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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A minority government by another name
David Cameron has had a cabal of fierce critics on the Conservative backbenches conspiring against him almost since the moment he became party leader. In the new Parliament, the cabal has re-emerged and, emboldened by a small Conservative majority in the House of Commons, has periodically pounced to undermine their leadership’s plans on tax credit cuts, Sunday trading and benefit cuts, …
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It is for this reason he will be gone before 2018(possibly even 2017) even if Remain wins - he won't be able to act. He probably would. But could he get to that point? He'd face a leadership challenge before that happens, and as we know you can win the first round of those and still have an untenable position.
Honestly, I don't mind the man continuing on if Remain win, gods knows the other candidates aren't filling me with confidence and I don't care what internal difficulties the Tories have, but I cannot see them letting him stay on. And no, Gove et al saying they want him to doesn't mean a thing, as it won't be up to them either even if they believe it.
Another example of why Leave must push the Turkey angle. Make it about Erdogan getting anything he asks for and how our PM got nothing.
Reminds me a shade of Mohammed Morsi[sp]. Narrowly won an election, then started acting like Julius Caesar, with a similar outcome.
And associations pissed off at being misled.
Cameron has been terrible at Party management since the start - it's only been his personal electoral success/polling that's kept them onside. What do they have to lose now - given if Remain wins they've little chance of getting a job/keeping the one they have?
Fixed Term Parlies allow a lot of mischief making.
Wouldn't it be ironic if after Steve Hilton gave his all to make the Tory Party human again and Dave went to the freezing wastes of the arctic with smelly dogs to prove it that in reality it was all was all a ruse. They were what many had suspected all along. Just Tories trying on new clothes.
For my part, I think if Remain win, it won't by much, which is critical, as the bigger the win the longer I think Cameron can stay on to prepare the way for his successor (theoretically for time for Osborne to recover, but I find it hard to believe that's possible again, especially with economic trouble brewing).
I think Boris and Gove will both be offered something, but Boris a lesser job (somewhere above NI secretary, but below the Great Offices), daring him to openly say his first Cabinet post would be beneath him.
No more than a few defections to UKIP, if any. The grumblers will be there and very angry, but if it is a close Remain win they'll plan a leadership challenge this year they think a Leaver will win regardless, so no point in jumping ship.
Corbyn is safe for a few more years at least.
Hung parliament in 2020, Labour coalition government as 10 years of Tory rule combined with absolute failure to meet their own targets mean the fear of economic trouble from Labour is lessened and the SNP fear isn't effective enough to counter fatigue of Tory government.
This is not to question the validity of the result. Cameron won a majority -- but not a mandate to do anything in particular.
The party will lose 170 councillors and control of a string of councils if people vote as the polls currently suggest, according to analysis by Prof John Curtice for The Telegraph"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/
Doesn't mean they won't happen, of course.
"Do you want to vote for Gove or have a career"
And then Nick Clegg will make a comeback as NUS president
More importantly, welcome to pb.com.
Mr. kle4, it's not a question of courage. To achieve their aim, the easier course is to help shift the Conservative leadership their way, rather than jumping ship and trying to build UKIP into a party of government.
So it's right in that they will propose less partisan stuff, but also the non-partisan stuff will still get stopped too.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/news/wildlife-presenter-david-attenborough-is-named-the-uks-most-trustworthy-figure-9102139.html
But a good afternoon to all, time to get some sun.
Rehashing these battles for the next four years will achieve what precisely? The key to get the disappointed Tories to feel a part of the fold again is not to keep rehashing the reason why they're disappointed but to acknowledge their disappointment and move on with respect onto issues where agreement can be more readily found.
This is the standard Tory loyalist cry since the beginning of time. Before GE2015 you were all saying it about Ed Miliband, before that it was POGWAS, I dare say your predecessors were saying the same about Neil Kinnock and Keir Hardy!
It's not very convincing any more.
IDS-style histrionics are far less convincing.
Also, I *may* be the alter ego of an existing PBer, deployed for comic effect ;-)
Ed Miliband may be playing a long game*.
*Of Dungeons and Dragons^.
^I apologise to any D&D players we may have here.
STR 1
DEX 1
CON 3
INT 20
WIS 10
CHA 2
Gove is perfect Chancellor of the Exchequer material. He is clever, cerebral and wants to get something done rather than play silly voting buying tricks and wheezes. Tory chancellors are always unpopular, their job is taking away people's sweeties, and cutting back on waste, so his profile won't do any harm at all there. Finally, he is from a modest background, and is immune to the posh boy label, and can't be accused of not understand how the man in the street lives.
Str 7
Dex 3
Con 8
Int 4
Wis 1
Cha 16
Chaotic Neutral
David Cameron
STR 6
Dex 15
Con 6
Int 12
WIS 9
CHA 12
Jeremy Corbyn
STR 12
DEX 1
Con 13
Int 2
WIS 1
CHA 5
Note: I've never played D&D
The designated nomination officer will not be appointed by Cameron personally but by a party hack who may not agree with Cameron.
It will be a bit ironic, won`t it, if Cameron can get his policies through only when they enjoy the support of the SNP. Irony in trumps.
But Cameron only "won" the last election by grossly overspending, having found a loophole in electoral law.
And nine of his sitting MPs ought to be disqualified immediately anyway, for not complying with electoral law. No loopholes for them!
'The boundary changes go through in 2018 automatically, without any vote, no? '
No -Parliament still has to approve the proposals. The vote is likely in Autumn 2018.
Jeremy: a Chaotic Left Monk
Dave: a Lawful Right Bard
Michael Fallon: Barbarian for hire
Crosby: Neutral Evil Sorceror
On topic, I suspect that we are in the last 3 months of DC's premiership. If he loses, he'll quit instantly. But if he wins, I think he'll also quit, in a glow of quiet satisfaction. He'll have won the last big battle before the next GE. Why would he hang on so as to have a year or two of tedious squabbles?
I believe the 'designated nomination officer' is/are (paid) contractual employees of central office. They'll do what Feldman tells them to do.
cf howard v flight in 2005 for leader's powers during GE campaign.
Edited extra bit: ah, thought we could insert images directly, but a web link is needed. Fiddlesticks.
I made comedy (and curtailed) character sheets for Cameron, Clegg, Miliband and Salmond. No idea what the address is now, though.
Labour is on course to suffer its worst result in opposition for 34 years at the local elections, one of Britain’s most respected polling experts has warned.
Cameron's conduct since this started has plumbed new depths every week. Just when I think it can't get worse - it does. I've given up on him.
What is most entertaining is the posters who were cheering him on that time, now "betrayed, disgusted, shocked and OUTRAGED" at him doing exactly the same thing, for the same reasons, and expecting the same result.
The idea that a new entrant joining a queue at the back is viewed as a threat rather than the norm shows just how deluded some people are. Of course you join a queue at the back any one can see that, it shouldn't come as unexpected.
WTF has gotten (sic) into these people?
Do you never join the back of a queue? Must make you really popular in Sainsbury's
But in 2011 Labour gained 857 seats compared with 2007 - when Blair was still in office. Losing 170 would still mean that Labour had gained 680 compared with Blair's final set of local elections!
moviesin your Netflixlinequeue?