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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling evidence against Corbyn mounts. Smith’s beating him by 24% as “best PM”

By 58% to 42% those polled by BMG say Smith would make best leader. Smith wins best comparison by 62 to 38https://t.co/TaOtCC9Lct

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Cyclefree

Whether this will help Smith depends on whether the Labour electorate will pay any attention.

Oh..... and first?

Sunil_Prasannan

Alas Smith and Corbyn

Cyclefree

FPT (in response to @IanB2)




Nevertheless, if your family reported nearly everyone they met in the NW being leave, then either they weren't in fact meeting a representative cross-section, or people weren't being entirely straight.


Probably true. They weren't doing any sort of analysis. It was the contrast with the assumption that people made in London i.e. that Remain would likely win. My daughter was surprised by the sorts of people she would have expected in London to be Remain (and who largely were) who were for Leave. Purely anecdotal. I only mention it because they got the result right unlike - as they crowed later - me, who is more interested in politics.

Carolus_Rex

The London figure is striking, isn't it? London's supposed to be a Labour city, Corbyn is a London MP.

Sunil_Prasannan

Carolus_Rex said:

The London figure is striking, isn't it? London's supposed to be a Labour city, Corbyn is a London MP.

"At least we'll have Scotland"

malcolmg

LOL, Smith is an absolute loser, he will be severely thrashed and return to obscurity.

Alanbrooke

Owen Smith

nice guy, but he's not a leader.

IanB2

IanB2 said:

Cyclefree said:

FPT (in response to @IanB2)




Nevertheless, if your family reported nearly everyone they met in the NW being leave, then either they weren't in fact meeting a representative cross-section, or people weren't being entirely straight.

Probably true. They weren't doing any sort of analysis. It was the contrast with the assumption that people made in London i.e. that Remain would likely win. My daughter was surprised by the sorts of people she would have expected in London to be Remain (and who largely were) who were for Leave. Purely anecdotal. I only mention it because they got the result right unlike - as they crowed later - me, who is more interested in politics.

Interesting - although the one piece of academic analysis I have seen of the vote suggests that both London and the NW were close to par, once the tendency of younger people to vote remain and vice versa, and graduates to vote remain and vice versa, had been allowed for. So on average this would suggest that the same "type of person" would have the same probability of voting remain in either location.

Edit/ and I got it wrong, too. My brother, who runs a restaurant in the Home Counties, had told me that most of his customers were leave, but I discounted this information.

Jonathan

I like Smith. He has potential. He is a credible leader. Better IMO than Corbyn or EdM.

Whether this challenge has helped him or not is too early to say.

[Deleted User]

Corbyn is clearly going to win by a country mile. What the non-loonylefty bit of Labour needs to do is listen to OGH! It's about the leader. They need to rally around someone who has the makings of a future PM. God knows who that is. It's clearly not Smith, or Cooper, or Umunna or Burnham or anyone I've probably ever heard of. But assuming there is a new PM-in-waiting hiding somewhere in the wings of Labour's centrists they need to get that person out there and lead SDP2. Labour itself is now a lost cause to the centrists. The hard left have waited 40 years to take control of Labour and they aren't going to give it back. Ever.

IanB2

Alanbrooke said:

Owen Smith

nice guy, but he's not a leader.

The central critique the MPs have of Corby is that he is not a leader, yet their mistake is that they haven't put forward one themselves.

MTimT

@ John_M FPT

Interesting article from totalpolitics, and probably right.

I guess I am a Revolutionary Moderniser, which comes as something of a surprise to me, as I always think of myself as Burkean.

SquareRoot

Alanbrooke said:

Owen Smith

nice guy, but he's not a leader.

a 200 billion we haven't got first grade loon.. Labour are fecked whoever wins

SimonStClare

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

foxinsoxuk

IanB2 said:

IanB2 said:

Cyclefree said:

FPT (in response to @IanB2)




Nevertheless, if your family reported nearly everyone they met in the NW being leave, then either they weren't in fact meeting a representative cross-section, or people weren't being entirely straight.

Probably true. They weren't doing any sort of analysis. It was the contrast with the assumption that people made in London i.e. that Remain would likely win. My daughter was surprised by the sorts of people she would have expected in London to be Remain (and who largely were) who were for Leave. Purely anecdotal. I only mention it because they got the result right unlike - as they crowed later - me, who is more interested in politics.

Interesting - although the one piece of academic analysis I have seen of the vote suggests that both London and the NW were close to par, once the tendency of younger people to vote remain and vice versa, and graduates to vote remain and vice versa, had been allowed for. So on average this would suggest that the same "type of person" would have the same probability of voting remain in either location.

Edit/ and I got it wrong, too. My brother, who runs a restaurant in the Home Counties, had told me that most of his customers were leave, but I discounted this information.

My anecdata in the weeks before from coffee room conversations was slightly to Leave, and reported here. Bearing in mind these were AB voters and working in the NHS, it was a reasonable pointer to an overall Leave vote. (Leicester was marginally for In 51/49%, the County for out 55/45%)

SimonStClare

SquareRoot said:

Alanbrooke said:

Owen Smith

nice guy, but he's not a leader.

a 200 billion we haven't got first grade loon.. Labour are fecked whoever wins

Owen Smith looks like a Frenchman, sounds like a Welshman and waffles on like a Russian.

The country will never vote for him at a general election.

Carolus_Rex

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Carolus_Rex said:

The London figure is striking, isn't it? London's supposed to be a Labour city, Corbyn is a London MP.

"At least we'll have Scotland"

Not by much!

PlatoSaid

Theodora Dickinson
100 years ago today Charles Leach became the only MP deprived of his seat after being declared 'of unsound mind'. https://t.co/1I3bZQFDwt

grabcocque

PlatoSaid said:

Theodora Dickinson
100 years ago today Charles Leach became the only MP deprived of his seat after being declared 'of unsound mind'. https://t.co/1I3bZQFDwt

Nowadays it's a minimum requirement.

grabcocque

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Slackbladder

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Jonathan

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

DavidL

57% lead for May over Corbyn amongst the group who vote the most. Just incredible.

Sunil_Prasannan

SimonStClare said:

SquareRoot said:

Alanbrooke said:

Owen Smith

nice guy, but he's not a leader.

a 200 billion we haven't got first grade loon.. Labour are fecked whoever wins

Owen Smith looks like a Frenchman, sounds like a Welshman and waffles on like a Russian.

The country will never vote for him at a general election.

Have Smith and Francois Hollande been seen in the same room together??

grabcocque

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Point the first: Tony Blair was popular. TORY!
Point the second: Blair won elections. TORY!
Point the third: Blair had the support of his MPs. TORY!

I mean, I could go on.

John_M

DavidL said:

57% lead for May over Corbyn amongst the group who vote the most. Just incredible.

I posted the Ipsos Mori GE15 turnout figures earlier:

18-24 43%
25-34 54%
35-44 64%
45-54 72%
55-64 77%
65+ 78%

Read 'em and weep.Not a solitary crumb of comfort for the Corbynites. However, they've moved off Planet Reality and just call this kind of thing propaganda.

Slackbladder

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Well ask the typical labour party member at the moment and you might get a different answer..

Sunil_Prasannan

grabcocque said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Point the first: Tony Blair was popular. TORY!
Point the second: Blair won elections. TORY!
Point the third: Blair had the support of his MPs. TORY!

I mean, I could go on.

Only Tories bomb and invade third world countries! TORY!

taffys

''I mean, I could go on. ''

If labour is a party that wants to put principle over power, that is its affair. IF it wants to howl in a corner then let it.

Something will emerge to fill the vacuum. And quickly.

Sunil_Prasannan

John_M said:

DavidL said:

57% lead for May over Corbyn amongst the group who vote the most. Just incredible.

I posted the Ipsos Mori GE15 turnout figures earlier:

18-24 43%
25-34 54%
35-44 64%
45-54 72%
55-64 77%
65+ 78%

Read 'em and weep.Not a solitary crumb of comfort for the Corbynites. However, they've moved off Planet Reality and just call this kind of thing propaganda.

Ipsos MORI = Tory corporation!

GIN1138

malcolmg said:

LOL, Smith is an absolute loser, he will be severely thrashed and return to obscurity.

Afternoon Malc.

We can but hope that the anti-democrats in the PLP are defeated.

PlatoSaid

Of all Olympic events, the marathon sea swim leaves me gobsmacked.

We've got a chap in 4th with a little bit to go.

grabcocque

Sunil_Prasannan said:

grabcocque said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Point the first: Tony Blair was popular. TORY!
Point the second: Blair won elections. TORY!
Point the third: Blair had the support of his MPs. TORY!

I mean, I could go on.

Only Tories bomb and invade third world countries! TORY!

Corbyn is on the take from Putin's Russia Today and Iran's Press TV. TORY!

DavidL

John_M said:

DavidL said:

57% lead for May over Corbyn amongst the group who vote the most. Just incredible.

I posted the Ipsos Mori GE15 turnout figures earlier:

18-24 43%
25-34 54%
35-44 64%
45-54 72%
55-64 77%
65+ 78%

Read 'em and weep.Not a solitary crumb of comfort for the Corbynites. However, they've moved off Planet Reality and just call this kind of thing propaganda.

I don't really like one party states. We have tried it again in Scotland recently and it really didn't work. The most stupid ideas you can imagine get persevered with well beyond any measure of sanity. There are enough really delusional fantasies floating around inside the Tory party to make this a genuine concern.

If Labour are determined to give up representative democracy we need them to get out of the road of a party committed to it.

grabcocque

John_M said:

DavidL said:

57% lead for May over Corbyn amongst the group who vote the most. Just incredible.

I posted the Ipsos Mori GE15 turnout figures earlier:

18-24 43%
25-34 54%
35-44 64%
45-54 72%
55-64 77%
65+ 78%

Read 'em and weep.Not a solitary crumb of comfort for the Corbynites. However, they've moved off Planet Reality and just call this kind of thing propaganda.

WHY DOESN'T PLANET REALITY JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Sunil_Prasannan

grabcocque said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

grabcocque said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Point the first: Tony Blair was popular. TORY!
Point the second: Blair won elections. TORY!
Point the third: Blair had the support of his MPs. TORY!

I mean, I could go on.

Only Tories bomb and invade third world countries! TORY!

Corbyn is on the take from Putin's Russia Today and Iran's Press TV. TORY!

Putin hates gay people! TORY!

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

IanB2 said:

Cyclefree said:

FPT (in response to @IanB2)




Nevertheless, if your family reported nearly everyone they met in the NW being leave, then either they weren't in fact meeting a representative cross-section, or people weren't being entirely straight.

Probably true. They weren't doing any sort of analysis. It was the contrast with the assumption that people made in London i.e. that Remain would likely win. My daughter was surprised by the sorts of people she would have expected in London to be Remain (and who largely were) who were for Leave. Purely anecdotal. I only mention it because they got the result right unlike - as they crowed later - me, who is more interested in politics.

Interesting - although the one piece of academic analysis I have seen of the vote suggests that both London and the NW were close to par, once the tendency of younger people to vote remain and vice versa, and graduates to vote remain and vice versa, had been allowed for. So on average this would suggest that the same "type of person" would have the same probability of voting remain in either location.

Edit/ and I got it wrong, too. My brother, who runs a restaurant in the Home Counties, had told me that most of his customers were leave, but I discounted this information.

The real outlier was the former London County Council area, which voted Remain by 72% to 28%. The twenty boroughs of Outer London voted Remain by 54% to 46%. In fact, Outer London was much closer to the rest of England than it was to Inner London in terms of the way it voted. 5 Outer London boroughs voted Leave, and 5 more came close to voting Leave. Conservative boroughs in Inner London (Wandsworth, Westminster, Kensington) were almost as solid for Remain as Labour boroughs.

Jonathan

Slackbladder said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Well ask the typical labour party member at the moment and you might get a different answer..

You might. Doesn't make it true.

It is interesting how both the Labour left and the Conservatives conspire to airbrush the fact that Blair not only defeated he Tories he utterly eviscerated them to the point that they had to change dramatically to get back into power.

Oh well.

John_M

DavidL said:

John_M said:

DavidL said:

57% lead for May over Corbyn amongst the group who vote the most. Just incredible.

I posted the Ipsos Mori GE15 turnout figures earlier:

18-24 43%
25-34 54%
35-44 64%
45-54 72%
55-64 77%
65+ 78%

Read 'em and weep.Not a solitary crumb of comfort for the Corbynites. However, they've moved off Planet Reality and just call this kind of thing propaganda.

I don't really like one party states. We have tried it again in Scotland recently and it really didn't work. The most stupid ideas you can imagine get persevered with well beyond any measure of sanity. There are enough really delusional fantasies floating around inside the Tory party to make this a genuine concern.

If Labour are determined to give up representative democracy we need them to get out of the road of a party committed to it.

Quite. While I'm mostly a Tory (wet, one nation, tending to Blairite), I'm also a parliamentarian. We need a competent government held to account by a strong opposition.

I am deeply uncomfortable with the idea that my vote only has one home, particularly given the broad church that we laughingly call the Tories. It could easily morph into something much less palatable.

Sunil_Prasannan

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Well ask the typical labour party member at the moment and you might get a different answer..

You might. Doesn't make it true.

It is interesting how both the Labour left and the Conservatives conspire to airbrush the fact that Blair not only defeated he Tories he utterly eviscerated them to the point that they had to change dramatically to get back into power.

Oh well.

Um, weren't Labour pretty much eviscerated in 2015?

MarqueeMark

Brit was leading the big sea swimming with a couple of hundred metres to go ...... but now a wall of swimmers together! Great finish.....

grabcocque

Jonathan said:

It is interesting how both the Labour left and the Conservatives conspire to airbrush the fact that Blair not only defeated he Tories he utterly eviscerated them to the point that they had to change dramatically to get back into power.

Oh well.

What? This was the *entire premise* of Cameron's premiership. One of the great ironies of Blair is that in the end he changed the Tories much more than he ever managed in his own party.

But in truth, it wasn't changing the Tories, more changing them *back*. Back to governing from the centre, where elections are won and lost.

CarlottaVance

You have to wonder how many people actually know who Owen Smith is.

Other than not Jeremy Corbyn

Jonathan

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Well ask the typical labour party member at the moment and you might get a different answer..

You might. Doesn't make it true.

It is interesting how both the Labour left and the Conservatives conspire to airbrush the fact that Blair not only defeated he Tories he utterly eviscerated them to the point that they had to change dramatically to get back into power.

Oh well.

Um, weren't Labour pretty much eviscerated in 2015?

Nope. Above 200 seats, about 70 seats more than the Tories in 97.

Sunil_Prasannan

Jonathan said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Well ask the typical labour party member at the moment and you might get a different answer..

You might. Doesn't make it true.

It is interesting how both the Labour left and the Conservatives conspire to airbrush the fact that Blair not only defeated he Tories he utterly eviscerated them to the point that they had to change dramatically to get back into power.

Oh well.

Um, weren't Labour pretty much eviscerated in 2015?

Nope. Above 200 seats, about 70 seats more than the Tories in 97.

How many seats do you have in Scotland and Southeast England?

PlatoSaid

Photo finish after 400 lengths of a swimming pool!

Jonathan

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Jonathan said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Well ask the typical labour party member at the moment and you might get a different answer..

You might. Doesn't make it true.

It is interesting how both the Labour left and the Conservatives conspire to airbrush the fact that Blair not only defeated he Tories he utterly eviscerated them to the point that they had to change dramatically to get back into power.

Oh well.

Um, weren't Labour pretty much eviscerated in 2015?

Nope. Above 200 seats, about 70 seats more than the Tories in 97.

How many seats do you have in Scotland and Southeast England?

Me? None. Labour have a few though.

Sunil_Prasannan

PlatoSaid said:

Photo finish after 400 lengths of a swimming pool!

Hopefully no hydrogen peroxide this time

Sunil_Prasannan

Jonathan said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Jonathan said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Well ask the typical labour party member at the moment and you might get a different answer..

You might. Doesn't make it true.

It is interesting how both the Labour left and the Conservatives conspire to airbrush the fact that Blair not only defeated he Tories he utterly eviscerated them to the point that they had to change dramatically to get back into power.

Oh well.

Um, weren't Labour pretty much eviscerated in 2015?

Nope. Above 200 seats, about 70 seats more than the Tories in 97.

How many seats do you have in Scotland and Southeast England?

Me? None. Labour have a few though.

I thought you were a Labour fan.

Anyway, just the one seat in Scotland. How many in 2010?

Sean_F

Even 18-24 year olds may not be as solid for Corbyn as these figures suggest. What's striking about sub-samples for this group is that they are generally massively more left wing, and massively more pro-EU, than the country as a whole, but with such a small sub-sample, pollsters may be picking up a very politicised, but unrepresentatively left wing, group of young people.

CarlottaVance

From the YouGov summary:

In terms of just those with favourable opinions, Theresa May is fourteen points more popular than her party – vital for any politician who seeks to appeal beyond their party’s usual support base. In fact, Theresa May is seen far more favourably among C2DE voters – the Labour party’s traditional support base – than Jeremy Corbyn is, at 44% vs 27%.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/15/theresa-may-more-popular-jeremy-corbyn-among-tradi/

DavidL

CarlottaVance said:

You have to wonder how many people actually know who Owen Smith is.

Other than not Jeremy Corbyn

Surely that is enough.

John_M

CarlottaVance said:

From the YouGov summary:

In terms of just those with favourable opinions, Theresa May is fourteen points more popular than her party – vital for any politician who seeks to appeal beyond their party’s usual support base. In fact, Theresa May is seen far more favourably among C2DE voters – the Labour party’s traditional support base – than Jeremy Corbyn is, at 44% vs 27%.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/15/theresa-may-more-popular-jeremy-corbyn-among-tradi/

Jeremy wants (or supports) unfettered immigration. This is not a vote winner oop North.

grabcocque

Jonathan said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Well ask the typical labour party member at the moment and you might get a different answer..

You might. Doesn't make it true.

It is interesting how both the Labour left and the Conservatives conspire to airbrush the fact that Blair not only defeated he Tories he utterly eviscerated them to the point that they had to change dramatically to get back into power.

Oh well.

Um, weren't Labour pretty much eviscerated in 2015?

Nope. Above 200 seats, about 70 seats more than the Tories in 97.

The Labour->Tory swing in 2010 was 9.9 pts
The Tory->Labour swing in 1997 was 20 pts

Yes, Labour got pounded like a dockside hooker in 2010, but it wasn't close to what happened to Sir John's ringpiece.

taffys

''Brit was leading the big sea swimming with a couple of hundred metres to go ...... but now a wall of swimmers together! Great finish.....''

It looked like they released an underfed great white into the water

PlatoSaid

MarqueeMark said:

Brit was leading the big sea swimming with a couple of hundred metres to go ...... but now a wall of swimmers together! Great finish.....

Wasn't that amazing?!? Medal or not, stunning

HYUFD

CarlottaVance said:

You have to wonder how many people actually know who Owen Smith is.

Other than not Jeremy Corbyn

If the question were asked 'who would make the best PM, a dead parrot or Corbyn? ' I expect the parrot would win (at least outside of left-wing Labour voters)

Sean_F

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Well ask the typical labour party member at the moment and you might get a different answer..

You might. Doesn't make it true.

It is interesting how both the Labour left and the Conservatives conspire to airbrush the fact that Blair not only defeated he Tories he utterly eviscerated them to the point that they had to change dramatically to get back into power.

Oh well.

I do think that in the long run, Blair did immense damage to his own party, by causing it to wither and die in many of its heartlands. While his government was not a Conservative one, it did appear so, on economic issues, to Labour voters in Scotland, and in a lot of working class districts. At the same time, the left wing and pro-EU policies which his government implemented were very much the concerns of the Inner London left. They either left many Labour voters in the provinces cold, or alienated them.

That's not to say that Corbyn is the answer to Labour's woes, but nor is a return to Blairism.

kle4

I have absolutely no impression of OwenSmith. He might be just fine.

And while the PLP have behaved prett awfully,and incompetently, there is nothing inherently wrong with continuing to fight against someone with a mandate - oppositions do it every time they lose an election.

Philip_Thompson

Sean_F said:

Even 18-24 year olds may not be as solid for Corbyn as these figures suggest. What's striking about sub-samples for this group is that they are generally massively more left wing, and massively more pro-EU, than the country as a whole, but with such a small sub-sample, pollsters may be picking up a very politicised, but unrepresentatively left wing, group of young people.

Though it's politicised young people who bother to vote. So more representative of young voters than the young populace as a whole.

CarlottaVance

Nice Hat Tip for OGH on the YouGov article:

As revealed this morning on PoliticalBetting, a new YouGov favourability survey has shown that Theresa May is the UK’s most popular politician and the only one to be viewed favourably overall.

Sean_F

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Even 18-24 year olds may not be as solid for Corbyn as these figures suggest. What's striking about sub-samples for this group is that they are generally massively more left wing, and massively more pro-EU, than the country as a whole, but with such a small sub-sample, pollsters may be picking up a very politicised, but unrepresentatively left wing, group of young people.

Though it's politicised young people who bother to vote. So more representative of young voters than the young populace as a whole.

I'm struck though, by the big difference in attitudes between 18-24 year olds, OTOH, and 25-39 year olds, on the other in polling. Perhaps it is simply the experience of working and starting families that causes a marked shift in attitudes.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

One of our cyclists has failed to win a race in the velodrome. Presumably he's been handed the ritual disembowelling knife

theakes

Mike, once the contest is over and the May honeymoon breaks up into normal domestic political disharmony all this will change. Whoever wins and the polling evidence that matters, ie Labour members, says its 2 -1 or more for Corbyn, the party will find a way to unite.
What intrigues me is that generally speaking the current voting in local by elections does not appear to support the "May honeymoon" and indeed the Labours vote is really no worse than it was in those wards 2, 3, 4 years ago, in some cases better
To me Owen Smith comes across as out of his depth, is he just a stalking horse?.

[Deleted User]

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Even 18-24 year olds may not be as solid for Corbyn as these figures suggest. What's striking about sub-samples for this group is that they are generally massively more left wing, and massively more pro-EU, than the country as a whole, but with such a small sub-sample, pollsters may be picking up a very politicised, but unrepresentatively left wing, group of young people.

Though it's politicised young people who bother to vote. So more representative of young voters than the young populace as a whole.

I'm struck though, by the big difference in attitudes between 18-24 year olds, OTOH, and 25-39 year olds, on the other in polling. Perhaps it is simply the experience of working and starting families that causes a marked shift in attitudes.

There seems to have been a big shift towards a more socially liberal world view almost everywhere - but perhaps also a realisation that a more sensible/conservative view of money and finance are necessary foundations for a successful country.

(I note, with pleasure and interest that there have been 4 marriage proposals live on air at the Olympics - 2 of them from gay couples).

DavidL

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

One of our cyclists has failed to win a race in the velodrome. Presumably he's been handed the ritual disembowelling knife

Is that allowed?

tlg86

Trott has a 12 point lead in the Omnium. She's looking good for gold medal number four which would take her out on her own for golds won by a woman.

eek

kle4 said:

I have absolutely no impression of OwenSmith. He might be just fine.

And while the PLP have behaved prett awfully,and incompetently, there is nothing inherently wrong with continuing to fight against someone with a mandate - oppositions do it every time they lose an election.

A very decent weekend away tells me that Owen or in fact anyone other than Jezza would be the ideal labour leader..

SimonStClare

theakes said:

[snip]

To me Owen Smith comes across as out of his depth, is he just a stalking horse?.

I thought Angela Eagle was the stalking horse and Smith, the real deal? - Besides, if none of the ‘big beasts’ within Labour are prepared to show their hand at this late stage of the game, then they never will, imho.

FrancisUrquhart

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

One of our cyclists has failed to win a race in the velodrome. Presumably he's been handed the ritual disembowelling knife

On the naughty step with the rowers....who despite being the #1 nation in the rowing, missed the official target set by the blazers.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. F, can only speak for myself, but I found I matured not at all from 16-18, but enormously from 18-21. It might just be that.

Edited extra bit: but a little later, obviously. Not everyone matures at the rapid pace of a morris dancer.

PClipp

grabcocque said:

But in truth, it wasn't changing the Tories, more changing them *back*. Back to governing from the centre, where elections are won and lost.

Hardly that, Mr Coque. The Tories under May have reverted to their true type. Hard, uncaring, selfish, spiteful... about as nasty as even you could wish for.

TOPPING

theakes said:

Mike, once the contest is over and the May honeymoon breaks up into normal domestic political disharmony all this will change. Whoever wins and the polling evidence that matters, ie Labour members, says its 2 -1 or more for Corbyn, the party will find a way to unite.
What intrigues me is that generally speaking the current voting in local by elections does not appear to support the "May honeymoon" and indeed the Labours vote is really no worse than it was in those wards 2, 3, 4 years ago, in some cases better
To me Owen Smith comes across as out of his depth, is he just a stalking horse?.

I think this is right - just at the moment when people truly believe we are at the end of history, it takes another turn and chugs on. I think that Lab people want Smith now, who would then fall on his sword nobly and let some other candidates in...Jarvis..Umunna..whoever.

Whether Smith is signed up to this we shall see. It is slightly taking liberties with a great office of state but desperate times...

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Urquhart, gadzooks! Their ceremonial bowler hats should be revoked.

Mr. L, the disembowelling, or the not winning?

SimonStClare

DavidL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

One of our cyclists has failed to win a race in the velodrome. Presumably he's been handed the ritual disembowelling knife

Is that allowed?

Probably not – but It will be good prep for Tokyo 2020.

justin124

grabcocque said:

Jonathan said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Well ask the typical labour party member at the moment and you might get a different answer..

You might. Doesn't make it true.

It is interesting how both the Labour left and the Conservatives conspire to airbrush the fact that Blair not only defeated he Tories he utterly eviscerated them to the point that they had to change dramatically to get back into power.

Oh well.

Um, weren't Labour pretty much eviscerated in 2015?

Nope. Above 200 seats, about 70 seats more than the Tories in 97.

The Labour->Tory swing in 2010 was 9.9 pts
The Tory->Labour swing in 1997 was 20 pts

Yes, Labour got pounded like a dockside hooker in 2010, but it wasn't close to what happened to Sir John's ringpiece.

The Lab to Tory swing in 2010 was acrually 5% . In 1997 the Tory to Lab swing circa 10%.

kle4

PClipp said:

grabcocque said:

But in truth, it wasn't changing the Tories, more changing them *back*. Back to governing from the centre, where elections are won and lost.

Hardly that, Mr Coque. The Tories under May have reverted to their true type. Hard, uncaring, selfish, spiteful... about as nasty as even you could wish for.

It's a little early to be declaring that Mr Clipp! She hasn't had a chance to be a devil or a saint yet. Certainly some are hoping, particularly with Labour indulging in their own squabbles, she could go hard right and still win, although I think they would be in error if they thought that was a good idea. The Tory ceiling still seems no higher than it was, and if they push too hard some will go elsewhere even if Labour are, well, as at present.

GeoffM

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

One of our cyclists has failed to win a race in the velodrome. Presumably he's been handed the ritual disembowelling knife

Why? The Mess Webley remains in its usual drawer in the library and there's some excellent single malt nearby. Why break with a successful tradition?

Knives? Meh. Barbarian nonsense.

PlatoSaid

Mark White Sky
BREAKING - After a court order preventing publication we can now reveal hate preacher Anjem Choudary guilty of inviting support for ISIS

He's in jail

Fiona Hamilton
Anjem Choudary will be sentenced for terror offences next month. He's facing 10 years jail

bigjohnowls

Rally over. The Messiah has given hope.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

IanB2 said:

Cyclefree said:

FPT (in response to @IanB2)




Nevertheless, if your family reported nearly everyone they met in the NW being leave, then either they weren't in fact meeting a representative cross-section, or people weren't being entirely straight.

Probably true. They weren't doing any sort of analysis. It was the contrast with the assumption that people made in London i.e. that Remain would likely win. My daughter was surprised by the sorts of people she would have expected in London to be Remain (and who largely were) who were for Leave. Purely anecdotal. I only mention it because they got the result right unlike - as they crowed later - me, who is more interested in politics.

Interesting - although the one piece of academic analysis I have seen of the vote suggests that both London and the NW were close to par, once the tendency of younger people to vote remain and vice versa, and graduates to vote remain and vice versa, had been allowed for. So on average this would suggest that the same "type of person" would have the same probability of voting remain in either location.

Edit/ and I got it wrong, too. My brother, who runs a restaurant in the Home Counties, had told me that most of his customers were leave, but I discounted this information.

The real outlier was the former London County Council area, which voted Remain by 72% to 28%. The twenty boroughs of Outer London voted Remain by 54% to 46%. In fact, Outer London was much closer to the rest of England than it was to Inner London in terms of the way it voted. 5 Outer London boroughs voted Leave, and 5 more came close to voting Leave. Conservative boroughs in Inner London (Wandsworth, Westminster, Kensington) were almost as solid for Remain as Labour boroughs.

Doesn't surprise me - 'rich' or 'poor' the sociocultural values of London business owners and high-end professionals in Richmond and Wandsworth and artists and hipsters in Hackney and Shoreditch are very similar today.

FrancisUrquhart

PlatoSaid said:

Mark White Sky
BREAKING - After a court order preventing publication we can now reveal hate preacher Anjem Choudary guilty of inviting support for ISIS

He's in jail

Fiona Hamilton
Anjem Choudary will be sentenced for terror offences next month. He's facing 10 years jail

Well blow me down with a feather....

TCPoliticalBetting

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/16/asylum-seeker-who-won-right-to-live-in-uk-after-lib-dem-mps-camp/

Sean_F

PClipp said:

grabcocque said:

But in truth, it wasn't changing the Tories, more changing them *back*. Back to governing from the centre, where elections are won and lost.

Hardly that, Mr Coque. The Tories under May have reverted to their true type. Hard, uncaring, selfish, spiteful... about as nasty as even you could wish for.

One certainly hopes so.

SouthamObserver

TOPPING said:

theakes said:

Mike, once the contest is over and the May honeymoon breaks up into normal domestic political disharmony all this will change. Whoever wins and the polling evidence that matters, ie Labour members, says its 2 -1 or more for Corbyn, the party will find a way to unite.
What intrigues me is that generally speaking the current voting in local by elections does not appear to support the "May honeymoon" and indeed the Labours vote is really no worse than it was in those wards 2, 3, 4 years ago, in some cases better
To me Owen Smith comes across as out of his depth, is he just a stalking horse?.

I think this is right - just at the moment when people truly believe we are at the end of history, it takes another turn and chugs on. I think that Lab people want Smith now, who would then fall on his sword nobly and let some other candidates in...Jarvis..Umunna..whoever.

Whether Smith is signed up to this we shall see. It is slightly taking liberties with a great office of state but desperate times...

I could not possibly comment ;-)

bigjohnowls

Will give a few more thoughts later but have a train to catch with Jezza

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Owls, at least you're not going on a motorbike tour of East Germany with him...

Mr. M, suicide methods (of a ritual nature) can be quite interesting. Hannibal topped himself with poison he kept in a ring, I think.

Sean_F

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

IanB2 said:

Cyclefree said:

FPT (in response to @IanB2)




Nevertheless, if your family reported nearly everyone they met in the NW being leave, then either they weren't in fact meeting a representative cross-section, or people weren't being entirely straight.

Probably true. They weren't doing any sort of analysis. It was the contrast with the assumption that people made in London i.e. that Remain would likely win. My daughter was surprised by the sorts of people she would have expected in London to be Remain (and who largely were) who were for Leave. Purely anecdotal. I only mention it because they got the result right unlike - as they crowed later - me, who is more interested in politics.

Interesting - although the one piece of academic analysis I have seen of the vote suggests that both London and the NW were close to par, once the tendency of younger people to vote remain and vice versa, and graduates to vote remain and vice versa, had been allowed for. So on average this would suggest that the same "type of person" would have the same probability of voting remain in either location.

Edit/ and I got it wrong, too. My brother, who runs a restaurant in the Home Counties, had told me that most of his customers were leave, but I discounted this information.

The real outlier was the former London County Council area, which voted Remain by 72% to 28%. The twenty boroughs of Outer London voted Remain by 54% to 46%. In fact, Outer London was much closer to the rest of England than it was to Inner London in terms of the way it voted. 5 Outer London boroughs voted Leave, and 5 more came close to voting Leave. Conservative boroughs in Inner London (Wandsworth, Westminster, Kensington) were almost as solid for Remain as Labour boroughs.

Doesn't surprise me - 'rich' or 'poor' the sociocultural values of London business owners and high-end professionals in Richmond and Wandsworth and artists and hipsters in Hackney and Shoreditch are very similar today.

My understanding is that Conservative Party councillors and activists in Putney, Battersea, and Tooting were quite heavily in favour of Leave, but they were clearly out of line with their voters.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Even 18-24 year olds may not be as solid for Corbyn as these figures suggest. What's striking about sub-samples for this group is that they are generally massively more left wing, and massively more pro-EU, than the country as a whole, but with such a small sub-sample, pollsters may be picking up a very politicised, but unrepresentatively left wing, group of young people.

Though it's politicised young people who bother to vote. So more representative of young voters than the young populace as a whole.

I'm struck though, by the big difference in attitudes between 18-24 year olds, OTOH, and 25-39 year olds, on the other in polling. Perhaps it is simply the experience of working and starting families that causes a marked shift in attitudes.

Who has a bad word to say about the EU whilst you are at school or at uni?

It's about backpacking, Erasmus, learning languages, seeing the world and you're fresh from the full-faced state school/uni lecturer taught EU propaganda.

This was probably not dissimilar for the same age groups back in 1999/2000 - pro euro sentiment was equally strong from people who, now, only voted to Remain in the whole thing by 55/45.

People start to become eurosceptic when they start to have experience of how it works, and what it does.

JosiasJessop

bigjohnowls said:

Will give a few more thoughts later but have a train to catch with Jezza

You mean he's supporting the EVVIIIILLLL privatised railway by travelling on it? I hope he gives tips to the repressed staff he meets.

Which line is he travelling on? Matlock to Derby? If so, give a wave to Whatstandwell and Cromford for me. A beautiful area.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

Jonathan said:

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

SimonStClare said:

‘58% to 42% think Smith would make best leader’

I doubt the majority of Labour members give a jot what the rest of the country thinks. They’re uneligible to vote, are all Murdoch lackeys etc and besides, they’re all wrong. - Cont Pg 94.

WHY DOESN'T THE ELECTORATE JUST GO JOIN THE TORIES?!

Given elections since 1979 they generally do (if you count Blair as tory)

Which is isn't, so you can't.

Well ask the typical labour party member at the moment and you might get a different answer..

You might. Doesn't make it true.

It is interesting how both the Labour left and the Conservatives conspire to airbrush the fact that Blair not only defeated he Tories he utterly eviscerated them to the point that they had to change dramatically to get back into power.

Oh well.

I do think that in the long run, Blair did immense damage to his own party, by causing it to wither and die in many of its heartlands. While his government was not a Conservative one, it did appear so, on economic issues, to Labour voters in Scotland, and in a lot of working class districts. At the same time, the left wing and pro-EU policies which his government implemented were very much the concerns of the Inner London left. They either left many Labour voters in the provinces cold, or alienated them.

That's not to say that Corbyn is the answer to Labour's woes, but nor is a return to Blairism.

At times, I felt we'd gone back to Blairism under Cameron.

But I think education reform, welfare reform, cutting corporation tax, prioritising infrastructure, and a tinsy bit of immigration reform were key differences.

In the last year before the referendum I couldn't work out what George Osborne's strategy was, other than to tactically sock it to Labour and try and guarantee his ascent to the premiership.

Richard_Nabavi

bigjohnowls said:

Rally over. The Messiah has given hope.

Hope that he'll resign?

Sean_F

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

IanB2 said:

Cyclefree said:

FPT (in response to @IanB2)




Nevertheless, if your family reported nearly everyone they met in the NW being leave, then either they weren't in fact meeting a representative cross-section, or people weren't being entirely straight.

Probably true. They weren't doing any sort of analysis. It was the contrast with the assumption that people made in London i.e. that Remain would likely win. My daughter was surprised by the sorts of people she would have expected in London to be Remain (and who largely were) who were for Leave. Purely anecdotal. I only mention it because they got the result right unlike - as they crowed later - me, who is more interested in politics.

Interesting - although the one piece of academic analysis I have seen of the vote suggests that both London and the NW were close to par, once the tendency of younger people to vote remain and vice versa, and graduates to vote remain and vice versa, had been allowed for. So on average this would suggest that the same "type of person" would have the same probability of voting remain in either location.

Edit/ and I got it wrong, too. My brother, who runs a restaurant in the Home Counties, had told me that most of his customers were leave, but I discounted this information.

The real outlier was the former London County Council area, which voted Remain by 72% to 28%. The twenty boroughs of Outer London voted Remain by 54% to 46%. In fact, Outer London was much closer to the rest of England than it was to Inner London in terms of the way it voted. 5 Outer London boroughs voted Leave, and 5 more came close to voting Leave. Conservative boroughs in Inner London (Wandsworth, Westminster, Kensington) were almost as solid for Remain as Labour boroughs.

Doesn't surprise me - 'rich' or 'poor' the sociocultural values of London business owners and high-end professionals in Richmond and Wandsworth and artists and hipsters in Hackney and Shoreditch are very similar today.

Richmond, along with Haringey, were extensions of Inner London in the EU referendum vote.

PlatoSaid

Golly the Irish lad has given the Russian a right old clip in the boxing. Blood all over both.

The Irish guy has lost, he's very unhappy about it. Commentators can't understand the decision either.

IanB2

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

IanB2 said:

Cyclefree said:

FPT (in response to @IanB2)




Nevertheless, if your family reported nearly everyone they met in the NW being leave, then either they weren't in fact meeting a representative cross-section, or people weren't being entirely straight.

Probably true. They weren't doing any sort of analysis. It was the contrast with the assumption that people made in London i.e. that Remain would likely win. My daughter was surprised by the sorts of people she would have expected in London to be Remain (and who largely were) who were for Leave. Purely anecdotal. I only mention it because they got the result right unlike - as they crowed later - me, who is more interested in politics.

Interesting - although the one piece of academic analysis I have seen of the vote suggests that both London and the NW were close to par, once the tendency of younger people to vote remain and vice versa, and graduates to vote remain and vice versa, had been allowed for. So on average this would suggest that the same "type of person" would have the same probability of voting remain in either location.

Edit/ and I got it wrong, too. My brother, who runs a restaurant in the Home Counties, had told me that most of his customers were leave, but I discounted this information.

The real outlier was the former London County Council area, which voted Remain by 72% to 28%. The twenty boroughs of Outer London voted Remain by 54% to 46%. In fact, Outer London was much closer to the rest of England than it was to Inner London in terms of the way it voted. 5 Outer London boroughs voted Leave, and 5 more came close to voting Leave. Conservative boroughs in Inner London (Wandsworth, Westminster, Kensington) were almost as solid for Remain as Labour boroughs.

All true. But then I suggest the proportion of graduates is significantly higher amongst inner London residents than in the suburbs, with the proportion of pensioners significantly lower. So the model probably holds.

Luckyguy1983

Who is Smith? How has anyone heard of him? I read PB, and I've barely heard of him.

FrancisUrquhart

Choudary and his co-defendant, Mohammed Rahman, 33, told their supporters to obey Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Isis leader,

They were convicted in July but details of the trial, including the verdict, could not be reported until now.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/aug/16/anjem-choudary-convicted-of-supporting-islamic-state

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 1983, he was tasked with rewriting history, according to Orwell.

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

IanB2 said:

Cyclefree said:

FPT (in response to @IanB2)




Nevertheless, if your family reported nearly everyone they met in the NW being leave, then either they weren't in fact meeting a representative cross-section, or people weren't being entirely straight.

Probably true. They weren't doing any sort of analysis. It was the contrast with the assumption that people made in London i.e. that Remain would likely win. My daughter was surprised by the sorts of people she would have expected in London to be Remain (and who largely were) who were for Leave. Purely anecdotal. I only mention it because they got the result right unlike - as they crowed later - me, who is more interested in politics.

Interesting - although the one piece of academic analysis I have seen of the vote suggests that both London and the NW were close to par, once the tendency of younger people to vote remain and vice versa, and graduates to vote remain and vice versa, had been allowed for. So on average this would suggest that the same "type of person" would have the same probability of voting remain in either location.

Edit/ and I got it wrong, too. My brother, who runs a restaurant in the Home Counties, had told me that most of his customers were leave, but I discounted this information.

The real outlier was the former London County Council area, which voted Remain by 72% to 28%. The twenty boroughs of Outer London voted Remain by 54% to 46%. In fact, Outer London was much closer to the rest of England than it was to Inner London in terms of the way it voted. 5 Outer London boroughs voted Leave, and 5 more came close to voting Leave. Conservative boroughs in Inner London (Wandsworth, Westminster, Kensington) were almost as solid for Remain as Labour boroughs.

All true. But then I suggest the proportion of graduates is significantly higher amongst inner London residents than in the suburbs, with the proportion of pensioners significantly lower. So the model probably holds.

I think it's more a case of Inner London having its own very distinct political culture. It has a huge number of very wealthy people, very trendy people, people either working in government, or in those parts of the private sector that work closely with government, and the City. In no other part of the country did you find 12 contiguous boroughs going 72% for Remain.

FrancisUrquhart

I wonder why reporting restrictions for so long even after the verdicts?