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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov: Tory voters most ready to change EURef vote when asked what they’d do if BREXIT would cost them £100 a year

There’s a new YouGov poll out which has REMAIN back with in lead from the level pegging. Actual figures are 40% to 39% so all within margin of errot.

Read the full story here

MP_SE

First like Leave.

MaxPB

We need to see the same question with Remain as well. Otherwise it's not useful. Both sides will be ramping up the fear factor, a lot of people I know have begun to realise that a Remain vote isn't a vote for the status quo, Vote Leave are beginning to campaign on that message and it is a powerful one. The nation of Europe with Brussels as its capital isn't a vision of Europe that people want.

chestnut

"I will never, ever forgive the Labour party for allowing this mass immigration with no demands put on what people should be paid when they come to this country. I will never forgive them for destroying the jobs of my mates, because they allowed their jobs to be undercut with stupid thinking on Europe, letting them all in, so they can live 10 to a room, working for Polish wages,” he told the Sunday Times magazine.

Even multi-millionaire Roger Daltrey understands that this isn't a hypothetical, and that many have already seen their wages take a tumble because of the EU.

tlg86

I see our esteemed Chancellor has told us that mortgage rates might go up if we leave the EU. I say bring it on.

Theuniondivvie

chestnut said:

"I will never, ever forgive the Labour party for allowing this mass immigration with no demands put on what people should be paid when they come to this country. I will never forgive them for destroying the jobs of my mates, because they allowed their jobs to be undercut with stupid thinking on Europe, letting them all in, so they can live 10 to a room, working for Polish wages,” he told the Sunday Times magazine.

Even multi-millionaire Roger Daltrey understands that this isn't a hypothetical, and that many have already seen their wages take a tumble because of the EU.

He must be raging that it's now even higher under the Cons.

RoyalBlue

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36043219

The mind boggles. It's 'authoritarian' to want to roll back the state.

hunchman

Premise of the question is total rubbish, so a completely worthless poll. How about if leaving the EU made you around £180 year better off (£11bn annual EU contribution / 63m population)?

hunchman

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

jayfdee

tlg86 said:

I see our esteemed Chancellor has told us that mortgage rates might go up if we leave the EU. I say bring it on.

Bring on leave, or bring on higher interest rates?
Many savers have suffered miserable interest rates which support the lower mortgage rates, but I suppose some of us own property that has soared in value.
However you cannot pay at the supermarket without cash, the value of your property does not pay the bills.

chestnut

hunchman said:

Premise of the question is total rubbish, so a completely worthless poll. How about if leaving the EU made you around £180 year better off (£11bn annual EU contribution / 63m population)?

Imagine if leave made a promise like a manifesto pledge. In year one of exit we will give every adult UK passport holder a personal cheque for £250 - it's your EU Refund.

rcs1000

hunchman said:

Premise of the question is total rubbish, so a completely worthless poll. How about if leaving the EU made you around £180 year better off (£11bn annual EU contribution / 63m population)?

I wish that were true. Project Fear is attempting to find the 'magic' number. The one that is small enough to appear plausible, but which changes a significant number of votes. £100 might be it.

Danny565

Sure, if it was 100% conclusively proven that people would be better off by staying in the EU, of course the majority would vote to Remain.

But it's not going to be 100% conclusively proven in the eyes of swing voters, since there's going to be a war of words about it right up until polling day. Especially now "Leave" are getting their act together by focussing on how the EU Budget contribution would be better spent in Britain -- so this poll question is a red herring.

tlg86

jayfdee said:

tlg86 said:

I see our esteemed Chancellor has told us that mortgage rates might go up if we leave the EU. I say bring it on.

Bring on leave, or bring on higher interest rates?
Many savers have suffered miserable interest rates which support the lower mortgage rates, but I suppose some of us own property that has soared in value.
However you cannot pay at the supermarket without cash, the value of your property does not pay the bills.

Both. I suspect it's a decent attack line for Remain as they calculate that those with big mortgages are susceptible to threats of higher rates. But I think the seven years of low interest rates has not been good my generation and those younger than me who have almost no chance of getting on the property ladder.

tlg86

BoJo on good form in Manchester. I was watching his speech on Sky News when he spotted Michael Crick doing a (live) piece to camera on Channel 4 news. BoJo immediately called him out and had him moved further away to much laughter from the crowd.

rcs1000

chestnut said:

"I will never, ever forgive the Labour party for allowing this mass immigration with no demands put on what people should be paid when they come to this country. I will never forgive them for destroying the jobs of my mates, because they allowed their jobs to be undercut with stupid thinking on Europe, letting them all in, so they can live 10 to a room, working for Polish wages,” he told the Sunday Times magazine.

Even multi-millionaire Roger Daltrey understands that this isn't a hypothetical, and that many have already seen their wages take a tumble because of the EU.

Although, by that logic, not allowing people to leave their home towns surely increases wages, and therefore the general level of prosperity.

Truth be told, in an increasingly globalised world, we'll get what our skills command on the world stage. The Polish electrician may be hastening the process of equalisation, but it's going to happen to all of us, nonetheless.

Alistair

SeanT said:

Alistair said:

SeanT said:

Alistair said:

SeanT said:

It's been raining hard, and non stop, for the last seven hours, here in old Camden Town.

Seven hours straight, like a monsoon.

I didn't realise Glasgow was monsoon country.

You're getting the same crap? I can't remember ceaseless hard rain like this.

I can't speak for Glasgow as I live now in cold dry windy Edinburgh but every day is continuous downpour day in Glasgow.

It was a difficult recalibration for me when I moved to Edinburgh. People complaining about torrential rain for levels of rainfall that barely registered as "wet, maybe I can go without a coat" when I lived on the west coast.

I love Scotland but I confess the weather and latitude prevents me ever living there. The darkness in the winter is just too much.

London is about as far north as I can tolerate. Even here I can feel like I'm in a strange grey prison any time from November to March, a prison I MUST escape.

But in summer the sun never sets, like literally. I believe at Edinburgh and higher latitudes at summer solstice it doesn't actually get to full astronomical night for 1 day a year.

Indigo

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Premise of the question is total rubbish, so a completely worthless poll. How about if leaving the EU made you around £180 year better off (£11bn annual EU contribution / 63m population)?

I wish that were true. Project Fear is attempting to find the 'magic' number. The one that is small enough to appear plausible, but which changes a significant number of votes. £100 might be it.

It's going to be interesting, if Leave run with the "there is no status quo", thats a powerful message as well, and EU had the idiocy to have the paving votes for the EU Army and common defense policy this week as well.

rcs1000

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Roger

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

"Leave must be hitting home."

I heard George Galloway and Gisela Stuart speak for Leave today. I thought Galloway was good and Gisela was hopeless. But the main point is that they were saying completely different things and they're both on the left. To the uninitiated Leave are looking shambolic

Danny565

Polls like this are equivalent to the polls a few months ago saying that there would be a big swing to "Remain" if Cameron said his renegotiation had been a success. The problem was that Cameron celebrating his renegotiation was not going to (and did not) happen in a vacuum, contrary to the premise of that poll question -- in reality, there were also many people saying Cameron was talking bollocks and that his deal was rubbish.

Equally, claims from the "Remain" campaign that people will be £100 better off are also not going to happen in a vacuum - they're going to be rebutted in atleast a semi-convincing way by the other side.

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Yes, I've been toying with the idea of buying an off the shelf company for something I'm working on, much less hassle than doing it myself.

Speedy

I think over the next few days the news will be flooded by that new earthquake in Japan.
USGS forecasts Fatalities to be somewhere 100-1000, and damages of 1-100$ billion:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20005iis#pager

It struck right at the center of a city of a million people.

watford30

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Hunchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

welshowl

Alistair said:

SeanT said:

Alistair said:

SeanT said:

Alistair said:

SeanT said:

It's been raining hard, and non stop, for the last seven hours, here in old Camden Town.

Seven hours straight, like a monsoon.

I didn't realise Glasgow was monsoon country.

You're getting the same crap? I can't remember ceaseless hard rain like this.

I can't speak for Glasgow as I live now in cold dry windy Edinburgh but every day is continuous downpour day in Glasgow.

It was a difficult recalibration for me when I moved to Edinburgh. People complaining about torrential rain for levels of rainfall that barely registered as "wet, maybe I can go without a coat" when I lived on the west coast.

I love Scotland but I confess the weather and latitude prevents me ever living there. The darkness in the winter is just too much.

London is about as far north as I can tolerate. Even here I can feel like I'm in a strange grey prison any time from November to March, a prison I MUST escape.

But in summer the sun never sets, like literally. I believe at Edinburgh and higher latitudes at summer solstice it doesn't actually get to full astronomical night for 1 day a year.

Astronomical twilight lasts all night from about Paris northwards at the solstice, nautical from about N Yorkshire northwards and civil twilight lasts all night for a few days around the solstice in the far north of the Shetlands. In laymans terms it doesn't really go very dark at all for very long once you start getting a decent way up into Scotland.

jayfdee

tlg86 said:

jayfdee said:

tlg86 said:

I see our esteemed Chancellor has told us that mortgage rates might go up if we leave the EU. I say bring it on.

Bring on leave, or bring on higher interest rates?
Many savers have suffered miserable interest rates which support the lower mortgage rates, but I suppose some of us own property that has soared in value.
However you cannot pay at the supermarket without cash, the value of your property does not pay the bills.

Both. I suspect it's a decent attack line for Remain as they calculate that those with big mortgages are susceptible to threats of higher rates. But I think the seven years of low interest rates has not been good my generation and those younger than me who have almost no chance of getting on the property ladder.

Yes the property ladder,I hope you get what you want, and I sympathise with the present younger generation, it seems a viable way is bank of "Mum and Dad", who can use the huge property value increase to feed down to the next generation.
I had to help my children, but of course some "Mum and Dads", are struggling with having inadequate pension arrangements.
Not easy.

tlg86

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

"I will never, ever forgive the Labour party for allowing this mass immigration with no demands put on what people should be paid when they come to this country. I will never forgive them for destroying the jobs of my mates, because they allowed their jobs to be undercut with stupid thinking on Europe, letting them all in, so they can live 10 to a room, working for Polish wages,” he told the Sunday Times magazine.

Even multi-millionaire Roger Daltrey understands that this isn't a hypothetical, and that many have already seen their wages take a tumble because of the EU.

Although, by that logic, not allowing people to leave their home towns surely increases wages, and therefore the general level of prosperity.

Truth be told, in an increasingly globalised world, we'll get what our skills command on the world stage. The Polish electrician may be hastening the process of equalisation, but it's going to happen to all of us, nonetheless.

This is going to sound incredibly simplistic but this is what it comes down to for me. I am happy to have free movement of labour around the EU/EEA. But in return we need to start dismantling the welfare state and NHS. We can have one or the other, but not both.

welshowl

tlg86 said:

jayfdee said:

tlg86 said:

I see our esteemed Chancellor has told us that mortgage rates might go up if we leave the EU. I say bring it on.

Bring on leave, or bring on higher interest rates?
Many savers have suffered miserable interest rates which support the lower mortgage rates, but I suppose some of us own property that has soared in value.
However you cannot pay at the supermarket without cash, the value of your property does not pay the bills.

Both. I suspect it's a decent attack line for Remain as they calculate that those with big mortgages are susceptible to threats of higher rates. But I think the seven years of low interest rates has not been good my generation and those younger than me who have almost no chance of getting on the property ladder.

I dream of higher bloody interest rates. In my darker moments I wonder whether even the raving lunacy of Corbyn might just be offset personally by the gains of the inevitable higher interest rates that would follow his marching into no 10. Tough call but that's how badly I want higher rates. Osborne: you are really having a laugh if you think it scares me.

TCPoliticalBetting

tlg86 said:

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

"I will never, ever forgive the Labour party for allowing this mass immigration with no demands put on what people should be paid when they come to this country. I will never forgive them for destroying the jobs of my mates, because they allowed their jobs to be undercut with stupid thinking on Europe, letting them all in, so they can live 10 to a room, working for Polish wages,” he told the Sunday Times magazine.

Even multi-millionaire Roger Daltrey understands that this isn't a hypothetical, and that many have already seen their wages take a tumble because of the EU.

Although, by that logic, not allowing people to leave their home towns surely increases wages, and therefore the general level of prosperity.

Truth be told, in an increasingly globalised world, we'll get what our skills command on the world stage. The Polish electrician may be hastening the process of equalisation, but it's going to happen to all of us, nonetheless.

This is going to sound incredibly simplistic but this is what it comes down to for me. I am happy to have free movement of labour around the EU/EEA. But in return we need to start dismantling the welfare state and NHS. We can have one or the other, but not both.

Yes we can and we end up on the growth path of France.....

rcs1000

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Henchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

Hunchman's pal has discovered that a number of dodgy resource companies were formed at this address on Finchley Road. He then discovered that 250,000 other companies were formed at the same address, and that many of them had directors for only a day!

He therefore decided that this address on Finchley Road is the centre of an international conspiracy, rather than coming to the conclusion best warranted by the facts: that he's discovered a company that creates companies.

tlg86

jayfdee said:

tlg86 said:

jayfdee said:

tlg86 said:

I see our esteemed Chancellor has told us that mortgage rates might go up if we leave the EU. I say bring it on.

Bring on leave, or bring on higher interest rates?
Many savers have suffered miserable interest rates which support the lower mortgage rates, but I suppose some of us own property that has soared in value.
However you cannot pay at the supermarket without cash, the value of your property does not pay the bills.

Both. I suspect it's a decent attack line for Remain as they calculate that those with big mortgages are susceptible to threats of higher rates. But I think the seven years of low interest rates has not been good my generation and those younger than me who have almost no chance of getting on the property ladder.

Yes the property ladder,I hope you get what you want, and I sympathise with the present younger generation, it seems a viable way is bank of "Mum and Dad", who can use the huge property value increase to feed down to the next generation.
I had to help my children, but of course some "Mum and Dads", are struggling with having inadequate pension arrangements.
Not easy.

I'm fortunate in that I can still live at home with my parents but I'm getting to the point where I really should take the plunge. I was thinking last year, let's just wait to see the outcome of the election. Now it's the same with the referendum. I'm not an economist, but something just doesn't feel right and I'm damned if I'm going to buy a property only for prices to crash shortly after. But I suppose everyone else goes through the same risk.

I'm more concerned with couples I know who can't buy. As long as they can't buy they won't start a family. It worries me that we're heading to a situation whereby a chunk of the population doesn't have kids because they can't afford to buy and aren't on benefits.

Theuniondivvie

tlg86 said:

BoJo on good form in Manchester. I was watching his speech on Sky News when he spotted Michael Crick doing a (live) piece to camera on Channel 4 news. BoJo immediately called him out and had him moved further away to much laughter from the crowd.

Did he have the flags moved further away at the same time?

https://twitter.com/TimPBouverie/status/721030313720287232

rcs1000

tlg86 said:

jayfdee said:

tlg86 said:

jayfdee said:

tlg86 said:

I see our esteemed Chancellor has told us that mortgage rates might go up if we leave the EU. I say bring it on.

Bring on leave, or bring on higher interest rates?
Many savers have suffered miserable interest rates which support the lower mortgage rates, but I suppose some of us own property that has soared in value.
However you cannot pay at the supermarket without cash, the value of your property does not pay the bills.

Both. I suspect it's a decent attack line for Remain as they calculate that those with big mortgages are susceptible to threats of higher rates. But I think the seven years of low interest rates has not been good my generation and those younger than me who have almost no chance of getting on the property ladder.

Yes the property ladder,I hope you get what you want, and I sympathise with the present younger generation, it seems a viable way is bank of "Mum and Dad", who can use the huge property value increase to feed down to the next generation.
I had to help my children, but of course some "Mum and Dads", are struggling with having inadequate pension arrangements.
Not easy.

I'm fortunate in that I can still live at home with my parents but I'm getting to the point where I really should take the plunge. I was thinking last year, let's just wait to see the outcome of the election. Now it's the same with the referendum. I'm not an economist, but something just doesn't feel right and I'm damned if I'm going to buy a property only for prices to crash shortly after. But I suppose everyone else goes through the same risk.

I'm more concerned with couples I know who can't buy. As long as they can't buy they won't start a family. It worries me that we're heading to a situation whereby a chunk of the population doesn't have kids because they can't afford to buy and aren't on benefits.

If I wasn't really busy with a whole bunch of different things (my day job looking after other people's money, Crowdscores, Betgenius, PythonAnywhere, and my family), I would look to create a Property Ladder Investment. This would enable people who were renting, or early on in their career, to own a 'chunk' of a property, and which would be levered in the same way as traditional property.

So, you could decide to allocate (say) 10k of your money towards the equivalent of a property (say 50k gross). It would enable people to be out of the property market - because they're going abroad, or because they need to rent in an area before they buy etc - without losing exposure.

Sadly, I'm rather busy right now.

Edit to add: oh yes, and admin-ing Politicalbetting, and posting occasionally.

watford30

rcs1000 said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Henchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

Hunchman's pal has discovered that a number of dodgy resource companies were formed at this address on Finchley Road. He then discovered that 250,000 other companies were formed at the same address, and that many of them had directors for only a day!

He therefore decided that this address on Finchley Road is the centre of an international conspiracy, rather than coming to the conclusion best warranted by the facts: that he's discovered a company that creates companies.

O. M. G.

Next, you'll be revealing that some of them changed their names, and briefly had the same Directors and Secretaries as each other.

rcs1000

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Henchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

Hunchman's pal has discovered that a number of dodgy resource companies were formed at this address on Finchley Road. He then discovered that 250,000 other companies were formed at the same address, and that many of them had directors for only a day!

He therefore decided that this address on Finchley Road is the centre of an international conspiracy, rather than coming to the conclusion best warranted by the facts: that he's discovered a company that creates companies.

O. M. G.

Next, you'll be revealing that some of them changed their names, and briefly had the same Directors and Secretaries as each other.

Yep, that's in there too.

watford30

rcs1000 said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Henchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

Hunchman's pal has discovered that a number of dodgy resource companies were formed at this address on Finchley Road. He then discovered that 250,000 other companies were formed at the same address, and that many of them had directors for only a day!

He therefore decided that this address on Finchley Road is the centre of an international conspiracy, rather than coming to the conclusion best warranted by the facts: that he's discovered a company that creates companies.

O. M. G.

Next, you'll be revealing that some of them changed their names, and briefly had the same Directors and Secretaries as each other.

Yep, that's in there too.

Have you considered calling Ghostbusters?

rcs1000

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Henchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

Hunchman's pal has discovered that a number of dodgy resource companies were formed at this address on Finchley Road. He then discovered that 250,000 other companies were formed at the same address, and that many of them had directors for only a day!

He therefore decided that this address on Finchley Road is the centre of an international conspiracy, rather than coming to the conclusion best warranted by the facts: that he's discovered a company that creates companies.

O. M. G.

Next, you'll be revealing that some of them changed their names, and briefly had the same Directors and Secretaries as each other.

Yep, that's in there too.

Have you considered calling Ghostbusters?

ROTFL

TCPoliticalBetting

"Homeowners will see their mortgage costs rise if Britain votes to leave the European Union, the Chancellor has claimed. George Osborne said he believed it was "likely" that an exit would push up borrowing rates for consumers if banks reined-in lending in an environment of "financial stress". He also suggested that payments could rise if the Bank of England was forced to raise interest rates in response to a rapid increase in inflation if a tumbling pound pushed up prices."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/15/mortgage-bills-will-rise-if-uk-votes-for-brexit-warns-osborne/

A real sign of desperation. Osborne says it in the USA rather than here in the UK. I guess he is upset and depressed watching his political career go down the toilet?

Charles

tlg86 said:

But I think the seven years of low interest rates has not been good my generation

I was made to feel my age today.

I was bemoaning the fact that there was a generation of people in the City who didn't understand the concept of the cost of money because interest rates had been so low for so long.

Until she pointed out that she started her career in 2008...

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Premise of the question is total rubbish, so a completely worthless poll. How about if leaving the EU made you around £180 year better off (£11bn annual EU contribution / 63m population)?

I wish that were true. Project Fear is attempting to find the 'magic' number. The one that is small enough to appear plausible, but which changes a significant number of votes. £100 might be it.

The Chairman of BSE has said Leave would lead to higher wages.

Stick that quote through everyone's letterboxes.

MTimT

RoyalBlue said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36043219

The mind boggles. It's 'authoritarian' to want to roll back the state.

Kahan has done some very useful work on this. The two basic axes are individualistic to communitarian, vs egalitarian to hierarchical (not authoritarian, which the BBC has used). It is the hierarchical communitarians who are in the totalitarian quadrant, whereas the Trump people will be more in the individualistic egalitarians, i.e. 180 degrees opposite. The Beeb, or Exeter, seem to have got something very wrong.

A more useful breakdown for US politics is with the two axes as +ve/-ve views on social risk, vs +ve/-ve views on deviancy. See Kahan, Why cultural dispositions matter and how to measure them. The Cultural Cognition Project 2013 at http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2013/12/2/why-cultural-predispositions-matter-how-to-measure-them-a-fr.html

For that chart, the red alphas are Bernie, the green betas are Hillary, the brown gammas are Trump, and the purple deltas are Cruz.

Charles

jayfdee said:

tlg86 said:

jayfdee said:

tlg86 said:

I see our esteemed Chancellor has told us that mortgage rates might go up if we leave the EU. I say bring it on.

Bring on leave, or bring on higher interest rates?
Many savers have suffered miserable interest rates which support the lower mortgage rates, but I suppose some of us own property that has soared in value.
However you cannot pay at the supermarket without cash, the value of your property does not pay the bills.

Both. I suspect it's a decent attack line for Remain as they calculate that those with big mortgages are susceptible to threats of higher rates. But I think the seven years of low interest rates has not been good my generation and those younger than me who have almost no chance of getting on the property ladder.

Yes the property ladder,I hope you get what you want, and I sympathise with the present younger generation, it seems a viable way is bank of "Mum and Dad", who can use the huge property value increase to feed down to the next generation.
I had to help my children, but of course some "Mum and Dads", are struggling with having inadequate pension arrangements.
Not easy.

I'm always grateful for the bank of Mum and Dad.

I just wish they didn't charge quite such high interest rates

MTimT

SeanT said:

Roger said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

"Leave must be hitting home."

I heard George Galloway and Gisela Stuart speak for Leave today. I thought Galloway was good and Gisela was hopeless. But the main point is that they were saying completely different things and they're both on the left. To the uninitiated Leave are looking shambolic

But, again - sigh - you have to explain how such a shambolic campaign is managing a DEAD HEAT in the polls.

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/

I'd be interested - sincerely - in your explanation, as a one-time ad professional. Perhaps LEAVE is simply a better product, so even if the sales pitch is rubbish, people will still prefer it? Genuine question.

Perhaps memes are more important than advertising in how people make up their minds. After all, in sales they do say that a referral is the best lead.

Casino_Royale

TCPoliticalBetting said:

"Homeowners will see their mortgage costs rise if Britain votes to leave the European Union, the Chancellor has claimed. George Osborne said he believed it was "likely" that an exit would push up borrowing rates for consumers if banks reined-in lending in an environment of "financial stress". He also suggested that payments could rise if the Bank of England was forced to raise interest rates in response to a rapid increase in inflation if a tumbling pound pushed up prices."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/15/mortgage-bills-will-rise-if-uk-votes-for-brexit-warns-osborne/

A real sign of desperation. Osborne says it in the USA rather than here in the UK. I guess he is upset and depressed watching his political career go down the toilet?

I increasingly agree with Alastair: Osborne should be the public face of the Remain campaign.

hunchman

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Hunchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

This will give you a flavour - there are companies registered at Winnington House, Woodberry House, ground floor flat, 1st floor flat, 2nd floor flat and 3rd floor flat at a place that I've shown you is a dump let alone having 6 separate addresses!

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/ZYOJZ3451qdjfJ3C1dHK08bcm44/appointments

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/KqO9raQfC4yZ08Z1MWM3H3UA5aM/appointments

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/ground-floor-2-woodberry-grove-north-finchley-london-n12-0dr-1103740249

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/first-floor-2-woodberry-grove-north-finchley-london-england-n12-0dr

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/2nd-floor-2-woodberry-grove-london-england-n12-0dr-922918523

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/3rd-floor-2-woodberry-grove-london-n12-0dr

Alistair

rcs1000 said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Henchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

Hunchman's pal has discovered that a number of dodgy resource companies were formed at this address on Finchley Road. He then discovered that 250,000 other companies were formed at the same address, and that many of them had directors for only a day!

He therefore decided that this address on Finchley Road is the centre of an international conspiracy, rather than coming to the conclusion best warranted by the facts: that he's discovered a company that creates companies.

O. M. G.

Next, you'll be revealing that some of them changed their names, and briefly had the same Directors and Secretaries as each other.

Yep, that's in there too.

I'm considering founding a company creation creation company. A one stop shop if you want to run a company creation company.

foxinsoxuk

Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.

Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.

chestnut

TCPoliticalBetting said:

"Homeowners will see their mortgage costs rise if Britain votes to leave the European Union, the Chancellor has claimed. George Osborne said he believed it was "likely" that an exit would push up borrowing rates for consumers if banks reined-in lending in an environment of "financial stress". He also suggested that payments could rise if the Bank of England was forced to raise interest rates in response to a rapid increase in inflation if a tumbling pound pushed up prices."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/15/mortgage-bills-will-rise-if-uk-votes-for-brexit-warns-osborne/

A real sign of desperation. Osborne says it in the USA rather than here in the UK. I guess he is upset and depressed watching his political career go down the toilet?

So, savers (most likely to be older people/leavers) would be better off.

I have to say, the idea of a UK Annual Independence Dividend (UK AID) payable to every UK passport holder from now until the 2020 election really appeals - then let the parties put up their competing priorities and offers.

RodCrosby

Trump not taking NY for granted.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwbqTt8vuco

Indigo

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.

Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.

Is that the sound of whistling I hear

tlg86

Charles said:

tlg86 said:

But I think the seven years of low interest rates has not been good my generation

I was made to feel my age today.

I was bemoaning the fact that there was a generation of people in the City who didn't understand the concept of the cost of money because interest rates had been so low for so long.

Until she pointed out that she started her career in 2008...

I left uni in 2008 and started work in May, 2009. I have known nothing other than base interest rates of 0.5%.

hunchman

tlg86 said:

jayfdee said:

tlg86 said:

jayfdee said:

tlg86 said:

I see our esteemed Chancellor has told us that mortgage rates might go up if we leave the EU. I say bring it on.

Bring on leave, or bring on higher interest rates?
Many savers have suffered miserable interest rates which support the lower mortgage rates, but I suppose some of us own property that has soared in value.
However you cannot pay at the supermarket without cash, the value of your property does not pay the bills.

Both. I suspect it's a decent attack line for Remain as they calculate that those with big mortgages are susceptible to threats of higher rates. But I think the seven years of low interest rates has not been good my generation and those younger than me who have almost no chance of getting on the property ladder.

Yes the property ladder,I hope you get what you want, and I sympathise with the present younger generation, it seems a viable way is bank of "Mum and Dad", who can use the huge property value increase to feed down to the next generation.
I had to help my children, but of course some "Mum and Dads", are struggling with having inadequate pension arrangements.
Not easy.

I'm fortunate in that I can still live at home with my parents but I'm getting to the point where I really should take the plunge. I was thinking last year, let's just wait to see the outcome of the election. Now it's the same with the referendum. I'm not an economist, but something just doesn't feel right and I'm damned if I'm going to buy a property only for prices to crash shortly after. But I suppose everyone else goes through the same risk.

I'm more concerned with couples I know who can't buy. As long as they can't buy they won't start a family. It worries me that we're heading to a situation whereby a chunk of the population doesn't have kids because they can't afford to buy and aren't on benefits.

Tig86 - you might want to have a look at the real estate business cycle at the bottom of this article in formulating your view:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2/

hunchman

MTimT said:

RoyalBlue said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36043219

The mind boggles. It's 'authoritarian' to want to roll back the state.

Kahan has done some very useful work on this. The two basic axes are individualistic to communitarian, vs egalitarian to hierarchical (not authoritarian, which the BBC has used). It is the hierarchical communitarians who are in the totalitarian quadrant, whereas the Trump people will be more in the individualistic egalitarians, i.e. 180 degrees opposite. The Beeb, or Exeter, seem to have got something very wrong.

A more useful breakdown for US politics is with the two axes as +ve/-ve views on social risk, vs +ve/-ve views on deviancy. See Kahan, Why cultural dispositions matter and how to measure them. The Cultural Cognition Project 2013 at http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2013/12/2/why-cultural-predispositions-matter-how-to-measure-them-a-fr.html

For that chart, the red alphas are Bernie, the green betas are Hillary, the brown gammas are Trump, and the purple deltas are Cruz.

Not Barbara Kahan from Finchley I hope!

foxinsoxuk

Indigo said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.

Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.

Is that the sound of whistling I hear

No, just interesting to see how cheap the supposed vital national sovereignty is, even to kippers. Interestingly the Labour voters are less easily bought.

AlastairMeeks

The Remain tactic of scaring about higher interest rates is noteworthy. A decision has been taken to appeal to (younger) mortgage holders at the risk of alienating (older) voters who have no mortgage but substantial savings.

It may be the start of a concerted effort to get younger voters out.

matt

hunchman said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Hunchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

This will give you a flavour - there are companies registered at Winnington House, Woodberry House, ground floor flat, 1st floor flat, 2nd floor flat and 3rd floor flat at a place that I've shown you is a dump let alone having 6 separate addresses!

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/ZYOJZ3451qdjfJ3C1dHK08bcm44/appointments

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/KqO9raQfC4yZ08Z1MWM3H3UA5aM/appointments

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/ground-floor-2-woodberry-grove-north-finchley-london-n12-0dr-1103740249

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/first-floor-2-woodberry-grove-north-finchley-london-england-n12-0dr

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/2nd-floor-2-woodberry-grove-london-england-n12-0dr-922918523

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/3rd-floor-2-woodberry-grove-london-n12-0dr

You really really don't want to look at Ugland House.

foxinsoxuk

foxinsoxuk said:

Indigo said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.

Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.

Is that the sound of whistling I hear

No, just interesting to see how cheap the supposed vital national sovereignty is, even to kippers. Interestingly the Labour voters are less easily bought.

Though there may be a ceiling effect in that more of the Labour voters are for Remain already.

foxinsoxuk

AlastairMeeks said:

The Remain tactic of scaring about higher interest rates is noteworthy. A decision has been taken to appeal to (younger) mortgage holders at the risk of alienating (older) voters who have no mortgage but substantial savings.

It may be the start of a concerted effort to get younger voters out.

With Leavers being demographically older C1DE's they are more likely to be borrowers rather than savers.

chestnut

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.

Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.

It's fabulous for Leave. It shows that votes can be bought.

Remain have no money to buy votes.

Leave have £18bn in gross contributions to the EU to play with.

I wonder how economists' models would look if that £18bn was pushed into UK residents' pockets. What would be the prospects for domestic growth and jobs?

watford30

hunchman said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Hunchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

This will give you a flavour - there are companies registered at Winnington House, Woodberry House, ground floor flat, 1st floor flat, 2nd floor flat and 3rd floor flat at a place that I've shown you is a dump let alone having 6 separate addresses!

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/ZYOJZ3451qdjfJ3C1dHK08bcm44/appointments

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/KqO9raQfC4yZ08Z1MWM3H3UA5aM/appointments

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/ground-floor-2-woodberry-grove-north-finchley-london-n12-0dr-1103740249

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/first-floor-2-woodberry-grove-north-finchley-london-england-n12-0dr

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/2nd-floor-2-woodberry-grove-london-england-n12-0dr-922918523

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/3rd-floor-2-woodberry-grove-london-n12-0dr

Those companies use that address as a correspondence address for the Administrator on formation, one Marion BLACK. They're listed under 'Officers', and it shows the date of their appointment and resignation.

Click on the Company name highlighted in blue on the CH website that you linked to, and it will give you the Registered Office, and all the other details. Looks as if someone hasn't updated the data at Companies House, or the Returns haven't been made since they were created. Nothing sinister.

hunchman

watford30 said:

hunchman said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Hunchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

This will give you a flavour - there are companies registered at Winnington House, Woodberry House, ground floor flat, 1st floor flat, 2nd floor flat and 3rd floor flat at a place that I've shown you is a dump let alone having 6 separate addresses!

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/ZYOJZ3451qdjfJ3C1dHK08bcm44/appointments

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/KqO9raQfC4yZ08Z1MWM3H3UA5aM/appointments

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/ground-floor-2-woodberry-grove-north-finchley-london-n12-0dr-1103740249

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/first-floor-2-woodberry-grove-north-finchley-london-england-n12-0dr

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/2nd-floor-2-woodberry-grove-london-england-n12-0dr-922918523

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/3rd-floor-2-woodberry-grove-london-n12-0dr

Those companies use that address as a correspondence address. Click on the name highlighted in blue on the CH website that you linked to, and it will give you the Registered Office. Looks as if someone hasn't updated the data at Companies House, or the Returns haven't been made since formation. Nothing sinister.

Where would you deliver the post for all these companies for all 6 addresses in the picture I gave you earlier in this thread?!

EPG

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.

Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.

It's fabulous for Leave. It shows that votes can be bought.

Remain have no money to buy votes.

Leave have £18bn in gross contributions to the EU to play with.

I wonder how economists' models would like if that £18bn was pushed into UK residents' pockets. What would be the prospects for domestic growth and jobs?

You need the net contributions.
And there is still a contribution if in the EEA, which every LEAVEr here wants

AndyJS

Research on how each area is likely to vote in the referendum:

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/can-we-really-not-predict-who-will-vote-for-brexit-and-where/

foxinsoxuk

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.

Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.

It's fabulous for Leave. It shows that votes can be bought.

Remain have no money to buy votes.

Leave have £18bn in gross contributions to the EU to play with.

I wonder how economists' models would like if that £18bn was pushed into UK residents' pockets. What would be the prospects for domestic growth and jobs?

Sure, I expect Leave to push that line, just as I expect Remain to push the risk of price rises due to the pound devaluing, the estimated shrinkage in GDP, the effect on houseprices etc.It works both ways.

If I were Hunchman I would spy the city traders planning a Sterling crisis and stockmarket crash a week or two before June 24th.

On the other hand our net budget contribution to the EU last year was €117, so just under £100. This is 10th out of 13 net contributors to the EU.



http://money-go-round.eu/

watford30

hunchman said:

watford30 said:

hunchman said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Hunchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

This will give you a flavour - there are companies registered at Winnington House, Woodberry House, ground floor flat, 1st floor flat, 2nd floor flat and 3rd floor flat at a place that I've shown you is a dump let alone having 6 separate addresses!

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/ZYOJZ3451qdjfJ3C1dHK08bcm44/appointments

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/KqO9raQfC4yZ08Z1MWM3H3UA5aM/appointments

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/ground-floor-2-woodberry-grove-north-finchley-london-n12-0dr-1103740249

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/first-floor-2-woodberry-grove-north-finchley-london-england-n12-0dr

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/2nd-floor-2-woodberry-grove-london-england-n12-0dr-922918523

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/3rd-floor-2-woodberry-grove-london-n12-0dr

Those companies use that address as a correspondence address. Click on the name highlighted in blue on the CH website that you linked to, and it will give you the Registered Office. Looks as if someone hasn't updated the data at Companies House, or the Returns haven't been made since formation. Nothing sinister.

Where would you deliver the post for all these companies for all 6 addresses in the picture I gave you earlier in this thread?!

You don't understand how Companies are formed do you?

Read my edited post again, and try clicking on some of those links at the Companies House website. You'll find the names and addresses of the Current Directors and the many different Registered Offices.

chestnut

Some figures - these are net contributions and post-rebate.

Indigo

AlastairMeeks said:

The Remain tactic of scaring about higher interest rates is noteworthy. A decision has been taken to appeal to (younger) mortgage holders at the risk of alienating (older) voters who have no mortgage but substantial savings.

It may be the start of a concerted effort to get younger voters out.

If that is the plan it was curious to choice to put the referendum on top of Glastonbury.

EPG

Generally I think people are resistant to the idea of a Magic Money Tree - perhaps overly so in the cases of policies of fundamental change like Brexit, after which huge gains or losses are conceivable.
A hundred pounds may also sound too small to be a bribe worth taking.

hunchman

foxinsoxuk said:

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.

Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.

It's fabulous for Leave. It shows that votes can be bought.

Remain have no money to buy votes.

Leave have £18bn in gross contributions to the EU to play with.

I wonder how economists' models would like if that £18bn was pushed into UK residents' pockets. What would be the prospects for domestic growth and jobs?

Sure, I expect Leave to push that line, just as I expect Remain to push the risk of price rises due to the pound devaluing, the estimated shrinkage in GDP, the effect on houseprices etc.It works both ways.

If I were Hunchman I would spy the city traders planning a Sterling crisis and stockmarket crash a week or two before June 24th.

On the other hand our net budget contribution to the EU last year was €117, so just under £100. This is 10th out of 13 net contributors to the EU.



http://money-go-round.eu/

The model of all models is pointing to volatility around June / July come what may and May being a critical turning point (highest point in the composite line in the top):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/nigel-farage-on-dutch-referendum-april-6th/

Indigo

chestnut said:

Some figures - these are net contributions and post-rebate.

Does that include the money spent on stuff in the UK the EU wants to spend it on, rather than what the UK government wants to spend it on ?

hunchman

watford30 said:

hunchman said:

watford30 said:

hunchman said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Hunchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

This will give you a flavour - there are companies registered at Winnington House, Woodberry House, ground floor flat, 1st floor flat, 2nd floor flat and 3rd floor flat at a place that I've shown you is a dump let alone having 6 separate addresses!

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/ZYOJZ3451qdjfJ3C1dHK08bcm44/appointments

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/KqO9raQfC4yZ08Z1MWM3H3UA5aM/appointments

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/ground-floor-2-woodberry-grove-north-finchley-london-n12-0dr-1103740249

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/first-floor-2-woodberry-grove-north-finchley-london-england-n12-0dr

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/2nd-floor-2-woodberry-grove-london-england-n12-0dr-922918523

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/3rd-floor-2-woodberry-grove-london-n12-0dr

Those companies use that address as a correspondence address. Click on the name highlighted in blue on the CH website that you linked to, and it will give you the Registered Office. Looks as if someone hasn't updated the data at Companies House, or the Returns haven't been made since formation. Nothing sinister.

Where would you deliver the post for all these companies for all 6 addresses in the picture I gave you earlier in this thread?!

You don't understand how Companies are formed do you?

Watford30 - the most clueless and humourless poster on PB - enough said.

Indigo

EPG said:

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.

Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.

It's fabulous for Leave. It shows that votes can be bought.

Remain have no money to buy votes.

Leave have £18bn in gross contributions to the EU to play with.

I wonder how economists' models would like if that £18bn was pushed into UK residents' pockets. What would be the prospects for domestic growth and jobs?

You need the net contributions.
And there is still a contribution if in the EEA, which every LEAVEr here wants

Everyone Leaver here (more or less) wants, but is very unlikely to happen because it would be electoral suicide.

Roger

SeanT said:

Roger said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

"Leave must be hitting home."

I heard George Galloway and Gisela Stuart speak for Leave today. I thought Galloway was good and Gisela was hopeless. But the main point is that they were saying completely different things and they're both on the left. To the uninitiated Leave are looking shambolic

But, again - sigh - you have to explain how such a shambolic campaign is managing a DEAD HEAT in the polls.

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/

I'd be interested - sincerely - in your explanation, as a one-time ad professional. Perhaps LEAVE is simply a better product, so even if the sales pitch is rubbish, people will still prefer it? Genuine question.

It's difficult to shift what people believe to be true. It looks like both Leave and Remain have been level pegging for a while. The only ones listening to both arguments at the moment- if anyone- are the undecideds and they're likely to be the last to make up their minds. It's in the interests of both sides to give a clear message. It could well be Leave have a better product in which case make their argument coherent and we can judge

foxinsoxuk

chestnut said:

Some figures - these are net contributions and post-rebate.

One of the curiosities of all this is that the 2 years when we were net recipients from the EEC/EU (76 and 77) were the same 2 years where anti-EEC feeling was at amongst its highest according to polling.

Tykejohnno

What a positive marvelous speech earlier for leave by Boris,with that one speech he put's to shame the project fear by remain.

Alistair

tlg86 said:

Charles said:

tlg86 said:

But I think the seven years of low interest rates has not been good my generation

I was made to feel my age today.

I was bemoaning the fact that there was a generation of people in the City who didn't understand the concept of the cost of money because interest rates had been so low for so long.

Until she pointed out that she started her career in 2008...

I left uni in 2008 and started work in May, 2009. I have known nothing other than base interest rates of 0.5%.

When I was a child I had a post office savings account that paid me 10% interest.

Charles

tlg86 said:

Charles said:

tlg86 said:

But I think the seven years of low interest rates has not been good my generation

I was made to feel my age today.

I was bemoaning the fact that there was a generation of people in the City who didn't understand the concept of the cost of money because interest rates had been so low for so long.

Until she pointed out that she started her career in 2008...

I left uni in 2008 and started work in May, 2009. I have known nothing other than base interest rates of 0.5%.

That doesn't make me feel any better...

watford30

hunchman said:

watford30 said:

hunchman said:

watford30 said:

hunchman said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Hunchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

This will give you a flavour - there are companies registered at Winnington House, Woodberry House, ground floor flat, 1st floor flat, 2nd floor flat and 3rd floor flat at a place that I've shown you is a dump let alone having 6 separate addresses!

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/ZYOJZ3451qdjfJ3C1dHK08bcm44/appointments

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/KqO9raQfC4yZ08Z1MWM3H3UA5aM/appointments

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/ground-floor-2-woodberry-grove-north-finchley-london-n12-0dr-1103740249

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/first-floor-2-woodberry-grove-north-finchley-london-england-n12-0dr

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/2nd-floor-2-woodberry-grove-london-england-n12-0dr-922918523

http://www.ukaddressbook.uk/a/3rd-floor-2-woodberry-grove-london-n12-0dr

Those companies use that address as a correspondence address. Click on the name highlighted in blue on the CH website that you linked to, and it will give you the Registered Office. Looks as if someone hasn't updated the data at Companies House, or the Returns haven't been made since formation. Nothing sinister.

Where would you deliver the post for all these companies for all 6 addresses in the picture I gave you earlier in this thread?!

You don't understand how Companies are formed do you?

Watford30 - the most clueless and humourless poster on PB - enough said.

Funny. You seem convinced that thousands of businesses are all running from a small flat in Finchley, yet the pages you link to show exactly the opposite. 0/10, stand in the corner.

another_richard

From this morning:

rcs1000 said:

I saw Andrew Roberts speak at a dinner (he was excellent), and he made the point that the UK was utterly dependent on Middle Eastern oil. If - he postulated - the Nazis had reinforced North Africa and driven down through Egypt to our oil fields, we'd have been completely stuffed.

I thought almost all of the UK's oil imports came from the Americas during WWII.

chestnut

Indigo said:

chestnut said:

Some figures - these are net contributions and post-rebate.

Does that include the money spent on stuff in the UK the EU wants to spend it on, rather than what the UK government wants to spend it on ?

The blue bars are the gross contributions, the pink ones below the line are things like farming subsidies and the black line is the net contribution.

All of it is after the rebate has been applied.

Imagine the rebate was to vanish, perhaps under a Blair like Premiership, and then five additional countries join.

EPG

Indigo said:

EPG said:

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.

Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.

It's fabulous for Leave. It shows that votes can be bought.

Remain have no money to buy votes.

Leave have £18bn in gross contributions to the EU to play with.

I wonder how economists' models would like if that £18bn was pushed into UK residents' pockets. What would be the prospects for domestic growth and jobs?

You need the net contributions.
And there is still a contribution if in the EEA, which every LEAVEr here wants

Everyone Leaver here (more or less) wants, but is very unlikely to happen because it would be electoral suicide.

LOL. It's a good point.
"We know you want rid of the Polish, but our finance pals would quite like everything to remain as is TYVM."
Corbyn majority 2020 nailed on.

foxinsoxuk

hunchman said:

foxinsoxuk said:

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.

Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.

It's fabulous for Leave. It shows that votes can be bought.

Remain have no money to buy votes.

Leave have £18bn in gross contributions to the EU to play with.

I wonder how economists' models would like if that £18bn was pushed into UK residents' pockets. What would be the prospects for domestic growth and jobs?

Sure, I expect Leave to push that line, just as I expect Remain to push the risk of price rises due to the pound devaluing, the estimated shrinkage in GDP, the effect on houseprices etc.It works both ways.

If I were Hunchman I would spy the city traders planning a Sterling crisis and stockmarket crash a week or two before June 24th.

On the other hand our net budget contribution to the EU last year was €117, so just under £100. This is 10th out of 13 net contributors to the EU.



http://money-go-round.eu/

The model of all models is pointing to volatility around June / July come what may and May being a critical turning point (highest point in the composite line in the top):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/nigel-farage-on-dutch-referendum-april-6th/

For once I agree. Markets hate uncertainty, so I think a significant drop in stocks and Sterling is to be expected. "Sell in May and go away" will probably be better advice than usual this year.

cjo

It would be interesting to know what the result would have been had YouGov balanced the survey by asking what people would do if the UK left the EU and the standard of living increased and everyone was £100 better off.

This survey was not YouGov's finest hour.

chestnut

foxinsoxuk said:

One of the curiosities of all this is that the 2 years when we were net recipients from the EEC/EU (76 and 77) were the same 2 years where anti-EEC feeling was at amongst its highest according to polling.

The UK's receipts don't appear to have moved for a generation. The size of the bill on the other hand....

The 1970s EU debate pre-dates me.

Tim_B

Common sense prevails at AMC -

During the past few days, you may have heard media reports about another idea AMC Theatres was considering, testing whether some movie goers might want texting allowed in a small selection of our theatres. Unlike the many AMC advancements that you have applauded, we have heard loud and clear that this is a concept our audience does not want. In this age of social media, we get feedback from you almost instantaneously and as such, we are constantly listening. Accordingly, just as instantaneously, this is an idea that we have relegated to the cutting room floor.

With your advice in hand, there will be NO TEXTING ALLOWED in any of the auditoriums at AMC Theatres. Not today, not tomorrow and not in the foreseeable future.

Don't kid yourself, as folks have been texting in cinemas for years.

hunchman

watford30 said:

hunchman said:

watford30 said:

hunchman said:

watford30 said:

hunchman said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Hunchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

This will give you a flavour - there are companies registered at Winnington House, Woodberry House, will give you the Registered Office. Looks as if someone hasn't updated the data at Companies House, or the Returns haven't been made since formation. Nothing sinister.

Where would you deliver the post for all these companies for all 6 addresses in the picture I gave you earlier in this thread?!

You don't understand how Companies are formed do you?

Watford30 - the most clueless and humourless poster on PB - enough said.

Funny. You seem convinced that thousands of businesses are all running from a small flat in Finchley, yet the pages you link to show exactly the opposite. 0/10, stand in the corner.

You've just proved that you haven't even been following what I've been saying over the past 10 days! - the centre of the operation is THAT ADDRESS (788 790 Finchley Road). 2 Woodberry Grove is a conduit address along with 108 / 110 / 420 / 665 / 923 / 1033 and 1035 Finchley Road.

Casino_Royale

cjo said:

It would be interesting to know what the result would have been had YouGov balanced the survey by asking what people would do if the UK left the EU and the standard of living increased and everyone was £100 better off.

This survey was not YouGov's finest hour.

I suspect they are being funded by Remain and market testing, as Robert suggests downthread.

john_zims

@chestnut

'Some figures - these are net contributions and post-rebate.
<img src="https://fullfact.org/media/uploads/UK payments to EU budget since 1973.png"'



Does that include the £1.7 billion penalty payment for having a successful economy,that the UK was forced to pay the EU ?

foxinsoxuk

Alistair said:

tlg86 said:

Charles said:

tlg86 said:

But I think the seven years of low interest rates has not been good my generation

I was made to feel my age today.

I was bemoaning the fact that there was a generation of people in the City who didn't understand the concept of the cost of money because interest rates had been so low for so long.

Until she pointed out that she started her career in 2008...

I left uni in 2008 and started work in May, 2009. I have known nothing other than base interest rates of 0.5%.

When I was a child I had a post office savings account that paid me 10% interest.

My first mortgage was 1992 at 12% as I recall. The house was £42 000 in the University quarter of Leicester, so on paper fairly affordable on my income of £17 000 per year. It was mostly interest though, with hardly any capital repayments. Those houses go for £180 000 now, but are probably more affordable to a junior doctor with a 3% mortgage. When interest rates go up there will be lots of distress sales again. I remember the early nineties fairly well. Tough times economically, though not as bad as the 2008 crash.

Richard_Tyndall

EPG said:

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.

Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.

It's fabulous for Leave. It shows that votes can be bought.

Remain have no money to buy votes.

Leave have £18bn in gross contributions to the EU to play with.

I wonder how economists' models would like if that £18bn was pushed into UK residents' pockets. What would be the prospects for domestic growth and jobs?

You need the net contributions.
And there is still a contribution if in the EEA, which every LEAVEr here wants

Even net contribution is misleading because - with the exception of the rebate - the money the EU gives back to us not only comes with strict instructions on what it can be spent on but also very often requires additional matched funding from the UK Government.

So (to use 2014 as an example) if we get £5bn back from the EU out of our contribution of just over £19 billion, that £5 billion will have to be spent as the EU decides and a large part of it will require matched funding from the UK even if it is for projects we do not believe should be priority funded.

If we don't provide match funding then the EU does not give us the money back and people scream about how the Government is failing to let them benefit from EU money. Forgetting it is UK money in the first place and that taking it costs the Tax payer even more.

hunchman

rcs1000 said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Henchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

Hunchman's pal has discovered that a number of dodgy resource companies were formed at this address on Finchley Road. He then discovered that 250,000 other companies were formed at the same address, and that many of them had directors for only a day!

He therefore decided that this address on Finchley Road is the centre of an international conspiracy, rather than coming to the conclusion best warranted by the facts: that he's discovered a company that creates companies.

That's one way to describe 15 years of meticulous research with documents that conclusively prove fraud, theft and money laundering. It wouldn't be my way of describing it!

Casino_Royale

SeanT said:

Roger said:

SeanT said:

Roger said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

"Leave must be hitting home."

I heard George Galloway and Gisela Stuart speak for Leave today. I thought Galloway was good and Gisela was hopeless. But the main point is that they were saying completely different things and they're both on the left. To the uninitiated Leave are looking shambolic

But, again - sigh - you have to explain how such a shambolic campaign is managing a DEAD HEAT in the polls.

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/

I'd be interested - sincerely - in your explanation, as a one-time ad professional. Perhaps LEAVE is simply a better product, so even if the sales pitch is rubbish, people will still prefer it? Genuine question.

It's difficult to shift what people believe to be true. It looks like both Leave and Remain have been level pegging for a while. The only ones listening to both arguments at the moment- if anyone- are the undecideds and they're likely to be the last to make up their minds. It's in the interests of both sides to give a clear message. It could well be Leave have a better product in which case make their argument coherent and we can judge

Interesting, ta.

Confirms what I think, LEAVE really needs to coalesce around a clear alternative. Obviously that would be EFTA or EEA.

The pitch would be "This is where we will go, for the next few years, as we work out trade deals, to keep things absolutely stable: into EFTA. Free movement will continue, free trade will continue.

"But from the moment we vote LEAVE all things become possible, we can end EU immigration in total if you, the voter, so decide that, in the next General Election. We can leave the ECHR. We will be out of the hated CAP and CFP. The ECJ will no longer rule over us. And none of this is possible, none of this will happen, if we REMAIN, and if we REMAIN things could get a whole lot WORSE."

That's a better product than anything REMAIN are offering, and cogently presented by plausible people, would win, I think.

Vote Leave have already done this: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal

rcs1000

hunchman said:

rcs1000 said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Henchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

Hunchman's pal has discovered that a number of dodgy resource companies were formed at this address on Finchley Road. He then discovered that 250,000 other companies were formed at the same address, and that many of them had directors for only a day!

He therefore decided that this address on Finchley Road is the centre of an international conspiracy, rather than coming to the conclusion best warranted by the facts: that he's discovered a company that creates companies.

That's one way to describe 15 years of meticulous research with documents that conclusively prove fraud, theft and money laundering. It wouldn't be my way of describing it!

hunchman:

There have undoubtedly been companies created at that address that have been used for fraudulent purposes, and your friend deserves credit for discovering them.

But there have also been tens of thousands of other companies used for everything under sun, who's sole common factor is that they were created in a company creation factory on Finchley Road.

Richard_Tyndall

john_zims said:

@chestnut

'Some figures - these are net contributions and post-rebate.

The official 2015 figures do not come out until October in the Pink Book. The extra money we paid will be included then. The Pink Book always shows we have paid substantially more to the EU than the EU figures as there are lots of small ways we pay which are not usually included in the headline figures or projections.

EPG

Richard_Tyndall said:

EPG said:

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.

Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.

It's fabulous for Leave. It shows that votes can be bought.

Remain have no money to buy votes.

Leave have £18bn in gross contributions to the EU to play with.

I wonder how economists' models would like if that £18bn was pushed into UK residents' pockets. What would be the prospects for domestic growth and jobs?

You need the net contributions.
And there is still a contribution if in the EEA, which every LEAVEr here wants

Even net contribution is misleading because - with the exception of the rebate - the money the EU gives back to us not only comes with strict instructions on what it can be spent on but also very often requires additional matched funding from the UK Government.

So (to use 2014 as an example) if we get £5bn back from the EU out of our contribution of just over £19 billion, that £5 billion will have to be spent as the EU decides and a large part of it will require matched funding from the UK even if it is for projects we do not believe should be priority funded.

If we don't provide match funding then the EU does not give us the money back and people scream about how the Government is failing to let them benefit from EU money. Forgetting it is UK money in the first place and that taking it costs the Tax payer even more.

OK. Still, money doesn't smell. People in rural areas will probably not mind that the EU tells the Government to spend money on CAP that it wouldn't otherwise, and the macroeconomic effects remain the same.
Do more people trust the government than the EU Commission to spend money? Unclear.

MP_SE

Casino_Royale said:

cjo said:

It would be interesting to know what the result would have been had YouGov balanced the survey by asking what people would do if the UK left the EU and the standard of living increased and everyone was £100 better off.

This survey was not YouGov's finest hour.

I suspect they are being funded by Remain and market testing, as Robert suggests downthread.

I thought they have already claimed that each family is £3,000 better off annually. This was based on research which strangely looked at the US economy and had nothing to do with the UK or EU....

rcs1000

SeanT said:

Roger said:

SeanT said:

Roger said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

"Leave must be hitting home."

I heard George Galloway and Gisela Stuart speak for Leave today. I thought Galloway was good and Gisela was hopeless. But the main point is that they were saying completely different things and they're both on the left. To the uninitiated Leave are looking shambolic

But, again - sigh - you have to explain how such a shambolic campaign is managing a DEAD HEAT in the polls.

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/

I'd be interested - sincerely - in your explanation, as a one-time ad professional. Perhaps LEAVE is simply a better product, so even if the sales pitch is rubbish, people will still prefer it? Genuine question.

It's difficult to shift what people believe to be true. It looks like both Leave and Remain have been level pegging for a while. The only ones listening to both arguments at the moment- if anyone- are the undecideds and they're likely to be the last to make up their minds. It's in the interests of both sides to give a clear message. It could well be Leave have a better product in which case make their argument coherent and we can judge

Interesting, ta.

Confirms what I think, LEAVE really needs to coalesce around a clear alternative. Obviously that would be EFTA or EEA.

The pitch would be "This is where we will go, for the next few years, as we work out trade deals, to keep things absolutely stable: into EFTA. Free movement will continue, free trade will continue.

"But from the moment we vote LEAVE all things become possible, we can end EU immigration in total if you, the voter, so decide that, in the next General Election. We can leave the ECHR. We will be out of the hated CAP and CFP. The ECJ will no longer rule over us. And none of this is possible, none of this will happen, if we REMAIN, and if we REMAIN things could get a whole lot WORSE."

That's a better product than anything REMAIN are offering, and cogently presented by plausible people, would win, I think.

If we go to EFTA and say:

"We'd like you all to draft and pass legislation so we can join EFTA while we decide what we want to do" then they'll say "Fuck off".

If we go and say:

"We'd like you to all draft and pass legislation so we can be fully paid up and enthusiastic members of EFTA" then they'd say "Hell, yes".

You can't turn up at someone's door and say, please make room for us, and go to a bunch of hassle, but we're not really that keen on your club, and might just be passing through.

hunchman

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

rcs1000 said:

watford30 said:

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Question: How many registered companies past and present are there out of this address (next to Finchley spiritualist church)? (hint: it is linked to THAT ADDRESS)

http://www.instantstreetview.com/@51.611202,-0.178355,-128.09h,5p,1z

Wow: you've found the address of a company that creates companies.

Here are some of the company creation companies on Finchley Road: Creation-UK Ltd, A1 Companies Ltd, City & Dominion Registrars Ltd.

Anyone know what Henchman's point might be? He's been jabbering on about company formation businesses for days now.

I've bought a few companies from such firms, and have yet to notice anything mysterious about them. Maybe they're all situated on Ley lines.

Hunchman's pal has discovered that a number of dodgy resource companies were formed at this address on Finchley Road. He then discovered that 250,000 other companies were formed at the same address, and that many of them had directors for only a day!

He therefore decided that this address on Finchley Road is the centre of an international conspiracy, rather than coming to the conclusion best warranted by the facts: that he's discovered a company that creates companies.

That's one way to describe 15 years of meticulous research with documents that conclusively prove fraud, theft and money laundering. It wouldn't be my way of describing it!

hunchman:

There have undoubtedly been companies created at that address that have been used for fraudulent purposes, and your friend deserves credit for discovering them.

But there have also been tens of thousands of other companies used for everything under sun, who's sole common factor is that they were created in a company creation factory on Finchley Road.

So why have successive governments done nothing about the fraud, theft and money laundering going on there for 40 years?

rcs1000

Richard_Tyndall said:

EPG said:

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.

Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.

It's fabulous for Leave. It shows that votes can be bought.

Remain have no money to buy votes.

Leave have £18bn in gross contributions to the EU to play with.

I wonder how economists' models would like if that £18bn was pushed into UK residents' pockets. What would be the prospects for domestic growth and jobs?

You need the net contributions.
And there is still a contribution if in the EEA, which every LEAVEr here wants

Even net contribution is misleading because - with the exception of the rebate - the money the EU gives back to us not only comes with strict instructions on what it can be spent on but also very often requires additional matched funding from the UK Government.

So (to use 2014 as an example) if we get £5bn back from the EU out of our contribution of just over £19 billion, that £5 billion will have to be spent as the EU decides and a large part of it will require matched funding from the UK even if it is for projects we do not believe should be priority funded.

If we don't provide match funding then the EU does not give us the money back and people scream about how the Government is failing to let them benefit from EU money. Forgetting it is UK money in the first place and that taking it costs the Tax payer even more.

This is something I think we need to make more of. It's not solely about the 'net' number, it's about having control over how it's spent.

(Is the rebate included in the 'returned' money?)

foxinsoxuk

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

One of the curiosities of all this is that the 2 years when we were net recipients from the EEC/EU (76 and 77) were the same 2 years where anti-EEC feeling was at amongst its highest according to polling.

The UK's receipts don't appear to have moved for a generation. The size of the bill on the other hand....

The 1970s EU debate pre-dates me.

That sounds roughly correct. The big change over the last 20 years is that the newly admitted countries in Eastern and Southern Europe are net benificiaries of EU funds. I see this as money well spent to modernise their agriculture, infrastructure and other aspects of economic and social development. The aim being to cement them into the liberal social democratic capitalism that the rest of Europe enjoys.

Net contributions per capita here:

http://money-go-round.eu/

OldKingCole

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Roger said:

SeanT said:

Roger said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

"Leave must be hitting home."

I heard George Galloway and Gisela Stuart speak for Leave today. I thought Galloway was good and Gisela was hopeless. But the main point is that they were saying completely different things and they're both on the left. To the uninitiated Leave are looking shambolic

But, again - sigh - you have to explain how such a shambolic campaign is managing a DEAD HEAT in the polls.

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/

I'd be interested - sincerely - in your explanation, as a one-time ad professional. Perhaps LEAVE is simply a better product, so even if the sales pitch is rubbish, people will still prefer it? Genuine question.

It's difficult to shift what people believe to be true. It looks like both Leave and Remain have been level pegging for a while. The only ones listening to both arguments at the moment- if anyone- are the undecideds and they're likely to be the last to make up their minds. It's in the interests of both sides to give a clear message. It could well be Leave have a better product in which case make their argument coherent and we can judge

Interesting, ta.

Confirms what I think, LEAVE really needs to coalesce around a clear alternative. Obviously that would be EFTA or EEA.

The pitch would be "This is where we will go, for the next few years, as we work out trade deals, to keep things absolutely stable: into EFTA. Free movement will continue, free trade will continue.

"But from the moment we vote LEAVE all things become possible, we can end EU immigration in total if you, the voter, so decide that, in the next General Election. We can leave the ECHR. We will be out of the hated CAP and CFP. The ECJ will no longer rule over us. And none of this is possible, none of this will happen, if we REMAIN, and if we REMAIN things could get a whole lot WORSE."

That's a better product than anything REMAIN are offering, and cogently presented by plausible people, would win, I think.

Vote Leave have already done this: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal

Are not points two and four incapable being simulataneously implemented?