The Daily Telegraph understands that Mr Trump is likely to visit the UK in August for a Republican fundraising drive in London, when he is also expected to meet Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader.
Zac Goldsmith is at 14\1 (midprice) at Betfair, and I think I'm going to grab some more. Or to be exact, I'm going to lay Sadiq Khan. Could this really be the first time in five London mayoral elections that the Evening Standard backs the losing candidate? I doubt it.
I know London has got a non-white majority, but is that also true of the London electorate? And what about likely voters?
So I will apply some of the same thoughts I'm applying to the EU referendum, and predict that quite a lot of people will send a message at the polling stations that the sampled few haven't sent to pollsters.
A Tory absolute majority in the Commons was at 16\1 after the polls closed in the general election last year.
Zac Goldsmith is at 14\1 (midprice) at Betfair, and I think I'm going to grab some more. Or to be exact, I'm going to lay Sadiq Khan. Could this really be the first time in five London mayoral elections that the Evening Standard backs the losing candidate? I doubt it.
I know London has got a non-white majority, but is that also true of the London electorate? And what about likely voters?
So I will apply some of the same thoughts I'm applying to the EU referendum, and predict that quite a lot of people will send a message at the polling stations that the sampled few haven't sent to pollsters.
If khan doesn't win, all the pollsters should really just pack up & go out of business asap.
MPs say that Labour’s inept response to anti-Semitism has strengthened the moral case for challenging Corbyn. One shadow cabinet minister spoke of how the fear of “enormous reputational damage” had pushed him to the brink of resignation.
Junior doctors have agreed to temporarily hold off calling further strikes to enable fresh talks to take place with the government, triggering hopes that the long-running pay dispute could finally be heading towards resolution.
The British Medical Association’s renewed willingness to talk follows a plea from medical leaders for a five-day truce to allow the doctors’ union and ministers to try to reach agreement on outstanding issues and so avoid further walkouts.
The BMA’s response to the initiative prompted cautious optimism, but it was still unclear whether the health secretary, Jeremy Hunt, would give enough ground to allow negotiations to resume after a three-month break. Unless he does, further strikes look inevitable.
The Daily Telegraph understands that Mr Trump is likely to visit the UK in August for a Republican fundraising drive in London, when he is also expected to meet Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader.
MPs say that Labour’s inept response to anti-Semitism has strengthened the moral case for challenging Corbyn. One shadow cabinet minister spoke of how the fear of “enormous reputational damage” had pushed him to the brink of resignation.
Where exactly is he planning to leverage his reputation?
The Daily Telegraph understands that Mr Trump is likely to visit the UK in August for a Republican fundraising drive in London, when he is also expected to meet Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader.
The Daily Telegraph understands that Mr Trump is likely to visit the UK in August for a Republican fundraising drive in London, when he is also expected to meet Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader.
MPs say that Labour’s inept response to anti-Semitism has strengthened the moral case for challenging Corbyn. One shadow cabinet minister spoke of how the fear of “enormous reputational damage” had pushed him to the brink of resignation.
Brink of, but not actual. And there was already a case for challenging him npbut they lacked support to try it and still do. Tough times for such people.
The Daily Telegraph understands that Mr Trump is likely to visit the UK in August for a Republican fundraising drive in London, when he is also expected to meet Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader.
Also, if Khan doesn't win I would hope that we could send London's voting population en masse packing and replace them with something far more sensible. Sadly, my sister, her family and other friends would have to go, but a price worth paying.
Zac Goldsmith is at 14\1 (midprice) at Betfair, and I think I'm going to grab some more. Or to be exact, I'm going to lay Sadiq Khan. Could this really be the first time in five London mayoral elections that the Evening Standard backs the losing candidate? I doubt it.
I know London has got a non-white majority, but is that also true of the London electorate? And what about likely voters?
So I will apply some of the same thoughts I'm applying to the EU referendum, and predict that quite a lot of people will send a message at the polling stations that the sampled few haven't sent to pollsters.
If khan doesn't win, all the pollsters should really just pack up & go out of business asap.
MPs say that Labour’s inept response to anti-Semitism has strengthened the moral case for challenging Corbyn. One shadow cabinet minister spoke of how the fear of “enormous reputational damage” had pushed him to the brink of resignation.
Junior doctors have agreed to temporarily hold off calling further strikes to enable fresh talks to take place with the government, triggering hopes that the long-running pay dispute could finally be heading towards resolution.
The British Medical Association’s renewed willingness to talk follows a plea from medical leaders for a five-day truce to allow the doctors’ union and ministers to try to reach agreement on outstanding issues and so avoid further walkouts.
The BMA’s response to the initiative prompted cautious optimism, but it was still unclear whether the health secretary, Jeremy Hunt, would give enough ground to allow negotiations to resume after a three-month break. Unless he does, further strikes look inevitable.
Junior doctors have agreed to temporarily hold off calling further strikes to enable fresh talks to take place with the government, triggering hopes that the long-running pay dispute could finally be heading towards resolution.
The British Medical Association’s renewed willingness to talk follows a plea from medical leaders for a five-day truce to allow the doctors’ union and ministers to try to reach agreement on outstanding issues and so avoid further walkouts.
The BMA’s response to the initiative prompted cautious optimism, but it was still unclear whether the health secretary, Jeremy Hunt, would give enough ground to allow negotiations to resume after a three-month break. Unless he does, further strikes look inevitable.
I don't think so. The BMA JDC meets on Saturday to decide their next step. They normally give a couple of weeks notice of a strike, particularly if emergency cover is once again included.
The rumour that I hear is that the next strike will last a week including emergency cover, starting June 6th, ending on the 13th.
Another interesting development is that an advert has appeared for 300 registered doctors for pre-registration FY1 posts (i.e. not ones suitable for post registration docs). In practice these would be foreign doctors filling the unfillable posts.
MPs say that Labour’s inept response to anti-Semitism has strengthened the moral case for challenging Corbyn. One shadow cabinet minister spoke of how the fear of “enormous reputational damage” had pushed him to the brink of resignation.
But not beyond the brink. Happy to wound: afraid to kill. Or perhaps, happy to mouth off anonymously, afraid to do anything public.
Labour: crap at plotting.
It's at the point these continually moaning MPs might face a bill from journalists they moan to, on the basis really the journalist is acting as an unofficial therapist more than anything else. Now, mr labour old guard, tell me what beastly mr Corbyn did now? How did it make you feel and what would daddy, I mean, mr Blair think of it?
Obviously I'm being unfair, but at after a point surely press moAning is pointless and unintere.sting.
Also, if Khan doesn't win I would hope that we could send London's voting population en masse packing and replace them with something far more sensible. Sadly, my sister, her family and other friends would have to go, but a price worth paying.
London's population already chose an Evening Standard-backed right-wing Europhobe, twice.
- Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire – one of several moderate senators facing a bumpy re-election with Trump at the top of the party ballot in November – said she would be “supporting, but not endorsing” his candidacy.
I have huge compassion for the junior doctors. Today they are faced with shyte shovelling the crumbling edifice that has become the NHS, and tomorrow they are faced with a tsunami of technological adaptations that will sweep away the need for trained medics en masse.
In thirty years the complexion of healthcare in modern economies will change beyond all recognition. These poor junior medics will be but casualties in the revolution.
Junior doctors have agreed to temporarily hold off calling further strikes to enable fresh talks to take place with the government, triggering hopes that the long-running pay dispute could finally be heading towards resolution.
The British Medical Association’s renewed willingness to talk follows a plea from medical leaders for a five-day truce to allow the doctors’ union and ministers to try to reach agreement on outstanding issues and so avoid further walkouts.
The BMA’s response to the initiative prompted cautious optimism, but it was still unclear whether the health secretary, Jeremy Hunt, would give enough ground to allow negotiations to resume after a three-month break. Unless he does, further strikes look inevitable.
I don't think so. The BMA JDC meets on Saturday to decide their next step. They normally give a couple of weeks notice of a strike, particularly if emergency cover is once again included.
The rumour that I hear is that the next strike will last a week including emergency cover, starting June 6th, ending on the 13th.
Another interesting development is that an advert has appeared for 300 registered doctors for pre-registration FY1 posts (i.e. not ones suitable for post registration docs). In practice these would be foreign doctors filling the unfillable posts.
Fair point, and exceptionally well made I might add.
But third time- unlucky. We could swop Londoners for the exodus coming from the Sahara- that would certainly improve our gene pool somewhat, especially if we managed to get rid of all Millwall and Chelsea fans in the bargain.
Also, if Khan doesn't win I would hope that we could send London's voting population en masse packing and replace them with something far more sensible. Sadly, my sister, her family and other friends would have to go, but a price worth paying.
London's population already chose an Evening Standard-backed right-wing Europhobe, twice.
"Jewish man driven from home by anti-Semitic thugs who shouted ‘Hitler is king’"
"The 52-year-old claims:
He was spat at in public places at least 42 times. Suffered verbal assaults in the street at least 65 times. An Asian man shouted ‘You die soon for invading our lands’ near West Ham Lane, Stratford, in December 2012. Another man told him ‘Hitler was king’ and to ‘get away from here’ while walking through East Ham the following month. Mr Shalom was physically attacked at least 30 times, including being punched and kicked by five yobs on the floor of Canning Town bus station in December 2011. In April 2012 he says he was hit round the head with a bag outside West Ham Tube station by a man shouting ‘You’re an insult to Allah’. In August 2012 Mr Shalom said he was pushed against the wall of Wilkinsons store in Stratford’s Broadway by a man shouting in his face about ‘murdering Jews in apartheid Israel’. In November 2012 he had hot coffee poured over his head outside Sainsbury’s in the Stratford Centre. Mr Shalom was threatened with violence at least 17 times on the same day as he went to college. In August 2010 he saw a man in his back garden who made a swiping motion, as if to cut his throat, before running off. His home in Plaistow was attacked at least 26 times. Somebody tried to break into his house through a first-floor bathroom window in August 2010 and had to be fought off. Another man tried to torch the metal gate outside his front door a year later. Between May and November 2011 he only left his house voluntarily to go to the synagogue."
BBC Newsnight @BBCNewsnight Steven Woolfe UKIP MEP: 100,000 children in UK tonight will feel like they're being put to the back of the queue #newsnight
"Nearly one-quarter of white men with only a high school diploma aren't working. Many of these men, age 25 to 64, aren't just unemployed ... they aren't even looking for a job, according to federal data."
Re Trump: I spent a few weeks with my in-laws in California (black, middle class Democrats; my wife is - pardon the pun - the black sheep of the family as the lone Republican). Several thoughts:
1. We underestimate how many people hate Hilary. "Unpopular" does not describe half of it. My sister-in-law, who is Democrat as they come, is voting for Trump because she hates Hilary; many of her friends feel the same; her son is pro-Sanders - he won't vote Trump but doubtful he will vote Hillary. Hillary has voting blocks but women under 45 do not have that bond.
2. Not all Hispanics are the same. It is a lazy assumption. A Mexican immigrant on the West Coast and a Cuban-American in Florida are not the same. Notice Trump attacks "The Mexicans". Trump knows there are more votes in attacking Central American immigration than in standing up for them (he won't win California and he can lose Nevada). But that does not mean he has given up on the vote in Florida.
3. I was impressed by Trump's acumen: while I was there, two big political issues were North Carolina's transgender law on bathrooms and black anti-slave campaigner Harriet Tubman on the $20 bill. Trump opposed the first and wanted to keep Andrew Jackson on the front of the $20 bill. Why? The transgender issue fires up Sanders' supporters; as a few of them see Hillary as a bigger issue than Trump why alienate them? But Trump realises he will not get African-American voters re the $20 bill but can appeal further to the WWC who feel political correctness has gone too far.
4. Beware of "Shy Trumpsters": an anecdote - my wife's 21 yr old niece (black, at university in San Francisco) is voting Trump; many of her friends are doing the same but will not say it publicly. We have heard others say the same.
Re Trump's road to 270 electoral votes:
1. I cannot see Trump losing any of Romney's states. The furore over the transgender law and companies boycotting NC has galvanised Republicans there. In Arizona, the Mexican Wall will win votes. That is 201.
2. Next is Florida. Trump knows the state like the back of his hand; his club was the first in Palm Beach to admit Jewish people, gays and Hispanics when all other clubs barred them; his daughters married into the Jewish faith so that will help him; and many of Florida's Hispanics do not associate themselves as Mexicans. He wins, he is at 230.
3. Then the Rustbelt. Hillary has underperformed polls. Given his anti-free trade stance, Trump would look for two of Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin. Let's say Ohio only, that is 248.
4. After that, NJ. Trump's highest scores are in White, Catholic states, which is NJ to a tee. Hillary goes down in NJ like a bag of sick. That is 262. He has a decent chance in NH - so 266.
5. All he needs then is one other tate to flip - Iowa e.g. and then there are states like PA and even NY which cannot be ruled out.
"Jewish man driven from home by anti-Semitic thugs who shouted ‘Hitler is king’"
"The 52-year-old claims:
He was spat at in public places at least 42 times. Suffered verbal assaults in the street at least 65 times. An Asian man shouted ‘You die soon for invading our lands’ near West Ham Lane, Stratford, in December 2012. Another man told him ‘Hitler was king’ and to ‘get away from here’ while walking through East Ham the following month. Mr Shalom was physically attacked at least 30 times, including being punched and kicked by five yobs on the floor of Canning Town bus station in December 2011. In April 2012 he says he was hit round the head with a bag outside West Ham Tube station by a man shouting ‘You’re an insult to Allah’. In August 2012 Mr Shalom said he was pushed against the wall of Wilkinsons store in Stratford’s Broadway by a man shouting in his face about ‘murdering Jews in apartheid Israel’. In November 2012 he had hot coffee poured over his head outside Sainsbury’s in the Stratford Centre. Mr Shalom was threatened with violence at least 17 times on the same day as he went to college. In August 2010 he saw a man in his back garden who made a swiping motion, as if to cut his throat, before running off. His home in Plaistow was attacked at least 26 times. Somebody tried to break into his house through a first-floor bathroom window in August 2010 and had to be fought off. Another man tried to torch the metal gate outside his front door a year later. Between May and November 2011 he only left his house voluntarily to go to the synagogue."
Oh my God. This makes me sick, as Muslims we need to do much more to combat anti-semitism but I don't know what to do? People need to make a distinction between the Isreali government and Jews in general but how do actually go about telling nutters this is not O.K I honestly don't know the answer. Maybe i could ask the Isoc at my uni to give a talk or something?
Interesting front page picture of the telegraph tomorrow!
It's cheeky!
What am I missing?
We're not even allowed to hint at what might be amusing and naughty about it.
Is there an angle to it?
Dictionary.com defines "irony" as "a technique of indicating, as through character or plot development, an intention or attitude opposite to that which is actually or ostensibly stated."
The Daily Telegraph understands that Mr Trump is likely to visit the UK in August for a Republican fundraising drive in London, when he is also expected to meet Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader.
FPT on the BMG poll that Plato posted: Remain catching up on the headline figures, but certainty to vote is bad - Leave 12 points ahead among those who are absolutely certain. Note also that the poll shows Labour in the lead. The poll is not especially fresh: Apr 22-26.
nunu - thanks. It's difficult, and just because you're Muslim doesn't mean you're responsible for these nutters. Perhaps ask the imam to address it at prayers, if he hasn't already? A hoodlum who thinks he's got religious motives is more dangerous than a hoodlum who's been told that the religion doesn't countenance bullying.
Analysis of words - "deconstruction" in the postmodern literary world - requires context. Dacre's obsession on "Piggate" cannot be understood without knowing that he hates Cameron and wishes to destroy him. News International's Euroscepticism derives not from ethics but from Murdoch's desire to control Downing Street. Context is all: the page must be placed in contradistinction to other pages to derive a wider meaning.
Meaning may be encoded not within a page of text but by its relation to other pages. The John Carpenter film "In The Mouth of Madness" has its main character infer meaning by placing the covers of disparate novels next to each other. Douglas Adam's holistic detective Dirk Gently similarly places seemingly disconnected pages next to each other. The Beat Generation understood this technique, placing pages in a box so that the meaning was encompassed not within the words themselves but by the relation of one page to another. Pages exist not on isolation but as part of a greater world and often wisdom may be found not by considering the contents of a page, but on comparing it to other similar pages.
FPT on the BMG poll that Plato posted: Remain catching up on the headline figures, but certainty to vote is bad - Leave 12 points ahead among those who are absolutely certain. Note also that the poll shows Labour in the lead. The poll is not especially fresh: Apr 22-26.
nunu - thanks. It's difficult, and just because you're Muslim doesn't mean you're responsible for these nutters. Perhaps ask the imam to address it at prayers, if he hasn't already? A hoodlum who thinks he's got religious motives is more dangerous than a hoodlum who's been told that the religion doesn't countenance bullying.
I know lets all write/e mail Khan saying as mayor he should make sure there are no "no go areas in London for anyone except extremiststs. We can do it pb.com if we don't considering how engaged we are no one else will.
The article doesn't make sense in relation to Torbay.
Torbay already has an elected mayor (a Conservative), and his current term runs to 2019. The referendum is about whether to stick with that after 2019. It's probably right that Sanders would have a decent chance in 2019 if nominated, but that's some way off. The author of the article seems to think the referendum is about introducing an elected mayor and that the election would be imminent... neither is correct.
Bonneville presents us with an egoist whose faith in untrammelled will leads to self-delusion It is a point that Bonneville makes with unerring precision.....those in power suppress, or distort, truth...
Hi Plato. I wonder what turnout in the American Presidential elections is going to be like this time around if its Trump vs Clinton? I have some very depressed relatives and friends in Indiana today, one of them has already stated that they intend to abstain for first time rather than vote for either of those candidates.
Bonneville presents us with an egoist whose faith in untrammelled will leads to self-delusion It is a point that Bonneville makes with unerring precision.....those in power suppress, or distort, truth...
Hi Plato. I wonder what turnout in the American Presidential elections is going to be like this time around if its Trump vs Clinton? I have some very depressed relatives and friends in Indiana today, one of them has already stated that they intend to abstain for first time rather than vote for either of those candidates.
Hello stranger - I wonder how enthusiastic or otherwise the American people were at this stage in 1980 when it became clear that their next President was likely to be a similarly aged former rather cheesy "B" Movie actor. Yet by popular acclaim, in the event he turned out to be one of the finest Presidents the nation has elected, certainly in modern times.
Hi Plato. I wonder what turnout in the American Presidential elections is going to be like this time around if its Trump vs Clinton? I have some very depressed relatives and friends in Indiana today, one of them has already stated that they intend to abstain for first time rather than vote for either of those candidates.
Hello stranger - I wonder how enthusiastic or otherwise the American people were at this stage in 1980 when it became clear that their next President was likely to be a similarly aged former rather cheesy "B" Movie actor. Yet by popular acclaim, in the event he turned out to be one of the finest Presidents the nation has elected, certainly in modern times.
Hi PfP, funny you should bring up a certain "B" movie actor... I may have recently been heard saying that the Republicans have failed yet again to find that 'genuinely nice guy' Republican that could unite and galvanise the Republican vote.
Bonneville presents us with an egoist whose faith in untrammelled will leads to self-delusion It is a point that Bonneville makes with unerring precision.....those in power suppress, or distort, truth...
Hugh Bonneville playing a champion of truth, outraged by suppression of free speech?
This is the intriguing casting down at Chichester where Mr Bonneville, fresh from his lordly turn in TV’s Downton Abbey, abandons the aura of privilege to give a watchable performance as naive, high-minded man of the people Dr Stockmann....
Nice of the Mail to regale its readership with two articles about the production of a play by Ibsen at Chichester. It's positively Reithian.
Undefined discussion subject.
Comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/05/04/0505-MATT-GALLERY-WEB-P1-large_trans++qVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.png
The Daily Telegraph understands that Mr Trump is likely to visit the UK in August for a Republican fundraising drive in London, when he is also expected to meet Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/04/david-cameron-has-no-intention-of-apologising-to-donald-trump-fo/
I know London has got a non-white majority, but is that also true of the London electorate? And what about likely voters?
So I will apply some of the same thoughts I'm applying to the EU referendum, and predict that quite a lot of people will send a message at the polling stations that the sampled few haven't sent to pollsters.
A Tory absolute majority in the Commons was at 16\1 after the polls closed in the general election last year.
I wouldn't say he'll win, but some of the loss margins seem pretty heavy.
I'd guess 47/53.
From the article -
MPs say that Labour’s inept response to anti-Semitism has strengthened the moral case for challenging Corbyn. One shadow cabinet minister spoke of how the fear of “enormous reputational damage” had pushed him to the brink of resignation.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/05/long-jeremy-corbyns-labour-opponents-are-divided-he-will-rule
Junior doctors have agreed to temporarily hold off calling further strikes to enable fresh talks to take place with the government, triggering hopes that the long-running pay dispute could finally be heading towards resolution.
The British Medical Association’s renewed willingness to talk follows a plea from medical leaders for a five-day truce to allow the doctors’ union and ministers to try to reach agreement on outstanding issues and so avoid further walkouts.
The BMA’s response to the initiative prompted cautious optimism, but it was still unclear whether the health secretary, Jeremy Hunt, would give enough ground to allow negotiations to resume after a three-month break. Unless he does, further strikes look inevitable.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/may/04/junior-doctors-agree-temporary-halt-to-strikes-in-exchange-for-talks?CMP=twt_gu
For the creative types on pbCOM, Radiohead's latest venture is outstanding
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yI2oS2hoL0k
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107728324
Labour: crap at plotting.
The rumour that I hear is that the next strike will last a week including emergency cover, starting June 6th, ending on the 13th.
Another interesting development is that an advert has appeared for 300 registered doctors for pre-registration FY1 posts (i.e. not ones suitable for post registration docs). In practice these would be foreign doctors filling the unfillable posts.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/may/04/new-day-newspaper-shut-two-months-launch-trinity-mirror
Obviously I'm being unfair, but at after a point surely press moAning is pointless and unintere.sting.
Night all.
https://twitter.com/GlasgowMurphy/status/727972679064682497
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/727972404182564864
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/04/republican-nomination-party-unity-trump
- Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire – one of several moderate senators facing a bumpy re-election with Trump at the top of the party ballot in November – said she would be “supporting, but not endorsing” his candidacy.
They've lost three out of four.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/727968099782303744
In thirty years the complexion of healthcare in modern economies will change beyond all recognition. These poor junior medics will be but casualties in the revolution.
But third time- unlucky. We could swop Londoners for the exodus coming from the Sahara- that would certainly improve our gene pool somewhat, especially if we managed to get rid of all Millwall and Chelsea fans in the bargain.
"The 52-year-old claims:
He was spat at in public places at least 42 times.
Suffered verbal assaults in the street at least 65 times.
An Asian man shouted ‘You die soon for invading our lands’ near West Ham Lane, Stratford, in December 2012.
Another man told him ‘Hitler was king’ and to ‘get away from here’ while walking through East Ham the following month.
Mr Shalom was physically attacked at least 30 times, including being punched and kicked by five yobs on the floor of Canning Town bus station in December 2011.
In April 2012 he says he was hit round the head with a bag outside West Ham Tube station by a man shouting ‘You’re an insult to Allah’.
In August 2012 Mr Shalom said he was pushed against the wall of Wilkinsons store in Stratford’s Broadway by a man shouting in his face about ‘murdering Jews in apartheid Israel’.
In November 2012 he had hot coffee poured over his head outside Sainsbury’s in the Stratford Centre.
Mr Shalom was threatened with violence at least 17 times on the same day as he went to college.
In August 2010 he saw a man in his back garden who made a swiping motion, as if to cut his throat, before running off.
His home in Plaistow was attacked at least 26 times.
Somebody tried to break into his house through a first-floor bathroom window in August 2010 and had to be fought off.
Another man tried to torch the metal gate outside his front door a year later.
Between May and November 2011 he only left his house voluntarily to go to the synagogue."
http://metro.co.uk/2016/05/04/jewish-man-driven-from-home-by-anti-semitic-thugs-who-shouted-hitler-is-king-5858636/
Steven Woolfe UKIP MEP: 100,000 children in UK tonight will feel like they're being put to the back of the queue #newsnight
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2012
"Nearly one-quarter of white men with only a high school diploma aren't working. Many of these men, age 25 to 64, aren't just unemployed ... they aren't even looking for a job, according to federal data."
http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/04/news/economy/america-left-behind-white-men/index.html
Re Trump: I spent a few weeks with my in-laws in California (black, middle class Democrats; my wife is - pardon the pun - the black sheep of the family as the lone Republican). Several thoughts:
1. We underestimate how many people hate Hilary. "Unpopular" does not describe half of it. My sister-in-law, who is Democrat as they come, is voting for Trump because she hates Hilary; many of her friends feel the same; her son is pro-Sanders - he won't vote Trump but doubtful he will vote Hillary. Hillary has voting blocks but women under 45 do not have that bond.
2. Not all Hispanics are the same. It is a lazy assumption. A Mexican immigrant on the West Coast and a Cuban-American in Florida are not the same. Notice Trump attacks "The Mexicans". Trump knows there are more votes in attacking Central American immigration than in standing up for them (he won't win California and he can lose Nevada). But that does not mean he has given up on the vote in Florida.
3. I was impressed by Trump's acumen: while I was there, two big political issues were North Carolina's transgender law on bathrooms and black anti-slave campaigner Harriet Tubman on the $20 bill. Trump opposed the first and wanted to keep Andrew Jackson on the front of the $20 bill. Why? The transgender issue fires up Sanders' supporters; as a few of them see Hillary as a bigger issue than Trump why alienate them? But Trump realises he will not get African-American voters re the $20 bill but can appeal further to the WWC who feel political correctness has gone too far.
4. Beware of "Shy Trumpsters": an anecdote - my wife's 21 yr old niece (black, at university in San Francisco) is voting Trump; many of her friends are doing the same but will not say it publicly. We have heard others say the same.
Re Trump's road to 270 electoral votes:
1. I cannot see Trump losing any of Romney's states. The furore over the transgender law and companies boycotting NC has galvanised Republicans there. In Arizona, the Mexican Wall will win votes. That is 201.
2. Next is Florida. Trump knows the state like the back of his hand; his club was the first in Palm Beach to admit Jewish people, gays and Hispanics when all other clubs barred them; his daughters married into the Jewish faith so that will help him; and many of Florida's Hispanics do not associate themselves as Mexicans. He wins, he is at 230.
3. Then the Rustbelt. Hillary has underperformed polls. Given his anti-free trade stance, Trump would look for two of Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin. Let's say Ohio only, that is 248.
4. After that, NJ. Trump's highest scores are in White, Catholic states, which is NJ to a tee. Hillary goes down in NJ like a bag of sick. That is 262. He has a decent chance in NH - so 266.
5. All he needs then is one other tate to flip - Iowa e.g. and then there are states like PA and even NY which cannot be ruled out.
Anyway, time for bed.
nunu - thanks. It's difficult, and just because you're Muslim doesn't mean you're responsible for these nutters. Perhaps ask the imam to address it at prayers, if he hasn't already? A hoodlum who thinks he's got religious motives is more dangerous than a hoodlum who's been told that the religion doesn't countenance bullying.
Meaning may be encoded not within a page of text but by its relation to other pages. The John Carpenter film "In The Mouth of Madness" has its main character infer meaning by placing the covers of disparate novels next to each other. Douglas Adam's holistic detective Dirk Gently similarly places seemingly disconnected pages next to each other. The Beat Generation understood this technique, placing pages in a box so that the meaning was encompassed not within the words themselves but by the relation of one page to another. Pages exist not on isolation but as part of a greater world and often wisdom may be found not by considering the contents of a page, but on comparing it to other similar pages.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/04/the-ugliest-pmqs-in-years-between-opportunistic-david-cameron-an/
Torbay already has an elected mayor (a Conservative), and his current term runs to 2019. The referendum is about whether to stick with that after 2019. It's probably right that Sanders would have a decent chance in 2019 if nominated, but that's some way off. The author of the article seems to think the referendum is about introducing an elected mayor and that the election would be imminent... neither is correct.
Just caught up FPT. Obviously shitty news, and my best wishes to you and your wife.
whistleblowers aren’t automatically unblemished individuals.
Bonneville presents us with an egoist whose faith in untrammelled will leads to self-delusion
It is a point that Bonneville makes with unerring precision.....those in power suppress, or distort, truth...
http://www.theguardian.com/stage/2016/may/04/an-enemy-of-the-people-review-hugh-bonneville-whistleblower-chichester-festival-theatre
Britain Elects @britainelects 1h1 hour ago
Scottish Parliament voting intention:
SNP: 48% (-2)
LAB: 22% (+1)
CON: 19% (+1)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
(via YouGov / 02 - 04 May)
Britain Elects @britainelects 1h1 hour ago
Scottish Parliament voting intention (list):
SNP: 41% (-4)
CON: 20% (+2)
LAB: 19% (-)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDEM: 6% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
(via YouGov)
Britain Elects @britainelects 1h1 hour ago
Scottish Independence poll:
Yes (pro-Indy): 41% (-)
No (pro-UK): 48% (-1)
(via YouGov / 02 - 04 May)
Britain Elects @britainelects 1h1 hour ago
Net Well/Badly ratings of...
Sturgeon: +26
Davidson: +8
Dugdale: -18
(via YouGov
Yet by popular acclaim, in the event he turned out to be one of the finest Presidents the nation has elected, certainly in modern times.
"President Vicente Fox Apologizes, Invites Trump to Mexico"
Hugh Bonneville playing a champion of truth, outraged by suppression of free speech?
This is the intriguing casting down at Chichester where Mr Bonneville, fresh from his lordly turn in TV’s Downton Abbey, abandons the aura of privilege to give a watchable performance as naive, high-minded man of the people Dr Stockmann....
Nice of the Mail to regale its readership with two articles about the production of a play by Ibsen at Chichester. It's positively Reithian.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3574244/A-cheerful-Hugh-Bonneville-heads-party-wife-celebrates-triumphant-opening-night-Chichester-Festival-Theatre.html