Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori phone poll sees a 10% swing to Leave as Leave ta

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori phone poll sees a 10% swing to Leave as Leave take a 6% lead

David Cameron is finding EU Can’t Always Get What You Want. He must be feeling like Gonville Bromhead, as he’s told the pollsters report Brextieers….millions of them. What this poll finds is that the focus on immigration and Turkey is working for Leave whilst the Remain attack lines on the economy aren’t working.

Read the full story here


«13456710

Comments

  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    I'm trying not to BeLeave just in case I get crushingly disappointed on the 23rd.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    An amazing successful campaign by Leave§, shamelessly harnessing both right and leftwing arguments, that will result in vast resentment across the board at what actually transpires.
  • The nasty side of the Guardian, misquoting an elderly man.
    http://order-order.com/2016/06/16/how-remainers-stitched-up-goves-elderly-father/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835
    Osborne's head on a plate resigning should provide some initial cheer !
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Not sure any reason why DC should stand down in 9 days time but he might announce the date for it - the country will need a bit of stability.
  • " BBC has secured £2.7 million of European Union funds since 2014 but has failed to tell the public about it. ........A BBC spokesman said that because the EU publishes grant details every 12 months it was up to the public to find out about the funding for themselves from an EU website."
    http://heatst.com/uk/bbc-has-secured-2-7-million-in-secret-eu-funds-since-2014/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Not sure any reason why DC should stand down in 9 days time but he might announce the date for it - the country will need a bit of stability.

    But if Leave win, they don't want stability. They want revolution.

    Vote Leave so that nothing changes... Not really their core message.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Guessing the fieldwork was pre-Osborne's scorched earth strategy, which as far as I can see is not going to help Remain.

    Trying not to get too hopeful but we just might pull this off.
  • Statement of the Bleeding obvious.

    James Forsyth @JGForsyth
    Remain’s problem in this referendum dates back to the renegotiation and the EU’s failure to engage on free movement http://bit.ly/21nXpO1
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,874
    FPT ...

    Remain was always going to lose. Immigration control is just too potent a message to fight against. But there are going to be a huge number of very disillusioned, beaten up ordinary punters that will be absolutely furious at what is about to actually transpire.

    Leave has promised no tax cuts, extra spending, cheaper housing and substantially lower immigration. Voters are not going to wait ten years for that. They are not going to wait five. They are very quickly going to decide that they were lied to. And with good reason. They were lied to.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Northern Ireland, Gib and expats ? Are we still clinging to this ?

    Just how many votes do you think this is going to deliver ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    Essexit said:

    Guessing the fieldwork was pre-Osborne's scorched earth strategy, which as far as I can see is not going to help Remain.

    Trying not to get too hopeful but we just might pull this off.

    Fieldwork was Saturday to Tuesday inclusive
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    edited June 2016
    TURKEY! Turkey is working for Leave! E Gads!

    It is no more sensible a mantra here than it was for that Family Fortunes contestant all those years ago.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Pauly said:

    I'm trying not to BeLeave just in case I get crushingly disappointed on the 23rd.

    I agree. I have been wanting this and working towards it for for 30 years and can hardly quite believe it might finally happen. I won't believe it until 24th.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited June 2016
    Ipsos had Labour leading in four straight polls between Jan and April 2015. It was only the last 7-10 days that they put the Tories ahead.

    There remains a danger that polls are herding.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956

    Northern Ireland, Gib and expats ? Are we still clinging to this ?

    Just how many votes do you think this is going to deliver ?

    I've worked it out on the back of a fag packet, it's worth about 1.2% for Remain.

    When the Leave lead is 2%, then it is significant.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,874

    An amazing successful campaign by Leave§, shamelessly harnessing both right and leftwing arguments, that will result in vast resentment across the board at what actually transpires.

    Absolutely. The only consolation is that all the figures associated with the Leave campaign will be hounded from office and public life over the coming years as the scale of their lies becomes apparent. Not that they will care that much. They are shielded from the effects of what is about to happen and will be absolutely fine. And FREE :-)

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Just to confirm TSE - referendum has to be called by Wedtminster to have any legal status...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Not sure any reason why DC should stand down in 9 days time but he might announce the date for it - the country will need a bit of stability.

    But if Leave win, they don't want stability. They want revolution.

    Vote Leave so that nothing changes... Not really their core message.
    Remain isn't for stability either - a 20m extra citizens in the Uk and is hardly a recipe for stability is it ?
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    Northern Ireland, Gib and expats ? Are we still clinging to this ?

    Just how many votes do you think this is going to deliver ?

    I've worked it out on the back of a fag packet, it's worth about 1.2% for Remain.

    When the Leave lead is 2%, then it is significant.
    Show us your working.

    I have it barely a quarter of that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    chestnut said:

    Ipsos had Labour leading in four straight polls between Jan and April 2015. It was only the last 7-10 days that they put the Tories ahead.

    There remains a danger that polls are herding.

    What would the numbers be on the old Ipsos-Mori methodology?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    Mortimer said:

    Just to confirm TSE - referendum has to be called by Wedtminster to have any legal status...

    Legal yes, but what does Westminster do if Scotland holds a referendum in defiance of Westminster and the independence mob win on a turnout of circa 80%?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    If Brexit triumphs and — contrary to its proponents’ assurances — jobs go, workers’ rights disappear and living standards fall, if our enemies everywhere make their delight clear that Britain has turned its back on the world, if all the promises of a magic money tree turn out to be as fraudulent now as they ever were, right-wing populists will learn what true populist anger looks like.

    Brexit voters won’t blame themselves. Voters never do. They will blame the politicians and pundits who made them look like fools. Common sense will turn into communal rage as those who have accused every-one else of lying will be revealed as the greatest liars of all.


    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/why-the-leave-campaign-should-pray-they-dont-win/
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    FPT (with a bit added on).

    I've been reading the LabourLeave's pamphlet. It's interesting, if a little repetitive.

    For those interested in how they see the existential threat to the Labour party itself, Frank Field and Jasper Miles are particularly persuasive. If I were a Labour grandee, I would be horrified that my party were selling Remain. I suppose it's the nature of any ancien regime to be oblivious to the risks they're running.

    As a child of the '60s there was also the thrill of reading a full-blooded retro piece from ASLEF (Mick Whelan), whose primary concern is the Fourth Railway Package (which, as he positions it, would make re-nationalisation of the railways impossible).

    Southam's identified that many (for some value of 'many') people who vote for Brexit are going to be incredibly pissed off when immigration doesn't fall off a cliff.

    Rather than talk about the economy (which will do whatever it does), what do we think will happen in 2020? How will that play out in the next GE, given we'll have been ~ two years post-EU by then?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,721
    O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.

    Wishful thinking? Denial?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,874
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.

    It is insane.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956

    Northern Ireland, Gib and expats ? Are we still clinging to this ?

    Just how many votes do you think this is going to deliver ?

    I've worked it out on the back of a fag packet, it's worth about 1.2% for Remain.

    When the Leave lead is 2%, then it is significant.
    Show us your working.

    I have it barely a quarter of that.
    I've got a forthcoming thread on that.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    FPT


    RochdalePioneers said:
    On Facebook messenger with a comrade discussing the latest poll and what in means.

    I think we are in the dying weeks of the final ever majority government that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will ever have. What do you think...?



    I can see that. Repeal the fixed term act, allow for a few strange temporary alliances and, in parallel, determine a decent PR voting platform. Introduce this and we all move on - PR^2 anyone?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.

    Wishful thinking? Denial?
    Northern Ireland, Ex-Pats and Gibraltar.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    Lennon said:

    O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?

    Yup, the fact I've not done a thread on it in the past month says it all.

    17k matched on Betfair for it, and 31m matched on the EURef.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    edited June 2016

    Pauly said:

    I'm trying not to BeLeave just in case I get crushingly disappointed on the 23rd.

    I agree. I have been wanting this and working towards it for for 30 years and can hardly quite believe it might finally happen. I won't believe it until 24th.
    Whom the Gods wish to destroy, they first grant their wishes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835

    Northern Ireland, Gib and expats ? Are we still clinging to this ?

    Just how many votes do you think this is going to deliver ?

    I've worked it out on the back of a fag packet, it's worth about 1.2% for Remain.

    When the Leave lead is 2%, then it is significant.
    Show us your working.

    I have it barely a quarter of that.
    I've got a forthcoming thread on that.
    I'd be fascinated to see both your workings.
  • The nasty side of the Guardian, misquoting an elderly man.
    http://order-order.com/2016/06/16/how-remainers-stitched-up-goves-elderly-father/

    To their credit, the Guardian posted the full transcript of the interview here. Doesn't seem that bad to me, but decide for yourself : http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/15/eu-referendum-live-osborne-punishment-budget-farage-flotilla-thames?page=with:block-5761aa3ee4b04ceead988c83#block-5761aa3ee4b04ceead988c83
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Lennon, yes.

    Do the Pirates have a candidate there?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    I have been convinced from the start that Leave would win - few have more of an emotional connection with the EU than with the arguments offered by Leave.

    My anecdote from last night was that friends on Fb who don't do politics have started to realise the inevitable. This has widened today - mostly AB bankers suggesting financial implications, followed by some insult to Leavers. Utterly hilarious.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835

    Lennon said:

    O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?

    Yup, the fact I've not done a thread on it in the past month says it all.

    17k matched on Betfair for it, and 31m matched on the EURef.
    Must be a big win for Labour - who the hell is coming out to vote for George and Dave's latest lamb to the slaughter now ?
  • An interesting thought from a Lib Dem. Cameron falls on his sword before the vote.

    "It makes me think that David Cameron has one last card to play if Leave are still ahead in the final 48 hours before the poll: he can announce to the nation a few days before the referendum vote that after June 23rd, regardless of outcome, he will step down as prime minister."
    http://nicktyrone.com/camerons-last-ditch-move-keep-us-europe/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    Essexit said:

    Guessing the fieldwork was pre-Osborne's scorched earth strategy, which as far as I can see is not going to help Remain.

    Trying not to get too hopeful but we just might pull this off.

    Fieldwork was Saturday to Tuesday inclusive
    We need to see polls that take into account the events of this week and the reaction to the Brexit leads.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Lennon said:

    O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?

    Yup, the fact I've not done a thread on it in the past month says it all.

    17k matched on Betfair for it, and 31m matched on the EURef.
    Labour cakewalk. The new candidate is a non-Corbynite moderate called Khan, who also happens to be a pretty local doctor from St George's hospital. I expect Labour to increase their majority on a small turnout.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited June 2016
    Brussels are saying "non" to a EuroVow from what I've just heard. Junker is only going to reiterate how much stronger the UK is in the EU and that leaving will cause turbulence to both the UK and the EU. There will be no concessions on free movement, but he also won't talk about punishment beatings if we choose to Leave because they think it will be counter-productive.

    He is mainly going to concentrate on foreign policy apparently because the economic argument has spectacularly failed to move votes.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    Lennon said:

    O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?

    The by-election does not feature at all on the BBC News UK Politics section front page, nor in the Politics Live coverage!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @budslinger1972: @angelaeagle why do you support the most corrupt undemocratic organisation in the world?

    @angelaeagle: I don't support FIFA https://t.co/Znaq3Q9Rwl

    :)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,874
    Scott_P said:

    If Brexit triumphs and — contrary to its proponents’ assurances — jobs go, workers’ rights disappear and living standards fall, if our enemies everywhere make their delight clear that Britain has turned its back on the world, if all the promises of a magic money tree turn out to be as fraudulent now as they ever were, right-wing populists will learn what true populist anger looks like.

    Brexit voters won’t blame themselves. Voters never do. They will blame the politicians and pundits who made them look like fools. Common sense will turn into communal rage as those who have accused every-one else of lying will be revealed as the greatest liars of all.


    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/why-the-leave-campaign-should-pray-they-dont-win/

    Voters will be right to blame those who sold them the snake oil.

    Leave have promised higher wages, more jobs, lower housing costs, more public spending, much lower immigration.

    They now have to deliver.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.

    Wishful thinking? Denial?
    I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.

    Yes you do.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,721

    Mr. Lennon, yes.

    Do the Pirates have a candidate there?

    Nope. Anticipated it being over-shadowed (and didn't have anyone locally that was keen to stand) so passed. Never expected it to be as over-shadowed as it has been in reality so happy with the decision made...
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Not sure any reason why DC should stand down in 9 days time but he might announce the date for it - the country will need a bit of stability.

    But if Leave win, they don't want stability. They want revolution.

    Vote Leave so that nothing changes... Not really their core message.
    Remain isn't for stability either - a 20m extra citizens in the Uk and is hardly a recipe for stability is it ?
    Where are you getting these idiotic numbers from? You are just making it up now.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    " BBC has secured £2.7 million of European Union funds since 2014 but has failed to tell the public about it. ........A BBC spokesman said that because the EU publishes grant details every 12 months it was up to the public to find out about the funding for themselves from an EU website."
    http://heatst.com/uk/bbc-has-secured-2-7-million-in-secret-eu-funds-since-2014/

    The BBC mentioned it on BBC4's feedback a few weeks ago...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835
    edited June 2016
    Jobabob said:

    Lennon said:

    O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?

    Yup, the fact I've not done a thread on it in the past month says it all.

    17k matched on Betfair for it, and 31m matched on the EURef.
    Labour cakewalk. The new candidate is a non-Corbynite moderate called Khan, who also happens to be a pretty local doctor from St George's hospital. I expect Labour to increase their majority on a small turnout.
    Labour remainers have been fine this EURef, Labour leavers outstanding (Hillary Benn, Gisela Stuart both spring to mind as good performers). Corbyn hasn't done too badly with the general public either, having the obvious sceptisicm alot of wavering remainers do about Europe and not the bullshitfest DC and GO have given.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Jobabob said:

    Where are you getting these idiotic numbers from? You are just making it up now.

    Now, now, be fair. Leave have been making it up from day one.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Lennon said:

    O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?


    UKIP could have a strong showing in view of the referendum.
  • Scott_P said:

    If Brexit triumphs and — contrary to its proponents’ assurances — jobs go, workers’ rights disappear and living standards fall, if our enemies everywhere make their delight clear that Britain has turned its back on the world, if all the promises of a magic money tree turn out to be as fraudulent now as they ever were, right-wing populists will learn what true populist anger looks like.

    Brexit voters won’t blame themselves. Voters never do. They will blame the politicians and pundits who made them look like fools. Common sense will turn into communal rage as those who have accused every-one else of lying will be revealed as the greatest liars of all.


    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/why-the-leave-campaign-should-pray-they-dont-win/

    Voters will be right to blame those who sold them the snake oil.
    Leave have promised higher wages, more jobs, lower housing costs, more public spending, much lower immigration.
    They now have to deliver.
    One correction. It was the Chair of the REMAIN BSIE campaign who first stated that wages would be higher with Brexit. So that is the originator of the promise in the main public's mind.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited June 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Brussels are saying "non" to a EuroVow from what I've just heard. Junker is only going to reiterate how much stronger the UK is in the EU and that leaving will cause turbulence to both the UK and the EU. There will be no concessions on free movement, but he also won't talk about punishment beatings if we choose to Leave because they think it will be counter-productive.

    He is mainly going to concentrate on foreign policy apparently because the economic argument has spectacularly failed to move votes.

    The man's a fool and my consolation if we vote leave will be to see his face as his beloved project descends into open economic warfare
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542

    An amazing successful campaign by Leave§, shamelessly harnessing both right and leftwing arguments, that will result in vast resentment across the board at what actually transpires.

    Absolutely. The only consolation is that all the figures associated with the Leave campaign will be hounded from office and public life over the coming years as the scale of their lies becomes apparent. Not that they will care that much. They are shielded from the effects of what is about to happen and will be absolutely fine. And FREE :-)

    I don't think so. The people who argued that there would be bad consequences will be blamed, along with the EU who will be seen as punishing us for not rescuing us from those consequences.

    We have been through a lot of this in Scotland already. People who switch don't always say, "I have changed my mind". They see their switch to Yes/Leave as a journey - "I didn't leave Labour/the Conservatives. They left me." The betrayal has already happened and it wasn't by the group they have just joined. Any bad things will be assigned to the people they think betrayed them.

    There is a lot of psychology in this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    ://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/743377579860713472

    Imagine if they show a remain lead....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Scott_P said:

    @budslinger1972: @angelaeagle why do you support the most corrupt undemocratic organisation in the world?

    @angelaeagle: I don't support FIFA https://t.co/Znaq3Q9Rwl

    :)

    Jokes aside, things like that might account for some of the voters scepticism about international institutions.

    A lot more ordinary voters will have heard about FIFA and its scandals than any other, I suspect.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    MaxPB said:

    Brussels are saying "non" to a EuroVow from what I've just heard. Junker is only going to reiterate how much stronger the UK is in the EU and that leaving will cause turbulence to both the UK and the EU. There will be no concessions on free movement, but he also won't talk about punishment beatings if we choose to Leave because they think it will be counter-productive.

    He is mainly going to concentrate on foreign policy apparently because the economic argument has spectacularly failed to move votes.

    Might as well save his breath then.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Lennon, fair enough. What's the Pirate position on the referendum?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,874

    Scott_P said:

    If Brexit triumphs and — contrary to its proponents’ assurances — jobs go, workers’ rights disappear and living standards fall, if our enemies everywhere make their delight clear that Britain has turned its back on the world, if all the promises of a magic money tree turn out to be as fraudulent now as they ever were, right-wing populists will learn what true populist anger looks like.

    Brexit voters won’t blame themselves. Voters never do. They will blame the politicians and pundits who made them look like fools. Common sense will turn into communal rage as those who have accused every-one else of lying will be revealed as the greatest liars of all.


    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/why-the-leave-campaign-should-pray-they-dont-win/

    Voters will be right to blame those who sold them the snake oil.
    Leave have promised higher wages, more jobs, lower housing costs, more public spending, much lower immigration.
    They now have to deliver.
    One correction. It was the Chair of the REMAIN BSIE campaign who first stated that wages would be higher with Brexit. So that is the originator of the promise in the main public's mind.

    Leave have promised higher wages. And more jobs.

  • The nasty side of the Guardian, misquoting an elderly man.
    http://order-order.com/2016/06/16/how-remainers-stitched-up-goves-elderly-father/

    To their credit, the Guardian posted the full transcript of the interview here. Doesn't seem that bad to me, but decide for yourself : http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/15/eu-referendum-live-osborne-punishment-budget-farage-flotilla-thames?page=with:block-5761aa3ee4b04ceead988c83#block-5761aa3ee4b04ceead988c83
    He is quoted as 80 in one place and 79 in another. Either way he is an old man. Good people take care in their dealings with the elderly. Bad people misuse them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    An interesting thought from a Lib Dem. Cameron falls on his sword before the vote.

    "It makes me think that David Cameron has one last card to play if Leave are still ahead in the final 48 hours before the poll: he can announce to the nation a few days before the referendum vote that after June 23rd, regardless of outcome, he will step down as prime minister."
    http://nicktyrone.com/camerons-last-ditch-move-keep-us-europe/

    What good would that do - I cannot see that happening
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    If Brexit triumphs and — contrary to its proponents’ assurances — jobs go, workers’ rights disappear and living standards fall, if our enemies everywhere make their delight clear that Britain has turned its back on the world, if all the promises of a magic money tree turn out to be as fraudulent now as they ever were, right-wing populists will learn what true populist anger looks like.

    Brexit voters won’t blame themselves. Voters never do. They will blame the politicians and pundits who made them look like fools. Common sense will turn into communal rage as those who have accused every-one else of lying will be revealed as the greatest liars of all.


    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/why-the-leave-campaign-should-pray-they-dont-win/

    It's amazing that these Blairite hacks and Iraq War cheerleaders are still employed by respectable publications.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    ://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/743377579860713472

    Imagine if they show a remain lead....
    The pollsters are certainly bottling it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Jokes aside, things like that might account for some of the voters scepticism about international institutions.

    A lot more ordinary voters will have heard about FIFA and its scandals than any other, I suspect.

    Indeed, And the World Cup "vote" also reinforces the 'England hard done to by the World' meme
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    A little birdie tells me the next Ipsos Mori poll will be out this time next week, and their fieldwork will continue until 9pm of the 22nd of June.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Scott_P said:

    @budslinger1972: @angelaeagle why do you support the most corrupt undemocratic organisation in the world?

    @angelaeagle: I don't support FIFA https://t.co/Znaq3Q9Rwl

    :)

    Jokes aside, things like that might account for some of the voters scepticism about international institutions.

    A lot more ordinary voters will have heard about FIFA and its scandals than any other, I suspect.
    The thing with fifa as well is everybody knew about the corruption etc but nobody could reform it & the feeling the home nations FAs got told to get stuffed despite by the premier league etc generating the most money etc etc etc. Now the more I think about it, it does rather sound like another organisation.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,874

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.

    Wishful thinking? Denial?
    I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit

    The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Brussels are saying "non" to a EuroVow from what I've just heard. Junker is only going to reiterate how much stronger the UK is in the EU and that leaving will cause turbulence to both the UK and the EU. There will be no concessions on free movement, but he also won't talk about punishment beatings if we choose to Leave because they think it will be counter-productive.

    He is mainly going to concentrate on foreign policy apparently because the economic argument has spectacularly failed to move votes.

    Might as well save his breath then.
    Foreign policy is the one area I guess they feel Britain is extremely strong within the EU, we have been leading on it since it was pooled. I don't know how much sway that will hold for Mondeo Man though.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    edited June 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Lennon said:

    O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?

    Yup, the fact I've not done a thread on it in the past month says it all.

    17k matched on Betfair for it, and 31m matched on the EURef.
    Labour cakewalk. The new candidate is a non-Corbynite moderate called Khan, who also happens to be a pretty local doctor from St George's hospital. I expect Labour to increase their majority on a small turnout.
    Labour remainers have been fine this EURef, Labour leavers outstanding (Hillary Benn, Gisela Stuart both spring to mind as good performers). Corbyn hasn't done too badly with the general public either, having the obvious sceptisicm alot of wavering remainers do about Europe and not the bullshitfest DC and GO have given.
    Hillary Benn is for Remain. He is, to my knowledge, the only on either side who has told the truth about immigration: we have high immigration because it benefits our economy and it won't substantially change after a Leave vote.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Brussels are saying "non" to a EuroVow from what I've just heard. Junker is only going to reiterate how much stronger the UK is in the EU and that leaving will cause turbulence to both the UK and the EU. There will be no concessions on free movement, but he also won't talk about punishment beatings if we choose to Leave because they think it will be counter-productive.

    He is mainly going to concentrate on foreign policy apparently because the economic argument has spectacularly failed to move votes.

    Might as well save his breath then.
    Foreign policy is the one area I guess they feel Britain is extremely strong within the EU, we have been leading on it since it was pooled. I don't know how much sway that will hold for Mondeo Man though.
    Square root of SFA.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Lennon said:

    O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?


    UKIP could have a strong showing in view of the referendum.
    it won't in Tooting. They will be lucky to get 10-15%.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, aren't polling day polls (ahem, excepting the actual vote) verboten?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    An interesting thought from a Lib Dem. Cameron falls on his sword before the vote.

    "It makes me think that David Cameron has one last card to play if Leave are still ahead in the final 48 hours before the poll: he can announce to the nation a few days before the referendum vote that after June 23rd, regardless of outcome, he will step down as prime minister."
    http://nicktyrone.com/camerons-last-ditch-move-keep-us-europe/

    I posted a hypothetical question about that the other day, I think it could help, but it would at the same time contradict the labour "don't vote leave, the other tories are worse than cameron" line. I think it would be a net positive though, would help give him the air of graciousness, which may help generate symptahy amongst those who currently have lost confidence in him
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.

    Wishful thinking? Denial?
    I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit

    The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)

    All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,874
    Mortimer said:

    I have been convinced from the start that Leave would win - few have more of an emotional connection with the EU than with the arguments offered by Leave.

    My anecdote from last night was that friends on Fb who don't do politics have started to realise the inevitable. This has widened today - mostly AB bankers suggesting financial implications, followed by some insult to Leavers. Utterly hilarious.

    If we get QE post-Brexit vote - as many think is likely - then the bankers will be delighted.

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Not sure any reason why DC should stand down in 9 days time but he might announce the date for it - the country will need a bit of stability.

    But if Leave win, they don't want stability. They want revolution.

    Vote Leave so that nothing changes... Not really their core message.
    Remain isn't for stability either - a 20m extra citizens in the Uk and is hardly a recipe for stability is it ?
    Well, let's try and reign in on the fantasy numbers here. The IFS models out to 2030. If immigration runs at current levels, that means an extra 4.6 million. If we dip back to the recent nadir (at the height of the recent financial crisis) it's ~ 3 million.

    If we manage to actually pull a Cameron it'll be 1.4 million. So the range is around 3.2 million. A mere bagatelle, that's hardly three Birmingham's worth. If fact, we should adopt that as our measure of immigration, Birminghams per decade, the Brummigen. Any seconders?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956

    Mr. Eagles, aren't polling day polls (ahem, excepting the actual vote) verboten?

    Polls saying how people have voted are verboten, but polls saying how people intend to vote are fine.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The thing with fifa as well is everybody knew about the corruption etc but nobody could reform it & the feeling the home nations FAs got told to get stuffed despite by the premier league etc generating the most money etc etc etc. Now the more I think about it, it does rather sound like another organisation.

    Dan Hannan made an explicit comparison

    But of course he wasn't able to complete the logical argument that England* would be better off outside FIFA...

    *Other Home Nations are available.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Scott_P said:
    The cartoon reflects the London elite failing to connect with fishermen.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122

    Scott_P said:

    If Brexit triumphs and — contrary to its proponents’ assurances — jobs go, workers’ rights disappear and living standards fall, if our enemies everywhere make their delight clear that Britain has turned its back on the world, if all the promises of a magic money tree turn out to be as fraudulent now as they ever were, right-wing populists will learn what true populist anger looks like.

    Brexit voters won’t blame themselves. Voters never do. They will blame the politicians and pundits who made them look like fools. Common sense will turn into communal rage as those who have accused every-one else of lying will be revealed as the greatest liars of all.


    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/why-the-leave-campaign-should-pray-they-dont-win/

    Voters will be right to blame those who sold them the snake oil.

    Leave have promised higher wages, more jobs, lower housing costs, more public spending, much lower immigration.

    They now have to deliver.

    It is quite an extraordinary hostage to fortune plugged by many on here too. For the sake of the country one hopes they're right - it just sounds like one huge bucketful of wishful thinking. One thing however I do suspect - I'm not sure the right will win the next GE - and I fear even more - a Labour post-Brexit government.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835
    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Lennon said:

    O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?

    Yup, the fact I've not done a thread on it in the past month says it all.

    17k matched on Betfair for it, and 31m matched on the EURef.
    Labour cakewalk. The new candidate is a non-Corbynite moderate called Khan, who also happens to be a pretty local doctor from St George's hospital. I expect Labour to increase their majority on a small turnout.
    Labour remainers have been fine this EURef, Labour leavers outstanding (Hillary Benn, Gisela Stuart both spring to mind as good performers). Corbyn hasn't done too badly with the general public either, having the obvious sceptisicm alot of wavering remainers do about Europe and not the bullshitfest DC and GO have given.
    Hillary Benn is for Remain. He is, to my knowledge, the only on either side who has told the truth about immigration: we have high immigration because it benefits our economy and it won't substantially change after a Leave vote.
    Unfortunately for Mr Benn the twerp Eddie Izzard was also on the same Question Time at the same time.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Morning all.

    A week is a long time in politics, and all that.

    @TSE: sent you an email.
  • Sturgeon won't be planning a second Indyref if this poll turns out to be accurate. I'd say she needs at least 55-45 in Scotland for Remain to dare go for it, as it would really be a "bet the farm" gamble for the SNP.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122

    Lennon said:

    O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?


    UKIP could have a strong showing in view of the referendum.
    Unlikely - Tooting is not fertile territory for them
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Mortimer said:

    Just to confirm TSE - referendum has to be called by Wedtminster to have any legal status...

    Yep, its a deliberate change in the law to ensure there will never be another referendum...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    Pulpstar said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Lennon said:

    O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?

    Yup, the fact I've not done a thread on it in the past month says it all.

    17k matched on Betfair for it, and 31m matched on the EURef.
    Labour cakewalk. The new candidate is a non-Corbynite moderate called Khan, who also happens to be a pretty local doctor from St George's hospital. I expect Labour to increase their majority on a small turnout.
    Labour remainers have been fine this EURef, Labour leavers outstanding (Hillary Benn, Gisela Stuart both spring to mind as good performers). Corbyn hasn't done too badly with the general public either, having the obvious sceptisicm alot of wavering remainers do about Europe and not the bullshitfest DC and GO have given.
    Hillary Benn is for Remain. He is, to my knowledge, the only on either side who has told the truth about immigration: we have high immigration because it benefits our economy and it won't substantially change after a Leave vote.
    Unfortunately for Mr Benn the twerp Eddie Izzard was also on the same Question Time at the same time.
    Also it isn't a message anyone wants to hear.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835

    Mr. Eagles, aren't polling day polls (ahem, excepting the actual vote) verboten?

    Polls saying how people have voted are verboten, but polls saying how people intend to vote are fine.
    The polls should be picking up postal votes by now though.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122

    Scott_P said:

    If Brexit triumphs and — contrary to its proponents’ assurances — jobs go, workers’ rights disappear and living standards fall, if our enemies everywhere make their delight clear that Britain has turned its back on the world, if all the promises of a magic money tree turn out to be as fraudulent now as they ever were, right-wing populists will learn what true populist anger looks like.

    Brexit voters won’t blame themselves. Voters never do. They will blame the politicians and pundits who made them look like fools. Common sense will turn into communal rage as those who have accused every-one else of lying will be revealed as the greatest liars of all.


    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/why-the-leave-campaign-should-pray-they-dont-win/

    Voters will be right to blame those who sold them the snake oil.
    Leave have promised higher wages, more jobs, lower housing costs, more public spending, much lower immigration.
    They now have to deliver.
    One correction. It was the Chair of the REMAIN BSIE campaign who first stated that wages would be higher with Brexit. So that is the originator of the promise in the main public's mind.
    So you are admitting the forecast is wrong are you?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Have been speaking with mother and she's very pleased that Sir Cliff is innocent.

    She also thinks South Yorkshire Police and the BBC have got questions to answer...
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    Scott_P said:

    If Brexit triumphs and — contrary to its proponents’ assurances — jobs go, workers’ rights disappear and living standards fall, if our enemies everywhere make their delight clear that Britain has turned its back on the world, if all the promises of a magic money tree turn out to be as fraudulent now as they ever were, right-wing populists will learn what true populist anger looks like.

    Brexit voters won’t blame themselves. Voters never do. They will blame the politicians and pundits who made them look like fools. Common sense will turn into communal rage as those who have accused every-one else of lying will be revealed as the greatest liars of all.


    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/why-the-leave-campaign-should-pray-they-dont-win/

    Voters will be right to blame those who sold them the snake oil.

    Leave have promised higher wages, more jobs, lower housing costs, more public spending, much lower immigration.

    They now have to deliver.

    No - they haven't won yet...
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016

    An interesting thought from a Lib Dem. Cameron falls on his sword before the vote.

    "It makes me think that David Cameron has one last card to play if Leave are still ahead in the final 48 hours before the poll: he can announce to the nation a few days before the referendum vote that after June 23rd, regardless of outcome, he will step down as prime minister."
    http://nicktyrone.com/camerons-last-ditch-move-keep-us-europe/

    That would be piling stupidity on stupidity. I'm sure some people are voting to 'wipe the smile of their faces' as the advert enjoins us to do. There can't be that many, surely?

    Most of the ex-Cameron fans are shaking their heads more in sorrow than in anger. For me, it's a bit like discovering your favourite child is being done for shoplifting. All that promise, all that reputation, squandered for a mess of EU pottage.

    It would be a daft idea, and it wouldn't achieve anything.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835

    Sturgeon won't be planning a second Indyref if this poll turns out to be accurate. I'd say she needs at least 55-45 in Scotland for Remain to dare go for it, as it would really be a "bet the farm" gamble for the SNP.

    SUBSAMPLE KLAXON.

    DO NOT BACK BREXIT IN SCOTLAND OFF THE BACK OF THAT ARTICLE.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited June 2016
    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Lennon said:

    O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?

    Yup, the fact I've not done a thread on it in the past month says it all.

    17k matched on Betfair for it, and 31m matched on the EURef.
    Labour cakewalk. The new candidate is a non-Corbynite moderate called Khan, who also happens to be a pretty local doctor from St George's hospital. I expect Labour to increase their majority on a small turnout.
    Labour remainers have been fine this EURef, Labour leavers outstanding (Hillary Benn, Gisela Stuart both spring to mind as good performers). Corbyn hasn't done too badly with the general public either, having the obvious sceptisicm alot of wavering remainers do about Europe and not the bullshitfest DC and GO have given.
    Hillary Benn is for Remain. He is, to my knowledge, the only on either side who has told the truth about immigration: we have high immigration because it benefits our economy and it won't substantially change after a Leave vote.
    Unfortunately for Mr Benn the twerp Eddie Izzard was also on the same Question Time at the same time.
    Also it isn't a message anyone wants to hear.
    It also masks the effect that while immigration may benefit the economy as a whole, for many individuals it does the exact opposite... And those individuals have an equal vote to those immigration has benefited.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    Scott_P said:

    @budslinger1972: @angelaeagle why do you support the most corrupt undemocratic organisation in the world?

    @angelaeagle: I don't support FIFA https://t.co/Znaq3Q9Rwl

    :)

    Jokes aside, things like that might account for some of the voters scepticism about international institutions.

    A lot more ordinary voters will have heard about FIFA and its scandals than any other, I suspect.
    The thing with fifa as well is everybody knew about the corruption etc but nobody could reform it & the feeling the home nations FAs got told to get stuffed despite by the premier league etc generating the most money etc etc etc. Now the more I think about it, it does rather sound like another organisation.
    Organisations and the people in them will see things from their perspective and from the point of view of what benefits them.

    People are very good at extrapolating that what is good for them personally is good for everyone else too.
This discussion has been closed.