Whether they have inherited the casual racism / rape apologism remains to be seen, or whether they will be a semi-Islamist party like Respect.
They were also founded by the *Irish* SWP, so there will be cross-currents there, even though the Irish SWP was founded by people from the English SWP.
Tooting will be a comfortable Lab hold imo. Governments rarely gain seats in by-elections and this government will be vigorously tearing itself a new one in the run up.
I think there is also an additional factor, in that demographically Tory voters in Tooting are proportionally more likely to have been disgusted by the Tories' racist mayoral campaign.
The Wandsworth constituencies are unusual, as they're some of the only Tory areas with very high young populations: Battersea and Tooting are #1 and #2 in the 25-44 age bracket of any constituency anywhere in the UK, and Putney is #8. They are also right near the bottom of the league table for numbers of pensioners. The Tories really punch above their national weight with the under-45 demographic in Wandsworth because many of them work in the City, don't really believe in high government spending and like low taxes.
However, my suspicion is that however economically conservative they may be, most young people hate racism more than they like low taxes, and may have been turned away by the Republican-style mayoral campaign they will have just witnessed. I'm not sure many of them will be able to stomach putting a cross in the Tory box just a few weeks after.
Whether they have inherited the casual racism / rape apologism remains to be seen, or whether they will be a semi-Islamist party like Respect.
They were also founded by the *Irish* SWP, so there will be cross-currents there, even though the Irish SWP was founded by people from the English SWP.
My explanation FPT was that they are Trots without the Trot aspect. They like to parade up and down the road talking about social justice, university fees, Palestine, etc. It is not coherent enough to be loony; the unifying agenda stays vague and voters like it that way. It's very post-modern, tailored to whatever your own hobby-horse is. There is zero evidence of racism or sexism among them. They are the same party north and south of the border with 3 seats in the Dail.
Khan has to be an Atheist Mayor. He won't manage to achieve that though. Messy.
Khan will be fine. He is experienced with new labour limbo dancing & the scrutiny of London mayoral is not that great. It is only if something big like tube strike when people take much notice. Otherwise than that people are really see the cheerleading for London & London events
I've not seen the Rallings & Thrasher projections yet.
A straw in the wind for CON minority in 2020 perhaps. But very early days of course
I think the results and projections point to another Tory majority in 2020.
If, as is likely, the referendum is a narrow remain a Tory minority in 2020 is very likely, it will be 2005 in reverse, Tory voters shifting to UKIP over Europe as Labour voters shifted to the LDs over Iraq but an opposition leader unpalatable to swing voters ensures the incumbent party has most seats despite losses
Northern Irish Nationalist (SDLP+SF) vote at 36.0%, lowest level since Good Friday 1998.
Since last time, SF and SDLP each lost 11k votes but PBP picked up 8k. DUP up 4k, UUP stable, Alliance down 2k. The Greens are mostly young... most young people are Catholic... so they could be a beneficiary too. But I still think the largest motive is disillusionment with the post-Good Friday settlement. People see the flag protests and they realise the majority's attitude just hasn't changed, then they see welfare reform and they recognise SF doesn't look after their economic interests either. So they vote PBP if they are in deprived urban areas, or they stay home.
I've not seen the Rallings & Thrasher projections yet.
A straw in the wind for CON minority in 2020 perhaps. But very early days of course
Academics say the numbers are very good for Tories.
No they don't. There has been a 2% swing to Labour as compared to this point in the last electoral cycle, which suggests Tory minority.
Figures I have seen quoted from academic modelling are predicted 39/30 & 37/30 for 2020 and 92% Tories to win.
Indeed - there is an extremely high probability Tories will get most votes in 2020, but, as 2010 showed, that is not necessarily the same as getting a majority.
If there was a swing to Labour in 2016 as compared to 2011, then it follows to expect a swing to Labour in 2020 as compared to 2015. And any swing to Labour no matter how small most likely means no Tory majority.
In reality far too many things could happen by 2020. Tories will have a different leader (and we have no idea who it will be), labour could have a different leader (or.perhaps.not) & I think the biggest uncertainty the economy.
If we knew it was going to be Cameron vs jezza I think you could be more certain that Tories will get 36-37% come what may.
I've not seen the Rallings & Thrasher projections yet.
A straw in the wind for CON minority in 2020 perhaps. But very early days of course
I think the results and projections point to another Tory majority in 2020.
A lot depends on the NEV in the future locals. If Labour keep it at +1% they are in desperate trouble of course. Next year Jezza will need to win by 7 or so to stay on track.
I've not seen the Rallings & Thrasher projections yet.
A straw in the wind for CON minority in 2020 perhaps. But very early days of course
Academics say the numbers are very good for Tories.
No they don't. There has been a 2% swing to Labour as compared to this point in the last electoral cycle, which suggests Tory minority.
Figures I have seen quoted from academic modelling are predicted 39/30 & 37/30 for 2020 and 92% Tories to win.
Indeed - there is an extremely high probability Tories will get most votes in 2020, but, as 2010 showed, that is not necessarily the same as getting a majority.
If there was a swing to Labour in 2016 as compared to 2011, then it follows to expect a swing to Labour in 2020 as compared to 2015. And any swing to Labour no matter how small most likely means no Tory majority.
39/30 or 37/30 is tory majority...which are the two sets of figures released by two different academic models. But as I say in other post, lots of flux & uncertainty with change of leader(s) & high potential for choppy economy.
I am going to wait and see at least 12 months before even starting to think about my betting positions for 2020. At the moment there is no real signs corbynism is sweeping the nation, but a long way to go.
Re podcast c. 13mins I know Saint Ruth Malleus Scotorum is the toast of London town, but I can think of another politician leader who increased their party's seat total by more than 16, more than doubling it, overtaking a larger party to become not merely the official opposition in Scotland but the largest party by far. Another female, Scottish leader, barely a year ago, in fact, but down in London some people seem to stop thinking at Alex Salmond.
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
Khan has to be an Atheist Mayor. He won't manage to achieve that though. Messy.
Khan will be fine. He is experienced with new labour limbo dancing & the scrutiny of London mayoral is not that great. It is only if something big like tube strike when people take much notice. Otherwise than that people are really see the cheerleading for London & London events
Yes - it's a low bar to vault over. It's hard to think of much that Mayors have actually done. Boris completed the bikes project that Ken started (and got the credit for it, big time) and he got a new bus expensively designed and commissioned a cablecar. Ken had the congestion charge. Hard to think of much else apart from cheerleading and events. Tube strikes are generally regarded like bad weather - bloody nuisance but brief, and the Mayor isn't really expected to wave a magic wand to stop them ever happening. I think Khan's problem may be more exaggerated expectations - rents are still going to be sky high in 4 years' time even if he succeeds in forcing more affordable construction.
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
Podcast 17m Sadiq Khan "not stellar"! This is the impact that thinking too much expectations has on bettors and psephologists. Eventually you come around to thinking that it's better to lose well like Ruth Davidson than to win as expected like Sadiq Khan. Your own expectations start to distort your viewpoint.
Re podcast c. 13mins I know Saint Ruth Malleus Scotorum is the toast of London town, but I can think of another politician leader who increased their party's seat total by more than 16, more than doubling it, overtaking a larger party to become not merely the official opposition in Scotland but the largest party by far. Another female, Scottish leader, barely a year ago, in fact, but down in London some people seem to stop thinking at Alex Salmond.
Like who? He's focused on as, to date, being more well known and more divisive, so more effective to focus on. That other one, since we are not naming her apparently, doesn't really have any detractors outside Scotland yet.
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
Two days ago, Zac for Mayor Too Close To Call Now, Mex types for Trump Trending PB Trump Ramping putting native PB Tory Ramping out of business. We need a wall.
Khan has to be an Atheist Mayor. He won't manage to achieve that though. Messy.
Khan will be fine. He is experienced with new labour limbo dancing & the scrutiny of London mayoral is not that great. It is only if something big like tube strike when people take much notice. Otherwise than that people are really see the cheerleading for London & London events
Yes - it's a low bar to vault over. It's hard to think of much that Mayors have actually done. Boris completed the bikes project that Ken started (and got the credit for it, big time) and he got a new bus expensively designed and commissioned a cablecar. Ken had the congestion charge. Hard to think of much else apart from cheerleading and events. Tube strikes are generally regarded like bad weather - bloody nuisance but brief, and the Mayor isn't really expected to wave a magic wand to stop them ever happening. I think Khan's problem may be more exaggerated expectations - rents are still going to be sky high in 4 years' time even if he succeeds in forcing more affordable construction.
Khan also has no control on the drivers of London's rental / house price problem, which are incredibly long standing i.e. London is THE city for England. I know we have great cities like Birmingham, Manchester etc, but most major companies are head quartered in London and UK and foreign graduates want to work there. Khan if he is doing his job right, will probably make that worse, i.e. cheerleading the greatness of London, while also having no control of immigration etc. He also has limited wiggle room for planning etc, as London being an old city, one without many skyscrappers etc mean building in general is extremely problematic and comes up against a huge number of hurdles.
I've not seen the Rallings & Thrasher projections yet.
A straw in the wind for CON minority in 2020 perhaps. But very early days of course
Academics say the numbers are very good for Tories.
No they don't. There has been a 2% swing to Labour as compared to this point in the last electoral cycle, which suggests Tory minority.
Figures I have seen quoted from academic modelling are predicted 39/30 & 37/30 for 2020 and 92% Tories to win.
Indeed - there is an extremely high probability Tories will get most votes in 2020, but, as 2010 showed, that is not necessarily the same as getting a majority.
If there was a swing to Labour in 2016 as compared to 2011, then it follows to expect a swing to Labour in 2020 as compared to 2015. And any swing to Labour no matter how small most likely means no Tory majority.
London and Wales showed only modest swings from Conservative to Labour, compared to 2015, and Scotland showed a swing from Labour to Conservative. WRT NEV, it's probably best to wait until Rallings and Thrasher have cinched the numbers.
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
Two days ago, Zac for Mayor Too Close To Call Now, Mex types for Trump Trending PB Trump Ramping putting native PB Tory Ramping out of business. We need a wall.
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
Two days ago, Zac for Mayor Too Close To Call Now, Mex types for Trump Trending PB Trump Ramping putting native PB Tory Ramping out of business. We need a wall.
I don't recall many people giving the mayoral race as being TCTC reports much credence, and TimB posed the question of if 'mex types for Trump' was a trend, so not even saying it definitely was (though it sounds unlikely).
Perhaps when you want to mock 'ramping' by a group of others you could try waiting to see if it will be the case? You'd have done better to mock predictions of huge labour losses, which were definitely more widespread.
I can't see how this will be ruled legal and / or there be a simple work around i.e. have a local purchase the property then immediately sell it on or rent out / "sell" (as in basically give it a relative) your existing home when you go to buy one in St Ives, then later do a switch a roo.
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
There will be a few Hispanics for whom that is the case, the vast majority have family in Mexico or elsewhere in Latin America and do not want a new 'Berlin Wall' separating them from them
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
Two days ago, Zac for Mayor Too Close To Call Now, Mex types for Trump Trending PB Trump Ramping putting native PB Tory Ramping out of business. We need a wall.
I don't recall many people giving the mayoral race as being TCTC reports much credence, and TimB posed the question of if 'mex types for Trump' was a trend, so not even saying it definitely was (though it sounds unlikely).
Perhaps when you want to mock 'ramping' by a group of others you could try waiting to see if it will be the case? You'd have done better to mock predictions of huge labour losses, which were definitely more widespread.
I think it was pretty obvious how the Mayoral race would finish.
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
Two days ago, Zac for Mayor Too Close To Call Now, Mex types for Trump Trending PB Trump Ramping putting native PB Tory Ramping out of business. We need a wall.
I don't recall many people giving the mayoral race as being TCTC reports much credence, and TimB posed the question of if 'mex types for Trump' was a trend, so not even saying it definitely was (though it sounds unlikely).
Perhaps when you want to mock 'ramping' by a group of others you could try waiting to see if it will be the case? You'd have done better to mock predictions of huge labour losses, which were definitely more widespread.
The predictions of Labour losses made sense. They just didn't come true. It's fine for people to sympathise with their own party, but anecdotes and rumours deserve to be called out on a site where thousands of pounds may be staked on a consensus.
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
Two days ago, Zac for Mayor Too Close To Call Now, Mex types for Trump Trending PB Trump Ramping putting native PB Tory Ramping out of business. We need a wall.
For a really professional finish, use Hadrian?
We need to keep out the Scots* until someone can work out what the hell is going on! * except Ruth
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
Two days ago, Zac for Mayor Too Close To Call Now, Mex types for Trump Trending PB Trump Ramping putting native PB Tory Ramping out of business. We need a wall.
For a really professional finish, use Hadrian?
We need to keep out the Scots* until someone can work out what the hell is going on! * except Ruth
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV threads entering PB.com, until our forum's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
Two days ago, Zac for Mayor Too Close To Call Now, Mex types for Trump Trending PB Trump Ramping putting native PB Tory Ramping out of business. We need a wall.
I don't recall many people giving the mayoral race as being TCTC reports much credence, and TimB posed the question of if 'mex types for Trump' was a trend, so not even saying it definitely was (though it sounds unlikely).
Perhaps when you want to mock 'ramping' by a group of others you could try waiting to see if it will be the case? You'd have done better to mock predictions of huge labour losses, which were definitely more widespread.
Quantity 1 is hardly a statistically valid sample, though it is 1 more than I expected to see.
I have no idea whatsoever if this is the beginning of a trend or not, but if so would have expected to see signs before now.
But this potus cycle is so unlike any other that anything is possible.
Interesting. Ruth already showing the others how opposition should work
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson has urged Holyrood opposition parties to unite to hold the SNP government to account.
She said she wanted to consult with other parties to find ways of creating "a parliament with teeth".
Her suggestions include ensuring the conveners of certain committees come from opposition parties, and for opposition party spokesmen and women to be given greater opportunity to question ministers.
And if that isn't enough to get the Nats spluttering, there is the small matter of Nicola's confirmation as First Minister. I understand it needs a vote, for which she doesn't have the numbers...
Khan has to be an Atheist Mayor. He won't manage to achieve that though. Messy.
Khan will be fine. He is experienced with new labour limbo dancing & the scrutiny of London mayoral is not that great. It is only if something big like tube strike when people take much notice. Otherwise than that people are really see the cheerleading for London & London events
Yes - it's a low bar to vault over. It's hard to think of much that Mayors have actually done. Boris completed the bikes project that Ken started (and got the credit for it, big time) and he got a new bus expensively designed and commissioned a cablecar. Ken had the congestion charge. Hard to think of much else apart from cheerleading and events. Tube strikes are generally regarded like bad weather - bloody nuisance but brief, and the Mayor isn't really expected to wave a magic wand to stop them ever happening. I think Khan's problem may be more exaggerated expectations - rents are still going to be sky high in 4 years' time even if he succeeds in forcing more affordable construction.
Khan also has no control on the drivers of London's rental / house price problem, which are incredibly long standing i.e. London is THE city for England. I know we have great cities like Birmingham, Manchester etc, but most major companies are head quartered in London and UK and foreign graduates want to work there. Khan if he is doing his job right, will probably make that worse, i.e. cheerleading the greatness of London, while also having no control of immigration etc. He also has limited wiggle room for planning etc, as London being an old city, one without many skyscrappers etc mean building in general is extremely problematic and comes up against a huge number of hurdles.
Interesting anecdote.
A serial entrepreneur friend of mine from 'oop North, who's built several successful tech companies in London, decided that for his next business, he'd create it in Manchester (near to his Cheshire pile).
He thought recruiting techies in Manchester (albeit with some mildly esoteric skill sets) would be cheaper than London. The reality was that there was a much smaller skills pool, and that he's really struggled to man his firm. The salaries he's paying are actually higher than London, because most 22 year computer science graduates head for the excitement of London and Silicon Roundabout.
(Given how much cheaper it is to live in Manchester than Shoreditch, this may sound absurd. But the reality is that the incredible cycle of creation and destruction of small tech companies in London means that young tech people are never unemployed for long. Joining a start-up in Manchester carries greater risks than joining one in London.)
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
Two days ago, Zac for Mayor Too Close To Call Now, Mex types for Trump Trending PB Trump Ramping putting native PB Tory Ramping out of business. We need a wall.
For a really professional finish, use Hadrian?
We need to keep out the Scots* until someone can work out what the hell is going on! * except Ruth
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV threads entering PB.com, until our forum's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!
Is this phrase a quote from a film or some sort of cultural reference which has gone over my head, Sunil? It's just that you keep using it and I'm now convinced that I'm the only person in the room who doesn't get the joke. Sorry in advance.
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
Two days ago, Zac for Mayor Too Close To Call Now, Mex types for Trump Trending PB Trump Ramping putting native PB Tory Ramping out of business. We need a wall.
For a really professional finish, use Hadrian?
We need to keep out the Scots* until someone can work out what the hell is going on! * except Ruth
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV threads entering PB.com, until our forum's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!
Is this phrase a quote from a film or some sort of cultural reference which has gone over my head, Sunil? It's just that you keep using it and I'm now convinced that I'm the only person in the room who doesn't get the joke. Sorry in advance.
“Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on,” he said, adding the word “hell" for emphasis this time.
A serial entrepreneur friend of mine from 'oop North, who's built several successful tech companies in London, decided that for his next business, he'd create it in Manchester (near to his Cheshire pile).
He thought recruiting techies in Manchester (albeit with some mildly esoteric skill sets) would be cheaper than London. The reality was that there was a much smaller skills pool, and that he's really struggled to man his firm. The salaries he's paying are actually higher than London, because most 22 year computer science graduates head for the excitement of London and Silicon Roundabout.
(Given how much cheaper it is to live in Manchester than Shoreditch, this may sound absurd. But the reality is that the incredible cycle of creation and destruction of small tech companies in London means that young tech people are never unemployed for long. Joining a start-up in Manchester carries greater risks than joining one in London.)
I can believe this. My first job out when I graduated from degree #1, I was paid way over the odds for that exact reason. Was based in a lovely part of the country, but deadly dull and they really struggled to get excitable 22 year olds to join the start up. Ultimately, the company failed and I think this inability to convince enough really bright minds was a significant factor as although the initial product was good, it needs talented and motivated people to really drive it on (and there weren't enough of them).
A serial entrepreneur friend of mine from 'oop North, who's built several successful tech companies in London, decided that for his next business, he'd create it in Manchester (near to his Cheshire pile).
He thought recruiting techies in Manchester (albeit with some mildly esoteric skill sets) would be cheaper than London. The reality was that there was a much smaller skills pool, and that he's really struggled to man his firm. The salaries he's paying are actually higher than London, because most 22 year computer science graduates head for the excitement of London and Silicon Roundabout.
(Given how much cheaper it is to live in Manchester than Shoreditch, this may sound absurd. But the reality is that the incredible cycle of creation and destruction of small tech companies in London means that young tech people are never unemployed for long. Joining a start-up in Manchester carries greater risks than joining one in London.)
This is another example where we should learn from our friends across the channel. France is no less centred on Paris but they have been more successful in creating industrial hubs in other regions with their competitiveness centres policy - http://competitivite.gouv.fr/
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV threads entering PB.com, until our forum's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!
It's wrong to have a thread on AV while elections are still ongoing...
Interesting. Ruth already showing the others how opposition should work
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson has urged Holyrood opposition parties to unite to hold the SNP government to account.
She said she wanted to consult with other parties to find ways of creating "a parliament with teeth".
Her suggestions include ensuring the conveners of certain committees come from opposition parties, and for opposition party spokesmen and women to be given greater opportunity to question ministers.
And if that isn't enough to get the Nats spluttering, there is the small matter of Nicola's confirmation as First Minister. I understand it needs a vote, for which she doesn't have the numbers...
So what concessions is she offering? ----------------------------------------------------- She does have the votes. The Greens will support her. It will be stupid to try and stop her from becoming FM.
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
Two days ago, Zac for Mayor Too Close To Call Now, Mex types for Trump Trending PB Trump Ramping putting native PB Tory Ramping out of business. We need a wall.
For a really professional finish, use Hadrian?
We need to keep out the Scots* until someone can work out what the hell is going on! * except Ruth
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV threads entering PB.com, until our forum's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!
Is this phrase a quote from a film or some sort of cultural reference which has gone over my head, Sunil? It's just that you keep using it and I'm now convinced that I'm the only person in the room who doesn't get the joke. Sorry in advance.
“Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on,” he said, adding the word “hell" for emphasis this time.
A serial entrepreneur friend of mine from 'oop North, who's built several successful tech companies in London, decided that for his next business, he'd create it in Manchester (near to his Cheshire pile).
He thought recruiting techies in Manchester (albeit with some mildly esoteric skill sets) would be cheaper than London. The reality was that there was a much smaller skills pool, and that he's really struggled to man his firm. The salaries he's paying are actually higher than London, because most 22 year computer science graduates head for the excitement of London and Silicon Roundabout.
(Given how much cheaper it is to live in Manchester than Shoreditch, this may sound absurd. But the reality is that the incredible cycle of creation and destruction of small tech companies in London means that young tech people are never unemployed for long. Joining a start-up in Manchester carries greater risks than joining one in London.)
This is another example where we should learn from our friends across the channel. France is no less centred on Paris but they have been more successful in creating industrial hubs in other regions with their competitiveness centres - http://competitivite.gouv.fr/
If I understand correctly, Germany is far more "balanced" in this respect. In that you have different areas / cities that centre around different types of industries, so you don't end up with all the young graduates heading for just Berlin or just Frankfurt.
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
Two days ago, Zac for Mayor Too Close To Call Now, Mex types for Trump Trending PB Trump Ramping putting native PB Tory Ramping out of business. We need a wall.
I don't recall many people giving the mayoral race as being TCTC reports much credence, and TimB posed the question of if 'mex types for Trump' was a trend, so not even saying it definitely was (though it sounds unlikely).
Perhaps when you want to mock 'ramping' by a group of others you could try waiting to see if it will be the case? You'd have done better to mock predictions of huge labour losses, which were definitely more widespread.
The predictions of Labour losses made sense. They just didn't come true. It's fine for people to sympathise with their own party, but anecdotes and rumours deserve to be called out on a site where thousands of pounds may be staked on a consensus.
Interesting. Ruth already showing the others how opposition should work
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson has urged Holyrood opposition parties to unite to hold the SNP government to account.
She said she wanted to consult with other parties to find ways of creating "a parliament with teeth".
Her suggestions include ensuring the conveners of certain committees come from opposition parties, and for opposition party spokesmen and women to be given greater opportunity to question ministers.
And if that isn't enough to get the Nats spluttering, there is the small matter of Nicola's confirmation as First Minister. I understand it needs a vote, for which she doesn't have the numbers...
So what concessions is she offering?
----------------------------------------------------- She does have the votes. The Greens will support her. It will be stupid to try and stop her from becoming FM.
Sturgeon will have to dance a Green jig if she wants their support and that might upset some of the SNP's funders.
A serial entrepreneur friend of mine from 'oop North, who's built several successful tech companies in London, decided that for his next business, he'd create it in Manchester (near to his Cheshire pile).
He thought recruiting techies in Manchester (albeit with some mildly esoteric skill sets) would be cheaper than London. The reality was that there was a much smaller skills pool, and that he's really struggled to man his firm. The salaries he's paying are actually higher than London, because most 22 year computer science graduates head for the excitement of London and Silicon Roundabout.
(Given how much cheaper it is to live in Manchester than Shoreditch, this may sound absurd. But the reality is that the incredible cycle of creation and destruction of small tech companies in London means that young tech people are never unemployed for long. Joining a start-up in Manchester carries greater risks than joining one in London.)
This is another example where we should learn from our friends across the channel. France is no less centred on Paris but they have been more successful in creating industrial hubs in other regions with their competitiveness centres - http://competitivite.gouv.fr/
If I understand correctly, Germany is far more "balanced" in this respect. In that you have different areas / cities that centre around different types of industries, so you don't end up with all the young graduates heading for just Berlin or just Frankfurt.
True but it's just not viable for us to replicate how Germany is organised because it's rooted in their late unification as a nation state and then reaffirmation of a regional strategy by Adenauer after the war. France is a better model because they have the same fundamental challenge of over-centralisation around the capital city.
I replied to you at some lenght at the fag end of the last thread. Unfortunately I am typing on the phone in the semi gloom of the Gibraltar Darts Trophy and I can't see how to FPT it on to this thread. So if you are still interested in an answer it's back that way <----
A serial entrepreneur friend of mine from 'oop North, who's built several successful tech companies in London, decided that for his next business, he'd create it in Manchester (near to his Cheshire pile).
He thought recruiting techies in Manchester (albeit with some mildly esoteric skill sets) would be cheaper than London. The reality was that there was a much smaller skills pool, and that he's really struggled to man his firm. The salaries he's paying are actually higher than London, because most 22 year computer science graduates head for the excitement of London and Silicon Roundabout.
(Given how much cheaper it is to live in Manchester than Shoreditch, this may sound absurd. But the reality is that the incredible cycle of creation and destruction of small tech companies in London means that young tech people are never unemployed for long. Joining a start-up in Manchester carries greater risks than joining one in London.)
This is another example where we should learn from our friends across the channel. France is no less centred on Paris but they have been more successful in creating industrial hubs in other regions with their competitiveness centres - http://competitivite.gouv.fr/
If I understand correctly, Germany is far more "balanced" in this respect. In that you have different areas / cities that centre around different types of industries, so you don't end up with all the young graduates heading for just Berlin or just Frankfurt.
True but it's just not viable for us to replicate how Germany is organised because it's rooted in their late unification as a nation state and then reaffirmation of a regional strategy by Adenauer after the war. France is a better model because they have the same fundamental challenge of over-centralisation around the capital city.
Why can't the British be more like the French?
Sounds like it should have been a song title from My Fair Lady.
I've not seen the Rallings & Thrasher projections yet.
A straw in the wind for CON minority in 2020 perhaps. But very early days of course
Academics say the numbers are very good for Tories.
No they don't. There has been a 2% swing to Labour as compared to this point in the last electoral cycle, which suggests Tory minority.
Figures I have seen quoted from academic modelling are predicted 39/30 & 37/30 for 2020 and 92% Tories to win.
Indeed - there is an extremely high probability Tories will get most votes in 2020, but, as 2010 showed, that is not necessarily the same as getting a majority.
If there was a swing to Labour in 2016 as compared to 2011, then it follows to expect a swing to Labour in 2020 as compared to 2015. And any swing to Labour no matter how small most likely means no Tory majority.
39/30 or 37/30 is tory majority...which are the two sets of figures released by two different academic models. But as I say in other post, lots of flux & uncertainty with change of leader(s) & high potential for choppy economy.
I am going to wait and see at least 12 months before even starting to think about my betting positions for 2020. At the moment there is no real signs corbynism is sweeping the nation, but a long way to go.
A lot depends on the Lib Dem vote. Remember the Tories won in 2015 not because there was a swing from Labour to Tory. But the LD vote collapsed.
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
Trump has just been talking about this in his speech, saying that Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham are not honourable people. Lindsey Graham in particular was a target for his invective.
I replied to you at some lenght at the fag end of the last thread. Unfortunately I am typing on the phone in the semi gloom of the Gibraltar Darts Trophy and I can't see how to FPT it on to this thread. So if you are still interested in an answer it's back that way <----</p>
I've not seen the Rallings & Thrasher projections yet.
A straw in the wind for CON minority in 2020 perhaps. But very early days of course
Academics say the numbers are very good for Tories.
No they don't. There has been a 2% swing to Labour as compared to this point in the last electoral cycle, which suggests Tory minority.
Figures I have seen quoted from academic modelling are predicted 39/30 & 37/30 for 2020 and 92% Tories to win.
Indeed - there is an extremely high probability Tories will get most votes in 2020, but, as 2010 showed, that is not necessarily the same as getting a majority.
If there was a swing to Labour in 2016 as compared to 2011, then it follows to expect a swing to Labour in 2020 as compared to 2015. And any swing to Labour no matter how small most likely means no Tory majority.
39/30 or 37/30 is tory majority...which are the two sets of figures released by two different academic models. But as I say in other post, lots of flux & uncertainty with change of leader(s) & high potential for choppy economy.
I am going to wait and see at least 12 months before even starting to think about my betting positions for 2020. At the moment there is no real signs corbynism is sweeping the nation, but a long way to go.
A lot depends on the Lib Dem vote. Remember the Tories won in 2015 not because there was a swing from Labour to Tory. But the LD vote collapsed.
There was a Lab to Tory swing where it mattered.
Had Labour not lost any seats to the Tories, the Tories wouldn't have a majority.
In reality far too many things could happen by 2020. Tories will have a different leader (and we have no idea who it will be), labour could have a different leader (or.perhaps.not) & I think the biggest uncertainty the economy.
If we knew it was going to be Cameron vs jezza I think you could be more certain that Tories will get 36-37% come what may.
Which Tory party are we talking about ? There will be two after June 23rd and TSE will have to write his AV threads again !
Remember early in the GOP campaign, when all the candidates signed the Pledge to support the eventual nominee? This was aimed at getting Trump not to go 3rd party if not selected.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
Trump has just been talking about this in his speech, saying that Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham are not honourable people. Lindsey Graham in particular was a target for his invective.
A serial entrepreneur friend of mine from 'oop North, who's built several successful tech companies in London, decided that for his next business, he'd create it in Manchester (near to his Cheshire pile).
He thought recruiting techies in Manchester (albeit with some mildly esoteric skill sets) would be cheaper than London. The reality was that there was a much smaller skills pool, and that he's really struggled to man his firm. The salaries he's paying are actually higher than London, because most 22 year computer science graduates head for the excitement of London and Silicon Roundabout.
(Given how much cheaper it is to live in Manchester than Shoreditch, this may sound absurd. But the reality is that the incredible cycle of creation and destruction of small tech companies in London means that young tech people are never unemployed for long. Joining a start-up in Manchester carries greater risks than joining one in London.)
Previous company I worked for was a outsourcing/consulting business based in Newcastle and Edinburgh, was able to hire software developers far below London rates then charge out to London investmemt banks.
Your friend should have based in Glasgow/Edinburgh , huge number of university computing graduates from top computing universities to pull from.
Interesting. Ruth already showing the others how opposition should work...
Based on the recent history of the UUP, the Lib Dems and Scottish Labour, anyone who coalesces with Tories gets crucified. So, yeah, reject Nicola get Osborne won't happen.
Trump: "Bill Clinton was the worst abuser of women in the history of politics. Hillary was an enabler. Some of those women were destroyed, not by him, but by the way she treated them after it went down."
A serial entrepreneur friend of mine from 'oop North, who's built several successful tech companies in London, decided that for his next business, he'd create it in Manchester (near to his Cheshire pile).
He thought recruiting techies in Manchester (albeit with some mildly esoteric skill sets) would be cheaper than London. The reality was that there was a much smaller skills pool, and that he's really struggled to man his firm. The salaries he's paying are actually higher than London, because most 22 year computer science graduates head for the excitement of London and Silicon Roundabout.
(Given how much cheaper it is to live in Manchester than Shoreditch, this may sound absurd. But the reality is that the incredible cycle of creation and destruction of small tech companies in London means that young tech people are never unemployed for long. Joining a start-up in Manchester carries greater risks than joining one in London.)
Previous company I worked for was a outsourcing/consulting business based in Newcastle and Edinburgh, was able to hire software developers far below London rates then charge out to London investmemt banks.
Your friend should have based in Glasgow/Edinburgh , huge number of university computing graduates from top computing universities to pull from.
Manchester is a big university city too, Manchester Uni, UMIST, Man Met and probably the most vibrant city in the north, it is just that London is 20 times the size and only challenged by New York as the global capital
Undefined discussion subject.
Comments
>Rottenborough: who are People Before Profit?
They are the (even more than Mr Corbyn) loony left.
According to Wikipedia mainly founded by the Socialist Workers Party, as were Respect.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People_Before_Profit_Alliance
Whether they have inherited the casual racism / rape apologism remains to be seen, or whether they will be a semi-Islamist party like Respect.
They were also founded by the *Irish* SWP, so there will be cross-currents there, even though the Irish SWP was founded by people from the English SWP.
The Wandsworth constituencies are unusual, as they're some of the only Tory areas with very high young populations: Battersea and Tooting are #1 and #2 in the 25-44 age bracket of any constituency anywhere in the UK, and Putney is #8. They are also right near the bottom of the league table for numbers of pensioners. The Tories really punch above their national weight with the under-45 demographic in Wandsworth because many of them work in the City, don't really believe in high government spending and like low taxes.
However, my suspicion is that however economically conservative they may be, most young people hate racism more than they like low taxes, and may have been turned away by the Republican-style mayoral campaign they will have just witnessed. I'm not sure many of them will be able to stomach putting a cross in the Tory box just a few weeks after.
A link to the tweet that has mysteriously disappeared from my first post.
Satan's Socks @Morrigan_Roars 1h1 hour ago
Is that........is that Katie Hopkins?
http://tinyurl.com/godbd6a
I've not seen the Rallings & Thrasher projections yet.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3578100/Old-guard-Republicans-warm-Trump-Dick-Cheney-Bob-Dole-say-ll-billionaire-s-bid-White-House.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EB7d5n2qZJQ
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eArmDpMR_p5op62r6nW_mf7OgoXybDHmgQCiywbp4hs/edit#gid=0
For Scottish Consituency Votes
Regional Votes and complete D'Hondt Breakdown will need to wait for tomorrow.
Lib Dems scored under 1000 votes in 23 constituencies.
"The Tories have buggered up their broadband promise. The least they could do is admit it"
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/the-tories-have-buggered-up-their-broadband-promise-the-least-they-could-do-is-admit-it/
"@Morrigan_Roars's Tweets are protected.
Only confirmed followers have access to @Morrigan_Roars's Tweets and complete profile. Click the "Follow" button to send a follow request."
Northern Irish Nationalist (SDLP+SF) vote at 36.0%, lowest level since Good Friday 1998.
P/S he's welcome to 'em.
If there was a swing to Labour in 2016 as compared to 2011, then it follows to expect a swing to Labour in 2020 as compared to 2015. And any swing to Labour no matter how small most likely means no Tory majority.
If we knew it was going to be Cameron vs jezza I think you could be more certain that Tories will get 36-37% come what may.
Random fact (ii): the two highest percentage majorities (ex-SNP again), were the LibDems in Orkney and in Shetland.
Edit to add: I'm wrong! The Conservatives in Ettrick managed the highest non-SNP total
I am going to wait and see at least 12 months before even starting to think about my betting positions for 2020. At the moment there is no real signs corbynism is sweeping the nation, but a long way to go.
I've added each Constituencies Region to the Sheet.
I know Saint Ruth Malleus Scotorum is the toast of London town, but I can think of another politician leader who increased their party's seat total by more than 16, more than doubling it, overtaking a larger party to become not merely the official opposition in Scotland but the largest party by far. Another female, Scottish leader, barely a year ago, in fact, but down in London some people seem to stop thinking at Alex Salmond.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
That's the ticket.
That's obviously not the case now, and all the candidates signed the pledge.
Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham signed the pledge also, but are now refusing to support Trump.
O/T saw a mex type in a t shirt today handing out Republican leaflets - slogan on the shirt read "Hispanics for the wall". I asked him why and he said he wanted to prevent illegals from stealing his job. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?
Sadiq Khan "not stellar"!
This is the impact that thinking too much expectations has on bettors and psephologists. Eventually you come around to thinking that it's better to lose well like Ruth Davidson than to win as expected like Sadiq Khan.
Your own expectations start to distort your viewpoint.
Now, Mex types for Trump Trending
PB Trump Ramping putting native PB Tory Ramping out of business. We need a wall.
Perhaps when you want to mock 'ramping' by a group of others you could try waiting to see if it will be the case? You'd have done better to mock predictions of huge labour losses, which were definitely more widespread.
I can't see how this will be ruled legal and / or there be a simple work around i.e. have a local purchase the property then immediately sell it on or rent out / "sell" (as in basically give it a relative) your existing home when you go to buy one in St Ives, then later do a switch a roo.
It's fine for people to sympathise with their own party, but anecdotes and rumours deserve to be called out on a site where thousands of pounds may be staked on a consensus.
* except Ruth
I have no idea whatsoever if this is the beginning of a trend or not, but if so would have expected to see signs before now.
But this potus cycle is so unlike any other that anything is possible.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/729033620854321152
And if that isn't enough to get the Nats spluttering, there is the small matter of Nicola's confirmation as First Minister. I understand it needs a vote, for which she doesn't have the numbers...
So what concessions is she offering?
I would rather headbutt the wall for hours on end than go back to AV, PR, PR^2 debates.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-36219178
A serial entrepreneur friend of mine from 'oop North, who's built several successful tech companies in London, decided that for his next business, he'd create it in Manchester (near to his Cheshire pile).
He thought recruiting techies in Manchester (albeit with some mildly esoteric skill sets) would be cheaper than London. The reality was that there was a much smaller skills pool, and that he's really struggled to man his firm. The salaries he's paying are actually higher than London, because most 22 year computer science graduates head for the excitement of London and Silicon Roundabout.
(Given how much cheaper it is to live in Manchester than Shoreditch, this may sound absurd. But the reality is that the incredible cycle of creation and destruction of small tech companies in London means that young tech people are never unemployed for long. Joining a start-up in Manchester carries greater risks than joining one in London.)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/12/07/donald-trump-calls-for-total-and-complete-shutdown-of-muslims-entering-the-united-states/
And if that isn't enough to get the Nats spluttering, there is the small matter of Nicola's confirmation as First Minister. I understand it needs a vote, for which she doesn't have the numbers...
So what concessions is she offering?
-----------------------------------------------------
She does have the votes. The Greens will support her. It will be stupid to try and stop her from becoming FM.
I knew I was missing something. Much appreciated.
She does have the votes. The Greens will support her. It will be stupid to try and stop her from becoming FM.
Sturgeon will have to dance a Green jig if she wants their support and that might upset some of the SNP's funders.
I replied to you at some lenght at the fag end of the last thread. Unfortunately I am typing on the phone in the semi gloom of the Gibraltar Darts Trophy and I can't see how to FPT it on to this thread.
So if you are still interested in an answer it's back that way <----
Sounds like it should have been a song title from My Fair Lady.
Had Labour not lost any seats to the Tories, the Tories wouldn't have a majority.
Your friend should have based in Glasgow/Edinburgh , huge number of university computing graduates from top computing universities to pull from.
So, yeah, reject Nicola get Osborne won't happen.