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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reason Theresa May is rating so well, even amongst LAB voters, is that she exudes competence

Yesterday’s shock leader satisfaction ratings from Ipsos MORI that had May with net a positive from LAB voters while Corbyn was given a net negative by the same segment was totally unprecedented. Generally people respond to leader ratings on party basis.

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RobD

First, like May

JohnLoony

Seven Billionth!

RobD

JohnLoony said:

Seven Billionth!

Very close

Charles

RobD said:

JohnLoony said:

Seven Billionth!

Very close

Only 1 digit and 1 decimal place out...

RobD

Given PB's pechant for discussing Hinkley...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/17/britain-should-leap-frog-hinkley-and-lead-21st-century-nuclear-r/

AlastairMeeks

I agree. Theresa May hasn't actually done very much so far. When she does, her ratings will go down.

Mind you, neither potential Labour leader will be causing her sleepless nights. If she screws up, she will do it all by herself.

foxinsoxuk

AlastairMeeks said:

I agree. Theresa May hasn't actually done very much so far. When she does, her ratings will go down.

Mind you, neither potential Labour leader will be causing her sleepless nights. If she screws up, she will do it all by herself.

Mostly she is looking competent because the opposition are a bunch of clowns poking each other with sharp sticks, anyone would look competent next to Labour.

She cannot do nothing for much longer and is going to have to own the chaos of Fox, Johnson and Davies feuding over Brexit.

DavidL

Yep, pretty hard to disagree with any of this. But the in tray is pretty full and there are a series of tough and potentially unpopular decisions to be made, some of which have been deferred for far too long already.

She needs to give the go ahead for expansion at Heathrow and probably Gatwick as well. A country that is open to the world for business cannot keep restricting its airport capacity.

She needs to make a decision about Hinkley C. It looks a really crap deal negotiated at a time when all the experts saw energy costs rising indefinitely. If she is not persuaded that is likely any more she needs to find an alternative and fast.

She needs to work out what her economic strategy is. If we are giving up on Osborne's plan to eliminate or at least consistently bear down on the deficit what is the alternative?

She needs to work out what her policy is on education. Are we really going down the grammar school cul de sac again, are we carrying on with the Gove reforms or are we doing something else?

She needs to focus above all on Brexit because the decisions there will impact on everything else. Leaving it to incompetents like Fox or Davis is not a good plan and will not assist in getting certainty quickly which is what is required.

Governing is hard and her ratings will come down fast enough.

Jonathan

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

rcs1000

DavidL said:

She needs to make a decision about Hinkley C. It looks a really crap deal negotiated at a time when all the experts saw energy costs rising indefinitely. If she is not persuaded that is likely any more she needs to find an alternative and fast.

There is no need for an alternative. If HPC is cancelled, then we will see - without any need for government 'planning' - continued investment in CCGTs, wind, and solar.

Indeed, the only planning that government could sensibly do in this area, is to mandate that new homes come with building integrated solar.

DavidL

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

She needs to make a decision about Hinkley C. It looks a really crap deal negotiated at a time when all the experts saw energy costs rising indefinitely. If she is not persuaded that is likely any more she needs to find an alternative and fast.

There is no need for an alternative. If HPC is cancelled, then we will see - without any need for government 'planning' - continued investment in CCGTs, wind, and solar.

Indeed, the only planning that government could sensibly do in this area, is to mandate that new homes come with building integrated solar.

The rapidly reducing cost of solar in particular is why HPC looks such a poor deal now. It involves buying future energy at a cost that might actually inhibit investment in the UK. But again if we are to be open for business we need to show we have all the base load required for heavy industry at an internationally competitive price. I am not sure we are there at the moment.

PlatoSaid

Out of curiosity, is geothermal at all cost effective? A neighbour of mine went the whole hog yrs ago and did his barn conversion with water pipes buried way down too.

No idea if it worked well. Or at all.

AlastairMeeks

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

At the risk of an enforced stint in Conservative Home, her apparent penchant for micromanaging does suggest that her polling may follow Brownian motions.

JosiasJessop

More news on the Garden Bridge:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37112199

Speaking to BBC Newsnight, Thomas Heatherwick said scrapping the bridge would indicate that "we have suddenly have no confidence in ourselves".

No, Mr. Heatherwick. It means we have no confidence in your ability to design something that is fit for purpose (in fact, any purpose except self-aggrandisement) and anywhere near cost-effective.

However, he (Lord Davies) insisted the project had "momentum" and that the trust was confident it could raise the outstanding funds. "This is an iconic project. It does sum up what's great about Britain."

FFS. In Lord Davies eyes, having no meaningful purpose and being massively over-expensive sums up what is great about Britain. No wonder: he was a Labour minister and used to be in finance.

Lord Davies is the Garden Bridge!

david_herdson

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

Yes. Honeymoons wear off and no doubt May's will once she has to start making hard and unpopular decisions, and once the government screws up over something. But for all that, there's a middle ground of voters who'll distinguish between someone who tries to govern in the right way and is usually capable of doing so, and someone who game-plays or is just not very good. The odd mistake will be forgiven, as will a few tough decisions, if the rationale at least appears sensible.

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

At the risk of an enforced stint in Conservative Home, her apparent penchant for micromanaging does suggest that her polling may follow Brownian motions.

Agreed. One of Cameron's strengths was letting his ministers get on with it. That meant that they made mistakes from time to time but better that than the paralysis that Brown induced by insisting that every decision had to come by him.

Essexit

Is there a group of voters who identify as Labour but are assuming that Corbyn won't actually be the leader when it comes to election time? This would help to explain his negative ratings among declared Labour voters.

The question then is what these people will do if there is an election and he's still 'leading' the party.

ydoethur

DavidL said:

She needs to work out what her policy is on education. Are we really going down the grammar school cul de sac again, are we carrying on with the Gove reforms or are we doing something else?

Doing nothing would be quite a good option. For the last twenty years we've had change after change after change, mostly done with an eye to the tabloid headlines rather than in the interests of teaching children, and a period of calm to let the dust settle for ten years would be a really good idea.

Of course if she wanted to drive up standards, reduce teacher workload and save large sums of money she could abolish OFSTED and the DfES. But given that they are in London and have the Cabinet's ears next to them that will unfortunately never happen.

AlastairMeeks

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

At the risk of an enforced stint in Conservative Home, her apparent penchant for micromanaging does suggest that her polling may follow Brownian motions.

Agreed. One of Cameron's strengths was letting his ministers get on with it. That meant that they made mistakes from time to time but better that than the paralysis that Brown induced by insisting that every decision had to come by him.

David Cameron was uniquely good among Prime Ministers in my lifetime for the deployment of his ministers. He followed the simple but previously untried approach of letting ministers get familiar with their jobs and then trusting them. It meant that he got the utmost out of quite limited resources.

ydoethur

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

At the risk of an enforced stint in Conservative Home, her apparent penchant for micromanaging does suggest that her polling may follow Brownian motions.

Agreed. One of Cameron's strengths was letting his ministers get on with it. That meant that they made mistakes from time to time but better that than the paralysis that Brown induced by insisting that every decision had to come by him.

Eden was infamous for exactly the same problem. It both caused Suez and nearly killed him.

Re Labour voters, I think it shows rather more just how deep loyalty to the Labour Party runs. It also suggests that the situation is still salvageable if only Corbyn can be removed.

That's the snag, of course..,

ydoethur

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

At the risk of an enforced stint in Conservative Home, her apparent penchant for micromanaging does suggest that her polling may follow Brownian motions.

Agreed. One of Cameron's strengths was letting his ministers get on with it. That meant that they made mistakes from time to time but better that than the paralysis that Brown induced by insisting that every decision had to come by him.

David Cameron was uniquely good among Prime Ministers in my lifetime for the deployment of his ministers. He followed the simple but previously untried approach of letting ministers get familiar with their jobs and then trusting them. It meant that he got the utmost out of quite limited resources.

The last PM to try that approach was Baldwin. It worked for him too. Attlee could be more ruthless, although he tried to find square pegs for square holes - and the rest, well...

AlastairMeeks

Out of interest, when is the inevitable David Cameron autobiography likely to emerge? Would it be reasonable to assume an autumn 2017 publication date, timed to coincide with the Conservative party conference?

DavidL

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

She needs to work out what her policy is on education. Are we really going down the grammar school cul de sac again, are we carrying on with the Gove reforms or are we doing something else?

Doing nothing would be quite a good option. For the last twenty years we've had change after change after change, mostly done with an eye to the tabloid headlines rather than in the interests of teaching children, and a period of calm to let the dust settle for ten years would be a really good idea.

Of course if she wanted to drive up standards, reduce teacher workload and save large sums of money she could abolish OFSTED and the DfES. But given that they are in London and have the Cabinet's ears next to them that will unfortunately never happen.

Whilst I can see all the flaws of permanent revolution and unending uncertainty decisions do need to be made about the Academy program and whether it is to be expanded in the way currently planned. I can see the argument for drawing back and letting our current status quo continuing but local authorities need to know.

Similarly, there are issues about how Academies are monitored and held to account and that does require DfES to get its hands dirty. The assumption that everything is great about Academy status will prove to be wrong, there are no magic bullets in education.

I don't know enough about it but it seems as an outsider that there are major issues with exam boards in England as well and that competition between them has been a major factor in grade inflation.

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

Out of interest, when is the inevitable David Cameron autobiography likely to emerge? Would it be reasonable to assume an autumn 2017 publication date, timed to coincide with the Conservative party conference?

That might depend on what he chooses to do next. He is pretty young for an ex PM and may well be looking for a major international appointment to round off his career.

PlatoSaid

Are 5000 clearing places at Russell Groups unis usually available?

JosiasJessop

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

At the risk of an enforced stint in Conservative Home, her apparent penchant for micromanaging does suggest that her polling may follow Brownian motions.

Agreed. One of Cameron's strengths was letting his ministers get on with it. That meant that they made mistakes from time to time but better that than the paralysis that Brown induced by insisting that every decision had to come by him.

Cameron was also quite fortunate: he did not have too many events to derail ministers; he had the coalition to make reshuffles more difficult than usual; and many good MPs to choose from.

TOPPING

Not on any sort of topic, just read the reports in the international papers raising their eyebrows at Team GB success and indeed on paper, it seems suspicious.

But you only need to hear Mr & Mrs Trott speaking for 0.1secs to realise that the charge of drug taking is absurd.

ydoethur

PlatoSaid said:

Are 5000 clearing places at Russell Groups unis usually available?

They've lifted the cap on recruitment, so they can in theory take as many as they like. So if somebody has done unexpectedly well they can upgrade.

Just got mine through and all of them were at least one grade above predictions, which would be rather nice if I weren't still gutted that a couple who had really worked hard and deserved a reward for that got Ds rather than Cs.

rcs1000

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

She needs to make a decision about Hinkley C. It looks a really crap deal negotiated at a time when all the experts saw energy costs rising indefinitely. If she is not persuaded that is likely any more she needs to find an alternative and fast.

There is no need for an alternative. If HPC is cancelled, then we will see - without any need for government 'planning' - continued investment in CCGTs, wind, and solar.

Indeed, the only planning that government could sensibly do in this area, is to mandate that new homes come with building integrated solar.

The rapidly reducing cost of solar in particular is why HPC looks such a poor deal now. It involves buying future energy at a cost that might actually inhibit investment in the UK. But again if we are to be open for business we need to show we have all the base load required for heavy industry at an internationally competitive price. I am not sure we are there at the moment.

Buying base load power at £100/MWh is not internationally competitive. CCGTs produce all in at perhaps £40.

SquareRoot

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

Yes but he was stage managed, most knew what a nasty piece of work he was and the veneer slipped off pretty fast. Mrs May has no such back history, and is seemed as v nice and charming

You could never have said that about Brown.

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

PlatoSaid said:

Are 5000 clearing places at Russell Groups unis usually available?

They've lifted the cap on recruitment, so they can in theory take as many as they like. So if somebody has done unexpectedly well they can upgrade.

Just got mine through and all of them were at least one grade above predictions, which would be rather nice if I weren't still gutted that a couple who had really worked hard and deserved a reward for that got Ds rather than Cs.

Just a minute. Your expectation for those two was E but you thought they’d really deserved a C?

DavidL

ydoethur said:

PlatoSaid said:

Are 5000 clearing places at Russell Groups unis usually available?

They've lifted the cap on recruitment, so they can in theory take as many as they like. So if somebody has done unexpectedly well they can upgrade.

Just got mine through and all of them were at least one grade above predictions, which would be rather nice if I weren't still gutted that a couple who had really worked hard and deserved a reward for that got Ds rather than Cs.

Well done you. Something to be really proud of.

TOPPING

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

Yes but he was stage managed, most knew what a nasty piece of work he was and the veneer slipped off pretty fast. Mrs May has no such back history, and is seemed as v nice and charming

You could never have said that about Brown.

That is true. The impression is of quiet, ruthless even efficiency. But as @AlastairMeeks has noted, she is a micromanager and that is all very well (not ideal) as SoS but is an unknown quantity in a PM. Then again, perhaps she thinks she can and will be up to managing personally every department. Unlikely, but possible.

She has appointed the three clowns to Brexit and they are already fighting like cats in a sack, so it seems as though she has no intention of letting them "get on with it". All very well for Brexit (and understandable, given its importance and that she will be defined by it).

But for government as a whole? We shall see.

DavidL

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

She needs to make a decision about Hinkley C. It looks a really crap deal negotiated at a time when all the experts saw energy costs rising indefinitely. If she is not persuaded that is likely any more she needs to find an alternative and fast.

There is no need for an alternative. If HPC is cancelled, then we will see - without any need for government 'planning' - continued investment in CCGTs, wind, and solar.

Indeed, the only planning that government could sensibly do in this area, is to mandate that new homes come with building integrated solar.

The rapidly reducing cost of solar in particular is why HPC looks such a poor deal now. It involves buying future energy at a cost that might actually inhibit investment in the UK. But again if we are to be open for business we need to show we have all the base load required for heavy industry at an internationally competitive price. I am not sure we are there at the moment.

Buying base load power at £100/MWh is not internationally competitive. CCGTs produce all in at perhaps £40.

Oh I agree. But a big cancellation like this will need some positive spinning if the post Brexit uncertainty is not to be aggravated.

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

PlatoSaid said:

Are 5000 clearing places at Russell Groups unis usually available?

They've lifted the cap on recruitment, so they can in theory take as many as they like. So if somebody has done unexpectedly well they can upgrade.

Just got mine through and all of them were at least one grade above predictions, which would be rather nice if I weren't still gutted that a couple who had really worked hard and deserved a reward for that got Ds rather than Cs.

Just a minute. Your expectation for those two was E but you thought they’d really deserved a C?

When students start A-levels they are given various aptitude tests to see what a 'natural' grade would be. That came out as E, but since then they have worked incredibly hard and improved massively. So I felt a D was, if an improvement on official expectations, still a bit disappointing and I know they will be disappointed too.

These test grades incidentally are also used in the new league tables to measure progress - the more grades a student rises on them, the better the teacher and the school scores.

ydoethur

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

PlatoSaid said:

Are 5000 clearing places at Russell Groups unis usually available?

They've lifted the cap on recruitment, so they can in theory take as many as they like. So if somebody has done unexpectedly well they can upgrade.

Just got mine through and all of them were at least one grade above predictions, which would be rather nice if I weren't still gutted that a couple who had really worked hard and deserved a reward for that got Ds rather than Cs.

Well done you. Something to be really proud of.

Thanks. But let's not forget that the real credit goes to the students. I had some good ones this year.

Here's fingers crossed for @Cyclefree's youngest as well.

malcolmg

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

Yes. Honeymoons wear off and no doubt May's will once she has to start making hard and unpopular decisions, and once the government screws up over something. But for all that, there's a middle ground of voters who'll distinguish between someone who tries to govern in the right way and is usually capable of doing so, and someone who game-plays or is just not very good. The odd mistake will be forgiven, as will a few tough decisions, if the rationale at least appears sensible.

She will dither and do as little as possible, she prefers to do nothing and not fail, it will end in tears.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

another_richard

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

At the risk of an enforced stint in Conservative Home, her apparent penchant for micromanaging does suggest that her polling may follow Brownian motions.

Agreed. One of Cameron's strengths was letting his ministers get on with it. That meant that they made mistakes from time to time but better that than the paralysis that Brown induced by insisting that every decision had to come by him.

David Cameron was uniquely good among Prime Ministers in my lifetime for the deployment of his ministers. He followed the simple but previously untried approach of letting ministers get familiar with their jobs and then trusting them. It meant that he got the utmost out of quite limited resources.

It was Osborne who did the meddling not Cameron.

eek

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

She needs to make a decision about Hinkley C. It looks a really crap deal negotiated at a time when all the experts saw energy costs rising indefinitely. If she is not persuaded that is likely any more she needs to find an alternative and fast.

There is no need for an alternative. If HPC is cancelled, then we will see - without any need for government 'planning' - continued investment in CCGTs, wind, and solar.

Indeed, the only planning that government could sensibly do in this area, is to mandate that new homes come with building integrated solar.

The rapidly reducing cost of solar in particular is why HPC looks such a poor deal now. It involves buying future energy at a cost that might actually inhibit investment in the UK. But again if we are to be open for business we need to show we have all the base load required for heavy industry at an internationally competitive price. I am not sure we are there at the moment.

Buying base load power at £100/MWh is not internationally competitive. CCGTs produce all in at perhaps £40.

Oh I agree. But a big cancellation like this will need some positive spinning if the post Brexit uncertainty is not to be aggravated.

Why? As I stated earlier this week the reason it should be cancelled is that EDF cannot point at a single power station of this design that is actually working and generating power - the problem is that telling the truth is really going to annoy the French...

IanB2

Essexit said:

Is there a group of voters who identify as Labour but are assuming that Corbyn won't actually be the leader when it comes to election time? This would help to explain his negative ratings among declared Labour voters.

The question then is what these people will do if there is an election and he's still 'leading' the party.

There is surely a bunch of people who aren't Tory who give a non-thinking "Labour" in answer to the pollsters - non-thinking solely in the sense that there isn't any one else prominent enough to support and we don't have to worry about the precise offer right now. It will be these people who start to waver as the election approaches and a definitive and positive choice is required.

TOPPING

another_richard said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

At the risk of an enforced stint in Conservative Home, her apparent penchant for micromanaging does suggest that her polling may follow Brownian motions.

Agreed. One of Cameron's strengths was letting his ministers get on with it. That meant that they made mistakes from time to time but better that than the paralysis that Brown induced by insisting that every decision had to come by him.

David Cameron was uniquely good among Prime Ministers in my lifetime for the deployment of his ministers. He followed the simple but previously untried approach of letting ministers get familiar with their jobs and then trusting them. It meant that he got the utmost out of quite limited resources.

It was Osborne who did the meddling not Cameron.

You were either an Osbornite or you weren't. If you were, you were part of the charmed circle that it appeared for a while was destined for the top (many did get to the top). If you were outside, it all passed you by, and you were excluded from the heart of government and unlikely to become part of it.

Rather than meddling.

DavidL

TOPPING said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

Yes but he was stage managed, most knew what a nasty piece of work he was and the veneer slipped off pretty fast. Mrs May has no such back history, and is seemed as v nice and charming

You could never have said that about Brown.

That is true. The impression is of quiet, ruthless even efficiency. But as @AlastairMeeks has noted, she is a micromanager and that is all very well (not ideal) as SoS but is an unknown quantity in a PM. Then again, perhaps she thinks she can and will be up to managing personally every department. Unlikely, but possible.

She has appointed the three clowns to Brexit and they are already fighting like cats in a sack, so it seems as though she has no intention of letting them "get on with it". All very well for Brexit (and understandable, given its importance and that she will be defined by it).

But for government as a whole? We shall see.

I am not disagreeing that she is giving that impression at the moment but her performance as Home Secretary was not that stellar. She struggled to reduce immigration, something that ultimately caused her boss to lose his job, she struggled to simplify the appeals process, to get deportation of both failed asylum seekers and criminals working effectively, she had a number of problems with G4S and other private jails and her department did not resolve the South Yorkshire Police mess in a satisfactory way.

Home Secretary is a tough job, one of the toughest in government but her main skill seemed not to be there when the buck stopped.

JosiasJessop

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

She needs to make a decision about Hinkley C. It looks a really crap deal negotiated at a time when all the experts saw energy costs rising indefinitely. If she is not persuaded that is likely any more she needs to find an alternative and fast.

There is no need for an alternative. If HPC is cancelled, then we will see - without any need for government 'planning' - continued investment in CCGTs, wind, and solar.

Indeed, the only planning that government could sensibly do in this area, is to mandate that new homes come with building integrated solar.

What are the economics of household solar in the UK at present *without* subsidies?

IanB2

TOPPING said:

Not on any sort of topic, just read the reports in the international papers raising their eyebrows at Team GB success and indeed on paper, it seems suspicious.

But you only need to hear Mr & Mrs Trott speaking for 0.1secs to realise that the charge of drug taking is absurd.

The level of single-mindedness in Uk cycling is breathtaking - everything they do is regulated, their food and drink all prescribed for them, they even take their bedding everywhere so they get the same sheets and pillows wherever they are. I would be surprised if all their rivals are the same?

TOPPING

DavidL said:

TOPPING said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

Yes but he was stage managed, most knew what a nasty piece of work he was and the veneer slipped off pretty fast. Mrs May has no such back history, and is seemed as v nice and charming

You could never have said that about Brown.

That is true. The impression is of quiet, ruthless even efficiency. But as @AlastairMeeks has noted, she is a micromanager and that is all very well (not ideal) as SoS but is an unknown quantity in a PM. Then again, perhaps she thinks she can and will be up to managing personally every department. Unlikely, but possible.

She has appointed the three clowns to Brexit and they are already fighting like cats in a sack, so it seems as though she has no intention of letting them "get on with it". All very well for Brexit (and understandable, given its importance and that she will be defined by it).

But for government as a whole? We shall see.

I am not disagreeing that she is giving that impression at the moment but her performance as Home Secretary was not that stellar. She struggled to reduce immigration, something that ultimately caused her boss to lose his job, she struggled to simplify the appeals process, to get deportation of both failed asylum seekers and criminals working effectively, she had a number of problems with G4S and other private jails and her department did not resolve the South Yorkshire Police mess in a satisfactory way.

Home Secretary is a tough job, one of the toughest in government but her main skill seemed not to be there when the buck stopped.

Yes, put like that the failings stand out as HS. But I also have to believe (I don't know) that Dave, and indeed the whole administration, must surely not have been too worried about immigration because it makes no sense for him to have been so explicit about it, and then for nothing to have happened.

Perhaps the autobiography will tell us a bit more but it doesn't add up. Either he cared and she let him down (or it was undoable, probably as likely); or he didn't care, in which case that reflects badly on him.

None of which, of course, would have mattered sans EURef.

MaxPB

ydoethur said:

PlatoSaid said:

Are 5000 clearing places at Russell Groups unis usually available?

They've lifted the cap on recruitment, so they can in theory take as many as they like. So if somebody has done unexpectedly well they can upgrade.

Just got mine through and all of them were at least one grade above predictions, which would be rather nice if I weren't still gutted that a couple who had really worked hard and deserved a reward for that got Ds rather than Cs.

Not to sound too harsh, but why did they bother with A Levels and try to go to university if their grade aptitude was so bad? Shouldn't the school have given better advice and told them to get an apprenticeship?

IanB2

AlastairMeeks said:

Out of interest, when is the inevitable David Cameron autobiography likely to emerge? Would it be reasonable to assume an autumn 2017 publication date, timed to coincide with the Conservative party conference?

There is at least one already published, which would just need a 'downfall' chapter stuck on the end.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

Not on any sort of topic, just read the reports in the international papers raising their eyebrows at Team GB success and indeed on paper, it seems suspicious.

But you only need to hear Mr & Mrs Trott speaking for 0.1secs to realise that the charge of drug taking is absurd.

The level of single-mindedness in Uk cycling is breathtaking - everything they do is regulated, their food and drink all prescribed for them, they even take their bedding everywhere so they get the same sheets and pillows wherever they are. I would be surprised if all their rivals are the same?

Yet when our cricketers did this, they were greenwashed 5-0, and the stifling culture this represented was blamed.

DavidL

eek said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

She needs to make a decision about Hinkley C. It looks a really crap deal negotiated at a time when all the experts saw energy costs rising indefinitely. If she is not persuaded that is likely any more she needs to find an alternative and fast.

There is no need for an alternative. If HPC is cancelled, then we will see - without any need for government 'planning' - continued investment in CCGTs, wind, and solar.

Indeed, the only planning that government could sensibly do in this area, is to mandate that new homes come with building integrated solar.

The rapidly reducing cost of solar in particular is why HPC looks such a poor deal now. It involves buying future energy at a cost that might actually inhibit investment in the UK. But again if we are to be open for business we need to show we have all the base load required for heavy industry at an internationally competitive price. I am not sure we are there at the moment.

Buying base load power at £100/MWh is not internationally competitive. CCGTs produce all in at perhaps £40.

Oh I agree. But a big cancellation like this will need some positive spinning if the post Brexit uncertainty is not to be aggravated.

Why? As I stated earlier this week the reason it should be cancelled is that EDF cannot point at a single power station of this design that is actually working and generating power - the problem is that telling the truth is really going to annoy the French...

HPC is set up to be the largest construction site in Europe with large numbers of UK contractors having built their work programs for the next decade around it. There are tens of thousands of future jobs affected along very long supply chains spreading the spend around the country.

This cannot determine whether this is a good idea or not but at a time when confidence has been shaken this needs some management and presentational skill. Maybe an announcement on Crossrail 2 or HS3 could be accelerated to lessen the sting.

john_zims

@TOPPING

'That is true. The impression is of quiet, ruthless even efficiency. But as @AlastairMeeks has noted, she is a micromanager and that is all very well (not ideal) as SoS but is an unknown quantity in a PM.'

If micromanaging blocks a completely an untried , enormously expensive power plant that will stuff consumers with high energy bills for decades what's not to like ?

IanB2

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

She needs to make a decision about Hinkley C. It looks a really crap deal negotiated at a time when all the experts saw energy costs rising indefinitely. If she is not persuaded that is likely any more she needs to find an alternative and fast.

There is no need for an alternative. If HPC is cancelled, then we will see - without any need for government 'planning' - continued investment in CCGTs, wind, and solar.

Indeed, the only planning that government could sensibly do in this area, is to mandate that new homes come with building integrated solar.

What are the economics of household solar in the UK at present *without* subsidies?

Solar thermal, which I have, tends to pay for itself in fifteen years (which I regard as essentially cost neutral), including the RHI payments for seven years, which in my case is about £65 a quarter. Solar PV is the one where the reduction in feed-in tariff (the amount you get paid for generating electricity for the Grid) has seriously hit the viability. However you also need a lot of appropriate roof space for that, which I did not have. My solar thermal (essentially free hot water) just needs two panels.

TOPPING

john_zims said:

@TOPPING

'That is true. The impression is of quiet, ruthless even efficiency. But as @AlastairMeeks has noted, she is a micromanager and that is all very well (not ideal) as SoS but is an unknown quantity in a PM.'

If micromanaging blocks a completely an untried , enormously expensive power plant that will stuff consumers with high energy bills for decades what's not to like ?

Lots of plates to keep spinning. Some will be hits, some misses.

ydoethur

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

PlatoSaid said:

Are 5000 clearing places at Russell Groups unis usually available?

They've lifted the cap on recruitment, so they can in theory take as many as they like. So if somebody has done unexpectedly well they can upgrade.

Just got mine through and all of them were at least one grade above predictions, which would be rather nice if I weren't still gutted that a couple who had really worked hard and deserved a reward for that got Ds rather than Cs.

Not to sound too harsh, but why did they bother with A Levels and try to go to university if their grade aptitude was so bad? Shouldn't the school have given better advice and told them to get an apprenticeship?

Can't answer that directly, sorry - I hope you will understand that there are limits to what I can say even on an anonymous forum. There were however other factors in play that I thought had been mitigated by their efforts.

Charles

JosiasJessop said:

More news on the Garden Bridge:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37112199

Speaking to BBC Newsnight, Thomas Heatherwick said scrapping the bridge would indicate that "we have suddenly have no confidence in ourselves".

No, Mr. Heatherwick. It means we have no confidence in your ability to design something that is fit for purpose (in fact, any purpose except self-aggrandisement) and anywhere near cost-effective.

However, he (Lord Davies) insisted the project had "momentum" and that the trust was confident it could raise the outstanding funds. "This is an iconic project. It does sum up what's great about Britain."

FFS. In Lord Davies eyes, having no meaningful purpose and being massively over-expensive sums up what is great about Britain. No wonder: he was a Labour minister and used to be in finance.

Lord Davies is the Garden Bridge!

It has a purpose but is not targetted to your particular interests so you don't value that.

Pulpstar

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

Not on any sort of topic, just read the reports in the international papers raising their eyebrows at Team GB success and indeed on paper, it seems suspicious.

But you only need to hear Mr & Mrs Trott speaking for 0.1secs to realise that the charge of drug taking is absurd.

The level of single-mindedness in Uk cycling is breathtaking - everything they do is regulated, their food and drink all prescribed for them, they even take their bedding everywhere so they get the same sheets and pillows wherever they are. I would be surprised if all their rivals are the same?

Yet when our cricketers did this, they were greenwashed 5-0, and the stifling culture this represented was blamed.

Hmm different sport, cycling much more about hard numbers than cricket where discipline combined with confidence is key.

IanB2

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

Not on any sort of topic, just read the reports in the international papers raising their eyebrows at Team GB success and indeed on paper, it seems suspicious.

But you only need to hear Mr & Mrs Trott speaking for 0.1secs to realise that the charge of drug taking is absurd.

The level of single-mindedness in Uk cycling is breathtaking - everything they do is regulated, their food and drink all prescribed for them, they even take their bedding everywhere so they get the same sheets and pillows wherever they are. I would be surprised if all their rivals are the same?

Yet when our cricketers did this, they were greenwashed 5-0, and the stifling culture this represented was blamed.

I guess the difference is that the training regime for top class cyclists is relentless and essentially devoid of any mental stimulation. So it must take a certain type of person to be attracted and able to cope with this in the first place. Running about playing cricket actually seems fun by comparison.

HYUFD

Indeed May looks and acts like the PM, Corbyn looks and acts like a protester not someone to be trusted with power. The fact Labour voters prefer May to Corbyn is very damaging for him, BMG this week had 2015 Labour voters split 51% for Corbyn to 49% for Smith, I still think the leadership contest could be close. Smith's ISIS remarks yesterday will not go down well with voters generally but ironically they are likely to go down rather better with the Labour membership. Corbyn's refusal to talk to ISIS is the reverse, it may help him a little with the public but not go down so well with his own core vote after all if Corbyn is not a pacifist why should they vote for him?

HYUFD

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

At the risk of an enforced stint in Conservative Home, her apparent penchant for micromanaging does suggest that her polling may follow Brownian motions.

Her polling is actually slightly better than Brown now and neither Smith nor Corbyn are a Labour Cameron

John_M

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

Not on any sort of topic, just read the reports in the international papers raising their eyebrows at Team GB success and indeed on paper, it seems suspicious.

But you only need to hear Mr & Mrs Trott speaking for 0.1secs to realise that the charge of drug taking is absurd.

The level of single-mindedness in Uk cycling is breathtaking - everything they do is regulated, their food and drink all prescribed for them, they even take their bedding everywhere so they get the same sheets and pillows wherever they are. I would be surprised if all their rivals are the same?

Yet when our cricketers did this, they were greenwashed 5-0, and the stifling culture this represented was blamed.

I guess the difference is that the training regime for top class cyclists is relentless and essentially devoid of any mental stimulation. So it must take a certain type of person to be attracted and able to cope with this in the first place. Running about playing cricket actually seems fun by comparison.

Surely the essence of team games like football and cricket is that the opponent has a wealth of ways in which they can frustrate or overcome your strategy. While cycling is obviously competitive, it's still mainly an exercise in applied bio-mechanics.

DavidL

TOPPING said:

DavidL said:

TOPPING said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

Yes but he was stage managed, most knew what a nasty piece of work he was and the veneer slipped off pretty fast. Mrs May has no such back history, and is seemed as v nice and charming

You could never have said that about Brown.

That is true. The impression is of quiet, ruthless even efficiency. But as @AlastairMeeks has noted, she is a micromanager and that is all very well (not ideal) as SoS but is an unknown quantity in a PM. Then again, perhaps she thinks she can and will be up to managing personally every department. Unlikely, but possible.

She has appointed the three clowns to Brexit and they are already fighting like cats in a sack, so it seems as though she has no intention of letting them "get on with it". All very well for Brexit (and understandable, given its importance and that she will be defined by it).

But for government as a whole? We shall see.

I am not disagreeing that she is giving that impression at the moment but her performance as Home Secretary was not that stellar. She struggled to reduce immigration, something that ultimately caused her boss to lose his job, she struggled to simplify the appeals process, to get deportation of both failed asylum seekers and criminals working effectively, she had a number of problems with G4S and other private jails and her department did not resolve the South Yorkshire Police mess in a satisfactory way.

Home Secretary is a tough job, one of the toughest in government but her main skill seemed not to be there when the buck stopped.

Yes, put like that the failings stand out as HS. But I also have to believe (I don't know) that Dave, and indeed the whole administration, must surely not have been too worried about immigration because it makes no sense for him to have been so explicit about it, and then for nothing to have happened.

Perhaps the autobiography will tell us a bit more but it doesn't add up. Either he cared and she let him down (or it was undoable, probably as likely); or he didn't care, in which case that reflects badly on him.

None of which, of course, would have mattered sans EURef.

The reality that we have discussed here before is that when you have more than a couple of million poorly integrated people from the subcontinent that wish their spouses to come from there and elderly parents or siblings to join them stopping substantial immigration requires far more draconian measures than any UK government would contemplate. Add in Osborne's jobs miracle and mass EU unemployment and the result was inevitable.

I am not really blaming May for her failure in this area. I am just questioning this perception of "ruthless efficiency".

PlatoSaid

Pulpstar said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

Not on any sort of topic, just read the reports in the international papers raising their eyebrows at Team GB success and indeed on paper, it seems suspicious.

But you only need to hear Mr & Mrs Trott speaking for 0.1secs to realise that the charge of drug taking is absurd.

The level of single-mindedness in Uk cycling is breathtaking - everything they do is regulated, their food and drink all prescribed for them, they even take their bedding everywhere so they get the same sheets and pillows wherever they are. I would be surprised if all their rivals are the same?

Yet when our cricketers did this, they were greenwashed 5-0, and the stifling culture this represented was blamed.

Hmm different sport, cycling much more about hard numbers than cricket where discipline combined with confidence is key.

I was under the impression that it was the culture shock that did for the cricket chaps, the cyclists came into it fresh.

HYUFD

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

PlatoSaid said:

Are 5000 clearing places at Russell Groups unis usually available?

They've lifted the cap on recruitment, so they can in theory take as many as they like. So if somebody has done unexpectedly well they can upgrade.

Just got mine through and all of them were at least one grade above predictions, which would be rather nice if I weren't still gutted that a couple who had really worked hard and deserved a reward for that got Ds rather than Cs.

Not to sound too harsh, but why did they bother with A Levels and try to go to university if their grade aptitude was so bad? Shouldn't the school have given better advice and told them to get an apprenticeship?

They could even become Labour leader, after all Corbyn got 2 EEs, in fact they have done slightly better

Morris_Dancer

Mr. HYUFD, in the Fallout videogame universe, a series of nuclear bunkers (Vaults) were set up to protect people in the case of a nuclear war [which happens, in that alternate reality]. However, almost all of them were secretly social experiments where weird and sometimes morally dubious things occurred to the Vault dwellers, without their consent or foreknowledge.

In the main game [early quest, not a spoiler], there's one numbered 114, I think. The computer records show the Overseer (Vault dictator) was selected based on the person least viable for the job. Labour may be Vault 114.

another_richard

TOPPING said:

another_richard said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

At the risk of an enforced stint in Conservative Home, her apparent penchant for micromanaging does suggest that her polling may follow Brownian motions.

Agreed. One of Cameron's strengths was letting his ministers get on with it. That meant that they made mistakes from time to time but better that than the paralysis that Brown induced by insisting that every decision had to come by him.

David Cameron was uniquely good among Prime Ministers in my lifetime for the deployment of his ministers. He followed the simple but previously untried approach of letting ministers get familiar with their jobs and then trusting them. It meant that he got the utmost out of quite limited resources.

It was Osborne who did the meddling not Cameron.

You were either an Osbornite or you weren't. If you were, you were part of the charmed circle that it appeared for a while was destined for the top (many did get to the top). If you were outside, it all passed you by, and you were excluded from the heart of government and unlikely to become part of it.

Rather than meddling.

In his final disastrous Budget speech Osborne announced policies which were the responsibilities of about half a dozen other departments.

FrancisUrquhart

Team GB athelete robbed at gunpoint in Rio.

IanB2

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, in the Fallout videogame universe, a series of nuclear bunkers (Vaults) were set up to protect people in the case of a nuclear war [which happens, in that alternate reality]. However, almost all of them were secretly social experiments where weird and sometimes morally dubious things occurred to the Vault dwellers, without their consent or foreknowledge.

In the main game [early quest, not a spoiler], there's one numbered 114, I think. The computer records show the Overseer (Vault dictator) was selected based on the person least viable for the job. Labour may be Vault 114.

That is a rather different field of knowledge from your usual subjects of expertise, Mr D? Surely there must be a Hannibal video game if you must get down with the kids? ;-)

HYUFD

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, in the Fallout videogame universe, a series of nuclear bunkers (Vaults) were set up to protect people in the case of a nuclear war [which happens, in that alternate reality]. However, almost all of them were secretly social experiments where weird and sometimes morally dubious things occurred to the Vault dwellers, without their consent or foreknowledge.

In the main game [early quest, not a spoiler], there's one numbered 114, I think. The computer records show the Overseer (Vault dictator) was selected based on the person least viable for the job. Labour may be Vault 114.

Yes Corbyn v Smith may well turn on who is the most incompetent

[Deleted User]

PlatoSaid said:

Out of curiosity, is geothermal at all cost effective? A neighbour of mine went the whole hog yrs ago and did his barn conversion with water pipes buried way down too.

No idea if it worked well. Or at all.

Geothermal is not the same thing as a heat pump.

Geothermal means drilling down to where there is genuinely hot water naturally (thermal spring, geyser, volcanic fissure, most of Iceland, etc). This water is then used directly to heat homes or if its REALLY hot to flash to steam in a turbine/generator. The UK is not terribly suitable for this. I believe there is one truly geothermal district heating scheme in Southampton. But it's never going to amount to much in the UK.

Heat pumps are a very different beast. They are fridges in reverse. Icy refrigerant is pumped through pipes buried underground or in ponds etc. The refrigerant gets warmer. An electrically powered scroll pump compresses the now warm refrigerant and it gets very hot. It dumps this heat via a heat exchanger into a water loop. This is circulated round your house. The energy in the hot water comes about 20% from the electricity and 80% from your pond or ground under your lawn. In that sense they can be 400% efficient! If electricity is cheap then heat pumps absolutely rock as a cost effective way to heat homes (displacing demand for gas). If electricity is expensive they may not compete with a good modern gas boiler overall.

FrancisUrquhart

Just seen racialist Britain report. One dodgy stat jumps out straight away, that black graduates earn less than other graduates.

One problem they arent comparing "like for like". Number of black peoppe at top unis is very small, due to on average inferior a-level results, therefore it isn't racialism that means they earn less it is they have worse qualifications.

Similar reason behind less black people in high profile jobs.

The question is why are some demographics do much worse at school, especially when other non-white groups do way better than average eg Indian & Chinese.

CD13

Mr Jessop,

I can only speak for the old, very generous system which I grabbed with both hands, as I'd just retired and had a small lump sum. My brother bought one recently under the much-reduced tariff but seems happy. I wouldn't have done as I'm not a committed Green.

The old system couldn't have continued. My system will have paid for itself by next year, and earlier this year, I had an offer from a company who offered to give me a lump sum (almost what I paid) to have the feed-in tariffs in the future. I would continue to benefit from the electricity and they would cover any future maintenance costs.

I refused it.

We greedys still toast the innocent stupidity of Mr Miliband. Good on yer, Ed.

HYUFD

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just seen racialist Britain report. One dodgy stat jumps out straight away, that black graduates earn less than other graduates.

One problem they arent comparing "like for like". Number of black peoppe at top unis is very small, due to on average inferior a-level results, therefore it isn't racialism that means they earn less it is they have worse qualifications.

Though more black pupils go to university now as a percentage than the white working class

Essexit

another_richard said:

TOPPING said:

another_richard said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

At the risk of an enforced stint in Conservative Home, her apparent penchant for micromanaging does suggest that her polling may follow Brownian motions.

Agreed. One of Cameron's strengths was letting his ministers get on with it. That meant that they made mistakes from time to time but better that than the paralysis that Brown induced by insisting that every decision had to come by him.

David Cameron was uniquely good among Prime Ministers in my lifetime for the deployment of his ministers. He followed the simple but previously untried approach of letting ministers get familiar with their jobs and then trusting them. It meant that he got the utmost out of quite limited resources.

It was Osborne who did the meddling not Cameron.

You were either an Osbornite or you weren't. If you were, you were part of the charmed circle that it appeared for a while was destined for the top (many did get to the top). If you were outside, it all passed you by, and you were excluded from the heart of government and unlikely to become part of it.

Rather than meddling.

In his final disastrous Budget speech Osborne announced policies which were the responsibilities of about half a dozen other departments.

Remembering how awful Osborne is/was now. That his reward for being a mediocre Chancellor and his outrageous conduct during the referendum campaign was the highest honour in the land still makes me seethe with anger.

ydoethur

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just seen racialist Britain report. One dodgy stat jumps out straight away, that black graduates earn less than other graduates.

One problem they arent comparing "like for like". Number of black peoppe at top unis is very small, due to on average inferior a-level results, therefore it isn't racialism that means they earn less it is they have worse qualifications.

Though more black pupils go to university now as a percentage than the white working class

Both those statistics being a fairly shocking indictment of the state of far too many of our schools.

Working in Cannock, which is hardly a hotbed of prosperity and high achievement, I keep reminding myself that I am still facing a far less difficult task than I did in Bristol.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. B2, alas, most games with that sort of history are strategy games and PC-only (though, happily, there do seem to be a couple for the PS4).

Mr. Urquhart, a good point. There was also one about black people being more likely to be victims of homicide, but without mapping the distribution of such incidents and then looking at the ethnic composition of those areas, it's worthless. If black people are 50% of the population in gun-heavy areas, 33% of gunshot victims being black is actually under-representation. If black people are 8% of the population in gun-heavy areas, 33% of gunshot victims being black is massive over-representation.

John_M

Patrick said:

PlatoSaid said:

Out of curiosity, is geothermal at all cost effective? A neighbour of mine went the whole hog yrs ago and did his barn conversion with water pipes buried way down too.

No idea if it worked well. Or at all.

Geothermal is not the same thing as a heat pump.

Geothermal means drilling down to where there is genuinely hot water naturally (thermal spring, geyser, volcanic fissure, most of Iceland, etc). This water is then used directly to heat homes or if its REALLY hot to flash to steam in a turbine/generator. The UK is not terribly suitable for this. I believe there is one truly geothermal district heating scheme in Southampton. But it's never going to amount to much in the UK.

Heat pumps are a very different beast. They are fridges in reverse. Icy refrigerant is pumped through pipes buried underground or in ponds etc. The refrigerant gets warmer. An electrically powered scroll pump compresses the now warm refrigerant and it gets very hot. It dumps this heat via a heat exchanger into a water loop. This is circulated round your house. The energy in the hot water comes about 20% from the electricity and 80% from your pond or ground under your lawn. In that sense they can be 400% efficient! If electricity is cheap then heat pumps absolutely rock as a cost effective way to heat homes (displacing demand for gas). If electricity is expensive they may not compete with a good modern gas boiler overall.

One additional point, heat or air pumps generally produce low intensity heat, so really suited for underfloor heating.

One gem I picked up from my reading around on heat pumps and low carbon residential in general was that mean internal winter temperatures in 1970 were 12C, now they're 17.5C. Wonder if that has any bearing on our overall weight gains?

ydoethur

Essexit said:

another_richard said:

TOPPING said:

another_richard said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

At the risk of an enforced stint in Conservative Home, her apparent penchant for micromanaging does suggest that her polling may follow Brownian motions.

Agreed. One of Cameron's strengths was letting his ministers get on with it. That meant that they made mistakes from time to time but better that than the paralysis that Brown induced by insisting that every decision had to come by him.

David Cameron was uniquely good among Prime Ministers in my lifetime for the deployment of his ministers. He followed the simple but previously untried approach of letting ministers get familiar with their jobs and then trusting them. It meant that he got the utmost out of quite limited resources.

It was Osborne who did the meddling not Cameron.

You were either an Osbornite or you weren't. If you were, you were part of the charmed circle that it appeared for a while was destined for the top (many did get to the top). If you were outside, it all passed you by, and you were excluded from the heart of government and unlikely to become part of it.

Rather than meddling.

In his final disastrous Budget speech Osborne announced policies which were the responsibilities of about half a dozen other departments.

Remembering how awful Osborne is/was now. That his reward for being a mediocre Chancellor and his outrageous conduct during the referendum campaign was the highest honour in the land still makes me seethe with anger.

Wouldn't have said a CH was higher than a peerage, or even the Order of Merit.

(Just to be clear, I don't think he deserved anything either.)

FrancisUrquhart

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just seen racialist Britain report. One dodgy stat jumps out straight away, that black graduates earn less than other graduates.

One problem they arent comparing "like for like". Number of black peoppe at top unis is very small, due to on average inferior a-level results, therefore it isn't racialism that means they earn less it is they have worse qualifications.

Though more black pupils go to university now as a percentage than the white working class

Sure. But they aren't comparing that. As I added on my OP the real question is why some groups excel at school & others dont. WWC kids are going baxkwards, first wave of Polish kids are doing well. Black kids below average, Chinese / Indian kids way above.

I guess we aren't allowed that discussion because it's racialist, instead they reports just exaggerate grievances & the level of racism & the proposed solution will be positive discrimination rather than addressing the underlying issues.

HYUFD

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just seen racialist Britain report. One dodgy stat jumps out straight away, that black graduates earn less than other graduates.

One problem they arent comparing "like for like". Number of black peoppe at top unis is very small, due to on average inferior a-level results, therefore it isn't racialism that means they earn less it is they have worse qualifications.

Similar reason behind less black people in high profile jobs.

The question is why are some demographics do much worse at school, especially when other non-white groups do way better than average eg Indian & Chinese.

Not many whites, Indians or Chinese in the Olympic 100m final on Sunday though

JosiasJessop

Charles said:

It has a purpose but is not targetted to your particular interests so you don't value that.

No Charles.

I love the countryside. I love engineering. I like grand projects. I love London's parks, which are the capital's under-appreciated jewels.

You will see me raving (*) about these topics all too often on PB.

Yet despite all that, I am against the Garden Bridge. Perhaps you should ask yourself if I am right, instead of continuing to defend the indefensible.

(*) In all sense of the term.

rottenborough

Morning all,

I missed most of yesterday's threads, but have we debated this little item? Broxtowe CLP now led by former Worker's Liberty, hard left activist:

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/78213/excl-labour-bosses-probe-local-party-officials-far

Has Nick P commented on his old stomping ground?

IanB2

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just seen racialist Britain report. One dodgy stat jumps out straight away, that black graduates earn less than other graduates.

One problem they arent comparing "like for like". Number of black peoppe at top unis is very small, due to on average inferior a-level results, therefore it isn't racialism that means they earn less it is they have worse qualifications.

Though more black pupils go to university now as a percentage than the white working class

Sure. But they aren't comparing that. As I added on my OP the real question is why some groups excel at school & others dont. WWC kids are going baxkwards, first wave of Polish kids are doing well. Black kids below average, Chinese / Indian kids way above.

I guess we aren't allowed that discussion because it's racialist, instead they reports just exaggerate grievances & the level of racism & the proposed solution will be positive discrimination rather than addressing the underlying issues.

My own limited and purely anecdotal experience based on the schools in my patch is that the difference is likely to arise from attitudes (of families as much as pupils) and hence also behaviour rather than any innate differences in ability.

[Deleted User]

John_M said:

Patrick said:

PlatoSaid said:

Out of curiosity, is geothermal at all cost effective? A neighbour of mine went the whole hog yrs ago and did his barn conversion with water pipes buried way down too.

No idea if it worked well. Or at all.

Geothermal is not the same thing as a heat pump.

Geothermal means drilling down to where there is genuinely hot water naturally (thermal spring, geyser, volcanic fissure, most of Iceland, etc). This water is then used directly to heat homes or if its REALLY hot to flash to steam in a turbine/generator. The UK is not terribly suitable for this. I believe there is one truly geothermal district heating scheme in Southampton. But it's never going to amount to much in the UK.

Heat pumps are a very different beast. They are fridges in reverse. Icy refrigerant is pumped through pipes buried underground or in ponds etc. The refrigerant gets warmer. An electrically powered scroll pump compresses the now warm refrigerant and it gets very hot. It dumps this heat via a heat exchanger into a water loop. This is circulated round your house. The energy in the hot water comes about 20% from the electricity and 80% from your pond or ground under your lawn. In that sense they can be 400% efficient! If electricity is cheap then heat pumps absolutely rock as a cost effective way to heat homes (displacing demand for gas). If electricity is expensive they may not compete with a good modern gas boiler overall.

One additional point, heat or air pumps generally produce low intensity heat, so really suited for underfloor heating.

One gem I picked up from my reading around on heat pumps and low carbon residential in general was that mean internal winter temperatures in 1970 were 12C, now they're 17.5C. Wonder if that has any bearing on our overall weight gains?

...you risk kicking off another '4 Yorkshireman' type 'my house was colder than yours' discussion - as we had yesterday...

(Actually a quality modern heat pump can easily heat water to 65c - so fine for bathwater too... Kensa heatpumps have a good website with a brilliant video explaining how they work. If we are about to enter an age of somewhat cheaper electricity because we crack the storage nut and thus open the floodgates for renewables to come into their own, then we're going to see a lot more heat pumps getting installed. We'll be importing a lot less gas.)

ydoethur

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just seen racialist Britain report. One dodgy stat jumps out straight away, that black graduates earn less than other graduates.

One problem they arent comparing "like for like". Number of black peoppe at top unis is very small, due to on average inferior a-level results, therefore it isn't racialism that means they earn less it is they have worse qualifications.

Though more black pupils go to university now as a percentage than the white working class

Sure. But they aren't comparing that. As I added on my OP the real question is why some groups excel at school & others dont. WWC kids are got baxkwards, first wave of Polish kids are doing well. Black kids below average, Chinese / Indian kids way above.

I guess we aren't allowed that discussion because it's racialist.

In my experience - which is I appreciate anecdotal - it's culture rather than aptitude. The Hindu children I've taught always have pushy parents who work them really hard so they get on and achieve. Afro-Carribean children tend to be left to do their own thing at home so never bother working in school. But when they have supportive parents, I've seen them achieve very highly.

The question is how do you break that cycle of low expectations as a school so that they can find it within themselves to work without prompting? And there I have seen both some marvellous work and some genuine laziness.

PlatoSaid

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just seen racialist Britain report. One dodgy stat jumps out straight away, that black graduates earn less than other graduates.

One problem they arent comparing "like for like". Number of black peoppe at top unis is very small, due to on average inferior a-level results, therefore it isn't racialism that means they earn less it is they have worse qualifications.

Though more black pupils go to university now as a percentage than the white working class

Both those statistics being a fairly shocking indictment of the state of far too many of our schools.

Working in Cannock, which is hardly a hotbed of prosperity and high achievement, I keep reminding myself that I am still facing a far less difficult task than I did in Bristol.

One thing I've never got my head around is essay-buying/plagiarism. It simply wasn't something I'd ever come across myself and an allegation of cheating was a hushed-tones taboo. Now the newspapers are full of stories about a whole industry to cater for it.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/student-cheats-and-their-fixers-deserve-harshest-penalties-xlfq9320p

Nursing is apparently rife with it. That strikes me as appalling given the hand-on nature of the job!

JosiasJessop

IanB2 said:

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

She needs to make a decision about Hinkley C. It looks a really crap deal negotiated at a time when all the experts saw energy costs rising indefinitely. If she is not persuaded that is likely any more she needs to find an alternative and fast.

There is no need for an alternative. If HPC is cancelled, then we will see - without any need for government 'planning' - continued investment in CCGTs, wind, and solar.

Indeed, the only planning that government could sensibly do in this area, is to mandate that new homes come with building integrated solar.

What are the economics of household solar in the UK at present *without* subsidies?

Solar thermal, which I have, tends to pay for itself in fifteen years (which I regard as essentially cost neutral), including the RHI payments for seven years, which in my case is about £65 a quarter. Solar PV is the one where the reduction in feed-in tariff (the amount you get paid for generating electricity for the Grid) has seriously hit the viability. However you also need a lot of appropriate roof space for that, which I did not have. My solar thermal (essentially free hot water) just needs two panels.

My own inexpert view from reading materials is that solar thermal is much better for use in much of the UK than solar PV. Although my reading is out-of-date, and I've no idea how better technology and the various tariffs affect their viability.

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned here, but when talking about such things I'd often link to Mr MacKay's excellent book (available on-line for free) "Sustainable Energy without the hot air"

https://www.withouthotair.com/about.html

Sadly, Mr MacKay died earlier this year. I fear sane debate on energy will miss him.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/18/sir-david-mackay-obituary

SimonStClare

BBC - A Team GB athlete has been robbed while returning to their accommodation at the Olympic Games in Rio. The Guardian reported that the victim had been held up at gunpoint while enjoying a night on the town in the early hours of Tuesday morning.

Fast coming to the opinion that Rio is a good Olympics, depressingly let down by the locals.

NickPalmer

rottenborough said:

Morning all,

I missed most of yesterday's threads, but have we debated this little item? Broxtowe CLP now led by former Worker's Liberty, hard left activist:

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/78213/excl-labour-bosses-probe-local-party-officials-far

Has Nick P commented on his old stomping ground?

Yes, commented last thread. I've known him for ages - he's certainly well out on the left in general but very much a free-thinker (e.g. supported Cameron on intervening in Syria because he felt Assad's atrocities couldn't be tolerated). Doubt if he's currently a member of any other party.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Patrick, my boiler's still broken.

Engineers have been baffled for quite some time. One's coming today, thinks it might be the circuit board.

I'd like it to be mended before winter...

FrancisUrquhart

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B2, alas, most games with that sort of history are strategy games and PC-only (though, happily, there do seem to be a couple for the PS4).

Mr. Urquhart, a good point. There was also one about black people being more likely to be victims of homicide, but without mapping the distribution of such incidents and then looking at the ethnic composition of those areas, it's worthless. If black people are 50% of the population in gun-heavy areas, 33% of gunshot victims being black is actually under-representation. If black people are 8% of the population in gun-heavy areas, 33% of gunshot victims being black is massive over-representation.

A lot of serious violence is gang related, so it sort of matters the racial makes up of gangs.

After yesterday's discussion on margin gains in sports including high level statistical analysis, then we get this bollocks.

MaxPB

DavidL said:

HPC is set up to be the largest construction site in Europe with large numbers of UK contractors having built their work programs for the next decade around it. There are tens of thousands of future jobs affected along very long supply chains spreading the spend around the country.

This cannot determine whether this is a good idea or not but at a time when confidence has been shaken this needs some management and presentational skill. Maybe an announcement on Crossrail 2 or HS3 could be accelerated to lessen the sting.

Crossrail 2 and starting HS2 from Manchester/Liverpool and Sheffield/Leeds down to Birmingham would be the two I would choose. I would also seriously look at doing the whole bloody thing underground, we have the TBMs from Crossrail, it seems like a much better solution than having to buy up swathes of the countryside and dealing with loads of local opposition. If those branches are successful then an underground extension down to London can be planned and eventually upwards extensions to Edinburgh/Glasgow.

Both of those projects would be enough to be getting on with for the next 20 years. We need a much better long term energy policy than the legacy of Labour and Osborne. Selling our nuclear industry to the Chinese was a very poor idea. We have home grown nuclear alternatives that can be made to work. The Moltex MSR looks and sounds like a revelation, the £250m nuclear design competition was a wonderful idea and hopefully with HPC off the table the winners of that competition will have the funding to take their reactor design forwards.

The Finnish EPR has bankrupted Areva (to the point of being nationalised) by being 10 years late and 4x overbudget, the Chinese EPR hasn't been cycled up and is stuck in a testing phase similar to a cold shutdown simulation, the French EPR is already years late and massively over budget and doesn't look like it will ever work. It was utter madness to consider this design for the UK. Lets stick to CCGTs, build the Severn and Thames barrages and bet on a different type of nuclear for the future, the Lockheed fusion project looks very promising, it's sad that the UK doesn't back it's companies in the same way to do similar pioneering research.

[Deleted User]

Mr Wifflestick. If you have a lawn then I'd investigate heat pumps. Companies such as Kensa give a free suitability survey. They also help you claim the (largely unclaimed) government subsidy for installation.

FrancisUrquhart

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just seen racialist Britain report. One dodgy stat jumps out straight away, that black graduates earn less than other graduates.

One problem they arent comparing "like for like". Number of black peoppe at top unis is very small, due to on average inferior a-level results, therefore it isn't racialism that means they earn less it is they have worse qualifications.

Though more black pupils go to university now as a percentage than the white working class

Sure. But they aren't comparing that. As I added on my OP the real question is why some groups excel at school & others dont. WWC kids are got baxkwards, first wave of Polish kids are doing well. Black kids below average, Chinese / Indian kids way above.

I guess we aren't allowed that discussion because it's racialist.

In my experience - which is I appreciate anecdotal - it's culture rather than aptitude. The Hindu children I've taught always have pushy parents who work them really hard so they get on and achieve. Afro-Carribean children tend to be left to do their own thing at home so never bother working in school. But when they have supportive parents, I've seen them achieve very highly.

The question is how do you break that cycle of low expectations as a school so that they can find it within themselves to work without prompting? And there I have seen both some marvellous work and some genuine laziness.

KIPPs in the US has a fantastic record on this, but the teaching unions would do their nut if they tries it here .

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Urquhart, can't let facts and reasoned analysis get in the way of kneejerk politically get superficial bullshittery

Mr. Patrick, cheers for the suggestion.

Charles

ydoethur said:

Essexit said:

another_richard said:

TOPPING said:

another_richard said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Gordon Brown was doing well at this point

At the risk of an enforced stint in Conservative Home, her apparent penchant for micromanaging does suggest that her polling may follow Brownian motions.

Agreed. One of Cameron's strengths was letting his ministers get on with it. That meant that they made mistakes from time to time but better that than the paralysis that Brown induced by insisting that every decision had to come by him.

David Cameron was uniquely good among Prime Ministers in my lifetime for the deployment of his ministers. He followed the simple but previously untried approach of letting ministers get familiar with their jobs and then trusting them. It meant that he got the utmost out of quite limited resources.

It was Osborne who did the meddling not Cameron.

You were either an Osbornite or you weren't. If you were, you were part of the charmed circle that it appeared for a while was destined for the top (many did get to the top). If you were outside, it all passed you by, and you were excluded from the heart of government and unlikely to become part of it.

Rather than meddling.

In his final disastrous Budget speech Osborne announced policies which were the responsibilities of about half a dozen other departments.

Remembering how awful Osborne is/was now. That his reward for being a mediocre Chancellor and his outrageous conduct during the referendum campaign was the highest honour in the land still makes me seethe with anger.

Wouldn't have said a CH was higher than a peerage, or even the Order of Merit.

(Just to be clear, I don't think he deserved anything either.)

And certainly not a Garter

CD13

Mr Jessop,

Sorry, should have clarified. Solar PV not solar thermal. It's the greed element. Every three months I get a payment into my bank account - that's what we greedys like. Hot water? Pah!

another_richard

June 2003:

‘ Immigration to the UK could increase by more than 10% as a result of EU enlargement, according to research commissioned by the Home Office.

A report indicated that up to 13,000 extra economic migrants could come to Britain each year as a direct result of 10 new countries joining the organisation.

According to the report: "The net immigration from the AC-10 to the UK after the current enlargement of the EU will be relatively small, at between 5,000 and 13,000 immigrants per year up to 2010."

The Conservatives have expressed fears that expanding the EU would result in large numbers of people from the former Communist countries looking for a more prosperous future in countries like the UK.

But Home Office Minister Beverley Hughes told MPs: “The number coming here for employment will be minimal.” ‘

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2967318.stm

June 2016:

' The number of UK workers from eight eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004 has passed one million for the first time. '

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37109747

FrancisUrquhart

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just seen racialist Britain report. One dodgy stat jumps out straight away, that black graduates earn less than other graduates.

One problem they arent comparing "like for like". Number of black peoppe at top unis is very small, due to on average inferior a-level results, therefore it isn't racialism that means they earn less it is they have worse qualifications.

Though more black pupils go to university now as a percentage than the white working class

Sure. But they aren't comparing that. As I added on my OP the real question is why some groups excel at school & others dont. WWC kids are going baxkwards, first wave of Polish kids are doing well. Black kids below average, Chinese / Indian kids way above.

I guess we aren't allowed that discussion because it's racialist, instead they reports just exaggerate grievances & the level of racism & the proposed solution will be positive discrimination rather than addressing the underlying issues.

My own limited and purely anecdotal experience based on the schools in my patch is that the difference is likely to arise from attitudes (of families as much as pupils) and hence also behaviour rather than any innate differences in ability.

I suspect in general that is the case, but we don't know & is what we really should be addressing rather than these flawed bits of race baiting analysis.

I am sure there is still a level of racism in the UK, but these kind of reports exaggerate it & don't tackle the root cause, poor educational attainment among certain demographics & not others .

Another example is bangleshi kids vs Indian kids.

MaxPB

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

PlatoSaid said:

Are 5000 clearing places at Russell Groups unis usually available?

They've lifted the cap on recruitment, so they can in theory take as many as they like. So if somebody has done unexpectedly well they can upgrade.

Just got mine through and all of them were at least one grade above predictions, which would be rather nice if I weren't still gutted that a couple who had really worked hard and deserved a reward for that got Ds rather than Cs.

Not to sound too harsh, but why did they bother with A Levels and try to go to university if their grade aptitude was so bad? Shouldn't the school have given better advice and told them to get an apprenticeship?

Can't answer that directly, sorry - I hope you will understand that there are limits to what I can say even on an anonymous forum. There were however other factors in play that I thought had been mitigated by their efforts.

Fair enough, I wouldn't want you to get into trouble.

OldKingCole

PlatoSaid said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just seen racialist Britain report. One dodgy stat jumps out straight away, that black graduates earn less than other graduates.

One problem they arent comparing "like for like". Number of black peoppe at top unis is very small, due to on average inferior a-level results, therefore it isn't racialism that means they earn less it is they have worse qualifications.

Though more black pupils go to university now as a percentage than the white working class

Both those statistics being a fairly shocking indictment of the state of far too many of our schools.

Working in Cannock, which is hardly a hotbed of prosperity and high achievement, I keep reminding myself that I am still facing a far less difficult task than I did in Bristol.

One thing I've never got my head around is essay-buying/plagiarism. It simply wasn't something I'd ever come across myself and an allegation of cheating was a hushed-tones taboo. Now the newspapers are full of stories about a whole industry to cater for it.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/student-cheats-and-their-fixers-deserve-harshest-penalties-xlfq9320p

Nursing is apparently rife with it. That strikes me as appalling given the hand-on nature of the job!

I think it’ may be BECAUSE nursing is hands-on that sutudents “obtain” essays nfrom outside sources. They’d rathwer be doing nursing than writing about it. And they’re led, in many cases, by people who were craft, hands-on, trained, rather than academically.