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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN moves back up a touch after busy day on the referend

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN moves back up a touch after busy day on the referendum markets

Renewed confidence in Cameron? REMAIN edges back up notch on Betfair #EUref market after day in which £106k matched pic.twitter.com/TEkDi00MUM

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Comments

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    First like leaf.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
  • Asking for a friend, since John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn want political journalists to publish their tax returns,

    Question: Would someone who regularly writes on a blog for politics be considered a political journalist?
  • Asking for a friend, since John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn want political journalists to publish their tax returns,

    Question: Would someone who regularly writes on a blog for politics be considered a political journalist?

    To expand on my comment on the previous thread.
    It will depend on how flattering the thread headers were.
    Don Brind - ok
    The rest of you - await the 3am knock on the door.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SeanT said:

    Relatedly:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/how-britains-pollsters-think-eu-referendum-might-g?utm_term=.ato1ERb8p#.ujdnWqw2K

    Some fascinating insights here. Generally the pollsters think REMAIN will probably edge it, but they are not at all sure.

    V interesting from Boon at Gold Standard ICM, who thinks turnout could be sub-50%, maybe down to 40%

    I disagree, but if he is right, LEAVE wins.

    If turnout is 50 or bellow then Leave wins.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Any talk of variation seems to be making a mountain out of a molehill right now.

    I'm trying to put up some blinds and if I could get them up as straight as that line I'll be rather pleased.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FPT:
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:



    There's a reason why in 1984 the citizens were given no privacy. You might want to reflect on why that was and whether you really want to live in the sort of dystopia your "make everyone tell everyone else everything about themselves" principle will create.

    We don't need to be guided by a novel in this case - we can inspect the countries where universal disclosure of tax returns is well-established, Norway and Sweden. Do you feel these are dystopic and tyranninal societies?

    I agree that the idea of informers is another matter. In theory it already exists (Crimestoppers and all that). In practice I'm not sure I want every vague suspicion reported.
    Whistleblowing/informers are another matter. A lot of Continental countries have strong cultural/historical objections to this, particularly when anonymous, for obvious reasons. The Anglo-Saxon world tends to take a different view but even we find it difficult to create an effective whistleblowing culture. How many MPs blew the whistle on their colleagues?
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/junior-doctor-claims-career-was-wrecked-by-lack-of-protection-for-whistleblowers-a3185751.html

    There is a dismal record of whistleblowers being sacked in the NHS: Dr Chris Day for example.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited April 2016

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited April 2016
    SeanT said:

    Relatedly:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/how-britains-pollsters-think-eu-referendum-might-g?utm_term=.ato1ERb8p#.ujdnWqw2K

    Some fascinating insights here. Generally the pollsters think REMAIN will probably edge it, but they are not at all sure.

    V interesting from Boon at Gold Standard ICM, who thinks turnout could be sub-50%, maybe down to 40%

    I disagree, but if he is right, LEAVE wins.

    The irony being that if that is so, then not that many people have the burning sense of injustice at the many-headed EU monster for infiltrating every corner of their lives and forcing them to have straight croissants for breakfast.

    And that the status quo is......OK!!!

    Every non-vote should be taken as for Remain.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    FPT Corbyn, there's no good reason at all for the Leader of the Opposition to help Cameron out over the Referendum, and every reason to want to see him fail. Corbyn dislikes the EU and would probably welcome a Leave vote. But that aside, he'd surely welcome divisions on the Right.

    As for TTIP, why would any left winger support it?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Relatedly:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/how-britains-pollsters-think-eu-referendum-might-g?utm_term=.ato1ERb8p#.ujdnWqw2K

    Some fascinating insights here. Generally the pollsters think REMAIN will probably edge it, but they are not at all sure.

    V interesting from Boon at Gold Standard ICM, who thinks turnout could be sub-50%, maybe down to 40%

    I disagree, but if he is right, LEAVE wins.

    The irony being that if that is so, then not that many people have the burning sense of injustice at the many-headed EU monster for infiltrating every corner of their lives and forcing them to have straight croissants for breakfast.

    And that the status quo is......OK!!!

    Every non-vote should be taken as for Remain.
    Every non-vote should not be taken for anything whatsoever.

    Same as always: If you don't care enough to vote, then you don't care enough to be counted for anything.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    Actually it would add max. 2% to Remain and min.1% to Leave, so a 1% max. to Remain's lead.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Relatedly:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/how-britains-pollsters-think-eu-referendum-might-g?utm_term=.ato1ERb8p#.ujdnWqw2K

    Some fascinating insights here. Generally the pollsters think REMAIN will probably edge it, but they are not at all sure.

    V interesting from Boon at Gold Standard ICM, who thinks turnout could be sub-50%, maybe down to 40%

    I disagree, but if he is right, LEAVE wins.

    The irony being that if that is so, then not that many people have the burning sense of injustice at the many-headed EU monster for infiltrating every corner of their lives and forcing them to have straight croissants for breakfast.

    And that the status quo is......OK!!!

    Every non-vote should be taken as for Remain.
    The further irony is that this generally apathetic tolerance of the EU could win it for LEAVE.

    As you say, the EU is not an issue for many many people, they feel vaguely grumpy about it, from time to time, but on the whole they'd prefer to stay if the alternative is a huge rumpus. However they're not that bothered, so come the day they might forget to vote, or go shopping instead, or get to the polling station too late coz they were down the pub.

    And so LEAVE wins.
    For sure democracy is a curious, not to say wondrous thing I'm sure if we had to start from scratch it wouldn't get a look in.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pithy upsum of today's revelations...

    @TheRedRag: Cameron paid HMRC £20,000 more than needed out of integrity. Corbyn paid £100 more out of incompetence.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    And Corbyn's leadership...

    @DamCou: Labour's twist on the Dead Cat Strategy: Wait for the Tories to lower their guard, then hit yourself repeatedly in the face with a dead cat.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    SeanT said:

    They want us to go.

    Here's the vice president of the European Parliament, openly saying they will cancel Cameron's "deal".

    http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/interview/graf-lambsdorff-eu-clearly-went-too-far-in-brexit-concessions/

    OMG! The two-faced buggers. ;)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:



    There's a reason why in 1984 the citizens were given no privacy. You might want to reflect on why that was and whether you really want to live in the sort of dystopia your "make everyone tell everyone else everything about themselves" principle will create.

    We don't need to be guided by a novel in this case - we can inspect the countries where universal disclosure of tax returns is well-established, Norway and Sweden. Do you feel these are dystopic and tyranninal societies?

    I agree that the idea of informers is another matter. In theory it already exists (Crimestoppers and all that). In practice I'm not sure I want every vague suspicion reported.
    Whistleblowing/informers are another matter. A lot of Continental countries have strong cultural/historical objections to this, particularly when anonymous, for obvious reasons. The Anglo-Saxon world tends to take a different view but even we find it difficult to create an effective whistleblowing culture. How many MPs blew the whistle on their colleagues?
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/junior-doctor-claims-career-was-wrecked-by-lack-of-protection-for-whistleblowers-a3185751.html

    There is a dismal record of whistleblowers being sacked in the NHS: Dr Chris Day for example.
    There certainly is.

    I must spend 50% of my working life on whistleblowing investigations. It is something I've had to spend a lot of time thinking about. Not at all an easy issue and the NHS, more than most, could do with a real culture change on this. Until people at the top see this and really and relentlessly drive this through, sad cases like this will continue to happen.

  • DairADairA Posts: 49
    FPT

    I think the supposition that Sunderland will be the first result (it will be by council rather than seat like in Scotland surely). If it is a Leave win then much like the First Indyref, the result will be known before midnight.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SeanT said:

    They want us to go.

    Here's the vice president of the European Parliament, openly saying they will cancel Cameron's "deal".

    http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/interview/graf-lambsdorff-eu-clearly-went-too-far-in-brexit-concessions/

    His words about Cameron's deal are clear:

    " Q: If the deal were to be altered, would the UK not interpret that as the European Union failing to follow through with what it has promised?

    A: Who counts as the “the European Union” here? Member state leaders have met within the framework of the European Council, but their agreement is in no way a document of the European Union, but a text of hybrid character, which is unspecified and not legally binding.

    At the moment, the whole thing is nothing more than a deal that has been hammered out down the local bazaar. The European Union, however, is a community of law, in which there are regulated responsibilities. If the British are going to put all their eggs in one basket, in a promise made like this, which has not yet complied with our clean process of law, then, for me, this process of law is more important and preferable. "
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    DairA said:

    FPT

    I think the supposition that Sunderland will be the first result (it will be by council rather than seat like in Scotland surely). If it is a Leave win then much like the First Indyref, the result will be known before midnight.

    I'd expect Sunderland to vote Remain.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    SeanT said:

    They want us to go.

    Here's the vice president of the European Parliament, openly saying they will cancel Cameron's "deal".

    http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/interview/graf-lambsdorff-eu-clearly-went-too-far-in-brexit-concessions/

    Nice...Graf Lambsdorff says

    'Member state leaders have met within the framework of the European Council, but their agreement is in no way a document of the European Union, but a text of hybrid character, which is unspecified and not legally binding.

    At the moment, the whole thing is nothing more than a deal that has been hammered out down the local bazaar'

    Not quite the 'cast-iron guarantee' of 'special status' Cameron and his spinners would have us believe,,,,
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    I thought the deal was supposed to be legally binding?

    Cam should have just come out for leave...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Sean_F said:

    DairA said:

    FPT

    I think the supposition that Sunderland will be the first result (it will be by council rather than seat like in Scotland surely). If it is a Leave win then much like the First Indyref, the result will be known before midnight.

    I'd expect Sunderland to vote Remain.
    So would I , but if it's over 45 then it is very close.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    SeanT said:

    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    They want us to go.

    Here's the vice president of the European Parliament, openly saying they will cancel Cameron's "deal".

    http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/interview/graf-lambsdorff-eu-clearly-went-too-far-in-brexit-concessions/

    OMG! The two-faced buggers. ;)
    Love his honesty.

    "If the deal were to be altered, would the UK not interpret that as the European Union failing to follow through with what it has promised?

    "Who counts as the “the European Union” here? Member state leaders have met within the framework of the European Council, but their agreement is in no way a document of the European Union, but a text of hybrid character, which is unspecified and not legally binding."

    Cameron's deal is NOT LEGALLY BINDING. Says the Vice Prez of the EU Parliament.

    These remarks are explicitly designed to damage the cause of REMAIN, there's no other interpretation. Lots of senior EU bigwigs WANT us to go.
    It's no more than what some of us were saying at the time on here.

    Voting Remain on the basis of this so-called deal is for the birds. It won't last. And anyone relying on it is naïve, IMO.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    Actually it would add max. 2% to Remain and min.1% to Leave, so a 1% max. to Remain's lead.
    Only if Leave got at least a third of NI's votes which I don't believe. Also only if turnout is no different which isn't guaranteed either.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    Better together :D
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,235
    @FPT Richard Nabavi: re shareholders

    Completely off topic, but since we have the UK's best resource here for answering dificult questions:

    I am a director and company secretary. I understand of course that we are bound to maintain an accurate register of shareholders. But I cannot find anywhere any reference to what this actually means in practice in terms of whether it is entirely the shareholder's responsibility to notify us of a change of address, or whether we should pro-actively do Google searches or otherwise try to find shareholders with whom we have lost contact. In other words, should the register show the last formally-notified address we have received for a given shareholder, or our best guess of what the address might be, or what we might know from other sources?

    I'm going to ignore those newfangled "limited partnerships" and try to deal with "private limited companies" ("Limited") and "public limited companies" (plcs). So

    * I know you have to keep a register of shareholders
    * I assume you have their contact address when they *buy* the share
    * I assume you have their new contact address if they tell you when they move
    * But I don't think for plcs[1] you have to *track* them
    * So for plcs I think the answer is "the register shows the last address you have for a given shareholder" (i.e. you're not responsible for making them give you an up-to-date address).
    * I don't know what the answer is for "limiteds"

    Points to note.
    * Large companies have millions of shareholders and I assume asking them to track each one would be difficult.
    * I am just some person on the internet watching NCIS. Don't take my word for it. Instead contact Companies House.

    See also
    * https://www.rapidformations.co.uk/blog/how-to-update-shareholder-information-at-companies-house/
    * https://www.gov.uk/browse/business/limited-company
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    MikeK said:
    Wasted.

    Forward to D cameron 10 Downing Street

    5 or 6 million of those and he might get a bit pissed off.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    runnymede said:

    SeanT said:

    They want us to go.

    Here's the vice president of the European Parliament, openly saying they will cancel Cameron's "deal".

    http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/interview/graf-lambsdorff-eu-clearly-went-too-far-in-brexit-concessions/

    Nice...Graf Lambsdorff says

    'Member state leaders have met within the framework of the European Council, but their agreement is in no way a document of the European Union, but a text of hybrid character, which is unspecified and not legally binding.

    At the moment, the whole thing is nothing more than a deal that has been hammered out down the local bazaar'

    Not quite the 'cast-iron guarantee' of 'special status' Cameron and his spinners would have us believe,,,,
    Dodgy Dave strikes again......
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    Better together :D
    As I understand it, votes are announced by council. What if Hampshire votes to leave, but Dorset votes to stay.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    Cameron's deal is NOT LEGALLY BINDING. Says the Vice Prez of the EU Parliament.

    These remarks are explicitly designed to damage the cause of REMAIN, there's no other interpretation. Lots of senior EU bigwigs WANT us to go.

    Ok, I'm confused.

    I thought "the deal" was pants, destroyed Cameron's reputation, not worth the pamphlets it has been printed upon, etc...

    Now you are upset because the EU won't honour it?
  • MikeK said:
    What a silly sausage.

    The Tory Party left Milbank and moved to 4 Matthew Parker Street a few years ago.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    DairA said:

    FPT

    I think the supposition that Sunderland will be the first result (it will be by council rather than seat like in Scotland surely). If it is a Leave win then much like the First Indyref, the result will be known before midnight.

    I'd expect Sunderland to vote Remain.
    So would I , but if it's over 45 then it is very close.
    Again agreed. I think Sunderland will be about 5% more Remain than the UK as a whole.
  • RobD said:

    I thought the deal was supposed to be legally binding?

    Cam should have just come out for leave...

    That would have required a degree of honesty or integrity.
    Both sadly lacking in most politicians.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    Cameron's deal is NOT LEGALLY BINDING. Says the Vice Prez of the EU Parliament.

    These remarks are explicitly designed to damage the cause of REMAIN, there's no other interpretation. Lots of senior EU bigwigs WANT us to go.

    Ok, I'm confused.

    I thought "the deal" was pants, destroyed Cameron's reputation, not worth the pamphlets it has been printed upon, etc...

    Now you are upset because the EU won't honour it?
    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:
    Wasted.

    Forward to D cameron 10 Downing Street

    5 or 6 million of those and he might get a bit pissed off.
    I suggest you tweet this to @sarahandrews77; she may take your suggestion to heart.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    DairA said:

    FPT

    I think the supposition that Sunderland will be the first result (it will be by council rather than seat like in Scotland surely). If it is a Leave win then much like the First Indyref, the result will be known before midnight.

    I'd expect Sunderland to vote Remain.
    So would I , but if it's over 45 then it is very close.
    45 is home and dry.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    Cameron's deal is NOT LEGALLY BINDING. Says the Vice Prez of the EU Parliament.

    These remarks are explicitly designed to damage the cause of REMAIN, there's no other interpretation. Lots of senior EU bigwigs WANT us to go.

    Ok, I'm confused.

    I thought "the deal" was pants, destroyed Cameron's reputation, not worth the pamphlets it has been printed upon, etc...

    Now you are upset because the EU won't honour it?
    At least when they don't honor it we won't wasted several months ramping it :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    NI and Wales, makes no difference. Big majorities wish to remain in the UK. Scotland, perhaps, but independence doesn't look attractive right now.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Cyclefree said:



    It's no more than what some of us were saying at the time on here.

    Voting Remain on the basis of this so-called deal is for the birds. It won't last. And anyone relying on it is naïve, IMO.

    Quite, a former justice of the ECJ at the time described the idea the the deal was legally binding as "Bullshit", but no the remainers carried on with their fatuous ramping anyway. But they they don't care what it true, so long as they get another five years cuddling up to Nursey before they have to discover the real world again.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    Typical remainer, still lying.
  • DairADairA Posts: 49
    Scott_P said:

    Pithy upsum of today's revelations...

    @TheRedRag: Cameron paid HMRC £20,000 more than needed out of integrity. Corbyn paid £100 more out of incompetence.

    In other words, Cameron is 200 times more incompetent than Corbyn.

    Gosh.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    NI and Wales, makes no difference. Big majorities wish to remain in the UK. Scotland, perhaps, but independence doesn't look attractive right now.
    Is that really necessarily true about Northern Ireland?

    The unionists and nationalists tend to divide fairly evenly in most elections.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The complaint is twofold: (1) that he did not secure a worthwhile deal; and (2) he hugely overstated the one he did get which may well end up being eviscerated. In which case he got no deal at all. It's a combination of incompetence and dishonesty.

    @SeanT may put it more pithily of course. (Lying Gaylord PonceyBoots, that sort of thing....)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    NI and Wales, makes no difference. Big majorities wish to remain in the UK. Scotland, perhaps, but independence doesn't look attractive right now.
    precisely.

    why on earth do english people think the welsh and irish are going to vote for an immediate 30% cut in their standard of living ?

  • DairADairA Posts: 49
    Sean_F said:

    DairA said:

    FPT

    I think the supposition that Sunderland will be the first result (it will be by council rather than seat like in Scotland surely). If it is a Leave win then much like the First Indyref, the result will be known before midnight.

    I'd expect Sunderland to vote Remain.
    Both sides expected Clackmannanshire to vote Yes. Hence the "over before midnight". I can see the exact same thing happening in June.
  • Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    Or is it the case that the 'undecided's' who became REAMINers on the strength of Camerons deal need to look at it again?
  • DairADairA Posts: 49

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    Actually it would add max. 2% to Remain and min.1% to Leave, so a 1% max. to Remain's lead.
    Only if Leave got at least a third of NI's votes which I don't believe. Also only if turnout is no different which isn't guaranteed either.
    People in Ulster don't vote as much to start with, it might be 3% of UK pop but it will be 2% of the EU miniref.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2016
    Have you established why no sign of rental income on Jezza tax return? He surely hasn't be renting a room out in London for ~£4k a year and thus all covered by the Rent a Room scheme.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536

    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    NI and Wales, makes no difference. Big majorities wish to remain in the UK. Scotland, perhaps, but independence doesn't look attractive right now.
    precisely.

    why on earth do english people think the welsh and irish are going to vote for an immediate 30% cut in their standard of living ?

    pure ignorance, for the most part, I think.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    NI and Wales, makes no difference. Big majorities wish to remain in the UK. Scotland, perhaps, but independence doesn't look attractive right now.
    Is that really necessarily true about Northern Ireland?

    The unionists and nationalists tend to divide fairly evenly in most elections.
    Currently, 51% Unionist to 38% Nationalist, but 20-25% Nationalists favour remaining in the UK.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited April 2016
    DairA said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    Actually it would add max. 2% to Remain and min.1% to Leave, so a 1% max. to Remain's lead.
    Only if Leave got at least a third of NI's votes which I don't believe. Also only if turnout is no different which isn't guaranteed either.
    People in Ulster don't vote as much to start with, it might be 3% of UK pop but it will be 2% of the EU miniref.
    miniref? Arguably the most important referendum since the first one!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited April 2016
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The complaint is twofold: (1) that he did not secure a worthwhile deal; and (2) he hugely overstated the one he did get which may well end up being eviscerated. In which case he got no deal at all. It's a combination of incompetence and dishonesty.

    @SeanT may put it more pithily of course. (Lying Gaylord PonceyBoots, that sort of thing....)
    Dave, together with the other 27 heads of the EU, hammered out a deal that has been decried as worthless and achieving nothing.

    And now the vice-president of the EU parliament (who is the deputy to the person who represents the delegates who belong to those very same 27 EU members) says "pah".

    And all of a sudden, instead of worthless and duplicitous, we treat his words as pearls of wisdom and as inscribed on tablets delivered from up on high?

    I don't think there's any doubt in any mind (nor should there be) that if you think the whole Dave Agreement thing is rubbish and the European Union heads lied and obfuscated and intend to vote down the agreement because...because...well, just because...

    ...

    ...then you should vote LEAVE!

    A few times, if you can.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,235
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The food is lousy. And such small portions too... ;)

    The EU is entirely greedy and untrustworthy when we are a member, but if we leave they will be generous and trustworthy. Meanwhile we will pursue a free-trade protectionist approach, raising tariffs against all whilst exporting freely to all. We will maintain and increase growth whilst preventing all immigration...except from the ethnic group or ancestry of the person you are speaking to. We will adopt the Canada option. Or Norway. Or Switzerland. Or Narnia. Or our own tailor-made agreement, which will cost us nothing and give us everything. Brexit means up and down, left and right, the penny and the bun, it is infinitely virtuous and if we only believe, tap our heels three times, say "there's no place like home", then all our wishes will be granted, Kim Greist will escape with us, and tomorrow will be another day...
  • DairADairA Posts: 49
    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    NI and Wales, makes no difference. Big majorities wish to remain in the UK. Scotland, perhaps, but independence doesn't look attractive right now.
    Is that really necessarily true about Northern Ireland?

    The unionists and nationalists tend to divide fairly evenly in most elections.
    NI gets the biggest per capita benefit from EU funding for a whole swathe of projects, it's not worth as much as the subvention but AIUI, you're not talking much of a difference.

    On top of that both sides benefit hugely from the open border which technically has always existed and would likely continue but neither side would want to risk it. There is a reason why the Loyalists didn't call for a border to be imposed even during the height of The Troubles.

    Even with the DUP supporting Leave, I can easily see both "traditions" voting Remain and quite heavily.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    They want us to go.

    Here's the vice president of the European Parliament, openly saying they will cancel Cameron's "deal".

    http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/interview/graf-lambsdorff-eu-clearly-went-too-far-in-brexit-concessions/

    OMG! The two-faced buggers. ;)
    Love his honesty.

    "If the deal were to be altered, would the UK not interpret that as the European Union failing to follow through with what it has promised?

    "Who counts as the “the European Union” here? Member state leaders have met within the framework of the European Council, but their agreement is in no way a document of the European Union, but a text of hybrid character, which is unspecified and not legally binding."

    Cameron's deal is NOT LEGALLY BINDING. Says the Vice Prez of the EU Parliament.

    These remarks are explicitly designed to damage the cause of REMAIN, there's no other interpretation. Lots of senior EU bigwigs WANT us to go.
    It's no more than what some of us were saying at the time on here.

    Voting Remain on the basis of this so-called deal is for the birds. It won't last. And anyone relying on it is naïve, IMO.
    Of course Remain's main thrust is reheating arguments from 1975 rather than emphasising the 'deal', but this at least adds to growing impression that the PM can't be trusted and is trying to con the public.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    NI and Wales, makes no difference. Big majorities wish to remain in the UK. Scotland, perhaps, but independence doesn't look attractive right now.
    precisely.

    why on earth do english people think the welsh and irish are going to vote for an immediate 30% cut in their standard of living ?

    I didn't say that there would be calls for independence, but it would make for plenty of wrangling.

    If the Celtic nations push Remain over the limit it may be calls for English independence!

  • DairADairA Posts: 49
    RobD said:

    DairA said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    Actually it would add max. 2% to Remain and min.1% to Leave, so a 1% max. to Remain's lead.
    Only if Leave got at least a third of NI's votes which I don't believe. Also only if turnout is no different which isn't guaranteed either.
    People in Ulster don't vote as much to start with, it might be 3% of UK pop but it will be 2% of the EU miniref.
    miniref? Arguably the most important referendum since the first one!
    A vote on whether or not you stay in a trade club seems rather less important than a vote on whether the United Kingdom ceases to exist.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    NI and Wales, makes no difference. Big majorities wish to remain in the UK. Scotland, perhaps, but independence doesn't look attractive right now.
    precisely.

    why on earth do english people think the welsh and irish are going to vote for an immediate 30% cut in their standard of living ?

    I didn't say that there would be calls for independence, but it would make for plenty of wrangling.

    If the Celtic nations push Remain over the limit it may be calls for English independence!

    based on a 50 % turnout ? Can't see it, they care even less about NI and Wales than they do the EU - rugby aside.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    chestnut said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    DairA said:

    FPT

    I think the supposition that Sunderland will be the first result (it will be by council rather than seat like in Scotland surely). If it is a Leave win then much like the First Indyref, the result will be known before midnight.

    I'd expect Sunderland to vote Remain.
    So would I , but if it's over 45 then it is very close.
    45 is home and dry.
    For leave ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    DairA said:

    RobD said:

    DairA said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    Actually it would add max. 2% to Remain and min.1% to Leave, so a 1% max. to Remain's lead.
    Only if Leave got at least a third of NI's votes which I don't believe. Also only if turnout is no different which isn't guaranteed either.
    People in Ulster don't vote as much to start with, it might be 3% of UK pop but it will be 2% of the EU miniref.
    miniref? Arguably the most important referendum since the first one!
    A vote on whether or not you stay in a trade club seems rather less important than a vote on whether the United Kingdom ceases to exist.
    Yes, but the rest of the UK didn't get to vote on that.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The complaint is twofold: (1) that he did not secure a worthwhile deal; and (2) he hugely overstated the one he did get which may well end up being eviscerated. In which case he got no deal at all. It's a combination of incompetence and dishonesty.

    @SeanT may put it more pithily of course. (Lying Gaylord PonceyBoots, that sort of thing....)
    Dave, together with the other 27 heads of the EU, hammered out a deal that has been decried as worthless and achieving nothing.

    And now the vice-president of the EU parliament (who is the deputy to the person who represents the delegates who belong to those very same 27 EU members) says "pah".

    And all of a sudden, instead of worthless and duplicitous, we treat his words as pearls of wisdom and as inscribed on tablets delivered from up on high?

    I don't think there's any doubt in any mind (nor should there be) that if you think the whole Dave Agreement thing is rubbish and the European Union heads lied and obfuscated and intend to vote down the agreement because...because...well, just because...

    ...

    ...then you should vote LEAVE!

    A few times, if you can.
    To be perfectly honest, the deal is largely irrelevant to the decision I will be making. I think it was an opportunity missed and I thought it silly of the PM to overstate its wonderfulness. Leave's arguments are also largely incoherent and irrelevant to my decision. I shall try and make up my own mind.

    If I do end up voting Leave - and this is by no means certain - I do so in the full expectation that there will be considerable uncertainty and difficulty and costs for us following such a decision. Sometimes, though, you have to endure pain to get to a worthwhile destination or a worthwhile outcome.

    It will not be an easy decision.

  • annakannak Posts: 14
    How many British citizens that are living in How many British citizens that are living in eu countries are entitled to vote in the euref ? They could have a big say in the outcome.
    Example : in Ireland medical services are means tested, I am an irish citizen have worked and paid taxes here but because of the means test I have to pay for health services.
    My neighbours from Manchester never worked here but are retired. They get free health care because under eu rules the uk government have to pay for them.
    I doubt very much these people will vote Leave.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited April 2016

    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    NI and Wales, makes no difference. Big majorities wish to remain in the UK. Scotland, perhaps, but independence doesn't look attractive right now.
    precisely.

    why on earth do english people think the welsh and irish are going to vote for an immediate 30% cut in their standard of living ?

    I didn't say that there would be calls for independence, but it would make for plenty of wrangling.

    If the Celtic nations push Remain over the limit it may be calls for English independence!

    Will there be bare chested campaigning like this ?


    http://l7.alamy.com/zooms/600dcd26e2b64d29a443f904629bd4df/a-bare-chested-man-with-slogans-painted-on-his-torso-at-a-pro-scottish-dwx6nr.jpg
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    DairA said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    NI and Wales, makes no difference. Big majorities wish to remain in the UK. Scotland, perhaps, but independence doesn't look attractive right now.
    Is that really necessarily true about Northern Ireland?

    The unionists and nationalists tend to divide fairly evenly in most elections.
    NI gets the biggest per capita benefit from EU funding for a whole swathe of projects, it's not worth as much as the subvention but AIUI, you're not talking much of a difference.

    On top of that both sides benefit hugely from the open border which technically has always existed and would likely continue but neither side would want to risk it. There is a reason why the Loyalists didn't call for a border to be imposed even during the height of The Troubles.

    Even with the DUP supporting Leave, I can easily see both "traditions" voting Remain and quite heavily.
    Unionists will probably split 70/30 for Leave, but everyone else will go 90/10 Remain.
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The food is lousy. And such small portions too... ;)

    The EU is entirely greedy and untrustworthy when we are a member, but if we leave they will be generous and trustworthy. Meanwhile we will pursue a free-trade protectionist approach, raising tariffs against all whilst exporting freely to all. We will maintain and increase growth whilst preventing all immigration...except from the ethnic group or ancestry of the person you are speaking to. We will adopt the Canada option. Or Norway. Or Switzerland. Or Narnia. Or our own tailor-made agreement, which will cost us nothing and give us everything. Brexit means up and down, left and right, the penny and the bun, it is infinitely virtuous and if we only believe, tap our heels three times, say "there's no place like home", then all our wishes will be granted, Kim Greist will escape with us, and tomorrow will be another day...
    Yes, all of that. No hang on, none of that.
    But, important decisions made at a level where, if we disagree, we can vote to throw the bums out.
  • DairADairA Posts: 49
    RobD said:

    DairA said:

    RobD said:

    DairA said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    Actually it would add max. 2% to Remain and min.1% to Leave, so a 1% max. to Remain's lead.
    Only if Leave got at least a third of NI's votes which I don't believe. Also only if turnout is no different which isn't guaranteed either.
    People in Ulster don't vote as much to start with, it might be 3% of UK pop but it will be 2% of the EU miniref.
    miniref? Arguably the most important referendum since the first one!
    A vote on whether or not you stay in a trade club seems rather less important than a vote on whether the United Kingdom ceases to exist.
    Yes, but the rest of the UK didn't get to vote on that.
    That doesn't change the relative important. The First Indyref was far, far more important and was far more fundamental to the United Kingdom as an extant nation state regardless of how much of the population got to vote.
  • annakannak Posts: 14
    Sorry for mistake below
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    annak said:

    How many British citizens that are living in How many British citizens that are living in eu countries are entitled to vote in the euref ? They could have a big say in the outcome.
    Example : in Ireland medical services are means tested, I am an irish citizen have worked and paid taxes here but because of the means test I have to pay for health services.
    My neighbours from Manchester never worked here but are retired. They get free health care because under eu rules the uk government have to pay for them.
    I doubt very much these people will vote Leave.

    Any citizen who has lived abroad for under 15 years can vote.
  • Listening to the BBC 9.00pm news they covered the tax declarations but showed no part of David Cameron's explanation of his Fathers investment which compared it to the BBC , Guardian and Mirror group. Censorship by the BBC - and earlier they had that independent tax adviser Richard Murphy no less to explain tax declarations. The broadcaster is so biased
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    NI and Wales, makes no difference. Big majorities wish to remain in the UK. Scotland, perhaps, but independence doesn't look attractive right now.
    precisely.

    why on earth do english people think the welsh and irish are going to vote for an immediate 30% cut in their standard of living ?

    I didn't say that there would be calls for independence, but it would make for plenty of wrangling.

    If the Celtic nations push Remain over the limit it may be calls for English independence!

    Will there be bare chested campaigning like this ?


    http://l7.alamy.com/zooms/600dcd26e2b64d29a443f904629bd4df/a-bare-chested-man-with-slogans-painted-on-his-torso-at-a-pro-scottish-dwx6nr.jpg
    Prolly more like this.

    http://tinyurl.com/k6j3f4n
  • DairADairA Posts: 49
    Sean_F said:

    DairA said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    NI and Wales, makes no difference. Big majorities wish to remain in the UK. Scotland, perhaps, but independence doesn't look attractive right now.
    Is that really necessarily true about Northern Ireland?

    The unionists and nationalists tend to divide fairly evenly in most elections.
    NI gets the biggest per capita benefit from EU funding for a whole swathe of projects, it's not worth as much as the subvention but AIUI, you're not talking much of a difference.

    On top of that both sides benefit hugely from the open border which technically has always existed and would likely continue but neither side would want to risk it. There is a reason why the Loyalists didn't call for a border to be imposed even during the height of The Troubles.

    Even with the DUP supporting Leave, I can easily see both "traditions" voting Remain and quite heavily.
    Unionists will probably split 70/30 for Leave, but everyone else will go 90/10 Remain.
    The UUP back Remain and are currently on the up. The DUP will not persuade all their fanbois to back them up. The thing with NI is that everything there knows they are completely and utterly dependant in "Internaitonal Aid" from Britain, the US and the EU. They don't tend to turn their back on free cash.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DairA said:

    RobD said:

    DairA said:

    RobD said:

    DairA said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    Actually it would add max. 2% to Remain and min.1% to Leave, so a 1% max. to Remain's lead.
    Only if Leave got at least a third of NI's votes which I don't believe. Also only if turnout is no different which isn't guaranteed either.
    People in Ulster don't vote as much to start with, it might be 3% of UK pop but it will be 2% of the EU miniref.
    miniref? Arguably the most important referendum since the first one!
    A vote on whether or not you stay in a trade club seems rather less important than a vote on whether the United Kingdom ceases to exist.
    Yes, but the rest of the UK didn't get to vote on that.
    That doesn't change the relative important. The First Indyref was far, far more important and was far more fundamental to the United Kingdom as an extant nation state regardless of how much of the population got to vote.
    Not if the vote for the EU Ref is Leave. In that case the referendum will mean significant changes whereas due to its failure the Indyref will be a footnote in history.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    DairA said:

    RobD said:

    DairA said:

    RobD said:

    DairA said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    Actually it would add max. 2% to Remain and min.1% to Leave, so a 1% max. to Remain's lead.
    Only if Leave got at least a third of NI's votes which I don't believe. Also only if turnout is no different which isn't guaranteed either.
    People in Ulster don't vote as much to start with, it might be 3% of UK pop but it will be 2% of the EU miniref.
    miniref? Arguably the most important referendum since the first one!
    A vote on whether or not you stay in a trade club seems rather less important than a vote on whether the United Kingdom ceases to exist.
    Yes, but the rest of the UK didn't get to vote on that.
    That doesn't change the relative important. The First Indyref was far, far more important and was far more fundamental to the United Kingdom as an extant nation state regardless of how much of the population got to vote.
    But surely a leave vote would cause the Union to break up, so it combines those aspects from the first reference, plus membership of the EU ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The food is lousy. And such small portions too... ;)

    The EU is entirely greedy and untrustworthy when we are a member, but if we leave they will be generous and trustworthy. Meanwhile we will pursue a free-trade protectionist approach, raising tariffs against all whilst exporting freely to all. We will maintain and increase growth whilst preventing all immigration...except from the ethnic group or ancestry of the person you are speaking to. We will adopt the Canada option. Or Norway. Or Switzerland. Or Narnia. Or our own tailor-made agreement, which will cost us nothing and give us everything. Brexit means up and down, left and right, the penny and the bun, it is infinitely virtuous and if we only believe, tap our heels three times, say "there's no place like home", then all our wishes will be granted, Kim Greist will escape with us, and tomorrow will be another day...
    LEGALLY BINDING

    Chortle.
    Nabavi will be along to explain shortly :D
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    edited April 2016
    RobD said:

    DairA said:

    RobD said:

    DairA said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    Actually it would add max. 2% to Remain and min.1% to Leave, so a 1% max. to Remain's lead.
    Only if Leave got at least a third of NI's votes which I don't believe. Also only if turnout is no different which isn't guaranteed either.
    People in Ulster don't vote as much to start with, it might be 3% of UK pop but it will be 2% of the EU miniref.
    miniref? Arguably the most important referendum since the first one!
    A vote on whether or not you stay in a trade club seems rather less important than a vote on whether the United Kingdom ceases to exist.
    Yes, but the rest of the UK didn't get to vote on that.
    Looks like a fair whack of the rest of the UK can't be arsed to vote on this.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    DairA said:

    Sean_F said:

    DairA said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    More critically, if Remain win NI Scotland and Wales and Leave England, we are heading to constitutional crisis whichever way the overall vote goes.
    NI and Wales, makes no difference. Big majorities wish to remain in the UK. Scotland, perhaps, but independence doesn't look attractive right now.
    Is that really necessarily true about Northern Ireland?

    The unionists and nationalists tend to divide fairly evenly in most elections.
    NI gets the biggest per capita benefit from EU funding for a whole swathe of projects, it's not worth as much as the subvention but AIUI, you're not talking much of a difference.

    On top of that both sides benefit hugely from the open border which technically has always existed and would likely continue but neither side would want to risk it. There is a reason why the Loyalists didn't call for a border to be imposed even during the height of The Troubles.

    Even with the DUP supporting Leave, I can easily see both "traditions" voting Remain and quite heavily.
    Unionists will probably split 70/30 for Leave, but everyone else will go 90/10 Remain.
    The UUP back Remain and are currently on the up. The DUP will not persuade all their fanbois to back them up. The thing with NI is that everything there knows they are completely and utterly dependant in "Internaitonal Aid" from Britain, the US and the EU. They don't tend to turn their back on free cash.
    It doesn't alter how Unionists will vote. EU grants ultimately come form the British taxpayer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    DairA said:

    RobD said:

    DairA said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation occasionally poll Northern Ireland as part of their EU referendum polling.
    Any poll that doesn't probably understates remain though. Unionist voters lean slightly out, but Shinners are 90ish % remain.
    It probably adds 1% max to Remain.
    N.I. population is less than 3% of the UK.
    1% added to Remain is a 2% swing. Which could be enough to win it if the vote is close.
    Actually it would add max. 2% to Remain and min.1% to Leave, so a 1% max. to Remain's lead.
    Only if Leave got at least a third of NI's votes which I don't believe. Also only if turnout is no different which isn't guaranteed either.
    People in Ulster don't vote as much to start with, it might be 3% of UK pop but it will be 2% of the EU miniref.
    miniref? Arguably the most important referendum since the first one!
    A vote on whether or not you stay in a trade club seems rather less important than a vote on whether the United Kingdom ceases to exist.
    Yes, but the rest of the UK didn't get to vote on that.
    Looks like a fair whack of the rest of the UK can't be arsed to vote on this.
    Yeah, EU membership isn't easy to get passionate about. Independence is!
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    MikeK said:
    Wasted.

    Forward to D cameron 10 Downing Street

    5 or 6 million of those and he might get a bit pissed off.
    No - if it goes to 10 Downing St then I assume the bill lands at the taxpayer eventually.

    Sending it to The Conservative Party means that the Conservative party pick up the tab.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The complaint is twofold: (1) that he did not secure a worthwhile deal; and (2) he hugely overstated the one he did get which may well end up being eviscerated. In which case he got no deal at all. It's a combination of incompetence and dishonesty.

    @SeanT may put it more pithily of course. (Lying Gaylord PonceyBoots, that sort of thing....)
    Dave, together with the other 27 heads of the EU, hammered out a deal that has been decried as worthless and achieving nothing.

    And now the vice-president of the EU parliament (who is the deputy to the person who represents the delegates who belong to those very same 27 EU members) says "pah".

    And all of a sudden, instead of worthless and duplicitous, we treat his words as pearls of wisdom and as inscribed on tablets delivered from up on high?

    I don't think there's any doubt in any mind (nor should there be) that if you think the whole Dave Agreement thing is rubbish and the European Union heads lied and obfuscated and intend to vote down the agreement because...because...well, just because...

    ...

    ...then you should vote LEAVE!

    A few times, if you can.
    To be perfectly honest, the deal is largely irrelevant to the decision I will be making. I think it was an opportunity missed and I thought it silly of the PM to overstate its wonderfulness. Leave's arguments are also largely incoherent and irrelevant to my decision. I shall try and make up my own mind.

    If I do end up voting Leave - and this is by no means certain - I do so in the full expectation that there will be considerable uncertainty and difficulty and costs for us following such a decision. Sometimes, though, you have to endure pain to get to a worthwhile destination or a worthwhile outcome.

    It will not be an easy decision.

    I think Dave/Remain's most egregious error was to say they will campaign for and would be happy to stay in, a "reformed EU". The EU ain't reforming any time soon. Unless you believe that the reform of our relationship to an unchanging EU is indeed a "reformed EU" (I don't).

    I would have been happier with a "reformed relationship between the UK and the EU which latter, just so everyone is clear on this, intends to pursue ever closer union, albeit without us, post deal."

    Not as snappy, that said.

    And agree about the non-ease of the decision; my thinking is laughably facile. I am happier to stay as part of the decision-making body rather than be left outside it. Difficulties and uncertainty remain with both options, of course.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2016

    Listening to the BBC 9.00pm news they covered the tax declarations but showed no part of David Cameron's explanation of his Fathers investment which compared it to the BBC , Guardian and Mirror group. Censorship by the BBC - and earlier they had that independent tax adviser Richard Murphy no less to explain tax declarations. The broadcaster is so biased

    I hope they introduced him as Richard Murphy, architect of Jeremy Corbyn's economic policies...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    weejonnie said:

    MikeK said:
    Wasted.

    Forward to D cameron 10 Downing Street

    5 or 6 million of those and he might get a bit pissed off.
    No - if it goes to 10 Downing St then I assume the bill lands at the taxpayer eventually.

    Sending it to The Conservative Party means that the Conservative party pick up the tab.
    Why does the Conservative Party have a freepost address?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    TOPPING said:

    Dave, together with the other 27 heads of the EU, hammered out a deal that has been decried as worthless and achieving nothing.

    And now the vice-president of the EU parliament (who is the deputy to the person who represents the delegates who belong to those very same 27 EU members) says "pah".

    And all of a sudden, instead of worthless and duplicitous, we treat his words as pearls of wisdom and as inscribed on tablets delivered from up on high?

    I don't think there's any doubt in any mind (nor should there be) that if you think the whole Dave Agreement thing is rubbish and the European Union heads lied and obfuscated and intend to vote down the agreement because...because...well, just because...

    ...

    ...then you should vote LEAVE!

    A few times, if you can.

    No, the deal is still worthless. It was always going to be worthless unless we had a treaty change with 27 signatures on the dotted line before we went to vote. I've said this time and again, the PM could have come back from Brussels with a veto, exit from the CAP and CFP and a new rebate but without treaty change or a new "Treaty of London" before our vote it would all mean absolutely nothing. If/when we deliver a remain vote there is going to be no appetite to implement anything Dave has negotiated, even his thinnest gruel is going to be put to one side and ignored for a year or so until we forget about it.

    Dave may be trust worthy, I think he is. I think he tried to rush the negotiation because he knows another summer of the migrant crisis is basically going to destroy any chance of a remain vote so he has done the best possible deal in the shortest period of time. That means there is no treaty change, no EUParl assent and no legal framework to bind our remain vote to the EU implementing it. The last point is the key point, I don't think the EU are to be trusted and though I personally wouldn't be swayed by Dave's negotiations even if he had got 27 signatures on a new/amended treaty without that they hold absolutely no meaning. As I said, Dave could have got the best deal out there, the internal markets veto, an opt-out from the CAP/CFP, enhanced movement instead of free movement etc... but it would all come to nought without having it enshrined in a new or amended treaty with the 28th signature (ours) going on the dotted line with the Remain vote.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The food is lousy. And such small portions too... ;)

    The EU is entirely greedy and untrustworthy when we are a member, but if we leave they will be generous and trustworthy. Meanwhile we will pursue a free-trade protectionist approach, raising tariffs against all whilst exporting freely to all. We will maintain and increase growth whilst preventing all immigration...except from the ethnic group or ancestry of the person you are speaking to. We will adopt the Canada option. Or Norway. Or Switzerland. Or Narnia. Or our own tailor-made agreement, which will cost us nothing and give us everything. Brexit means up and down, left and right, the penny and the bun, it is infinitely virtuous and if we only believe, tap our heels three times, say "there's no place like home", then all our wishes will be granted, Kim Greist will escape with us, and tomorrow will be another day...
    LEGALLY BINDING

    Chortle.
    Nabavi will be along to explain shortly :D
    I'm FEVERISH with anticipation. ;)
    I had no idea that the Leavers placed such great store on the legal opinion of an unqualified Eurocrat. But I suppose critical thinking goes out of the window when the rush caused by mad Europhobia is coursing through the veins.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The food is lousy. And such small portions too... ;)

    The EU is entirely greedy and untrustworthy when we are a member, but if we leave they will be generous and trustworthy. Meanwhile we will pursue a free-trade protectionist approach, raising tariffs against all whilst exporting freely to all. We will maintain and increase growth whilst preventing all immigration...except from the ethnic group or ancestry of the person you are speaking to. We will adopt the Canada option. Or Norway. Or Switzerland. Or Narnia. Or our own tailor-made agreement, which will cost us nothing and give us everything. Brexit means up and down, left and right, the penny and the bun, it is infinitely virtuous and if we only believe, tap our heels three times, say "there's no place like home", then all our wishes will be granted, Kim Greist will escape with us, and tomorrow will be another day...
    LEGALLY BINDING

    Chortle.
    Nabavi will be along to explain shortly :D
    LOL.

    Maybe he can get round to finally explaining the small issue of that £1.7bn bill we paid in full.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The food is lousy. And such small portions too... ;)

    The EU is entirely greedy and untrustworthy when we are a member, but if we leave they will be generous and trustworthy. Meanwhile we will pursue a free-trade protectionist approach, raising tariffs against all whilst exporting freely to all. We will maintain and increase growth whilst preventing all immigration...except from the ethnic group or ancestry of the person you are speaking to. We will adopt the Canada option. Or Norway. Or Switzerland. Or Narnia. Or our own tailor-made agreement, which will cost us nothing and give us everything. Brexit means up and down, left and right, the penny and the bun, it is infinitely virtuous and if we only believe, tap our heels three times, say "there's no place like home", then all our wishes will be granted, Kim Greist will escape with us, and tomorrow will be another day...
    LEGALLY BINDING

    Chortle.
    Nabavi will be along to explain shortly :D
    The heads of 28 member states say: this is cool; the vice-prez of the EU parliament (subordinate, obvs, to the 28 member states) says: but wait.

    This is a betting site, right?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    annak said:

    How many British citizens that are living in How many British citizens that are living in eu countries are entitled to vote in the euref ? They could have a big say in the outcome.
    Example : in Ireland medical services are means tested, I am an irish citizen have worked and paid taxes here but because of the means test I have to pay for health services.
    My neighbours from Manchester never worked here but are retired. They get free health care because under eu rules the uk government have to pay for them.
    I doubt very much these people will vote Leave.

    Welcome!

    Are you annak in the UK?
  • SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The food is lousy. And such small portions too... ;)

    The EU is entirely greedy and untrustworthy when we are a member, but if we leave they will be generous and trustworthy. Meanwhile we will pursue a free-trade protectionist approach, raising tariffs against all whilst exporting freely to all. We will maintain and increase growth whilst preventing all immigration...except from the ethnic group or ancestry of the person you are speaking to. We will adopt the Canada option. Or Norway. Or Switzerland. Or Narnia. Or our own tailor-made agreement, which will cost us nothing and give us everything. Brexit means up and down, left and right, the penny and the bun, it is infinitely virtuous and if we only believe, tap our heels three times, say "there's no place like home", then all our wishes will be granted, Kim Greist will escape with us, and tomorrow will be another day...
    LEGALLY BINDING

    Chortle.
    Nabavi will be along to explain shortly :D
    I'm FEVERISH with anticipation. ;)
    I'm frothing with excitement.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,235
    Fat_Steve said:

    Yes, all of that. No hang on, none of that.

    SeanT said:

    LEGALLY BINDING. Chortle.

    Yes. Or No. One of the two. Damn, I've turned quantum. I shall have to ask me what I'm talking about.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The food is lousy. And such small portions too... ;)

    The EU is entirely greedy and untrustworthy when we are a member, but if we leave they will be generous and trustworthy. Meanwhile we will pursue a free-trade protectionist approach, raising tariffs against all whilst exporting freely to all. We will maintain and increase growth whilst preventing all immigration...except from the ethnic group or ancestry of the person you are speaking to. We will adopt the Canada option. Or Norway. Or Switzerland. Or Narnia. Or our own tailor-made agreement, which will cost us nothing and give us everything. Brexit means up and down, left and right, the penny and the bun, it is infinitely virtuous and if we only believe, tap our heels three times, say "there's no place like home", then all our wishes will be granted, Kim Greist will escape with us, and tomorrow will be another day...
    LEGALLY BINDING

    Chortle.
    Nabavi will be along to explain shortly :D
    I'm FEVERISH with anticipation. ;)
    I'm frothing with excitement.
    Careful you don't peak too soon ;)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    annak said:

    How many British citizens that are living in How many British citizens that are living in eu countries are entitled to vote in the euref ? They could have a big say in the outcome.
    Example : in Ireland medical services are means tested, I am an irish citizen have worked and paid taxes here but because of the means test I have to pay for health services.
    My neighbours from Manchester never worked here but are retired. They get free health care because under eu rules the uk government have to pay for them.
    I doubt very much these people will vote Leave.

    Welcome!

    Are you annak in the UK?

    annak said:

    How many British citizens that are living in How many British citizens that are living in eu countries are entitled to vote in the euref ? They could have a big say in the outcome.
    Example : in Ireland medical services are means tested, I am an irish citizen have worked and paid taxes here but because of the means test I have to pay for health services.
    My neighbours from Manchester never worked here but are retired. They get free health care because under eu rules the uk government have to pay for them.
    I doubt very much these people will vote Leave.

    Welcome!

    Are you annak in the UK?
    She can't be because she seems to be a Remainer. It's Leavers who don't know what they want but they know how to get it.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The food is lousy. And such small portions too... ;)

    The EU is entirely greedy and untrustworthy when we are a member, but if we leave they will be generous and trustworthy. Meanwhile we will pursue a free-trade protectionist approach, raising tariffs against all whilst exporting freely to all. We will maintain and increase growth whilst preventing all immigration...except from the ethnic group or ancestry of the person you are speaking to. We will adopt the Canada option. Or Norway. Or Switzerland. Or Narnia. Or our own tailor-made agreement, which will cost us nothing and give us everything. Brexit means up and down, left and right, the penny and the bun, it is infinitely virtuous and if we only believe, tap our heels three times, say "there's no place like home", then all our wishes will be granted, Kim Greist will escape with us, and tomorrow will be another day...
    LEGALLY BINDING

    Chortle.
    Nabavi will be along to explain shortly :D
    I'm FEVERISH with anticipation. ;)
    I had no idea that the Leavers placed such great store on the legal opinion of an unqualified Eurocrat. But I suppose critical thinking goes out of the window when the rush caused by mad Europhobia is coursing through the veins.
    Eurocrats do what they like regardless of whether or not it is legal/illegal, e.g. eurozone bailouts.

    Christine Lagarde as French finance minister boasted:
    "We violated all the rules because we wanted to close ranks and really rescue the euro zone. The Treaty of Lisbon was very straightforward. No bailouts.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The food is lousy. And such small portions too... ;)

    The EU is entirely greedy and untrustworthy when we are a member, but if we leave they will be generous and trustworthy. Meanwhile we will pursue a free-trade protectionist approach, raising tariffs against all whilst exporting freely to all. We will maintain and increase growth whilst preventing all immigration...except from the ethnic group or ancestry of the person you are speaking to. We will adopt the Canada option. Or Norway. Or Switzerland. Or Narnia. Or our own tailor-made agreement, which will cost us nothing and give us everything. Brexit means up and down, left and right, the penny and the bun, it is infinitely virtuous and if we only believe, tap our heels three times, say "there's no place like home", then all our wishes will be granted, Kim Greist will escape with us, and tomorrow will be another day...
    LEGALLY BINDING

    Chortle.
    Nabavi will be along to explain shortly :D
    I'm FEVERISH with anticipation. ;)
    I had no idea that the Leavers placed such great store on the legal opinion of an unqualified Eurocrat. But I suppose critical thinking goes out of the window when the rush caused by mad Europhobia is coursing through the veins.
    Some of us Mr Meeks did our own legal analysis. We may be wrong but I have spent more time analysing EU laws than is really sensible in a well-lived life. And FWIW I thought the deal was a bit "meh" and not worth making a song and dance about. Cameron did so he can hardly be surprised if others call him out on it.

    A bit of English understatement would have been much more comme il faut.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    It highlights just how bad it was, in that it barely qualifies as a deal, let alone a bad one.

    So is your complaint that he secured it, or didn't secure it?

    Still confused...
    The food is lousy. And such small portions too... ;)

    The EU is entirely greedy and untrustworthy when we are a member, but if we leave they will be generous and trustworthy. Meanwhile we will pursue a free-trade protectionist approach, raising tariffs against all whilst exporting freely to all. We will maintain and increase growth whilst preventing all immigration...except from the ethnic group or ancestry of the person you are speaking to. We will adopt the Canada option. Or Norway. Or Switzerland. Or Narnia. Or our own tailor-made agreement, which will cost us nothing and give us everything. Brexit means up and down, left and right, the penny and the bun, it is infinitely virtuous and if we only believe, tap our heels three times, say "there's no place like home", then all our wishes will be granted, Kim Greist will escape with us, and tomorrow will be another day...
    LEGALLY BINDING

    Chortle.
    Nabavi will be along to explain shortly :D
    I'm FEVERISH with anticipation. ;)
    I had no idea that the Leavers placed such great store on the legal opinion of an unqualified Eurocrat. But I suppose critical thinking goes out of the window when the rush caused by mad Europhobia is coursing through the veins.
    You think the opinion of a leading Eurocrat is not significant? - it speaks to how seriously the others, particularly within the organisation, regard promises made, and that is surely of at least some significance given, as a political project, the EU is willing to interpret things in ways others may later think are wildly different to that intended in order to safeguard the project.
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