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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The multi-million pound effort to manipulate LEAVE’s positi

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited April 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The multi-million pound effort to manipulate LEAVE’s position on Betfair appears to have petered out

As we’ve all noted it has been a bad opening week of the official campaign in the polls for OUT. One survey after another has been published showing the margin behind IN getting longer. Normally you would have expected such polling to have been reflected in the betting but that’s not what happened on the Betfair exchange where an average of a £1m has been matched every day this week.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,603
    First!
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,603
    I expect the usual well reasoned open minded response from some of the LEAVErs, and some of them possibly less so. Has John Redwood added this to the global conspiracy yet?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,603
    It's the FT so LEAVErs can safely ignore it:

    Intellectually, Mr Gove’s Albanian option barely makes sense. Politically, suggesting leaving the EU and joining the Balkans is obviously an absurd proposition. You can expect to hear a lot more about Albania during the rest of the referendum campaign.


    http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2016/04/gove-and-the-albanian-option/
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    My plan for this referendum looked like it was working. I bought Leave at good odds with the plan to go all green as the race tightened. It is now back where it started. I stopped backing Leave some months ago.

    The odds there on the Remain bands moved a little in the opposite direction I think. 60-65% was 8.4% not so long ago, now not much left at 7.2. I think the value is looking to be outside the 50-60% range, in light of the difficulties polling.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown

    10,000 seconds
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited April 2016
    Truly boring :smiley:

    I won't spoil it for you, it needs to be savoured in full, but this gives a flavour.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/in-honour-of-the-queen-an-mp-tells-the-single-most-boring-anecdo/
    When royal historians come to record that anecdote – in, say, a chapter titled “An Uninteresting Thing That Almost Happened, But Didn’t” – what a wealth of material there will be to analyse. In particular, the way in which the Queen “smiled broadly” – perhaps darting an anxious glance at her protection officers as she did so.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    CarlottaVance said:

    It's the FT so LEAVErs can safely ignore it:

    Intellectually, Mr Gove’s Albanian option barely makes sense. Politically, suggesting leaving the EU and joining the Balkans is obviously an absurd proposition. You can expect to hear a lot more about Albania during the rest of the referendum campaign.


    http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2016/04/gove-and-the-albanian-option/

    Don't worry, we will.

    Just like we did when it recommended Kinnock in 1992, the ERM and joining the euro

    #wrongthenwrongnow
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Plato_Says said:

    Truly boring :smiley:

    I won't spoil it for you, it needs to be savoured in full, but this gives a flavour.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/in-honour-of-the-queen-an-mp-tells-the-single-most-boring-anecdo/

    When royal historians come to record that anecdote – in, say, a chapter titled “An Uninteresting Thing That Almost Happened, But Didn’t” – what a wealth of material there will be to analyse. In particular, the way in which the Queen “smiled broadly” – perhaps darting an anxious glance at her protection officers as she did so.
    beautiful
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    On topic, is there any evidence someone was trying to do this, other than a lot of money, or was it just a bunch of optimistic pro-Leaver punters or someone with inside poll knowledge?

    I'm struggling to think of many Leavers who have that sort of money. Even Arron Banks.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    On topic, if true, it seems an extraordinary way to spend a lot of money. In the US presidential, the sums involved in the campaign overall are staggering - hundreds of millions of dollars per side - and so there might just be an argument that a million or two spent making their candidate look like the favourites of people who bet impartially and on the basis of informed judgement is worth while. Even there, the fact that it's just one market overseas brings even that into doubt - do the US media pay Betfair enough attention to justify the spend? - but there is at least a case.

    But the EURef is a different deal. A couple of million quid (being conservative - there'll have been lots of regular betting too), would fund an awful lot of campaigning in Britain. Why spend it on such a peripheral activity? I'm not saying it hasn't happened but if it has, it doesn't make any sense.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,202
    david_herdson said:

    On topic, if true, it seems an extraordinary way to spend a lot of money. In the US presidential, the sums involved in the campaign overall are staggering - hundreds of millions of dollars per side - and so there might just be an argument that a million or two spent making their candidate look like the favourites of people who bet impartially and on the basis of informed judgement is worth while. Even there, the fact that it's just one market overseas brings even that into doubt - do the US media pay Betfair enough attention to justify the spend? - but there is at least a case.

    But the EURef is a different deal. A couple of million quid (being conservative - there'll have been lots of regular betting too), would fund an awful lot of campaigning in Britain. Why spend it on such a peripheral activity? I'm not saying it hasn't happened but if it has, it doesn't make any sense.

    I agree and as far as I know Leave does not have the £7m it is allowed to spend in this period. Posters, leaflets or seeking to move the odds on a market very few people have heard of? Hmm.....

    People do crazy things but a mastermind co-ordinating this seems pretty unlikely to me.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Casino_Royale said:

    On topic, is there any evidence someone was trying to do this, other than a lot of money, or was it just a bunch of optimistic pro-Leaver punters or someone with inside poll knowledge?

    I'm struggling to think of many Leavers who have that sort of money. Even Arron Banks.

    Its no more than another negative Brexit thread, "Leave tries to manipulate market but fails", is the gist of it. There is no evidence a Brexit supporter was involved and moreover, on Betfair every time an individual places a bet an individual lays it. Perhaps the layer is a Brexit supporter.

    After yesterday's interesting and impartial thread header its back to Brexit bashing by the pb hierarchy, albeit slightly more subtle.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    david_herdson said:

    On topic, if true, it seems an extraordinary way to spend a lot of money. In the US presidential, the sums involved in the campaign overall are staggering - hundreds of millions of dollars per side - and so there might just be an argument that a million or two spent making their candidate look like the favourites of people who bet impartially and on the basis of informed judgement is worth while. Even there, the fact that it's just one market overseas brings even that into doubt - do the US media pay Betfair enough attention to justify the spend? - but there is at least a case.

    But the EURef is a different deal. A couple of million quid (being conservative - there'll have been lots of regular betting too), would fund an awful lot of campaigning in Britain. Why spend it on such a peripheral activity? I'm not saying it hasn't happened but if it has, it doesn't make any sense.

    Good post, there is no logic in the thread header
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Nothing like a good conspiracy theory first thing
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,921
    david_herdson said:

    On topic, if true, it seems an extraordinary way to spend a lot of money. In the US presidential, the sums involved in the campaign overall are staggering - hundreds of millions of dollars per side - and so there might just be an argument that a million or two spent making their candidate look like the favourites of people who bet impartially and on the basis of informed judgement is worth while. Even there, the fact that it's just one market overseas brings even that into doubt - do the US media pay Betfair enough attention to justify the spend? - but there is at least a case.

    But the EURef is a different deal. A couple of million quid (being conservative - there'll have been lots of regular betting too), would fund an awful lot of campaigning in Britain. Why spend it on such a peripheral activity? I'm not saying it hasn't happened but if it has, it doesn't make any sense.

    It might have generated a lot of headlines and column inches had polls, the Queen and various deaths not got in the way.

  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Casino_Royale said:

    On topic, is there any evidence someone was trying to do this, other than a lot of money, or was it just a bunch of optimistic pro-Leaver punters or someone with inside poll knowledge?

    I'm struggling to think of many Leavers who have that sort of money. Even Arron Banks.

    I suspect that it was a bunch of optomistic Leavers wanting to back Brexit, perhaps also some Remainers balancing their books. It was a pretty intense and shortlived episode though.

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    DavidL said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, if true, it seems an extraordinary way to spend a lot of money. In the US presidential, the sums involved in the campaign overall are staggering - hundreds of millions of dollars per side - and so there might just be an argument that a million or two spent making their candidate look like the favourites of people who bet impartially and on the basis of informed judgement is worth while. Even there, the fact that it's just one market overseas brings even that into doubt - do the US media pay Betfair enough attention to justify the spend? - but there is at least a case.

    But the EURef is a different deal. A couple of million quid (being conservative - there'll have been lots of regular betting too), would fund an awful lot of campaigning in Britain. Why spend it on such a peripheral activity? I'm not saying it hasn't happened but if it has, it doesn't make any sense.

    I agree and as far as I know Leave does not have the £7m it is allowed to spend in this period. Posters, leaflets or seeking to move the odds on a market very few people have heard of? Hmm.....

    People do crazy things but a mastermind co-ordinating this seems pretty unlikely to me.
    I think the Midlands Industrial council were prepared to give up to £4-5m but, bizarrely, to GO or Grassroots Movement.

    I think that only makes sense once Vote Leave, as the official campaign, has maxed out.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Morning all. An interesting hypothesis, which must have a ring of truth to it as the regular bookies didn't respond and there wasn't any surprising polling or major news that would have moved the actual odds.

    It does seem something of a waste of money to bet so much purely to move the price a few percent, when it immediately bounced back previous position once the flow stopped.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Off topic, sadly another busy week for the obituary writers - are there any entertainers from my 1980s childhood not now either dead or imprisoned?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.

    He's likely to get quite a shock, if the comments look like I suspect they will.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,202
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.

    He's likely to get quite a shock, if the comments look like I suspect they will.
    Nah, anyone who has survived this long in US politics knows more about abuse than frothers in the Telegraph. This is a man who is allegedly a secret Muslim and part of a Zionist conspiracy at the same time. This will be very small beer.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.

    Oh dear - the Leaver whingefest is up and running nice and early again. Roll on June - except something tells me they're gonna go on and on and on and on........
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.

    He's likely to get quite a shock, if the comments look like I suspect they will.
    The latest Telegraph redesign has removed most of the comments sections, but it's fair to say from comments elsewhere that the intervention of the US President in the debate is ill-considered at best.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    On topic, is there any evidence someone was trying to do this, other than a lot of money, or was it just a bunch of optimistic pro-Leaver punters or someone with inside poll knowledge?

    I'm struggling to think of many Leavers who have that sort of money. Even Arron Banks.

    I suspect that it was a bunch of optomistic Leavers wanting to back Brexit, perhaps also some Remainers balancing their books. It was a pretty intense and shortlived episode though.

    It seems that all those who back Leave on betfair are Brexit supporters and all those who lay Leave are Remain supporters.

    A very naive view and an insight into your approach to betting. Very few people make long term profits on betfair, those that do don't simply back what they hope to happen.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited April 2016
    Replied to wrong post!
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    We're coming for you, we're coming for you....

    PB Fantasy League update

    Burtby Babes = Leicester
    Scrapheap = Spurs
    Foxes = West Brom
    TSE = Watford
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.


    It is very good though. I know it won't go down wll with some but it's very well crafted and he's hitting a lot of buttons that''ll appeal to the undecideds
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.

    He's likely to get quite a shock, if the comments look like I suspect they will.
    The latest Telegraph redesign has removed most of the comments sections, but it's fair to say from comments elsewhere that the intervention of the US President in the debate is ill-considered at best.
    This doesn't really make sense. People who are strongly for Leave are hardly going to respond positively to the intervention, but partly that is because they know the damage it could do to their chances of success. If they genuinely thought Obama's intervention would be good for them, they wouldn't need to get worked up about telling everyone about it.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.


    It is very good though. I know it won't go down wll with some but it's very well crafted and he's hitting a lot of buttons that''ll appeal to the undecideds
    And tomorrow the President of Albania speaks up for Leave - what's not to like? :)
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    We're coming for you, we're coming for you....

    PB Fantasy League update

    Burtby Babes = Leicester
    Scrapheap = Spurs
    Foxes = West Brom
    TSE = Watford

    Yep. I have played the wildcard and had half a new team, sadly I am Chelsea rather than Leicester this year.

    In real life however - top of the league :-)
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    It could be unfortunate timing for Remain, the Obama bit has effectively been buried by other news, only the Telegraph has made a big deal of it, with what seems a mixed response. I think women like Obama, he seems a nice bloke, I don't think he'll have the positive uplift Remain were hoping for.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.


    It is very good though. I know it won't go down wll with some but it's very well crafted and he's hitting a lot of buttons that''ll appeal to the undecideds
    And tomorrow the President of Albania speaks up for Leave - what's not to like? :)
    What is to like are your desperate and amateurish attempts to distort what Gove said.

    Must do better old chap, leave it to the people on your side that understand it.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.

    He's likely to get quite a shock, if the comments look like I suspect they will.
    Nah, anyone who has survived this long in US politics knows more about abuse than frothers in the Telegraph. This is a man who is allegedly a secret Muslim and part of a Zionist conspiracy at the same time. This will be very small beer.
    There aren't any comments in the new Telegraph website unless I've gone blind. The ones in the Times are 98% bugger off irrespective of Leave or Remain.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Clearly someone wanted to place a very big bet on Leave. Since the operation ended after a few days, it has not moved the price in the long term. So if it was an attempt to move the markets, it has failed. Given the liquidity of the market, the fact this amount of money would run out quickly would have been apparent beforehand. So I conclude that was not the motive.

    It seems to me on this occasion simply that someone wanted to place a very big bet on Leave.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Clearly someone wanted to place a very big bet on Leave. Since the operation ended after a few days, it has not moved the price in the long term. So if it was an attempt to move the markets, it has failed. Given the liquidity of the market, the fact this amount of money would run out quickly would have been apparent beforehand. So I conclude that was not the motive.

    It seems to me on this occasion simply that someone wanted to place a very big bet on Leave.

    Yep.

    All big punters will talk about the problems of getting large sums on with bookmakers, the successful ones at least, betfair has changed everything.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,326
    Mostly about the Khan/Cameron stuff, but some thoughtful general points too:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/22/tories-attempt-smear-sadiq-khan-repellent
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RupertMyers: Brexiter: we'll strike new deals with the US & the world.
    US & the world: don't do it, bro.
    Brexiter: shut up! What's it got to do with you?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,202
    Plato_Says said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.

    He's likely to get quite a shock, if the comments look like I suspect they will.
    Nah, anyone who has survived this long in US politics knows more about abuse than frothers in the Telegraph. This is a man who is allegedly a secret Muslim and part of a Zionist conspiracy at the same time. This will be very small beer.
    There aren't any comments in the new Telegraph website unless I've gone blind. The ones in the Times are 98% bugger off irrespective of Leave or Remain.
    As someone commented downthread they seem a lot less keen on comments in the new format. They also seem to have given up on the subscribe when you have read X articles in a week (unless I am just going there a lot less often).

    I think Leavers have to accept that Cameron and Osborne are bringing the same skill and effort to this that they did to the GE. No stone is left unturned in finding an angle. Each stone on its own is inconsequential but together they make an avalanche. These two have not dominated UK politics for a decade just because they are lucky. Unless there are some particularly adverse events this is not looking close.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Clearly someone wanted to place a very big bet on Leave. Since the operation ended after a few days, it has not moved the price in the long term. So if it was an attempt to move the markets, it has failed. Given the liquidity of the market, the fact this amount of money would run out quickly would have been apparent beforehand. So I conclude that was not the motive.

    It seems to me on this occasion simply that someone wanted to place a very big bet on Leave.

    That's my reckoning.

    They might calculate that at some point during the primary campaign in May/June Leave will have a good few days when they lead in the polls, and the price comes in, whereupon they can trade out.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. P, it's truly a shame that the US refuses to trade with any non-EU country :(
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,921
    "Piss off America, this has nothing to do with you. Now, can we start talking about that trade agreement which will give us a mountain of advantages we could not have received while inside the EU?"
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    blackburn63 said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.


    It is very good though. I know it won't go down wll with some but it's very well crafted and he's hitting a lot of buttons that''ll appeal to the undecideds
    And tomorrow the President of Albania speaks up for Leave - what's not to like? :)
    What is to like are your desperate and amateurish attempts to distort what Gove said.

    Must do better old chap, leave it to the people on your side that understand it.
    Lol - how quaint to think it matters what he actually said.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    DavidL said:

    Plato_Says said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.

    He's likely to get quite a shock, if the comments look like I suspect they will.
    Nah, anyone who has survived this long in US politics knows more about abuse than frothers in the Telegraph. This is a man who is allegedly a secret Muslim and part of a Zionist conspiracy at the same time. This will be very small beer.
    There aren't any comments in the new Telegraph website unless I've gone blind. The ones in the Times are 98% bugger off irrespective of Leave or Remain.
    As someone commented downthread they seem a lot less keen on comments in the new format. They also seem to have given up on the subscribe when you have read X articles in a week (unless I am just going there a lot less often).

    I think Leavers have to accept that Cameron and Osborne are bringing the same skill and effort to this that they did to the GE. No stone is left unturned in finding an angle. Each stone on its own is inconsequential but together they make an avalanche. These two have not dominated UK politics for a decade just because they are lucky. Unless there are some particularly adverse events this is not looking close.
    There's a ten article limit per week using a PC, but none using a phone IIRC. It's taken me ten days to log in as a subscriber. Won't be renewing mine. No animal pix gallery now nor blogs. Two bits I really liked.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Scott_P said:

    @RupertMyers: Brexiter: we'll strike new deals with the US & the world.
    US & the world: don't do it, bro.
    Brexiter: shut up! What's it got to do with you?

    Early start for that £7.20 an hour Scott.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SouthamObserver said:

    "Piss off America, this has nothing to do with you. Now, can we start talking about that trade agreement which will give us a mountain of advantages we could not have received while inside the EU?"

    I see that Boris Johnson is again criticising the leader of a federation of states that came together to form a single country of hypocrisy for advocating that an ally should continue to pool sovereignty with its neighbours on a more limited basis. He's being perplexingly stupid.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    blackburn63 said:

    It could be unfortunate timing for Remain, the Obama bit has effectively been buried by other news, only the Telegraph has made a big deal of it, with what seems a mixed response. I think women like Obama, he seems a nice bloke, I don't think he'll have the positive uplift Remain were hoping for.

    There will probably be a big set-piece speech with Cameron at his side today or tomorrow.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm bored stiff with wall to wall Prince coverage. His last big hit here was in 1994.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    blackburn63 said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.


    It is very good though. I know it won't go down wll with some but it's very well crafted and he's hitting a lot of buttons that''ll appeal to the undecideds
    And tomorrow the President of Albania speaks up for Leave - what's not to like? :)
    What is to like are your desperate and amateurish attempts to distort what Gove said.

    Must do better old chap, leave it to the people on your side that understand it.
    Accuracy seems to be a problem for Vote Leave. This appearance before the select committee is truly astonishing:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/20/accuracy-is-for-snake-oil-pussies-vote-leaves-campaign-director-defies-mps?CMP=share_btn_fb

    For an organisation that supposedly respects the sovereignty of the HoC it is bizarre. Why is this bonkers guy so involved in the Leave campaign?
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, if true, it seems an extraordinary way to spend a lot of money. In the US presidential, the sums involved in the campaign overall are staggering - hundreds of millions of dollars per side - and so there might just be an argument that a million or two spent making their candidate look like the favourites of people who bet impartially and on the basis of informed judgement is worth while. Even there, the fact that it's just one market overseas brings even that into doubt - do the US media pay Betfair enough attention to justify the spend? - but there is at least a case.

    But the EURef is a different deal. A couple of million quid (being conservative - there'll have been lots of regular betting too), would fund an awful lot of campaigning in Britain. Why spend it on such a peripheral activity? I'm not saying it hasn't happened but if it has, it doesn't make any sense.

    I agree and as far as I know Leave does not have the £7m it is allowed to spend in this period. Posters, leaflets or seeking to move the odds on a market very few people have heard of? Hmm.....

    People do crazy things but a mastermind co-ordinating this seems pretty unlikely to me.
    I think the Midlands Industrial council were prepared to give up to £4-5m but, bizarrely, to GO or Grassroots Movement.

    I think that only makes sense once Vote Leave, as the official campaign, has maxed out.
    Interesting to see this story about the MIC, considering their previous generosity towards the Conservative Party. Makes you wonder if the donations tap will be turned off, after this latest upset. That will hurt the Tories.
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    foxinsoxuk said:

    blackburn63 said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.


    It is very good though. I know it won't go down wll with some but it's very well crafted and he's hitting a lot of buttons that''ll appeal to the undecideds
    And tomorrow the President of Albania speaks up for Leave - what's not to like? :)
    What is to like are your desperate and amateurish attempts to distort what Gove said.

    Must do better old chap, leave it to the people on your side that understand it.
    Accuracy seems to be a problem for Vote Leave. This appearance before the select committee is truly astonishing:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/20/accuracy-is-for-snake-oil-pussies-vote-leaves-campaign-director-defies-mps?CMP=share_btn_fb

    For an organisation that supposedly respects the sovereignty of the HoC it is bizarre. Why is this bonkers guy so involved in the Leave campaign?
    Nothing Leave have done is any different to the In side.

    In the interests of accuracy, why not direct your criticism to Remain too?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    NickPalmer said:

    Mostly about the Khan/Cameron stuff, but some thoughtful general points too:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/22/tories-attempt-smear-sadiq-khan-repellent

    There seems to be a lot of it about. One of the local papers here has as its front page lead Conservative attacks on a Jewish Labour councillor for anti-semitism. For the last three or four Labour leaders, personal abuse has been the main Tory MO, though Blair's attacks on Major were hardly confined to political differences.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,910
    edited April 2016
    AlastairMeeks said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    "Piss off America, this has nothing to do with you. Now, can we start talking about that trade agreement which will give us a mountain of advantages we could not have received while inside the EU?"

    I see that Boris Johnson is again criticising the leader of a federation of states that came together to form a single country of hypocrisy for advocating that an ally should continue to pool sovereignty with its neighbours on a more limited basis. He's being perplexingly stupid.
    I'm following a Wyoming Cruz delegate on Twitter - he has similiar thoughts on New York as Boris does to our neighbours now.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Dr. Foxinsox, it's not a problem for one campaign. Osborne's £4,300 figure has rightly been slammed for being dodgier than a three bob note.

    Mr. Meeks, unless you're advocating a United States of Europe, that doesn't make any sense.

    And that's without considering the wildly different circumstances of 21st century Europe and 18th century North America.

    Is Obama proposing to give the ECJ the whip hand over the US? Is he proposing becoming a massive net contributor to the EU? Does he think QMV should be able to impose rules on the US?
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Plato..I must be the only person on the planet who has never heard him sing..
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    NickPalmer said:

    Mostly about the Khan/Cameron stuff, but some thoughtful general points too:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/22/tories-attempt-smear-sadiq-khan-repellent

    A very good article by Gaby Hinsliff
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    watford30 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    blackburn63 said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.


    It is very good though. I know it won't go down wll with some but it's very well crafted and he's hitting a lot of buttons that''ll appeal to the undecideds
    And tomorrow the President of Albania speaks up for Leave - what's not to like? :)
    What is to like are your desperate and amateurish attempts to distort what Gove said.

    Must do better old chap, leave it to the people on your side that understand it.
    Accuracy seems to be a problem for Vote Leave. This appearance before the select committee is truly astonishing:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/20/accuracy-is-for-snake-oil-pussies-vote-leaves-campaign-director-defies-mps?CMP=share_btn_fb

    For an organisation that supposedly respects the sovereignty of the HoC it is bizarre. Why is this bonkers guy so involved in the Leave campaign?
    Nothing Leave have done is any different to the In side.

    In the interests of accuracy, why not direct your criticism to Remain too?
    Do you think Cummings is an asset to Leave? Shouldn't he at least have done some homework before appearing at the committee? It doesn't inspire confidence in the robustness of the Leave case!
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    felix said:

    blackburn63 said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.


    It is very good though. I know it won't go down wll with some but it's very well crafted and he's hitting a lot of buttons that''ll appeal to the undecideds
    And tomorrow the President of Albania speaks up for Leave - what's not to like? :)
    What is to like are your desperate and amateurish attempts to distort what Gove said.

    Must do better old chap, leave it to the people on your side that understand it.
    Lol - how quaint to think it matters what he actually said.
    It clearly matters to you!
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Casino_Royale said:

    blackburn63 said:

    It could be unfortunate timing for Remain, the Obama bit has effectively been buried by other news, only the Telegraph has made a big deal of it, with what seems a mixed response. I think women like Obama, he seems a nice bloke, I don't think he'll have the positive uplift Remain were hoping for.

    There will probably be a big set-piece speech with Cameron at his side today or tomorrow.
    Yes I guess you're right, even after Obama slated Cameron recently.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,921
    NickPalmer said:

    Mostly about the Khan/Cameron stuff, but some thoughtful general points too:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/22/tories-attempt-smear-sadiq-khan-repellent

    Yep - very good. But let's not forget the Zionist dog-whistle the hard left is so fond of.

  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    foxinsoxuk said:

    blackburn63 said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.


    It is very good though. I know it won't go down wll with some but it's very well crafted and he's hitting a lot of buttons that''ll appeal to the undecideds
    And tomorrow the President of Albania speaks up for Leave - what's not to like? :)
    What is to like are your desperate and amateurish attempts to distort what Gove said.

    Must do better old chap, leave it to the people on your side that understand it.
    Accuracy seems to be a problem for Vote Leave. This appearance before the select committee is truly astonishing:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/20/accuracy-is-for-snake-oil-pussies-vote-leaves-campaign-director-defies-mps?CMP=share_btn_fb

    For an organisation that supposedly respects the sovereignty of the HoC it is bizarre. Why is this bonkers guy so involved in the Leave campaign?
    Hilarious stuff, Leavers were warned against the futility of playing the man in a thread header. You lot do nothing else.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    AlastairMeeks said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    "Piss off America, this has nothing to do with you. Now, can we start talking about that trade agreement which will give us a mountain of advantages we could not have received while inside the EU?"

    I see that Boris Johnson is again criticising the leader of a federation of states that came together to form a single country of hypocrisy for advocating that an ally should continue to pool sovereignty with its neighbours on a more limited basis. He's being perplexingly stupid.
    "The single most common myth about the EU in the United States – heard occasionally in Europe too – is that it is 1776 all over again: the creation of a new federal union. This is a particularly potent and dangerous myth. The EU is not a federation, in which important powers are permanently retained by the states and only a defined and necessary set are delegated to the central government: it is a steadily-deeper union that seeks the progressive eradication of sovereign state powers. Moreover, the European peoples are not a political body, a demos: they speak different languages, have different cultures, and have different histories."

    http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2016/1/the-top-ten-us-myths-about-the-european-union
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    blackburn63 said:

    felix said:

    blackburn63 said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.


    It is very good though. I know it won't go down wll with some but it's very well crafted and he's hitting a lot of buttons that''ll appeal to the undecideds
    And tomorrow the President of Albania speaks up for Leave - what's not to like? :)
    What is to like are your desperate and amateurish attempts to distort what Gove said.

    Must do better old chap, leave it to the people on your side that understand it.
    Lol - how quaint to think it matters what he actually said.
    It clearly matters to you!
    I think the message matters to undecideds. Go Albania!
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown

    33 minutes 33 seconds
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Dominic Raab very effective on R4. The REMAIN chap, Peter out of his depth. More Raab please.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    DavidL said:

    Plato_Says said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.

    He's likely to get quite a shock, if the comments look like I suspect they will.
    Nah, anyone who has survived this long in US politics knows more about abuse than frothers in the Telegraph. This is a man who is allegedly a secret Muslim and part of a Zionist conspiracy at the same time. This will be very small beer.
    There aren't any comments in the new Telegraph website unless I've gone blind. The ones in the Times are 98% bugger off irrespective of Leave or Remain.
    As someone commented downthread they seem a lot less keen on comments in the new format. They also seem to have given up on the subscribe when you have read X articles in a week (unless I am just going there a lot less often).

    I think Leavers have to accept that Cameron and Osborne are bringing the same skill and effort to this that they did to the GE. No stone is left unturned in finding an angle. Each stone on its own is inconsequential but together they make an avalanche. These two have not dominated UK politics for a decade just because they are lucky. Unless there are some particularly adverse events this is not looking close.
    Possibly. Or this could be much closer than expected, like the NZ flag referendum or the Quebec 1995 referendum.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MP_SE said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    "Piss off America, this has nothing to do with you. Now, can we start talking about that trade agreement which will give us a mountain of advantages we could not have received while inside the EU?"

    I see that Boris Johnson is again criticising the leader of a federation of states that came together to form a single country of hypocrisy for advocating that an ally should continue to pool sovereignty with its neighbours on a more limited basis. He's being perplexingly stupid.
    "The single most common myth about the EU in the United States – heard occasionally in Europe too – is that it is 1776 all over again: the creation of a new federal union. This is a particularly potent and dangerous myth. The EU is not a federation, in which important powers are permanently retained by the states and only a defined and necessary set are delegated to the central government: it is a steadily-deeper union that seeks the progressive eradication of sovereign state powers. Moreover, the European peoples are not a political body, a demos: they speak different languages, have different cultures, and have different histories."

    http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2016/1/the-top-ten-us-myths-about-the-european-union
    I see today is going to be another day like yesterday where Leavers put forward mutually contradictory criticisms of their opponents. And who said that consistency is the sign of a small mind?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    blackburn63 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    blackburn63 said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.


    It is very good though. I know it won't go down wll with some but it's very well crafted and he's hitting a lot of buttons that''ll appeal to the undecideds
    And tomorrow the President of Albania speaks up for Leave - what's not to like? :)
    What is to like are your desperate and amateurish attempts to distort what Gove said.

    Must do better old chap, leave it to the people on your side that understand it.
    Accuracy seems to be a problem for Vote Leave. This appearance before the select committee is truly astonishing:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/20/accuracy-is-for-snake-oil-pussies-vote-leaves-campaign-director-defies-mps?CMP=share_btn_fb

    For an organisation that supposedly respects the sovereignty of the HoC it is bizarre. Why is this bonkers guy so involved in the Leave campaign?
    Hilarious stuff, Leavers were warned against the futility of playing the man in a thread header. You lot do nothing else.
    So you think he is doing a good job then?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    foxinsoxuk said:

    blackburn63 said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.


    It is very good though. I know it won't go down wll with some but it's very well crafted and he's hitting a lot of buttons that''ll appeal to the undecideds
    And tomorrow the President of Albania speaks up for Leave - what's not to like? :)
    What is to like are your desperate and amateurish attempts to distort what Gove said.

    Must do better old chap, leave it to the people on your side that understand it.
    Accuracy seems to be a problem for Vote Leave. This appearance before the select committee is truly astonishing:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/20/accuracy-is-for-snake-oil-pussies-vote-leaves-campaign-director-defies-mps?CMP=share_btn_fb

    For an organisation that supposedly respects the sovereignty of the HoC it is bizarre. Why is this bonkers guy so involved in the Leave campaign?
    Cummings is an eccentric, and people skills aren't his forte, but all he's saying there is that it's disingenuous to suggest any forecast or projection can be 'accurate', since they all rely on assumptions.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    felix said:

    I think the message matters to undecideds. Go Albania!

    Clearly time to watch Wag the Dog again...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-FXkj-r9Mc
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Ed Conway has a novel reason to Remain, the EU is doomed so let's be there when it happens.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/by-staying-in-the-eu-we-can-help-to-dismantle-it-cvxqjg3dq
  • Options
    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited April 2016
    "With a betting exchange the odds are not fixed by bookmakers. Instead the exchange brings together those wanting to bet on a particular proposition with those wanting to accept bets on it."

    All odds once the betting starts are set by the market. A bookie who works any other way will soon be out of business. As all bookies know, gambling is a mug's game.

    "Betfair #EURef markets gets back to normal after what appears to costly effort to boost LEAVE'"

    Oh come on!

    "As we’ve all noted it has been a bad opening week of the official campaign in the polls for OUT. One survey after another has been published showing the margin behind IN getting longer. Normally you would have expected such polling to have been reflected in the betting"

    This isn't true. In the Scottish referendum, the probability of a YES win implied by the betting odds was much lower than the probability implied by the polls. Or it would have been, had pollsters stated serious figures for expected error, rather than leaving it for hacks to say that all polls were "within the margin of error", without knowing what that term meant, and experts to comment that in their expert opinion the probability of a hung parliament was greater than 99%.

    It could be LEAVE manipulating the market, but it's far more likely to be REMAIN.

    There have been bumps in the Betfair price before. This time the price took a little longer than usual to get back to 33%.

    Why did lots of money get staked on LEAVE? Probably in response to Osborne's statement, delivered with a straight face, that his experts had told him that the average household will lose £4300 if Britain leaves the EU. That put the EU referendum in the TV headlines. People remembered about it and went to vote LEAVE. Oops, I mean they went to bet on LEAVE. Most people in the country outside of wonkland think LEAVE will win. Then when it looked as though the price wasn't going to go back to 33%, REMAIN supporters spent some money putting the price back to that level.

    That explanation is simple and likely to be correct.

    A million or a couple of million isn't much money anyway.

    People need to ask why, apart from during the Brussels spike, one other spike, and this latest bump, the price has been so flat at 33%. Money needs to be spent - not so much, but still some - to cause that effect too. It's not as if no money has been being staked.



  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.

    He's likely to get quite a shock, if the comments look like I suspect they will.
    I think the Telegraph has stopped allowing comments.
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    foxinsoxuk said:

    blackburn63 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    blackburn63 said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.


    It is very good though. I know it won't go down wll with some but it's very well crafted and he's hitting a lot of buttons that''ll appeal to the undecideds
    And tomorrow the President of Albania speaks up for Leave - what's not to like? :)
    What is to like are your desperate and amateurish attempts to distort what Gove said.

    Must do better old chap, leave it to the people on your side that understand it.
    Accuracy seems to be a problem for Vote Leave. This appearance before the select committee is truly astonishing:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/20/accuracy-is-for-snake-oil-pussies-vote-leaves-campaign-director-defies-mps?CMP=share_btn_fb

    For an organisation that supposedly respects the sovereignty of the HoC it is bizarre. Why is this bonkers guy so involved in the Leave campaign?
    Hilarious stuff, Leavers were warned against the futility of playing the man in a thread header. You lot do nothing else.
    So you think he is doing a good job then?
    No. Happy?
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    https://twitter.com/ShareRadioUK/status/723406101102743553
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Miss Plato, Conway's an oaf. An economics editor who spends a Budget Day interview with the Chancellor wibbling about second class train tickets is not a man weighed down with gravitas.
  • Options
    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    blackburn63 said:

    Yes I guess you're right, even after Obama slated Cameron recently.

    Do you mean when Obama said Britain was very naughty and unreliable for not fighting a big war in Libya as the US had told them to? What a squib that stupid statement was.

  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    blackburn63 said:

    It could be unfortunate timing for Remain, the Obama bit has effectively been buried by other news, only the Telegraph has made a big deal of it, with what seems a mixed response. I think women like Obama, he seems a nice bloke, I don't think he'll have the positive uplift Remain were hoping for.


    Obama will be a positive for Remain, how much of a positive is open to debate.
  • Options
    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Dominic Raab very effective on R4. The REMAIN chap, Peter out of his depth. More Raab please.

    Raab is my MP. He seems to think what I think about most issues. Huzzah! I'm guessing this is not nearly as common a thing as we would like - representing the electorate and all that.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Dominic Raab very effective on R4. The REMAIN chap, Peter out of his depth. More Raab please.

    He was super on Sky the other day too
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Casino_Royale said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    blackburn63 said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.


    It is very good though. I know it won't go down wll with some but it's very well crafted and he's hitting a lot of buttons that''ll appeal to the undecideds
    And tomorrow the President of Albania speaks up for Leave - what's not to like? :)
    What is to like are your desperate and amateurish attempts to distort what Gove said.

    Must do better old chap, leave it to the people on your side that understand it.
    Accuracy seems to be a problem for Vote Leave. This appearance before the select committee is truly astonishing:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/20/accuracy-is-for-snake-oil-pussies-vote-leaves-campaign-director-defies-mps?CMP=share_btn_fb

    For an organisation that supposedly respects the sovereignty of the HoC it is bizarre. Why is this bonkers guy so involved in the Leave campaign?
    Cummings is an eccentric, and people skills aren't his forte, but all he's saying there is that it's disingenuous to suggest any forecast or projection can be 'accurate', since they all rely on assumptions.
    He should at least have been prepared to defend his figures. Roger has done some excellent threads on the advertising perspective of the campaign, and surely people skills are pretty fundamental to a role.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    Imagine the outrage had Ronald Reagan or George Bush arrived in London to tell Thatcher or Blair to stay in The EU.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    Plato_Says said:

    DavidL said:

    Plato_Says said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.

    He's likely to get quite a shock, if the comments look like I suspect they will.
    Nah, anyone who has survived this long in US politics knows more about abuse than frothers in the Telegraph. This is a man who is allegedly a secret Muslim and part of a Zionist conspiracy at the same time. This will be very small beer.
    There aren't any comments in the new Telegraph website unless I've gone blind. The ones in the Times are 98% bugger off irrespective of Leave or Remain.
    As someone commented downthread they seem a lot less keen on comments in the new format. They also seem to have given up on the subscribe when you have read X articles in a week (unless I am just going there a lot less often).

    I think Leavers have to accept that Cameron and Osborne are bringing the same skill and effort to this that they did to the GE. No stone is left unturned in finding an angle. Each stone on its own is inconsequential but together they make an avalanche. These two have not dominated UK politics for a decade just because they are lucky. Unless there are some particularly adverse events this is not looking close.
    There's a ten article limit per week using a PC, but none using a phone IIRC. It's taken me ten days to log in as a subscriber. Won't be renewing mine. No animal pix gallery now nor blogs. Two bits I really liked.
    When you get to your article limit if you just clear your history you go back to the start.
  • Options
    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Elections and referendums aren't like races in which you can say that this horse is leading by so much a mile from the finish and that horse is leading by so much at the last fence. Yet that is the view almost universally put forward by news purveyors, commentators and experts.

    Political news and analysis has been greatly influenced by sports news and analysis
  • Options
    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    DavidL said:

    Plato_Says said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.

    He's likely to get quite a shock, if the comments look like I suspect they will.
    Nah, anyone who has survived this long in US politics knows more about abuse than frothers in the Telegraph. This is a man who is allegedly a secret Muslim and part of a Zionist conspiracy at the same time. This will be very small beer.
    There aren't any comments in the new Telegraph website unless I've gone blind. The ones in the Times are 98% bugger off irrespective of Leave or Remain.
    As someone commented downthread they seem a lot less keen on comments in the new format. They also seem to have given up on the subscribe when you have read X articles in a week (unless I am just going there a lot less often).

    I think Leavers have to accept that Cameron and Osborne are bringing the same skill and effort to this that they did to the GE. No stone is left unturned in finding an angle. Each stone on its own is inconsequential but together they make an avalanche. These two have not dominated UK politics for a decade just because they are lucky. Unless there are some particularly adverse events this is not looking close.
    There's a ten article limit per week using a PC, but none using a phone IIRC. It's taken me ten days to log in as a subscriber. Won't be renewing mine. No animal pix gallery now nor blogs. Two bits I really liked.
    When you get to your article limit if you just clear your history you go back to the start.
    Or open the article in private browsing. Never a need to pay!
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Obama: Hope and Change is only for Americans.

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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,371
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.

    He's likely to get quite a shock, if the comments look like I suspect they will.
    I was listening to how it was all coming across on R4 this morning, trying not to let my own very strong feelings on the subject get in the way. I just can't see it coming over well. It was when Obama effectively said it was his business because of the tens of thousands of American war dead resting in European cemeteries. To any American, that's a killer argument. But to my mind, Brits and Americans, of all ages, have very different vews of the war and the relative roles of the two countries. I could be wrong, but personally an American implying that they get a say over Britain's future because they saved us really pisses me off. What do people here think? Remainers especially.
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited April 2016
    Casino_Royale said:


    Cummings is an eccentric, and people skills aren't his forte, but all he's saying there is that it's disingenuous to suggest any forecast or projection can be 'accurate', since they all rely on assumptions.

    I don't know who Cummings is, but he's absolutely right about that. It's ludicrous to say that a poll is accurate or not accurate. Yet that is the kind of language I hear in the media and on this website again and again.

    Pollsters' quoted predictions are predictions on the basis of what people tell them. Telling a pollster something is a different activity from voting. I've also noted that the questions they ask other than "if the vote was tomorrow, how would you vote?" tend to be ridiculous. "Please tick which is the most important issue for you in the EU referendum" is a classic of a stupid question. There's one major effing issue in the EU referendum: immigration. "On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely are you to vote" is only slightly less ridiculous. Asking poll questions is not sampling how people vote.

    The EUref polls are at least as binnable as last year's general election ones.

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I realise that it may be hard for some to accept, but there is always the possibility that Barack Obama's advice is sincere.
  • Options
    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited April 2016
    (deleted)
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    dr_spyn said:

    Imagine the outrage had Ronald Reagan or George Bush arrived in London to tell Thatcher or Blair to stay in The EU.

    I must have missed those referenda.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Boris Has A Point About Obama EU Intervention

    http://news.sky.com/story/1682829/boris-has-a-point-about-obama-eu-intervention

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I realise that it may be hard for some to accept, but there is always the possibility that Barack Obama's advice is sincere.

    You'll be telling me many Tory remainer MPs may be sincere and not kowtowing to the leadership next. Crazy.

    In all honesty, I've no reason to doubt his sincerity, and there's nothing wrong with him being utilised by the remain cause. I dont like being lectured by the guy, I hope it's ineffective, but it's fair game.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,849
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Oh, Obama has already given us our orders in the Telegraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

    Subtle as a sledgehammer.

    He's likely to get quite a shock, if the comments look like I suspect they will.
    I was listening to how it was all coming across on R4 this morning, trying not to let my own very strong feelings on the subject get in the way. I just can't see it coming over well. It was when Obama effectively said it was his business because of the tens of thousands of American war dead resting in European cemeteries. To any American, that's a killer argument. But to my mind, Brits and Americans, of all ages, have very different vews of the war and the relative roles of the two countries. I could be wrong, but personally an American implying that they get a say over Britain's future because they saved us really pisses me off. What do people here think? Remainers especially.
    Bunch of tossers, poking their big beaks in thinking everybody should jump when they give out orders. looking after No1 as they always do, they love useful chumps and make full use of our lapdog sycophancy. Unfortunately the balloons running our country love to get a burger at the White House and will prostrate themselves in any position when ordered.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    John_N4 said:

    Casino_Royale said:


    Cummings is an eccentric, and people skills aren't his forte, but all he's saying there is that it's disingenuous to suggest any forecast or projection can be 'accurate', since they all rely on assumptions.

    I don't know who Cummings is, but he's absolutely right about that. It's ludicrous to say that a poll is accurate or not accurate. Yet that is the kind of language I hear in the media and on this website again and again.

    Pollsters' quoted predictions are predictions on the basis of what people tell them. Telling a pollster something is a different activity from voting. I've also noted that the questions they ask other than "if the vote was tomorrow, how would you vote?" tend to be ridiculous. "Please tick which is the most important issue for you in the EU referendum" is a classic of a stupid question. There's one major effing issue in the EU referendum: immigration. "On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely are you to vote" is only slightly less ridiculous. Asking poll questions is not sampling how people vote.

    The EUref polls are at least as binnable as last year's general election ones.

    Surely what people consider the most important issue in the referendum, or are willing to say to a pollster is the most important issue, is worthwhile knowing. I don't care about immigration, even if it is significant for the majority, and different targeted messages from people knowing that could affect me.
  • Options
    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    kle4 said:

    John_N4 said:

    Casino_Royale said:


    Cummings is an eccentric, and people skills aren't his forte, but all he's saying there is that it's disingenuous to suggest any forecast or projection can be 'accurate', since they all rely on assumptions.

    I don't know who Cummings is, but he's absolutely right about that. It's ludicrous to say that a poll is accurate or not accurate. Yet that is the kind of language I hear in the media and on this website again and again.

    Pollsters' quoted predictions are predictions on the basis of what people tell them. Telling a pollster something is a different activity from voting. I've also noted that the questions they ask other than "if the vote was tomorrow, how would you vote?" tend to be ridiculous. "Please tick which is the most important issue for you in the EU referendum" is a classic of a stupid question. There's one major effing issue in the EU referendum: immigration. "On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely are you to vote" is only slightly less ridiculous. Asking poll questions is not sampling how people vote.

    The EUref polls are at least as binnable as last year's general election ones.

    Surely what people consider the most important issue in the referendum, or are willing to say to a pollster is the most important issue, is worthwhile knowing. I don't care about immigration, even if it is significant for the majority, and different targeted messages from people knowing that could affect me.
    I agree that to know people's motivations is very important, but asking them to choose from a list doesn't get to grips with the subject.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection :

    Should The United Kingdom Remain A Member Of The European Union Or Leave The European Union?

    Remain 57.5% (+1.5) .. Leave 42.5% (-1.5)

    Turnout Projection 63% (+0.5)

    Changes from 19th April.

    Note - Largest REMAIN lead with ARSE4EU

    ......................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE4EU - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors For European Union
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,182
    Morning all,

    Excuse my ignore, but how do you go about getting the mass of live information that Betfair produces? There seems to be an API for building third-party apps, but I can't find any access to the data for an average punter.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,603
    Good to see the SNP are behaving like a 'natural party of government':

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14444715.SNP_accused_of_keeping_attainment_gap_report_secret_until_after_election

    Labour & the Tories would be proud of them.....
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Patrick said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Dominic Raab very effective on R4. The REMAIN chap, Peter out of his depth. More Raab please.

    Raab is my MP. He seems to think what I think about most issues. Huzzah! I'm guessing this is not nearly as common a thing as we would like - representing the electorate and all that.
    You are not the electorate!
This discussion has been closed.