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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The punters at Betfair think Remain have this in the bag
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The punters at Betfair think Remain have this in the bag
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The UK will: want to remain in a European free trade area, safeguard the City, maintain access to sell financial services, repatriate law and justice powers, have controls on migration, and save contributions.
The EU will: want an enduring and stable political solution amongst the EU, want the UK to continue to contribute money, to continue to sell goods to the UK, not to encourage anyone else to Leave, a good level of free movement access for its citizens to the UK market.
Either way we will continue to play a strong part in Europe. We are a European country after all. Both parties (UK and EU) will want to deepen collaboration in maritime security, scientific collaborations and counter-terrorism. The EU will want something "extra" from us for this deal, and we will need to be prepared to give it to them.
It should be based on demonstrating it is good for us and for them, and us leaving gives them a stronger, more secure Europe.
And we wouldn't trigger Article 50 until the broad principles reflected above had been informally agreed.
Ideally we'd have this on the table now, in which case Leave would win hands-down, but we don't, so we have to vote based upon the parameters of what we know would be on the table.
What price was Donald Trump last year, 8 months ago?
Whoever thought Jeremy Corbyn would become Labour leader 9 months ago? (surely the strangest of them all)
Remain will very probably win in two months (1/4 chance for Leave sounds about right) but a 75% chance does not equate to an 100% chance.
What news would shift this market?
That assumption needs to be shaken to move the market. Or for the DK figure to evaporate.
Or the Republican nomination bettors to get involved.
A migrant crisis probably wouldn't affect us directly and its impact is unlikely to be large.
A major scandal involving the EU might do it, but there's currently no sign of one.
It may be simply measuring a great deal of uncertainty amongst the punters.
Back in the Real World, negotiations don't begin until we trigger Article 50, which in the event of a Leave vote will be early the next morning.
And some of us have bets on Trump :-)
A major scandal involving the EU might do it, but there's currently no sign of one.
Major scandals don't normally give signs they are about to happen......
He was right then. He is right now.
But if people don't know if that really means anything, it is not going to change their expectation, and hence will not change their bets.
We have polls trending to Leave, but close, and a presumption that there will be swing-back to Remain. Nothing has particularly changed that narrative.
Cameron has already said that Article 50 would be triggered immediately after a Leave vote:
I want to spell out this point very carefully. If the British people vote to leave there is only one way to bring that about – and that is to trigger Article 50 of the Treaties and begin the process of exit.
And the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-commons-statement-on-eu-reform-and-referendum-22-february-2016
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6263/merkel_would_force_fair_deal_for_britain_under_brexit
What will change it is consistent Remain leads on the online polls and, even more, consistent Leave leads in the phone polls.
And then I read that tweet from Ladbrokes. Ed odds on favourite. What were the markets thinking? Was the smart money simply drowned out by the stupid?
It wouldn't be the first time he had been economical with the actualite as a negotiating position, this time with the British public, just like telling everyone he was quite happy to leave and go it alone if he didn't get what he wanted from the renegotiations. I am sure in reality a few messages and phone conversations with the US and Brussels at the very least will happen because he wipes out his copy of Article 50.
Formal negotiations immediately with a two year timescale? Not necessarily.
Vote Leave is not campaigning on that basis, and it won't be Cameron's decision to make. If we do vote Leave, the Government, with Michael Gove right at the centre of it, would be obliged to follow it:
"First, there will be informal negotiations. No rational government would immediately begin any legal process to withdraw so there is no issue of an immediate use of Article 50, the EU’s preferred legal route for a member to leave that imposes a basic two-year timetable. The government will explore how the other EU countries and the Commission want to proceed."
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal
Remember: everything Cameron is currently saying and doing is designed to reinforce the uncertainty of Leave, and encourage a vote for Remain, not to accurately reflect what would really happen.
FFS, at least try to keep it within shouting distance of reality.
Which would indeed be the only sane way for Germany to approach Brexit, although I am not sure that Anglo-German relations, even in those circumstances, would need a US chaperone.
He would put a timetable in place, appoint the team responsible for negotiating and so on. The exact timing of Article 50 is only important in so much as it has to happen with a reasonable time to satisfy the Leavers. Or do you think he will just push the button out of spite on day 1?
Why you think that would be spiteful is not clear. If we voted for it, why wouldn't anyone want it?
Leave would be voting to leave the EU in the best and safest way for GB, over a reasonable time frame.
Leave are not voting to dive into Article 50 without a plan in place.
Leicester look like they'll win the league today as well.
They seem convinced they are voting Leave under some set of fantasy rules yet to be decided...
F1: my post-race piece, following a very interesting Chinese Grand Prix, is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/china-post-race-analysis-2016.html
On-topic: I agree with the majority that Remain will win at a canter. That said, the majority thought we'd have a hung Parliament and Miliband as PM...
I know the gov has refused to set out what they would do - that's why there would need to be a timetable put in place. Don't blame me for Cameron's failures here.
"The government acknowledges that vote of the British people and will within the next month put in place the steps required to withdraw from the European Union. We will of course be consulting with diplomatic partners and others to do this in the least disruptive way possible. The day to day negotiations for withdrawing from the EU will be put in the very capable hands of my good friend Michael Gove, who will take all necessary step up to, if necessary invocation of Article 50. Thank you."
If the rules don't favour you, make up new ones.
There is absolutely no reason we have to accept Article 50 as the only way out. That is what the treaty says. But if we leave the treaty, we are not bound by it.
He announced the referendum. He legislated for the referendum. He is campaigning in the referendum. There will be a referendum.
He said if we vote Leave he will invoke article 50.
"But he's a lying bastard, we can't trust him..."
Ummm.
Oh...
So I think it is clear that Cameron can change the timing for article 50 if that is appropriate.
The problem for Leavers is that don't trust anyone, even their own kind! Dodgy people!
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
However, that it was stated as no later than the end of 2017 does not mean it was definitely going to be then - he might have implied it, or others merely inferred it, but it's not anywhere on the list of lies or betrayals he may have made, it's just him using his position for a tactical advantage, as he sees it. That many Leavers have clamored for a vote a lot sooner than 2016, and the 2017 clause was probably intended not to suggest the vote would be late 2017 but to assure skeptics if it wasn't right away he could not hold it off even if he wanted, means I don't think we can complain he called it soon. And indeed it just enables further arguments as to why the deal is bad, so it's not all bad for Leave either.
There are Eliza programs around that talk more sense that Scott&Paste
Oh, wait, it's OK, Gordo had his fingers crossed when he signed it...
Like a precocious talkative child, quite confident it can be rude in public because no one will punch it in the face - that would be illegal!
If we vote
YesLeave, everything we ever wanted will magically be true, and there will no nasty reality to intrude.All of those people we despise will bend to our will, International Law will not apply to us, and there will be much rejoicing.
What is depressing is those folk who knew the separatist myth was a basket case last time, but seem seduced by the same fantasies wearing a different rosette
Dirty underhand Spurs fan trick.
For some reason it seems to have upset a number of posters.
Britain can stand as an independent country many many times easier than Scotland could.
That should have been a blatant penalty to Leicester
trade is voluntary and both sides will wish to trade
It's like a rugby ref giving a penalty for a scrum not being straight - unless the scrum half literally just runs it to the back himself, it's not given.
FACT: There should be (and one must presume there is) a sensible plan and timetable in place to withdraw from the EU following a Leave vote. Not to have one would be a total dereliction of duty. And to exit in the most jarring and damaging way deliberately because 'you asked for it' would be worse than dereliction of duty; it would be treasonable.
FACT: Remain will obviously not reveal this plan as it's not in their interests for the public to be reassured about a Leave result, rather they must be convinced it will be a catastrophe of epic proportions.
Given these two facts, it's an argument over nothing that neither side can win.
Spurs were humiliated by Dortmund, then we beat Dortmund.
That makes us better than The English Champions.