Corbyn is, of course, coming at it from a London viewpoint, the cap there is £23,000 a week tax free.
Crickey pays well this being on benefits in London... ;-)
Given the median wage in London is £33k for full time workers and £28k for all workers, £23k does not go very far for a family, not that it should when coming from welfare
You missed the gag....there was a typo which I highlighted in bold!
Rather than Ken standing for Tooting, as has ruined his reputation, perhaps they could find an A. Hitler. He seems to have public recognition these days, just look at how popular search term in google .
Rather than Ken standing for Tooting, as has ruined his reputation, perhaps they could find an A. Hitler. He seems to have public recognition these days, just look at how popular search term in google .
Excellent thread. The strange death of Scottish Labour is truly remarkable and it is looking increasingly likely that historians will regard devolution as an incredible self inflicted terminal injury.
Rather than Ken standing for Tooting, as has ruined his reputation, perhaps they could find an A. Hitler. He seems to have public recognition these days, just look at how popular search term in google .
Res gain 3 from Con though Res are also down 3 by ward reorganisation in Molseley Weybridge Riverside 2 Con 1 LD wards reorganised previously 3 Con 1 LD
Excellent thread. The strange death of Scottish Labour is truly remarkable and it is looking increasingly likely that historians will regard devolution as an incredible self inflicted terminal injury.
I agree - a great thread article. As was the previous. Thanks @david_herdson
Labour's wavering on the Union, and accusations the SNP are in reality more right wing than their rhetoric suggests (or the people of Scotland believe, in that Scotland thinks it is much more distinct in political view than is the case), led me to think we would be better served if Lab were openly for independence from the left, SNP from the right, with the LDs and Tories being the Unionist parties on the left and right respectively, and the Greens doing their own think as usual.
I'm told however that what remains of SLab is the unionist rump, so that's out I guess, plus it suits the SNP to try to be a big tent party for as long as possible, so I guess that option is a no go, for all it would add clarity.
I take the point about purpose, and that SCon will not be able to a challenge SNP dominance due to the lower ceiling of their support, but does SLab have a better ceiling anymore? It might be that no-one has a realistic change of challenging the SNP dominance for now, and their invulnerability will only be challengable due to their own actions, and we won't know if SLab or SCon will be better placed to capitalise until it happens.
On the assumption it will be SLab as it is hard to see SCon doing more than adding a few more seats rather than a second massive increase in support, their purpose is to offer 'competent' left of centre government for indy and non-indy alike. The SNP aren't suffering on the competency front at the moment, but no one can be competent forever and presumably an opportunity will come, unless the SNP are to be the new Liberal party of Japan.
Apparently Corbyn's man has won Bristol Mayoral election.
People I know in Bristol say Labour threw everything at it, their people were all over the place on this one.
I know the arguments why the results in this locals round are a bad omen for Labour 2020, but they were not so bad as to enable anti-Corbynista to use as a reason why Corbyn obviously needs to go, and part of me wonders if the hanging on in the south and handful of easy wins in big places like Bristol (even if predicted) and London may start to change the narrative a bit. Fact is, Corbyn is preventing wins in the heartlands and is even improving matters in some of them - while other places may not like Corbyn in the same manner, if people start to think Lab under him are winners, some numbers may come back, in a Trump like manner (I feel part of his later success has to be people backing the one who appears to be a winner).
Of course this ignores Scotland, but then most people do.
Apparently Corbyn's man has won Bristol Mayoral election.
People I know in Bristol say Labour threw everything at it, their people were all over the place on this one.
I know the arguments why the results in this locals round are a bad omen for Labour 2020, but they were not so bad as to enable anti-Corbynista to use as a reason why Corbyn obviously needs to go, and part of me wonders if the hanging on in the south and handful of easy wins in big places like Bristol (even if predicted) and London may start to change the narrative a bit. Fact is, Corbyn is preventing wins in the heartlands and is even improving matters in some of them - while other places may not like Corbyn in the same manner, if people start to think Lab under him are winners, some numbers may come back, in a Trump like manner (I feel part of his later success has to be people backing the one who appears to be a winner).
Of course this ignores Scotland, but then most people do.
I think Bristol is a special case. The incumbent mayor has been a massive disappointment from what I understand, elected as an independent and a lot of hope, but ended up pissing off loads and loads of people with stuff like bonkers eco policies.
No, for this simple reason, fantastic though the Scottish Tories result was on Thursday it was about the ceiling of their support, they are never going to replace the SNP as the largest party in Holyrood only Scottish Labour can do that. The SNP are now into a third term moving increasingly centre right and now unlikely to force through another independence referendum having lost their majority (short of Brexit). Labour voters who voted Yes and moved to the SNP as a leftwing alternative to New Labour may now start to get disillusioned if the SNP fail to deliver independence and a leftwing agenda and start to drift back to Labour, especially if Dugdale starts to push through a more centre left alternative while Davidson congratulates Sturgeon on her economic policies. If Labour again became largest party they would also likely be supported by the LDs and could even do a deal with the Greens. Parties rarely become extinct unless they are completely replaced by another, the classic model for Scottish Labour to follow is the Canadian Liberal Party, at the 2011 election they were pushed into third place yet just 4 years later they won a landslide victory, in politics nothing is ever impossible!
Apparently Corbyn's man has won Bristol Mayoral election.
People I know in Bristol say Labour threw everything at it, their people were all over the place on this one.
I know the arguments why the results in this locals round are a bad omen for Labour 2020, but they were not so bad as to enable anti-Corbynista to use as a reason why Corbyn obviously needs to go, and part of me wonders if the hanging on in the south and handful of easy wins in big places like Bristol (even if predicted) and London may start to change the narrative a bit. Fact is, Corbyn is preventing wins in the heartlands and is even improving matters in some of them - while other places may not like Corbyn in the same manner, if people start to think Lab under him are winners, some numbers may come back, in a Trump like manner (I feel part of his later success has to be people backing the one who appears to be a winner).
Of course this ignores Scotland, but then most people do.
Things will get really interesting when Trump notices JC and Mayor Khan and promises his voters (who all despise the English in any case) that he'll send some "very special people" to "sort them out".
Been out all morning but turned on LBC (Tom Swarbrick) and he's giving the tories and Zac G an absolute pasting. Very surprised at the number of muslims who rang up and said they and their friends were going to vote for Zac until he went negative. What a missed opportunity.
I can't see Tooting going to anyone other than Labour, even though I understand it's a marginal.
The problem for scottish Labour is that there is already a major centre-left party in scotland, the SNP.
The FPTP system always results in 2 major parties, one on the centre-right and one on the centre-left, once you fall off the top two you need an extraordinary set of circumstances to return, as the Liberals found out 100 years ago.
In the case of scottish Labour, it's leadership continues to be pathetic and too centrist to attract any disillusioned lefties from the SNP if there are any that is.
What they need is a return to local Glasgow roots to get rid of the stigma of them being part of the Edinburgh elite. Glasgow has more leftwing votes than Edinburgh and Dungdale always had zero appeal in those areas, that's why my suggestion was for SLAB to elect a local MSP from Glasgow instead.
As for the the scottish Tories that is simple, the SNP moving to the left to occupy the Labour ground means that they exposed themselves on their right flank for the Tories to occupy. That the Tories succeeded means that the coalition of voters that the SNP built is fragile.
I'm not amazed that the SNP lost its majority, I was the one of the very few who predicted that here a year ago.
Been out all morning but turned on LBC (Tom Swarbrick) and he's giving the tories and Zac G an absolute pasting. Very surprised at the number of muslims who rang up and said they and their friends were going to vote for Zac until he went negative. What a missed opportunity.
I can't see Tooting going to anyone other than Labour, even though I understand it's a marginal.
I think the Tories could be on course for a really UGLY result in Tooting.
A mixture of the young, socially-liberal professionals who've been boosting the Tories in Wandsworth being repelled by the racism, and Eurosceptics being pushed to UKIP or abstention (since the by-election will be held when EURef campaign is in full swing).
No, for this simple reason, fantastic though the Scottish Tories result was on Thursday it was about the ceiling of their support, they are never going to replace the SNP as the largest party in Holyrood only Scottish Labour can do that.
This post brought to you by supporters of "David Cameron can never win a Westminster majority..."
Labour are going to win Bristol mayoral election extremely easily. Incumbent miles behind in the first round, 57k to 33k votes (roughly 40% vs 20%). Going to get pasted.
Interestingly in raw vote numbers, Ferguson has got the same number of votes as 2012. Turn out was way up and they all seem to have gone to Corbynistia Rees.
Is that the Corbyn affect, pissed off at incumbent effect, or more awareness that it is something that can be voted on?
Apparently 360 votes total switched from Con->SNP (305 in Edinburgh Central) and Lab-> SNP (55 in Dumbarton) would have been enough for the SNP to have a Moral Mandate for IndyRef2.
Apparently Corbyn's man has won Bristol Mayoral election.
People I know in Bristol say Labour threw everything at it, their people were all over the place on this one.
I know the arguments why the results in this locals round are a bad omen for Labour 2020, but they were not so bad as to enable anti-Corbynista to use as a reason why Corbyn obviously needs to go, and part of me wonders if the hanging on in the south and handful of easy wins in big places like Bristol (even if predicted) and London may start to change the narrative a bit. Fact is, Corbyn is preventing wins in the heartlands and is even improving matters in some of them - while other places may not like Corbyn in the same manner, if people start to think Lab under him are winners, some numbers may come back, in a Trump like manner (I feel part of his later success has to be people backing the one who appears to be a winner).
Of course this ignores Scotland, but then most people do.
I still remember that David Herdson thread that predicted an utter catastrophe for Labour in the local elections. It had a table that projected Labour close to 10 points behind in the national equivalent vote, and I still remember the talk from early this year of Labour losing up to 1000 seats.
Even last month PB had this set of gloomy predictions, which Labour beat:
No, for this simple reason, fantastic though the Scottish Tories result was on Thursday it was about the ceiling of their support, they are never going to replace the SNP as the largest party in Holyrood only Scottish Labour can do that.
This post brought to you by supporters of "David Cameron can never win a Westminster majority..."
Eh? I voted for David Cameron in 2010 (Clegg in 2015) and predicted the Tories would comfortably be the largest party the night before polling day! Even when they did win a majority UK wide the Tories only won 1 seat in Scotland, indeed they did not even win most seats in Scotland when Thatcher won a landslide of more than 100 seats in 1983 and they did even better in Scotland then than they did last Thursday
1997 was huge for Labour and took a few elections to return to what looks like a general position of Lab by 5-15%. Unlike other 'marginals' the majority (just) went up in 2015, and even if that was down to Khan having a personal vote, his stock will now never be higher and whoever he backs will surely pick up most of the Lab vote which turned out for Khan.
I lack the patience of knowledge for any sort of indepth analysis, and I don't know London, but it looks like a seat the Tories creep up to be competitive in but never cross the line in first, and with Corbyn popular in London and the Khan effect, and Tories split, it has to be safe. Surely.
Hopefully we'll manage not to select an anti-Semite to stand in the by-election.
As for Scotland, there aren't enough lefty unionists to make that your policy platform and expect success. Labour needs to reflect the views of working class Scots, and if that means being open minded on the Independence question, so be it.
The problem for scottish Labour is that there is already a major centre-left party in scotland, the SNP.
The FPTP system always results in 2 major parties, one on the centre-right and one on the centre-left, once you fall off the top two you need an extraordinary set of circumstances to return, as the Liberals found out 100 years ago.
In the case of scottish Labour, it's leadership continues to be pathetic and too centrist to attract any disillusioned lefties from the SNP if there are any that is.
What they need is a return to local Glasgow roots to get rid of the stigma of them being part of the Edinburgh elite. Glasgow has more leftwing votes than Edinburgh and Dungdale always had zero appeal in those areas, that's why my suggestion was for SLAB to elect a local MSP from Glasgow instead.
As for the the scottish Tories that is simple, the SNP moving to the left to occupy the Labour ground means that they exposed themselves on their right flank for the Tories to occupy. That the Tories succeeded means that the coalition of voters that the SNP built is fragile.
I'm not amazed that the SNP lost its majority, I was the one of the very few who predicted that here a year ago.
Yet as the SNP move to the centre they leave a gap for Labour on their left and if they fail to deliver independence in this parliament many of the nats' core supporters may well become disillusioned and return to their natural Labour home
Apparently Corbyn's man has won Bristol Mayoral election.
People I know in Bristol say Labour threw everything at it, their people were all over the place on this one.
I know the arguments why the results in this locals round are a bad omen for Labour 2020, but they were not so bad as to enable anti-Corbynista to use as a reason why Corbyn obviously needs to go, and part of me wonders if the hanging on in the south and handful of easy wins in big places like Bristol (even if predicted) and London may start to change the narrative a bit. Fact is, Corbyn is preventing wins in the heartlands and is even improving matters in some of them - while other places may not like Corbyn in the same manner, if people start to think Lab under him are winners, some numbers may come back, in a Trump like manner (I feel part of his later success has to be people backing the one who appears to be a winner).
Of course this ignores Scotland, but then most people do.
I still remember that David Herdson thread that predicted an utter catastrophe for Labour in the local elections. It had a table that projected Labour close to 10 points behind in the national equivalent vote, and I still remember the talk from early this year of Labour losing up to 1000 seats.
Even last month PB had this set of gloomy predictions, which Labour beat:
Be it gloomy Lab moderates, Corbynitistas managing expectations, academics being pessimistic or over enthusiastic Tories, it all combined help make it easy for Corbyn and Labour to beat expectations of a drubbing. Other than Scotland which is too bad to brush aside, even if the results are still a harbinger of poor things, they don't look it to most people.
It gives Corbyn and his supporters time to wait until the next electoral test, when things might be even more favourable even if nothing to do with them.
The problem for scottish Labour is that there is already a major centre-left party in scotland, the SNP.
The FPTP system always results in 2 major parties, one on the centre-right and one on the centre-left, once you fall off the top two you need an extraordinary set of circumstances to return, as the Liberals found out 100 years ago.
In the case of scottish Labour, it's leadership continues to be pathetic and too centrist to attract any disillusioned lefties from the SNP if there are any that is.
What they need is a return to local Glasgow roots to get rid of the stigma of them being part of the Edinburgh elite. Glasgow has more leftwing votes than Edinburgh and Dungdale always had zero appeal in those areas, that's why my suggestion was for SLAB to elect a local MSP from Glasgow instead.
As for the the scottish Tories that is simple, the SNP moving to the left to occupy the Labour ground means that they exposed themselves on their right flank for the Tories to occupy. That the Tories succeeded means that the coalition of voters that the SNP built is fragile.
I'm not amazed that the SNP lost its majority, I was the one of the very few who predicted that here a year ago.
Yet as the SNP move to the centre they leave a gap for Labour on their left and if they fail to deliver independence in this parliament many of the nats' core supporters may well become disillusioned and return to their natural Labour home
Labour's performance as part of Better Together has poisoned the well for Indy supporters voting Labour in the near future.
Labour leadership made it clear they didn't want Independence supporters being part of the party.
Elmbridge Hersham Village Con 1 Res 2 makes Con 20 Res 18 LD 7 1 ward to come but Conservatives have lost control of council Final ward 2 Con 1 Res makes 22/19/7
Labour are going to win Bristol mayoral election extremely easily. Incumbent miles behind in the first round, 57k to 33k votes (roughly 40% vs 20%). Going to get pasted.
Interestingly in raw vote numbers, Ferguson has got the same number of votes as 2012. Turn out was way up and they all seem to have gone to Corbynistia Rees.
Is that the Corbyn affect, pissed off at incumbent effect, or more awareness that it is something that can be voted on?
I can tell a local anecdote from Bristol, a local friend of mine (whose father is a wealthy lawyer from Sheffield and a loyal member of Labour) had voted Green along with most of his social circle in the GE because they thought that Labour was not left wing enough, this time they are OK with Labour because of Corbyn.
No, for this simple reason, fantastic though the Scottish Tories result was on Thursday it was about the ceiling of their support, they are never going to replace the SNP as the largest party in Holyrood only Scottish Labour can do that.
This post brought to you by supporters of "David Cameron can never win a Westminster majority..."
Even were that the case, and HYUFD says it is not, the situations are different and even Mr Herdson, in his typically reasonable way, seems to accept the premise that the Tory vote ceiling is simply lower than Labour's in Scotland, despite eclipsing them this time.
Labour are going to win Bristol mayoral election extremely easily. Incumbent miles behind in the first round, 57k to 33k votes (roughly 40% vs 20%). Going to get pasted.
Interestingly in raw vote numbers, Ferguson has got the same number of votes as 2012. Turn out was way up and they all seem to have gone to Corbynistia Rees.
Is that the Corbyn affect, pissed off at incumbent effect, or more awareness that it is something that can be voted on?
I can tell a local anecdote from Bristol, a local friend of mine (whose father is a wealthy lawyer from Sheffield and a loyal member of Labour) had voted Green along with most of his social circle in the GE because they thought that Labour was not left wing enough, this time they are OK with Labour because of Corbyn.
I'd heard similar - the Greens are apparently pretty big in the city and getting bigger (second in Bristol West at the GE with 26.8%), and plenty of enthusiastic Corbynites, not just anger at the incumbent.
I see Bristol North is definitely odd man out in Bristol - increased Tory majority in 2015)
Labour are going to win Bristol mayoral election extremely easily. Incumbent miles behind in the first round, 57k to 33k votes (roughly 40% vs 20%). Going to get pasted.
Interestingly in raw vote numbers, Ferguson has got the same number of votes as 2012. Turn out was way up and they all seem to have gone to Corbynistia Rees.
Is that the Corbyn affect, pissed off at incumbent effect, or more awareness that it is something that can be voted on?
I can tell a local anecdote from Bristol, a local friend of mine (whose father is a wealthy lawyer from Sheffield and a loyal member of Labour) had voted Green along with most of his social circle in the GE because they thought that Labour was not left wing enough, this time they are OK with Labour because of Corbyn.
I can believe that. Bristol has a Brighton feel about it.
Apparently Corbyn's man has won Bristol Mayoral election.
People I know in Bristol say Labour threw everything at it, their people were all over the place on this one.
I know the arguments why the results in this locals round are a bad omen for Labour 2020, but they were not so bad as to enable anti-Corbynista to use as a reason why Corbyn obviously needs to go, and part of me wonders if the hanging on in the south and handful of easy wins in big places like Bristol (even if predicted) and London may start to change the narrative a bit. Fact is, Corbyn is preventing wins in the heartlands and is even improving matters in some of them - while other places may not like Corbyn in the same manner, if people start to think Lab under him are winners, some numbers may come back, in a Trump like manner (I feel part of his later success has to be people backing the one who appears to be a winner).
Of course this ignores Scotland, but then most people do.
I still remember that David Herdson thread that predicted an utter catastrophe for Labour in the local elections. It had a table that projected Labour close to 10 points behind in the national equivalent vote, and I still remember the talk from early this year of Labour losing up to 1000 seats.
Even last month PB had this set of gloomy predictions, which Labour beat:
Be it Lab moderates, Corbynitistas managing expectations, academics being pessimistic or over enthusiastic Tories, it all combined help make it easy for Corbyn and Labour to beat expectations of a drubbing. Other than Scotland which is too bad to brush aside, even if the results are still a harbinger of poor things, they don't look it to most people.
It gives Corbyn and his supporters time to wait until the next electoral test, when things might be even more favourable even if nothing to do with them.
If Curtice et al hadn't predicted 150 loses, the fact that Labour managed to lose seats for the first time in 30yrs would've hit home. They set the bar and Labour dodged a PR bullet.
The problem for scottish Labour is that there is already a major centre-left party in scotland, the SNP.
The FPTP system always results in 2 major parties, one on the centre-right and one on the centre-left, once you fall off the top two you need an extraordinary set of circumstances to return, as the Liberals found out 100 years ago.
In the case of scottish Labour, it's leadership continues to be pathetic and too centrist to attract any disillusioned lefties from the SNP if there are any that is.
What they need is a return to local Glasgow roots to get rid of the stigma of them being part of the Edinburgh elite. Glasgow has more leftwing votes than Edinburgh and Dungdale always had zero appeal in those areas, that's why my suggestion was for SLAB to elect a local MSP from Glasgow instead.
As for the the scottish Tories that is simple, the SNP moving to the left to occupy the Labour ground means that they exposed themselves on their right flank for the Tories to occupy. That the Tories succeeded means that the coalition of voters that the SNP built is fragile.
I'm not amazed that the SNP lost its majority, I was the one of the very few who predicted that here a year ago.
Yet as the SNP move to the centre they leave a gap for Labour on their left and if they fail to deliver independence in this parliament many of the nats' core supporters may well become disillusioned and return to their natural Labour home
They can't deliver on independence anymore, the oil price is way too low to sustain scotland.
Right now the SNP has a strategic choice to make, either abandon their nationalist right and focus on keeping their dominance of the left, which will result in a scottish Tory renaissance, or forget about the left and try too keep the nationalist right inside the tent and risk a scottish Labour renaissance.
The SNP can no longer be a party of one size fits all, they can't be both left wing and right wing or liberal, they have to choose.
Apparently Corbyn's man has won Bristol Mayoral election.
People I know in Bristol say Labour threw everything at it, their people were all over the place on this one.
I know the arguments why the results in this locals round are a bad omen for Labour 2020, but they were not so bad as to enable anti-Corbynista to use as a reason why Corbyn obviously needs to go, and part of me wonders if the hanging on in the south and handful of easy wins in big places like Bristol (even if predicted) and London may start to change the narrative a bit. Fact is, Corbyn is preventing wins in the heartlands and is even improving matters in some of them - while other places may not like Corbyn in the same manner, if people start to think Lab under him are winners, some numbers may come back, in a Trump like manner (I feel part of his later success has to be people backing the one who appears to be a winner).
Of course this ignores Scotland, but then most people do.
I still remember that David Herdson thread that predicted an utter catastrophe for Labour in the local elections. It had a table that projected Labour close to 10 points behind in the national equivalent vote, and I still remember the talk from early this year of Labour losing up to 1000 seats.
Even last month PB had this set of gloomy predictions, which Labour beat:
Be it Lab moderates, Corbynitistas managing expectations, academics being pessimistic or over enthusiastic Tories, it all combined help make it easy for Corbyn and Labour to beat expectations of a drubbing. Other than Scotland which is too bad to brush aside, even if the results are still a harbinger of poor things, they don't look it to most people.
It gives Corbyn and his supporters time to wait until the next electoral test, when things might be even more favourable even if nothing to do with them.
If Curtice et al hadn't predicted 150 loses, the fact that Labour managed to lose seats for the first time in 30yrs would've hit home. They set the bar and Labour dodged a PR bullet.
First time in 30 years? I'm sure Labour lost quite a lot of seats in the 2005 to 2010 period.
The problem for scottish Labour is that there is already a major centre-left party in scotland, the SNP.
The FPTP system always results in 2 major parties, one on the centre-right and one on the centre-left, once you fall off the top two you need an extraordinary set of circumstances to return, as the Liberals found out 100 years ago.
In the case of scottish Labour, it's leadership continues to be pathetic and too centrist to attract any disillusioned lefties from the SNP if there are any that is.
What they need is a return to local Glasgow roots to get rid of the stigma of them being part of the Edinburgh elite. Glasgow has more leftwing votes than Edinburgh and Dungdale always had zero appeal in those areas, that's why my suggestion was for SLAB to elect a local MSP from Glasgow instead.
As for the the scottish Tories that is simple, the SNP moving to the left to occupy the Labour ground means that they exposed themselves on their right flank for the Tories to occupy. That the Tories succeeded means that the coalition of voters that the SNP built is fragile.
I'm not amazed that the SNP lost its majority, I was the one of the very few who predicted that here a year ago.
Yet as the SNP move to the centre they leave a gap for Labour on their left and if they fail to deliver independence in this parliament many of the nats' core supporters may well become disillusioned and return to their natural Labour home
Labour's performance as part of Better Together has poisoned the well for Indy supporters voting Labour in the near future.
Labour leadership made it clear they didn't want Independence supporters being part of the party.
It poisoned it for Murphy and London Labour and the legacy of that remained on Thursday but I am not sure that holds for Dugdale, especially if the SNP fail to deliver the independence referendum independence supporters want and deliver a centre/centre right agenda in government
Elmbridge Hersham Village Con 1 Res 2 makes Con 20 Res 18 LD 7 1 ward to come but Conservatives have lost control of council
Very sadly, JohnO's lost his seat
That is a disappointment. I recall though that boundary changes had made his safe seat marginal but he'd opted to fight his home rather than stand in a safer ward.
Bah, I hate it when David Herdson writes about a subject I was going to write about and does it better than I would have done.
The Conservatives were kept crushed by Labour when Labour under Tony Blair kept his right flank covered, but at the expense of giving the SNP space to grow on the progressive side. The SNP can keep Scottish Labour crushed but only by staying firmly left (incidentally, they must do the same to keep the Greens in check).
This should give the Scottish Conservatives space to grow, should they elect to try.
Sadiq Khan is a surprisingly big story globally, BTW.
American media going big on how the "Trump-style" Tory campaign backfired.
A minor headline on the CNN website does not really count as 'going big', other US media barely mention it
1) CNN so far left - they are the Morning Star of American gutter journalism. 2) Trump hasn't engaged in Islamophobia - his message has been mainly positive - but targeted at the common man, not the intelligentsia or pandering to minority groups.
Bah, I hate it when David Herdson writes about a subject I was going to write about and does it better than I would have done.
The Conservatives were kept crushed by Labour when Labour under Tony Blair kept his right flank covered, but at the expense of giving the SNP space to grow on the progressive side. The SNP can keep Scottish Labour crushed but only by staying firmly left (incidentally, they must do the same to keep the Greens in check).
This should give the Scottish Conservatives space to grow, should they elect to try.
Indeed, if the SNP continue to move to the centre right there may be room for Labour and the Greens to challenge them from the left
Apparently Corbyn's man has won Bristol Mayoral election.
People I know in Bristol say Labour threw everything at it, their people were all over the place on this one.
I know the arguments why the results in this locals round are a bad omen for Labour 2020, but they were not so bad as to enable anti-Corbynista to use as a reason why Corbyn obviously needs to go, and part of me wonders if the hanging on in the south and handful of easy wins in big places like Bristol (even if predicted) and London may start to change the narrative a bit. Fact is, Corbyn is preventing wins in the heartlands and is even improving matters in some of them - while other places may not like Corbyn in the same manner, if people start to think Lab under him are winners, some numbers may come back, in a Trump like manner (I feel part of his later success has to be people backing the one who appears to be a winner).
Of course this ignores Scotland, but then most people do.
I still remember that David Herdson thread that predicted an utter catastrophe for Labour in the local elections. It had a table that projected Labour close to 10 points behind in the national equivalent vote, and I still remember the talk from early this year of Labour losing up to 1000 seats.
Even last month PB had this set of gloomy predictions, which Labour beat:
Be it Lab moderates, Corbynitistas managing expectations, academics being pessimistic or over enthusiastic Tories, it all combined help make it easy for Corbyn and Labour to beat expectations of a drubbing. Other than Scotland which is too bad to brush aside, even if the results are still a harbinger of poor things, they don't look it to most people.
It gives Corbyn and his supporters time to wait until the next electoral test, when things might be even more favourable even if nothing to do with them.
If Curtice et al hadn't predicted 150 loses, the fact that Labour managed to lose seats for the first time in 30yrs would've hit home. They set the bar and Labour dodged a PR bullet.
First time in 30 years? I'm sure Labour lost quite a lot of seats in the 2005 to 2010 period.
First Opposition to lose net council seats outside a GE.
'Even last month PB had this set of gloomy predictions, which Labour beat:'
Maybe, but as every TV commentator has said at this time in the electoral cycle Labour should be winning hundreds of seats, not at best standing still.
The problem for scottish Labour is that there is already a major centre-left party in scotland, the SNP.
The FPTP system always results in 2 major parties, one on the centre-right and one on the centre-left, once you fall off the top two you need an extraordinary set of circumstances to return, as the Liberals found out 100 years ago.
In the case of scottish Labour, it's leadership continues to be pathetic and too centrist to attract any disillusioned lefties from the SNP if there are any that is.
What they need is a return to local Glasgow roots to get rid of the stigma of them being part of the Edinburgh elite. Glasgow has more leftwing votes than Edinburgh and Dungdale always had zero appeal in those areas, that's why my suggestion was for SLAB to elect a local MSP from Glasgow instead.
As for the the scottish Tories that is simple, the SNP moving to the left to occupy the Labour ground means that they exposed themselves on their right flank for the Tories to occupy. That the Tories succeeded means that the coalition of voters that the SNP built is fragile.
I'm not amazed that the SNP lost its majority, I was the one of the very few who predicted that here a year ago.
Yet as the SNP move to the centre they leave a gap for Labour on their left and if they fail to deliver independence in this parliament many of the nats' core supporters may well become disillusioned and return to their natural Labour home
Labour's performance as part of Better Together has poisoned the well for Indy supporters voting Labour in the near future.
Labour leadership made it clear they didn't want Independence supporters being part of the party.
It poisoned it for Murphy and London Labour and the legacy of that remained on Thursday but I am not sure that holds for Dugdale, especially if the SNP fail to deliver the independence referendum independence supporters want and deliver a centre/centre right agenda in government
Dugdale is useless, she will be a serial loser. SNP have to stay at the centre , Scotland does not want either a nutjob left wing government or a rabid right wing Tory junta. They need to manage at the edges of right and left and avoid swinging too far either way.
Nicola could get a referendum bill through the parliament if she wants to.
Not really.
To get the Greens to support it, she would need to abandon a whole bunch of her more sensible policies.
She may be stupid, but she's not that daft.
The SNP will now regularly have to rely on the pro-indy Greens, who are as bonkers a bunch of ragtag cranks as politics has seen. How will Sturgeon the centrist manage this relationship? What does a big mainstream government have in common with a fringe movement that is to the wellbeing of the economy what the Campbells were to the MacDonalds in the settlements of Glencoe?
The problem for scottish Labour is that there is already a major centre-left party in scotland, the SNP.
The FPTP system always results in 2 major parties, one on the centre-right and one on the centre-left, once you fall off the top two you need an extraordinary set of circumstances to return, as the Liberals found out 100 years ago.
In the case of scottish Labour, it's leadership continues to be pathetic and too centrist to attract any disillusioned lefties from the SNP if there are any that is.
What they need is a return to local Glasgow roots to get rid of the stigma of them being part of the Edinburgh elite. Glasgow has more leftwing votes than Edinburgh and Dungdale always had zero appeal in those areas, that's why my suggestion was for SLAB to elect a local MSP from Glasgow instead.
As for the the scottish Tories that is simple, the SNP moving to the left to occupy the Labour ground means that they exposed themselves on their right flank for the Tories to occupy. That the Tories succeeded means that the coalition of voters that the SNP built is fragile.
I'm not amazed that the SNP lost its majority, I was the one of the very few who predicted that here a year ago.
Yet as the SNP move to the centre they leave a gap for Labour on their left and if they fail to deliver independence in this parliament many of the nats' core supporters may well become disillusioned and return to their natural Labour home
They can't deliver on independence anymore, the oil price is way too low to sustain scotland.
Right now the SNP has a strategic choice to make, either abandon their nationalist right and focus on keeping their dominance of the left, which will result in a scottish Tory renaissance, or forget about the left and try too keep the nationalist right inside the tent and risk a scottish Labour renaissance.
The SNP can no longer be a party of one size fits all, they can't be both left wing and right wing or liberal, they have to choose.
The problem for scottish Labour is that there is already a major centre-left party in scotland, the SNP.
The FPTP system always results in 2 major parties, one on the centre-right and one on the centre-left, once you fall off the top two you need an extraordinary set of circumstances to return, as the Liberals found out 100 years ago.
In the case of scottish Labour, it's leadership continues to be pathetic and too centrist to attract any disillusioned lefties from the SNP if there are any that is.
What they need is a return to local Glasgow roots to get rid of the stigma of them being part of the Edinburgh elite. Glasgow has more leftwing votes than Edinburgh and Dungdale always had zero appeal in those areas, that's why my suggestion was for SLAB to elect a local MSP from Glasgow instead.
As for the the scottish Tories that is simple, the SNP moving to the left to occupy the Labour ground means that they exposed themselves on their right flank for the Tories to occupy. That the Tories succeeded means that the coalition of voters that the SNP built is fragile.
I'm not amazed that the SNP lost its majority, I was the one of the very few who predicted that here a year ago.
Yet as the SNP move to the centre they leave a gap for Labour on their left and if they fail to deliver independence in this parliament many of the nats' core supporters may well become disillusioned and return to their natural Labour home
Labour's performance as part of Better Together has poisoned the well for Indy supporters voting Labour in the near future.
Labour leadership made it clear they didn't want Independence supporters being part of the party.
It poisoned it for Murphy and London Labour and the legacy of that remained on Thursday but I am not sure that holds for Dugdale, especially if the SNP fail to deliver the independence referendum independence supporters want and deliver a centre/centre right agenda in government
Dugdale is useless, she will be a serial loser. SNP have to stay at the centre , Scotland does not want either a nutjob left wing government or a rabid right wing Tory junta. They need to manage at the edges of right and left and avoid swinging too far either way.
They already have a "nutjob left wing government", that's why the SNP lost it's right flank to the Tories.
On topic, does the death of Scottish Labour mean the death of the Union?
Hardly, given the result on Thursday saw the SNP lose their majority
There is still a pro - independence majority when you add in the Greens. Nicola could get a referendum bill through the parliament if she wants to.
Good to see some sensible people on here , the frothers wetting their pants and imagining the Tories won in Scotland is very bizarre. They are still losers by a country mile and people will not hold their noses the same in a GE or even Holyrood if labour get themselves together.
On the question of a second independence referendum she has attempted to ride two horses — promising wearied mainstream Scotland that there’s nothing lurking in the offing while delivering a stage wink to the clamouring faithful.
And so the voters, in the round, made their choice. You’ll be First Minister, Nicola, but no overall majority: you haven’t earned it, so you can’t have it. Sixty-three seats, not Alex’s sixty-nine, or even the minimum sixty-five. We don’t want another divisive plebiscite or a parliament dominated by tedious Nats droning on about how awful Westminster is. Sort our schools and hospitals, then maybe we’ll talk.
Refreshingly, a fair number of traditional Labour supporters have clearly managed finally to break free of the tired ‘I’ll never vote Tory’ trope, which has been strangling Scotland’s political debate for three decades. For many, at long last, there’s nothing wrong with voting Scottish Conservative — in fact, the national interest requires that you do, even if just with your second vote. ‘Tory’ is no longer an insult, just an option like all the others.
Nicola could get a referendum bill through the parliament if she wants to.
Not really.
To get the Greens to support it, she would need to abandon a whole bunch of her more sensible policies.
She may be stupid, but she's not that daft.
The SNP will now regularly have to rely on the pro-indy Greens, who are as bonkers a bunch of ragtag cranks as politics has seen. How will Sturgeon the centrist manage this relationship? What does a big mainstream government have in common with a fringe movement that is to the wellbeing of the economy what the Campbells were to the MacDonalds in the settlements of Glencoe?
You reckon if the polls were 60-40 for independence she wouldn't go shit or bust for a second referendum?
The problem for scottish Labour is that there is already a major centre-left party in scotland, the SNP.
The FPTP system always results in 2 major parties, one on the centre-right and one on the centre-left, once you fall off the top two you need an extraordinary set of circumstances to return, as the Liberals found out 100 years ago.
In the case of scottish Labour, it's leadership continues to be pathetic and too centrist to attract any disillusioned lefties from the SNP if there are any that is.
What they need is a return to local Glasgow roots to get rid of the stigma of them being part of the Edinburgh elite. Glasgow has more leftwing votes than Edinburgh and Dungdale always had zero appeal in those areas, that's why my suggestion was for SLAB to elect a local MSP from Glasgow instead.
As for the the scottish Tories that is simple, the SNP moving to the left to occupy the Labour ground means that they exposed themselves on their right flank for the Tories to occupy. That the Tories succeeded means that the coalition of voters that the SNP built is fragile.
I'm not amazed that the SNP lost its majority, I was the one of the very few who predicted that here a year ago.
Yet as the SNP move to the centre they leave a gap for Labour on their left and if they fail to deliver independence in this parliament many of the nats' core supporters may well become disillusioned and return to their natural Labour home
Labour's performance as part of Better Together has poisoned the well for Indy supporters voting Labour in the near future.
Labour leadership made it clear they didn't want Independence supporters being part of the party.
It poisoned it for Murphy and London Labour and the legacy of that remained on Thursday but I am not sure that holds for Dugdale, especially if the SNP fail to deliver the independence referendum independence supporters want and deliver a centre/centre right agenda in government
I can't see how they draw the Indy voters back in without supporting Indy in some form. But even soft, you can campaign how you like, support would lose them their remaining Unionist voters and that point they are down to lifer-anyone-but-the-f*cking-Tories voters.
The problem for scottish Labour is that there is already a major centre-left party in scotland, the SNP.
The FPTP system always results in 2 major parties, one on the centre-right and one on the centre-left, once you fall off the top two you need an extraordinary set of circumstances to return, as the Liberals found out 100 years ago.
In the case of scottish Labour, it's leadership continues to be pathetic and too centrist to attract any disillusioned lefties from the SNP if there are any that is.
What they need is a return to local Glasgow roots to get rid of the stigma of them being part of the Edinburgh elite. Glasgow has more leftwing votes than Edinburgh and Dungdale always had zero appeal in those areas, that's why my suggestion was for SLAB to elect a local MSP from Glasgow instead.
As for the the scottish Tories that is simple, the SNP moving to the left to occupy the Labour ground means that they exposed themselves on their right flank for the Tories to occupy. That the Tories succeeded means that the coalition of voters that the SNP built is fragile.
I'm not amazed that the SNP lost its majority, I was the one of the very few who predicted that here a year ago.
Yet as the SNP move to the centre they leave a gap for Labour on their left and if they fail to deliver independence in this parliament many of the nats' core supporters may well become disillusioned and return to their natural Labour home
Labour's performance as part of Better Together has poisoned the well for Indy supporters voting Labour in the near future.
Labour leadership made it clear they didn't want Independence supporters being part of the party.
It poisoned it for Murphy and London Labour and the legacy of that remained on Thursday but I am not sure that holds for Dugdale, especially if the SNP fail to deliver the independence referendum independence supporters want and deliver a centre/centre right agenda in government
Dugdale is useless, she will be a serial loser. SNP have to stay at the centre , Scotland does not want either a nutjob left wing government or a rabid right wing Tory junta. They need to manage at the edges of right and left and avoid swinging too far either way.
I can see Dugdale making common cause with the Greens on some issues and challenging the SNP from the left
The problem for scottish Labour is that there is already a major centre-left party in scotland, the SNP.
The FPTP system always results in 2 major parties, one on the centre-right and one on the centre-left, once you fall off the top two you need an extraordinary set of circumstances to return, as the Liberals found out 100 years ago.
In the case of scottish Labour, it's leadership continues to be pathetic and too centrist to attract any disillusioned lefties from the SNP if there are any that is.
What they need is a return to local Glasgow roots to get rid of the stigma of them being part of the Edinburgh elite. Glasgow has more leftwing votes than Edinburgh and Dungdale always had zero appeal in those areas, that's why my suggestion was for SLAB to elect a local MSP from Glasgow instead.
As for the the scottish Tories that is simple, the SNP moving to the left to occupy the Labour ground means that they exposed themselves on their right flank for the Tories to occupy. That the Tories succeeded means that the coalition of voters that the SNP built is fragile.
I'm not amazed that the SNP lost its majority, I was the one of the very few who predicted that here a year ago.
Yet as the SNP move to the centre they leave a gap for Labour on their left and if they fail to deliver independence in this parliament many of the nats' core supporters may well become disillusioned and return to their natural Labour home
The SNP can no longer be a party of one size fits all, they can't be both left wing and right wing or liberal, they have to choose.
I suspect they won't and will instead go with malcomg's suggestion of not tacking too far left or right. Not an easy task, but with the fervour of many indy's I think it is more managable than would be the case without that goal, I think people will put up with a lot of compromising of their traditional left/rightness to get it, particularly since many people are not as left/right as they think they are and can justify sticking with a party whose actions do not match their stated ideological position for a long time.
I don't think a big tent approach can be sustained forever, but I think the SNP can put off the choice for awhile, given their current dominant position.
Incidentally I expect the SNP strategy now is to link Davidson to Westminster Conservatives at every possible opportunity. It will probably get as wearisome as hearing Ruth mentioning Independence and referendums.
Sadiq Khan is a surprisingly big story globally, BTW.
American media going big on how the "Trump-style" Tory campaign backfired.
A minor headline on the CNN website does not really count as 'going big', other US media barely mention it
1) CNN so far left - they are the Morning Star of American gutter journalism. 2) Trump hasn't engaged in Islamophobia - his message has been mainly positive - but targeted at the common man, not the intelligentsia or pandering to minority groups.
It has been targeted at the white working class, as Boris managed to convert to his cause but Zac failed to. However Boris was also able to win centrist voters and the jury is still out whether Trump can do the same
As a thought experiment, if David Cameron had held off calling the referendum until the autumn, what do we think the results from Thursday would look like?
As a thought experiment, if David Cameron had held off calling the referendum until the autumn, what do we think the results from Thursday would look like?
Rather than Ken standing for Tooting, as has ruined his reputation, perhaps they could find an A. Hitler. He seems to have public recognition these days, just look at how popular search term in google .
I worked with a chief electrician in Beirut who was called Hitler. I assumed it related to the way he ran the electrical department but it wasn't. His brother was called Rommel. They were a bit puzzled by my surprise. They said if he'd been called 'Hobeika' they'd have understood
Sadiq Khan is a surprisingly big story globally, BTW.
American media going big on how the "Trump-style" Tory campaign backfired.
A minor headline on the CNN website does not really count as 'going big', other US media barely mention it
1) CNN so far left - they are the Morning Star of American gutter journalism. 2) Trump hasn't engaged in Islamophobia - his message has been mainly positive - but targeted at the common man, not the intelligentsia or pandering to minority groups.
It has been targeted at the white working class, as Boris managed to convert to his cause but Zac failed to. However Boris was also able to win centrist voters and the jury is still out whether Trump can do the same
I think you mean WWC males.
One reason the Right is so bad at education policy is that the more you educate people the less they vote for the Right (except for the few who, like Trump, turn Daddy's millions into billions).
Nicola could get a referendum bill through the parliament if she wants to.
Not really.
To get the Greens to support it, she would need to abandon a whole bunch of her more sensible policies.
She may be stupid, but she's not that daft.
The SNP will now regularly have to rely on the pro-indy Greens, who are as bonkers a bunch of ragtag cranks as politics has seen. How will Sturgeon the centrist manage this relationship? What does a big mainstream government have in common with a fringe movement that is to the wellbeing of the economy what the Campbells were to the MacDonalds in the settlements of Glencoe?
You reckon if the polls were 60-40 for independence she wouldn't go shit or bust for a second referendum?
Of course she would … knowing how long a "generation" is in Scotland she'll be able to go 'shit or bust' again at least twice more before the end of the decade.
'Even last month PB had this set of gloomy predictions, which Labour beat:'
Maybe, but as every TV commentator has said at this time in the electoral cycle Labour should be winning hundreds of seats, not at best standing still.
This has been a very weird local election season.
Labour are way down from 2012, yet they are barely losing any seats outside of scotland and they are advancing in some southern areas.
The Tories, despite their dominance in westminster polls, are down too from their 2012 result, but are advancing in scotland.
The LD and UKIP have made gains, but are too small to be significant.
And the SNP has lost it's majority despite Labour falling to bits in scotland.
Different bits of the country are behaving in the opposite way.
If the Tories are to form the opposition to the SNP for the foreseeable future it is worth thinking about where they can go from here. I would suggest their targets would be Aberdeenshire East, Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Aberdeen South and North Kincardine, Angus North and Mearns, Angus South, Perthshire North, Perthshire South and Kinross-Shire, Edinburgh Pentlands and Edinburgh Southern.
Some of these are a serious stretch, some are bordering on fantasy but it is only 10. It is not enough to become the largest party. I don't think the Tories have topped out but I really cannot see them breaking into Glasgow or the surrounding conurbations where most Scots live. To get to largest party they need to change their shape. I still think the Unionist Party is the way forward.
If the Tories are to form the opposition to the SNP for the foreseeable future it is worth thinking about where they can go from here. I would suggest their targets would be Aberdeenshire East, Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Aberdeen South and North Kincardine, Angus North and Mearns, Angus South, Perthshire North, Perthshire South and Kinross-Shire, Edinburgh Pentlands and Edinburgh Southern.
Some of these are a serious stretch, some are bordering on fantasy but it is only 10. It is not enough to become the largest party. I don't think the Tories have topped out but I really cannot see them breaking into Glasgow or the surrounding conurbations where most Scots live. To get to largest party they need to change their shape. I still think the Unionist Party is the way forward.
Yes. What you are really talking about David is the Tories getting back to where they were thirty years or so ago. I think it is realistic, albeit hard - and it is about securing a solid second place, not winning.
If the Tories are to form the opposition to the SNP for the foreseeable future it is worth thinking about where they can go from here. I would suggest their targets would be Aberdeenshire East, Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Aberdeen South and North Kincardine, Angus North and Mearns, Angus South, Perthshire North, Perthshire South and Kinross-Shire, Edinburgh Pentlands and Edinburgh Southern.
Some of these are a serious stretch, some are bordering on fantasy but it is only 10. It is not enough to become the largest party. I don't think the Tories have topped out but I really cannot see them breaking into Glasgow or the surrounding conurbations where most Scots live. To get to largest party they need to change their shape. I still think the Unionist Party is the way forward.
Aberdeen, the Highlands, Edinburgh. Aberdeen is definitely susceptible with the oil crash.
Sadiq Khan is a surprisingly big story globally, BTW.
American media going big on how the "Trump-style" Tory campaign backfired.
A minor headline on the CNN website does not really count as 'going big', other US media barely mention it
1) CNN so far left - they are the Morning Star of American gutter journalism. 2) Trump hasn't engaged in Islamophobia - his message has been mainly positive - but targeted at the common man, not the intelligentsia or pandering to minority groups.
Are you for real? I read the Morning Star somtimes, and look at CNN sometimes. The resemblance is less than obvious.
If the Tories are to form the opposition to the SNP for the foreseeable future it is worth thinking about where they can go from here. I would suggest their targets would be Aberdeenshire East, Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Aberdeen South and North Kincardine, Angus North and Mearns, Angus South, Perthshire North, Perthshire South and Kinross-Shire, Edinburgh Pentlands and Edinburgh Southern.
Some of these are a serious stretch, some are bordering on fantasy but it is only 10. It is not enough to become the largest party. I don't think the Tories have topped out but I really cannot see them breaking into Glasgow or the surrounding conurbations where most Scots live. To get to largest party they need to change their shape. I still think the Unionist Party is the way forward.
What happened to those SNPers that became independents? Are they all MPs ?
Sadiq Khan is a surprisingly big story globally, BTW.
American media going big on how the "Trump-style" Tory campaign backfired.
A minor headline on the CNN website does not really count as 'going big', other US media barely mention it
1) CNN so far left - they are the Morning Star of American gutter journalism. 2) Trump hasn't engaged in Islamophobia - his message has been mainly positive - but targeted at the common man, not the intelligentsia or pandering to minority groups.
It has been targeted at the white working class, as Boris managed to convert to his cause but Zac failed to. However Boris was also able to win centrist voters and the jury is still out whether Trump can do the same
I think you mean WWC males.
One reason the Right is so bad at education policy is that the more you educate people the less they vote for the Right (except for the few who, like Trump, turn Daddy's millions into billions).
Technically the Right tend to win university graduates but not postgraduates, the left tend to win the most and the least educated the right those in the middle (though Trump may well end up winning the least educated and losing the middle too)
Undefined discussion subject.
Comments
American media going big on how the "Trump-style" Tory campaign backfired.
Res gain 3 from Con though Res are also down 3 by ward reorganisation in Molseley
Weybridge Riverside 2 Con 1 LD
wards reorganised previously 3 Con 1 LD
I'm told however that what remains of SLab is the unionist rump, so that's out I guess, plus it suits the SNP to try to be a big tent party for as long as possible, so I guess that option is a no go, for all it would add clarity.
I take the point about purpose, and that SCon will not be able to a challenge SNP dominance due to the lower ceiling of their support, but does SLab have a better ceiling anymore? It might be that no-one has a realistic change of challenging the SNP dominance for now, and their invulnerability will only be challengable due to their own actions, and we won't know if SLab or SCon will be better placed to capitalise until it happens.
On the assumption it will be SLab as it is hard to see SCon doing more than adding a few more seats rather than a second massive increase in support, their purpose is to offer 'competent' left of centre government for indy and non-indy alike. The SNP aren't suffering on the competency front at the moment, but no one can be competent forever and presumably an opportunity will come, unless the SNP are to be the new Liberal party of Japan.
I know the arguments why the results in this locals round are a bad omen for Labour 2020, but they were not so bad as to enable anti-Corbynista to use as a reason why Corbyn obviously needs to go, and part of me wonders if the hanging on in the south and handful of easy wins in big places like Bristol (even if predicted) and London may start to change the narrative a bit. Fact is, Corbyn is preventing wins in the heartlands and is even improving matters in some of them - while other places may not like Corbyn in the same manner, if people start to think Lab under him are winners, some numbers may come back, in a Trump like manner (I feel part of his later success has to be people backing the one who appears to be a winner).
Of course this ignores Scotland, but then most people do.
http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2016/5/7/c633d0cb-a13d-4162-bbc6-cf5a62d2f3d5.jpg
Res gain 5 from Con but lose 3 and gain 1 net loss 2 from reorganised wards
I can't see Tooting going to anyone other than Labour, even though I understand it's a marginal.
The FPTP system always results in 2 major parties, one on the centre-right and one on the centre-left, once you fall off the top two you need an extraordinary set of circumstances to return, as the Liberals found out 100 years ago.
In the case of scottish Labour, it's leadership continues to be pathetic and too centrist to attract any disillusioned lefties from the SNP if there are any that is.
What they need is a return to local Glasgow roots to get rid of the stigma of them being part of the Edinburgh elite. Glasgow has more leftwing votes than Edinburgh and Dungdale always had zero appeal in those areas, that's why my suggestion was for SLAB to elect a local MSP from Glasgow instead.
As for the the scottish Tories that is simple, the SNP moving to the left to occupy the Labour ground means that they exposed themselves on their right flank for the Tories to occupy.
That the Tories succeeded means that the coalition of voters that the SNP built is fragile.
I'm not amazed that the SNP lost its majority, I was the one of the very few who predicted that here a year ago.
A mixture of the young, socially-liberal professionals who've been boosting the Tories in Wandsworth being repelled by the racism, and Eurosceptics being pushed to UKIP or abstention (since the by-election will be held when EURef campaign is in full swing).
How about: "Senior Citizen Smith"
Interestingly in raw vote numbers, Ferguson has got the same number of votes as 2012. Turn out was way up and they all seem to have gone to Corbynistia Rees.
Is that the Corbyn affect, pissed off at incumbent effect, or more awareness that it is something that can be voted on?
But seriously - thanks Mark for the updates.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eArmDpMR_p5op62r6nW_mf7OgoXybDHmgQCiywbp4hs/edit#gid=0
Google doc of all Scottish constituency results
Moral Mandate Analysis
Apparently 360 votes total switched from Con->SNP (305 in Edinburgh Central) and Lab-> SNP (55 in Dumbarton) would have been enough for the SNP to have a Moral Mandate for IndyRef2.
It had a table that projected Labour close to 10 points behind in the national equivalent vote, and I still remember the talk from early this year of Labour losing up to 1000 seats.
Even last month PB had this set of gloomy predictions, which Labour beat:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/05/rallings-thrasher-lab-set-to-lose-150-seats-in-the-may-5th-locals/
Lab Maj Votes (%)
2015 2842 (5.3)
2010 2524 (5.0)
2005 5381 (12.9)
2001 10400 (27.7)
1997 15011 (32.6)
1992 4107 (8.0)
1987 1441 (3.0)
1983 2659 (5.8)
1979 5200 (14.5)
Oct1974 7855 (23.0)
Feb1974 6108 (15.7)
1997 was huge for Labour and took a few elections to return to what looks like a general position of Lab by 5-15%. Unlike other 'marginals' the majority (just) went up in 2015, and even if that was down to Khan having a personal vote, his stock will now never be higher and whoever he backs will surely pick up most of the Lab vote which turned out for Khan.
I lack the patience of knowledge for any sort of indepth analysis, and I don't know London, but it looks like a seat the Tories creep up to be competitive in but never cross the line in first, and with Corbyn popular in London and the Khan effect, and Tories split, it has to be safe. Surely.
As for Scotland, there aren't enough lefty unionists to make that your policy platform and expect success. Labour needs to reflect the views of working class Scots, and if that means being open minded on the Independence question, so be it.
It gives Corbyn and his supporters time to wait until the next electoral test, when things might be even more favourable even if nothing to do with them.
Labour leadership made it clear they didn't want Independence supporters being part of the party.
1 ward to come but Conservatives have lost control of council
Final ward 2 Con 1 Res makes 22/19/7
I see Bristol North is definitely odd man out in Bristol - increased Tory majority in 2015)
Right now the SNP has a strategic choice to make, either abandon their nationalist right and focus on keeping their dominance of the left, which will result in a scottish Tory renaissance, or forget about the left and try too keep the nationalist right inside the tent and risk a scottish Labour renaissance.
The SNP can no longer be a party of one size fits all, they can't be both left wing and right wing or liberal, they have to choose.
Constituencies with Majority < 1000
Lab: 1
Con: 3
<2000
Lab: 3
Con: 6
SNP: 1
<4000
Lab: 3
Con: 6
SNP: 13
This includes the Islands so that's two storming results in Orkney and Shetland for the LDs.
My commiserations John.
PBers to storm the area en masse?
The Conservatives were kept crushed by Labour when Labour under Tony Blair kept his right flank covered, but at the expense of giving the SNP space to grow on the progressive side. The SNP can keep Scottish Labour crushed but only by staying firmly left (incidentally, they must do the same to keep the Greens in check).
This should give the Scottish Conservatives space to grow, should they elect to try.
2) Trump hasn't engaged in Islamophobia - his message has been mainly positive - but targeted at the common man, not the intelligentsia or pandering to minority groups.
Does it even matter what the proportions are in NI, given their system?
'Even last month PB had this set of gloomy predictions, which Labour beat:'
Maybe, but as every TV commentator has said at this time in the electoral cycle Labour should be winning hundreds of seats, not at best standing still.
To get the Greens to support it, she would need to abandon a whole bunch of her more sensible policies.
She may be stupid, but she's not that daft.
Bad luck, Mr. O.
St Michaels 3 X Con as expected though new ward includes much of the ( only ) previous Labour ward
I don't think a big tent approach can be sustained forever, but I think the SNP can put off the choice for awhile, given their current dominant position.
Back in the Real World, Nicola can't get IndyRef2 through the Parliament.
She knows, even if the Zoomers haven't caught up yet, although maybe one has...
https://twitter.com/ducksscotland/status/728559618801176576
I worked with a chief electrician in Beirut who was called Hitler. I assumed it related to the way he ran the electrical department but it wasn't. His brother was called Rommel. They were a bit puzzled by my surprise. They said if he'd been called 'Hobeika' they'd have understood
One reason the Right is so bad at education policy is that the more you educate people the less they vote for the Right (except for the few who, like Trump, turn Daddy's millions into billions).
Of course she would … knowing how long a "generation" is in Scotland she'll be able to go 'shit or bust' again at least twice more before the end of the decade.
Labour are way down from 2012, yet they are barely losing any seats outside of scotland and they are advancing in some southern areas.
The Tories, despite their dominance in westminster polls, are down too from their 2012 result, but are advancing in scotland.
The LD and UKIP have made gains, but are too small to be significant.
And the SNP has lost it's majority despite Labour falling to bits in scotland.
Different bits of the country are behaving in the opposite way.
I would suggest their targets would be Aberdeenshire East, Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Aberdeen South and North Kincardine, Angus North and Mearns, Angus South, Perthshire North, Perthshire South and Kinross-Shire, Edinburgh Pentlands and Edinburgh Southern.
Some of these are a serious stretch, some are bordering on fantasy but it is only 10. It is not enough to become the largest party. I don't think the Tories have topped out but I really cannot see them breaking into Glasgow or the surrounding conurbations where most Scots live. To get to largest party they need to change their shape. I still think the Unionist Party is the way forward.
I'd add Moray to your list.
Aberdeen is definitely susceptible with the oil crash.