If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
And as you say, most of those people are probably indulging in post-hoc rationalisation having decided on nebulous reasons months ago. This is to some extent Remain's problem, remaining isn't visceral, to its going to be hard to motivate voters. 6p a day isnt going to motivate the most parsimonious of voters.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
Incidentally regarding Turkey-Cyprus. Reunification talks started again last year, and are making (slow) progress, so I wouldn't count it out completely.
Incidentally regarding Turkey-Cyprus. Reunification talks started again last year, and are making (slow) progress, so I wouldn't count it out completely.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
And who doesn't think that's a moveable feast... anyone with a slightly sceptical view of the EU would believe that could happen. Eurocrats toppled two elected governments to save the Euro and change border rules willy-willy as expediency demands.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
And who doesn't think that's a moveable feast... anyone with a slightly sceptical view of the EU would believe that could happen. Eurocrats toppled two elected governments to save the Euro and change border rules willy-willy as expediency demands.
But then see the previous post about the veto/referenda that would be invoked.
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
There are direct and indirect costs. Clearly a direct £25 a year is not going to move many voters. However, loss of full access to the single market may mean a lot more than that in terms of growth, tax take, job creation and job security. For our company, it risks pushing up the cost of doing business in Europe. That will have a knock-on effect for our overall plans. We either slow down expansion or we focus on doing it out of our HK office. Either way we are less likely to build our UK operation. That will have economic consequences for all of us based in the UK. And we will not be the only ones.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
And who doesn't think that's a moveable feast... anyone with a slightly sceptical view of the EU would believe that could happen. Eurocrats toppled two elected governments to save the Euro and change border rules willy-willy as expediency demands.
Which two governments were toppled by the Eurocrats?
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
And who doesn't think that's a moveable feast... anyone with a slightly sceptical view of the EU would believe that could happen. Eurocrats toppled two elected governments to save the Euro and change border rules willy-willy as expediency demands.
Which two governments were toppled by the Eurocrats?
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Incidentally regarding Turkey-Cyprus. Reunification talks started again last year, and are making (slow) progress, so I wouldn't count it out completely.
If we want to reach a solution this year, continued Cyprus talks need to be faster and more productive, says Akinci
This must be one of the last divided places in Europe these days, surely?
Not formally divided but, er, Spain has always been divided, ask the Catalans and the Basques. Belguim can't form a govt, Former Yugoslavia is at daggers with each other and everyone hates the Germans. Oh, and the Irish, north and south don't get on.
To give Northern Cyprus its official name, it is; The Land Occupied by the Turkish Army.
Incidentally regarding Turkey-Cyprus. Reunification talks started again last year, and are making (slow) progress, so I wouldn't count it out completely.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
And who doesn't think that's a moveable feast... anyone with a slightly sceptical view of the EU would believe that could happen. Eurocrats toppled two elected governments to save the Euro and change border rules willy-willy as expediency demands.
Which two governments were toppled by the Eurocrats?
The one in Italy, for sure?
Did they actually topple it? Berlusconi basically dug himself into a deep, dark hole, didn't he?
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
There are direct and indirect costs. Clearly a direct £25 a year is not going to move many voters. However, loss of full access to the single market may mean a lot more than that in terms of growth, tax take, job creation and job security. For our company, it risks pushing up the cost of doing business in Europe. That will have a knock-on effect for our overall plans. We either slow down expansion or we focus on doing it out of our HK office. Either way we are less likely to build our UK operation. That will have economic consequences for all of us based in the UK. And we will not be the only ones.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
I think Mike wants the articles to be provocative. What better way than to make them all pro-Remain?
Also, TSE is posting this since he hasn't even bothered finishing his magnum opus AV thread.. poor show indeed.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
And who doesn't think that's a moveable feast... anyone with a slightly sceptical view of the EU would believe that could happen. Eurocrats toppled two elected governments to save the Euro and change border rules willy-willy as expediency demands.
Which two governments were toppled by the Eurocrats?
The one in Italy, for sure?
Did they actually topple it? Berlusconi basically dug himself into a deep, dark hole, didn't he?
That was the narrative. I'm reading up on the wiki, apparently the entire cabinet was unelected. That'd be like Cameron sacking all his ministers and running the whole show from the Lords.
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
There are direct and indirect costs. Clearly a direct £25 a year is not going to move many voters. However, loss of full access to the single market may mean a lot more than that in terms of growth, tax take, job creation and job security. For our company, it risks pushing up the cost of doing business in Europe. That will have a knock-on effect for our overall plans. We either slow down expansion or we focus on doing it out of our HK office. Either way we are less likely to build our UK operation. That will have economic consequences for all of us based in the UK. And we will not be the only ones.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
I think immigration trumps all. That's why Leave is likely to win on a low turnout.
Good morning all According to The Sunday Times, Labour have lost 8 percentage points to the Tories in the last 3 days, directly due to the bubbling anti-semitic civil war now going on.
I've just got up and frantically looking for the poll.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
And who doesn't think that's a moveable feast... anyone with a slightly sceptical view of the EU would believe that could happen. Eurocrats toppled two elected governments to save the Euro and change border rules willy-willy as expediency demands.
But then see the previous post about the veto/referenda that would be invoked.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!</
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell <s>parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
And who doesn't think that's a moveable feast... anyone with a slightly sceptical view of the EU would believe that could happen. Eurocrats toppled two elected governments to save the Euro and change border rules willy-willy as expediency demands.
Which two governments were toppled by the Eurocrats?
The one in Italy, for sure?
Did they actually topple it? Berlusconi basically dug himself into a deep, dark hole, didn't he?
That was the narrative. I'm reading up on the wiki, apparently the entire cabinet was unelected. That'd be like Cameron sacking all his ministers and running the whole show from the Lords.
It's a narrative, for sure. I don't think Italian politics is directly comparable to ours.
Good morning all According to The Sunday Times, Labour have lost 8 percentage points to the Tories in the last 3 days, directly due to the bubbling anti-semitic civil war now going on.
I've just got up and frantically looking for the poll.
Hopefully not too tired from your birthday celebrations!
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Incidentally regarding Turkey-Cyprus. Reunification talks started again last year, and are making (slow) progress, so I wouldn't count it out completely.
Good morning all According to The Sunday Times, Labour have lost 8 percentage points to the Tories in the last 3 days, directly due to the bubbling anti-semitic civil war now going on.
I've just got up and frantically looking for the poll.
Hopefully not too tired from your birthday celebrations!
Incidentally regarding Turkey-Cyprus. Reunification talks started again last year, and are making (slow) progress, so I wouldn't count it out completely.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
F1: hmm. Reading on Twitter (from proper accounts) that Hamilton now has two reprimands. A third earns a 10 place grid penalty. And his rate of engine death means he'll have to take more before the season ends, almost certainly, which will also cause a grid penalty (probably 10 places).
Good morning all According to The Sunday Times, Labour have lost 8 percentage points to the Tories in the last 3 days, directly due to the bubbling anti-semitic civil war now going on.
I've just got up and frantically looking for the poll.
Hopefully not too tired from your birthday celebrations!
Good morning all According to The Sunday Times, Labour have lost 8 percentage points to the Tories in the last 3 days, directly due to the bubbling anti-semitic civil war now going on.
I've just got up and frantically looking for the poll.
Hopefully not too tired from your birthday celebrations!
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Or at least economic factors are a more socially acceptable justification to tell the nice lady on the telephone.
Good morning all According to The Sunday Times, Labour have lost 8 percentage points to the Tories in the last 3 days, directly due to the bubbling anti-semitic civil war now going on.
I've just got up and frantically looking for the poll.
Hopefully not too tired from your birthday celebrations!
F1: hmm. Reading on Twitter (from proper accounts) that Hamilton now has two reprimands. A third earns a 10 place grid penalty. And his rate of engine death means he'll have to take more before the season ends, almost certainly, which will also cause a grid penalty (probably 10 places).
Morning Morris, I know nothing about F1, but if an engine fails it's always the drivers fault and not the manufacturer?
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Quite - what an interesting thread that would be.
Those GE2015 Labour voters rejected Cameron and Osborne and the economic argument did not sway them. It did sway others, but that is not the electoral group that is in play. If voters can choose Labour at GE2015 after all the economic arguments, why would the economic argument sway those voters in 2016? It is of course difficult for those who are Cameron Conservatives, or Labour metrosexuals or Lib Dems to understand. This is about Labour voters outside London. Also, voters that are not young.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Do you expect visa-free travel between the EU and the UK post-Brexit?
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Quite - what an interesting thread that would be.
Those GE2015 Labour voters rejected Cameron and Osborne and the economic argument did not sway them. It did sway others, but that is not the electoral group that is in play. If voters can choose Labour at GE2015 after all the economic arguments, why would the economic argument sway those voters in 2016? It is of course difficult for those who are Cameron Conservatives, or Labour metrosexuals or Lib Dems to understand. This is about Labour voters outside London. Also, voters that are not young.
Labour favours Remain too. The reasons are different, but the end result is the same.
I think you are drawing a false conclusion here - it's unproven.
In a general election, the economy looms large - it's a critical factor in determining voting. What we don't know is whether the economy plays as strongly in an issue like this.
I don't know - but I suspect - that voters who are most focused on the economy rather than "higher order" stuff [I think that was what @AlistairMeeks called it) are the C1/C2 - precisely those who suffer most from immigration.
What does the polling on the most important factors in determining a referendum vote say?
F1: hmm. Reading on Twitter (from proper accounts) that Hamilton now has two reprimands. A third earns a 10 place grid penalty. And his rate of engine death means he'll have to take more before the season ends, almost certainly, which will also cause a grid penalty (probably 10 places).
Morning Morris, I know nothing about F1, but if an engine fails it's always the drivers fault and not the manufacturer?
Mike, you don't want to know anything about F1 - unless, of course, you've taken stock of your life and concluded that you're not sad and pitiful enough
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Do you expect visa-free travel between the EU and the UK post-Brexit?
Its irrelevant. Even if there is we won't be the first safe country so Turkish origin asylum claims won't be our problem. I expect visa free travel, but not visa free residency, as between most modern countries, you can travel to the USA without a visa on a British passport, staying for more than 6 months is slightly more demanding, I would hope we would be in a similar place.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
You are right turnout is key to Labour voters. Turning out for Cameron and Osborne to endorse more immigration. Oh yes that looks like a certainty ... ?
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
And who doesn't think that's a moveable feast... anyone with a slightly sceptical view of the EU would believe that could happen. Eurocrats toppled two elected governments to save the Euro and change border rules willy-willy as expediency demands.
But then see the previous post about the veto/referenda that would be invoked.
A "technical" change in visa rules isn't a fundamental change in the powers of the EU.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
You are right turnout is key to Labour voters. Turning out for Cameron and Osborne to endorse more immigration. Oh yes that looks like a certainty ... ?
I think the idea that a certain proportion of particular "old labour" isn't going to turn out specifically to give Camborne a kicking is optimistic.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
And who doesn't think that's a moveable feast... anyone with a slightly sceptical view of the EU would believe that could happen. Eurocrats toppled two elected governments to save the Euro and change border rules willy-willy as expediency demands.
But then see the previous post about the veto/referenda that would be invoked.
A "technical" change in visa rules isn't a fundamental change in the powers of the EU.
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
There are direct and indirect costs. Clearly a direct £25 a year is not going to move many voters. However, loss of full access to the single market may mean a lot more than that in terms of growth, tax take, job creation and job security. For our company, it risks pushing up the cost of doing business in Europe. That will have a knock-on effect for our overall plans. We either slow down expansion or we focus on doing it out of our HK office. Either way we are less likely to build our UK operation. That will have economic consequences for all of us based in the UK. And we will not be the only ones.
Although, don't forget, that it will lead to an increased presence in one of the most attractive future markets, which should - provided you execute well - lead to stronger long-term growth prospects and higher remittances to the UK.
So a short term dislocation as you re-orientate, and then the gap will close.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
And who doesn't think that's a moveable feast... anyone with a slightly sceptical view of the EU would believe that could happen. Eurocrats toppled two elected governments to save the Euro and change border rules willy-willy as expediency demands.
But then see the previous post about the veto/referenda that would be invoked.
A "technical" change in visa rules isn't a fundamental change in the powers of the EU.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Quite - what an interesting thread that would be.
Those GE2015 Labour voters rejected Cameron and Osborne and the economic argument did not sway them. It did sway others, but that is not the electoral group that is in play. If voters can choose Labour at GE2015 after all the economic arguments, why would the economic argument sway those voters in 2016? It is of course difficult for those who are Cameron Conservatives, or Labour metrosexuals or Lib Dems to understand. This is about Labour voters outside London. Also, voters that are not young.
In this poll Lab voters were 68% absolutely certain to vote, compared to 73% of kippers. The highest certainty to vote was in the London and Scotland. 60% of Remainers and 62% of Leavers were absolutely certain to vote.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Or at least economic factors are a more socially acceptable justification to tell the nice lady on the telephone.
The % of Will Not Say rather than simple Don't Know makes me wonder. Are those similar to the numbers experienced in SIndy? And how did they break for Yes/No? Trying to unpick what people really think is impossibly hard for the pollsters.
Will therebe any Lib Dems to coalesce with? And if there are would they want to tie themselves to Welsh Labour's sinking ship?
He's forecasting just two - but holding the balance of power. It's an odd article. Maybe someone will find it reported elsewhere.
Labour and Plaid is the more relalistic coalition. Lib Dems with 1 or zero seats is a possibility.
It's nailed on. Labour/Plaid. Plaid under perform versus opinion polls as do Labour, but they are two peas in a pod and they will definitely get majority between them. Unless Jezza makes that trip to the valleys before Thursday.
Will therebe any Lib Dems to coalesce with? And if there are would they want to tie themselves to Welsh Labour's sinking ship?
He's forecasting just two - but holding the balance of power. It's an odd article. Maybe someone will find it reported elsewhere.
Labour and Plaid is the more relalistic coalition. Lib Dems with 1 or zero seats is a possibility.
Wasn’t there an article somewhere recently advocating that Labour voters in S. Wales, where labour are likely to have most of the seats, should vote Plaid in the Regional list ro ensure maximum possible Left seats in the Assembly?
F1: hmm. Reading on Twitter (from proper accounts) that Hamilton now has two reprimands. A third earns a 10 place grid penalty. And his rate of engine death means he'll have to take more before the season ends, almost certainly, which will also cause a grid penalty (probably 10 places).
Morning Morris, I know nothing about F1, but if an engine fails it's always the drivers fault and not the manufacturer?
Mike, you don't want to know anything about F1 - unless, of course, you've taken stock of your life and concluded that you're not sad and pitiful enough
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Do you expect visa-free travel between the EU and the UK post-Brexit?
Its irrelevant. Even if there is we won't be the first safe country so Turkish origin asylum claims won't be our problem. I expect visa free travel, but not visa free residency, as between most modern countries, you can travel to the USA without a visa on a British passport, staying for more than 6 months is slightly more demanding, I would hope we would be in a similar place.
So a lot more illegal immigration, below minimum wage cash-in-hand employment and a lower tax take.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
And who doesn't think that's a moveable feast... anyone with a slightly sceptical view of the EU would believe that could happen. Eurocrats toppled two elected governments to save the Euro and change border rules willy-willy as expediency demands.
But then see the previous post about the veto/referenda that would be invoked.
A "technical" change in visa rules isn't a fundamental change in the powers of the EU.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Turkey is a very, very big black hole. Essentially, Turkey = all arabs, rich and poor, terrorist or not, homophobic or...actually homophobic, sexist etc. And shit coffee. Europe will be engulfed by Arabs. A completely stupid thing top do, to let in the people that most hate our way of life.
Good morning all According to The Sunday Times, Labour have lost 8 percentage points to the Tories in the last 3 days, directly due to the bubbling anti-semitic civil war now going on.
I've just got up and frantically looking for the poll.
Hopefully not too tired from your birthday celebrations!
Best analogy that I can think of is a bunch of people who:
(a) had a row with their other half and stormed off to get hideously drunk (b) woke up the next morning and realised just what they had got into bed with (c) slunk home, guiltily...
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
You are right turnout is key to Labour voters. Turning out for Cameron and Osborne to endorse more immigration. Oh yes that looks like a certainty ... ?
I think the idea that a certain proportion of particular "old labour" isn't going to turn out specifically to give Camborne a kicking is optimistic.
A friend of mine who's Old Labour is using kicking Cameron as his reason for voting Leave. I think it's a figleaf for his own preference, but it's a good figleaf.
EDIT re the local elections - quite a few Labour members saying in The Times that they won't vote in their local elections because they refuse to endorse Corbyn's Labour over the anti-Semitism row. They may change their mind, but didn't sound like it.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Do you expect visa-free travel between the EU and the UK post-Brexit?
Its irrelevant. Even if there is we won't be the first safe country so Turkish origin asylum claims won't be our problem. I expect visa free travel, but not visa free residency, as between most modern countries, you can travel to the USA without a visa on a British passport, staying for more than 6 months is slightly more demanding, I would hope we would be in a similar place.
So a lot more illegal immigration, below minimum wage cash-in-hand employment and a lower tax take.
Only if we are stupid. Something along the Switzerland approach would pretty much kill that problem stone dead. Huge fines for employers that employ illegal immigrants, Jail time for directors of companies that repeatedly employ illegal immigrants, and nice fat incentives (residency rights) for illegal immigrants to shop their employers.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Quite - what an interesting thread that would be.
Those GE2015 Labour voters rejected Cameron and Osborne and the economic argument did not sway them. It did sway others, but that is not the electoral group that is in play. If voters can choose Labour at GE2015 after all the economic arguments, why would the economic argument sway those voters in 2016? It is of course difficult for those who are Cameron Conservatives, or Labour metrosexuals or Lib Dems to understand. This is about Labour voters outside London. Also, voters that are not young.
In this poll Lab voters were 68% absolutely certain to vote, compared to 73% of kippers. The highest certainty to vote was in the London and Scotland. 60% of Remainers and 62% of Leavers were absolutely certain to vote.
The tables do not back up your assertions.
Young voters overstate their intention to vote. It is part of their attitude to such matters. Does anyone on here seriously believe that UKIP voters will only have a turnout 5% higher than Labour ......... Kippers are the most determined of any group to vote. Just ask them on the doorstep.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Turkey is a very, very big black hole. Essentially, Turkey = all arabs, rich and poor, terrorist or not, homophobic or...actually homophobic, sexist etc. And shit coffee. Europe will be engulfed by Arabs. A completely stupid thing top do, to let in the people that most hate our way of life.
If you think Turks are Arabs, don't ever go to that part of the world. Unless you want to come back inside a wooden box.
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
There are direct and indirect costs. Clearly a direct £25 a year is not going to move many voters. However, loss of full access to the single market may mean a lot more than that in terms of growth, tax take, job creation and job security. For our company, it risks pushing up the cost of doing business in Europe. That will have a knock-on effect for our overall plans. We either slow down expansion or we focus on doing it out of our HK office. Either way we are less likely to build our UK operation. That will have economic consequences for all of us based in the UK. And we will not be the only ones.
Although, don't forget, that it will lead to an increased presence in one of the most attractive future markets, which should - provided you execute well - lead to stronger long-term growth prospects and higher remittances to the UK.
So a short term dislocation as you re-orientate, and then the gap will close.
It'll be great news for our HK office, which is already doing very well. We'll focus more in Asia and probably the US. But those based in the UK will have less to look forward to. Thus, the shareholders will be fine, but the prospects for UK employees will be less certain. That will have knock on effects.
Good morning all According to The Sunday Times, Labour have lost 8 percentage points to the Tories in the last 3 days, directly due to the bubbling anti-semitic civil war now going on.
I've just got up and frantically looking for the poll.
Hopefully not too tired from your birthday celebrations!
Best analogy that I can think of is a bunch of people who:
(a) had a row with their other half and stormed off to get hideously drunk (b) woke up the next morning and realised just what they had got into bed with (c) slunk home, guiltily...
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Turkey is a very, very big black hole. Essentially, Turkey = all arabs, rich and poor, terrorist or not, homophobic or...actually homophobic, sexist etc. And shit coffee. Europe will be engulfed by Arabs. A completely stupid thing top do, to let in the people that most hate our way of life.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Do you expect visa-free travel between the EU and the UK post-Brexit?
Yes, just like travel to continental Europe before 1973.
I still think Remain will win because of Project Fear, but I was amused by the certainty with which the Remainers were predicting £4,300. As Niels Bohr once said .... "Prediction is difficult, especially about the future." And he was talking about science not economics.
It doesn't matter because perception is all, and some 'important' people said it. It was Arnold Glasow who once said ... "The fewer the facts, the stronger the opinion."
But the aftermath may be awkward. When the economy goes through a downturn, when the EU becomes more federal and things don't get better in the EU, people will remember. It's politics and politicians that will suffer as a result. Not that Remain won, but that people lied (and that goes for both sides).
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Do you expect visa-free travel between the EU and the UK post-Brexit?
Its irrelevant. Even if there is we won't be the first safe country so Turkish origin asylum claims won't be our problem. I expect visa free travel, but not visa free residency, as between most modern countries, you can travel to the USA without a visa on a British passport, staying for more than 6 months is slightly more demanding, I would hope we would be in a similar place.
So a lot more illegal immigration, below minimum wage cash-in-hand employment and a lower tax take.
Only if we are stupid. Something along the Switzerland approach would pretty much kill that problem stone dead. Huge fines for employers that employ illegal immigrants, Jail time for directors of companies that repeatedly employ illegal immigrants, and nice fat incentives (residency rights) for illegal immigrants to shop their employers.
Switzerland has a free movement agreement with the EU, doesn't it?
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Do you expect visa-free travel between the EU and the UK post-Brexit?
Its irrelevant. Even if there is we won't be the first safe country so Turkish origin asylum claims won't be our problem.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
And who doesn't think that's a moveable feast... anyone with a slightly sceptical view of the EU would believe that could happen. Eurocrats toppled two elected governments to save the Euro and change border rules willy-willy as expediency demands.
But then see the previous post about the veto/referenda that would be invoked.
A "technical" change in visa rules isn't a fundamental change in the powers of the EU.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Do you expect visa-free travel between the EU and the UK post-Brexit?
Yes, just like travel to continental Europe before 1973.
The world has changed ever-so-slightly since 1973. People are a little more mobile than they were.
Undefined discussion subject.
Comments
Edit: Sixth? Close enough..
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
http://aa.com.tr/en/politics/turkish-cypriot-president-urges-faster-pace-for-talks/561298
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Not formally divided but, er, Spain has always been divided, ask the Catalans and the Basques. Belguim can't form a govt, Former Yugoslavia is at daggers with each other and everyone hates the Germans. Oh, and the Irish, north and south don't get on.
To give Northern Cyprus its official name, it is; The Land Occupied by the Turkish Army.
Off the top of my head:
Ireland
Catalonia
Basque Country
Tyrol
Greater Hungary
There are a few divided "nations", but mostly inside the EU, so they're not very explosive.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
Also, TSE is posting this since he hasn't even bothered finishing his magnum opus AV thread.. poor show indeed.
According to The Sunday Times, Labour have lost 8 percentage points to the Tories in the last 3 days, directly due to the bubbling anti-semitic civil war now going on.
I've just got up and frantically looking for the poll.
Here is the link - http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-26th-april-2016
Con 38 (+5)
Lab 30 (-2)
LD 5 (nc)
UKIP 15 (-2)
Greens 4 (-1)
Are you including the Tory benches in that? :-)
Unrelated - but not sure what is up with the quote feature today. Seems to be buggering up on a more regular basis.
I, for one, am deeply concerned at being £43,000 a year worse off.
In less propagandist news, my pre-race piece, including a random stab in the dark of a tip, is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/russia-pre-race-2016.html
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
In a general election, the economy looms large - it's a critical factor in determining voting. What we don't know is whether the economy plays as strongly in an issue like this.
I don't know - but I suspect - that voters who are most focused on the economy rather than "higher order" stuff [I think that was what @AlistairMeeks called it) are the C1/C2 - precisely those who suffer most from immigration.
What does the polling on the most important factors in determining a referendum vote say?
I can see @TSE's argument already...
and leftie political bastions like Politico have got the sh*ts.
https://twitter.com/politico/status/726667782834806785
So a short term dislocation as you re-orientate, and then the gap will close.
Mr. K, it's just bad luck, of which Hamilton has had a huge amount this season already.
The tables do not back up your assertions.
(a) had a row with their other half and stormed off to get hideously drunk
(b) woke up the next morning and realised just what they had got into bed with
(c) slunk home, guiltily...
EDIT re the local elections - quite a few Labour members saying in The Times that they won't vote in their local elections because they refuse to endorse Corbyn's Labour over the anti-Semitism row. They may change their mind, but didn't sound like it.
It doesn't matter because perception is all, and some 'important' people said it. It was Arnold Glasow who once said ... "The fewer the facts, the stronger the opinion."
But the aftermath may be awkward. When the economy goes through a downturn, when the EU becomes more federal and things don't get better in the EU, people will remember. It's politics and politicians that will suffer as a result. Not that Remain won, but that people lied (and that goes for both sides).
Referenda can be useful but not always.