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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why those opposed to the Tories should hope that June 23rd

SystemSystem Posts: 11,018
edited April 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why those opposed to the Tories should hope that June 23rd fails to resolve the blue team’s #EURef schism

A party at war is pretty sight if you are not a supporter. The way this first Monday of the official referendum campaign has gone isn’t doing the Tories any favours and it is going to go on and on.

Read the full story here


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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,382
    True
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Looking at the thread header illustration, Leave should have some fun reprinting the recent photograph of Cameron, Kinnock and Ashdown chortling on the phones.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,382
    The dream scenario for Tory opponents, is a substantial Remain win, and the Tories force Cameron out.

    That will prolong the fun.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2016
    No aggressive abuse from Remain backers of course. Can we at least pretend to be balanced ?

    No, it wont resolve it, any more than it settled it in Scotland. All he has done is brought the divisions out into the open. He was one of the first to start the abuse with "Fruitcakes, Loonies and Closet Racists", who goes around comes around - shame.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    Defence of man who beheaded his wife: he only meant to "slap her around a bit".

    http://news.sky.com/story/1680636/husband-jailed-for-life-for-beheading-wife
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331
    watford30 said:

    Looking at the thread header illustration, Leave should have some fun reprinting the recent photograph of Cameron, Kinnock and Ashdown chortling on the phones.

    How many people nowadays would recognise Ashdown - 10%? Kinnock, maybe 30%? Ozymandias and all that.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    edited April 2016
    It's striking that every leading figure on each side of the debate has negative personal ratings, in some cases, very negative.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,413
    NickPalmer said:

    watford30 said:

    Looking at the thread header illustration, Leave should have some fun reprinting the recent photograph of Cameron, Kinnock and Ashdown chortling on the phones.

    How many people nowadays would recognise Ashdown - 10%? Kinnock, maybe 30%? Ozymandias and all that.
    The people that vote.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    From Mike's article:

    I’m sure that Cameron and his team regard the next eight weeks of party in-fighting is a small price to pay to resolving an issue that has so divided the party since the summer of 1992.

    Precisely so. If Cameron can put this issue to bed (admittedly this might be a big 'if'), it will be a major, major political achievement, both in terms of party politics and the wider political picture. Furthermore, the current battles, and the current economic uncertainty leading up to the referendum, are a price which had to be paid at some time.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    Defence of man who beheaded his wife: he only meant to "slap her around a bit".

    http://news.sky.com/story/1680636/husband-jailed-for-life-for-beheading-wife

    And?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From Mike's article:

    I’m sure that Cameron and his team regard the next eight weeks of party in-fighting is a small price to pay to resolving an issue that has so divided the party since the summer of 1992.

    Precisely so. If Cameron can put this issue to bed (admittedly this might be a big 'if'), it will be a major, major political achievement, both in terms of party politics and the wider political picture. Furthermore, the current battles, and the current economic uncertainty leading up to the referendum, are a price which had to be paid at some time.

    It will never end (unless people in this country have a Damascene conversion in favour of political union).
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From Mike's article:

    I’m sure that Cameron and his team regard the next eight weeks of party in-fighting is a small price to pay to resolving an issue that has so divided the party since the summer of 1992.

    Precisely so. If Cameron can put this issue to bed (admittedly this might be a big 'if'), it will be a major, major political achievement, both in terms of party politics and the wider political picture. Furthermore, the current battles, and the current economic uncertainty leading up to the referendum, are a price which had to be paid at some time.

    hmmm

    I admire your optimism. I;m afraid the campaign is starting to acquire an element of rancour to it that didn't need to be there. I suspect Cameron will heal very little and will be glad when he's out of politics.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBC_Joe_Lynam: Ian Botham on Brexit: "England is an island and we should be proud"

    That'll go down well in Scotland, Wales and NI
    #bbcdp

    @Cat_Headley: It would be wrong to say that this sums up all #Brexitters,but it certainly sums up a certain type of Brexitter... https://t.co/Djd7padrti
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    No surprise. It is a warning shot at Osborne using his awful ratings.
    Last time the people running no2AV went after Clegg.

    https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=election+leaflets+AV+campaign&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjoptvfrpjMAhWC7iYKHeLNARAQsAQITw&biw=1696&bih=799&dpr=1.13#imgrc=dmWxy0XhuDs7dM:
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Scott_P said:

    @BBC_Joe_Lynam: Ian Botham on Brexit: "England is an island and we should be proud"

    That'll go down well in Scotland, Wales and NI
    #bbcdp

    @Cat_Headley: It would be wrong to say that this sums up all #Brexitters,but it certainly sums up a certain type of Brexitter... https://t.co/Djd7padrti

    who the F is Cat Headley ? Your mum ?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From Mike's article:

    I’m sure that Cameron and his team regard the next eight weeks of party in-fighting is a small price to pay to resolving an issue that has so divided the party since the summer of 1992.

    Precisely so. If Cameron can put this issue to bed (admittedly this might be a big 'if'), it will be a major, major political achievement, both in terms of party politics and the wider political picture. Furthermore, the current battles, and the current economic uncertainty leading up to the referendum, are a price which had to be paid at some time.

    It will never end (unless people in this country have a Damascene conversion in favour of political union).
    It might, however, become a background issue, like abortion or gay marriage or capital punishment - issues where it is accepted that there are some people in the party who hold strong views which are at odds with the party leadership, but which are not divisive because everyone accepts that the matter is effectively settled.
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    edited April 2016
    "Anyone who comes out with anything that’s vaguely supportive of REMAIN has to reckon on coming under a pile of aggressive abuse from LEAVE backers. Those wanting out are more than ready to play the ball as well as the man. "

    That's just as true the other way round. For example when Beefy came out for Brexit the other day he had to endure slurry from Remainers about his adulterous past and insinuations that he's not very bright. Strangely there was no mention of his Ashes heroics or indeed his numerous walks for charity etc. Both sides are as bad as each other on that score.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,150
    FPT
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Layne said:

    The Treasury report claims the EEA has zero beneficial impact on services!

    That sounds correct. I wouldn't expect much if any damage or benefit on services from the EEA option compared with the EU.
    The £4300 figure (6.2% reduction on GDP) assumes "negotiated bilateral agreement[s]". But under EEA the figure becomes £2600 per household (3.8% reduction in GDP). Table A16, p 186
    But very particular assumptions lie behind these "Final modelling results". I would question:
    (1) the idea that leaving is like a negative exogenous shock to the level of technology "which is maintained as a permanent level shift until the end of the simulation. This shock temporarily reduces the growth rate of output of the UK economy." The shock could well positive – shaking off the numerous impediments, regulations, and misdirections we have from the EU, not to mention the membership tax.
    (2) the idea that leaving necessarily implies "reduced openness to trade".



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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Alanbrooke said:

    Hmmm

    I admire your optimism. I;m afraid the campaign is starting to acquire an element of rancour to it that didn't need to be there. I suspect Cameron will heal very little and will be glad when he's out of politics.

    That's a slightly different point. To reunite after a Remain result, the Conservative Party may well need a different leader. But it is going to get one.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Alanbrooke said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBC_Joe_Lynam: Ian Botham on Brexit: "England is an island and we should be proud"
    That'll go down well in Scotland, Wales and NI
    #bbcdp
    @Cat_Headley: It would be wrong to say that this sums up all #Brexitters,but it certainly sums up a certain type of Brexitter... https://t.co/Djd7padrti

    who the F is Cat Headley ? Your mum ?
    Leftie mate of Corbyn's. A respected source for any hard left person.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,324
    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From Mike's article:

    I’m sure that Cameron and his team regard the next eight weeks of party in-fighting is a small price to pay to resolving an issue that has so divided the party since the summer of 1992.

    Precisely so. If Cameron can put this issue to bed (admittedly this might be a big 'if'), it will be a major, major political achievement, both in terms of party politics and the wider political picture. Furthermore, the current battles, and the current economic uncertainty leading up to the referendum, are a price which had to be paid at some time.

    It will never end (unless people in this country have a Damascene conversion in favour of political union).
    Exactly.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    The GRASSROOTS UKIP base has no issues about slagging off the REMAIN Conservatives.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From Mike's article:

    I’m sure that Cameron and his team regard the next eight weeks of party in-fighting is a small price to pay to resolving an issue that has so divided the party since the summer of 1992.

    Precisely so. If Cameron can put this issue to bed (admittedly this might be a big 'if'), it will be a major, major political achievement, both in terms of party politics and the wider political picture. Furthermore, the current battles, and the current economic uncertainty leading up to the referendum, are a price which had to be paid at some time.

    It will never end (unless people in this country have a Damascene conversion in favour of political union).
    It might, however, become a background issue, like abortion or gay marriage or capital punishment - issues where it is accepted that there are some people in the party who hold strong views which are at odds with the party leadership, but which are not divisive because everyone accepts that the matter is effectively settled.
    But they are there to represent the voters, so it only works if the voters consider it settled, or atleast if enough of them do that Cameron's successor isn't in danger of losing a third of his vote to the kippers or their successors.

    It also only works if the voluntary party accept it, which is the least likely of the lot, otherwise he gets the double whammy of losing lots of activists and still getting lots of eurosceptic MPs selected by his constituency parties.

    So long as 72% of the country want less immigration, and that will probably get worse as the migrant number pick up after the referendum, the question hasn't gone away. If there is any islamic terror in London, it will be back in spades.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    A thought on Vote LEAVE.
    Its Chief Executive Matthew Elliott was turned down for a SPAD job in Govt when Cameron and Osborne gave in to the Lib Dems who opposed his appointment. The LDs were very upset with Elliott over the fact that his No2AV referendum campaign slaughtered their Yes campaign.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From Mike's article:

    I’m sure that Cameron and his team regard the next eight weeks of party in-fighting is a small price to pay to resolving an issue that has so divided the party since the summer of 1992.

    Precisely so. If Cameron can put this issue to bed (admittedly this might be a big 'if'), it will be a major, major political achievement, both in terms of party politics and the wider political picture. Furthermore, the current battles, and the current economic uncertainty leading up to the referendum, are a price which had to be paid at some time.

    It will never end (unless people in this country have a Damascene conversion in favour of political union).
    It might, however, become a background issue, like abortion or gay marriage or capital punishment - issues where it is accepted that there are some people in the party who hold strong views which are at odds with the party leadership, but which are not divisive because everyone accepts that the matter is effectively settled.
    That seems unlikely, because there will always be flashpoints, in the event of a Remain vote. The only way that the EU will cease to be a live political issue is if there's a settled view in favour of complete integration.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Not ideal for a party that needs 95%+ of its MPs support to pass anything in the House of Commons. The unity reshuffle is going to have to be major I feel.
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited April 2016
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Hmmm

    I admire your optimism. I;m afraid the campaign is starting to acquire an element of rancour to it that didn't need to be there. I suspect Cameron will heal very little and will be glad when he's out of politics.

    That's a slightly different point. To reunite after a Remain result, the Conservative Party may well need a different leader. But it is going to get one.
    And promply too, I should think. Cameron has morphed into a hopelessly divisive figure in a very short space of time. Never again glad confident morn, I'm afraid.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Sean_F said:

    That seems unlikely, because there will always be flashpoints, in the event of a Remain vote. The only way that the EU will cease to be a live political issue is if there's a settled view in favour of complete integration.

    What flashpoints do you foresee?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,324
    I've just done a quick and dirty spreadsheet calculation on the Treasury's assessment.

    If we assume Brexit GDP growth at 2.05%, and Bremain growth at 2.5%, then you get to a GDP that's 45% bigger in nominal terms by 2030 for Bremain, and 36% bigger for Brexit ($4.126tn v. $3.862tn) This gives a net difference between the two in annual GDP of -6.4% in 2030.

    So assuming we don't strike any new trade deals, change our trade patterns or deregulate to become globally competitive, the Treasury is saying that the price of Brexit, control of our laws, borders and policies is that the economy will only be 36% bigger rather than 45% bigger in 2030.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Indigo said:

    So long as 72% of the country want less immigration, and that will probably get worse as the migrant number pick up after the referendum, the question hasn't gone away. If there is any islamic terror in London, it will be back in spades.

    Well quite, hence my view that the EEA option is politically impossible in the event of a Leave result.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Will we see a leaflet on immigration broken promises and remaining in the EU?

    If Mrs May takes a leading role we could see the "100,000" promise butchered along with the new "3million more" which Osborne has signed up to?

    https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=election+leaflets+AV+campaign&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjoptvfrpjMAhWC7iYKHeLNARAQsAQITw&biw=1696&bih=799&dpr=1.13#imgrc=Xuz10dM4_tSH0M:
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    matt said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    Defence of man who beheaded his wife: he only meant to "slap her around a bit".

    http://news.sky.com/story/1680636/husband-jailed-for-life-for-beheading-wife

    And?
    And?
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Casino_Royale said:

    I've just done a quick and dirty spreadsheet calculation on the Treasury's assessment.

    If we assume Brexit GDP growth at 2.05%, and Bremain growth at 2.5%, then you get to a GDP that's 45% bigger in nominal terms by 2030 for Bremain, and 36% bigger for Brexit ($4.126tn v. $3.862tn) This gives a net difference between the two in annual GDP of -6.4% in 2030.

    So assuming we don't strike any new trade deals, change our trade patterns or deregulate to become globally competitive, the Treasury is saying that the price of Brexit, control of our laws, borders and policies is that the economy will only be 36% bigger rather than 45% bigger in 2030.

    Thanks. With 40% of the trade tied to a stagnating EU, it would be interesting if any institute etc models it based on the run rate of the EU in recent years. Likely to see us well below 20% of trade with EU by 2030. As a guesstimate!
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Casino_Royale said:

    I've just done a quick and dirty spreadsheet calculation on the Treasury's assessment.

    If we assume Brexit GDP growth at 2.05%, and Bremain growth at 2.5%, then you get to a GDP that's 45% bigger in nominal terms by 2030 for Bremain, and 36% bigger for Brexit ($4.126tn v. $3.862tn) This gives a net difference between the two in annual GDP of -6.4% in 2030.

    So assuming we don't strike any new trade deals, change our trade patterns or deregulate to become globally competitive, the Treasury is saying that the price of Brexit, control of our laws, borders and policies is that the economy will only be 36% bigger rather than 45% bigger in 2030.

    That tallies with Fraser Nelson's assessment - though he makes it 31% v 37%. As he says, the real slight of hand is in pretending that that equates to £4,300 less in terms of household income.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/the-deceptions-behind-george-osbornes-brexit-report/
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2016
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Indigo said:

    So long as 72% of the country want less immigration, and that will probably get worse as the migrant number pick up after the referendum, the question hasn't gone away. If there is any islamic terror in London, it will be back in spades.

    Well quite, hence my view that the EEA option is politically impossible in the event of a Leave result.
    I have said so a number of times. I personally favour EFTA, but I can't see it being a politically tenable position. I can't see Remain being a politically tenable position for more than a few years either. Except if there is 4m+ nett migration in 2020, then the Conservative government is toast and we will be in the EU for the next 5 years under Labour.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Norman Tebbit — "The Government is doing everything in its power to rig the EU Referendum"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/18/the-government-is-doing-everything-in-its-power-to-rig-the-eu-re/
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    That seems unlikely, because there will always be flashpoints, in the event of a Remain vote. The only way that the EU will cease to be a live political issue is if there's a settled view in favour of complete integration.

    What flashpoints do you foresee?
    In my view, the most likely are probably:-

    1. The EZ voting as a bloc, in ways that are detrimental to non EZ members. I could see the UK being told at that stage that if we want to sit at the top table, we need to be part of the EZ, or else just suck it up.

    2. Immigration. It may be that immigration from the rest of the EU to the UK reaches levels that become intolerable; or that countries that are bearing the brunt of immigration from MENA attempt to put pressure on those that haven't, in order to share the burden.

    3. Criminal justice. I think that the drive to try and harmonise criminal justice across the EU will be ongoing.

    4. The EU budget. In general, we favour reducing it. Plenty of EU countries favour increasing it.

    Now, even if we have absolute and binding guarantees and vetoes, it will still be us vs the EU.

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    edited April 2016
    I am amazed that whoever designed the leave.eu poster had no thought it would have on many undecided voters, their families and especially their children. Fierce debate and poster campaigns are all part of the campaign but this particular poster is just plain distasteful
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,978
    Mr. NorthWales, indeed, foul language on something for public consumption is unwise.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,925
    We'll get eight weeks of the Tories shouting at each other. Then Dave either loses and stands down and the shouting starts again over his successor and the Brexit negotiations, or Remain wins and he stays and the Leavers shout Betrayal at every opportunity. With a wafer thin majority this is not going away until 2020 at the earliest. Meanwhile most people in the country will look on bemused, at best, or increasingly furious at worst.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    edited April 2016
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, indeed, foul language on something for public consumption is unwise.

    Is this the group that includes Farage - if he has any sense he will bin it and come up with something clever and appealing
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Isabel Hardman on why the shift within Govt
    "But warning people about the consequences for national security hasn’t proved to be strong enough a deterrent yet. So move on to the economy they must. The challenge for Osborne and his colleagues today is to stop the economic argument from becoming as bogged down as they feared it would."
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/how-ministers-had-to-change-tack-in-the-eu-referendum-campaign/
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    edited April 2016
    Tissue_Price said:

    That tallies with Fraser Nelson's assessment - though he makes it 31% v 37%. As he says, the real slight of hand is in pretending that that equates to £4,300 less in terms of household income.

    So if you take the Treasury figures at face value — don't they are worthless — it is fairer to say do you want to be £22k better off and OUT, or £26k better off and IN. Put like that I suspect you would get a very different response from saying "you'll be £4300 worse off".
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    SouthamObserver said:

    We'll get eight weeks of the Tories shouting at each other. Then Dave either loses and stands down and the shouting starts again over his successor and the Brexit negotiations, or Remain wins and he stays and the Leavers shout Betrayal at every opportunity. With a wafer thin majority this is not going away until 2020 at the earliest. Meanwhile most people in the country will look on bemused, at best, or increasingly furious at worst.

    If the 'furious' had selected a credible leader not the tit in a beard they would have been able to do something about it.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    SouthamObserver said:

    We'll get eight weeks of the Tories shouting at each other. Then Dave either loses and stands down and the shouting starts again over his successor and the Brexit negotiations, or Remain wins and he stays and the Leavers shout Betrayal at every opportunity. With a wafer thin majority this is not going away until 2020 at the earliest. Meanwhile most people in the country will look on bemused, at best, or increasingly furious at worst.

    As a conservative member I am very annoyed with both sides as the Country having a conservative government is far more important to me than remaining in or leaving the EU
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am amazed that whoever designed the leave.eu poster had no thought it would have on many undecided voters, their families and especially their children. Fierce debate and poster campaigns are all part of the campaign but this particular poster is just plain distasteful

    I think it demonstrates a level of immaturity that shows the Electoral Commission made exactly the right decision.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBC_Joe_Lynam: Ian Botham on Brexit: "England is an island and we should be proud"
    That'll go down well in Scotland, Wales and NI
    #bbcdp
    @Cat_Headley: It would be wrong to say that this sums up all #Brexitters,but it certainly sums up a certain type of Brexitter... https://t.co/Djd7padrti

    who the F is Cat Headley ? Your mum ?
    Leftie mate of Corbyn's. A respected source for any hard left person.
    Never heard of her tbh. Googling, I see she's a prospective candidate for the Scottish Parliament.

    That said, her comment seems reasonably nuanced and fair enough.
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,996
    I'm not surprised the campaign is becoming increasingly personal within the Con ranks. It feels like for many of the prominent personalities it is becoming a matter of personal political survival. While the cabinet in a few years time will probably consist of a mix of leavers and remainers, nothing says it has to be the current leavers and remainers.

    I have to say it looks quite good for my MP Theresa who is keeping her head down and could come out of this looking good while everyone else is covered in mud.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    George must be pleased with Leave.EU, they've taken at least 20 years off him in their latest poster:

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/722046885842825216
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Now, even if we have absolute and binding guarantees and vetoes, it will still be us vs the EU.

    5. The Eurozone taking a grudging Remain on the basis of financial concerns and government browbeating as the signal for full speed ahead "more Europe" would be another. Lots of new integration wheezes that appear to the voters to be giving more power to Brussels, especially if the government appears over-keen to help make it happen. Attempts to centrally dictate the number of migrants going to each country would be the ultimate kiss of death.

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,871
    FPT
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    » show previous quotes
    I sent you a vanilla message a few hours ago on this.

    Be nice for all to know if it is utter tosh or which if any bits have any reality , I don't think a vanilla message to one person cuts the mustard.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,925
    Indigo said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    We'll get eight weeks of the Tories shouting at each other. Then Dave either loses and stands down and the shouting starts again over his successor and the Brexit negotiations, or Remain wins and he stays and the Leavers shout Betrayal at every opportunity. With a wafer thin majority this is not going away until 2020 at the earliest. Meanwhile most people in the country will look on bemused, at best, or increasingly furious at worst.

    If the 'furious' had selected a credible leader not the tit in a beard they would have been able to do something about it.

    I agree, but the furious will go beyond actual and potential Labour voters. Europe is not a big issue for most voters. Rows about it can be tolerated if things are relatively OK. They will spark fury if times turn tougher.

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,324
    geoffw said:

    FPT

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Layne said:

    The Treasury report claims the EEA has zero beneficial impact on services!

    That sounds correct. I wouldn't expect much if any damage or benefit on services from the EEA option compared with the EU.
    The £4300 figure (6.2% reduction on GDP) assumes "negotiated bilateral agreement[s]". But under EEA the figure becomes £2600 per household (3.8% reduction in GDP). Table A16, p 186
    But very particular assumptions lie behind these "Final modelling results". I would question:
    (1) the idea that leaving is like a negative exogenous shock to the level of technology "which is maintained as a permanent level shift until the end of the simulation. This shock temporarily reduces the growth rate of output of the UK economy." The shock could well positive – shaking off the numerous impediments, regulations, and misdirections we have from the EU, not to mention the membership tax.
    (2) the idea that leaving necessarily implies "reduced openness to trade".

    I haven't had time to go through the model assumptions yet, I suspect they are buried.

    But whilst it might be credible to say the UK economy would take a short term hit after Brexit whilst a deal was sorted, to suggest growth would be forever lower till the ends of time is pushing it.

    Outside the EU our decisions and priorities would be different, and the effective on development of new technology and entrepreneurship could be extremely dynamic.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    Indigo said:

    Sean_F said:

    Now, even if we have absolute and binding guarantees and vetoes, it will still be us vs the EU.

    5. The Eurozone taking a grudging Remain on the basis of financial concerns and government browbeating as the signal for full speed ahead "more Europe" would be another. Lots of new integration wheezes that appear to the voters to be giving more power to Brussels, especially if the government appears over-keen to help make it happen. Attempts to centrally dictate the number of migrants going to each country would be the ultimate kiss of death.

    It will remain the case that we consider a bug of the system ("more Europe") is considered a feature on most of the Continent.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    Pulpstar said:

    George must be pleased with Leave.EU, they've taken at least 20 years off him in their latest poster:

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/722046885842825216

    Is it me but doesn't this just highlight the Treasury Report and provide more publicity for it.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,324
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From Mike's article:

    I’m sure that Cameron and his team regard the next eight weeks of party in-fighting is a small price to pay to resolving an issue that has so divided the party since the summer of 1992.

    Precisely so. If Cameron can put this issue to bed (admittedly this might be a big 'if'), it will be a major, major political achievement, both in terms of party politics and the wider political picture. Furthermore, the current battles, and the current economic uncertainty leading up to the referendum, are a price which had to be paid at some time.

    It will never end (unless people in this country have a Damascene conversion in favour of political union).
    It might, however, become a background issue, like abortion or gay marriage or capital punishment - issues where it is accepted that there are some people in the party who hold strong views which are at odds with the party leadership, but which are not divisive because everyone accepts that the matter is effectively settled.
    Interesting. So you think the potential reaffirmation of our EU membership will turn out to leave those opposed on the wrong side of history?

    It's a view, I suppose.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2016
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    I have to say it looks quite good for my MP Theresa who is keeping her head down and could come out of this looking good while everyone else is covered in mud.

    Theresa "The Nasty Party" May ? The only good thing I have to say about the EU is it has managed to nobble some of her more moronic surveillance state idiocy.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Pulpstar said:

    George must be pleased with Leave.EU, they've taken at least 20 years off him in their latest poster:

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/722046885842825216

    Is it me but doesn't this just highlight the Treasury Report and provide more publicity for it.
    Leave.EU's role is now just to keep the diehards motivated, with some spillover into persuading the "they're all the same" cynics to vote against the Establishment.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, indeed, foul language on something for public consumption is unwise.

    Is this the group that includes Farage - if he has any sense he will bin it and come up with something clever and appealing
    GRASSROOTS' poster is talking the language of the streets to counter the youth vote going to REMAIN.
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    tim80tim80 Posts: 99
    Betfair moved to 2.76/2.78 for Leave.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2016
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Pulpstar said:

    George must be pleased with Leave.EU, they've taken at least 20 years off him in their latest poster:

    Is it me but doesn't this just highlight the Treasury Report and provide more publicity for it.

    I suspect we are not the target demographic ;) This is a privileged Tories trying to collude with their euro-elite mates dog whistle to the WWC.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From Mike's article:

    I’m sure that Cameron and his team regard the next eight weeks of party in-fighting is a small price to pay to resolving an issue that has so divided the party since the summer of 1992.

    Precisely so. If Cameron can put this issue to bed (admittedly this might be a big 'if'), it will be a major, major political achievement, both in terms of party politics and the wider political picture. Furthermore, the current battles, and the current economic uncertainty leading up to the referendum, are a price which had to be paid at some time.

    It will never end (unless people in this country have a Damascene conversion in favour of political union).
    It might, however, become a background issue, like abortion or gay marriage or capital punishment - issues where it is accepted that there are some people in the party who hold strong views which are at odds with the party leadership, but which are not divisive because everyone accepts that the matter is effectively settled.
    Interesting. So you think the potential reaffirmation of our EU membership will turn out to leave those opposed on the wrong side of history?

    It's a view, I suppose.
    Depends how close the result is, I think. If it's a reasonably clear-cut Remain result, then, yes. But it's important to note that it's not an affirmation of ever-closer union (which I think is dead anyway, TBH).
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From Mike's article:

    I’m sure that Cameron and his team regard the next eight weeks of party in-fighting is a small price to pay to resolving an issue that has so divided the party since the summer of 1992.

    Precisely so. If Cameron can put this issue to bed (admittedly this might be a big 'if'), it will be a major, major political achievement, both in terms of party politics and the wider political picture. Furthermore, the current battles, and the current economic uncertainty leading up to the referendum, are a price which had to be paid at some time.

    It will never end (unless people in this country have a Damascene conversion in favour of political union).
    It might, however, become a background issue, like abortion or gay marriage or capital punishment - issues where it is accepted that there are some people in the party who hold strong views which are at odds with the party leadership, but which are not divisive because everyone accepts that the matter is effectively settled.
    Interesting. So you think the potential reaffirmation of our EU membership will turn out to leave those opposed on the wrong side of history?

    It's a view, I suppose.
    That's why I think it would need a huge shift in British attitudes towards the EU for that to happen. Future generations would have to look gratefully on David Cameron as the man who took the UK into the heart of Europe, and finished euroscepticism for good.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,324
    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    tim80 said:

    Betfair moved to 2.76/2.78 for Leave.

    Is that good or bad for leave
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From Mike's article:

    I’m sure that Cameron and his team regard the next eight weeks of party in-fighting is a small price to pay to resolving an issue that has so divided the party since the summer of 1992.

    Precisely so. If Cameron can put this issue to bed (admittedly this might be a big 'if'), it will be a major, major political achievement, both in terms of party politics and the wider political picture. Furthermore, the current battles, and the current economic uncertainty leading up to the referendum, are a price which had to be paid at some time.

    It will never end (unless people in this country have a Damascene conversion in favour of political union).
    It might, however, become a background issue, like abortion or gay marriage or capital punishment - issues where it is accepted that there are some people in the party who hold strong views which are at odds with the party leadership, but which are not divisive because everyone accepts that the matter is effectively settled.
    Interesting. So you think the potential reaffirmation of our EU membership will turn out to leave those opposed on the wrong side of history?

    It's a view, I suppose.
    Depends how close the result is, I think. If it's a reasonably clear-cut Remain result, then, yes. But it's important to note that it's not an affirmation of ever-closer union (which I think is dead anyway, TBH).
    There has to be the suspicion especially on a firmish Remain vote that Brussels will see it in exactly that way. It seem likely that absent a political campaign, the natural state of the voters would be mildly Leave, the fact that Project Fear and other browbeating has converted enough to grudging remainers to swing the referendum shouldn't be taken by the government or the EU as the slightest enthusiasm for "more Europe".
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    Casino_Royale said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I think you should attend, and then speak to him as Ian Paisley did towards the Pope.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Casino_Royale said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    Mandelson is a class act by any standards, whether you agree with him or not. You should go, but tell them you are a firm Leaver and that you don't expect to be persuaded!
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    David_Evershed said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, indeed, foul language on something for public consumption is unwise.

    Is this the group that includes Farage - if he has any sense he will bin it and come up with something clever and appealing
    GRASSROOTS' poster is talking the language of the streets to counter the youth vote going to REMAIN.
    The problem is that it will be seen by many more than 'language of the streets' and I am certain it will upset a lot of people who are to be persuaded by the leave campaign. Counter productive in my opinion
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,978
    Mr. Royale, be ill. Or have the wife book a holiday you can't get out of.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Casino_Royale said:

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    Book the ticket, get the "flu" ;)

  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited April 2016
    Casino_Royale said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    Go along, bite your tongue and report back on the musings of Mandelson. If anyone asks, you're undecided. Seems to work for the many of the staunch Remainers here.

    Or go all 'Death and Glory', have a few drinks and indulge in heckling and bread roll throwing. Before a job search the next day, unless you can successfully claim to have been on medication that reacted badly with the 3 or so bottles of Red infuriator that you downed.

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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    » show previous quotes
    I sent you a vanilla message a few hours ago on this.

    Be nice for all to know if it is utter tosh or which if any bits have any reality , I don't think a vanilla message to one person cuts the mustard.

    Well OGH was working for Betfair during the GE, allegedly
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    In the event of Leave there'll be calls from Remainers to join the EU. Now that would be fascinating, seeing them attempt to cobble together a positive, cohesive argument.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,382
    Sean_F said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I think you should attend, and then speak to him as Ian Paisley did towards the Pope.
    You want Casino Royale to get sacked?

    CR - You're a civil chap, go and enjoy the hospitality
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    So George has had to press the nuclear button on the economy. As a side issue, it means he loses huge credibility on his wider management of the economy if he is seen to shamelessly rely on the most manipulated outcome to get a result that isn't a whole heap different whether we Remain or Leave.

    But what if this does't shift the polls? What else has Project Fear now got left in its missile silos?

    I'm thinking that maybe Osborne has gone too far, too soon.....
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,324
    Sean_F said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I think you should attend, and then speak to him as Ian Paisley did towards the Pope.
    Lol!!!
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    Casino_Royale said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    Difficult but reminds me as a Man Utd supporter when I somehow arrived in the Liverpool end to just enjoy the match but it was awkward when Utd scored and I jumped high out of my seat with a very loud 'YES'. I did survive mind you
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Indigo said:

    There has to be the suspicion especially on a firmish Remain vote that Brussels will see it in exactly that way. It seem likely that absent a political campaign, the natural state of the voters would be mildly Leave, the fact that Project Fear and other browbeating has converted enough to grudging remainers to swing the referendum shouldn't be taken by the government or the EU as the slightest enthusiasm for "more Europe".

    I really don't think that anyone still believes that there is any enthusiasm in the UK for 'more Europe'. For that matter, there's not much enthusiasm in some other countries either; if anything, we seem to be seeing a loosening of EU ties. No doubt the Eurocrats and Euro-enthusiasts will dream on and keep producing position papers, but things have moved on.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Casino_Royale said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I'd go, find out what pearls of wisdom Mandelson gives out for his 'normal speaking fee'. Perhaps wonder how much your firm has spent on the jolly ;)
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,413
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am amazed that whoever designed the leave.eu poster had no thought it would have on many undecided voters, their families and especially their children. Fierce debate and poster campaigns are all part of the campaign but this particular poster is just plain distasteful

    I think it demonstrates a level of immaturity that shows the Electoral Commission made exactly the right decision.
    I tend to agree. Not in favour of coarse language being used, though it will surprise no-one to learn I concur with the sentiments.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    blackburn63 said:

    In the event of Leave there'll be calls from Remainers to join the EU. Now that would be fascinating, seeing them attempt to cobble together a positive, cohesive argument.

    It is a fair point that hadn't occurred to me. With the left generally being pro remain and the HOC definitely could we really end up with a Neverendum, surely not
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,283
    edited April 2016
    Casino_Royale said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I think that if the rest of your firm are normal, sensible human beings with scant interest in or, more important, knowledge of the minutiae or nuances of Leave vs Remain then they will very much appreciate your input as a Leaver as, despite the fact that you have it completely wrong*, you have a coherent argument and people seem to be clamouring for information and guidance.

    * :wink:
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,413
    MarqueeMark said:

    So George has had to press the nuclear button on the economy. As a side issue, it means he loses huge credibility on his wider management of the economy if he is seen to shamelessly rely on the most manipulated outcome to get a result that isn't a whole heap different whether we Remain or Leave.

    But what if this does't shift the polls? What else has Project Fear now got left in its missile silos?

    I'm thinking that maybe Osborne has gone too far, too soon.....

    I think they can get a lot more personal on accusations of racism, biggotry and general right wingery than they have done as yet. I expect to see a lot more twitter dredging as the campaign hots up.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Casino_Royale said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    Attend. Ask a question on the risk of remaining in the EU if the Eurozone countries proceed to integrate further leaving us on the sideline isolated.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,413
    watford30 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    Go along, bite your tongue and report back on the musings of Mandelson. If anyone asks, you're undecided. Seems to work for the many of the staunch Remainers here.

    Or go all 'Death and Glory', have a few drinks and indulge in heckling and bread roll throwing. Before a job search the next day, unless you can successfully claim to have been on medication that reacted badly with the 3 or so bottles of Red infuriator that you downed.

    I'm surprised at the venue to be honest, won't Mandelson hiss at the alter and fly away as a bat or something.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,937
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    From Mike's article:

    I’m sure that Cameron and his team regard the next eight weeks of party in-fighting is a small price to pay to resolving an issue that has so divided the party since the summer of 1992.

    Precisely so. If Cameron can put this issue to bed (admittedly this might be a big 'if'), it will be a major, major political achievement, both in terms of party politics and the wider political picture. Furthermore, the current battles, and the current economic uncertainty leading up to the referendum, are a price which had to be paid at some time.

    It will never end (unless people in this country have a Damascene conversion in favour of political union).
    It might, however, become a background issue, like abortion or gay marriage or capital punishment - issues where it is accepted that there are some people in the party who hold strong views which are at odds with the party leadership, but which are not divisive because everyone accepts that the matter is effectively settled.
    Interesting. So you think the potential reaffirmation of our EU membership will turn out to leave those opposed on the wrong side of history?

    It's a view, I suppose.
    Depends how close the result is, I think. If it's a reasonably clear-cut Remain result, then, yes. But it's important to note that it's not an affirmation of ever-closer union (which I think is dead anyway, TBH).
    I honestly believe the EU sees it very differently to you. Any sort of Yes vote will be taken as a very clear sign of agreement with the ongoing EU project and we will start to see more and more decisions taken which would previously have been considered impossible whilst wanting to keep the UK on board.

    It at take a year or so but you will have to revisit some of your assumptions and views fairly quickly in the case of a Yes vote. Not least because it will be pretty fundamental for the survival of the Eurozone that more EU control is exercised over the City of London.
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    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    I shall be voting for Theresa May if she puts herself forward for Leader of the Conservative Party. I'm sure she is fully aware that the media will be gunning for her, for the simple reason that she will bore them to death. I doubt they will be able to dig up any dirt on her, although they will try.
    Some of her colleagues are making complete fools of themselves re their comments about the EU referendum and their comments will be hung round their necks forever.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Mandelson was sacked twice for dishonesty, he is everything I despise about the political elite.

    Remain couldn't have a better person speaking for them.
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    JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    Afternoon all.

    Osborne's figures today are exactly the kind of half-truths I highlight in my most recent personal blog post. Indeed it has taken me plenty of time and much thinking but I have declared for 'Vote Leave' today. I elaborate my thinking here: www.jamesmalcolm.com/voteleave - hope the post makes sense, even if you don't share my analysis!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,978
    Just researching Popper (for reasons I won't bore you with), and came across this nice bit, which is applicable to modern society:
    "Although Popper was an advocate of toleration, he said that intolerance should not be tolerated, for if tolerance allowed intolerance to succeed completely, tolerance would be threatened. In The Open Society and Its Enemies, he argued..."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Popper
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,283
    JamesM said:

    Afternoon all.

    Osborne's figures today are exactly the kind of half-truths I highlight in my most recent personal blog post. Indeed it has taken me plenty of time and much thinking but I have declared for 'Vote Leave' today. I elaborate my thinking here: www.jamesmalcolm.com/voteleave - hope the post makes sense, even if you don't share my analysis!

    Very much looking forward to reading it; thanks for the link. Enjoyed also this eat, shoots and leaves part of your biog...

    I was a Data Analyst at the Centre for Studies in Terrorism and Political Violence in St Andrews, Scotland (2004-05)
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am amazed that whoever designed the leave.eu poster had no thought it would have on many undecided voters, their families and especially their children. Fierce debate and poster campaigns are all part of the campaign but this particular poster is just plain distasteful

    You remind me of those old-fashioned football commentators, who used to say 'what a dreadful example to all those young people watching' when anyone was sent off.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,937
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    We'll get eight weeks of the Tories shouting at each other. Then Dave either loses and stands down and the shouting starts again over his successor and the Brexit negotiations, or Remain wins and he stays and the Leavers shout Betrayal at every opportunity. With a wafer thin majority this is not going away until 2020 at the earliest. Meanwhile most people in the country will look on bemused, at best, or increasingly furious at worst.

    As a conservative member I am very annoyed with both sides as the Country having a conservative government is far more important to me than remaining in or leaving the EU
    I know you don't see it this way but for me as socially liberal former Tory activist that sentence does very much strike me as putting party before country

    One thing you have to consider us that no matter how much you might wish it we will have another Labour Government in the future and they could do far less damage to us outside the EU than still in it.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MarqueeMark said:

    But what if this does't shift the polls? What else has Project Fear now got left in its missile silos?

    Relax

    Project Fear, better known as the Worldwide Global Conspiracy (c John Redwood) has plenty more missiles in their silos...

    PS, can you lend me some tinfoil? Thanks.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    watford30 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    Go along, bite your tongue and report back on the musings of Mandelson. If anyone asks, you're undecided. Seems to work for the many of the staunch Remainers here.

    Or go all 'Death and Glory', have a few drinks and indulge in heckling and bread roll throwing. Before a job search the next day, unless you can successfully claim to have been on medication that reacted badly with the 3 or so bottles of Red infuriator that you downed.

    I'm surprised at the venue to be honest, won't Mandelson hiss at the alter and fly away as a bat or something.
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    watford30 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    Go along, bite your tongue and report back on the musings of Mandelson. If anyone asks, you're undecided. Seems to work for the many of the staunch Remainers here.

    Or go all 'Death and Glory', have a few drinks and indulge in heckling and bread roll throwing. Before a job search the next day, unless you can successfully claim to have been on medication that reacted badly with the 3 or so bottles of Red infuriator that you downed.

    I'm surprised at the venue to be honest, won't Mandelson hiss at the alter and fly away as a bat or something.
    Only if he's exposed to Sunlight.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    runnymede said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am amazed that whoever designed the leave.eu poster had no thought it would have on many undecided voters, their families and especially their children. Fierce debate and poster campaigns are all part of the campaign but this particular poster is just plain distasteful

    You remind me of those old-fashioned football commentators, who used to say 'what a dreadful example to all those young people watching' when anyone was sent off.
    I am no puritan - it is just unnecessary and leave.eu should be bigger than that
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Casino_Royale said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    A key business skill is being able to separate the personal and the professional and knowing when it's best to say nothing. Just don't drink any alcohol.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,937
    runnymede said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am amazed that whoever designed the leave.eu poster had no thought it would have on many undecided voters, their families and especially their children. Fierce debate and poster campaigns are all part of the campaign but this particular poster is just plain distasteful

    You remind me of those old-fashioned football commentators, who used to say 'what a dreadful example to all those young people watching' when anyone was sent off.
    Nah. Big G is right on this. I would be angry if my kids saw such language on a billboard no matter how much I might agree with the sentiment. This will annoy far more people than it attracts. lt is another stupid own goal.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    edited April 2016
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    We'll get eight weeks of the Tories shouting at each other. Then Dave either loses and stands down and the shouting starts again over his successor and the Brexit negotiations, or Remain wins and he stays and the Leavers shout Betrayal at every opportunity. With a wafer thin majority this is not going away until 2020 at the earliest. Meanwhile most people in the country will look on bemused, at best, or increasingly furious at worst.

    As a conservative member I am very annoyed with both sides as the Country having a conservative government is far more important to me than remaining in or leaving the EU
    I know you don't see it this way but for me as socially liberal former Tory activist that sentence does very much strike me as putting party before country

    One thing you have to consider us that no matter how much you might wish it we will have another Labour Government in the future and they could do far less damage to us outside the EU than still in it.
    I do consider a conservative government as essential for the Country and outside the EU Corbyn could go merrily on his way Nationalising everything in sight which could really damage the economy
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