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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BMG polls brings good news for both sides
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BMG polls brings good news for both sides
BMG have conducted simultaneous online and phone polls. The online poll sees what we’ve seen in other recent polls, with a significant swing to Leave, giving Leave a 10% lead.
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Nowt so deaf as those who won't hear.
I don't get your point here. I'm disappointed that Osborne wasn't more aggressive on deficit reduction. He's repeatedly moved his target backwards. There's certainly no hard deadline in 2020 - it's Osborne's current judgement call. He may have felt that it was the right thing to do, given that the markets haven't reacted to our still colossal deficit spending.
The price we're paying is that extra £23 billion p.a. in debt servicing costs. In total we're now paying ~£70 billion to service our debts, which is around 3% of GDP or ~9% of public spending.
So, no necessity but yes, pretty significant opportunity cost.
It's even more likely to be the case now.
Can we say now that the polling is unreliable, and that by next weekend the discussion will be about how bad the polls were, again?
Anecdote Alert
I was out with a mate who works high up in the treasury last night.
They are preparing for brexit and evidently its chaos as Osbourne had instructed the department not to initiate the exit planning until
Very late in the day.
He also put £1000 on leave yesterday at 7/4
"We're making a single decision and for that we need to ignore the trivial and see the bigger picture. The bigger picture for a country of the size and standing of the UK is what will it do to our reputation and standing in the world and how will other countries react to us and interconnect with us.
We are seen as a tolerant and vibrant liberal democracy who punches well above our weight. It's a reputation that has taken decades to acquire and if we vote Leave it'll be lost in a day. We'll be seen as squalid intolerant xenophobes.
And that's the bigger picture."
People will see what they want to see but what will have happened is that a country has taken a democratic decision. It is not reputation which ultimately matters but substance. I think BTW that you have a pretty rosy picture of how Britain is see. Britain has not been known as Perfidious Albion for nothing.
The bigger picture here is not what some editorials in foreign newspapers say. The bigger picture here is democracy.
If the EU - as currently constituted (I am all for reform of the EU but it is not offer and the EU's idea of reform is more centralisation which is "reform" from the Louis XIV playbook) - makes it a choice between it and democracy, then I choose democracy every time.
Those who worry about how they are perceived are the ones missing the bigger picture.
I regret Farage's involvement. He does not represent my Britain. I dislike Marine Le Pen but it does not detract from my view of France as a great civilised nation. Berlusconi was un cafone, as the Italians say. But Italy is a civilised country. Etc.
I hope that the Bank of England and the Debt Management Office have made extensive plans though.
"BMG’s Online EU Referendum tracker shows big shift to Leave, now on 51%(+6), and Remain down 2pts on 41% (DK/PNTS = 9%)."
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgherald-final-eu-referendum-poll/
Our primary issues are the current account deficit and our very poor productivity trend.
Vlad the Remainer
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/vladimir-putin-states-david-cameron-may-have-called-eu-referendu/
Whilst they may not be a member of the BPC, the latter hardly stood anyone in good stead at GE2015. Qrious work often in the US and their poll was for USA today.
http://www.qriously.com/blog/jo-cox-murder-influence-outcome-eu-referendum/
The sample before Jo Cox's murder is 2000 and 1000 on Friday. Everything is apparently weighted.
The poll is interesting and we need to see if it's borne out by others.
Aside from the horror of the attack, the devastating loss of a great MP, Mother and wife you'd have thought (I did) that the murder might see people turn to Remain. Both anecdotally and in the poll that appears not to be the case. I know quite a few remain supporters now turned off politics: and that was the sentiment that Qrious detected. If that's true they may well be temporary losses and return by next week.
As I say, we shall have to see if this bears any resemblance to other polls this weekend. However, there's one hammer blow finding for me:
60% think Immigration will be worse under Remain compared to 6% if we Leave.
One other thing. If Remain win, then this 20% Leave lead six days before the vote would be the mother and father of all polling muck ups.
One assumes that some of the Senior CS have at least an outline plan in place for what needs to happen next Friday if the vote is to Leave?
He could get 9/5 (2.8) on Betfair
If Leave win, I think it'll be narrow. That said, I would also have said I'd be stunned if the Conservatives got a majority in 2015.
Leave 58%
Remain 41%
Spoilt 1%
But I prefaced that with 'in the event of nothing significant.'
If the Qrious poll is right about the trend to Leave then I'll stick with the above.
Morning all.
Just a thought - Leavers are probably more vocal in their support, whilst Remainers appear somewhat less enthusiastic, or ambivalent at best by comparison. This may give the impression when polled that Remainers are shy or uncommitted ie normal..!
Had they said, we are in a union of like-minded people who have the same aims. We differ about the ways and means sometimes but that can discussed openly.
Instead we had the head-bangers let loose. These are the facts, if you don't agree with us, you'll all thick bastards. Don't say anything about immigration, you racists. And for a very small minority, you murdering racists.
When Maggie entered Downing Street, she quoted St Francis. She may not have kept to it, but it was a nice touch.
We had George and Dave on a PR campaign worthy of Genghis Khan.
If you're pushing for mutual co-operation in Europe, you need to show mutual co-operation in the UK first.
However, the Germans have been making increasingly loud noises about weakening sanctions (as have other East European countries), as it's hurting some sectors in the West almost as much as it is the Russians. Note the German foreign minister's comments about the NATO's ANACONDA exercise in Poland as well. This might just be a tiny quid pro quo.
Realpolitik is too complex for mere muggles to understand though, I'm just guessing.
Still trying to decide what to do about staying up for the results.
Polls were seeing a remain win. That changed on Tuesday night. Sounds as though their internal polling switched at that point.
He said there is a plan but its not as formed as it should be.
Mr. Timmo, that's shocking incompetence and complacency by Osborne/the Civil Service.
a) they're not in the BPC
b) you don't like it
or
c) you can't think of a pop pun?
Answers on a postcard please pretty please.
Serious q. though: why no mention?
I favour the usual balance between what should be legal and what I think is good taste. But in general I think the things you can't legally say (e.g. "let's kill all Yorkshiremen") should be pretty tightly defined and anything else should be legal.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time.
Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups.
The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647461/Loner-suspected-murdering-MP-Jo-Cox-crisis-sought-help-health-counsellor-just-24-hours-attack.html
Even if they've got this wrong, I'm pretty convinced mobiles are the way forward for polling.
Whatever the result Dave and George are damaged goods .
I've seen someone failed by mental health crisis care, which also led to death. No-one's going to apportion blame without knowing more facts and there will be an inquiry but that's not great really. Bugger.
They could be, and there is the occasional green shoot for remain, but for many of them not only do they have to be significantly wrong, you'd also need quite large switching on the day, can remain really pull off both when they have nothing new to say, only the hope people wake up to what they have been saying?
The issue is, I'm yet to see any tables, and someone who knows their onions about opinion polls says Qrious usually poll via a mobile app, which doesn't produce a representative sample, and this is their first political poll, they normally do only consumer/brand polling.
So until I see tables and a methodology note, it's not worth commenting upon.
And shame on Hain, Toynbee and their cyphers here.
Presumably not the arguments all being in favour of Remain? It can't be the popular press because they are all favouring Leave. It presumably can't be the fact that expert opinion is all on their side, because Leave dismiss expert opinion. It can't be the ability to use the machinery of government because doing that is apparently a misuse of power.
So other than the polls favouring Remain before the referendum starts, i'm not sure what the basis of the victory being "easy" were based?
SeanT came out with a wonderful political conspiracy plot yesterday. He did preface it by saying it would work as fiction rather than truth.
I dread anything tipping the scales either way at the last minute. I mean, god forbid, but can you imagine if there's a terrorist attack on Monday? Please no.
Apart from fantasising in the papers did she do anything to resolve this "real problem"
1) large initial leads
2) having the PM leading
3) having an easy economic argument
4) having a clear majority of the political establishment onside
5) having the likes of the IMF and Bank of England, making helpful noises at the least
Arrogance, complacency and a failure to get good lines prepared for obvious questions (such as those about Turkey joining the EU), coupled with ridiculous hyperbole that has severely damaged Cameron and Remain's credibility (global war, anyone?) have all made this far closer than it should've been.
With the possible exception of Johnson & Gove & Field, all the well-known heavyweight politicians in all the major parties are advising Remain.
This is not like the Sindy (where the Yessers had the support of the Scottish Govt and a major party).
If Gove and Johnson win and one becomes PM then they will be judged by what they do in office. Democratically accountable.
There is little or no consistency of presentation. They need to get their act together and provide an executive summary with four key numbers;
1) All respondents
2) All certain (10/10 to vote)
3) All likely to vote
4) Pollsters favoured weighting model.
http://www.qriously.com/blog/jo-cox-murder-influence-outcome-eu-referendum/
I cannot see why a mobile App should be any less representative than a landline? In fact since I know less than 10% of people who ever use a landline phone, let alone have one, I'd have thought mobiles are much more accurate? Everyone has one, even my 84 yr old mum.
Yet more proof the eu and its supporters don't think there is a problem and thus words of reform are hollow and meaningless. Anyone trying to reform or forced to confront that millions in their country wants out is the problem, not the fact that people want out itself.
[For clarification: I am not Mr. Estobar's mum].
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgherald-final-eu-referendum-poll/
In it BMG promote their “EU sentiment index” as a method of dealing with “undecideds and/or refusers”.
“To this end, BMG has created an EU sentiment index based on respondents’ views to a series of statements about Britain’s relationship with the EU. The sentiment index is designed to build an understanding of the relationship between key statements and voting intention and thereafter infer the likely voting intentions of undecideds and refusals.
. . .
the predictive power of the index was modelled in a multivariate regression along with other key variables such as age and social grade (both of which appear to be important determinants of voting intention). See model results below.” The Z column should be the ratio of the coefficient estimate to its standard error, and it is in all cases apart from the critical EU sentiment index.
The reported standard error is 10 times as large as implied by the Z-ratio.
This is probably a typo.
Otherwise the vaunted index is statistically insignificant.
I'm toying with the idea of getting one at some point (both my parents have tablets and mobiles, and my dad also has a laptop).
I did get a stunned look from the lady at the optician's when she asked me for my mobile number and I said I didn't have one.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Midwinter, the problem Cameron's had has been his incompetence in the campaign. He can be rather good at national unity. Instead he wibbled about Armageddon.
As the EU has enlarged, the flows have become larger, but one might have reasonably expected almost a tidal flow based on national economic cycles, e.g. recession in France, move to Germany, recession in Germany, move to France. However, in practice, flows have simply been from poor countries to rich.
The Eurozone as it currently stands has locked its members into a distorted economic framework and institutionalised high unemployment in several of those members. If you can't be like Germany, you suffer.
Add in the migration crisis and you have a leadership that's trying to turn a supertanker containing half a billion people using extremely substandard controls.
I'm not sure the EU *wants* to be inflexible. I just don't see how it *can* be flexible. Even QMV can't help it, with anything truly radical being subject to veto.
It also skews against those who live in poor mobile signal areas, making landlines essential.
And if you think those are tables, then you really should stop commenting upon opinion polls.
I'd have to go back and check, and you can no doubt correct, but my impression had been you were saying there were and to a limited extent are some things that set us apart historically, but those are a little out of date now, ie there is more that we have in common, not that those listed things were out of date ?
I know from personal experience that many of them really believed that, to quote the Bloomberg Lady in the Luton article
"Somehow, over the last half-century, Western elites managed to convince themselves that nationalism was not real. Perhaps it had been real in the past, like cholera and telegraph machines, but now that we were smarter and more modern, it would be forgotten in the due course of time as better ideas supplanted it"
and they do indeed find it "horrifying [to] care more about people who are like you than you do about people who are culturally or geographically further away"
They also thought that 80-90% of people thought like they do and it was just an unrepresentative gaggle of evil horrid right wingers that thought otherwise.
Now they discover that a majority of people feel like that. (they also think Farage has blood on his hands as a liberal friend informed me within minutes of the incident)
The shock to them must be akin to well documented ghastly shock that devout Marxists had when on the outbreak of World War 1 the working classes did not rise up and destroy their government but fought fiercely for their country.
Rather than worrying people (apart from middle-class professionals already inclined to play it safe) it has exemplified the contempt that too many marginalised voters believe the elites hold for them.
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