgy Islamists, is.
    Have you got links to him bringing up tenuous links to dodgy Islamists?
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    BME's seem a lot more racist than whites according to these findings.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,193
    Norm said:

    Modern day Greens are lefties first and greens second - however green a tory candidate is they'd back a leftist alternative as second preference.

    Not true of all. That's why some are called Watermelons.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One thing to note: London's demographics change very rapidly. Every year nearly 400,000 people leave London and a different group of nearly 400,000 people arrive. The electorate this year will be quite different from the electorate in 2012. I don't envy pollsters trying to keep up.

    That said, it's hard to see past a Sadiq Khan victory.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Danny565 said:

    Personally, I suspect Goldsmith's campaign has seriously harmed his chances. It seems to have been forgotten that, back in September, he actually had quite a healthy lead over Khan in the polls, before the campaign of "he's Muslim, therefore he's dangerous" started in earnest.

    Goldsmith fit the profile for a Tory who could win: Londoners clearly like someone who isn't afraid to ruffle feathers and has the balls to speak out against the party line when necessary, which Goldsmith has shown much more willingness to do than the ultra-loyalist Khan. But a race-baiting campaign was surely always likely to just fire up Muslim voters and "right-on" Millennials (who otherwise might not have bothered turning out).

    As much as Goldsmith's campaign leaves a lot to be desired, he never had a healthy lead over Khan. The only time he did was before Khan was selected as candidate.
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    initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    But clearly most people would rather be wooed by racists than punched in the face by them so it tends not to result in the same level of condemnation. However, if a white president talked about some perceived white plight the way Obama talks about blacks he would be condemned as racist extremely rapidly.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,375
    edited April 2016
    initforthemoney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:



    Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have heavily focussed on African American voters, you wouldn't call them racists.

    I would. Treating people differently based purely on their race is racism.
    Voters have different priorities.

    Last year we customised our approach to different voters.

    If family A's main priority was education, we banged on about education.

    If family B's main priority was the NHS, we banged on about the NHS.

    If family C's main priority was immigration, we banged on about how a vote for UKIP would allow Ed Miliband and the SNP to take power.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    rottenborough said:

    Norm said:

    Modern day Greens are lefties first and greens second - however green a tory candidate is they'd back a leftist alternative as second preference.

    Not true of all. That's why some are called Watermelons.
    Green on the outside, red on the inside.

    You've picked the wrong subsample in your "some" to "all" refutation.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :smiley:

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,924
    Danny565 said:

    Personally, I suspect Goldsmith's campaign has seriously harmed his chances. It seems to have been forgotten that, back in September, he actually had quite a healthy lead over Khan in the polls, before the campaign of "he's Muslim, therefore he's dangerous" started in earnest.

    Goldsmith fit the profile for a Tory who could win: Londoners clearly like someone who isn't afraid to ruffle feathers and has the balls to speak out against the party line when necessary, which Goldsmith has shown much more willingness to do than the ultra-loyalist Khan. But a race-baiting campaign was surely always likely to just fire up Muslim voters and "right-on" Millennials (who otherwise might not have bothered turning out).

    I don't live in London anymore, but am down there a fair bit (two or three times a week). Goldsmith's really big problem, as far as I can tell, is that he is just not on the radar as much as Khan. Even in the Standard, Khan seems to get a lot more coverage - and the paper is certainly not supporting Goldsmith in the very aggressive way it supported Boris in 2008 and 2012. Khan seems to have run a very good campaign - business-friendly, inclusive, a big focus on housing, distanced from Corbyn. In many ways, it is the model of what Labour more generally should be. Goldsmith has struggled to get traction or to set out why he actually wants to be mayor. Khan's big problems are (a) what he has said in the past about quotas etc, (b) the Corbyn factor, and (c) the turnout. I don't think ethnicity per se has much to do with it all. It would be interesting to see the social class breakdowns. If better off and older white voters are tending towards Goldsmith that's just the usual Tory vote, isn't it?

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,202
    edited April 2016
    Danny565 said:

    Personally, I suspect Goldsmith's campaign has seriously harmed his chances. It seems to have been forgotten that, back in September, he actually had quite a healthy lead over Khan in the polls, before the campaign of "he's Muslim, therefore he's dangerous" started in earnest.

    Goldsmith fit the profile for a Tory who could win: Londoners clearly like someone who isn't afraid to ruffle feathers and has the balls to speak out against the party line when necessary, which Goldsmith has shown much more willingness to do than the ultra-loyalist Khan. But a race-baiting campaign was surely always likely to just fire up Muslim voters and "right-on" Millennials (who otherwise might not have bothered turning out).

    Goldsmith's campaign has not been race-baiting. There are quite a number of legitimate questions to be asked of Khan about some of his associations and previous and/or inconsistent answers. There's a slipperiness which is worrying. And since he has been the first to play the "Let's elect a Muslim as Mayor and send out a Message" and "Only I can take on Muslim extremists" cards it is perfectly legitimate to ask what kind of a Muslim he is and how close or otherwise he has been and continues to be with Muslim extremists.

    IMO Khan should never have made his Muslimness or, indeed, his background an issue. They say nothing about his talents or qualifications or ability to be a Mayor. It would be like saying that the fact that my parents were born abroad and I belong to a religious minority somehow qualified me to be Mayor.

    If Labour want to play the identity politics card then they have to expect their opponents to play it against them.

    But Goldsmith has been feeble about this and generally a bit feeble about everything. He's simply too disengaged - or that is the appearance he gives.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    SandyRentool said:

    "Sadiq’s support from London BME voters"

    Don't assume that Khan gets a boost from his ethnicity/religion among Hindu & Sikh voters. The Zac camp are well aware of this, and are playing to it.

    Lumping all voters from a south-asian background together can result in some very wrong assumptions. Let's see how Sadiq's vote in Southall compares with Ken's from last time, for example.

    Yes, good point. Do we have anything to compare with polls from 2012? Is Zac winning a greater proportion of white voters than Boris?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,394
    Cyclefree said:

    Danny565 said:

    Personally, I suspect Goldsmith's campaign has seriously harmed his chances. It seems to have been forgotten that, back in September, he actually had quite a healthy lead over Khan in the polls, before the campaign of "he's Muslim, therefore he's dangerous" started in earnest.

    Goldsmith fit the profile for a Tory who could win: Londoners clearly like someone who isn't afraid to ruffle feathers and has the balls to speak out against the party line when necessary, which Goldsmith has shown much more willingness to do than the ultra-loyalist Khan. But a race-baiting campaign was surely always likely to just fire up Muslim voters and "right-on" Millennials (who otherwise might not have bothered turning out).

    Goldsmith's campaign has not been race-baiting. There are quite a number of legitimate questions to be asked of Khan about some of his associations and previous and/or inconsistent. There's a slipperiness which is worrying. And since he has been the first to play the "Let's elect a Muslim as Mayor and send out a Message" and "Only I can take on Muslim extremists" cards it is perfectly legitimate to ask what kind of a Muslim he is and how close or otherwise he has been and continues to be with Muslim extremists.

    IMO Khan should never have made his Muslimness or, indeed, his background an issue. They say nothing about his talents or qualifications or ability to be a Mayor. It would be like saying that the fact that my parents were born abroad and I belong to a religious minority somehow qualified me to be Mayor.

    If Labour want to play the identity politics card then they have to expect their opponents to play it against them.

    But Goldsmith has been feeble about this and generally a bit feeble about everything. He's simply too disengaged - or that is the appearance he gives.
    I do wonder whether he's getting the support one would expect. In my experience it's a 'team' thing. Look at how much less gaffe-prone Corbyn has become since reportedly becoming involved with Damian McBride. One would expect political leaders to automatically have 'West Wing' style teams at their disposal, but I don't think it's automatic.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Miss Cyclefree, as is known, I am far from a Londoner, but Goldsmith comes across as a wet lettuce.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2016
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Look at how much less gaffe-prone Corbyn has become since reportedly becoming involved with Damian McBride.

    No...no gaffe's.....only the comments in regards to his brother and the Zionist conspiracies nonsense....his response to tax havens was also genius....his budget response was laughably bad.

    It is only because Cameron has his own difficulties, which he has handled badly and all the papers are focused on it / going for him (for different reasons) that it makes it seem like Corbyn hasn't gaffed.

    And the budget was self inflicted by Osborne trying to be to Brownian.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Fpt:
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I seem to remember a lot of mockery on here from the Red Leicester Leavers about the Tampon Tax victory. It seems as though it may have been rather more significant than was first appreciated:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b01bd53c-fc98-11e5-b3f6-11d5706b613b.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz458FGptnx

    "Fed up with being dragged into political squabbles over VAT rates on everything from tampons to ebooks, the European Commission on Thursday proposed a major overhaul that would transfer decision-making on the tax from Brussels to national capitals."

    "Pierre Moscovici, the European commissioner for tax, on Thursday said he was “keen to grant member states more autonomy on how to define their VAT reduced rates” and set out two options for reform.

    One option under consideration by the commission would see the list of goods and services eligible for reduced rates updated more regularly, so making it more flexible. The current version has been little updated since the 1970s.

    Another more radical option would be to scrap the list entirely so that national governments would have more freedom when deciding where to apply reduced rate, with only some guiding principles from the EU. This approach would mean scrapping the standard 15 per cent VAT rate altogether. Mr Moscovici said his intention is for governments to discuss which option they prefer ahead of the commission coming forward with legislation in 2017."

    I seem to recall saying at the time that merely extending an EU wide exemption to Tampons made little sense - and would be a can kicking exercise - as really the power to zero rate and indeed vary from the lower limit in times of emergency would get more to the heart of the issue. Good news if the EU do this - though remains to be seen if there will be a fudge.

    I can't remember the Red Leicester leavers derevation - but it is rather cute!
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'd have voted for Tessa Jowell - Zac isn't a Tory, it's a flag of convenience to get elected IMO.
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Cyclefree, as is known, I am far from a Londoner, but Goldsmith comes across as a wet lettuce.

  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Defection watch

    Tory activist Shazia Awan: Zac Goldsmith’s damaging, exploitative and ugly campaign puts me off politics as a BME candidate

    The former Conservative party parliamentary candidate for Leigh claims the Tory London mayoral campaign is dragging the party back to the days of Enoch Powell.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/04/tory-activist-shazia-awan-zac-goldsmith-s-damaging-exploitative-and-ugly

    Having leaflets aimed at different ethnic groups may come over as a bit patronising, but it's hardly "damaging, exploitative, and ugly." Labour and other parties do it as well.

    As you imply, I think she's made up her mind to switch sides, and is just looking for a pretext to do so.
    I'm still struggling to contemplate how a Tory 2015 Tory candidate can switch to a Corbyn led Labour party. I would have said it would be the same probability as Ken Clarke joining UKIP.
    I doubt she will actually switch to Labour, but I have to admit I'm surprised to see you defending Zac Goldsmith's campaign.

    You've quite rightly said how disgusting Phil Woolas's campaign was, but I don't see how Goldsmith's is any different.
    The Goldsmith campaign isn't racist, it's just rubbish and low energy. Very much like the candidate, unfortunately.

    As for the thread, the graph shows why Zac is still in the running, with Khan's support coming so heavily from BME backgrounds, there is no guarantee they will turn out to vote on the day.
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Cyclefree, as is known, I am far from a Londoner, but Goldsmith comes across as a wet lettuce.

    Zac Goldsmith brings Captain Mark Phillips' old army nickname of " Fog " to mind. He both thick and wet.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Miss Plato, what's blue on the outside and green on the inside? A mouldy cucumber?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    WTF...

    SNP election agent is condemned as 'a disgrace' after comparing David Cameron and Boris Johnson to child killers Ian Brady and Myra Hindley

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3526743/SNP-election-agent-condemned-disgrace-comparing-David-Cameron-Boris-Johnson-child-killers-Ian-Brady-Myra-Hindley.html
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    Tory Youth (or whatever they are called these days) doesn't have many members at Exeter Uni ;-)
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited April 2016
    I follow the BackZac campaign out of curiosity and low energy doesn't come close - pitiful is more accurate. A rare email or a few tweets - I had hundreds from BackBoris.

    I'm not seeing many RT's either.
    MaxPB said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Defection watch

    Tory activist Shazia Awan: Zac Goldsmith’s damaging, exploitative and ugly campaign puts me off politics as a BME candidate

    The former Conservative party parliamentary candidate for Leigh claims the Tory London mayoral campaign is dragging the party back to the days of Enoch Powell.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/04/tory-activist-shazia-awan-zac-goldsmith-s-damaging-exploitative-and-ugly

    Having leaflets aimed at different ethnic groups may come over as a bit patronising, but it's hardly "damaging, exploitative, and ugly." Labour and other parties do it as well.

    As you imply, I think she's made up her mind to switch sides, and is just looking for a pretext to do so.
    I'm still struggling to contemplate how a Tory 2015 Tory candidate can switch to a Corbyn led Labour party. I would have said it would be the same probability as Ken Clarke joining UKIP.
    I doubt she will actually switch to Labour, but I have to admit I'm surprised to see you defending Zac Goldsmith's campaign.

    You've quite rightly said how disgusting Phil Woolas's campaign was, but I don't see how Goldsmith's is any different.
    The Goldsmith campaign isn't racist, it's just rubbish and low energy. Very much like the candidate, unfortunately.

    As for the thread, the graph shows why Zac is still in the running, with Khan's support coming so heavily from BME backgrounds, there is no guarantee they will turn out to vote on the day.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    MaxPB said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Defection watch

    Tory activist Shazia Awan: Zac Goldsmith’s damaging, exploitative and ugly campaign puts me off politics as a BME candidate

    The former Conservative party parliamentary candidate for Leigh claims the Tory London mayoral campaign is dragging the party back to the days of Enoch Powell.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/04/tory-activist-shazia-awan-zac-goldsmith-s-damaging-exploitative-and-ugly

    Having leaflets aimed at different ethnic groups may come over as a bit patronising, but it's hardly "damaging, exploitative, and ugly." Labour and other parties do it as well.

    As you imply, I think she's made up her mind to switch sides, and is just looking for a pretext to do so.
    I'm still struggling to contemplate how a Tory 2015 Tory candidate can switch to a Corbyn led Labour party. I would have said it would be the same probability as Ken Clarke joining UKIP.
    I doubt she will actually switch to Labour, but I have to admit I'm surprised to see you defending Zac Goldsmith's campaign.

    You've quite rightly said how disgusting Phil Woolas's campaign was, but I don't see how Goldsmith's is any different.
    The Goldsmith campaign isn't racist, it's just rubbish and low energy. Very much like the candidate, unfortunately.

    As for the thread, the graph shows why Zac is still in the running, with Khan's support coming so heavily from BME backgrounds, there is no guarantee they will turn out to vote on the day.
    Zac seems to have assumed that all south asian households have mountains of "family jewellery" and based his campaign on that !
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    If he was serious he would make sure they were all on the register and allow schools and colleges to register for them to increase registration.Getting them to vote is another matter-proxy votes are probably the best answer.A lot of these young folk are unlikely to be even registered.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    From the point of view of their respective political parties both are reasonable if not particularly exciting candidates (I think Zac's campaign is better than some on here have been saying).

    Personally, I can't say I'm enthused by either candidate. Zac's extreme anti-Heathrow position is a problem. I'm distinctly unimpressed by Sadiq's unrealistic stance on freezing fares - he was doing OK until he came out with that.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,597
    Plato_Says said:

    I'd have voted for Tessa Jowell - Zac isn't a Tory, it's a flag of convenience to get elected IMO.

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Cyclefree, as is known, I am far from a Londoner, but Goldsmith comes across as a wet lettuce.

    If it had been Tessa v Zac, I'd have probably voted for Zac!
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    edited April 2016
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    Tory Youth (or whatever they are called these days) doesn't have many members at Exeter Uni ;-)
    I predict more people will take selfies at that event than actually decide to vote in the election because of Cameron's appearance.

    Incidentally, hasn't Exeter broken up for Easter hols? Wonder who the audience are...
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,924
    There were a lot of left-inclined voters who could not bring themselves to vote for Ken in 2012. Khan does not seem to be attracting the same level of opprobrium.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    RACIST THREAD HEADER!!!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    volcanopete said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    If he was serious he would make sure they were all on the register and allow schools and colleges to register for them to increase registration.Getting them to vote is another matter-proxy votes are probably the best answer.A lot of these young folk are unlikely to be even registered.
    I'd bet 95+% of those in that room are registered. Of course many many more at U of Exeter won't be.
    Bit like the Yougov surveys, the PM is talking to the politically interested (Mostly remain) young converted already.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,597
    volcanopete said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    If he was serious he would make sure they were all on the register and allow schools and colleges to register for them to increase registration.Getting them to vote is another matter-proxy votes are probably the best answer.A lot of these young folk are unlikely to be even registered.
    Great irony - he gets them off the register to help with the new boundaries, and then realises that he needs their votes in the referendum.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,330
    I think it's going to be primarily a turnout thing - my social circle (not Labour members but people I see for poker etc.) is probably averagely political (i.e. not much). They talk a bit about the referendum and a bit about perceived national politician evils but they hardly ever mention the Mayoral election even though we all live in London. The Standard is diligently plugging away with stories on page 2 etc. but I'm not seeing much sign of a passionate echo.

    Labour has a lot more foot soldiers in London and the Khan campaign is more focused on things that most people care about (housing in particular), but the usual issues of registration and commitment arise with particular force here. I think Khan will win but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,811
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    Tory Youth (or whatever they are called these days) doesn't have many members at Exeter Uni ;-)
    I think they're now Conservative Future. I expect most of them would vote Leave.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2016
    Mortimer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    Tory Youth (or whatever they are called these days) doesn't have many members at Exeter Uni ;-)
    I predict more people will take selfies at that event than actually decide to vote in the election because of Cameron's appearance.

    Incidentally, hasn't Exeter broken up for Easter hols? Wonder who the audience are...
    Uni's don't stop outside of term times ;-) ....just the annoying under-grads disappear, letting staff actually get on with research.

    A serious answer, they could be anybody really couldn't they. Not exactly a big turn-out whoever they are.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    edited April 2016
    http://www.newstatesman.com

    “Goldsmith assumed all the 120,000 Sikhs were middle-class Hindus, running family businesses, concerned about burglaries and possessions whilst welcoming to Modi’s UK visit last year.”

    One Tory source tells me it is as if the campaign has “found a bumper book of surnames” and just spewed mailouts to them without much nuance.

    Arf.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,811
    volcanopete said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    If he was serious he would make sure they were all on the register and allow schools and colleges to register for them to increase registration.Getting them to vote is another matter-proxy votes are probably the best answer.A lot of these young folk are unlikely to be even registered.
    I would expect that most students would be registered to vote at their parents' address.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From the point of view of their respective political parties both are reasonable if not particularly exciting candidates (I think Zac's campaign is better than some on here have been saying).

    Personally, I can't say I'm enthused by either candidate. Zac's extreme anti-Heathrow position is a problem. I'm distinctly unimpressed by Sadiq's unrealistic stance on freezing fares - he was doing OK until he came out with that.

    The thing that dives me crazy about both Zac & Khan is their opposition to Uber as well as HS2 and Heathrow expansion.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From the point of view of their respective political parties both are reasonable if not particularly exciting candidates (I think Zac's campaign is better than some on here have been saying).

    Personally, I can't say I'm enthused by either candidate. Zac's extreme anti-Heathrow position is a problem. I'm distinctly unimpressed by Sadiq's unrealistic stance on freezing fares - he was doing OK until he came out with that.

    Agreed.

    The 'wascism' suggestions seem to be more the activist/media storm than any sort of reality in voters' minds...

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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    There's no question, I'm afraid, that this is the direction in which British politics is heading. We won't perhaps get as monolithic as voting patterns in NI are, but we are going in broadly the same direction. The ethnic divide will get even starker as the last remnants of the mining culture disappear.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,202
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Danny565 said:

    Personally, I suspect Goldsmith's campaign has seriously harmed his chances. It seems to have been forgotten that, back in September, he actually had quite a healthy lead over Khan in the polls, before the campaign of "he's Muslim, therefore he's dangerous" started in earnest.

    Goldsmith fit the profile for a Tory who could win: Londoners clearly like someone who isn't afraid to ruffle feathers and has the balls to speak out against the party line when necessary, which Goldsmith has shown much more willingness to do than the ultra-loyalist Khan. But a race-baiting campaign was surely always likely to just fire up Muslim voters and "right-on" Millennials (who otherwise might not have bothered turning out).

    Goldsmith's campaign has not been race-baiting. There are quite a number of legitimate questions to be asked of Khan about some of his associations and previous and/or inconsistent. There's a slipperiness which is worrying. And since he has been the first to play the "Let's elect a Muslim as Mayor and send out a Message" and "Only I can take on Muslim extremists" cards it is perfectly legitimate to ask what kind of a Muslim he is and how close or otherwise he has been and continues to be with Muslim extremists.

    IMO Khan should never have made his Muslimness or, indeed, his background an issue. They say nothing about his talents or qualifications or ability to be a Mayor. It would be like saying that the fact that my parents were born abroad and I belong to a religious minority somehow qualified me to be Mayor.

    If Labour want to play the identity politics card then they have to expect their opponents to play it against them.

    But Goldsmith has been feeble about this and generally a bit feeble about everything. He's simply too disengaged - or that is the appearance he gives.
    I do wonder whether he's getting the support one would expect. In my experience it's a 'team' thing. Look at how much less gaffe-prone Corbyn has become since reportedly becoming involved with Damian McBride. One would expect political leaders to automatically have 'West Wing' style teams at their disposal, but I don't think it's automatic.
    I can't comment on that but I think he lacks the personality of a Boris and so has struggled to make himself heard and has not been particularly effective at setting out what he wants to do as Mayor. That said, I have received far more literature from Goldsmith than from Labour (only 1 a few days ago from Labour).



  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    MikeSmithson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From the point of view of their respective political parties both are reasonable if not particularly exciting candidates (I think Zac's campaign is better than some on here have been saying).

    Personally, I can't say I'm enthused by either candidate. Zac's extreme anti-Heathrow position is a problem. I'm distinctly unimpressed by Sadiq's unrealistic stance on freezing fares - he was doing OK until he came out with that.

    The thing that dives me crazy about both Zac & Khan is their opposition to Uber as well as HS2 and Heathrow expansion.
    Just beggars belief - from almost all perspectives the clever call would be to back Uber...
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,309
    MikeSmithson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From the point of view of their respective political parties both are reasonable if not particularly exciting candidates (I think Zac's campaign is better than some on here have been saying).

    Personally, I can't say I'm enthused by either candidate. Zac's extreme anti-Heathrow position is a problem. I'm distinctly unimpressed by Sadiq's unrealistic stance on freezing fares - he was doing OK until he came out with that.

    The thing that dives me crazy about both Zac & Khan is their opposition to Uber as well as HS2 and Heathrow expansion.
    We agree on something.

    I agree with you on all of those.
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    initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    edited April 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:



    Voters have different priorities.

    Last year we customised our approach to different voters.

    If family A's main priority was education, we banged on about education.

    If family B's main priority was the NHS, we banged on about the NHS.

    If family C's main priority was immigration, we banged on about how a vote for UKIP would allow Ed Miliband and the SNP to take power.

    i understand targeting. a similar approach to tailoring one's cv to the job one is applying for (which makes me feel like a miserable sell-out tbh).

    did you use race to help determine which was their likely main priority?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    runnymede said:

    There's no question, I'm afraid, that this is the direction in which British politics is heading. We won't perhaps get as monolithic as voting patterns in NI are, but we are going in broadly the same direction. The ethnic divide will get even starker as the last remnants of the mining culture disappear.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Target 18 for the Tories in 2020.

    My vote will actually count ! I never like that.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    Most of the undergraduates are away from Exeter this week.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    UK Polling Report "With second preferences reallocated it works out at KHAN 55%, GOLDSMITH 45%".
    But, are these Khan supporters registered? Since the last London Mayor elections the voter register has tightened. There have also been large movements of people which probably result in as many as 15% of adults unregistered. Most of these would be Khan supporters (younger, BME etc). The gap between them may therefore be very small and the scale of leads shown for Khan.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    MikeSmithson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From the point of view of their respective political parties both are reasonable if not particularly exciting candidates (I think Zac's campaign is better than some on here have been saying).

    Personally, I can't say I'm enthused by either candidate. Zac's extreme anti-Heathrow position is a problem. I'm distinctly unimpressed by Sadiq's unrealistic stance on freezing fares - he was doing OK until he came out with that.

    The thing that dives me crazy about both Zac & Khan is their opposition to Uber as well as HS2 and Heathrow expansion.
    I would have thought Gatwick would be the preferred option of a resident of Bedford?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,394
    Cyclefree said:



    I can't comment on that but I think he lacks the personality of a Boris and so has struggled to make himself heard and has not been particularly effective at setting out what he wants to do as Mayor. That said, I have received far more literature from Goldsmith than from Labour (only 1 a few days ago from Labour).

    I think I'd be pairing him with Boris all the time - the other face of Boris, Boris part deux, the Yin to Boris' Yang. 'Boris has brought the good times, Zac will ensure all Londoners enjoy the fruits' - that sort of stuff. I know I'm all for negative campaigning, but London is a bit of a special case, and I'd go for cheery optimism and flag waving on a big scale. Might end up making Boris look a bit magnanimous and actually useful too, taking attention off his elephant on a tightrope act over Europe. Tories will be grateful if he helps secure the London Mayoralty.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2016
    dr_spyn said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    Most of the undergraduates are away from Exeter this week.
    Obviously nobody told the PM's team that....preaching to the staff...

    Does Dave always have to stand in front of a spiral staircase?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,309
    Mortimer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    Tory Youth (or whatever they are called these days) doesn't have many members at Exeter Uni ;-)
    I predict more people will take selfies at that event than actually decide to vote in the election because of Cameron's appearance.

    Incidentally, hasn't Exeter broken up for Easter hols? Wonder who the audience are...
    I doubt that very many of them are Exeter Conservative Future.

    When I ran Bristol University branch we'd be lucky to get two dozen for a political speaker from a society of about 120.

    For the PM, you'd advertise more widely and get a much better turnout from a much broader range of students.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Am I the only one with a broken quote button?

    Anyway, @MikeSmithson, what links their opposition to Uber, HS2 and Heathrow expansion is an intense small c conservativism, a fear of a changing world. A radical forward-looking candidate would be able to vigorously make the case to the public for these as part of a wider pitch for developing London into the 2020s (full disclosure, I'm personally sceptical about both HS2 and Heathrow expansion, but that's not the point).
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    dr_spyn said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    Most of the undergraduates are away from Exeter this week.
    The students in that photo look too old to be undergrads actually.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mortimer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    Tory Youth (or whatever they are called these days) doesn't have many members at Exeter Uni ;-)
    I predict more people will take selfies at that event than actually decide to vote in the election because of Cameron's appearance.

    Incidentally, hasn't Exeter broken up for Easter hols? Wonder who the audience are...
    Uni's don't stop outside of term times ;-) ....just the annoying under-grads disappear, letting staff actually get on with research.

    A serious answer, they could be anybody really couldn't they. Not exactly a big turn-out whoever they are.

    Indeed.

    A great PR photo for Remain activists - probably changes fewer than 10 votes....

    Market stall in Exeter centre would be a much more useful event for the PM - but he doesn't seem to have the Major soapbox touch does he....
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MaxPB said:



    As for the thread, the graph shows why Zac is still in the running, with Khan's support coming so heavily from BME backgrounds, there is no guarantee they will turn out to vote on the day.

    But that's my point: BMEs (specifically Muslims in this case) do often not turn out, and they might well not have turned out if Zac had presented himself as a non-threatening candidate like Boris did - but one thing that will get them out is if they think there's a risk of racists getting in. Look what happened in Oldham West.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,375
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Am I the only one with a broken quote button?

    Anyway, @MikeSmithson, what links their opposition to Uber, HS2 and Heathrow expansion is an intense small c conservativism, a fear of a changing world. A radical forward-looking candidate would be able to vigorously make the case to the public for these as part of a wider pitch for developing London into the 2020s (full disclosure, I'm personally sceptical about both HS2 and Heathrow expansion, but that's not the point).

    If you're using IE or safari, there's an issue with the quote button.

    With other browsers, logging out, clearing cookies and history and logging back in fixes it.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    volcanopete said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    If he was serious he would make sure they were all on the register and allow schools and colleges to register for them to increase registration.Getting them to vote is another matter-proxy votes are probably the best answer.A lot of these young folk are unlikely to be even registered.
    Particularly the overseas contingent, I would hope that Cameron has the guts to go up to Manchester University to address the students there.

    https://www.studentmoneysaver.co.uk/article/students-union-try-to-ban-manipulative-cameron-from-campus/
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,375
    Pulpstar said:

    runnymede said:

    There's no question, I'm afraid, that this is the direction in which British politics is heading. We won't perhaps get as monolithic as voting patterns in NI are, but we are going in broadly the same direction. The ethnic divide will get even starker as the last remnants of the mining culture disappear.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Target 18 for the Tories in 2020.

    My vote will actually count ! I never like that.
    Try living in the seat that might actually determine the make up of the next government!

    I've never seen anything like it.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,309
    Pulpstar said:

    volcanopete said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    If he was serious he would make sure they were all on the register and allow schools and colleges to register for them to increase registration.Getting them to vote is another matter-proxy votes are probably the best answer.A lot of these young folk are unlikely to be even registered.
    I'd bet 95+% of those in that room are registered. Of course many many more at U of Exeter won't be.
    Bit like the Yougov surveys, the PM is talking to the politically interested (Mostly remain) young converted already.
    I should add, my branch was quite Right Wing.

    We led collection of signatures against the EU constitution in 2003-2004 and got over 1,500 signatures for a referendum.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Plato_Says said:

    I follow the BackZac campaign out of curiosity and low energy doesn't come close - pitiful is more accurate. A rare email or a few tweets - I had hundreds from BackBoris.

    I'm not seeing many RT's either.

    MaxPB said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Defection watch

    Tory activist Shazia Awan: Zac Goldsmith’s damaging, exploitative and ugly campaign puts me off politics as a BME candidate

    The former Conservative party parliamentary candidate for Leigh claims the Tory London mayoral campaign is dragging the party back to the days of Enoch Powell.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/04/tory-activist-shazia-awan-zac-goldsmith-s-damaging-exploitative-and-ugly

    Having leaflets aimed at different ethnic groups may come over as a bit patronising, but it's hardly "damaging, exploitative, and ugly." Labour and other parties do it as well.

    As you imply, I think she's made up her mind to switch sides, and is just looking for a pretext to do so.
    I'm still struggling to contemplate how a Tory 2015 Tory candidate can switch to a Corbyn led Labour party. I would have said it would be the same probability as Ken Clarke joining UKIP.
    I doubt she will actually switch to Labour, but I have to admit I'm surprised to see you defending Zac Goldsmith's campaign.

    You've quite rightly said how disgusting Phil Woolas's campaign was, but I don't see how Goldsmith's is any different.
    The Goldsmith campaign isn't racist, it's just rubbish and low energy. Very much like the candidate, unfortunately.

    As for the thread, the graph shows why Zac is still in the running, with Khan's support coming so heavily from BME backgrounds, there is no guarantee they will turn out to vote on the day.
    Don't you live in Sussex? Perhaps they're being more focussed.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    dr_spyn said:

    volcanopete said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    If he was serious he would make sure they were all on the register and allow schools and colleges to register for them to increase registration.Getting them to vote is another matter-proxy votes are probably the best answer.A lot of these young folk are unlikely to be even registered.
    Particularly the overseas contingent, I would hope that Cameron has the guts to go up to Manchester University to address the students there.

    https://www.studentmoneysaver.co.uk/article/students-union-try-to-ban-manipulative-cameron-from-campus/
    SAFE SPACE...SAFE SPACE...SAFE SPACE........WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Meanwhile ....

    As the government prepares to dispatch tens of millions of glossy REMAIN leaflets the Brexit campaign is ready to up their momentum ....

    http://www.annacastle.com/wp-content/uploads/Gerrit_Dou_Scholar_sharpening_a_quill_pen_wikicom.jpg
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Am I the only one with a broken quote button?

    Anyway, @MikeSmithson, what links their opposition to Uber, HS2 and Heathrow expansion is an intense small c conservativism, a fear of a changing world. A radical forward-looking candidate would be able to vigorously make the case to the public for these as part of a wider pitch for developing London into the 2020s (full disclosure, I'm personally sceptical about both HS2 and Heathrow expansion, but that's not the point).

    Good point.

    Elements of the English, Cameroonian, non-pensioner middle classes have become the vanguard of radical progress.

    The elite and working classes have become natural 60s Conservatives.

    To hark back to the last thread; that is a recipe for realignment if ever I saw one.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I've had my polling card but aside from that I don't believe I've received a single piece of literature about the Mayoral election. As usual, no one seems to be interested in my vote*.


    *Actually, that's not entirely fair. My MP, Emily Thornberry, has been assiduous in the last few years about sending leaflets regularly updating me on what she is doing.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,940
    edited April 2016
    Bird flu possibly to be confirmed in a swan found in Scotland.

    Ahem. Misheard. They're doing a news recap from a few years ago ...
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    runnymede said:

    There's no question, I'm afraid, that this is the direction in which British politics is heading. We won't perhaps get as monolithic as voting patterns in NI are, but we are going in broadly the same direction. The ethnic divide will get even starker as the last remnants of the mining culture disappear.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Target 18 for the Tories in 2020.

    My vote will actually count ! I never like that.
    The one reason part of me hopes for boundary changes, despite the fact they would screw over Labour overall, is I might live in a proper marginal for once.

    I'm in a fairly safe Labour seat now (Ellesmere Port & Neston), but I've got some of the posher parts of the Wirral to the left of me and Tory Cheshire to the right.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    edited April 2016
    The motion, which has been approved for a debate and vote by the Manchester Students' Union, reads:

    “David Cameron and his right-wing Tory government were elected by a minority of the electorate."
    “Zero students voted Tory. Therefore, we must make a stand against this undemocratic regime by banning David Cameron and his Tory government from our democratic Students’ Union and our university campus."
    “In addition, David Cameron has continually violated the safe-space policy by implementing changes to junior doctors’ NHS contracts."
    “We must fight back against the Tory steamroller which is destroying the NHS and destroying the United Kingdom and also Europe."
    “Also David Cameron has said we should vote to stay in the EU, but he is a Tory and therefore he must have lied."

    Will someone be opposing the motion, or is that not allowed under "safe space" policies ?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    Pulpstar said:

    runnymede said:

    There's no question, I'm afraid, that this is the direction in which British politics is heading. We won't perhaps get as monolithic as voting patterns in NI are, but we are going in broadly the same direction. The ethnic divide will get even starker as the last remnants of the mining culture disappear.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Target 18 for the Tories in 2020.

    My vote will actually count ! I never like that.
    That's nothing @Pulpstar !

    Ilford North is now number 7 on the list!

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Am I the only one with a broken quote button?

    Anyway, @MikeSmithson, what links their opposition to Uber, HS2 and Heathrow expansion is an intense small c conservativism, a fear of a changing world. A radical forward-looking candidate would be able to vigorously make the case to the public for these as part of a wider pitch for developing London into the 2020s (full disclosure, I'm personally sceptical about both HS2 and Heathrow expansion, but that's not the point).

    If you're using IE or safari, there's an issue with the quote button.

    With other browsers, logging out, clearing cookies and history and logging back in fixes it.
    My Safari is working fine......

    Anyroad up, looks like Labour's anti-semitism problem isnt going away:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jewish-leader-tells-corbyn-to-tackle-antisemitism-a3220181.html
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:



    As for the thread, the graph shows why Zac is still in the running, with Khan's support coming so heavily from BME backgrounds, there is no guarantee they will turn out to vote on the day.

    But that's my point: BMEs (specifically Muslims in this case) do often not turn out, and they might well not have turned out if Zac had presented himself as a non-threatening candidate like Boris did - but one thing that will get them out is if they think there's a risk of racists getting in. Look what happened in Oldham West.
    Voter registration is going to be the issue for a lot of those voters tbh.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeSmithson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From the point of view of their respective political parties both are reasonable if not particularly exciting candidates (I think Zac's campaign is better than some on here have been saying).

    Personally, I can't say I'm enthused by either candidate. Zac's extreme anti-Heathrow position is a problem. I'm distinctly unimpressed by Sadiq's unrealistic stance on freezing fares - he was doing OK until he came out with that.

    The thing that dives me crazy about both Zac & Khan is their opposition to Uber as well as HS2 and Heathrow expansion.
    Just as frustrating is that only Boris of the "anti-Heathrow" squad has any ideas for what they would do instead.

    Pathetic.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited April 2016
    dr_spyn said:

    volcanopete said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    If he was serious he would make sure they were all on the register and allow schools and colleges to register for them to increase registration.Getting them to vote is another matter-proxy votes are probably the best answer.A lot of these young folk are unlikely to be even registered.
    Particularly the overseas contingent, I would hope that Cameron has the guts to go up to Manchester University to address the students there.

    https://www.studentmoneysaver.co.uk/article/students-union-try-to-ban-manipulative-cameron-from-campus/
    Looks like there is a troll on the wind-up studying at Manchester.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Pulpstar said:

    The motion, which has been approved for a debate and vote by the Manchester Students' Union, reads:

    “David Cameron and his right-wing Tory government were elected by a minority of the electorate."
    “Zero students voted Tory. Therefore, we must make a stand against this undemocratic regime by banning David Cameron and his Tory government from our democratic Students’ Union and our university campus."
    “In addition, David Cameron has continually violated the safe-space policy by implementing changes to junior doctors’ NHS contracts."
    “We must fight back against the Tory steamroller which is destroying the NHS and destroying the United Kingdom and also Europe."
    “Also David Cameron has said we should vote to stay in the EU, but he is a Tory and therefore he must have lied."

    Will someone be opposing the motion, or is that not allowed under "safe space" policies ?

    'Zero students' - almost certainly unprovable, and likely wrong, surely?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    The personal details and fingerprints of thousands of UK citizens could be at risk, because of a security flaw in the US Government's visa system.

    Anyone who has applied for a visa to travel to the US in the last 20 years probably has information stored in the vulnerable database. It currently contains 290 million passport-related records and 184 million visa records.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/04/06/applied-for-a-us-visa-in-the-last-20-years-your-fingerprints-and/
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    This time last year Comres London Polling gave Labour a 14 point lead in the capital for the GE. The eventual margin was 8.8.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Am I the only one with a broken quote button?

    Anyway, @MikeSmithson, what links their opposition to Uber, HS2 and Heathrow expansion is an intense small c conservativism, a fear of a changing world. A radical forward-looking candidate would be able to vigorously make the case to the public for these as part of a wider pitch for developing London into the 2020s (full disclosure, I'm personally sceptical about both HS2 and Heathrow expansion, but that's not the point).

    If you're using IE or safari, there's an issue with the quote button.

    With other browsers, logging out, clearing cookies and history and logging back in fixes it.
    My Safari is working fine......

    Anyroad up, looks like Labour's anti-semitism problem isnt going away:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jewish-leader-tells-corbyn-to-tackle-antisemitism-a3220181.html
    A complaint was sent to police today asking them to investigate whether a website shadow chancellor John McDonnell linked to had broken laws banning the glorification of terrorism.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/mp-urges-scotland-yard-to-probe-mcdonnell-row-website-a3220161.html
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    JackW said:

    Meanwhile ....

    As the government prepares to dispatch tens of millions of glossy REMAIN leaflets the Brexit campaign is ready to up their momentum ....

    http://www.annacastle.com/wp-content/uploads/Gerrit_Dou_Scholar_sharpening_a_quill_pen_wikicom.jpg

    Don't we find out next week which BREXIT Campaign get the quill?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    edited April 2016
    @mortimer Well it's a debate motion so you can put whatever rubbish you like in there. I think that's still a good thing about Student Unions, and I expect it to be vigourously opposed and roundly defeated
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,309
    JosiasJessop said:

    Bird flu possibly to be confirmed in a swan found in Scotland.

    Ahem. Misheard. They're doing a news recap from a few years ago ...

    Is this the much anticipated Black Swan for the EU ref?
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,202
    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:



    As for the thread, the graph shows why Zac is still in the running, with Khan's support coming so heavily from BME backgrounds, there is no guarantee they will turn out to vote on the day.

    But that's my point: BMEs (specifically Muslims in this case) do often not turn out, and they might well not have turned out if Zac had presented himself as a non-threatening candidate like Boris did - but one thing that will get them out is if they think there's a risk of racists getting in. Look what happened in Oldham West.
    The only candidate who even comes close to racism is Khan with his ethnic quotas nonsense. And I don't think he's a racist. Nor is Goldsmith. Khan is one who thinks - as too many do - that the characteristics he was born with are the most important thing about him, rather than his talents, achievements and ambitions. It is not a welcome development because it is, amongst many other things, conservative and backward looking (who I am is defined by my birth not what I have done in life) and fearful and closed in outlook.

    There is nothing interesting or imaginative or intelligent about a person who thinks that the best way of describing themselves is to add up a series of characteristics about themselves with an added sprinking of what their parents did. That's how you describe someone in a police or medical report. It's not how a politician or leader should present themselves.

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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    ?? I'm talking about email and Twitter activity that's location independent. I just got an email from BackZac. There's no comparison with BackBoris.
    watford30 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    I follow the BackZac campaign out of curiosity and low energy doesn't come close - pitiful is more accurate. A rare email or a few tweets - I had hundreds from BackBoris.

    I'm not seeing many RT's either.

    MaxPB said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Defection watch

    Tory activist Shazia Awan: Zac Goldsmith’s damaging, exploitative and ugly campaign puts me off politics as a BME candidate

    The former Conservative party parliamentary candidate for Leigh claims the Tory London mayoral campaign is dragging the party back to the days of Enoch Powell.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/04/tory-activist-shazia-awan-zac-goldsmith-s-damaging-exploitative-and-ugly

    Having leaflets aimed at different ethnic groups may come over as a bit patronising, but it's hardly "damaging, exploitative, and ugly." Labour and other parties do it as well.

    As you imply, I think she's made up her mind to switch sides, and is just looking for a pretext to do so.
    I'm still struggling to contemplate how a Tory 2015 Tory candidate can switch to a Corbyn led Labour party. I would have said it would be the same probability as Ken Clarke joining UKIP.
    I doubt she will actually switch to Labour, but I have to admit I'm surprised to see you defending Zac Goldsmith's campaign.

    You've quite rightly said how disgusting Phil Woolas's campaign was, but I don't see how Goldsmith's is any different.
    The Goldsmith campaign isn't racist, it's just rubbish and low energy. Very much like the candidate, unfortunately.

    As for the thread, the graph shows why Zac is still in the running, with Khan's support coming so heavily from BME backgrounds, there is no guarantee they will turn out to vote on the day.
    Don't you live in Sussex? Perhaps they're being more focussed.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    There has been the possible collapse of the Welsh steel industry, the Panama tax-dodging scandal, which has caused such grief to our Prime Minister, not to mention immigration fiascos, U.S. presidential news, horrific domestic murders.

    Yet how did BBC2’s Newsnight — the Corporation’s flagship TV current affairs programme, which has been accused of dumbing down over recent months — fill 11 minutes of airtime on Tuesday night? By inviting an obscure Irish-Nigerian Left-winger called Emma Dabiri to discuss the politically correct theory of ‘cultural appropriation’.

    Ms Dabiri claimed that white celebrities, such as pop singer Justin Bieber, who wear Rastafarian-style braids are guilty of ‘erasing’ black African culture.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3527452/Has-Newsnight-lost-plot-world-s-turmoil-BBC-s-flagship-news-pontificates-Justin-Bieber-s-non-PC-Rasta-hairstyle-oh-right-presenter-61-wears-tracksuit-bottoms-la-Posh-Rihanna.html

    And they wonder why nobody watches it anymore...
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    MikeSmithson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From the point of view of their respective political parties both are reasonable if not particularly exciting candidates (I think Zac's campaign is better than some on here have been saying).

    Personally, I can't say I'm enthused by either candidate. Zac's extreme anti-Heathrow position is a problem. I'm distinctly unimpressed by Sadiq's unrealistic stance on freezing fares - he was doing OK until he came out with that.

    The thing that dives me crazy about both Zac & Khan is their opposition to Uber as well as HS2 and Heathrow expansion.
    Absolutely right. Being against Heathrow has hurt Zac with business people and professionals. Being against the EU membership has hurt Zac with a lot of EU citizens who can vote in the mayoral election. Neither of these groups are going to vote for Khan, but they aren't going to turn up for Zac on May 5th. If Khan was a more threatening candidate like Ken I think business people would, but most figure that he is Asian and should have a basic understanding of business and is therefore non-threatening.

    I would have voted for Tessa Jowell, as would a lot of others I think. She would have been a more energetic candidate than both, and probably a better mayor. Plus she was in favoue of Heathrow and from what I can tell doesn't have an issue with Uber.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,309
    CarlottaVance said:

    JackW said:

    Meanwhile ....

    As the government prepares to dispatch tens of millions of glossy REMAIN leaflets the Brexit campaign is ready to up their momentum ....

    http://www.annacastle.com/wp-content/uploads/Gerrit_Dou_Scholar_sharpening_a_quill_pen_wikicom.jpg

    Don't we find out next week which BREXIT Campaign get the quill?
    Nick Palmer said he'd heard intell that VoteLeave had a clear lead in that.

    Don't know how true that is.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,940
    Casino_Royale said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Bird flu possibly to be confirmed in a swan found in Scotland.

    Ahem. Misheard. They're doing a news recap from a few years ago ...

    Is this the much anticipated Black Swan for the EU ref?
    Blooming immigrant birds, coming over here and giving us H5N1. We should build a wall to keep 'em out ...
This discussion has been closed.