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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson say pursuing reform in the EU isn’t a pipe-dr

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson say pursuing reform in the EU isn’t a pipe-dream

Remember the government’s EU renegotiation? It was a big deal back in February when it was agreed after a marathon European Council summit and has been little heard of since. True, the five points do briefly appear in the government’s referendum leaflet but hardly any of the campaigning for or against membership has bothered to reference them. They are now essentially an irrelevance.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited April 2016
    Congratulations Rob!

    Computers are a pain in the **** sometimes, aren't they?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited April 2016

    Congratulations Rob!

    Seconded. P/S Yes they are.
  • Congrats Rob
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited April 2016
    When Remain win, they will simply breathe a sigh of relief and go back to trend, taking of course the precautions to make any future exit impossible.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Must disagree. Still, if we end up staying, perhaps I'll be proved wrong.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Thanks, Rob! The backup solution wasn't bad either.

    On topic, I agree with David, but one has to concede that change in the EU, for good or ill, is slow. Gradual reform is a feasible project, as is gradual integration or gradual scaling back. Dramatic stuff, good or bad, won't happen. Which in turn is a reason why some of the scare stuff - European army, for instance - is misplaced. I should like to see serious integration to the point that people routinely say "I'm European", but I don't expect to in my lifetime.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Normality returns with ease - Thank you Robert.

    I doubt repair will be that easy or quick for the Tory party after the referendum. Not sure they did a back up before marching into vitriolic dispute.

    The real question is what would a split on the Tory party do the the odds or likelihood of a split in Labour too? Ages ago I suggested that both parties could split post referendum, and i still think it is a possibility.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    US President Barack Obama has told an audience of young British people to reject isolationism, pessimism and cynicism.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1683935/obama-tells-uk-reject-pessimism-and-cynicism

    Smearing anyone who wants freedom from the EU. Sorry Remainers, but this is insulting. You may like it, but it is still insulting to many British people.

    Cameron has failed to make his arguments, so he's trying to use a well-respected US President to do the job for him. I find this level of interference extraordinary, so probably shows behind the scenes how desperate Cameron & Osborne are.

  • Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Well done Robert to get the server back up and running. Next Donate button funds to go towards an AWS instance?

    On topic. The EU is IMHO unreformable. The only thing that might shock the EU elite out of their complacency is one of the two large net contributors telling them to stuff their project up their...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2016

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Its all kicking off in the Premier League today. Failed drugs tests and injunctions (which again took all of 2 secs to work out, why do they bother...the papers have got really good at dropping enough hints to be able to deduce who it is)...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited April 2016
    Sorry David there will be no "reform" in the EU now or in the future.

    All that we'll happen after we vote to stay is that the next wave of "integration" will be thrust upon us to make it impossible to for us to ever go through an in/out referendum in future.

    Ten years from now a PM will be urging the Brit's to "do their patriotic duty" and ditch the Pound, submerge our army in the the USE armed forces, etc...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.

    UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Sandpit said:

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.

    UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
    It is claimed it is a "fat burning" drug. Seems to be the drugs du jour of many athletes.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Sorry David there will be no "reform" in the EU now or in the future.

    All that we'll happen after we vote to stay is that the next wave of "integration" will be thrust upon us to make it impossible to for us to ever go through an in/out referendum in future.

    Ten years from now a PM will be urging the Brit's to "do their patriotic duty" and ditch the Pound, submerge our army in the the USE armed forces, etc...

    The problem leave have is that they have to trash any idea that things might change as it would be very unhelpful. However as leave say the UK is the 5th biggest economy and the idea that we will be irrelevant in this chaotic europe is just not creditable
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited April 2016

    Sceptics would no doubt argue that another year would have made little difference; that the EU has had decades to reform and has done nothing more than accrue powers
    That might be the case, but I for one could have been persuaded by a better deal, although it would be unlikely as it would need to be a very very good one, and I think the calculation was even a good deal after more crises would not pass the public.
    The EU still hasn’t really come to institutional grips with the Eurozone crisis, never mind the challenges of the recent mass migration... That necessity offers an opportunity to those wanting a quid pro quo written into the treaties.
    That's not a reason why things might change. It's a reason things should, but as you say they haven't come to grips with the problems yet, why would they now?
    there comes a point when the domestic electoral consequences outweigh the diplomatic gains from appearing a Good European. That point is already here for some and near for others.
    You'd hope. Where's the proof? The EU has always talked of reform and caring about concerns of people, but when push comes to shove speaks with absolute contempt of those who suggest genuine changes. Juncker talked about the EU meddling too much in the little things, but still suggested they needed to cooperate more in economic matters, and no way they cooperate more, integrate more, in one area and not the others if they can help it.

    …money. Those countries that most need reform in the EU are by and large those which pay in most. That is a powerful lever to extract concessions from the rest.
    Again, you'd hope. It hasn’t worked so far, no reason it should. Maybe they could just cut their bloody spending, yet apparently that reform is impossible.

    Either way, Cameron’s February negotiation is likely to have been only the starter; the main course is still to come.
    I wish that were so, in the event of Remain, but I fail to be convinced – you’re arguing to cumulative effect of these three strains of pressure for reform mean it will have to come, but I think it underplays the extent of bull headedness.

    Fundamentally the EU bureaucracy doesn’t believe it needs to change, and presently an easy majority of the EU and it’s most powerful nations also don’t think it needs to change. Not in any meaningful way, just minor things to shut populists up. Without genuine acceptance of need for change, I cannot believe real change will come, that’s what turned me from a Remainer to a Leaver in the first place, and I cannot see what in the halls of power of the EU will change – the same pressures will be there, even worse than before, but in event of Remain they’ll have dodged a bullet and continue on as usual.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Its all kicking off in the Premier League today. Failed drugs tests and injunctions (which again took all of 2 secs to work out, why do they bother...the papers have got really good at dropping enough hints to be able to deduce who it is)...
    I well remember one celeb injunction that the Mail had great fun with, the silhouette sample graphic wasn't hard to recognise :smiley:
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry David there will be no "reform" in the EU now or in the future.

    All that we'll happen after we vote to stay is that the next wave of "integration" will be thrust upon us to make it impossible to for us to ever go through an in/out referendum in future.

    Ten years from now a PM will be urging the Brit's to "do their patriotic duty" and ditch the Pound, submerge our army in the the USE armed forces, etc...

    The problem leave have is that they have to trash any idea that things might change as it would be very unhelpful. However as leave say the UK is the 5th biggest economy and the idea that we will be irrelevant in this chaotic europe is just not creditable
    We are irrelevant already
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761
    The EU has got progressively more difficult to reform as it has grown bigger. From a UK perspective this is not an accident. The UK were very supportive of the introduction of the eastern European countries of the former soviet bloc for a range of reasons but an important one was that it was thought that this would make further integration difficult creating a broader but shallower EU and the control previously exercised by the Franco-German axis would be diluted.

    This analysis was pretty much cross party followed on by the Blair government every bit as much as Major. Blair's "mistake" about not phasing the introduction of freedom of movement to those countries was based on a serious miscalculation of the draw factor of the UK but it was driven by a desire to find new friends and allies in the EU who would help shape it the way we wanted.

    Now we are in a position where we actually wanted reform, albeit of a nature that only a minority in the EU would want and we are hoist on our own petard. Reforming the EU so that those not in the EZ have adequate protections proved beyond Cameron and would almost certainly have proved beyond anyone else. Ironically, the best prospect of reform now is by the UK leaving, probably with at least 2 other non EZ members and the EFTA type arrangement becoming the associate style membership we and the EZ both need.
  • Sandpit said:

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.

    UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
    My understanding is that usually UEFA punish the player not the club, unless doping is considered institutionalised at the club.
  • US President Barack Obama has told an audience of young British people to reject isolationism, pessimism and cynicism.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1683935/obama-tells-uk-reject-pessimism-and-cynicism

    Smearing anyone who wants freedom from the EU. Sorry Remainers, but this is insulting. You may like it, but it is still insulting to many British people.

    Cameron has failed to make his arguments, so he's trying to use a well-respected US President to do the job for him. I find this level of interference extraordinary, so probably shows behind the scenes how desperate Cameron & Osborne are.

    As a remainer I do not enjoy seeing leave in the position they find themselves but that is not remains fault. There is a strong argument for both remain and leave but leave are failing to make it
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2016

    Sandpit said:

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.

    UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
    My understanding is that usually UEFA punish the player not the club, unless doping is considered institutionalised at the club.
    I seemed to remember (based upon a previous recent case) there are specific rules about if you have more than x players fail the tests, the club is punished, otherwise it is the individual. I can't remember the number for x, 4 rings a bell for some reason.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The mess that was Greece over the Euro showed me that the determination of the wagon circlers is quite extraordinary.

    Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited April 2016

    When Remain win, they will simply breathe a sigh of relief and go back to trend, taking of course the precautions to make any future exit impossible.

    If Remain win they will not just go back to the trend but will dramatically accelerate it. They should have be doing so years ago but could not for fear of driving the British out. With that fear gone they would be mad not to take rapid action to increase political integration as fast as possible as a means of reinforcing economic union. It is entirely understandable and inevitable. There is absolutely nothing that the British Government will be able to do to stop it
  • Sandpit said:

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.

    UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
    Liverpool suspending Sakho must give credence to the story. It would be a sad end to Liverpool's revival if this see's them banned from Europe
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Goddamnit Liverpool. I don't suppose they'd accept the argument that in most cases having Sakho play is actually a benefit to our opponents.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    US President Barack Obama has told an audience of young British people to reject isolationism, pessimism and cynicism.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1683935/obama-tells-uk-reject-pessimism-and-cynicism

    Smearing anyone who wants freedom from the EU. Sorry Remainers, but this is insulting. You may like it, but it is still insulting to many British people.

    Cameron has failed to make his arguments, so he's trying to use a well-respected US President to do the job for him. I find this level of interference extraordinary, so probably shows behind the scenes how desperate Cameron & Osborne are.

    Apparently Cameron's inability to persuade his own electorate is a strength
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.

    UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
    It is claimed it is a "fat burning" drug. Seems to be the drugs du jour of many athletes.
    BBC now saying that it's a player charge and there can't be sanctions against the club. Let's hope so, but he will be missed today and on Thursday. Fingers crossed he's not done anything stupid, but if he's guilty then he needs to be punished appropriately.
  • Sandpit said:

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.

    UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
    Liverpool suspending Sakho must give credence to the story. It would be a sad end to Liverpool's revival if this see's them banned from Europe
    https://twitter.com/Iandennisbbc/status/723856351923961856
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    When Remain win, they will simply breathe a sigh of relief and go back to trend, taking of course the precautions to make any future exit impossible.

    If Remain win they will not just go back to the trend but will dramatically accelerate it. They should have be doing so years ago but could not for fear of driving the British out. With that fear gone they would be mad not to take rapid action to increase political integration as fast as possible as a means of reinforcing economic union. It is entirely understandable and inevitable. There is absolutely nothing that the British Government will be able to do to stop it
    Even assuming a British government would want to stop it.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Sandpit said:

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.

    UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
    Liverpool suspending Sakho must give credence to the story. It would be a sad end to Liverpool's revival if this see's them banned from Europe
    Would serve their fans right though.

    They got all English clubs banned in the eighties.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.

    UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
    It is claimed it is a "fat burning" drug. Seems to be the drugs du jour of many athletes.
    BBC now saying that it's a player charge and there can't be sanctions against the club. Let's hope so, but he will be missed today and on Thursday. Fingers crossed he's not done anything stupid, but if he's guilty then he needs to be punished appropriately.
    Didn't he score against Dortmund and is this test from that game. Sky seem to say it could have ramifications for Liverrool
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Sandpit said:

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.

    UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
    Liverpool suspending Sakho must give credence to the story. It would be a sad end to Liverpool's revival if this see's them banned from Europe
    Would serve their fans right though.

    They got all English clubs banned in the eighties.
    The new generation of fans, that is those of us who were spermatozoa at the that time, don't deserve that though!
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.

    UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
    Liverpool suspending Sakho must give credence to the story. It would be a sad end to Liverpool's revival if this see's them banned from Europe
    Would serve their fans right though.

    They got all English clubs banned in the eighties.
    The new generation of fans, that is those of us who were spermatozoa at the that time, don't deserve that though!
    Nor did we back then.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited April 2016
    If the UK leaves the EU, the EU will reform. The reforms, however, might not be an improvement: it would probably reduce member state power and increase protectionism.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    If the UK leaves the EU, the EU will reform. The reforms, however, might not be an improvement: it would probably reduce member state power and increase protectionism.

    That will be the result whether we stay in or not. It has to be for the Eurozone to survive (at least the reducing member state power bit)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Perhaps "back of the queue" isn't such a bad place to be.
    We vote Out, no deal with anyone, we abolish tariffs on imports.

    Then it's up to us whether we choose to impose the protections on the NHS which the left calls for. That would be a safer route to that goal than relying on the EU and QMV.
    The same goes for any other industry or activity we may (albeit foolishly) wish to protect.

    If the French want to protect champagne from British exports, fine. There are other markets.

    Meanwhile we enjoy world prices for our imports.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Indeed, it gets more remarkable by the day.

    US President Barack Obama has told an audience of young British people to reject isolationism, pessimism and cynicism.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1683935/obama-tells-uk-reject-pessimism-and-cynicism

    Smearing anyone who wants freedom from the EU. Sorry Remainers, but this is insulting. You may like it, but it is still insulting to many British people.

    Cameron has failed to make his arguments, so he's trying to use a well-respected US President to do the job for him. I find this level of interference extraordinary, so probably shows behind the scenes how desperate Cameron & Osborne are.

    Apparently Cameron's inability to persuade his own electorate is a strength
  • Seems Sakho drug charge relates to the second leg at Man Utd. I can hear lawyers warming up
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    When Remain win, they will simply breathe a sigh of relief and go back to trend, taking of course the precautions to make any future exit impossible.

    If Remain win they will not just go back to the trend but will dramatically accelerate it. They should have be doing so years ago but could not for fear of driving the British out. With that fear gone they would be mad not to take rapid action to increase political integration as fast as possible as a means of reinforcing economic union. It is entirely understandable and inevitable. There is absolutely nothing that the British Government will be able to do to stop it
    Even assuming a British government would want to stop it.
    Without I hint of irony, I would trust Corbyn to resist the encroachment of the EU project on British rights more than I would Cameron's Tories. There's not a shadow of a doubt in my mind.

    It's not even that they are reacting to things in a supine way; they are actively working to bring it about. Listen to what Fallon, Hammond, Osborne are saying. You could really weep.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited April 2016
    The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.

    They need to resolve quickly
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry David there will be no "reform" in the EU now or in the future.

    All that we'll happen after we vote to stay is that the next wave of "integration" will be thrust upon us to make it impossible to for us to ever go through an in/out referendum in future.

    Ten years from now a PM will be urging the Brit's to "do their patriotic duty" and ditch the Pound, submerge our army in the the USE armed forces, etc...

    The problem leave have is that they have to trash any idea that things might change as it would be very unhelpful. However as leave say the UK is the 5th biggest economy and the idea that we will be irrelevant in this chaotic europe is just not creditable
    Things will change. But not in the way we want. A future post-Remain PM would be wise to look at the speech given by Hirohito in 1945.

    "The situation has developed, not necessarily to the United Kingdom's advantage"
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.

    They need to resolve quickly

    You mean we have to join the Euro?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Seems Sakho drug charge relates to the second leg at Man Utd. I can hear lawyers warming up

    Didn't Sakho score a goal in the game against Dortmund?

    £50m lawsuit coming.

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    If the UK leaves the EU, the EU will reform. The reforms, however, might not be an improvement: it would probably reduce member state power and increase protectionism.

    The E.U will reduce member states power wether we stay or not. We have no power in the E.U as evidenced by Camerons "deal"
  • The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.

    They need to resolve quickly

    You mean we have to join the Euro?
    No.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    Sandpit said:

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.

    UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
    Liverpool suspending Sakho must give credence to the story. It would be a sad end to Liverpool's revival if this see's them banned from Europe
    Would serve their fans right though.

    They got all English clubs banned in the eighties.
    Harsh, but true.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Betfair showing real movement - the 45% to 50% band has moved right out from about 4.5 to 5.5.

    Leave is 3.25 on main market but arbitrage opportunity - all Leave bands on bands market only sum to 3.75.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    If the UK leaves the EU, the EU will reform. The reforms, however, might not be an improvement: it would probably reduce member state power and increase protectionism.

    Which would be entirely their prerogative. I don't want to influence the French or the Germans. Their future should be left up to them, without Britain having collywobbles about it and/or getting a say.

    As a liberal, why do you want to meddle in the affairs of other nations?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The mess that was Greece over the Euro showed me that the determination of the wagon circlers is quite extraordinary.

    Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?

    Even at the depths of the Greek crisis, Greeks favoured both staying in the EU and staying in the Euro, they just did not want austerity. When forced to choose they opted for the EU.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    ROFL

    first they came for the satirists, then they came for the journalists now they're coming for the symphony orchestras

    Turkey demands Dresdner Sympnony Orchestra pulls production becuase it features the Armenian genocide.

    Amazingly the germans have started making concessions by shutting down the turkish web page for the production.

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/buehne-und-konzert/tuerkei-interveniert-gegen-konzertprojekt-der-dresdner-sinfoniker-14195273.html
  • He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.

    Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    Sandpit said:

    Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that

    Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.

    UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
    Liverpool suspending Sakho must give credence to the story. It would be a sad end to Liverpool's revival if this see's them banned from Europe
    /twitter.com/Iandennisbbc/status/723856351923961856
    As long as West Ham finish higher in the league than Liverpool, I will be a happy LEAVER :)
  • The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.

    They need to resolve quickly

    You mean we have to join the Euro?
    Ah, but the wishful thinkers all say that we'd be allowed a vote on that.

    Remain means further in, not the status quo. And as Justine Greening said on 'Any Questions' last night, there won't be another referendum in the next decade.
  • When Remain win, they will simply breathe a sigh of relief and go back to trend, taking of course the precautions to make any future exit impossible.

    If Remain win they will not just go back to the trend but will dramatically accelerate it. They should have be doing so years ago but could not for fear of driving the British out. With that fear gone they would be mad not to take rapid action to increase political integration as fast as possible as a means of reinforcing economic union. It is entirely understandable and inevitable. There is absolutely nothing that the British Government will be able to do to stop it
    Even assuming a British government would want to stop it.
    Since their official position is 'Remain' that would be highly unlikely.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    An elegant but not very convincing article, and I am not sure David H really believes his own headline, either.

    We should start by being clear about what is meant by 'reform'. A UK perspective would be that this means less trade protectionism, less intrusive regulation, a return of powers to member states, perhaps a reduction in the powers of the Commission. No rise in the budget.

    For most Europeans, this agenda would be considered 'anti-reform', Their agenda might include - moves to a common fiscal policy, full banking union, and increase in the EU budget possibly financed by more EU-wide taxes, a single judicial system and increased integration of foreign and security policy.

    It should be obvious that these two visions are entirely incompatible, and the likelihood of the former being followed is very low given the balance of opinion in the EU.

    Another reason the EU will be keen to speed up agenda 2 i.e. tighter political integration is that the economic integration approach is getting close to exhaustion. The single market has not created a massive increase in integration, contrary to initial expectations.

    This has been most striking in the case of the UK - because the EU is growing so slowly compared to the rest of the world, the structure of UK trade is now tilting sharply away from the EU and this pattern will continue despite the structural factors (EU protectionism) that bias UK trade toward the EU. The income effect is dominant.

    Even in the case of 'REMAIN' in June, the EU is likely to become increasingly less important to the UK economically. This raises the danger of ultimate exit. As a result, the EU will I think quickly move to try to make future UK exit more costly/difficult by speeding up integration in other areas.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.

    Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
    As an Irishman I share your pain

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Patrick
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    edited April 2016

    The mess that was Greece over the Euro showed me that the determination of the wagon circlers is quite extraordinary.

    Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?

    Even at the depths of the Greek crisis, Greeks favoured both staying in the EU and staying in the Euro, they just did not want austerity. When forced to choose they opted for the EU.
    Not surprising when you consider the endless billions Greece has had from the EU.

    Correction not FROM, VIA the EU.

    Its been coming FROM my taxes, your taxes and the taxes of every other PBer.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    Weren't we assured that Dave's flagrant duplicity surrounding the renegotiations and his worthless 'deal' would swing it for Leave - an enraged public lusting to punish his treason and his lies?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    The problem leave have is that they have to trash any idea that things might change as it would be very unhelpful. However as leave say the UK is the 5th biggest economy and the idea that we will be irrelevant in this chaotic europe is just not creditable

    That same argument applies to the renegotiation, the idea that we were the 5th biggest economy so it is implausible that we would be irrelevant, except we are, and we were, Dave came back with nothing.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.

    Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
    Still in Tory Racist mode, I see? :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.

    Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
    Could be worse - wasn't Ireland's saint British? So long as St George wasn't French.
  • He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.

    Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
    As an Irishman I share your pain

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Patrick
    Well I'm off to the cinema, but before that I'm going to have a proper English lunch. A chicken tikka masala.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.

    Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
    As an Irishman I share your pain

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Patrick
    No, St. Paddy's OK on the TSE front:

    "The dates of Patrick's life cannot be fixed with certainty but, on a widespread interpretation, he was active as a missionary in Ireland during the second half of the fifth century."
  • I doubt the EU would reform in any meaningful way until the last possible moment and probably too late. They are in abject denial over so many subjects, even in the event of brexit I can't see them reforming until after another member decides to leave.

    As others have said, the most likely any "reform" will be either nothing of the sort or a blind for further power grabs from the center, making the situation worse not better.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    Weren't we assured that Dave's flagrant duplicity surrounding the renegotiations and his worthless 'deal' would swing it for Leave - an enraged public lusting to punish his treason and his lies?

    No you weren't. Fantasy land again.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2016
    kle4 said:


    Again, you'd hope. It hasn’t worked so far, no reason it should. Maybe they could just cut their bloody spending, yet apparently that reform is impossible.

    There is a demand for more money waiting in the wings for after the referendum, it was tabled earlier in the year to expand the EU budget by a significant amount, but inexplicably put in a drawer for a few months when the referendum came along.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651

    US President Barack Obama has told an audience of young British people to reject isolationism, pessimism and cynicism.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1683935/obama-tells-uk-reject-pessimism-and-cynicism

    Smearing anyone who wants freedom from the EU. Sorry Remainers, but this is insulting. You may like it, but it is still insulting to many British people.

    Cameron has failed to make his arguments, so he's trying to use a well-respected US President to do the job for him. I find this level of interference extraordinary, so probably shows behind the scenes how desperate Cameron & Osborne are.

    As a remainer I do not enjoy seeing leave in the position they find themselves but that is not remains fault. There is a strong argument for both remain and leave but leave are failing to make it
    I think both sides are failing to make an actual case for their cause. In particular, I seriously can't think of a single actual advantage in staying that has been put forward by Remain.
    Remain, are however, pushing strongly against Leave, and Leave are struggling to combat their onslaught.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.

    Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
    As an Irishman I share your pain

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Patrick
    To be fair, St Patrick did at least go to Ireland, even if originally by kidnapping.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    On other matters how many people have seen the Shakespeare google doodle ?

    I correctly guessed 7 of the 8 plays featured.


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    edited April 2016
    FPT



    I am happy that there is some regulation of animal husbandry to a minimal standard. I would be happier if those standards were far higher, but am quite able to apply those standards in my own life. I do this mostly by eating less meat, and am vegetarian most days (very affordable in the UK).

    Obesity is very much a class issue, it would serve poor people as much as anyone else to eat less food and be more selective in what they eat.

    So to clarify, you are happy that British farmers are forced to observe minimum standards, but you are also happy that inferior food products that fall *well* below that standard can be imported and compete without labelling.

    Unless born of a simple malevolence toward British food production, how do you justify this position?
  • He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.

    Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
    Still in Tory Racist mode, I see? :lol:
    Apparently I'm in Traitorous Pro EU mode for the next few months.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.

    They need to resolve quickly

    You mean we have to join the Euro?
    No.
    So you mean we will have to leave. Those are the only two options based on your first statement.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.

    Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
    As an Irishman I share your pain

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Patrick
    To be fair, St Patrick did at least go to Ireland, even if originally by kidnapping.
    It was cold then, we had to do something to boost tourist numbers.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    The mess that was Greece over the Euro showed me that the determination of the wagon circlers is quite extraordinary.

    Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?

    Even at the depths of the Greek crisis, Greeks favoured both staying in the EU and staying in the Euro, they just did not want austerity. When forced to choose they opted for the EU.
    Not surprising when you consider the endless billions Greece has had from the EU.

    Correction not FROM, VIA the EU.

    Its been coming FROM my taxes, your taxes and the taxes of every other PBer.
    "There is no such thing as public money. There is only taxpayer's money."
    - M. H. Thatcher, Tory Conference 1983.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvz8tg4MVpA
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    I get the feeling that Obama's intervention is a big nail in Leave's coffin. Who have they got to counter that sort of heavy artillery? John Howard?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    On other matters how many people have seen the Shakespeare google doodle ?

    I correctly guessed 7 of the 8 plays featured.

    5/8 - Not bad imho, for a literary philistine :lol:
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    The mess that was Greece over the Euro showed me that the determination of the wagon circlers is quite extraordinary.

    Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?

    Even at the depths of the Greek crisis, Greeks favoured both staying in the EU and staying in the Euro, they just did not want austerity. When forced to choose they opted for the EU.
    Where's your evidence for that statement? The Government never put leaving the EU or the euro on the table, and there were leaks concerning the accuracy of the polling.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.

    Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
    Still in Tory Racist mode, I see? :lol:
    Apparently I'm in Traitorous Pro EU mode for the next few months.
    With a Tory Racist tinge!
  • The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.

    They need to resolve quickly

    You mean we have to join the Euro?
    No.
    So you mean we will have to leave. Those are the only two options based on your first statement.
    No. I was talking purely about the Eurozone countries. It is entirely possible to be a member of the EU without being a member of the Eurozone
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    FPT



    I am happy that there is some regulation of animal husbandry to a minimal standard. I would be happier if those standards were far higher, but am quite able to apply those standards in my own life. I do this mostly by eating less meat, and am vegetarian most days (very affordable in the UK).

    Obesity is very much a class issue, it would serve poor people as much as anyone else to eat less food and be more selective in what they eat.

    So to clarify, you are happy that British farmers are forced to observe minimum standards, but you are also happy that inferior food products that fall *well* below that standard can be imported and compete without labelling. Unless born of a simple malevolence for British food production, how do you justify this position?
    That is already the situation, with both Danish bacon and also Thai chicken for example.

    I would like to see evidence that chlorinated chicken is harmful, if there is evidence then trade barriers are reasonable.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    geoffw said:

    Perhaps "back of the queue" isn't such a bad place to be.
    We vote Out, no deal with anyone, we abolish tariffs on imports.

    Then it's up to us whether we choose to impose the protections on the NHS which the left calls for. That would be a safer route to that goal than relying on the EU and QMV.
    The same goes for any other industry or activity we may (albeit foolishly) wish to protect.

    If the French want to protect champagne from British exports, fine. There are other markets.

    Meanwhile we enjoy world prices for our imports.

    The 'back of the queue' bewailing of the EVERCLOSERUNION supporters is reminiscent of the 'in the slow lane' bewailing after Britain left the ERM and the 'left on the platform' bewailing after Britain didn't join the Euro.

    Plus ca change etc

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I get the feeling that Obama's intervention is a big nail in Leave's coffin. Who have they got to counter that sort of heavy artillery? John Howard?

    Vladimir Putin?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    Two calendar months to go to save the UK's independence and freedom!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    I get the feeling that Obama's intervention is a big nail in Leave's coffin. Who have they got to counter that sort of heavy artillery? John Howard?

    I'm floored by that verdict; I really am.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.

    They need to resolve quickly

    At which point you will rapidly find that supposed non-discrimination agreement isn't worth the paper it is printed on.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Two calendar months to go to save the UK's independence and freedom!

    Err, to make no change to our independence and freedom....
  • Indigo said:

    kle4 said:


    Again, you'd hope. It hasn’t worked so far, no reason it should. Maybe they could just cut their bloody spending, yet apparently that reform is impossible.

    There is a demand for more money waiting in the wings for after the referendum, it was tabled earlier in the year to expand the EU budget by a significant amount, but inexplicably put in a drawer for a few months when the referendum came along.
    Luckily Cameron is good at resisting those demands. Remember the £1.7 billion that Osborne paid over last year. Ah. I see.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2016

    The mess that was Greece over the Euro showed me that the determination of the wagon circlers is quite extraordinary.

    Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?

    Even at the depths of the Greek crisis, Greeks favoured both staying in the EU and staying in the Euro, they just did not want austerity. When forced to choose they opted for the EU.
    Not surprising when you consider the endless billions Greece has had from the EU.

    Correction not FROM, VIA the EU.

    Its been coming FROM my taxes, your taxes and the taxes of every other PBer.
    £13bn split between 31m workers equates to a £420 tax bill (round figures) for every worker.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    I get the feeling that Obama's intervention is a big nail in Leave's coffin. Who have they got to counter that sort of heavy artillery? John Howard?

    I'm sure the British government will show their gratitude by sending British soldiers to the 'front of the queue' in America's next war.
  • He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.

    Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
    Still in Tory Racist mode, I see? :lol:
    Apparently I'm in Traitorous Pro EU mode for the next few months.
    With a Tory Racist tinge!
    Patriotism necessitates racism.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    I get the feeling that Obama's intervention is a big nail in Leave's coffin. Who have they got to counter that sort of heavy artillery? John Howard?

    Vladimir Putin?
    So far Mr Putin has left the decision to the british public.

    Is there something wrong with that ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.

    They need to resolve quickly

    You mean we have to join the Euro?
    No.
    So you mean we will have to leave. Those are the only two options based on your first statement.
    No. I was talking purely about the Eurozone countries. It is entirely possible to be a member of the EU without being a member of the Eurozone
    Not really. You're at the periphery not the core.
  • FPT



    I am happy that there is some regulation of animal husbandry to a minimal standard. I would be happier if those standards were far higher, but am quite able to apply those standards in my own life. I do this mostly by eating less meat, and am vegetarian most days (very affordable in the UK).

    Obesity is very much a class issue, it would serve poor people as much as anyone else to eat less food and be more selective in what they eat.

    So to clarify, you are happy that British farmers are forced to observe minimum standards, but you are also happy that inferior food products that fall *well* below that standard can be imported and compete without labelling.

    Unless born of a simple malevolence toward British food production, how do you justify this position?
    Farmers aren't bothered as long as they get the UK taxpayers cash rinsed via Brussels, aka subsidies.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    The mess that was Greece over the Euro showed me that the determination of the wagon circlers is quite extraordinary.

    Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?

    Even at the depths of the Greek crisis, Greeks favoured both staying in the EU and staying in the Euro, they just did not want austerity. When forced to choose they opted for the EU.
    Country that would be a basketcase outside the EU wants to stay in the EU shock. Sooner or later the Germans will get tired of paying for their basketcasery.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    ANECDOTE ALERT

    I think the Obama thing could play very badly for Remain. At my work this morning, people (even ones who said they liked Obama generally) were incensed at the idea of "America again coming over and treating us like their poodle, telling us what to do".
This discussion has been closed.