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Take a deep breath. The scent in your nostrils is the dusty burnt smell of scorched earth politics from the referendum. George Osborne has pre-launched the emergency budget he would advocate in the event of a Leave vote, to the fury of half of his own party’s backbenchers. Dozens have already publicly declared that they would vote against it.
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Heaven knows what's going to happen next.
If LEAVE win, all bets are off - but people who airily dismiss Cameron's ruthlessness may be in for a surprise......
What?
https://twitter.com/i/moments/743062184431890432
How very LEAVEr of him.......
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/15/boris-johnson-and-michael-gove-demand-david-cameron-veto-turkeys/
And here's Graham Brady trying to pull things back together, a bit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/15/conservatives-fighting-like-rats-in-a-bag-imperils-the-partys-ve/
And some previous CoEs aren't happy with George http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/15/former-tory-leaders-and-chancellors-accuse-george-osborne-of-lud/
Re Austria - I hope the result is not too close. I don't want to go through this again this year.....
Alistair - not read it yet but article looks interesting.
Do we really want to live in the sort of country where undercover police officers infiltrate social or religious events then the people there end up at the Old Bailey for saying politically incorrect things that the bugs have recorded. A whiff of the Gestapo about it to say the least.
Appears they are being done for "encouraging support for a proscribed organisation"
If remain win it won't be many years before people in such gatherings denouncing the EU and all its works go the same way.
Be careful what you wish for.
If he loses, he's toast.
I was referring to Leave prioritising ending freedom of movement over access to the single market. If that wasn't obvious, I apologise. If anyone thinks that isn't going to be at the heart of future political clashes in the event of a Leave vote, they're welcome to make that case.
I struggle, however, to see how anyone could describe it as invective.
If Leave wins and Cameron and Osborne go... that could easily take the sting out of it all.
Boris as PM to unite the party?
With respect to Labour- the problems Corbyn has seem unrelated to Europe.
But his measured support for Remain does seem a more tenable position given the assumption that plenty of Labour supporters will be voting leave...
The real problem for Parliament after a Leave vote is that the MPs who back Leave constitute less than a quarter of the Commons, and probably the same in the Lords. It is hard to see any deal agreed by parliament satisfying the Leavers. With a Remain vote the Tory party is ungovernable. Either way I cannot see how the government continues without an election, though an election is quite unlikely to resolve the deadlocks.
What we see is the Boaty McBoatface-ication of Parliamentary democracy. The irony is that those who profess the supremacy of Westminster will have knobbled it.
The Tories’ process for picking a leader is twofold: Conservative MPs narrow the field to two choices, before a postal ballot of the wider membership of the party is conducted.
The Chairman of the 1922 Committee, which represents Conservative MPs, acts as the returning officer for leadership elections. Graham Brady is currently serving in this post. The Conservative Whip (currently Michael Gove) receives nominations from members of the House of Commons, and the deadline is noon “on a Thursday”.
If one nomination is received, the new leader is declared elected. If two nominations are made, both names go forward for the members of the party to decide between. In the event that three or more MPs are nominated for leader, a ballot of Conservative MPs is held “on the Tuesday immediately following the closing date for nominations”. The ballot is held under the first past the post system. If MPs are choosing between four or more candidates, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated and further ballots are held on subsequent Thursdays and Tuesdays until only two MPs remain.
The wider membership of the Conservative party then chooses between these two MPs, with the vote being held via a postal ballot. The returning officer chooses the date by which ballots have to be returned and the count begins at noon that day. The result is announced at a meeting of the parliamentary party and “representative members”.
http://www.westminsteradvisers.co.uk/2015/03/follow-the-leader-rules-for-party-leadership-elections/
Earliest for an unopposed election is June 30th - chances nil to zero
Earliest Candidates identified July 5th - sent out to a postal ballot.
Postal Ballot - for UK Elections its 19 working days (or less) before the election - which takes us to early August - Cameron will have been PM for 5 weeks after the vote, could have invoked Article 50, reshuffled his Cabinet and Osborne presented a budget.
If a week is a long time in politics, 5 weeks is an aeon.....
Remain - Frances O’Grady, leader of the TUC, Ruth Davidson and Sadiq Khan
Leave - Boris Johnson, Gisela Stuart, and former CBI chief Lord Digby Jones
He's not remotely up to the job.
Gove would make an adequate interim to step down before 2020
An elderly person who was diehard Remain and who voted by post just told me she now thinks she voted too early.
If someone like her is being forced into the Leave camp then Remain really are in big trouble.
I cannot see Jezza exploiting the Tory division effectively, not least because Jezzas political nous is near non-existant on any issue. He simply doesn't understand other peoples point of view.
What an odd thing to say: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/15/eu-referendum-defiant-senior-brussels-diplomat-warns-uk-not-to-o/
So they admit that what they gave us was unlawful, how are we supposed to believe it won't get thrown out by the ECJ soon after a remain vote?
Chences are he'll be costing the NHS money.
http://www.nursingtimes.net/smoking-costs-nhs-5bn-a-year/5002585.fullarticle
There will be a big rally in Casemates Square at 5pm (4pm UK time) which might make the UK media.
24,100 people have registered to vote in the referendum .... of which 24,099 will be voting In so he'll get a pretty positive crowd.
So they admit that what they gave us was unlawful, how are we supposed to believe it won't get thrown out by the ECJ soon after a remain vote?
Well indeed. That needs to be used by VoteLeave - doubly so if we get a Vow Mk II.
The only thing stopping him going straight away is the lack of an obvious caretaker without leadership ambitions. Hague would have been perfect
By his vile words and actions he has condemned himself.
I'm becoming increasingly convinced that it'g going to be close, probably between 0% - 3%, with a turnout of between 68% - 70% would be my guess.
A leader is only a leader so long as he has followers
But I was responding to Carlotta's comment that even if Leave wins we shouldn't underestimate Cameron's ruthlessness. If Leave wins, he is as you say, finished.
George Osborne is the exception.
Does anyone know how many overseas voters are registered? I assume the majority have to use a proxy?
As does QE (which will happen) and opening the discount window to flood the market with liquidity.
But no foreign government will negotiate with Cameron until they know his has been confirmed in his place or is being replaced.
Cameron is the Prime Minister.
If Tory MPs wish to replace him as Leader of their party that will take at least five weeks - possibly longer - unless a coronation is arranged.
I can't see either side agreeing on a 'compromise' candidate - can you?
It looks like Remain and Leave agreed through the BBC to trade Ruth for Digby Jones, rather than Tim Martin, who'd have been a disaster.
Boris needs to train hard day-in, day-out. He wasn't brilliant against Salmond this week and this one on Tuesday is massive.
Fancy a flutter that if Leave wins Cameron won't make it beyond the weekend without signalling that he's standing down?
His authority will be in tatters. Nothing he attempts will get anywhere. Look at yesterday if you don't believe me. Even before the vote he lost the Brexit budget in the space of an hour.
I can't see how Cameron can regain trust/authority from hereon. He ould try to cling on, but it would be a miserable experience and I don't see why he'd want to put himself through it. Maybe he could say "I'm going to stand down in the autumn" if he really wants a few more months - and so he isn't leaving immediately after the result.
I see you don't dispute the timetable.....
Cameron may signal he's stepping down, or may decide to fight.
Either way he's PM until at least August, whatever your fantasies of instantaneous defenestration.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-36499959
The evident tensions between Cameron and May yesterday show just how ungovernable this party is going to be and they are even supposed to be on the same side! There is going to be a dangerous amount of bitterness about with the losing side feeling cheated by the "lies" of the other.
Can the Conservatives stay together? I struggle to see how. It is evident that the majority of their supporters in the country are going to vote leave. Remain and Cameron are now dependent on Labour supporters turning out in significant numbers and voting for them. Good luck with that but even if they do running a party he has defeated with the help of the opposition puts Cameron in an untenable position.
I could see Cameron staying on for a few months, potentially longer if REMAIN wins, but not Osborne, he's burnt his boats within the party.
People need time to calm down and take stock - and the potential candidates need time to make their cases.
Arranging things so there is a Leadership Hustings at the Party Conference (albeit a bit late in early October, but that's fate) would, I think be the most sensible route.
But then 'sensible' has been in short supply on all sides recently.
Buy shares in Betrayal.
George Osborne has clearly gone completely mad, advocating high profile tax rises to add to the scare stories. Cameron almost needs to throw him under the bus right now, to have any hope of saving his own skin next week.
It's also clear that this campaign has split both major parties very badly indeed. The Tories have turned what should have been polite disagreement into one almighty slanging match, while Labour have shown the massive disconnect between their middle class hierarchy and their working class support. Given that a general election his year is far from impossible, with the government unable to pass anything at all through the Commons, the next few months are going to be fascinating for politics watchers. We've not seen anyting like this since the 1970s, and a lot of us are too young to remember that!
Gove's message of hope, slightly spoilt by Dimbleby's rudeness, is a sweet antidote to Project Fear and Loathing;
https://m.youtube.com/results?q=michael gove&search_type=&uploaded=d
He would recommend she asks either Gove or Johnston to form an administration
Edit. Blair went to the palace and tendered his resignation to the queen in the morning, she invited Brown to form a government that afternoon
Sorry but that's just fantasy island.
If Leave wins Cameron will be finished. I'm not even sure that he could now offer to see through the transition. He doesn't of course have to. It's perfectly possible to have an interim leader: a steady hand on the tiller through to the election of a replacement.
There's actually no constitutional reason (I believe) why that couldn't be William Hague. As someone pointed out, there's no legislation in the commons anyway and the recess isn't far off. Otherwise a very wise old hand with no ultimate leadership ambitions but plenty of respect would do the job.
The Labour Vote Leave contribution has been very effective but I think it is silly to pretend they are anything other than a very small minority in the PLP, however much their message has resonated in the country.
Labour have the same problem as they had before the referendum: a leader who the membership seem to support very strongly but whom everyone who knows him well in the PLP knows is not fit to be in the cabinet, let alone PM. A change of leader to someone more competent and Labour might be in a much better place. The referendum has caused them minimal damage.
There is a massive opportunity for Labour here but they need to show an uncharacteristic ruthlessness to grab it.
They did say 'Vote LEAVE and the Pensioners get it'.......
If Leave wins Cameron will be finished. I'm not even sure that he could now offer to see through the transition. He doesn't of course have to. It's perfectly possible to have an interim leader: a steady hand on the tiller through to the election of a replacement.
There's actually no constitutional reason (I believe) why that couldn't be William Hague. As someone pointed out, there's no legislation in the Commons anyway and the recess isn't far off.* Otherwise a very wise old MP with no ultimate leadership ambitions but plenty of respect would do the job.
* Aside that is from the tiny matter of organising our Brexit
As for Boris being PM, it makes me feel ill just thinking about it.
Remember - they absolutely despise Cameron and all he stands for. If it's Leave they won't trust him to carry out negotiations. If by some miracle Remain squeak it they will be apoplectic and the Cameron/Oik duo will be the target for their rage. Either way, holding off for a few months and doing it at the conference seems like fantasy to me.
how people like IDS will take defeat I hesitate to guess but if Osborne is toast for you Leavers, so is IDS to we remainers I'd suggest in terms of any govt role going forward.
Thatcher worked the phones extensively for Major and swung not a few votes behind him.
Ruthlessness can take many forms - if you think Cameron is just going to sit in the corner and sulk, I suspect you are in for a surprise.
It's all a bit bizarre really, given that even if there's a Brexit result, very little is going to happen for several years and it's quite possible, likely even, that nothing will ultimately happen.
https://oddschecker.com/t/politics/british-politics/when-will-david-cameron-leave-his-post-as-prime-minister
I think it would be a very good move for everyone concerned. He'd take the heat out of this.
The tory leavers are quite quite mad.