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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s Ipsos-MORI ratings continue to decline while Corb
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s Ipsos-MORI ratings continue to decline while Corbyn’s improve
For the 2nd month running Corbyn tops the @IpsosMORI leader ratings pic.twitter.com/NzkQ5A1JZ1
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In a scathing attack, the source said the two all-out strikes this week were aimed at toppling the government and Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36126740
@DPJHodges: Owen Paterson says current referendum won't settle the issue. So it took about 4 hours.
There are other signs we can look for. The later stages of economic expansions usually see personal and corporate debt start to take off. Similarly, the current account deficit usually widens before a recession, and shrinks during and after it.
If you look at the "tell tale signs a recession is coming", you get:
- rising inflation?
No. Still virtually non-existent.
- rising personal and corporate debt?
No. Although at still elevated levels, it's declining.
- widening current account deficit?
Yes. Excluding the effects of cheaper oil, the current account deficit is amongst the worst in the world.
If only I could vote for the committee of civil servants who wrote it for next Cons leader I would be happy. I see some of them seem to have spent some time on PB.
What about wages, unemployment, labour participation rate, freight rates, electricity consumption, oil in storage, housing starts, student loan indebtedness, etc, etc. I suspect your figures are UK not global. Recessions can start anywhere and spread. What in your view is the chance of China not slowing markedly?
Ignore the noisy minority
Actually the odd thing about this referendum is that both Leave and Remain are relative side shows.
The default position is Leave are going to struggle, except, if Erdoğan opens his borders at the end of June, Remain are sunk without trace, if anyone blows anything significant up, Remain are history, and if Greece implodes because the IMF talks stall in June, Remain have had it.
Must be odd to be so optimistic, but have so many possibilities that might sink you without trace that you can do nothing about
How does Cameron compare to other prime ministers, how does Corbyn compare to Ed M at a similar juncture.
When she decided to turn down his request to deploy water canons in London she didn’t do so via a discrete written ministerial statement, but by a statement in the Commons which Johnson himself had to sit through.
So, there’s a certain irony that May has adopted the EU referendum position that many of Boris’s allies thought he would. She is for In, but with reservations and implicit criticisms of the renegotiation and the In campaign.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/theresa-may-has-revealed-she-is-a-reluctant-member-of-the-in-campaign/
So Cameron's doing better than Thatcher at a similar point.
Its problem is lack of domestic demand, caused by lack of confidence. And it's a bit of a vicious circle: savings rates are amongst the highest in the world because people are worried. But the high levels of savings constrain economic growth (a rising savings rate will tend to detract from growth, which is why during recessions monetary policy is to discourage saving and encourafe spending), and therefore increase economic uncertainty... causing savings levels to remain high.
George Magnus, of Deutsche Bank, wrote about this phenomenon and called it "Euroglut". Personally, I think he misses that saving exhibits declining marginal utility, and therefore beyond a certain point, propensity to save will decline. Given pretty awful demographics in much of the EU, that could - of course - be some way away.
Cameron - https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ipsosmoripoliticalmonitorapril2016-160420110832/95/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-april-2016-6-638.jpg?cb=1461584642
Basically the same as it ever was.
Also, prime ministers tend to be unpopular.
https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ipsosmoripoliticalmonitorapril2016-160420110832/95/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-april-2016-7-638.jpg?cb=1461584642
Really?
Having said that, it's also the case that the policy mix within individual EU states hasn't been good. France is probably the worst - bleedin' obvious what they need to do, and equally obvious that they are not going to do it anytime soon.
Still, all of that lot is 'in the price' in terms of growth looking forward; with the ECB doing what it can within the political constraints, and the lower oil price providing an effect like a tax-cut, I don't expect an EU recession in the next couple of years (unless a Leave result triggers one).
And the other 50% don't know.
https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/724585955114422272
For someone who claims not to care, thou doth protest much.
Mr. Indigo, thought Boris was a lightweight some time ago, so I'm glad he's damaged his prospects.
May's position appears nonsensical, but I do think she's far likelier than Boris to get the top job.
Opposition leaders
https://image.slidesharecdn.com/polmonapril15vicharts-150430090923-conversion-gate02/95/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-26th29th-april-2015-12-638.jpg?cb=1430385044
Once you go down, you stay down.
The key thing to note is that they all start off quite positive. Only Blair and Cameron, to a lesser extent, have managed to battle gravity.
Eurozone current account surplus came in at €11.1 billion in February of 2016 compared to an upwardly revised €8.3 billion surplus in the previous month. The surpluses in balances of goods (to €25.5 billion from €13.6 billion in January), services (to €3.1 billion from €1.9 billion) and primary income (to €6.3 billion from €2.6 billion) widened while the secondary income deficit increased (to €-23.9 billion from €-9.9 billion). Current Account in the Euro Area averaged 2.93 EUR Billion from 1999 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 44.20 EUR Billion in December of 2015
So on both scores, he's doing better today than he was in April 2012.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html
South Africa's sports minister has banned four of the country's sport federations from bidding for major international tournaments after they failed to create enough opportunities for black players.
Rugby, cricket, athletics and netball are the affected federations.
The South African Rugby Union had announced it would bid for the 2023 Rugby World Cup by the June deadline.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/36130932
Most European countries (except Norway) will have seen current account balances increase further in 2015, as the cost of importing oil, natural gas, steel and coal declined markedly in 2015.
At this point of the electoral cycle, the Tories and Cameron are doing better/on a par with parties/leaders that went onto win the next election.
Labour and Corbyn aren't doing well enough to suggest they will win the next election.
As for own party voters' support, the data only goes back to 1994, unlike the other data that goes back to the 70s, so less scope for analysis.
Cameron's doing better than Major post 1992, worse than Blair upto 2003, and better than Blair post 2003
By and large, the US and the EU have very similar average tariff levels, which are typically just below WTO requirements.
China, India, Japan, and much of Africa and South America are very protectionist, and have quite a lot of tariffs well above WTO levels.
Singapore and a few other places have very low tariffs.
The place where the EU shows very clear protectionist tendencies is in agriculture. In goods and services it's actually got a very open economy.
What is difficult to predict is when the ECB stimulus stops being effective, as we saw with the Fed, eventually the bond buying programme becomes ineffective for supporting growth. The other big question is what happens to the Eurozone once interest rates start to go up over here and when the Fed resumes raising US interest rates, how much money is going to pile into such low yield assets in the EMU when easier gains are able to be had in stable countries like the US and UK?
In the cases of Tim Farron and Jeremy Corbyn, that's reasonable enough. For Nigel Farage, that's incomprehensible.
The key factor is California on June 7th - recent polls have swung towards Trump But if you want some fun try http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/
If Trump gets more than 97 delegates tomorrow he is ahead of projections.
Of course, against that, we have a nasty current account issue, and need a weaker currency generally. The question is which way the currency will go in the event of rising interest rates given the liabilities side of the picture.
Though some of us remember when David Cameron had a MINUS net rating with Tory voters.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
"Cameron has his 2nd worst month ever amongst CON voters in the Ipsos-MORI leader ratings"
70% say that Cameron is out of touch with ordinary people.
63% disagree that Cameron has sound judgement.
As it happens, as I've already said on previous occasions, I wouldn't take much notice of leader ratings or voting-intention polls at the moment anyway. We need to wait until the political dust-storm of the referendum campaign has finished, and let things settle down.
When I last read through the Doha round minutes (https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/dda_e.htm) there were very few outstanding issues with EU NTBs. (And, for that matter, there weren't that many with the US.)
Almost all the NTB issues related to India, China and Japan,
We're going to deal with the aftermath of the locals/devolved/London Mayoral elections, which London apart might be very sub optimal for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour, and the focus shifts onto Labour, you'll expect calls for a leadership challenge.
But equally we might jump straight into the EURef campaign.
Will Obama make you more or less likely to vote Remain?
Age 18-34:
26% more (-14), 18% less (+9)
Age 55+:
16% more (+1), 41% less (+15)
http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/157341/labour-activist-suspended-saying-israel-uses-holocaust-a-political-tool’