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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Roger on a step change in negative political advertising
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Roger on a step change in negative political advertising
Exactly six weeks ago in my first header on the campaign from an advertising perspective I wrote “The advantages of a negative campaign by REMAIN are obvious, the unknown can be made to seem a scary place. By contrast for the LEAVERS dystopian visions are a difficult sell when the EU has been with us for 40 years.”
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Oh, and first.
Might I posit that most people do not possess any expertise or familiarity with Nazi propaganda? The only wartime propaganda I recall seeing in any books was either British or Soviet (mainly because British propaganda is still quite funny, and Soviet propaganda is ART). I'm writing as a WW2 buff.
I asked my 23 year old daughter what she thought. She didn't get any reference to anything. She just said 'I don't get it'. Which in its own way means that Farage has failed.
I mentioned the other day that the next GE will have voters who were born after 9/11. Symbols that might resonate with us mean nothing to them. They're children of the 21st century.
Nazis? The British Empire? Saatchi & Saatchi? Wut?
Good rugby writer, pretty cack on the politics.
But and there is a but. We have the mainly inhouse messaging and work of VoteLEAVE with (I believe) Canadian work VS the professionals hired by REMAIN. And look at who is winning.
Sorry to be harsh, but suspending the campaigns until Monday (or later) is totally inappropriate. Democracy makes we the people sovereign, not our MPs. While this event is clearly a tragedy, the personal feelings of our elected representatives is not as important as the referendum which will take place next Thursday. Nobody should be forced to campaign if they do not wish to, but it is totally wrong to force that suspension on others for an extended period. It reveals yet again the narcissism of our political classes that the loss of one of their own, however tragic, should outweigh the magnitude of next week's vote.
The best tribute to Jo Cox MP would be to carry on leafleting, canvassing and arguing until 10pm on Thursday 23 June. We must not allow the functioning of our electoral system to be changed by the actions of terrorists or lunatics.
Who or what is "MLK"
Sleazier than I thought.
How repeatable the "lessons" are I don't know. Is it the Leicester City of the political world - just a one off you cannot legislate for?
Will try and pull back some political mojo tomorrow
Brendan O'Neill was spot on. As usual.
Memo to self "liquid lunches are no good for the memory."
What of Cameron's set piece Question Time tomorrow?
Surely the sensible thing would have been for the campaigning to resume tomorrow, after a 48 hour pause, with the language of the last few weeks turned down somewhat as a mark of respect for the fallen MP.
Practical joke idea..everyone dress in ape costumes when Tim Peak returns from the Space Station tomorrow
Jim Pickard @PickardJE
David Cameron: "Where we see hatred, where we see division, where we see intolerance we must drive it out of our public life and politics."
https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/743789659222867968
Good afternoon, everyone.
[Joke]
I don't even recall seeing her being elected televised on Election Night, unless others remember otherwise?
I'm sure one factor in holding the referendum in such a tight time-frame was to avoid having the next bout of the migrant crisis all over the news channels. Odd, in a way, since so few of them actually reach Britain (this, and the fact the picture clearly shows desperate people escaping a desperate situation, is largely why I feel the UKIP poster is so wrong-headed) but there was clearly a fear voters would associate the optics with the risks of a remain vote.
Perhaps it was a strategic mistake - may well not be such a dramatic crisis this year, or even if there is it might be "last year's moral outrage" and get reduced coverage, and the short renegotiation period may not have worked in his favout. My window cleaner today remarked, with no prompting to talk about politics whatsoever, that it was "the big vote" next week and he didn't understand why there'd been such a rush to get the referendum so soon, as any really deep reforms would surely need extensive more extensive negotiations. (He was also visibly upset by the murder of Jo Cox - but which didn't seem to change his determination to vote leave, on all the stereotypical grounds which he ticked off unprompted like a checklist: "it's meant to be a trade area, but that's not what it's about now", "we're in a club where we don't really believe the main principles of the club", "it's not all about immigration - but it brings a lot of pressures, especially for housing" and "I'm patriotic and hate it when they say we can't survive on our own - we survived for hundreds of years before, we can cope now").
Sample size of one, of course, but I do find it refreshing and healthy that - despite all the heat and so little light of the campaigns - people who don't normally think about politics, are taking it to heart.
By the way, been watching CNN and looking at the international press this morning. The murder of Jo Cox is the biggest story in the world right now, and pretty much the whole international media are linking her death to the referendum.
Once your own era has surpassed your democraphic target audience, it's a cut-through fail.
MLK means nothing to me bar PBS documentaries. The Winter of Discontent feels very real. The Cuban Missile crisis is history - whilst CND was huge in my younger days. I picked up stories about WW2 from my grandparents/parents re evacuees and rationing.
We all have a timeframe we use to judge things by. Some folk fail to realise this.
To some degree they are succeeding, egged on by those Remain stalwarts on the BBC and Sky News; together with the Tory and Labour elite.
I wonder if all the people murdered this week in the UK will also be remembered and diefied, I bet not.
If they're stopping the campaign until Tuesday, they must be awful.
Dave is desperately trying to look Prime Ministerial after 3 tough weeks.
The effect of the advertising, I guess, is that the lies cut through the exaggerations.
Every now and then we need to get a bit of perspective. On this occasion, the perspective shows us that something very different and quite horrible has happened within our democratic system. The risk is not of making too much of this but of making too little. We should all be reflecting very carefully indeed about what this means for our democratic processes.
The average WWC voter this poster is aimed at is unlikely to be following twitter or to understand any linkage to Nazi propaganda images. They might see it in their newspaper or get an email from a friend. Or not see it at all and go out to vote leave because, as said, their underlying racism or xenophobia or genuine concerns about migration have never been addressed because they were deliberately kept off the agenda.
Will a UK identity outside the EU be outward-looking and positive/inclusivist, or introspectively negative/exclusivist?
Will a UK inside the EU prosper as a free country, or see its identity diminished and diluted towards irrelevance? Who and what, really, are we?"
https://twitter.com/CharlesCrawford
charlescrawford.biz/2016/06/17/jo-cox-and-binary-politics/ …
The appropriate response to extremists and lunatics who want to disrupt democracy is to have more democracy: there should be a by-election campaign in Batley in the spirit of the democractic values and debate Jo Cox seemingly worked so hard to uphold.
What happened yesterday is very, very sad. The competitive grieving for it is unseemly.
Is there no way that Leave can still win but both campaigns lose?
I have overheard more conversations today about yesterday’s football than this tragedy.
Ian Gow was murdered by the IRA in 1990.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_serving_British_MPs_who_were_assassinated
I still think Remain will edge this, especially after yesterday, but for me the point when this changed was the publication of the latest immigration figures and the realisation that Osborne's higher growth was built on the premise this was going to go on forever. For me that is when Remain lost the status quo vote and remain stopped looking like the safe option. Has the mood changed again? I don't know. It feels close, very close.
[Guardian] Tory MP Jason McCartney tells us he wants parliament recalled, with MPs from all parties mixing and sitting together on both sides of house.
Personally I'm in the carry on regardless camp, but I think we should respect those who honestly disagree and want to wait a few days. Back in 1995, I was the Labour candidate for E Sussex and S Kent in the European Parliament elections, and we had one big fund-raiser with Denis Healey as key speaker. Then John Smith died. I suggested that we strart the meeting with a minute's silence, but Denis told the party that he couldn't bear speaking so soon after his friend's death, and the party decided to cancel it.
I grumbled that this wasn't what John would have wanted and it meant that the campaign would be hugely underfunded. 24 hours later, a large anonymous donation came through, and a few days later another. Both, I gathered were from Denis, but he didn't want to be thanked. Nice man. BUt I still think that carrying on would have been OK.
That said. we probably overestimate the importance of campaigning anyway, and a few days' pause for thought may not be a bad thing.