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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Freedom for Tooting – the by-election to fill Sadiq’s seat
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Freedom for Tooting – the by-election to fill Sadiq’s seat could be tight
Zac Goldsmith’s father once said that when a man married his mistress, that created a vacancy. In the same way, his successful opponent for the Mayor of London contest can be expected shortly to be standing down as MP for Tooting, giving rise to a fascinating by-election.
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He must love losing his deposits.
Only way I could see the Tories gaining this seat is if Ken Livingstone was the Labour candidate.
It is common consensus that 2016 local elections were very close to 2012.
Yet look at London. A 6.5% swing from Con to Lab. This is not just the Boris factor.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-36215186
Corbyn looks safer after the series of elections but he is getting on and seems to find the intensity of leadership daunting. He is going on holiday again before the EU referendum. The ST yesterday listed his holidays since becoming leader. It was a surprisingly long list for a relatively short period.
If I was advising Sadiq Khan I would be telling him that his local constituency needs a bit of time to catch up with the march Dan Watkins has got on them and that there is no particular rush.
Tales from the count in Dundee. My daughter reported that several SNP supporters present were talking about voting Leave to try and precipitate a further referendum.
This is of course beyond stupid because if Scotland votes Leave as well as rUK then there is no basis for a referendum. In any event the mood music from on high is very much that this is not the time.
It does, however, reflect the impatience and frustration in SNP ranks amongst their more ardent supporters (and you have to be pretty ardent to hang around a count for hours doing very little wondering what is going on elsewhere). Managing that frustration is going to be a difficult and tricky task for Nicola. In the meantime Leave might gain some unexpected supporters. I saw Malcolm declare himself for Leave overnight
Therefore what should really please Labour is that they still have a presence in the South and Midlands, and that people are still willing to vote for them there when Corbyn is not a factor. What should worry them is that polling suggests (caveats obviously apply) that he is a personal drag on the Labour ticket in those areas which makes them far more difficult to win at a general election.
He is still a controversial figure and at 70, should think it is time for a younger person. So should Corbyn.
Edit: and Betfair now
The PM's EU hyperbole continues after a brief hiatus last week - WAR, really?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/08/cameron-brexit-will-increase-risk-of-europe-descending-into-war/
He really doesn't seem to care if he kills his own party as long as he wins his beloved referendum. Is anyone still listening to him?
The irony is that in the last few years the EU's economic policies towards the periphery have created the conditions that make wars far more likely.
Certainly Shadsy's 2/1 doesn't tempt me.
An estimated 55 million voters are eligible to vote, turnout last time around was 74.34% and I would expect it to be higher this time as communications with more distant voters has improved, and modern communications has meant that even outlying areas are fully up to date on developments, there also has been enough controversy over the views and eligibility of the various candidates to capture the attention of even the most apathetic voter. There has been some polling but it is a relatively new development here on a national scale so it will be interesting to see how accurate it turns out to be.
There has been some comment in the UK papers as new members of a famous dynasty continue to make their mark http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/09/a-younger-marcos-eyes-political-triumph-as-the-philippines-goes/. As an expat I will refrain from commenting on parties and policies as that is rarely welcomed by the locals, but will be an interested observer of the process.
There is going to be some very unpopular stuff this year.
verify as much in his beard: he has no more
directions in the true disciplines of the wars, look
you, of the Roman disciplines, than is a puppy-dog.
http://www.jasfortooting.org.uk/
Sent me by a well known Labour activist, albeit in the north.
And also Jayne Lim who came second in the selection for Sheffield. She is a Corbynite, Londoner and Junior Doctor. She is profiled here.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/03/three-women-labour-candidate-sheffield-byelection
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12103724/Historians-for-Britain-warn-against-pro-EU-scare-tactics.html
The Conservatives actually won the equivalent of Tooting constituency in 1955 and 1959 although it had the name of Wandsworth Central then.
' The area has undergone substantial demographic change. While most of London is trending to Labour, Tooting is an exception. '
The areas of Tooting constituency adjacent to Battersea and Putney constituencies have demographically trended Conservative while the areas adjacent to Streatham and Mitcham constituencies have demographically trended Labour.
These changes rather counter the common idea that Tooting is trending Conservative demographically:
White
2001 73%
2011 66%
Muslim
2001 7%
2011 11%
Home ownership
2001 55%
2011 48%
Mr. kle4, I'm inclined to agree. Plus, the vote won't be about determining the government but just a single seat, so those wary of Corbyn may well not bother to turn out.
Banning alcohol before the vote? I'm guessing no betting on the outcomes either then.
Nonetheless should be a Labour hold, particularly with some basking in the glory of Khan's victory.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-gops-electoral-map-problem-is-not-about-trump-its-about-demographics/2016/05/08/14cdf1fc-1523-11e6-924d-838753295f9a_story.html
Fortunately, if we vote to leave, global warming will destroy all human life, so the war won't be very long.
Just saying.
All of sudden Britain is marvellous and not too poor, wee and stupid today. I'm not convinced that after a diet of back-of-the-line rhetoric over the last few weeks can be washed away with a speech. The comments in the Times are a hoot. c100 so far and 98 are WTF/taking the piss.
*Peace, of course, including genocide in Bosnia and a war currently on hiatus in Ukraine.
Miss Plato, weeks to go, so time for Remain to turn the apocalyptic oil tanker around. That said, it's harder to claim positivity whilst claiming a vote for Leave is a vote for World War Three.
It is entirely reasonable for the Prime Minister to point that out.
On another subject, I see from RedBox that Osborne has confirmed that he is a leadership candidate and says he'll be the "principled" one (paywall). Can't read the article itself as I don't want to give money to the Times...
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/729555261334114304
It is entirely reasonable for PB Leavers to point that out.
I trust this meets your 'grow up' request?
Yeah, but Dave good turn down the apocalyptic rhetoric before he starts to look silly.
Basically, the British people do not like to be lectured to. DC might do well to remember that.
https://vimeo.com/85914510
I also probably wouldn't have said: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-would-do-okay-outside-the-european-union-david-cameron-says-a6727031.html
Where he seemed to feel it was about the nuances of where we would do best, not that one option mean war and one didn't.
Pathetic.
'Growing up' means listening to what 'intelligent' and 'cultured' London dwellers tell you is good for you, and not provoking them into hissy fits by questioning it.
Governments always struggle to gain by-elections because the cost/benefit balance between supporting the government for floating voters is substantially different at a by-election compared with a general election. Corbyn can't enter Number 10 if Labour wins. That it's been 34 years since any government gained a seat says all that's needed about the dynamic - and that gain was against a split opposition, with the sitting MP defecting to the SDP. On top of which, the election was held at a time when there was an incentive to back the government, with the Falklands War ongoing (and being won by early June).
Excluding Bristol SE in 1961 (which Tony Benn 'won' but was disqualified from), and parties winning back constituencies after the retirement of Speakers, the previous instance of any government gaining a seat was 1960. It is very rare.
And it's not going to happen this time because on top of the fewer incentives for floating voters to go Blue, the Conservatives will be in the middle of a civil war over the EU: never a great attraction to most of the electorate.
It may be that at some point this parliament, the Conservatives will gain a seat. If it happens, I'd expect it to be in a non-London super-marginal at a time of significant internal strife within Labour; possibly, as in 1982, off the back of an MP resigning in protest or defection. But not in Tooting.
Spurs less certain to be 2nd.
Neither can understand the other one's success.
If such a 'mature' and thoughtful debate was ever possible, their own side's antics have made it impossible.