Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This evening’s rolling polling coverage
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This evening’s rolling polling coverage
New @OpiniumResearch #EUref Remain 44% (nc) Leave: 44% (+2). Fieldwork almost all of it conducted before the murder of Jo Cox
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Two in a row
Bye.
Enjoy your Italian hols, but if you suffer from asthma and chest stuff- have you thought of buying a good dehumidifier and air purifier. After many years as a fellow sufferer I am now completely off all meds.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/744283164697333760
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/eu-referendum-remain-lead-one/
1) debate switched from immigration to the economy (that's what Osborne's budget did)
2) immigration focus becoming less of a slam dunk campaign issue in the light of Jo Cox's murder
"Some people might take the view that a rigged vote, rigged ineptly, is possibly not a vote that has been rigged..."
So, you believe that if I take a biased dice, and carry out the biasing "ineptly", the result is fair dice.
Actually, the result is a biased dice.
I am not a Tory, but if I were, I might be very angry at what the process of "rigging ineptly" has done to the Tory party.
What is interesting about these polls is I wonder what effect it will have on the day.
I have already said that according to Laura Kunsberg there are 10 millions leavers who will walk across hot coals, through snow storms and eathquakes to vote leave and 5 million enthusiastic remainers.
Who knows how these polls will affect differential turnout.
I also note that it did not take long for Cameron to get in and lower the tone to the sort of nasty school yard taunting he seems to think works. Tw*t.
In my twenty-six years in this country, I have never felt more foreign, less welcome, more marginalised, or less safe. I am not alone. Hundreds of migrants I speak to feel this way. I spend every minute of every day trying to justify my existence, against a wall of blind hatred. It is that hatred that killed Jo Cox. And we all must look into our conscience and answer the question: "Have I contributed"?
I know I have. I have been terrified, unreasonable, rude, hateful and superior on so many occasions to so many people. I have refused to acknowledge opposing points of view. Created an echo-chamber of validation. My mind has been closed and my heart full of antagonism.
That is not to say we are all equal contributors to the toxic atmosphere which surrounds us, however. I am a banged-up car, fuming. There are others who are power stations churning out noxious gasses.
Read more at:https://www.byline.com/column/11/article/1109
It seems there's something about the winner-takes-all, "once in a lifetime" nature of referendums that encourages the worst in political campaigners. But the people who should take the blame for this are not just those who stoop to using the cheapest language and most offensive rhetoric. Also to blame are those on both sides who stand by and let it happen, those who tolerate appalling behaviour from their own, those who turn a blind-eye to the rise of the malignant far right for fear of getting involved.
We all share blame, whether through our action or our inaction.
http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/the-blame-game.html
And this
https://lokithescottishrapper.com/2016/06/17/trigger-warning-taking-responsibility-for-your-part-in-this-divided-society/
Modern political campaigning for you. Perverse and ridiculous.
I will course use that analogy as well.
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.
YouGov = another outlier
I suspect deep down you know this.
I did notice Cameron once again equating Leave with Farage in his Telegraph article. I will get to the voting booth if I have to drag myself by my fingers. The guy is a giant cock.
Next up Marr and Pesto interviews in the morning.
Then QT with Cameron.
Plenty of chances for either side to drop a bollock.
The effect of the campaign on the Tory Party is completely irrelevant to the question of the fairness or otherwise of the vote.
We'll probably be saying next Friday it was never a contest.
Conservatives: 41% Remain, 59% Leave
Labour: 71% Remain, 29% Leave
Lib Dems: 75% Remain, 25% Leave
UKIP: 5% Remain, 95% Leave
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/744284743294922753
Care to explain?
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7
2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever
3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands.
4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Still odd that as many as 5% of UKIP are voting remain mind.
Make it clear this is the last chance to control the borders.
#Remain
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/740909799064371200
Edit: You are clearly trolling.
Down my way (anecdote alert) we are able to discuss the issues reasonably and intelligently without trying to imply those who disagree are mad, bad, or dangerous to know.
It appears that the people conducting the debate are not capable of this and it appears Cameron is at the personal attacks again.
I don't think anyone can say with any certainty what will happen next week. We simply have no idea on the reliability of the polls.
I'm another one who won't be voting Conservative again until Cameron and Osborne are toast.
1. Join the Euro
2. Join Schengen.
3. Lead political integration, starting with changing our criminal system away from trial buy jury to the continental system
Do you think that is remotely possible?
A modest politician (say Theresa May) would have won pretty handily (say by 10 per cent).
A piss-poor set of politicians (Cameron, Osborne) may just about struggle over the line ahead of Leave.
All these referendums are very difficult for the insurgent side to win. They have been lost twice in Quebec and once in Scotland, However, there the Outers had the support of the Quebec National Government or the Scottish Parliament. The Outers here had nothing, and they have given Cameron the fright of his life.
Cameron may still lose the unlosable referendum. Let's see.
However, he has certainly destroyed the Tory party. It is not relevant to the fairness of the vote. The reason why I mention it is it reflects on his competence. He is a poor politician.
But Casino- there has not been any betting market in my memory that has called it as short as 2-1 on and not been right. It is inconceivable, considering the sums involved.
The only elections that were genuinely close were the 2006 election in Italy and 2000 POTUS when the betting markets were ambivalent on who was going to win.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
For Topping
https://www.scribd.com/doc/299847249/0216-EUCO-Conclusions
The main conclusions plus the annexes.
You might like to look at Annex II Article 1 which outlines the procedure to be followed if a non Eurozone member objects to any new legislative acts agreed by the rest of the Council. You will note that there is no means for a non Eurozone member to prevent that legislation passing and the last paragraph
"While taking due account of the possible urgency of the matter and based on the reasons for opposing as indicated under paragraph 1, a request for a discussion in the European Council on the issue, before it returns to the Council for decision, may constitute such an initiative. Any such referral is without prejudice to the normal operation of the legislative procedure of the Union and cannot result in a situation which would amount to allowing a Member State a veto. "
Trust me using evil to gain you short term, only emboldens the evil. And it will come to claim you.
If you want to be a intransigent, stubborn prat, you'll get what you deserve.
But it's your money.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/744289442228215810
No change with the express...
But TSE is PROPERLY winding me up now.
Might need to log off again..