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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The BREXIT referendum: Roger’s latest update on what’s happ
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The BREXIT referendum: Roger’s latest update on what’s happening in the PR/Ad industry
The last few weeks have proved him right. It’s been a free-for-all. Every claim more outlandish than the last. Every rebuttal more hyperbolic. Then last Thursday Vote Leave were appointed lead campaign, the two slogans BRITAIN STRONGER IN EUROPE and TAKE CONTROL were revealed and everyone settled down…
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Eddie Izzard ?
Lol.
"Celebrity endorsement can turn the fortunes of a product in the flutter of an eyelash. Think Nicole Kidman, Gary Lineker, George Clooney, Eric Cantona, David Beckham, Peter Kay….. The chances are you’ll think of the product they’ve endorsed before you remember their daytime job."
I think that's overstating the case somewhat. If I had to say I would go for a cinema chain, Walkers crisps, a coffee brand, Stella Artois (?), David Beckham Inc., John Smiths (?). Now I've deliberately left the first one wrong but that was the first thing that came to my mind. When I see these people I don't start thinking about what they've advertised.
"Osborne announced that leaving would cost £4,300 per household. Unlike most of his flights of fancy this has been a difficult one for LEAVE to bat away."
As far as I can tell this statistic is nonsense. This is from the BBC:
"GDP is currently about £1.8tn a year - if you divide that by 27 million households you get £66,666. But average household income is about £44,000. They are clearly not the same thing."
There's also the little matter of how many households there will be by 2030. But I guess what matters is that Osborne has put it into the minds of the voters that their household income will be reduced by £4,300 if we leave. Have leave rebutted the claims well enough? Probably not, and I guess this is Roger's point. The bullshit spouted by the Remain campaign is probably going to make more of an impact in the minds of the voters.
I would however take issue with the Obama reference. I think describing his intervention as an enormity is a bit much: inappropriate is about as far as it goes.
But never mind Leave, some on Remain will be happy to call him out as a foreigner with no love of Britain intervening in our domestic affairs. At least other EU politicians have an interest in the debate as our decision will affect their citizens' rights. Obama can shut up and sod off.
However, Roger's talking about perception - that overlap in PR an politics - and on that score he might be right. Obama is still popular here, though nowhere near as much as he was, and at the margins - and all elections are fought at the margins - that might make a difference. Then again, it's two months to polling and who'll remember it then? Celebrity endorsements matter in the moment. Unless repeated - as ad campaigns do - they quickly lose their potency.
I have heard very few outwardly say they are Leave. When I did so at the pub, I got some funny looks.
I'd suggest they get Ries & Ries from America. If they'd do it. I feel they'd be less hidebound than any UK one. And more effective.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/at-last-corbyn-wounds-cameron-in-the-commons-cockfight-lpqpqdh79
We will listen. And we will obediently follow you!
Thanks for the thread Roger, very good.
One thing I completely agree on is that Boris is the last remaining hope for Leave (and it is fading fast). Gove appeals to a tiny minority with his cerebral, analytical mode of politics. Personally, I like it a lot but it is completely unrealistic to think that the majority will be swayed by it.
Boris can reach areas other politicians can't, hence him winning a City that Khan is going to win by about 20 points. The referendum is ultimately about what your vision of the future for your country is. And Boris is good at vision, details not so much.
There has been a definite shift in the last few days and remain now look very secure again with the trend having been reversed. It is not too late for that trend to change again but it is going to take something special and Boris is the best bet.
Celebrity endorsement certainly works in advertising (though I cannot understand it myself). I suspect the major influence on the campaign from Obama's visit will be to engage some of the groups such as BME and women with the campaign.
Buried in an FT story today is a very interesting stat, which the FT themselves seem rather uncomfortable about.
YouGov have run a poll of business executives on Brexit showing a much more even split than the Remain side would have you believe (and the various voodoo polls of 'business opinion' would show). The topline results are REMAIN 49 LEAVE 40
This chimes with my own experiences of discussing the issue with my City and business contacts. In a personal capacity, business opinion is far more eurosceptic than in a public one. But eurosceptic businesspeople tend to keep their heads down in public either for a quiet life or concerns about the consequences of expressing their opinion.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/324c86ca-0705-11e6-9b51-0fb5e65703ce.html#axzz4629s5rDr
I like Leave's regional approach here. Much closer to the ground than a big name from London. Surprised PR Week haven't a more recent update than March.
I'm not comfortable with celebrity endorsement but the reality is its here to stay, politicians have become slebs and are fawned over by some. I find that extraordinary but it exists nonetheless and must be taken into account if predicting an outcome.
Reckon that Leave is missing a heavyweight pol who would be a credible PM if Leave won. Someone who could take a "father of the nation" role, calm nerves and demonstrate it will be fine with me.
Whatever you might think of Gove or Boris, they are not that.
Shy Leavers in the professional sector are a phenomenon, even amongst Leave's own hired advertisers it seems.
obviously new crosses of St George flying over 3,different pitches.
"I think that's overstating the case somewhat. If I had to say I would go for a cinema chain, Walkers crisps, a coffee brand, Stella Artois (?), David Beckham Inc., John Smiths (?). Now I've deliberately left the first one wrong but that was the first thing that came to my mind. When I see these people I don't start thinking about what they've advertised."
When I first wrote it I used American examples and it worked much better. But I thought bringing in characters like George Foreman Bill Cosby and Beyonce selling American products made it a bit remote so I changed it for Europeans which I agree is stretching it a bit
It will be interesting to see the effect Obama has.
Mr. Bolger, only a couple of days until St George's Day, which may explain it.
some more snippets here
“Business, and particularly big business, is often portrayed as being strongly ‘Remain’,” said Zak Meziane, partner at management consultants Clarus Consulting. “But our survey suggests that, across the spread of businesses, it’s actually a close-run thing.”
The survey of 618 executives at a range of British businesses also suggested that more than two-thirds of business leaders would vote according to personal rather than professional considerations.
This was a consistent finding regardless of business size, with 73 per cent of respondents from small businesses saying their decision would be a personal one, and 67 per cent from large companies saying the same
Its things like that, completely out of anybody's hands, that could easily swing it one way or the other.
When given for free, it's handy gratis PR fodder, but very few are swayed unless the brand extension is very cutely done.
The nearest they have is Gove, who was last spotted in the Beano playing Walter Softy.
http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/poll-majority-of-swedes-want-to-leave-eu-in-case-of-brexit/
I do agree, though, that Gove just doesn't have mass appeal.
I've noticed fewer people telling me they want out of the EU on the doorsteps this week. The only 2 reasons ever mentioned are immigration (linked to services such as schools/GPs rather than jobs) and 'wanting my country back.' It seems to me that Remain may have decisively won the economic argument this week - but will that be enough?
Predicted Borrowing
2010/11 £149bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £89bn
2013/14 £60bn
2014/15 £37bn
2015/16 £20bn
Actual Borrowing
2010/11 £137bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £121bn
2013/14 £103bn
2014/15 £92bn
2015/16 ???
Osborne has borrowed approximately £3,000 more for every person in Britain than he said he would.
In total he has borrowed over £10,000 for every person in Britain.
Enjoy paying it back.
We'd have taken Sweden, and Denmark from inside the EU. We'd have brought Norway and co together from outside. It would have been the perfect destination for all who didn't buy into ever closer union, but liked the idea of a continent wide free trade block - including things like financial services, which we hugely benefit from.
But unfortunately, because the destination is 'completely out, way more out than Norway, or even Switzerland', then (a) it seems unlikely that the referendum will be won, (b) it is much more likely to be near-term disruptive, and therefore unappealing to encourage others to follow us, and (c) for Sweden, which is completely surrounded by EEA states, they aren't going to go to our status, even if they did leave the EU.
That's not me predicting Leave (although I have several times for other reasons) I'm just thinking of the mood in the country come June.
Close race and the economy matters. If it has indeed been won.
Perhaps Gove was not so far off the mark after all.
Am I alone in having not actually received the infamous EU document from the Government? Is my postman a leaver?
Though (as an ex retail consultant) I'd argue that rather more work went into growing Reiss than you suggest....
Cummings interview by the select committee yesterday shows the issue very well, where he said he wasn't even going to bother commissioning an independent economic study, and Elliot still hasn't responded to a single email of mine - or that of many others.
They think the case against the EU really makes itself, and the country will mobilise to vote against it through a process of osmosis. Perhaps they think campaigning is just a bit dirty.
They need to realise this is a fight to the death, the stakes couldn't be higher and the Remain campaign so far has barely put a foot wrong, apart from Lord Rose, and Leave didn't even exploit that.
You have to weigh up the alternative claims, consider who is making them and why, and vote accordingly.
Not very different from normal politics.
Criticising the Leave campaign is counter productive, it what Meeks and Nabavi want you to do.
Last April it had blipped up to 2.4%. Whether this was accidental or companies taking preemptive action against the threat of an EdM government I don't know, but it was certainly fortunate for the Conservatives.
I'm in an easy position, I've wanted to leave for years, I can ignore the bollox about us all living in tents in Kent, I appreciate not everybody sees it that way.
It comes down to a state of mind: do you want our Parliament hamstrung by unelected commissioners in Brussels?
Everything else is irrelevant to me.
Osborne makes Brown look competent.
When I explained to her Gove's speech and that Brexit could unleash a wave of democratic reform right across the EU she sounded enthused.
She has now gone from Remain to Undecided.
(But she is still thinking of banning me from pb.com)
Leave would be unwise to do their usual abuse and ridicule routine on Obama
The thought occured to me that perhaps they are struggling to persuade an agency of sufficient calibre to take them on. Despite what I said last week if the majority of an agency's clients are pan European-as is the case with most large agencies-perhaps they might be reluctant to be seen working for Brexit?
For months its been 'Will it be Norway, or Switzerland, or Canada?'
Now we know its Albania.....
After that, the scramble will really begin.
If only politicians did sell policies like they were 'selling washing powder'!
It would be virtual radio silence......
Keep it up.
As long as the world economy keeps pottering along, as it seems to be doing, it really won't matter that much but if things do go bad we are in the position of the person asking for directions to Dublin.
1 day.
My wife is probably closest to Philip Thompson in her views.
I just have to get her to see it ;-)