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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s 10/1 on a second EU Referendum being held before July
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s 10/1 on a second EU Referendum being held before July 2017
Ladbrokes have a market up on a second referendum to be held before July 2017 at odds of 10/1.
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A Scottish independence referendum wouldn't count.
I'm just sad as I was wondering if in the event of a Leave win he might be persuaded to stand for the LDs in 2020, just to troll those who like to say that a man who will have been a Tory MP for 50 years is not a Tory.
However, my inner naughty child would love to see the post-Brexit political shenanigans across the London-Berlin-Paris-Brussels axis. It would be like a real life Game of Thrones only with fewer dragons.
France did something similar after their referendum rejecting the EU Constitution. Mr Sarkozy made signing the Lisbon Treaty part of his presidential election platform.
Another referendum next year? Oh. How exciting. :dismal face:
It is not possible for ~ 50 per cent of the population to want to leave (and probably a further 20 per cent to want significant EU reform) without one of the major parties becoming explicitly anti-EU.
There are just too many votes to be gathered in bashing the EU. (And after all, that is basically one of the reasons Cameron got his majority)
I think it will be the Tories that becomes a Leaver party, but it is not out of the question it could be Labour.
Even in 2016 I would have put that threshold at 25 or 26.
...as one minister told The Sunday Times .. “Can we please have no more f****** referendums again. Ever.”
Still, definite improvement, that's the important thing. And I'm expecting to be able to get to the polling station under my own steam (I hope).
Next year the Germans and French have their elections, and I cannot see either of those rolling out a much changed deal for us before those were out of the way.
I could see the possibility of one when the article 50 proposals are finalised, but suspect those will not give us advantageous terms.
So that means the "referendum lock" will be very quickly repealed, followed inevitably by another batch of "integration".
Oh and when we join the Euro that will be without a referendum as well.
This. Is. It.
Conservatives = The EU. Was forever thus.
Now, I rekon the chances are good that when we join the Euro it will be a "Tory" government that brings us to end game... Given it was a Tory government that started it off all those years ago.
F1: race didn't go according to script. Hmm.
There won't be another referendum of that kind. It'd be asking people to reject a deal which whoever negotiated it thought was good for the UK. Given how this one has gone, the politicians will be keen to avoid another.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/19/michael-gove-george-osborne-condemn-nigel-farage-anti-immigration-poster-eu
Farage has now marginalised himself, and the pro-immigration Brexiteers are clearly on the march.
But the Conservatives? They've already shown that they're anti-EU in outward form only. As soon as the EU-scepticism is put to the test, it turns into EU support.
Never mind the little people. Big business, one way or another.
"But I look at my daughter Nancy and think that in only six years she could be starting an apprenticeship."
How I laughed - almost as much as when Ed M. was being interviewed in one of his kitchens.
Unfortunately for us, our leaders are out of touch, terrible liars and don't even bother to conceal their view that we're pretty stupid and, as ever, racist to boot.
Btw, many thanks for the link to the earliest declaring councils as regards the referendum vote. You mentioned 2 or 3 of the contenders incl my own area, Wandsworth, but once again it seems Sunderland look virtually certain to win this race by a country mile.
The big question, from a betting perspective, is what exactly can we take from their result?
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-democrats-dominate-2016-battleground-airwaves-n594676
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/18/petrol-electricity-and-airfares-could-be-taxed-under-radical-pro/
If we Leave then it would be for ever, with the EU in its current form at least. Any country could veto us.
It's when I saw the Sam Cam interview that I really thought LEAVE might do this...
I think it was Tim who pointed out that you know when Dave's in real trouble because he brings out Sam Cam to save his bacon...
Writing the post-race piece now.
That was the point you were making, wasn't it? ;-)
Wasn't planning to back that (I was checking his odds to be top 6 but happened to notice his podium odds seemed long), so glad it came off.
I thought you chaps were keen to leave?
MORE!
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2016.html
Concise version:
Dull, but profitable.
Edited extra bit: incidentally, always appreciate the comments. Interesting to hear what others think of my bets, and what they themselves have been betting.
And are we trying to preserve some grand project where a little pain might be worth it "pour encourager les autres"?
This is SINDYRef revisited where the Nats thought they held all the cards...
He told me the german public are now realising just how important the UK is as a trading partner - 3rd largest export market worth 90 billion a year. They're starting to get very worried.
On the other hand, if it's below 50% for Leave, I'd flip it, and assume a similar likelihood for Remain.
I would point out that local papers' voodoo polls do not have a good record. I remember in the famous battle for Bedfordshire North in 1992, when the local newspaper had the Labour candidate Pat Hall on something like 50%, with the Conservatives on 35% and the Alliance Social and Liberal Democrats on about 10%. The eventual result did not look anything like that.
I'll be at a count I suspect, but will be watching Sunderland, Hartlepool and Newcastle with interest.
If it's heavy one way or another we will at least have a feel of the night.
Is the Euro zone a land of economic strength that can bear the reduction in access to the UK, for £289 billion in exports, or is it riddled with debt, deflation and austerity?
We've never had a stronger hand to play.
If remain get it they'll be intolerable.
We, collectively, cannot have things both ways.
A common complaint about the EU is that is corporatist and heavily influenced by big business. If that is true, they will be heavily incentivized by those big businesses to get a deal made as quickly as possible.
If we believe that the EU is not corporatist, then we have a purely political negotiation, where, for example, France just tells us to fuck off (assuming that by some miracle France has bound and gagged Germany and locked it in a closet somewhere).
In reality, it's likely to be somewhere in between, with individual EU countries seeking sectorial advantage that align with their national interests. That varies wildly. We're Germany's #3 export market behind the US and France. Croatia probably doesn't give a hoot what we do (I haven't checked that assertion for veracity
More seriously, if proper circuits keep being lost and Azerbaijan and its ilk dominate the calendar, more and more people will turn off.
Voodoo polls are voodoo polls. For amusement only. Just thought I would mention it for the sake of amusement.
Wonder who that might be...
The combination of us not knowing exactly what relationship we want with the EU, and each different EU country having different red lines could make the discussions pretty interesting.