Labour have won the spin war, it's clear to say. Apparently losing council seats in opposition in a non-GE year isn't a bad result (not to mention Scotland). With good news for them to come in London they've won the night from a media perspective.
Albeit that this possibly solidifies Corbyns hold on the party so probably a negative in the medium-long term
Labour have won the spin war, it's clear to say. Apparently losing council seats in opposition in a non-GE year isn't a bad result (not to mention Scotland). With good news for them to come in London they've won the night from a media perspective.
Albeit that this possibly solidifies Corbyns hold on the party so probably a negative in the medium-long term
Winning the media spin battle doesn't actually help you win real elections, although some people in all the parties still haven't quite worked that out.
If Scotland does polarize long term as left/SNP/Indy versus right/Tory/unionist then that could spell extinction for SLAB. With all that this means down south...
I knew I should have kept a log of the number of times I would have occasion to say, on here, that Labour is an idea whose time has gone.
If Scotland does polarize long term as left/SNP/Indy versus right/Tory/unionist then that could spell extinction for SLAB. With all that this means down south...
The SNP will need Tory votes to get its tax-cutting budget through.
Down South hard-left Labour is irrelevant whatever happens in Scotland.
If Scotland does polarize long term as left/SNP/Indy versus right/Tory/unionist then that could spell extinction for SLAB. With all that this means down south...
As I said in the last thread, SLAB are in a similar position to the Liberals after 1920.
Are the LDs going to be behind the Greens in Scotland despite good result in constituency votes? Guess the fight back is not a full throttle one.
Overall, though I understand the reasons many think a result which allows Corbyn to carry on is ultimately worse than one so bad it forces him out, apart from Scotland, things really don't look that bad on the face of it. Faces can be misleading, they should be doing better, but with a huge London win to look forward to, and England and Wales not disasters (at least, not obviously even to layman disasters) he's fine and the party might avoid a narrative developing.
Great result for the Tories in Scotland and for Ruth Davidson, dreadful result for Labour and while the SNP have won they will be short of a majority on about 46% on the constituency ballot 42% on the list, well short of the 60% they were polling in the autumn. They will have to do a deal with the Greeens. In the locals not great for Labour but not as bad as it could have been and UKIP making progress. Labour hold on comfortably in Wales, their best results of the night. Corbyn really needs to win the London mayoral and assembly elections later though
Are the LDs going to be behind the Greens in Scotland despite good result in constituency votes? Guess the fight back is not a full throttle one.
Overall, though I understand the reasons many think a result which allows Corbyn to carry on is ultimately worse than one so bad it forces him out, apart from Scotland, things really don't look that bad on the face of it. Faces can be misleading, they should be doing better, but with a huge London win to look forward to, and England and Wales not disasters (at least, not obviously even to layman disasters) he's fine and the party might avoid a narrative developing.
The Union seems a bit more secure than it did 24 hours ago.
Has Ruth Davidson killed Scottish Nationalism stone dead?
A bit more secure is not very secure. But if the SNP has lost its majority it can't spend the next five years doing nothing but agitating for a new referendum. It would mean there is no mandate for the triggers it listed in its manifesto.
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
I know you've been legendarily open-minded about his Jezness throughout his tenure, but if you don't mind me saying, your London success requirement seems quite a carefully crafted test. From what I can see so far we have the following
- very poor Labour performance in Scotland (but due to quite specific factors as SeanT has commented and in line with Miliband's performance there) - moderately poor Labour and slightly worse Conservative performance in Wales: doesn't look too bad for GE equivalent unless Plaid make a massive breakthrough - better than forecast Labour performance in English locals, looking at share of vote, which is the only realistic comparator - likely substantial success for Labour in London, though maybe not stellar (hence, I assume, your requirement for "big GLA gains" for it to be called a success
On the "battleground areas" test, what's the position (I'm not disagreeing with you, I genuinely don't know)? Are we seeing Labour improving the position in England generally, but only where it doesn't matter? And is there any reasonable basis for concluding that the actual candidates who Corbyn beat in 2015 would have outperformed in any of the key tests?
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
Scotland has voted overwhelmingly for parties that favour tax cuts over tax rises. It is now clearly the most centre right part of the UK. That is very amusing, unless you are at the bottom of the ladder there.
I'll take a wild punt that the number of PBers getting moist over a SCon revival is in inverse proportion to those able to identify a SCon msp other than Davidson.
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Now you are being a bit unfair Richard. We all know the Tories i
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
The Union seems a bit more secure than it did 24 hours ago.
Has Ruth Davidson killed Scottish Nationalism stone dead?
Can you get any more stupid , that is below the level I would expect from Scott. Did you not previously pretend to be clever on here rather than a thick turnip.
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
norman smith @BBCNormanS 5m5 minutes ago Leading Corbyn critic tells me -"He has until this time next year to prove he won't hand 2020 to the Tories on a plate."
Could Davidson become leader? Seems remote and yet...
Is there some kind of path, if Cameron stays on for two years?
There might be a few by elections in Scotland to Westminster.
Ruth can win anywhere in Scotland.
Or if the Crick investigations go anywhere a few by elections in England.
Ruth can win anywhere where the greens put up a candidate to split the Independence vote?
I don't think the Greens can explain an increase in the Tory vote?
Ruth won her seat by 610 votes with the green candidate getting 4600 votes.
The increase in Con votes is because there has been a realignment. Unionist votes are now going to the Conservatives. People getting excited over Ruth's performance seem to be glossing over the perfectly unique circumstances in Scotland. You may as well suggest Sturgeon for Labour because she's popular.
Although I suppose a post EURef environment might produce something similar, in which case Ruth could be the perfect person to lead the Conservatives to second place.
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
And I've no doubt it was. But then they fell even further. And then further.
The SNP's position remains dominant, overwhelmingly so, Independence remains a possibility and there's no guarantee they will stumble at the next set of elections or that the Tory surge will be sustained or even increase. None of that should be forgotten. But they're entitled to celebrate second place when even that looked impossible for so long.
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
Roger Scully @roger_scully 7m7 minutes ago Unless something very unexpected in the final two regions, looking very much: Lab 28, PC 12, Con 11, UKIP 8, LDs 1.
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
Two completely irrelevant things: The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel's up to #2 on US Amazon [horror anthology category]. Be cracking if it reached #1 [as happened with the UK site].
What are those smoky, bubbly, piped drinking thingummyjigs they have in the Middle East called? I'm possibly writing a fantasy short with a Persian feel and *might* include them (depends on whether they fit technologically).
Could Davidson become leader? Seems remote and yet...
Is there some kind of path, if Cameron stays on for two years?
There might be a few by elections in Scotland to Westminster.
Ruth can win anywhere in Scotland.
Or if the Crick investigations go anywhere a few by elections in England.
Ruth can win anywhere where the greens put up a candidate to split the Independence vote?
I don't think the Greens can explain an increase in the Tory vote?
Ruth won her seat by 610 votes with the green candidate getting 4600 votes.
The increase in Con votes is because there has been a realignment. Unionist votes are now going to the Conservatives. People getting excited over Ruth's performance seem to be glossing over the perfectly unique circumstances in Scotland. You may as well suggest Sturgeon for Labour because she's popular.
Although I suppose a post EURef environment might produce something similar, in which case Ruth could be the perfect person to lead the Conservatives to second place.
Yes, maybe Ruth snuck through the middle, but I'd argue the Green vote cannot explain the change in the Tory vote share.
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
To put a different context on it though, the Tory Party have been pretty much flatlining in Scotland since 1997 (almost 20 years) and have been the third party since the creation of the Scottish Parliament.
To show very good signs of recovery from that position is nothing short of remarkable. It is not long since people were confidently predicting that the Tory Party was dying out in Scotland and would dwindle down to pretty much nothing.
Despite those Scots seats then, it's actually looking bloody awful still for the LDs all over the country then? Outside really odd places like Eastleigh.
Two completely irrelevant things: The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel's up to #2 on US Amazon [horror anthology category]. Be cracking if it reached #1 [as happened with the UK site].
What are those smoky, bubbly, piped drinking thingummyjigs they have in the Middle East called? I'm possibly writing a fantasy short with a Persian feel and *might* include them (depends on whether they fit technologically).
@journodave: 'Scotland's more left wing. Scotland wants to be like Scandinavia. Scots don't mind paying more tax' is that right, aye? #SP16
Denmark and Finland have centre right governments, Sweden a populist rightwing party on rise, Scotland still has a centre left party as its largest just a centre right party now the main opposition
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
Two completely irrelevant things: The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel's up to #2 on US Amazon [horror anthology category]. Be cracking if it reached #1 [as happened with the UK site].
What are those smoky, bubbly, piped drinking thingummyjigs they have in the Middle East called? I'm possibly writing a fantasy short with a Persian feel and *might* include them (depends on whether they fit technologically).
I still think poaching Davidson from Scotland when the revival is still embryonic is a bad idea. I don't even think she'd want it.
Agreed. It would be incredibly bad politics to yank the first Tory to make 'Leader of the Opposition' in Scotland down to Westminster so soon.
She's only 37. She should have at least another 5 years to enjoy the role that she's won and try and build upon it.
After that though...
She should get out whilst ahead, it will not happen again.
You may be right, but then again you said it wouldn't happen in the first place, at the least in respect of her own chances.
Same logic as for chances of Trump or Corbyn, I know, but it has some validity.
Unfortunately the Greens put some root vegetable up on that particular seat for some bizarre reason or not. Obviously out to nobble the SNP and seems to have helped them as they will be the likely lapdogs SNP will need for an overall majority.
I'll take a wild punt that the number of PBers getting moist over a SCon revival is in inverse proportion to those able to identify a SCon msp other than Davidson.
Guilty as charged. Don't know don't care. Do know Davidson is good, do care that the Nats are hobbled. Heh.
The Ruth Davidson for Second Best party IS second best. Hurrah!
Two completely irrelevant things: The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel's up to #2 on US Amazon [horror anthology category]. Be cracking if it reached #1 [as happened with the UK site].
What are those smoky, bubbly, piped drinking thingummyjigs they have in the Middle East called? I'm possibly writing a fantasy short with a Persian feel and *might* include them (depends on whether they fit technologically).
Hookah?
Yes, but you don't drink through them. You inhale tobacco or other smoke passed through water.
I imagine Labour 'winning' the spin war suits the Conservatives just fine. Can't recall the last set of elections that the performance of the Govt of the day was considered such an irrelevance to the commentariat.
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat 2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
Remind me what happened before the 1987 election. Then remind me what happened before the 2016 election. It's as if you are ignoring the nadir of the Scottish Tory party on purpose.
Can something be done about the overuse of the "Quote" function on PB? When multiple series of comments build "Quote" mountains, PB becomes almost unreadable. Blocks of dark towering pyramids, each overshadowing the last, obscure the few bright spots of illumination.
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat 2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
I don't know why you seem to have a problem with both those statements being true (excepting use of 'victory' - it was a pretty amazing result for SCON, but not a victory, obviously, as there's only one winner), due to the context and the reasonable expectations of the political environment of the time.
Could Davidson become leader? Seems remote and yet...
Is there some kind of path, if Cameron stays on for two years?
There might be a few by elections in Scotland to Westminster.
Ruth can win anywhere in Scotland.
Or if the Crick investigations go anywhere a few by elections in England.
Ruth can win anywhere where the greens put up a candidate to split the Independence vote?
I don't think the Greens can explain an increase in the Tory vote?
Ruth won her seat by 610 votes with the green candidate getting 4600 votes.
The increase in Con votes is because there has been a realignment. Unionist votes are now going to the Conservatives. People getting excited over Ruth's performance seem to be glossing over the perfectly unique circumstances in Scotland. You may as well suggest Sturgeon for Labour because she's popular.
Although I suppose a post EURef environment might produce something similar, in which case Ruth could be the perfect person to lead the Conservatives to second place.
Yes, maybe Ruth snuck through the middle, but I'd argue the Green vote cannot explain the change in the Tory vote share.
Middle class Labour unionists have held their noses and gone Tory rather than vote for independence
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat 2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
The polarisation may go further yet if the SNP now get into bed with the Greens. If I were the SNP I would avoid that option like the plague - it could see even more of their softer support peeling off in places like the NE - where, I note, there were some big double-digit SNP to Tory swings even in seats the SNP held.
Can something be done about the overuse of the "Quote" function on PB? When multiple series of comments build "Quote" mountains, PB becomes almost unreadable. Blocks of dark towering pyramids, each overshadowing the last, obscure the few bright spots of illumination.
You can change this behaviour in your vanilla settings:
Roger Scully @roger_scully 7m7 minutes ago Unless something very unexpected in the final two regions, looking very much: Lab 28, PC 12, Con 11, UKIP 8, LDs 1.
Welsh polls were pretty spot on.
Were they? My recollection is that the election day YouGov showed Labour doing much worse?
I still think poaching Davidson from Scotland when the revival is still embryonic is a bad idea. I don't even think she'd want it.
Agreed. It would be incredibly bad politics to yank the first Tory to make 'Leader of the Opposition' in Scotland down to Westminster so soon.
She's only 37. She should have at least another 5 years to enjoy the role that she's won and try and build upon it.
After that though...
She should get out whilst ahead, it will not happen again.
You may be right, but then again you said it wouldn't happen in the first place, at the least in respect of her own chances.
Same logic as for chances of Trump or Corbyn, I know, but it has some validity.
Unfortunately the Greens put some root vegetable up on that particular seat for some bizarre reason or not. Obviously out to nobble the SNP and seems to have helped them as they will be the likely lapdogs SNP will need for an overall majority.
It allows the SNP to show how inclusive they are as well, working with their lapdogs.
Having not stayed up (wisely...): some reflections
We're clearly past peak SNP... good Tories fighting like ferrets in a sack but hanging on - and the Scotland results good. Against the backdrop of a publically divided party could be a lot worse Labour doing better than expected in England and Wales. Corbyn probably safe - this could be good for Tories. LDs - Green shoots...?!
Could as ever be about the economy stupid - ominous signs which will of course be bad for the tories
Undefined discussion subject.
Comments
If that's the result, it'll be interesting to see what the prevailing story is.
Thanks to Mr Meeks for his 8/1 NOM tip yesterday!
The story of these elections would be the SNP losing their majority at Holyrood.
According to her ladyship !! ...
Sad to see Labour's decline continue in a Scotland that is clearly moving centre right, but the Union feels a touch safer this morning.
Is there some kind of path, if Cameron stays on for two years?
Albeit that this possibly solidifies Corbyns hold on the party so probably a negative in the medium-long term
@gwpurnell: Looking forward to less timid policy from SNP on land & local taxation issues. Green/SNP cooperation now vital to push things through.
That's the new SNP plan. Make the Greens their bitch.
Aye, right.
Ruth can win anywhere in Scotland.
Or if the Crick investigations go anywhere a few by elections in England.
I can see her endorsement mattering to the final two candidates though.
I didn't. Nonetheless, this is one more such.
Down South hard-left Labour is irrelevant whatever happens in Scotland.
Middle class metropolitans prefer Corbyn to Cameron
England and Wales results are dependent upon from whom UKIP takes wwc votes
Scotland - the SNP now have a divided opposition
None of the political parties are popular
How can Ruth lead the Conservatives from London?
I thought she was currently running the Ruth Davidson party in Scotland?
The Union seems a bit more secure than it did 24 hours ago.
Has Ruth Davidson killed Scottish Nationalism stone dead?
Overall, though I understand the reasons many think a result which allows Corbyn to carry on is ultimately worse than one so bad it forces him out, apart from Scotland, things really don't look that bad on the face of it. Faces can be misleading, they should be doing better, but with a huge London win to look forward to, and England and Wales not disasters (at least, not obviously even to layman disasters) he's fine and the party might avoid a narrative developing.
In the locals not great for Labour but not as bad as it could have been and UKIP making progress. Labour hold on comfortably in Wales, their best results of the night. Corbyn really needs to win the London mayoral and assembly elections later though
She's only 37. She should have at least another 5 years to enjoy the role that she's won and try and build upon it.
After that though...
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
I know you've been legendarily open-minded about his Jezness throughout his tenure, but if you don't mind me saying, your London success requirement seems quite a carefully crafted test. From what I can see so far we have the following
- very poor Labour performance in Scotland (but due to quite specific factors as SeanT has commented and in line with Miliband's performance there)
- moderately poor Labour and slightly worse Conservative performance in Wales: doesn't look too bad for GE equivalent unless Plaid make a massive breakthrough
- better than forecast Labour performance in English locals, looking at share of vote, which is the only realistic comparator
- likely substantial success for Labour in London, though maybe not stellar (hence, I assume, your requirement for "big GLA gains" for it to be called a success
On the "battleground areas" test, what's the position (I'm not disagreeing with you, I genuinely don't know)? Are we seeing Labour improving the position in England generally, but only where it doesn't matter? And is there any reasonable basis for concluding that the actual candidates who Corbyn beat in 2015 would have outperformed in any of the key tests?
SNP largest party but short of majority
SNP 63 (-6)
Con 31 (+16)
Lab 24 (-13)
Green 6 (+4)
LD 5 (-)
#sp16
So do prisoners...
@WingsScotland: @BitidhFreebird Good for you. You just killed independence for a generation.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Same logic as for chances of Trump or Corbyn, I know, but it has some validity.
norman smith @BBCNormanS 5m5 minutes ago
Leading Corbyn critic tells me -"He has until this time next year to prove he won't hand 2020 to the Tories on a plate."
The increase in Con votes is because there has been a realignment. Unionist votes are now going to the Conservatives. People getting excited over Ruth's performance seem to be glossing over the perfectly unique circumstances in Scotland. You may as well suggest Sturgeon for Labour because she's popular.
Although I suppose a post EURef environment might produce something similar, in which case Ruth could be the perfect person to lead the Conservatives to second place.
The SNP's position remains dominant, overwhelmingly so, Independence remains a possibility and there's no guarantee they will stumble at the next set of elections or that the Tory surge will be sustained or even increase. None of that should be forgotten. But they're entitled to celebrate second place when even that looked impossible for so long.
Equivalent GE would be this one...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1987
At least the Tories still had a majority.
Unless something very unexpected in the final two regions, looking very much: Lab 28, PC 12, Con 11, UKIP 8, LDs 1.
Welsh polls were pretty spot on.
The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel's up to #2 on US Amazon [horror anthology category]. Be cracking if it reached #1 [as happened with the UK site].
What are those smoky, bubbly, piped drinking thingummyjigs they have in the Middle East called? I'm possibly writing a fantasy short with a Persian feel and *might* include them (depends on whether they fit technologically).
To show very good signs of recovery from that position is nothing short of remarkable. It is not long since people were confidently predicting that the Tory Party was dying out in Scotland and would dwindle down to pretty much nothing.
Hookah?
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat
2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
SLAB? Breeding like the Scottish pandas....
A quick google confirms it is. Thanks, that was bugging me
@DavidGauke: Labour's collapse in Scotland means that, whoever leads them, they can only govern the UK in future with the help of the SNP.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/profile/edit
Quote settings, then select how many levels you want.
We're clearly past peak SNP... good
Tories fighting like ferrets in a sack but hanging on - and the Scotland results good. Against the backdrop of a publically divided party could be a lot worse
Labour doing better than expected in England and Wales. Corbyn probably safe - this could be good for Tories.
LDs - Green shoots...?!
Could as ever be about the economy stupid - ominous signs which will of course be bad for the tories