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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Updated EURef polling tale and a reminder about tomorrow ni
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This whole leaflet business will work for Cameron only if the government is actually popular.
The government trying to persuade people who have a negative opinion about it will probably have the opposite result of the governments intention.
When I suggested that Corbyn should campaign for Remain in solid Tory areas it was more of a joke, because it will push those Tories in the opposite direction.
Between the leaftlet and Cameron visiting a University trying to convince students who hate him to vote Remain, it's pretty clear that the Remain campaign has taken my joke too literal.
And to repeat my link from a previous post: this is hilarious, at least for the admittedly limited intersection of Harry Potter fans and IT bods:
http://thesetupwizard.tumblr.com/tagged/setupwizard/chrono
From experience it is very likely that don't knows become won't votes, especially in the last week before any election.
I expect that, within the next 10 years, a leftie will be assassinated by a member of the white working class whom the jury will acquit as a "justifiable homicide". OGH will close this site down, very possibly on police advice.
Perhaps those who think this absurd would care to say which bit of it they find absurd. I am quite sure Paul Staines, for one, would love to be carried shoulder-high round a shire county town market-place after obtaining such an acquittal. And I cannot believe that what would delight him would delight no one else.
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718033421562417152
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718034606151352320
FPT
That would be a good point if the EU were a solid state, decided entity.
But it isn;t. And you are asking me to make a leap of trust towards an organisation that has done little but grab power for 40 years.
I don;t just want to take back control of immigration, I want to take away the levers the EU has to change Britain in the future. David Cameron did not give those levers away, I grant you. But he hasn't brought them back either.
My trust in the EU to deal equitably with the UK or any other country in the future in precisely zero.
That's the issue, Cameron is trying to convince the group that:
A.Hates him most.
B.Least likely to vote.
To try to win the referendum.
when I were a lad all the middle class lefties used to like to parade their working class credentials - however spurious.
these days.....less so
Alternatively it could just be that there is a long way to go and this is just filling some time before the real battle begins.
https://twitter.com/LeaveHQ/status/718085767713669122
The prime minister sold his stake in the Blairmore fund for more than £30,000 just four months before entering Downing Street.
https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392
A bad day for Cameron gets worse.
Being in the EU is like being in a permanent coalition, none of the electorate gets what it votes for, it gets maybe a few fragments of what it wants, but that is tempered by having to put up with lots of stuff it doesn't want.
Aside from that, practically we can't set any trade tariffs we want, China put 46% on our steel, we can't retaliate even if we want to, because EU tariffs are set in Brussels, and the chance of convincing 28+ other countries of doing something we want when it means nothing to them, and might cause the problems, is zero.
Practically we can't form a trade agreement with anyone we want, we can argue the merits of doing a deal with various countries, but a sovereign nation gets to negotiate its terms and then walk away from the table if it doesn't like them. If the EU does a deal with Mercosur as planned, it will make the Northern Italians and Germans very happy, and the Northern English and Scottish beef farmers very unhappy, as a sovereign nation we would never entertain such a deal.
We don't get our own seat on the WTO, we have to channel our demands through the EU, where it gets mixed with those of many other countries, and may or may not ever see the light of day at the actual WTO meeting.
Practically we don't control our own fishing waters, our court are overruled regularly by a court composed of political appointees that don't have our own country's best interests at heart. We don't control our own borders, not just in terms of immigration, but in terms of it being next to impossible to throw out people from the rest of the EU if we don't want the in our country.
Practically we will soon have a multinational border force controlling the frontiers of our country that report to a body neither elected by nor accountable to the British people, and shortly we will be contributing to a European Army that might be called into adventures that are neither supported nor approved of by the British government or people
I could go on, but that should do to be getting on with.
Although a few days ago I thought it was unfair to hold Dave accountable for what his dad did, this (depending on the exact details) could make him fair game.
Jesus wept, have these bright sparks not heard of postal votes or parental proxy voting?
Step. 2 Deny Everything.
Step. 3 Admit it.
Sad ending to a great career.
One of Sir Humphrey's adages as I recall was about not concealing things from the press that they can find out for themselves.
Keep your chin up.
It may be appropriate to point out that describing someone's reaction to being acquitted - of murder or anything else come to that - isn't and cannot be libellous. I thought Thompson was a lawyer who would've known that but perhaps I'm wrong about his profession.
As for OGH neither. If he wants to take action it's up to him, though as your ranting is clearly deranged and as Staines himself wouldn't want to support a precedent of ravings being the site owners responsibility I think your rantings are going to be laughed at rather than sued over. Sorry if laughing at you is worse than making you a self perceived martyr.
When a student I voted by post.
Mind you there are 79000 other reasons why it ain't the best day in his life.
Cameron was in PR, too!
Turnout will be the same as a highly publicized contested by-election, around 50%.
Dilemma for the BBC and The Guardian, put the boot into Cameron and risk it getting out of hand and badly damaging the Remain campaign, or handwave it away and lose a 5-star opportunity to kick the hated Tories... tricky.
Denis McShane is on LBC supporting Cameron and the taxpayer funded leaflet
*disconsolate*
And it is not just the EU acting as a single entity. We have seen Merkel unilaterally open the gates of Europe to people who, in due course, will have the ability to move freely around the EU. That decision of hers was not open to review, not open to restriction, not open to being overturned by the democratic will of the rest of the EU. Then try to imagine the histrionics in the European capitals if the UK had unilaterally opened its borders to the Indian sub-continent, because of guilt over Empire.
Can Osborne step in and fill the back, I'm sure the voters will love him.
(Joke)
The story keeps changing so often that it's hard to keep track...
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsTonight/status/718139954572840960