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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and still lost

One of the patterns that have emerged with a lot of the EU referendum polling is that the over 65s favour Brexit by a substantial margin, which gives the Leaver side a lot of hope that they may win the referendum on June 23rd, because older voters have had a higher turnout than younger voters in past elections.

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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916
    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Dream on, Remain loser!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009

    Dream on, Remain loser!

    Like.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    There's a Y in Thursday 23rd June. That's why Brexit won't win.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Sky News has learnt that the Prime Minister and "senior members of the Cabinet" are expected to attend an event organised by the World Economic Forum (WEF) this month where he will tell business leaders that the economic case for remaining in Europe is overwhelming.

    Only pro-European Union (EU) ministers are initially likely to be invited to attend the event, Westminster sources said on Sunday, meaning that depending upon its cost it could be regarded as campaign activity intended to promote the case against leaving the EU.
    http://news.sky.com/story/1692499/cameron-risks-row-over-eu-campaign-event
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916
    Paul Merton's Secret Stations on ITV right now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2016

    Paul Merton's Secret Stations on ITV right now.

    C4, the Durrells is on ITV right now
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited May 2016
    An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it

    http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Roger said:

    An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it

    http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Is an interesting line Remainers are pushing, this is the email Remain have sent me in the last hour

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/729397915135950848
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    For the London Yougov poll (predicted 60:40 to Khan): 140 of 1017 of the weighted sample (13.8%) and 62 of 201 absolutely certain to vote (30.8%) were over 65.

    By contrast the most recent national Yougov poll for the EU ref (42:41 to Leave): 347 of 1650 of the weighted sample (21%) and 70 of 228 absolutely certain to vote (30.7%) were over 65.

    The difference was that Leave had a lead had a 30% lead with the over 65s, a 10% lead with the over 50s and were only 9% behind with the 25-49 age group.

    By contrast, in London, Khan had a 4% lead with the over 50s, a 30% lead with the 25-49 age group, and a 44% lead with the 18-24s.

    Put simply, the few oldies in London were just overwhelmed.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited May 2016
    Could it be that the over 65s are disproportionately white British, with younger age groups being more ethnically diverse. The age comparison may well be implicitly an ethnic comparison. If so the outcome is not that surprising.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    Personally, I think Remain is relying on a good turnout of ABs in their 30s and 40s (forget those in their 20s, apart from the politically engaged few) and a very heavy turnout of ABC1s in London, the South-East, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and metropolitan cities like Manchester, Bristol, Oxford and Cambridge, to overcome the over 50s.

    Will it be enough?

    Dunno, but that's why it will be close.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FTPT
    rcs1000 said:

    LondonBob said:

    Arizona was one of Trump's strongest states, no chance of Trump not winning that one, by a clear margin. Same with the Southern States.

    Interesting to see in the Monmouth NJ poll Trump was on 70%, taken whilst Cruz and Kasich were still in the race. Would love to see how close Trump is to Clinton there, especially as PPP in WV and NBC in IN have Trump now starting to outperform Romney's margins in 2012.

    Trump's strengths are certainly in areas of the country where he needs to outperform in order to win, like Florida and the Mid-Atlantic/Rust Belt, piling up votes in the Plains and Mountain West is pointless.

    I think equating strength in the primary with strength in the general is a sure fire way to lose money. Let's not forget, Wyoming was one of Obama's strongest states in 2008, and was - fair to say - not in contest in November of that year.
    There is as much, if not more, fantasy thinking to get Trump to the Whitehouse as there was to deny him the nomination.

    Trying to equate the electoral population of the Primaries and the General Election to determine where a candidate will be strong is the quickest way to the poorhouse I could imagine.

    And I say this as someone who's two Scottish Election tips were complete busts.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    If Trumps Favourability or Clinton Head-to-Heads start improving I'll alter my point of view, but as of now it is a Dem blow out.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    @PpollingNumbers

    RCP average had
    Clinton 49.4%
    Trump 38.9%
    Clinton +10.5% a month ago.

    Today Clinton leads Trump by 6.5%
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Roger said:

    An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it

    http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Is an interesting line Remainers are pushing, this is the email Remain have sent me in the last hour

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/729397915135950848
    "These are the people who campaign on fear"...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Roger said:

    An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it

    http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Is an interesting line Remainers are pushing, this is the email Remain have sent me in the last hour

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/729397915135950848
    But it is correct, isn't it ? When is Mme. Le Pen visiting our shores ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009

    Roger said:

    An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it

    http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Is an interesting line Remainers are pushing, this is the email Remain have sent me in the last hour

    No Putin?

    Personally, I think this might be good for getting Remain donations from europhile centrists, and the soft-Left. However, given nearly half the population back Brexit, including mainstream British politicians, it risks insulting the wider electorate, and firming up soft Leavers, if given greater air.

    I think Remain are in danger of making the same mistakes Yes2AV did.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    Why are you for LEAVE ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    Sean_F said:

    London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.

    Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Sadiq Khan's victory in London and Ruth Davidson in Scotland are big moments in the referendum. Sadiq Khan will be very firmly remain and will fight to keep London in. Ruth Davidson and all the main party leaders in Scotland are also going to unite and campaign for remain. Leanne Wood and Labour will do likewise for Wales. With the government booklets going out to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland this week the referendum goes up several notches and I believe that leave will have a much wider front to fight against than just blue on blue. It is going to get very interesting
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Paul Merton's Secret Stations on ITV right now.

    Heey did you get my pm?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:

    Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    surbiton said:

    Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:

    Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?

    They have been in chaos since Osborne' s budget and have been distracted by the referendum. I expect that in just over six weeks we will see a very different cabinet, irrespective of the result, and the government to turn it's attention to governing. The Autumn will be very interesting to see how the political landscape changes as it is certain it will be very different from today
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    What rubbish, what does the woeful campaign of Crosby and London returning to normal voting behaviour after 8 years of Boris have to do with the EU ref. ?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Sean_F said:

    London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.

    Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.
    I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2016
    surbiton said:

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    Why are you for LEAVE ?
    I'm for Leave too.
    For the basic reason that the EU has failed in economic and social terms, the future is out there and it's not european.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Pretty desperate straw clutching, this thread header
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Speedy said:

    What rubbish, what does the woeful campaign of Crosby and London returning to normal voting behaviour after 8 years of Boris have to do with the EU ref. ?

    The UK is a whole lot different than the metropolitan elite who think London is all that matters
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Vote remain to ensure Gerry Adams and the rest of the murderers in the IRA can continue to rort EU taxpayers
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Vote remain to ensure Gerry Adams and the rest of the murderers in the IRA can continue to rort EU taxpayers

    rort ?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    On topic.

    London <> Britain.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    surbiton said:

    Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:

    Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?

    The Conservatives didn't do especially badly for a governing party. They performed, relative to the Opposition, as well as they did in 1984, and as Labour did in 2002. Nobody thought Neil Kinnock or Iain Duncan Smith would go on to win the subsequent general election.
  • A year or two ago we used to have article after article on why the conservatives couId not win a majority at the GE....
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    surbiton said:

    Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:

    Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?

    General fatigue and incompetence of the government, the EU ref. is simply exacerbating it.
    As a result there is a trickle of ex-LD's who voted Tory in the GE returning back to the LD's.

    If it starts to be reflected in the opinion polls Tim Farron will be very happy, and Tory MP's in Cornwall would have to start getting worried.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:

    Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?

    General fatigue and incompetence of the government, the EU ref. is simply exacerbating it.
    As a result there is a trickle of ex-LD's who voted Tory in the GE returning back to the LD's.

    If it starts to be reflected in the opinion polls Tim Farron will be very happy, and Tory MP's in Cornwall would have to start getting worried.
    Not at this stage of the Parliament
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Roger said:

    An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it

    http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Is an interesting line Remainers are pushing, this is the email Remain have sent me in the last hour

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/729397915135950848
    As opposed to Tony Blair, Peter Mandelson, George Osborne and Gerry Adams favouring Remain.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    edited May 2016

    @PpollingNumbers

    RCP average had
    Clinton 49.4%
    Trump 38.9%
    Clinton +10.5% a month ago.

    Today Clinton leads Trump by 6.5%

    You need to be more inquisitive when it comes to this type of retweet. Last month was her high point against Trump since last August when he was in the beginning of his rise as a candidate. The "momentum" if such exists is on her side since she is doing much better now than in September-March.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:

    Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?

    General fatigue and incompetence of the government, the EU ref. is simply exacerbating it.
    As a result there is a trickle of ex-LD's who voted Tory in the GE returning back to the LD's.

    If it starts to be reflected in the opinion polls Tim Farron will be very happy, and Tory MP's in Cornwall would have to start getting worried.
    Not at this stage of the Parliament
    Any LD recovery will probably hit the Tories first, this years Locals reflect that.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Osborne unwittingly comes up with good reason to vote Leave https://t.co/t17PaxIjXy
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MP_SE said:

    Sean_F said:

    London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.

    Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.
    I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.
    Remain has already argued that BREXIT would destroy the planet - the global economy is small beer after that.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Tsipras admits he 'may have been delusional' over his negotiating strategy with the Eurozone in H1 2015. #Greece #vouli
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    I don't think BAFTA have had the memo to rein back on the whole multiculturism, political correctness thing...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    MP_SE said:

    Sean_F said:

    London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.

    Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.
    I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.
    I think Leave need to neuter this line though.

    If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Osborne unwittingly comes up with good reason to vote Leave https://t.co/t17PaxIjXy

    Rise in mortgage cost. Both my children have expressed concern that leaving may cause rates to rise
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2016
    "Whilst London might not be representative of the United Kingdom"

    Says all that needs saying about how interesting these findings are.

    As an aside, one piece from Scotland on error margins with final polls;

    Yougov (net): SNP+1.5%: Lab -0.6%: Con -3.0%: LD -0.8%: Others +2.9%
    Ipsos (phone): SNP+4.5%: Lab -3.6%: Con -4.0%: LD -1.8%: Others +4.9%

    a) Net more accurate than phone.
    b) Arrange them in left/right blocs and they suddenly become a lot more accurate;
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:

    Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?

    General fatigue and incompetence of the government, the EU ref. is simply exacerbating it.
    As a result there is a trickle of ex-LD's who voted Tory in the GE returning back to the LD's.

    If it starts to be reflected in the opinion polls Tim Farron will be very happy, and Tory MP's in Cornwall would have to start getting worried.
    Not at this stage of the Parliament
    Any LD recovery will probably hit the Tories first, this years Locals reflect that.
    Plenty of people (eg Watford, Eastleigh, and Three Rivers) vote Conservative at Parliamentary level and Lib Dem at local council level.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    EPG said:

    @PpollingNumbers

    RCP average had
    Clinton 49.4%
    Trump 38.9%
    Clinton +10.5% a month ago.

    Today Clinton leads Trump by 6.5%

    You need to be more inquisitive when it comes to this type of retweet. Last month was her high point against Trump since last August when he was in the beginning of his rise as a candidate. The "momentum" if such exists is on her side since she is doing much better now than in September-March.
    I actually use 2 metrics for the Hillary-Trump race on a national level, the Gallup favourables tracking poll, and the IPSOS-Reuters tracking poll.

    Trump's collapse in favourables and voting share coincided with the start of the NeverTrump after the Nevada caucus. It dragged down not only Trump but the entire Republican party down in the polls.

    Since the Wisconsin primary Trump is slowing recovering in both metrics, but it's a very slow recovery.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    MP_SE said:

    Sean_F said:

    London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.

    Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.
    I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.
    I think Leave need to neuter this line though.

    If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
    Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long way
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Tsipras admits he 'may have been delusional' over his negotiating strategy with the Eurozone in H1 2015. #Greece #vouli

    Think he is delusional full stop
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2016

    Tsipras admits he 'may have been delusional' over his negotiating strategy with the Eurozone in H1 2015. #Greece #vouli

    I mentioned last year (before his infamous U-Turn) that Tsipras is a committed pro-EU ideologue, so much is his belief that europe can be transformed into a euro-communist paradise that it blinded him from the realities of today, and doomed him to failure and ridicule.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009

    Sadiq Khan's victory in London and Ruth Davidson in Scotland are big moments in the referendum. Sadiq Khan will be very firmly remain and will fight to keep London in. Ruth Davidson and all the main party leaders in Scotland are also going to unite and campaign for remain. Leanne Wood and Labour will do likewise for Wales. With the government booklets going out to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland this week the referendum goes up several notches and I believe that leave will have a much wider front to fight against than just blue on blue. It is going to get very interesting

    If this campaign were fought on normal party lines, with a neutral "make your own mind up" PM/HMG, I'd expect Leave to win by at least 60:40.

    Remain were always going to have the Guardianistas, Greens, the nationalist Left, public sector unionised employees, intelligentsia, third sector, media and arts world, and the internationalists in the bank.

    It's the fact that a Tory PM has come out so strongly for Remain that's made this close: he's confused his own natural support base, and taken at least a good third of them with him.

    That's why this is possibly not far off a (slightly weighted) coin flip shot.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The Parliamentary Briefing on migration claims that 37% of the people living in London were not born in the UK, with over 25% born outside the EU.

    That's roughly five times as many as most UK regions.

    London is an outlier. An abnormality.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009

    MP_SE said:

    Sean_F said:

    London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.

    Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.
    I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.
    I think Leave need to neuter this line though.

    If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
    Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long way
    Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.

    The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.

    But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it

    http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Is an interesting line Remainers are pushing, this is the email Remain have sent me in the last hour

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/729397915135950848
    As opposed to Tony Blair, Peter Mandelson, George Osborne and Gerry Adams favouring Remain.
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it

    http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Is an interesting line Remainers are pushing, this is the email Remain have sent me in the last hour

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/729397915135950848
    As opposed to Tony Blair, Peter Mandelson, George Osborne and Gerry Adams favouring Remain.
    and Ken Livingstone.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    Scott_P said:

    h

    Lolz. Hard to top the fear angle with this:

    https://twitter.com/Stronger_ln/status/729305749948633088
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916
    nunu said:

    Paul Merton's Secret Stations on ITV right now.

    Heey did you get my pm?
    Check your inbox!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2016

    Osborne unwittingly comes up with good reason to vote Leave https://t.co/t17PaxIjXy

    Rise in mortgage cost. Both my children have expressed concern that leaving may cause rates to rise
    Rates are not going to rise as long as there is deflation, you need inflation rates to rise way above 2% while GDP growth is healthy to see a rise in rates.

    I don't think we are going to see neither in today's world of low investment and low demand regardless of the EU ref. outcome.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    edited May 2016
    FPT list of Trump insulted groups:

    Oh, I forgot to mention that Trump also went out of his way to insult the Pope.
    Anti-Catholicism is the easy, acceptable bigotry but if he wanted to win white-ethnic Democrats and mitigate damage among Hispanics, he shouldn't have taken the bait. Clever Pope.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Scott_P said:
    That is about the as enlightening & honest as the rest of debate so far.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Sadiq Khan's victory in London and Ruth Davidson in Scotland are big moments in the referendum. Sadiq Khan will be very firmly remain and will fight to keep London in. Ruth Davidson and all the main party leaders in Scotland are also going to unite and campaign for remain. Leanne Wood and Labour will do likewise for Wales. With the government booklets going out to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland this week the referendum goes up several notches and I believe that leave will have a much wider front to fight against than just blue on blue. It is going to get very interesting

    If this campaign were fought on normal party lines, with a neutral "make your own mind up" PM/HMG, I'd expect Leave to win by at least 60:40.

    Remain were always going to have the Guardianistas, Greens, the nationalist Left, public sector unionised employees, intelligentsia, third sector, media and arts world, and the internationalists in the bank.

    It's the fact that a Tory PM has come out so strongly for Remain that's made this close: he's confused his own natural support base, and taken at least a good third of them with him.

    That's why this is possibly not far off a (slightly weighted) coin flip shot.
    I think if you take the wider conservative base and include Scotland you may find that David Cameron represents the majority though it would be close
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916
    chestnut said:

    The Parliamentary Briefing on migration claims that 37% of the people living in London were not born in the UK, with over 25% born outside the EU.

    That's roughly five times as many as most UK regions.

    London is an outlier. An abnormality.

    I was born outside the UK AND the EU!

    But, BUT, I'm voting LEAVE :)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2016
    EPG said:

    FPT list of Trump insulted groups:

    Oh, I forgot to mention that Trump also went out of his way to insult the Pope.
    Anti-Catholicism is the easy, acceptable bigotry but if he wanted to win white-ethnic Democrats and mitigate damage among Hispanics, he shouldn't have taken the bait. Clever Pope.

    Catholics are actually the most committed Trump supporters, they formed the bedrock of his victories in the N.E.
    Irish-Americans and Italian-Americans seem to like Trump's brash character.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Osborne unwittingly comes up with good reason to vote Leave https://t.co/t17PaxIjXy

    Rise in mortgage cost. Both my children have expressed concern that leaving may cause rates to rise
    Well we used to have interest rates of 10% in the 1980s when we were IN the EU.

    Before we went into the EU interest rates were about 3%
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    MP_SE said:

    Sean_F said:

    London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.

    Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.
    I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.
    I think Leave need to neuter this line though.

    If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
    Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long way
    Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.

    The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.

    But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.
    Leave are going to have a problem with the gross 350 million weekly saving they keep quoting. Michael Gove repeated it today to be corrected by Marr. I believe the figure is nearer 190 million
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009

    Sadiq Khan's victory in London and Ruth Davidson in Scotland are big moments in the referendum. Sadiq Khan will be very firmly remain and will fight to keep London in. Ruth Davidson and all the main party leaders in Scotland are also going to unite and campaign for remain. Leanne Wood and Labour will do likewise for Wales. With the government booklets going out to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland this week the referendum goes up several notches and I believe that leave will have a much wider front to fight against than just blue on blue. It is going to get very interesting

    If this campaign were fought on normal party lines, with a neutral "make your own mind up" PM/HMG, I'd expect Leave to win by at least 60:40.

    Remain were always going to have the Guardianistas, Greens, the nationalist Left, public sector unionised employees, intelligentsia, third sector, media and arts world, and the internationalists in the bank.

    It's the fact that a Tory PM has come out so strongly for Remain that's made this close: he's confused his own natural support base, and taken at least a good third of them with him.

    That's why this is possibly not far off a (slightly weighted) coin flip shot.
    I think if you take the wider conservative base and include Scotland you may find that David Cameron represents the majority though it would be close
    Sean Fear calculates the centre-right breaks 3:1 for Brexit.

    Personally, I think the Tory vote will end up splitting something like 55:45 for Brexit, but I think Tory sympathies for Brexit go much wider than that: two Tory voting friends of mine want to vote Leave, but may end up extremely reluctant Remainers (or abstaining) because they are worried. But they have both told me they really want to tell "Brussels" where to go.

    Obviously, I am working on them :-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    MP_SE said:

    Sean_F said:

    London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.

    Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.
    I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.
    I think Leave need to neuter this line though.

    If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
    Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long way
    Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.

    The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.

    But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.
    Leave are going to have a problem with the gross 350 million weekly saving they keep quoting. Michael Gove repeated it today to be corrected by Marr. I believe the figure is nearer 190 million
    I don't see how it will be a problem - even when corrected it sounds an awful lot going to waste.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    Sean_F said:

    London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.

    Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.
    I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.
    I think Leave need to neuter this line though.

    If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
    Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long way
    Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.

    The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.

    But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.
    Interesting to see Vote Leave have sold out of NHS leaflets. I heard a work colleague the other day argue that if we were to leave the EU we would be able to build countless hospitals.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Speedy said:

    EPG said:

    FPT list of Trump insulted groups:

    Oh, I forgot to mention that Trump also went out of his way to insult the Pope.
    Anti-Catholicism is the easy, acceptable bigotry but if he wanted to win white-ethnic Democrats and mitigate damage among Hispanics, he shouldn't have taken the bait. Clever Pope.

    Catholics are actually the most committed Trump supporters, they formed the bedrock of his victories in the N.E.
    Irish-Americans and Italian-Americans seem to like Trump's brash character.
    Are Catholics a big part of the Republican electorate in the north-east? We need to distinguish states from their parties. Like, there are lots of black people in Trump's strongest southern states, but that doesn't imply...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Tsipras admits he 'may have been delusional' over his negotiating strategy with the Eurozone in H1 2015. #Greece #vouli

    Well he's learning at least. Even for the various EuroCrises, Greece's strategy in that one was insane.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    MP_SE said:

    Sean_F said:

    London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.

    Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.
    I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.
    I think Leave need to neuter this line though.

    If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
    Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long way
    Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.

    The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.

    But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.
    When we have a debate - LEAVE can say - this debate will last 2 hours. In that time we have had to pay the EU £4 million gross.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Speedy said:

    Osborne unwittingly comes up with good reason to vote Leave https://t.co/t17PaxIjXy

    Rise in mortgage cost. Both my children have expressed concern that leaving may cause rates to rise
    Rates are not going to rise as long as there is deflation, you need inflation rates to rise way above 2% while GDP growth is healthy to see a rise in rates.

    I don't think we are going to see neither in today's world of low investment and low demand regardless of the EU ref. outcome.
    Rates will rise to defend the pound and probably on an exit vote fairly soon after
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2016

    chestnut said:

    The Parliamentary Briefing on migration claims that 37% of the people living in London were not born in the UK, with over 25% born outside the EU.

    That's roughly five times as many as most UK regions.

    London is an outlier. An abnormality.

    I was born outside the UK AND the EU!

    But, BUT, I'm voting LEAVE :)
    I'd never have guessed you were a BeLeaver :)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    kle4 said:

    MP_SE said:

    Sean_F said:

    London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.

    Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.
    I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.
    I think Leave need to neuter this line though.

    If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
    Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long way
    Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.

    The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.

    But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.
    Leave are going to have a problem with the gross 350 million weekly saving they keep quoting. Michael Gove repeated it today to be corrected by Marr. I believe the figure is nearer 190 million
    I don't see how it will be a problem - even when corrected it sounds an awful lot going to waste.
    It would be refreshing to see both sides quote accurate information when it is known and in the public domain
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Speedy said:

    Osborne unwittingly comes up with good reason to vote Leave https://t.co/t17PaxIjXy

    Rise in mortgage cost. Both my children have expressed concern that leaving may cause rates to rise
    Rates are not going to rise as long as there is deflation, you need inflation rates to rise way above 2% while GDP growth is healthy to see a rise in rates.

    I don't think we are going to see neither in today's world of low investment and low demand regardless of the EU ref. outcome.
    Rates will rise to defend the pound and probably on an exit vote fairly soon after
    I thought we wanted a weaker pound to encourage exports.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    Since this is a Brexit thread, let's remind ourselves that the Greek debt crisis is about to kick off again since we're about to reach the point on the road where the can was kicked to last year.

    It looks like the EU is gearing up to repeat its waterboarding of Greece of last summer, going far beyond what the IMF considers achievable. If so then in the UK attitudes towards the EU on the left could start to shift away from the Remain camp. It'll serve as a reminder that this supposedly cosy internationalist club is not quite what it's being painted to be by the Labour IN campaign. The main issue is timing and whether a lid can be kept on this until July, allowing the UK June referendum to pass out of the way first.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/08/rioters-take-to-the-streets-ahead-of-greek-austerity-vote
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009

    MP_SE said:

    Sean_F said:

    London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.

    Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.
    I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.
    I think Leave need to neuter this line though.

    If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
    Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long way
    Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.

    The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.

    But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.
    Leave are going to have a problem with the gross 350 million weekly saving they keep quoting. Michael Gove repeated it today to be corrected by Marr. I believe the figure is nearer 190 million
    Yes, because of the rebate and money reallocated by the EU to UK regions, which we don't control directly, of course, but, it's a bit like Osborne's figure: he's happy if people keep talking about and debating it, and so are Leave.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Since this is a Brexit thread, let's remind ourselves that the Greek debt crisis is about to kick off again since we're about to reach the point on the road where the can was kicked to last year.

    It looks like the EU is gearing up to repeat its waterboarding of Greece of last summer, going far beyond what the IMF considers achievable. If so then in the UK attitudes towards the EU on the left could start to shift away from the Remain camp. It'll serve as a reminder that this supposedly cosy internationalist club is not quite what it's being painted to be by the Labour IN campaign. The main issue is timing and whether a lid can be kept on this until July, allowing the UK June referendum to pass out of the way first.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/08/rioters-take-to-the-streets-ahead-of-greek-austerity-vote

    Brussels are trying to keep reporting of the latest round of the Greek debt crisis to a minimum until after the referendum has passed.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    MP_SE said:
    This is what the low-information-voter strategy looks like when you're on the well-informed receiving end... Not a nice feeling.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    WTF?

    Please tell me this is a spoof.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916
    weejonnie said:

    MP_SE said:

    Sean_F said:

    London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.

    Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.
    I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.
    I think Leave need to neuter this line though.

    If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
    Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long way
    Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.

    The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.

    But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.
    When we have a debate - LEAVE can say - this debate will last 2 hours. In that time we have had to pay the EU £4 million gross.
    UK aid to India, 2015: £279,000,000
    UK aid to the EU (net amount), 2015: £8,500,000,000
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    The PM continues to treat the voters as morons..
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    weejonnie said:
    I'm still wiping away tears of laughter here
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    MP_SE said:
    If the telegraph are not egging it bearing in mind they are pro leave then yes and I say this as a remainer
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916
    Churchill in his 1946 Zurich speech said Britain should be "friends" with the new Europe. He didn't say we should be part of it.

    http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/astonish.html
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited May 2016
    Speedy said:

    Osborne unwittingly comes up with good reason to vote Leave https://t.co/t17PaxIjXy

    Rise in mortgage cost. Both my children have expressed concern that leaving may cause rates to rise
    Rates are not going to rise as long as there is deflation, you need inflation rates to rise way above 2% while GDP growth is healthy to see a rise in rates.

    I don't think we are going to see neither in today's world of low investment and low demand regardless of the EU ref. outcome.
    BREXIT = rate cut imo. The Authorities would want to demonstrate that they intended to cushion the economy from the initial shock waves.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    runnymede said:

    The PM continues to treat the voters as morons..
    I honestly can't believe I just read that.

    I am sitting here with my mouth aghast.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    David Cameron's warning seems fair enough. There's at least one aggressive militaristic leader who would be delighted to be able to foment disunity and take further military action if the opportunity presents itself.

    Of course, if it happened, Leavers would deny any connection with their referendum-inspired isolationism.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited May 2016
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Speedy said:

    IT'S WAR !

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
    Ah yes, the Australio-Hong Kong border, a well known flash point :D
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited May 2016
    chestnut said:

    The Parliamentary Briefing on migration claims that 37% of the people living in London were not born in the UK, with over 25% born outside the EU.

    That's roughly five times as many as most UK regions.

    London is an outlier. An abnormality.


    And they don't get to vote in the referendum anyway.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    runnymede said:

    The PM continues to treat the voters as morons..
    I honestly can't believe I just read that.

    I am sitting here with my mouth aghast.
    Perhaps you're similarly aghast to what Leaver Tory MP Julian Lewis has also said on that same front page?
This discussion has been closed.