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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum: The affluent versus the non-affluent summed

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum: The affluent versus the non-affluent summed up in two Populus polling charts

Populus polling data on the people who are more likely to vote Remain pic.twitter.com/8KjzfawHzP

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,958
    edited June 2016
    Populus are the most interesting pollster in this EURef campaign.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Second!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    FPT for @Richard_Tyndall

    Richard hi glad you're on.

    Thanks for your link the other day.

    Now...

    I have read the annex you referred me to and for all the world it looks as though it states that non-members of the banking union ("at least one member of the Council that does not participate in the banking union") who object to the special treatment that the UK is getting from the deal (Section A = Economic Governance, namely eurozone discrimination and banking union), shall not have a veto ("cannot result in a situation which would amount to allowing a Member State a veto").

    Added: if it was talking about the United Kingdom in this example, why would it not say "the United Kingdom" as it does elsewhere.

    In other words, that annex seems to be aimed at any other non-banking union member of the EU that objects to the deal that the UK has achieved.

    Not the other way round.

    ie nothing I can see in that Annex contradicts the opt outs and protections achieved in the deal.

    I, of course, ANAL.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    As with SINDYRef - those doing best out of the status quo keenest to preserve it, those doing less well - why not change?
  • FPT :

    Casino_Royale said:
    » show previous quotes
    I don't know how much more of this I can take.

    A handful of bookies are now quoting LEAVE at 3.75 ...... that's quite a way in from 4.75 before lunch. Sounds like there's a lot of guesswork going on.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The topline appears to show Educated versus Not...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    As with SINDYRef - those doing best out of the status quo keenest to preserve it, those doing less well - why not change?

    Because they haven't worked out yet just how much worse it could be
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    Those with nothing to lose have nothing to lose by Brexit!

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Anorak, the elderly also have the greatest relative say in general elections.

    Nobody's stopping the young from voting. If they choose not to, it's not legitimate to criticise the elderly for opting to exercise their democratic right. Indeed, it's perverse to chastise those participating in democracy.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Remain are
    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    What are you talking about they can't contribute because of unlimited immigration and have been hit hardest by it also.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited June 2016
    The Wales thing confounds me..
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    Those with nothing to lose have nothing to lose by Brexit!

    They don't have 'nothing'

    Those who aren't well off can get worse off.......
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Both sides have their fair share of groups that are historically unreliable.
  • Betfair's matched Brexit bets now exceed £41 million. That's more than is wagered on two closely fought cricket tests!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2016
    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!

    I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    They are people who have been left behind by globalisation. Either old dogs who don't want to learn new tricks or dogs who never had any tricks. I don't think they are right about the EU, but leaving is a rational choice for them and I think their thinking deserves some understanding.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,014
    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    If pensioners were heavily pro-EU, as they are in many other parts of Europe, we'd hear much less of this argument.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!

    I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...
    You made some fine tunes.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited June 2016
    duplicate
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770

    Betfair's matched Brexit bets now exceed £41 million. That's more than is wagered on two closely fought cricket tests!

    I was reading on my phone, and I had to scroll to see the words that followed "fought".

    For some strange reason, my brain filled it in as "wars".
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    Those with nothing to lose have nothing to lose by Brexit!

    Those who will still be collecting their winter fuel allowance whilst drawing on their final salary pension schemes?
  • Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!

    I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...
    ..... and modest with it.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    FPT :

    Casino_Royale said:
    » show previous quotes
    I don't know how much more of this I can take.

    A handful of bookies are now quoting LEAVE at 3.75 ...... that's quite a way in from 4.75 before lunch. Sounds like there's a lot of guesswork going on.

    And lots of arbing?
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!

    I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...
    You made some fine tunes.
    LOL!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    If pensioners were heavily pro-EU, as they are in many other parts of Europe, we'd hear much less of this argument.
    "If you wish to continue recieving your pension, Mrs Smith, you will need to join the compulsory re-education classes."

    Don't give them any ideas!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MSmithsonPB: LEAVE's continued #ProjectFear response to expert views it doesn't like is losing its potency and making people like Gove look silly.

    Yup
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Afternoon all :)

    A cancelled meeting (well, there's a surprise) as most of the men want to leave early and make sure they are in good time for the football tonight.

    Thumbing through some of the afternoon posts, I'm left with the view REMAIN are playing the psychological card at this late hour. Once again, the self-interested prophets of doom are out and about telling us how the world will end if we have the affront to vote LEAVE on Thursday.

    Everything is now being done to de-motivate the LEAVE vote before Thursday whether it be more warnings of disaster or simply the sneering and jeering of those wedded to either the current leadership of the Conservative Party or wedded to the fear of an alternative leadership team ?

    As I'm not a Conservative, I don't care. The Sun is shining and I'm voting LEAVE on Thursday.

    As someone might have said "It's a new dawn, it's a new day, it's a new start for the UK....and we're feeling good".

    Football tonight - depends which England turns up and to a large extent which Slovakia. hey could frustrate us out of this but an early England goal will calm nerves and force them to come to us. If we win Group B, we'll know our next opponents by the end of tomorrow and we play Saturday late afternoon. If we are runners up, we could have to play Portugal or perhaps Iceland but we wouldn't know that for some while and the game would be next Monday evening.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2016
    @Fenster FPT

    When my grandfather died they had a session of tributes in each of the Commons and the Lords. It was incredibly moving hearing from those who had both opposed and supported him over the years.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Fenster said:

    The Wales thing confounds me..

    Me too - it is not a good sign for "remain" though, as I expect Wales to "leave"...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Whatever the result the psephology will be fascinating. Will Labour's heartlands really revolt to the extent we're expecting? And the absence of 'safe seats' makes everyone feel engaged.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!

    I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...
    What are ur degrees in. If you have one in English literature you can tell us when a politician is waffaling!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    As with SINDYRef - those doing best out of the status quo keenest to preserve it, those doing less well - why not change?

    And yet 3 out of 4 of the top Leavers groups are 55-64, 65+ and retired, also all strong No voting groups.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    The Wales thing confounds me..

    Me too - it is not a good sign for "remain" though, as I expect Wales to "leave"...
    Leanne Wood of Plaid said last week she has been taken aback by the level of support for Leave in Wales
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,397
    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    The Wales thing confounds me..

    Me too - it is not a good sign for "remain" though, as I expect Wales to "leave"...
    Ergo, the National Average is a win for Leave.
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    *Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    stodge - I think England have a variety of attacking options that I don't remember in recent years. Certainly amongst strikers. But Kane and Sterling don't seem to be exciting people and the coach has never been one to make real use of such talent.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,717
    marke09 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    The Wales thing confounds me..

    Me too - it is not a good sign for "remain" though, as I expect Wales to "leave"...
    Leanne Wood of Plaid said last week she has been taken aback by the level of support for Leave in Wales
    It’s all those English retiree immigrants.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    FF43 said:

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    They are people who have been left behind by globalisation. Either old dogs who don't want to learn new tricks or dogs who never had any tricks. I don't think they are right about the EU, but leaving is a rational choice for them and I think their thinking deserves some understanding.
    Most pensioners do not care as much about themselves as they do about the futures of their children and grandchildren. Please take that as a starting point and then think about why the vote as they do.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.

    That'd set the cat among the pigeons.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    JamesP said:

    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    *Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.
    18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnout
    Good for Leave

    ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
    Good for Remain

    I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    'Leanne Wood of Plaid said last week she has been taken aback by the level of support for Leave in Wales '

    And that's what is being admitted to her face!
  • ViceroyViceroy Posts: 128
    I have felt sick and sad all day over this, it is taking its toll. Feeling a bit more optimistic again now though, off out with a friend to do more leafleting for Labour Leave and Vote Leave.

    Toodles!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Fenster said:

    Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.

    That'd set the cat among the pigeons.

    As I said before 24th June is 10 days before 4th July which is 10 days before 14th July.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.

    It's very anecdotal, but I don;t think remain has ABC1 anywhere near as in the bag as they think they have. And that will be the real shock of the campaign.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @MSmithsonPB


    'LEAVE's continued #ProjectFear response to expert views it doesn't like is losing its potency and making people like Gove look silly'


    The same silly billies that told us we would lose 3 million jobs if we didn't join the Euro ?.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770

    FF43 said:

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    They are people who have been left behind by globalisation. Either old dogs who don't want to learn new tricks or dogs who never had any tricks. I don't think they are right about the EU, but leaving is a rational choice for them and I think their thinking deserves some understanding.
    Most pensioners do not care as much about themselves as they do about the futures of their children and grandchildren. Please take that as a starting point and then think about why the vote as they do.
    For the record, when I'm old, I guarantee you that I will no longer be a selfish git.

    Instead, I will be a selfish old git.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Remain's two highest categories are those who have yet to do a day's work, soon followed by those who have done very little and have negligible life experience.

    Ideal targets for conditioning.

    Leave's are those with the greatest experience of the EU, both in terms of timescale and personal impact.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    taffys said:

    I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.

    It's very anecdotal, but I don;t think remain has ABC1 anywhere near as in the bag as they think they have. And that will be the real shock of the campaign.

    UEFA should have arranged the England and Wales games for Thursday.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    Fenster said:

    Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.

    That'd set the cat among the pigeons.

    Not another f*cking bank holiday please.

    I'd vote for any political party that offered to cut it back to two: New Year's day and one in the summer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Fenster said:

    Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.

    That'd set the cat among the pigeons.

    I'd be up for that as it would mean my birthday would be a bank holiday every 7 years :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    taffys said:

    I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.

    It's very anecdotal, but I don;t think remain has ABC1 anywhere near as in the bag as they think they have. And that will be the real shock of the campaign.

    Sitting in Hampstead, and I realise I'm getting a very London-centric view, I'm not sure I agree. It's 29-1 in my office, and I've counted North of 30 Remain posters in my 'hood at the weekend, against zero for Leave.

    I would be shocked if Camden was less than 80:20 for Remain, especially given that even SeanT seems to have got the collywobbles.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    john_zims said:

    The same silly billies that told us we would lose 3 million jobs if we didn't join the Euro ?.

    No, actually.

    That's why Gove looks silly
  • Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!

    I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unusual...</blockquote

    I am not sure that you are so unusual.

    I have 2 degrees and I am voting Leave, my wife works in the NHS and has 2 degrees-and she is also voting Leave

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Fenster said:

    Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.

    That'd set the cat among the pigeons.

    Can't do that - I want the day of the SindyRef to be Union day.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,397
    rcs1000 said:

    Fenster said:

    Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.

    That'd set the cat among the pigeons.

    Not another f*cking bank holiday please.

    I'd vote for any political party that offered to cut it back to two: New Year's day and one in the summer.
    They could call themselves The Popular Party


    Not.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    FF43 said:

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    They are people who have been left behind by globalisation. Either old dogs who don't want to learn new tricks or dogs who never had any tricks. I don't think they are right about the EU, but leaving is a rational choice for them and I think their thinking deserves some understanding.
    Most pensioners do not care as much about themselves as they do about the futures of their children and grandchildren. Please take that as a starting point and then think about why the vote as they do.
    The issue with that is that their children and grandchildren have a different view from them as to where their own interests lie. I don't intend to denigrate older people's viewpoints and I can see it might have come across that I do. It's that the world is a different place from what it was in the seventies and before.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    New Vote Leave poster playing Remain at their own game


    New EU rules on tax could cost each household over £2,600 ─► https://t.co/sVfUAQi1bE

    #VoteLeave https://t.co/LG33aHaHXU
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    rcs1000 said:

    Fenster said:

    Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.

    That'd set the cat among the pigeons.

    Not another f*cking bank holiday please.

    I'd vote for any political party that offered to cut it back to two: New Year's day and one in the summer.
    Thank you, Scrooge....
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    JamesP said:

    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    *Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.
    The university terms are over for undergraduates. The students are either at home or gone travelling. I suspect most will have a vote at home, whether they use it or not is another matter.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited June 2016
    JamesP said:

    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    *Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.

    When do the Uni's break up for summer?

    EDIT: I thought they had - seems Mr LLama agrees.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    If some of the demographic split has been right, Remain are in much worse trouble than anyone thinks.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited June 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    JamesP said:

    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    *Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.
    18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnout
    Good for Leave

    ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
    Good for Remain

    I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
    I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leave
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    I do wonder about the reliability of turnout figures for this age group. Remember that most students can be registered to vote in 2 places but can only vote in 1, which caps the turnout for them at 50%.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!

    I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unusual...
    I have one degree and I am voting Leave - or at least I would if my wife weren't supporting remain and is out of the country with no proxy vote - the things you do for marital harmony. Anyone have Zero or Minus one degree?

    Anyway - more important than the footy is the euro 2016 bridge tournament http://www.eurobridge.org/repository/competitions/16budapest/microsite/RunningScores/Asp/RoundTeamsConditStatClassicMod.asp?qtournid=1210&qshowflag=1 England trouncing Scotland.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016

    JamesP said:

    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    *Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.

    When do the Uni's break up for summer?

    They already have. But turnout will be below 60℅ for the youth I am certain. Since i am a mature student in his first year. They are so disenganged, my houshold is political and my 18 year old sister wont vote.What do others think?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    TudorRose said:

    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    I do wonder about the reliability of turnout figures for this age group. Remember that most students can be registered to vote in 2 places but can only vote in 1, which caps the turnout for them at 50%.
    Correct .
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2016
    nunu said:

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!

    I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...
    What are ur degrees in. If you have one in English literature you can tell us when a politician is waffaling!
    They are, indeed, in English Literature! Moving in university circles, one learns to keep one's Leave tendencies under one's hat, somewhat. From my experience, it is a tremendous blessing that, for all their bluster on politics, the young tend not to bother voting. They can tell you all about the latest music apps on their space phones, but not who the Chancellor is, or who was PM before Tony Blair. Scary really.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    They are people who have been left behind by globalisation. Either old dogs who don't want to learn new tricks or dogs who never had any tricks. I don't think they are right about the EU, but leaving is a rational choice for them and I think their thinking deserves some understanding.
    Most pensioners do not care as much about themselves as they do about the futures of their children and grandchildren. Please take that as a starting point and then think about why the vote as they do.
    The issue with that is that their children and grandchildren have a different view from them as to where their own interests lie. I don't intend to denigrate older people's viewpoints and I can see it might have come across that I do. It's that the world is a different place from what it was in the seventies and before.
    Mr 43, A child may well have a different view on an issue from its parent. That does not however stop the parent from doing what it thinks it is in the best interest of the child, and nor should it.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    As well as wondering where the 45-54 year-olds have got to, I note that the brackets are not exclusive. It's very possible to belong to multiple brackets.

    So a post-graduate-educated 30-year-old Scot, in full time employment in category AB, renting his or her own home privately who went abroad on a summer holiday is damn near certain to be a Remainer, I guess.

    I think it would be useful if they could group these findings in categories (and thus exclusively, so doing it by age, and so forth - doing it by as many as three categories simultaneously would probably be the maximum (eg age/location/socio-economic status would, if each category is exclusive (Age 35-44 in London, C1) be something like 6 x 4 x 10 categories - about as large as plausible, if not larger); if these could have cohort sizing made available as well, it'd be great.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited June 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Fenster said:

    Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.

    That'd set the cat among the pigeons.

    Not another f*cking bank holiday please.

    I'd vote for any political party that offered to cut it back to two: New Year's day and one in the summer.
    If REMAIN lose this, they will reckon their main mistake was not pulling the strings to ensure you were appointed chief of the LEAVE campaign...

    EDITED TO ADD: must be tough for the likes of you, Richard, Max - even on something you are desperate to win (and recognise will be an uphill struggle to), there is no conceivable path to winning on your own terms. Must be like a Maoist reluctantly voting for the Labour devationists.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr Nunu, I can see it being over 60%. I'd guess 55-65% is the likeliest band.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    The stuffing has been knocked out of the Leave campaign, I hate to say it, but it looks over to me. Unless Boris has the performance of a lifetime on Tuesday, I can't see any other result than a comfortable Remain win.
  • rcs1000 said:

    JamesP said:

    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    *Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.
    18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnout
    Good for Leave

    ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
    Good for Remain

    I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
    Which is why of course THAT poster was aired last week.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Sitting in Hampstead, and I realise I'm getting a very London-centric view, I'm not sure I agree. It's 29-1 in my office, and I've counted North of 30 Remain posters in my 'hood at the weekend, against zero for Leave.''

    Indeed, but ABC1 takes many forms. JohnO has posted how shocked he was at the support for Leave in Elmbridge, which is Britain's taxpayer powerhouse.

    I have a feeling when some pollsters think ABC1 they think well paid public sector civil servants - but anyway, we shall see.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    rcs1000 said:

    JamesP said:

    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    *Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.
    18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnout
    Good for Leave

    ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
    Good for Remain

    I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
    I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leave
    Is that assertion based upon polling evidence or sheer prejudice?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    rcs1000 said:

    JamesP said:

    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    *Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.
    18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnout
    Good for Leave

    ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
    Good for Remain

    I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
    I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leave
    You might not accept it, but they are. You may think it irrational, they though should think about threat to their jobs, but most don't appear to care - or they think there's threats to those anyway, so why not express the anger they have toward the EU and the government.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.

    When we gave being a land fit for heroes and became one of a land fit for the bone idle.
  • Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!

    I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unusual...
    I have a degree in Italian and I'm voting to leave!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.

    What's wrong with 23rd June? ;)
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    nunu said:

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!

    I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...
    What are ur degrees in. If you have one in English literature you can tell us when a politician is waffaling!
    They are, indeed, in English Literature! Moving in university circles, one learns to keep one's Leave tendencies under one's hat, somewhat. From my experience, it is a tremendous blessing that, for all their bluster on politics, the young tend not to bother voting. They can tell you all about the latest muisc apps on their space phones, but not who the Chancellor is, or who was PM before Tony Blair. Scary really.
    I agree entirely. I keep my politics well away from my colleagues at work (especially when I have to cross a UCU picket line). My impression is that students are more interested in exam results, football, Glastonbury/festivals/summer holidays in that order at the moment.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JamesP said:

    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    *Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.
    18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnout
    Good for Leave

    ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
    Good for Remain

    I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
    I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leave
    You might not accept it, but they are. You may think it irrational, they though should think about threat to their jobs, but most don't appear to care - or they think there's threats to those anyway, so why not express the anger they have toward the EU and the government.
    We shall see on Thursday who is right .
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    More bloody experts

    @Breakingviews: Brexit could trigger a liquidity migraine. @swahapattanaik https://t.co/9uZQRipF2D https://t.co/ceHEkFXy5K

    Luckily, nobody is listening to them...
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    nunu said:

    JamesP said:

    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    *Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.

    When do the Uni's break up for summer?

    They already have. But turnout will be below 60℅ for the youth I am certain. Since i am a mature student in his first year. They are so disenganged, my houshold is political and my 18 year old sister wont vote.What do others think?
    She should form the apathetic party and campaign for other youngsters not to vote - if she can be bothered.

    My son is doing a conversion course and will definitely vote (Remain). Mind you he actually joined the Liberal Democrats. Hopefully age and real life will teach him wisdom.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Mark Senior - the white non-working class aren't actually that numerous or didn't your government preside over a 'jobs miracle' after all? They are also I suspect (and here I'm probably bringing in my own prejudice) extremely difficult to get to the polling station. I'd be very surprised if they had a high turnout %. I'm also not entirely sure why we have to bring race into it. Are the NWWC much more likely to vote remain?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    There will be very few C1's sitting in Camden and Hampstead unless they are in social housing.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Good afternoon, everybody.

    I'm intrigued by one item in the Leave diagram, nothing to do with the referendum at all.

    The top line @148 is 'No formal education' whilst the line @117 is 'Educated at secondary level'.

    Therefore, presumably, 'No formal education' means people who didn't even go to secondary school.

    Wikipedia says that the school leaving age was raised to 15 [from 14] in 1947 by the Education Act of 1944.

    So does that mean that the whole of the top line is populated by those born before 1932 (74+) plus those who arrived here without education later? Or is there some other wrinkle?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_education_in_England


  • Jason said:

    The stuffing has been knocked out of the Leave campaign, I hate to say it, but it looks over to me. Unless Boris has the performance of a lifetime on Tuesday, I can't see any other result than a comfortable Remain win.

    What makes you think voters are like ice skating judges voting about the campaign. People have had years to decide this one?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770

    rcs1000 said:

    Fenster said:

    Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.

    That'd set the cat among the pigeons.

    Not another f*cking bank holiday please.

    I'd vote for any political party that offered to cut it back to two: New Year's day and one in the summer.
    They could call themselves The Popular Party


    Not.
    It's not clear to me why the government should be in the business of legislating when people work.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    taffys said:

    ''Sitting in Hampstead, and I realise I'm getting a very London-centric view, I'm not sure I agree. It's 29-1 in my office, and I've counted North of 30 Remain posters in my 'hood at the weekend, against zero for Leave.''

    Indeed, but ABC1 takes many forms. JohnO has posted how shocked he was at the support for Leave in Elmbridge, which is Britain's taxpayer powerhouse.

    I have a feeling when some pollsters think ABC1 they think well paid public sector civil servants - but anyway, we shall see.

    I've done several canvassing sessions with Labour In in London - admittedly it's a borough identified as leaning to Remain but the results have been overwhelming - you're looking at more than 70% remain - perhaps 80% assuming the don't knows split 50-50. Leavers are a tiny minority, even in social housing estates.
  • RobD said:

    Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.

    What's wrong with 23rd June? ;)
    Indeed, it's my birthday as well as being very adjacent to the summer Solstice.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    They are people who have been left behind by globalisation. Either old dogs who don't want to learn new tricks or dogs who never had any tricks. I don't think they are right about the EU, but leaving is a rational choice for them and I think their thinking deserves some understanding.
    Most pensioners do not care as much about themselves as they do about the futures of their children and grandchildren. Please take that as a starting point and then think about why the vote as they do.
    The issue with that is that their children and grandchildren have a different view from them as to where their own interests lie. I don't intend to denigrate older people's viewpoints and I can see it might have come across that I do. It's that the world is a different place from what it was in the seventies and before.
    Mr 43, A child may well have a different view on an issue from its parent. That does not however stop the parent from doing what it thinks it is in the best interest of the child, and nor should it.
    I didn't say it does nor that it should. Apart from the fact people have perfectly sensible reasons for making their individual and different choices - as a generalisation I think Leave is a rational choice for older people, as I said at the start.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Scott_P said:

    More bloody experts

    @Breakingviews: Brexit could trigger a liquidity migraine. @swahapattanaik https://t.co/9uZQRipF2D https://t.co/ceHEkFXy5K

    Luckily, nobody is listening to them...

    Did you not see the question time with Dave. This not listening to experts meme is not going to help Remain. People just don't believe them anymore. Not saying its a good thing. Just the way it is.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JamesP said:

    nunu said:

    Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.

    *Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.
    18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnout
    Good for Leave

    ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
    Good for Remain

    I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
    I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leave
    Is that assertion based upon polling evidence or sheer prejudice?
    Yes based on polling evidence . Around 6 weeks ago ( ICM IIRC ) had a poll which showed Leave being favoured by only 2 groups the Unemployed and the Retired . You and several other Leavers on here got quite upset with me when I pointed this out .
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    TudorRose said:

    nunu said:

    Anorak said:

    So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.

    Ain't democracy grand.

    On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!

    I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...
    What are ur degrees in. If you have one in English literature you can tell us when a politician is waffaling!
    They are, indeed, in English Literature! Moving in university circles, one learns to keep one's Leave tendencies under one's hat, somewhat. From my experience, it is a tremendous blessing that, for all their bluster on politics, the young tend not to bother voting. They can tell you all about the latest muisc apps on their space phones, but not who the Chancellor is, or who was PM before Tony Blair. Scary really.
    I agree entirely. I keep my politics well away from my colleagues at work (especially when I have to cross a UCU picket line). My impression is that students are more interested in exam results, football, Glastonbury/festivals/summer holidays in that order at the moment.
    Yes, Glastonbury starts on Wednesday, we are now into (albeit rainy) festival season and students will be doing other things. If the referendum had been early May like a GE, it might have been different.
  • Scott_P said:

    More bloody experts

    @Breakingviews: Brexit could trigger a liquidity migraine. @swahapattanaik https://t.co/9uZQRipF2D https://t.co/ceHEkFXy5K

    Luckily, nobody is listening to them...

    Mainly because remain are too busy dianifying to propagate it?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ftwestminster: Brexiters split into nice and nasty camps https://t.co/26jeLWh7yV
This discussion has been closed.