politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What would David do?
Far too little consideration has yet gone into what the referendum result will mean for British politics, even though it is now just a few days away. If the polls are right – big if – Leave will win. It’s time to consider what that might mean.
I think if he loses the referendum he'll resign as Conservative Party leader on Friday, triggering a leadership content, but he'll stay on as Prime Minister until a chosen successor is found.
Forty one years ago I wasn’t able to vote in the first referendum as I was working in Paris for the OECD, monitoring and forecasting the UK and Irish economies. I had already encountered the Common Market’s deficiencies before we even joined, in a research project on tax harmonisation and lecturing on the Common Market’s agriculture and fishing policies.
Since then I have wanted us out, and that has become stronger with each new development of euro-madness, culminating in the currency union. Now it may come to pass. But these are the worst days. It’s the hope that kills you.
I think if he loses the referendum he'll resign as Conservative Party leader on Friday, triggering a leadership content, but he'll stay on as Prime Minister until a chose successor is found.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Reading through this site 90% of people think Leave will win, yet all bookmakers have leave at 3/1. Very very few people on here predicted a tory majority at the GE hence the bookies were in line with peoples thoughts on here i.e wrong. On the referendum they think massively different (and I am sure they read this site). I am totally lost by it all.
Anecdote: I saw a WWC neighbour in ex-local authority house near me has taken down his England flag today from his flagpole, and put up an EU flag instead. Drove past it on the way home.
I think the party conference is the likely time for the handover. If leave win I don't expect Osborne to be a candidate and I would expect him to stand down then at the latest. Although I believe the consequences of leave are grossly overstated the Chancellor resigning in the first few days would be sub optimal.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Cameron has been brilliant in this campaign, particularly the latter stages. If he has any sense he'll shear the eurosceptics from power, and render the issue to the wilderness for a generation. Gove as DP? No.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Why wouldn't the wealthy support the EU? The status quo has always been the best option for the wealthy.
An excellent piece. If Leave wins the battle shifts to what Brexit actually means. The Leave coalition of folk who want to be Singapore and folk who wished we still ran Singapore will collapse within hours. Noone will waste a good crisis. Within the Conservative party and the UK's deep state the battle will be between those that want to minimise chaos by using the EEA lifejacket very quickly and those that want a Murdochian Singapore option. I've always thought a narrow Remain win was Boris's best chance. It increases the anger of the Conservative membership but definitely risks the immeadiate circumstances. Is an actual Brexit really the time to gamble of Boris who isn't a details man and many Leavers know is a flip flopper ?
I wonder if Boris knows his best chance is a flip flop flip. To use his credibility as the lead Leaver to actually front the EEA wing of the party's bid for the leadership ?
Reading through this site 90% of people think Leave will win, yet all bookmakers have leave at 3/1. Very very few people on here predicted a tory majority at the GE hence the bookies were in line with peoples thoughts on here i.e wrong. On the referendum they think massively different (and I am sure they read this site). I am totally lost by it all.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
I expect there will be an awful lot of endorsements for Remain tomorrow, many that have been planned for months.
I don't disagree with the analysis but I can't for the life of me see why Cameron should stay to sort out a crisis caused by Brexit. There are enough Brexiters to take over the reigns pretty rapidly after Thursday.
I strongly believe that for better or worse Brexiters need to be given their heads if they win. I don't trust Boris or Gove not to try to wriggle out of accountability for the consequences of us leaving if not.
Anecdote: I saw a WWC neighbour in ex-local authority house near me has taken down his England flag today from his flagpole, and put up an EU flag instead. Drove past it on the way home.
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Not a terrible idea. Don't know if it will be sufficient, it might well be worth just having all out war, but I doubt the big guns on either side want that, that's why Cameron will go before he is pushed even if Remain win, he doesn't want the party to split and neither do his opponents.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
I expect there will be an awful lot of endorsements for Remain tomorrow, many that have been planned for months.
Does anybody actually take any notice of these things though?
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Why wouldn't the wealthy support the EU? The status quo has always been the best option for the wealthy.
workers rarely get the chance to poke their bosses in the eye, now 1000 bosses are advertising that theyd like you to protect their bonuses.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Cameron has been brilliant in this campaign, particularly the latter stages. If he has any sense he'll shear the eurosceptics from power, and render the issue to the wilderness for a generation. Gove as DP? No.
Cameron has a majority of 12. There are a lot more Eurosceptics than that
I know what I think is going to happen on Thursday. But I'm so partizan on the subject I fear it clouds my judgement. Also I conceed we may be seeing a paradigm shift.
Anecdote: I saw a WWC neighbour in ex-local authority house near me has taken down his England flag today from his flagpole, and put up an EU flag instead. Drove past it on the way home.
If Leave win, Cameron will resign immediately - probably on Friday; on Saturday at the latest. "No time for a novice" doesn't come into it. It will be no time for a failure, a loser, an incompetent man, a wrong man, an unwanted man, a man who said what he thought was so important for the country and who got rejected. He'll resign and then stay on as caretaker for a few weeks, until the kingmakers have enjoyed their stab party and a new leader takes over: someone who backed Leave and who is in the cabinet (or ~cabinet) - so Johnson or Gove, more likely Gove.
Anecdote: I saw a WWC neighbour in ex-local authority house near me has taken down his England flag today from his flagpole, and put up an EU flag instead. Drove past it on the way home.
Terrible omen. Feel sick.
That is quite possibly the most far out anecdote I've yet seen, and bear in mind like the SIndyRef everything is apparently good for a side according to some of their supporters.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
I expect there will be an awful lot of endorsements for Remain tomorrow, many that have been planned for months.
Does anybody actually take any notice of these things though?
I do.
I was reading the paper in my dentist this am and saw a Remain advert from Branson.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Cameron has been brilliant in this campaign, particularly the latter stages. If he has any sense he'll shear the eurosceptics from power, and render the issue to the wilderness for a generation. Gove as DP? No.
People other than tyson and Roge talking up Cameron - thought he must in trouble, but not that much trouble....
Anecdote: I saw a WWC neighbour in ex-local authority house near me has taken down his England flag today from his flagpole, and put up an EU flag instead. Drove past it on the way home.
Terrible omen. Feel sick.
He's making a point - and it isn't that he supports the EU.
Reading through this site 90% of people think Leave will win, yet all bookmakers have leave at 3/1. Very very few people on here predicted a tory majority at the GE hence the bookies were in line with peoples thoughts on here i.e wrong. On the referendum they think massively different (and I am sure they read this site). I am totally lost by it all.
An excellent piece. If Leave wins the battle shifts to what Brexit actually means. The Leave coalition of folk who want to be Singapore and folk who wished we still ran Singapore will collapse within hours. Noone will waste a good crisis. Within the Conservative party and the UK's deep state the battle will be between those that want to minimise chaos by using the EEA lifejacket very quickly and those that want a Murdochian Singapore option. I've always thought a narrow Remain win was Boris's best chance. It increases the anger of the Conservative membership but definitely risks the immeadiate circumstances. Is an actual Brexit really the time to gamble of Boris who isn't a details man and many Leavers know is a flip flopper ?
I wonder if Boris knows his best chance is a flip flop flip. To use his credibility as the lead Leaver to actually front the EEA wing of the party's bid for the leadership ?
Agree 100%. A leave vote brings the big players huge challenges against a background of likely chaos. Surely both Farage and Boris are praying for a narrow Remain win...
Reading through this site 90% of people think Leave will win, yet all bookmakers have leave at 3/1. Very very few people on here predicted a tory majority at the GE hence the bookies were in line with peoples thoughts on here i.e wrong. On the referendum they think massively different (and I am sure they read this site). I am totally lost by it all.
Reading through this site 90% of people think Leave will win, yet all bookmakers have leave at 3/1. Very very few people on here predicted a tory majority at the GE hence the bookies were in line with peoples thoughts on here i.e wrong. On the referendum they think massively different (and I am sure they read this site). I am totally lost by it all.
Reading through this site 90% of people think Leave will win, yet all bookmakers have leave at 3/1. Very very few people on here predicted a tory majority at the GE hence the bookies were in line with peoples thoughts on here i.e wrong. On the referendum they think massively different (and I am sure they read this site). I am totally lost by it all.
I don't think Leave will win.
I think it will be close, very close, with Remain winning by between 0% - 2%. Hence my favouring Ladbrokes' bet of the winning margin being <1% either way, on offer at 16/1. DYOR.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Cameron has been brilliant in this campaign, particularly the latter stages. If he has any sense he'll shear the eurosceptics from power, and render the issue to the wilderness for a generation. Gove as DP? No.
People other than tyson and Roge talking up Cameron - thought he must in trouble, but not that much trouble....
If Cameron resigns on Friday, within a year people will realise what a fantastic PM he has been. Boris or Gove as PM, my God!!!!! Cameron is by far and away the tories greatest asset.
Can I just send heart felt sympathies and wish all the luck in the world to those playing beer games and who've drawn "take back control" in the sweep.
Reading through this site 90% of people think Leave will win, yet all bookmakers have leave at 3/1. Very very few people on here predicted a tory majority at the GE hence the bookies were in line with peoples thoughts on here i.e wrong. On the referendum they think massively different (and I am sure they read this site). I am totally lost by it all.
Anecdote: I saw a WWC neighbour in ex-local authority house near me has taken down his England flag today from his flagpole, and put up an EU flag instead. Drove past it on the way home.
Terrible omen. Feel sick.
Visible EU flags drive votes for Leave, not Remain.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Cameron has been brilliant in this campaign, particularly the latter stages. If he has any sense he'll shear the eurosceptics from power, and render the issue to the wilderness for a generation. Gove as DP? No.
Mr Meeks where do you get the idea that many Leave Tories remain well disposed to Cameron? That sentiment is not borne out by my experience of Tory leavers or by the Tory leavers on here.
Anecdote: I saw a WWC neighbour in ex-local authority house near me has taken down his England flag today from his flagpole, and put up an EU flag instead. Drove past it on the way home.
Terrible omen. Feel sick.
The guy owns an EU flag??! Mentalist.
That's what I thought.
Thing is: this guy normally always flys England and Union flags. And I leafletted his house thinking he was a dead cert for Leave.
Can I just send heart felt sympathies and wish all the luck in the world to those playing beer games and who've drawn "take back control" in the sweep.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Cameron has been brilliant in this campaign, particularly the latter stages. If he has any sense he'll shear the eurosceptics from power, and render the issue to the wilderness for a generation. Gove as DP? No.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
I expect there will be an awful lot of endorsements for Remain tomorrow, many that have been planned for months.
Does anybody actually take any notice of these things though?
I do.
I was reading the paper in my dentist this am and saw a Remain advert from Branson.
It just made me more determined to vote Leave.
One thing worth noting is that if all these celebrity endorsements that focus groups say might shift their vote actually did shift their vote, you'd expect to see the polls move each time on some level.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
I expect there will be an awful lot of endorsements for Remain tomorrow, many that have been planned for months.
Does anybody actually take any notice of these things though?
I do.
I was reading the paper in my dentist this am and saw a Remain advert from Branson.
It just made me more determined to vote Leave.
Thank Goodness for that Mr. Brooke. I read this from you on the previous thread:
".... I even occasionally find myself wobbling..."
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Cameron has been brilliant in this campaign, particularly the latter stages. If he has any sense he'll shear the eurosceptics from power, and render the issue to the wilderness for a generation. Gove as DP? No.
Cameron has a majority of 12. There are a lot more Eurosceptics than that
Cameron will not be in a position to neuter the Eurosceptics. Theresa May or Boris Johnson might.
I don't think he will resign or be forced to resign in the event of Brexit. Johnson and Gove have both said they want him to remain in post. I'm sure he will want to shape the new settlement.
I suspect there will be an urgent meeting of heads of government followed by some new concessions. In the meantime the markets will have tanked, key HQs moved overseas and big regrets all round. A new referendum in 14 months time will produce a 70 percent yes vote. That was the Irish experience in 2008/9.
Mr Meeks where do you get the idea that many Leave Tories remain well disposed to Cameron? That sentiment is not borne out by my experience of Tory leavers or by the Tory leavers on here.
I imagine it's because Gove and other senior Leaver Tories have said things like Cameron needs to stay on? I think in Boris's case at least that's playing nice to Remainers as he thinks he's going to win, rather than genuine though.
Reading through this site 90% of people think Leave will win, yet all bookmakers have leave at 3/1. Very very few people on here predicted a tory majority at the GE hence the bookies were in line with peoples thoughts on here i.e wrong. On the referendum they think massively different (and I am sure they read this site). I am totally lost by it all.
I don't think Leave will win.
Yes you do, thats why you felt sick earlier
Err.. No. It was because I realised we won't.
Because of one flag?
Mr Royale has been generally pessimistic about Leave's chances.
Personally I cannot get past that Remain are relying on young people, and probably need strong labour areas to be overwhelmingly remain, and the latter seems unlikely and the former are not something you can rely on.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Cameron has been brilliant in this campaign, particularly the latter stages. If he has any sense he'll shear the eurosceptics from power, and render the issue to the wilderness for a generation. Gove as DP? No.
People other than tyson and Roge talking up Cameron - thought he must in trouble, but not that much trouble....
If Cameron resigns on Friday, within a year people will realise what a fantastic PM he has been. Boris or Gove as PM, my God!!!!! Cameron is by far and away the tories greatest asset.
No. Cameron was their best asset. Was.
In politics, forever is about 10 years. Cameron's time is up, remain or leave. He knows it.
The Tory party -- together with their new supporters Tyson and Jobabob -- must look for the next Middle-of-the-Roader.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
I expect there will be an awful lot of endorsements for Remain tomorrow, many that have been planned for months.
Does anybody actually take any notice of these things though?
I do.
I was reading the paper in my dentist this am and saw a Remain advert from Branson.
I'm not sure DC will go immediately. I don't think the Tories are as divided as the media is making out. I still think Cameron and Gove, for instance, will be political friends and allies.
Cameron will go but I think Gove, Boris and IDS, the leading Brexiteers, will be smart enough to be magnanimous in victory and allowa sensible timetable for departure that doesn't leave the Tory party divided.
I suspect Cameron will be disappointed but not bitter..I think he'd blame himself rather than others. George Osborne would be the big loser, and given that him abd IDS are said to have the one really testy relationship among the Tory hierarchy, I guess he'd have to leave the cabinet too.
Anecdote: I saw a WWC neighbour in ex-local authority house near me has taken down his England flag today from his flagpole, and put up an EU flag instead. Drove past it on the way home.
Terrible omen. Feel sick.
The guy owns an EU flag??! Mentalist.
That's what I thought.
Thing is: this guy normally always flys England and Union flags. And I leafletted his house thinking he was a dead cert for Leave.
It's like a personal betrayal.
You should ask him. Does sound like he's making a point to someone, possibly a family member or neighbour.
I don't think he will resign or be forced to resign in the event of Brexit. Johnson and Gove have both said they want him to remain in post. I'm sure he will want to shape the new settlement.
I suspect there will be an urgent meeting of heads of government followed by some new concessions. In the meantime the markets will have tanked, key HQs moved overseas and big regrets all round. A new referendum in 14 months time will produce a 70 percent yes vote. That was the Irish experience in 2008/9.
There will be no new referendum before a general election - what Tory government could bring forward the necessary legislation without being brought down?
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
I expect there will be an awful lot of endorsements for Remain tomorrow, many that have been planned for months.
Does anybody actually take any notice of these things though?
I do.
I was reading the paper in my dentist this am and saw a Remain advert from Branson.
If Leave win, Cameron will resign immediately - probably on Friday; on Saturday at the latest. "No time for a novice" doesn't come into it. It will be no time for a failure, a loser, an incompetent man, a wrong man, an unwanted man, a man who said what he thought was so important for the country and who got rejected. He'll resign and then stay on as caretaker for a few weeks, until the kingmakers have enjoyed their stab party and a new leader takes over: someone who backed Leave and who is in the cabinet (or ~cabinet) - so Johnson or Gove, more likely Gove.
I don't think he will resign or be forced to resign in the event of Brexit. Johnson and Gove have both said they want him to remain in post. I'm sure he will want to shape the new settlement.
I suspect there will be an urgent meeting of heads of government followed by some new concessions. In the meantime the markets will have tanked, key HQs moved overseas and big regrets all round. A new referendum in 14 months time will produce a 70 percent yes vote. That was the Irish experience in 2008/9.
There will be no new referendum before a general election - what Tory government could bring forward the necessary legislation without being brought down?
This Tory government could with support from Labour and the SNP.
Britain after Brexit will be like Ireland in 1922, minus the shooting. Economic disruption, elites arguing with each other about how to deal with the bigger power and possible territorial breakaways.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Cameron has been brilliant in this campaign, particularly the latter stages. If he has any sense he'll shear the eurosceptics from power, and render the issue to the wilderness for a generation. Gove as DP? No.
If as seems likely that at least 40% of the electorate vote to Leave the EU I am not sure it within any PM's power to consign the issue into the wilderness.
I think the party conference is the likely time for the handover. If leave win I don't expect Osborne to be a candidate and I would expect him to stand down then at the latest. Although I believe the consequences of leave are grossly overstated the Chancellor resigning in the first few days would be sub optimal.
I have always held the Chancellor in the highest regard but if Leave wins then him being reshuffled on Friday before the markets open may be almost too late. He has made his views on the British economy if we Leave abundantly clear and he'd have no post-Leave credibility left.
I have always held the Chancellor in the highest regard but if Leave wins then him being reshuffled on Friday before the markets open may be almost too late.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Nobody gives a shit.
That is true.
This is a referendum on immigration.
It did not have to be. We could have had a positive Remain case about the UK building a stronger Europe. Instead we got lecturing from important people about the economic risks and tugging at people's grief. While Remain will win this battle on unethical grounds, Leave will win the war (unless the Conservatives elect someone who double crosses then).
I think the party conference is the likely time for the handover. If leave win I don't expect Osborne to be a candidate and I would expect him to stand down then at the latest. Although I believe the consequences of leave are grossly overstated the Chancellor resigning in the first few days would be sub optimal.
I have always held the Chancellor in the highest regard but if Leave wins then him being reshuffled on Friday before the markets open may be almost too late. He has made his views on the British economy if we Leave abundantly clear and he'd have no post-Leave credibility left.
He has no credibility if we stay. His head on platter will be the price demanded by leavers, for a "coming together" He simply could not get legislation through so thoroughly has he pissed everyone off.
I think middle class will break heavily for remain, and very high turnout - the B group (there will be more people in the A group willing to vote leave as they are less worried about short term economic risks or may gain more from Brexit than typical PAYE professionals)
The working class will indeed break for Brexit but I don't think turnout will be massively up from GE. Once you make a habit of not voting it's hard to get out of.
Youth will turnout for remain at a slightly higher level than GE, cancelling out the working class effect.
Scots turnout strong remain but low turnout.
Oldies will stick with leave but may see a swing back to status quo dampening the leave margin (risk averse lends is going to kick in)
The key group is women, I think women will win it for remain. Risk averse and more likely to focus on details like economic risk, house prices, etc. anecdote alert: My mum is very typical Tory voter - right wing, wants low taxes, voted for thatcher. She's voting remain because she does not either love nor hate the EU and doesn't want to take the risk. My father is the same profile but wants to take the risk regardless for immigration and sovereignty. Women will swing it for remain, 52-48.
.......... I suspect there will be an urgent meeting of heads of government followed by some new concessions. In the meantime the markets will have tanked, key HQs moved overseas and big regrets all round. A new referendum in 14 months time will produce a 70 percent yes vote. That was the Irish experience in 2008/9.
" key HQs moved overseas" wtf?
Why? Nothing will move in 2016! You clearly have no understanding of how long these things take.
When it becomes clear, within 2 weeks of the vote, that the world will in fact not fall in, your main reason for DC staying will disappear, and so will he.
I think the party conference is the likely time for the handover. If leave win I don't expect Osborne to be a candidate and I would expect him to stand down then at the latest. Although I believe the consequences of leave are grossly overstated the Chancellor resigning in the first few days would be sub optimal.
I have always held the Chancellor in the highest regard but if Leave wins then him being reshuffled on Friday before the markets open may be almost too late. He has made his views on the British economy if we Leave abundantly clear and he'd have no post-Leave credibility left.
Yes I can see that argument and I am also a fan. Gove is the obvious replacement. All good things come to an end but I will be sad to see the end of the Cameron and Osborne show. They brought the Tories back from the depths to the natural party of government again.
Boy it's hard to argue in favour of EU regulations. Always easier to just rail against. I may not be for Remain, but I recognise their job is a tough one for anyone.
In all honesty, I've not actually seen much of Davidson in reality, only the ecstatic reactions of PB tories - at first glance, she does seem quite naturally talented.
Reading through this site 90% of people think Leave will win, yet all bookmakers have leave at 3/1. Very very few people on here predicted a tory majority at the GE hence the bookies were in line with peoples thoughts on here i.e wrong. On the referendum they think massively different (and I am sure they read this site). I am totally lost by it all.
This is a betting website, presumably people come here because they are interested in betting on politics. Have you never seen a favourite beaten before? bookmakers have never been known to give away money, if any event is a certainty, they would take no bets on it. You can still back Remain at 2/7 so there is still doubt over the result, my feeling is that some big players have been betting with their hearts instead of their heads and the value lies with Leave. Look at the polls, the trend has been towards Leave for some time except for a wobble after the murder in Yorkshire (which probably wouldn't have translated into actual votes) My gut feeling is that the Remain vote is soft, the ludicrous scare stories fool very few people and surely there can't be anyone who is actually a fan of the EU (apart from people who work there) 3/1 Leave is good value and you can hedge it by backing the FTSE to rise on Friday, if Leave win, you collect from the bookies and if you buy actual shares, they'll recover in time anyway, if Remain does win, you collect on the stockmarket next week. That's what I'm doing, I'm also voting Leave and quite confident of Leave winning.
I think middle class will break heavily for remain, and very high turnout - the B group (there will be more people in the A group willing to vote leave as they are less worried about short term economic risks or may gain more from Brexit than typical PAYE professionals)
The working class will indeed break for Brexit but I don't think turnout will be massively up from GE. Once you make a habit of not voting it's hard to get out of.
Youth will turnout for remain at a slightly higher level than GE, cancelling out the working class effect.
Scots turnout strong remain but low turnout.
Oldies will stick with leave but may see a swing back to status quo dampening the leave margin (risk averse lends is going to kick in)
The key group is women, I think women will win it for remain. Risk averse and more likely to focus on details like economic risk, house prices, etc. anecdote alert: My mum is very typical Tory voter - right wing, wants low taxes, voted for thatcher. She's voting remain because she does not either love nor hate the EU and doesn't want to take the risk. My father is the same profile but wants to take the risk regardless for immigration and sovereignty. Women will swing it for remain, 52-48.
Tend to agree. The polls suggest that pensioners are the strongest supporters of voting for radical change. That would be a dramatic break from their traditional role as risk-averse defenders of the status quo. Of all the demographics I would expect a shift back to remain amongst retired people before Thursday.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
I expect there will be an awful lot of endorsements for Remain tomorrow, many that have been planned for months.
Does anybody actually take any notice of these things though?
I do.
I was reading the paper in my dentist this am and saw a Remain advert from Branson.
It just made me more determined to vote Leave.
Thank Goodness for that Mr. Brooke. I read this from you on the previous thread:
".... I even occasionally find myself wobbling..."
And I was quite worried.
He was just talking about @malcolmg 's offer of a third bowl of turnip mash
I have always held the Chancellor in the highest regard but if Leave wins then him being reshuffled on Friday before the markets open may be almost too late.
How will we calm the markets?
Sack the chancellor.
Awesome.
How will we calm the markets?
Install a Chancellor who is full of confidence about Britain's economic future.
Keeping a Chancellor who is basically saying "the UK is doomed" basically means that you do indeed think the UK is doomed.
Comments
I think if he loses the referendum he'll resign as Conservative Party leader on Friday, triggering a leadership content, but he'll stay on as Prime Minister until a chosen successor is found.
Since then I have wanted us out, and that has become stronger with each new development of euro-madness, culminating in the currency union. Now it may come to pass. But these are the worst days. It’s the hope that kills you.
Oh and late She's my idol in that regard.
Did you mean fireworks or the trousers worn by beardy elderly libdem remainers in the audience?
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Terrible omen. Feel sick.
I wonder if Boris knows his best chance is a flip flop flip. To use his credibility as the lead Leaver to actually front the EEA wing of the party's bid for the leadership ?
I strongly believe that for better or worse Brexiters need to be given their heads if they win. I don't trust Boris or Gove not to try to wriggle out of accountability for the consequences of us leaving if not.
Clueless.
I was reading the paper in my dentist this am and saw a Remain advert from Branson.
It just made me more determined to vote Leave.
DYOR.
Thing is: this guy normally always flys England and Union flags. And I leafletted his house thinking he was a dead cert for Leave.
It's like a personal betrayal.
This is a referendum on immigration.
But they don't.
".... I even occasionally find myself wobbling..."
And I was quite worried.
If remain win ditto the other way round.
Surely that is what drives the odds. Not the bookies guess as to what will happen on Thursday night?
I suspect there will be an urgent meeting of heads of government followed by some new concessions. In the meantime the markets will have tanked, key HQs moved overseas and big regrets all round. A new referendum in 14 months time will produce a 70 percent yes vote. That was the Irish experience in 2008/9.
Personally I cannot get past that Remain are relying on young people, and probably need strong labour areas to be overwhelmingly remain, and the latter seems unlikely and the former are not something you can rely on.
Got to be a reasonable bet for the final at least.
In politics, forever is about 10 years. Cameron's time is up, remain or leave. He knows it.
The Tory party -- together with their new supporters Tyson and Jobabob -- must look for the next Middle-of-the-Roader.
Cameron will go but I think Gove, Boris and IDS, the leading Brexiteers, will be smart enough to be magnanimous in victory and allowa sensible timetable for departure that doesn't leave the Tory party divided.
I suspect Cameron will be disappointed but not bitter..I think he'd blame himself rather than others. George Osborne would be the big loser, and given that him abd IDS are said to have the one really testy relationship among the Tory hierarchy, I guess he'd have to leave the cabinet too.
Does sound like he's making a point to someone, possibly a family member or neighbour.
Sack the chancellor.
Awesome.
He simply could not get legislation through so thoroughly has he pissed everyone off.
The working class will indeed break for Brexit but I don't think turnout will be massively up from GE. Once you make a habit of not voting it's hard to get out of.
Youth will turnout for remain at a slightly higher level than GE, cancelling out the working class effect.
Scots turnout strong remain but low turnout.
Oldies will stick with leave but may see a swing back to status quo dampening the leave margin (risk averse lends is going to kick in)
The key group is women, I think women will win it for remain. Risk averse and more likely to focus on details like economic risk, house prices, etc. anecdote alert: My mum is very typical Tory voter - right wing, wants low taxes, voted for thatcher. She's voting remain because she does not either love nor hate the EU and doesn't want to take the risk. My father is the same profile but wants to take the risk regardless for immigration and sovereignty. Women will swing it for remain, 52-48.
Why? Nothing will move in 2016! You clearly have no understanding of how long these things take.
Its a view!
In all honesty, I've not actually seen much of Davidson in reality, only the ecstatic reactions of PB tories - at first glance, she does seem quite naturally talented.
CBeebies made that video didn't they?
Have you never seen a favourite beaten before? bookmakers have never been known to give away money, if any event is a certainty, they would take no bets on it.
You can still back Remain at 2/7 so there is still doubt over the result, my feeling is that some big players have been betting with their hearts instead of their heads and the value lies with Leave.
Look at the polls, the trend has been towards Leave for some time except for a wobble after the murder in Yorkshire (which probably wouldn't have translated into actual votes)
My gut feeling is that the Remain vote is soft, the ludicrous scare stories fool very few people and surely there can't be anyone who is actually a fan of the EU (apart from people who work there)
3/1 Leave is good value and you can hedge it by backing the FTSE to rise on Friday, if Leave win, you collect from the bookies and if you buy actual shares, they'll recover in time anyway, if Remain does win, you collect on the stockmarket next week.
That's what I'm doing, I'm also voting Leave and quite confident of Leave winning.
Oh lord
Install a Chancellor who is full of confidence about Britain's economic future.
Keeping a Chancellor who is basically saying "the UK is doomed" basically means that you do indeed think the UK is doomed.
It would be very messy indeed to have another PM just for 3 months.