Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The online polls all have LEAVE ahead

SystemSystem Posts: 11,017
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The online polls all have LEAVE ahead

Only a few hours to go and two more online polls, Opinium and TNS, are reporting LEAVE leads. This means that the latest surveys from all the online pollsters covering the referendum now have leads for LEAVE.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • Options
    First .... again!
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited June 2016
    2nd like Boris...

    God knows where Farage will come. Perhaps the Leave campaign have finally realised...

    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=father+jack+gobshite+on+the+telly&&view=detail&mid=600A643E950CD8C1E3CB600A643E950CD8C1E3CB&FORM=VRDGAR
  • Options
    LEAVE's odds lengthening again - back out to 3.75 (11/4) with several bookies.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,814
    Rather exciting isn't it? :smiley:
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    LEAVE's odds lengthening again - back out to 3.75 (11/4) with several bookies.

    Guessing more insider trading on the News at 10 poll.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Glorious seventh!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,317

    LEAVE's odds lengthening again - back out to 3.75 (11/4) with several bookies.

    Remain is the new Rubio.

    (maybe)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    PlatoSaid said:

    RobD said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Swedish MEP praying for a domino effect if Britain Leaves...

    OK then, we may start EU-II...

    British Values, British Law. Who's in?

    You're giving me the horn.

    The UK genuinely leading Europe? Who'd vote for that?
    Just imagine the scenes.. the Queen being crowned Empress of Europe in the new capital of the European Community - London :D
    Imagine the scenes if we leave - crowds pulling down/setting fire to This Was Paid For By The EU signs :smiley:
    I had to cancel a meeting to do with the receipt of EU finding that had been scheduled for 24 June. Most annoying.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Robert Peston been seen in any bookies this evening?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    SeanT said:
    Has anyone checked OGH's twitter..........*innocent face*
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    RobD said:

    SeanT said:
    Has anyone checked OGH's twitter..........*innocent face*
    Short the pound :D
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    RobD said:

    Glorious seventh!

    We call coming seventh 'doing a LD'.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,317
    kle4 said:

    It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.

    If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)

    Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.

    If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
  • Options
    El_DaveEl_Dave Posts: 145
    I love that BMG poll. 10 point lead for Leave AND a 7 point lead for Remain. Top shelf.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    FPT

    Jeez, disappear for two hours to find SIX PAGES of new posts. Is anyone with a job actually keeping up with PB for the last week?

    On the subject of the plane from earlier, it was definitely a twin engined plane, and will have been under ATC command flying directly above the river. They would have had to get lots of permissions for the flight, and one needs a commercial licence for banner towing. There's not a cat in hell's chance they just decided to fly over a crowd at a rally, messing around really isn't tolerated by the CAA (Civil Aviation Authority, or Campaign Against Aviation as anyone who's ever dealt with them will attest!).
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917

    kle4 said:

    It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.

    If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)

    Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.

    If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
    After Sunderland and Wandsworth

    WE WILL KNOW !
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.

    If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)

    Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.

    If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
    After Sunderland and Wandsworth

    WE WILL KNOW !
    What time are they?
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.

    Although there are quite a few Brexit poster here that I quite like, quirky and charming and willing to engage, there are some obsessive, blinkered, narrow minded and utterly repulsive types (you know who you are) that I will take a great deal of pleasure in their misery come Friday.
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited June 2016
    Could these betting shits be anything to do with Fargle pulling out?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    kle4 said:

    It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.

    If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)

    Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
    Sounds plausible - they'll be a reaction that even if the stupids have gone more for Leave than thought, the Remain areas will be stronger for Remain than thought.

    Sounds like opportunity time. But I'll still be counting - got to earn that extra £150
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    LEAVE's odds lengthening again - back out to 3.75 (11/4) with several bookies.

    Guessing more insider trading on the News at 10 poll.
    No - probably people with money trying to bet on a certainty (based on their own narrow social grouping) after having had their chateaubriand, eton mess and champagne dinners - washed down with Pimms - in other words EU bureaucrats.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,268
    FPT

    @SeanT That's why I keep my political thoughts for here. That way I have no need to feel abashed or contrite.

    Most of my friends and family have no real idea of my parallel existence here. Just as well all round, I'd say.

    When I last met up with you and Mike and the others for the last PB pub meet, I told my mum I was meeting a bunch of friends at a Japanese restaurant near Liverpool Street.

    So, when I finally left The Shooting Star, I turned left into Bishopsgate and called at Wasabi to pick up a nice Tofu Curry :lol:
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Glorious seventh!

    We call coming seventh 'doing a LD'.
    Noted for future threads.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,317
    Where's Trump?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280

    kle4 said:

    It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.

    If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)

    Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.

    If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
    The polls do not include Northen Ireland, Gibraltar and the expats as far as I know. If so will that make a difference
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    kle4 said:

    It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.

    If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)

    Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.

    If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
    The polls do not include Northen Ireland, Gibraltar and the expats as far as I know. If so will that make a difference
    some do. Opinium does for example.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,814
    tyson said:

    It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.

    Although there are quite a few Brexit poster here that I quite like, quirky and charming and willing to engage, there are some obsessive, blinkered, narrow minded and utterly repulsive types (you know who you are) that I will take a great deal of pleasure in their misery come Friday.

    LOL! That's fighting talk! :smiley:
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Farage absented himself for *family reasons* according to Standard journo
  • Options
    theakestheakes Posts: 842
    The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
    Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means
  • Options
    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    kle4 said:

    It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.

    Not sure. Scotland and particularly Quebec suggest otherwise. Maybe. Who knows!!
  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    A message from the Conservative party:
    "Dear Member
    There will be a Vigil in memory of Jo Cox, the M.P. who was so tragically killed last week. It is being organised by St. Mary`s Church and will be at 1.p.m. in the Market Square, Stafford tomorrow (Thursday) – a week to both the time and date since she died. If any of you are in Stafford you might like to join the Vigil."
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,268
    24 hours and 90 minutes to save the EU project Dave!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,317
    General Boles foretold, and it was true:

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/743359287825731584
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    A message from the Conservative party:
    "Dear Member
    There will be a Vigil in memory of Jo Cox, the M.P. who was so tragically killed last week. It is being organised by St. Mary`s Church and will be at 1.p.m. in the Market Square, Stafford tomorrow (Thursday) – a week to both the time and date since she died. If any of you are in Stafford you might like to join the Vigil."

    Surely not on polling day?
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited June 2016

    Could these betting shits be anything to do with Fargle pulling out?

    First if it is 'family reasons', I want to say I hope it's nothing unfortunate health-wise for any of his family..

    It is however an unfortunate development for his side as inevitably we now wonder why and if there's 'political' reasons of some form and all sorts of speculation will surely arise as to the motives.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
    Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means

    It means it's crap :p Hyped polls always are.
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Where's Trump?

    Is he still coming tomorrow?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    Where's Trump?

    Coming on Friday.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    DanSmith said:

    kle4 said:

    It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.

    If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)

    Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.

    If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
    The polls do not include Northen Ireland, Gibraltar and the expats as far as I know. If so will that make a difference
    some do. Opinium does for example.
    Confusing but does it matter, only 32 hours to make them all redundant
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Have a feeling "the experts" who are calling this for Remain have it wrong. No wonder people don't believe them.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,317

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
    Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means

    I'm guessing big Remain lead then given the betting?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    are we using the right metric from the bookies though.

    If the average remainer is betting twice the value of the average leaver and the remainers are the rich ones wouldnt the individual number of bets on each side be a better comparison since one side cant afford to bet as much as the other ?

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,268
    Perhaps for the last time:

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/725339057669165058
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    General Boles foretold, and it was true:

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/743359287825731584

    Crouching tiger, hidden Juncker?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    kle4 said:

    It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.

    If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)

    Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.

    If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
    @Casino_Royale win or lose you've been one of the PB heroes of this campaign. Totally blow away the caricatures of the Leave supporter. I have found you conscientious and consistent, despite putting up with more than your fair share of abuse.

    With the fence still annoying rammed up my backside tonight, if I do jump to leave, you will have played a big part in that.
  • Options
    DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    The general direction has been towards Leave both online and on phone, apart from a noticeable wobble in the aftermath of the murder of Jo Cox.
    Some Remaindermen are pinning their hopes on people swaying back to the status quo in the voting booth.
    My personal opinion is that the Remain vote is soft among traditional Labour voters, not the Guardianistas or Twitterers but normal people who disproportionally won't turnout.
    I see turnout of around 66% and 51% Leave.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,413
    Charles said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    On polling days, I usually miss all the political coverage. This time I'm looking forward to it.

    And urgh, just looked at The Times for tomorrow - Aaronovitch is comparing Leavers to Enoch Powell.

    I'll skip straight to the comments - they'll be fun.

    Matt d'Ancona doing the same in the Standard. Must be the new line
    Farage not off-putting enough?
  • Options

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
    Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means

    The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.

    Methinks this is good for leave
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Perhaps for the last time:

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/725339057669165058


    What do you mean: last time?

    After we Brexit, that will be our new logo.

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,317
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.

    If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)

    Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.

    If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
    @Casino_Royale win or lose you've been one of the PB heroes of this campaign. Totally blow away the caricatures of the Leave supporter. I have found you conscientious and consistent, despite putting up with more than your fair share of abuse.

    With the fence still annoying rammed up my backside tonight, if I do jump to leave, you will have played a big part in that.
    Aww, cheers mate. I am genuinely touched.

    Really kind of you to say that.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    tyson said:

    It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.

    Honestly, the more Leave look like winning the more nervous I become, as it transfers my analysis of the best decision from abstract to reality. I cannot hide from the consequences like in a GE, where I know the result in my constituency 5 years in advance.

    I said this morning it came down to whether I think the price of leaving is significant enough to outweigh being stuck in an organisation that is heading in a direction we don't like and which is not going to change (with the negative effects for them and us that would entail), and that's still the case.

    I've also been trying to apply the Wollaston test - how would I feel, truly feel, if I get out the count on Friday morning (or more likely see from reactions in the hall) that we have voted to leave?

    The truth is I would feel anxious about what the future was going to hold. But if it was Remain I'd feel disappointed about what the future was going to hold. That's not easy.

    It's not a bad idea, the EU. It;s a nice dream. And they want us to remain. Or rather, they want the dream of us to remain, not the obstructive, difficult real version of us to remain. Having such dreams is good, but after so long, maybe, despite the risks, it's time to accept the dream isn't going to become real?
  • Options
    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    theakes said:

    The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?

    Then why are the betting markets telling a completely different story?!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,268

    Perhaps for the last time:

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/725339057669165058


    What do you mean: last time?

    After we Brexit, that will be our new logo.

    I just think it's gonna be very close!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,959
    FPT (sigh):

    John_M said:

    OllyT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Didn't fit into 1 post.

    Nothing different to what we've heard from the Remain campaign for months. Right down to Putin.

    We'll get EEA-EFTA if it's a narrow Leave vote and I'd be very happy with that.
    That's been the plan along I suspect, the angry anti-immigration voters will prove to have just been the cannon fodder, the useful idiots that got Leave over the line. They will be ignored after tomorrow. Totally deceitful strategy of course but very clever nevertheless.
    No, because we *can* use an emergency brake and EU citizens won't have quite the same rights (as Robert pointed out)

    I think it will be "sellable" that if it's a narrow Leave mandate, the votes simply aren't there to justify a full clean break (they might be if Leave won 65/35) and we can always reassess the relationship in 10-15 years time.
    As I said earlier I am almost 100% certain we cannot use the emergency brake in the way you believe. If we join EFTA and stay in the EEA then we are accepting that - with the exception of the rules on benefits which may well be significant - we cannot do much more about immigration than we can now.
    As immigration isn't a big deal for me (while appreciating it's a fecking colossal deal for others), what are the implications for our relationship with the ECHR?

    An informal poll of my long-suffering relatives indicated that they perceive that we have difficulty ejecting EU citizens who've committed criminal acts. My initial thought was this was actually perception vs reality....then realized I have no idea. Thoughts?
    No implications at all. There was a move up until a year or more ago to make the EU a signatory to the ECHR and to try to standardise rulings. That would have meant that as long as one stayed in the EU one was bound by the ECHR - at least that would have been the eventual aim. The ECJ (I believe) ruled against this so the two institutions (EU and ECHR remain completely separate).

    If the UK wanted to Leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then being inside or outside the EU makes no difference. Nor does being inside or outside EFTA/EEA
    It was the EHCR itself who ruled against it, saying that as the EU was not a country, it could not be a signatory.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited June 2016
    Mensch is on the C4 show too... TFFT should mean twitter isn't swamped for a bit.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
    Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means

    The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.

    Methinks this is good for leave
    Or "oh bad luck" .....when it comes to rude Chinese officials

    I have to say that comment was legendary.
  • Options
    JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    Evening all.

    As I walked back to my car from a work function I felt a calmness in the air and it fully struck home to me how momentous an occasion tomorrow is in the history of our country. Regardless of the result, this referendum has been a huge event.

    I always feel a sense of duty on my walk to the polling station, but this vote makes a General Election feel like small fry. Perhaps those voters walking to the polling stations in 1997 felt like this; I don't know.

    I will vote Leave tomorrow with a sense of hope for the future. Leaving the EU is no immediate panacea, but it represents the starting step in the process of boosting our country's democracy.

    Whichever way you vote tomorrow, thank you for having your say. I'll be up early to leaflet for Vote Leave in Coventry.

    Have a good polling day everyone.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    kle4 said:

    It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.

    If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)

    Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.

    If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
    I think you are probably right about the timing of that. Could give rise to some nice betting opportunities.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    Mencsh is on the C4 show too... TFFT should mean twitter isn't swamped for a bit.

    Maybe Twitter paid her to get off her phone for a few mins?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    theakes said:

    The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?

    Then why are the betting markets telling a completely different story?!
    Rich punters not believing people can be so stupid.
  • Options
    El_DaveEl_Dave Posts: 145
    edited June 2016
    DeClare said:


    My personal opinion is that the Remain vote is soft among traditional Labour voters, not the Guardianistas or Twitterers but normal people who disproportionally won't turnout.

    I think one of Leave's most effective lines is:

    "If we weren't already a member of the EU, would you vote to join? If you wouldn't, vote Leave"

    You put the question like that, and all doubt evaporates.
  • Options
    NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
    Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means

    The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.

    Methinks this is good for leave
    Whats he odds on it being exactly 50:50 ?
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    My Boringness filter tells me Remain will win because it's the boring option. That's all I got.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Mensch is on the C4 show too... TFFT should mean twitter isn't swamped for a bit.

    And there goes me reaching for the off button....
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,959

    Could these betting shits be anything to do with Fargle pulling out?

    Am I a "betting shit"?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.

    “I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    El_Dave said:

    DeClare said:


    My personal opinion is that the Remain vote is soft among traditional Labour voters, not the Guardianistas or Twitterers but normal people who disproportionally won't turnout.
    I see turnout of around 66% and 51% Leave.

    I think one of Leave's most effective lines is:

    "If we weren't already a member of the EU, would you vote to join? If you wouldn't, vote Leave"

    You put the question like that, and all doubt evaporates.
    I don't think they pushed the idea that Remain isn't a vote for the status quo hard enough.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Mensch is on the C4 show too... TFFT should mean twitter isn't swamped for a bit.

    Hannan is on too.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,055

    Perhaps for the last time:

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/725339057669165058


    What do you mean: last time?

    After we Brexit, that will be our new logo.

    You can simplify it to 'Leave Britain'.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    I have literally no idea what will happen tomorrow. I don't recall ever being so flummoxed.

    Both sides are relying on extremely unreliable allies to carry them over the line.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Regarding price movements ahead of touted polls, I suspect what goes on is not leaking of the poll (as often they don't actually justify the movement when they are published) so much as people betting on what they think the poll will say and trying to get ahead of whatever movement it will bring.
  • Options

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
    Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means

    I seem to recall that they came up with a similar description for an earlier poll and when it emerged it was as dull as dishwater, or am I confusing them with YouGov perhaps?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    JamesM said:

    Evening all.

    As I walked back to my car from a work function I felt a calmness in the air and it fully struck home to me how momentous an occasion tomorrow is in the history of our country. Regardless of the result, this referendum has been a huge event.

    I always feel a sense of duty on my walk to the polling station, but this vote makes a General Election feel like small fry. Perhaps those voters walking to the polling stations in 1997 felt like this; I don't know.

    I will vote Leave tomorrow with a sense of hope for the future. Leaving the EU is no immediate panacea, but it represents the starting step in the process of boosting our country's democracy.

    Whichever way you vote tomorrow, thank you for having your say. I'll be up early to leaflet for Vote Leave in Coventry.

    Have a good polling day everyone.

    You too James. That's why I vote in person - there's just something so tingly about it.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.

    If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)

    Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.

    If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
    @Casino_Royale win or lose you've been one of the PB heroes of this campaign. Totally blow away the caricatures of the Leave supporter. I have found you conscientious and consistent, despite putting up with more than your fair share of abuse.

    With the fence still annoying rammed up my backside tonight, if I do jump to leave, you will have played a big part in that.
    Aww, cheers mate. I am genuinely touched.

    Really kind of you to say that.
    Go and find a room you two.

  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    edited June 2016
    what happened to Trump coming over? did he come over and keep quiet or did he cancel the trip? i've seen nothing about it either way?

    Edit: Just seen in comments upthread that he's coming Friday now apparently?? Comments coming too fast to follow them all!
  • Options
    scoopscoop Posts: 64
    Only two phone polls have REMAIN winning?
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    PlatoSaid said:

    Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.

    “I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”

    :D. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.

    Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder ;).
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,814
    Three cheers for @Casino_Royale
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    what happened to Trump coming over? did he come over and keep quiet or did he cancel the trip? i've seen nothing about it either way?

    Trump, keep quiet? Have you gone mad?
  • Options
    DeClareDeClare Posts: 483

    theakes said:

    The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?

    Then why are the betting markets telling a completely different story?!
    Favourites get beaten every day, the odds on Brexit are roughly the same on Trump winning, some people bet on what they want to happen rather than on which option represents the best value.
    Leave is the sensible bet at these prices.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    theakes said:

    The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?

    Then why are the betting markets telling a completely different story?!
    because 13% are still undecided?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    what happened to Trump coming over? did he come over and keep quiet or did he cancel the trip? i've seen nothing about it either way?

    I think it's on Friday.
  • Options
    theakes said:

    The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?

    That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    NoEasyDay said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
    Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means

    The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.

    Methinks this is good for leave
    Whats he odds on it being exactly 50:50 ?
    That's my prediction now....well very, very, very, very close.

    I think all the idealism that you Brexiters are changing the world (you doe eyed fools) will be equally and perfectly matched by people who do not want to see the UK impoverished.


  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,814
    JamesM said:

    Evening all.

    As I walked back to my car from a work function I felt a calmness in the air and it fully struck home to me how momentous an occasion tomorrow is in the history of our country. Regardless of the result, this referendum has been a huge event.

    I always feel a sense of duty on my walk to the polling station, but this vote makes a General Election feel like small fry. Perhaps those voters walking to the polling stations in 1997 felt like this; I don't know.

    1997 was my first general election and I voted New Labour. It was an exciting experience but for me, this is much, much bigger.

    This really is a "once in a lifetime" moment to shape the countries long term destiny....

  • Options
    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    GIN1138 said:

    Three cheers for @Casino_Royale

    Hip, hip, hooray!
    Hip, hip, hooray!
    Hip, hip, hooray!
    And don't forget the champagne..... fzzzzzzz!





  • Options
    El_DaveEl_Dave Posts: 145

    El_Dave said:

    DeClare said:


    My personal opinion is that the Remain vote is soft among traditional Labour voters, not the Guardianistas or Twitterers but normal people who disproportionally won't turnout.
    I see turnout of around 66% and 51% Leave.

    I think one of Leave's most effective lines is:

    "If we weren't already a member of the EU, would you vote to join? If you wouldn't, vote Leave"

    You put the question like that, and all doubt evaporates.
    I don't think they pushed the idea that Remain isn't a vote for the status quo hard enough.
    ? I delivered some leaflets the other day "countries set to join the EU" with the EU external border being extended to Syria and Iraq.

    I'd say they've been pressing the dangers of Remain pretty hard.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2016
    class="Quote" rel="Casino_Royale">Where's Trump?

    Is he still coming tomorrow?

    He's cutting a ribbon at Turnberry on Friday morning.

    No word on his precise movements between now and then...
  • Options
    tyson said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
    Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means

    The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.

    Methinks this is good for leave
    Whats he odds on it being exactly 50:50 ?
    That's my prediction now....well very, very, very, very close.

    I think all the idealism that you Brexiters are changing the world (you doe eyed fools) will be equally and perfectly matched by people who do not want to see the UK impoverished.
    impoverished?
    That is not as bad as WW3.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Matt, perfect as ever.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
  • Options
    TimTim Posts: 44

    theakes said:

    The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?

    That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
    Or, in the event of Brexit, the pound won't actually fall 15% and will really only fall 5-10%. In which case we shouldn't expect to see massive movements in the futures markets
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    theakes said:

    The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?

    That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
    It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    RodCrosby said:

    Freggles said:

    Where's Trump?

    Is he still coming tomorrow?
    Freggles said:

    Where's Trump?

    Is he still coming tomorrow?
    He's cutting a ribbon at Turnberry on Friday morning.

    No word on his precise movements between now and then...
    Thank God he didn't come today.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    PlatoSaid said:

    Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.

    “I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”

    Yeah that's an epic quote, a favourite of Mrs. Sandpit. Enjoy :)
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    edited June 2016
    Anecdote alert. A girl I went to school with has just asked on Facebook if she needs her polling card to vote (told her to take some ID). When asked how she's voting she said Leave. I have to say, I had her down as somebody who doesn't vote.
  • Options
    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    NoEasyDay said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
    Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means

    The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.

    Methinks this is good for leave
    Whats he odds on it being exactly 50:50 ?
    If we leave will the Queen be happy when her Greek hubby gets sent home?

This discussion has been closed.