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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs. May’s new PM ratings honeymoon is bigger than Thatcher’s, Cameron’s or Brown’s, but smaller than Major or Blair

With a lot of the non-LAB leadership politics discussion being on May’s polling honeymoon I thought I’d look back at the old MORI ratings to see how other new PM’s were doing at this stage in their occupancy of Number 10.

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JohnLoony

Cut Them In Half With A Scythe!

IanB2

Second like Smith

JackW

Difficult to think of John Major having a huge honeymoon rating ....

Oh er Missus ....

Morris_Dancer

I wonder if that's just a function of inheritance, regarding the economy and popularity compared with the outgoing PM in particular.

Sean_F

FPT Rotten Borough All true. It is Planet Thanet, as interesting a place in it's way as rural Norfolk.

JackW

ydoethur said:

Morning JackW.

I trust your slumbers were undisturbed by visions of new Olympic sports?

Good morning young man.

I was hoping for Ladies pairs shackled synchronized massage from the 10m high board. Might have happened, might not .... can't bloody remember.

One can but dream ....

david_herdson

There seems to be quite a 'relief factor' in the figures. It's not just about how well liked and respected the new PM is but also how relieved the country is to be shut of the last one. Cameron's ratings towards the end were pretty awful but this was rarely commented on because so much else was happening in his final few months. To move from that to even a blankish sheet of paper provides people with hope that it'll be better than last time. The contrast with the PM's principal opponent also matters, and I'd suggest is also acting as a boost for May.

In some ways, May has begun well. She exudes an air of competent control. The extent to which that is representative of the reality will be told in time. Much the same was said of Brown, and while those who'd been watching closely knew that it wasn't the case with him, there's less evidence either way with May. We can't really as yet unpick sensible reconsideration of policy from an inclination to micromanage.

ydoethur

JackW said:

Difficult to think of John Major having a huge honeymoon rating ....

Oh er Missus ....

Unless Edwina went too...

JackW said:

ydoethur said:

Morning JackW.

I trust your slumbers were undisturbed by visions of new Olympic sports?

Good morning young man.

I was hoping for Ladies pairs shackled synchronized massage from the 10m high board. Might have happened, might not .... can't bloody remember.

One can but dream ....

PlatoSaid

david_herdson said:

There seems to be quite a 'relief factor' in the figures. It's not just about how well liked and respected the new PM is but also how relieved the country is to be shut of the last one. Cameron's ratings towards the end were pretty awful but this was rarely commented on because so much else was happening in his final few months. To move from that to even a blankish sheet of paper provides people with hope that it'll be better than last time. The contrast with the PM's principal opponent also matters, and I'd suggest is also acting as a boost for May.

In some ways, May has begun well. She exudes an air of competent control. The extent to which that is representative of the reality will be told in time. Much the same was said of Brown, and while those who'd been watching closely knew that it wasn't the case with him, there's less evidence either way with May. We can't really as yet unpick sensible reconsideration of policy from an inclination to micromanage.

Spot on.

ydoethur

david_herdson said:

In some ways, May has begun well. She exudes an air of competent control. The extent to which that is representative of the reality will be told in time. Much the same was said of Brown, and while those who'd been watching closely knew that it wasn't the case with him, there's less evidence either way with May. We can't really as yet unpick sensible reconsideration of policy from an inclination to micromanage.

I think part of Brown's problem was that he had been used to micromanaging domestic policy from No.11 via his control over funds, and didn't get that with the PM's extra duties that wouldn't be possible.

May of course has only been responsible for the Home Office so won't be in the habit of bossing other ministers around. The question is whether she will want to meddle now she has the power, or whether she will allow her ministers more freedom in implementing agreed policy. That's what we can't be sure of yet.

AlastairMeeks

The honeymoon here refers to polling just after becoming Prime Minister. Polling just after becoming leader would be more helpful. David Cameron had been leader for four years before becoming Prime Minister, as had Margaret Thatcher. By then they were very known quantities as leaders.

Theresa May's polling is best compared with John Major's and Gordon Brown's.

OldKingCole

david_herdson said:

There seems to be quite a 'relief factor' in the figures. It's not just about how well liked and respected the new PM is but also how relieved the country is to be shut of the last one. Cameron's ratings towards the end were pretty awful but this was rarely commented on because so much else was happening in his final few months. To move from that to even a blankish sheet of paper provides people with hope that it'll be better than last time. The contrast with the PM's principal opponent also matters, and I'd suggest is also acting as a boost for May.

In some ways, May has begun well. She exudes an air of competent control. The extent to which that is representative of the reality will be told in time. Much the same was said of Brown, and while those who'd been watching closely knew that it wasn't the case with him, there's less evidence either way with May. We can't really as yet unpick sensible reconsideration of policy from an inclination to micromanage.

The concept that Private Eye have of her as a no-nonsense Head of a prestigious girls school is interesting. Especially in this context.

rottenborough

Interesting stuff Mike. IIRC Thatcher was not expected to win in 79.

rottenborough

david_herdson said:

There seems to be quite a 'relief factor' in the figures. It's not just about how well liked and respected the new PM is but also how relieved the country is to be shut of the last one. Cameron's ratings towards the end were pretty awful but this was rarely commented on because so much else was happening in his final few months. To move from that to even a blankish sheet of paper provides people with hope that it'll be better than last time. The contrast with the PM's principal opponent also matters, and I'd suggest is also acting as a boost for May.

In some ways, May has begun well. She exudes an air of competent control. The extent to which that is representative of the reality will be told in time. Much the same was said of Brown, and while those who'd been watching closely knew that it wasn't the case with him, there's less evidence either way with May. We can't really as yet unpick sensible reconsideration of policy from an inclination to micromanage.

I think the relief is that Louthsome didn't become PM, which looked at least fairly possible at one point in the campaign.

Certainly the case here.

Mortimer

Note to Corbyn: to win you need to get actual Tories to vote Labour. People who have voted Tory since 2005. Not people who thought about it whilst queuing for regurgitated quinoa in a pop up stand in Hackney.

OldKingCole

rottenborough said:

Interesting stuff Mike. IIRC Thatcher was not expected to win in 79.

IIRC she was. Callaghan was seen as improving but not enough.

Essexit

The LotO as well as the predecessor is probably worth considering. Certainly relevant in May's case!

Mortimer

AlastairMeeks said:

The honeymoon here refers to polling just after becoming Prime Minister. Polling just after becoming leader would be more helpful. David Cameron had been leader for four years before becoming Prime Minister, as had Margaret Thatcher. By then they were very known quantities as leaders.

Theresa May's polling is best compared with John Major's and Gordon Brown's.

Because no one dreamed Brown would become PM, right?

If anything he was more likely to become PM from his position than Thatcher from hers.

HYUFD

May's rating should really be compared most closely to Major and Brown's as like them and unlike Thatcher, Blair and Cameron she became PM when the party was already in government
The fact her initial approval rating is closer to Major than that of Brown suggests she should be able to win at least one general election especially given the weakness of Labour

SquareRoot

Brown's coronation was the demonstration of the old saying "You can't polish a turd". Labour did its best at the 2007 conference, but all the bright lights couldn't hide what a first class shit the man was.

Sean_F

Mortimer said:

Note to Corbyn: to win you need to get actual Tories to vote Labour. People who have voted Tory since 2005. Not people who thought about it whilst queuing for regurgitated quinoa in a pop up stand in Hackney.

It's not all bad news for Corbyn. Labour did gain a seat from UKIP in a parish council by-election last night.

ydoethur

rottenborough said:

Interesting stuff Mike. IIRC Thatcher was not expected to win in 79.

She was not expected to win in 1978, but by 1979 she undoubtedly was.

However, she was also the last party leader to win an election while behind in the 'best PM' ratings.

AlastairMeeks

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The honeymoon here refers to polling just after becoming Prime Minister. Polling just after becoming leader would be more helpful. David Cameron had been leader for four years before becoming Prime Minister, as had Margaret Thatcher. By then they were very known quantities as leaders.

Theresa May's polling is best compared with John Major's and Gordon Brown's.

Because no one dreamed Brown would become PM, right?

If anything he was more likely to become PM from his position than Thatcher from hers.

"Known quantities as leaders"

HYUFD

Ant and Dec have got their revenge on Corbyn after he failed to recognise them in a quiz on the BBC leadership debate, when asked on Twitter if they knew him they replied 'who? ' with a winking emoji

Mortimer

Morris_Dancer said:

I wonder if that's just a function of inheritance, regarding the economy and popularity compared with the outgoing PM in particular.

Most sensible comment of the morning award.

My main problem with the comparison of leadership ratings is that they do not exist in isolation; all are relative. And are often used to explain situations after the fact than rather than as hooks on which to hang predictions before things happen.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Mortimer, thanks

Also, check your Vanilla inbox.

Casino_Royale

HYUFD said:

Ant and Dec have got their revenge on Corbyn after he failed to recognise them in a quiz on the BBC leadership debate, when asked on Twitter if they knew him they replied 'who? ' with a winking emoji

To be honest, I can't tell them apart myself.

They've been a somewhat irritating presence on the nation's TV screens for almost two decades, and show no sign of disappearing.

HYUFD

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

Interesting stuff Mike. IIRC Thatcher was not expected to win in 79.

She was not expected to win in 1978, but by 1979 she undoubtedly was.

However, she was also the last party leader to win an election while behind in the 'best PM' ratings.

Had it been a presidential election in 1979 rather than a parliamentary one it is not impossible Callaghan would have beaten Thatcher

TheScreamingEagles

I did a bit of research.

Excluding 1970 when the polls were wrong, David Cameron is the only PM to resign whilst leading in the polls, I reckon Mrs May's ratings is the cherry on the parfait that is Cameron's polling legacy.

HYUFD

Mortimer said:

Note to Corbyn: to win you need to get actual Tories to vote Labour. People who have voted Tory since 2005. Not people who thought about it whilst queuing for regurgitated quinoa in a pop up stand in Hackney.

Corbyn does not need any of those who voted Tory in 2005 to vote for him however he does need a few of those who voted Tory in 2010 and 2015 to vote Labour

Moses_

FPT Mr Morris

"Mr. Royale, that's true. I always feel sympathy when watching the North Korean athletes too. Can't imagine their training regimes, and lives generally, are other than brutal"

Huff post view from 2012

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/03/north-korea-olympics-team_n_1737181.html

PlatoSaid

Mortimer said:

Note to Corbyn: to win you need to get actual Tories to vote Labour. People who have voted Tory since 2005. Not people who thought about it whilst queuing for regurgitated quinoa in a pop up stand in Hackney.

What does quinoa taste like? Or look like? I've never seen it in the flesh and no desire to either.

Is regurgitated quinoa something Gwyeth Paltrow sources from ethically sourced seagulls?

kle4

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Ant and Dec have got their revenge on Corbyn after he failed to recognise them in a quiz on the BBC leadership debate, when asked on Twitter if they knew him they replied 'who? ' with a winking emoji

To be honest, I can't tell them apart myself.

They've been a somewhat irritating presence on the nation's TV screens for almost two decades, and show no sign of disappearing.

I don't recall which is which either - not that they are that similar, just that you only ever see them as a pair so it doesn't matter which is which - but I thought Corbyn didn't recognise either. Not that it matters, there's no reason he should need to,

tlg86

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The honeymoon here refers to polling just after becoming Prime Minister. Polling just after becoming leader would be more helpful. David Cameron had been leader for four years before becoming Prime Minister, as had Margaret Thatcher. By then they were very known quantities as leaders.

Theresa May's polling is best compared with John Major's and Gordon Brown's.

Because no one dreamed Brown would become PM, right?

If anything he was more likely to become PM from his position than Thatcher from hers.

"Known quantities as leaders"

Had Blair not done the dirty on Brown, and it was the latter who led Labour back to power in 1997, what do you think his ratings would have been at the start of his premiership?

AlastairMeeks

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Ant and Dec have got their revenge on Corbyn after he failed to recognise them in a quiz on the BBC leadership debate, when asked on Twitter if they knew him they replied 'who? ' with a winking emoji

To be honest, I can't tell them apart myself.

They've been a somewhat irritating presence on the nation's TV screens for almost two decades, and show no sign of disappearing.

Ant always - always - stands to the left of Dec.

Should you have trouble telling John and Edward of Jedward apart, the same is true of John also.

Mortimer

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Note to Corbyn: to win you need to get actual Tories to vote Labour. People who have voted Tory since 2005. Not people who thought about it whilst queuing for regurgitated quinoa in a pop up stand in Hackney.

Corbyn does not need any of those who voted Tory in 2005 to vote for him however he does need a few of those who voted Tory in 2010 and 2015 to vote Labour

Given the propensity of people to vote Conservativr as they get older, he almost certainty does. Many who voted Labour in 97, 01 and 05 will now vote Tory.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Ant and Dec have got their revenge on Corbyn after he failed to recognise them in a quiz on the BBC leadership debate, when asked on Twitter if they knew him they replied 'who? ' with a winking emoji

To be honest, I can't tell them apart myself.

They've been a somewhat irritating presence on the nation's TV screens for almost two decades, and show no sign of disappearing.

You are Bill Nighy

https://youtu.be/c2mVtSyRcA8

SquareRoot

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did a bit of research.

Excluding 1970 when the polls were wrong, David Cameron is the only PM to resign whilst leading in the polls, I reckon Mrs May's ratings is the cherry on the parfait that is Cameron's polling legacy.

That and the utter incompetence and lack of leadership from the LOTO. There hasn't been anyone as awful that I can recall.

Mortimer

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did a bit of research.

Excluding 1970 when the polls were wrong, David Cameron is the only PM to resign whilst leading in the polls, I reckon Mrs May's ratings is the cherry on the parfait that is Cameron's polling legacy.

Come on TSE. The latest popular (unpopular??) things poll put the Tory brand ahead of Cameron.

He forgot he was a Tory. Lib Dem Prime Minister is what he will be remembered as.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Moses, not surprising, unfortunately.

AlastairMeeks

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The honeymoon here refers to polling just after becoming Prime Minister. Polling just after becoming leader would be more helpful. David Cameron had been leader for four years before becoming Prime Minister, as had Margaret Thatcher. By then they were very known quantities as leaders.

Theresa May's polling is best compared with John Major's and Gordon Brown's.

Because no one dreamed Brown would become PM, right?

If anything he was more likely to become PM from his position than Thatcher from hers.

"Known quantities as leaders"

Had Blair not done the dirty on Brown, and it was the latter who led Labour back to power in 1997, what do you think his ratings would have been at the start of his premiership?

How did Blair do the dirty on Brown?

I have genuinely no idea what Gordon Brown's ratings would have been in 1997 if he had been leader of the Labour party. Not as good as Tony Blair's I imagine, but he would have been a much more confident, much less bitter man than he was in 2007. So I really wouldn't like to guess.

Scott_P

@oflynnmep:
Smith - I'd negotiate with ISIS.
Corbyn - OK then, I will raise you not defending a NATO member invaded by Russia. Your move...

TheScreamingEagles

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did a bit of research.

Excluding 1970 when the polls were wrong, David Cameron is the only PM to resign whilst leading in the polls, I reckon Mrs May's ratings is the cherry on the parfait that is Cameron's polling legacy.

Come on TSE. The latest popular (unpopular??) things poll put the Tory brand ahead of Cameron.

He forgot he was a Tory. Lib Dem Prime Minister is what he will be remembered as.

Thanks to Dave, the detox project worked.

Read Lord Ashcroft's wake up and smell the coffee report from 2005.

HYUFD

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The honeymoon here refers to polling just after becoming Prime Minister. Polling just after becoming leader would be more helpful. David Cameron had been leader for four years before becoming Prime Minister, as had Margaret Thatcher. By then they were very known quantities as leaders.

Theresa May's polling is best compared with John Major's and Gordon Brown's.

Because no one dreamed Brown would become PM, right?

If anything he was more likely to become PM from his position than Thatcher from hers.

"Known quantities as leaders"

Had Blair not done the dirty on Brown, and it was the latter who led Labour back to power in 1997, what do you think his ratings would have been at the start of his premiership?

Lower, Brown would never have won seats like Shrewsbury, Romford, Putney, Enfield Southgate etc which Blair won

Scott_P

In all the "excitement" over which unelectable left winger will destroy the Labour Party fastest, we seem to be missing another far more important contest running in Scotland...

https://twitter.com/scottynational/status/766395080987054080

TheScreamingEagles

I'm shocked by this, shocked I tell you.

Ukip Youth Group Trade Islamophobic, Anti-Semitic And Homophobic Slurs In Secret Facebook Group

‘Some of the most racist, hurtful and pathetic comments I have ever seen.’

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_57b5db59e4b026af7c4cf56a

malcolmg

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Ant and Dec have got their revenge on Corbyn after he failed to recognise them in a quiz on the BBC leadership debate, when asked on Twitter if they knew him they replied 'who? ' with a winking emoji

To be honest, I can't tell them apart myself.

They've been a somewhat irritating presence on the nation's TV screens for almost two decades, and show no sign of disappearing.

I don't recall which is which either - not that they are that similar, just that you only ever see them as a pair so it doesn't matter which is which - but I thought Corbyn didn't recognise either. Not that it matters, there's no reason he should need to,

They really are an annoying pair of tw*ts , it amazes me the millions of morons out there that like to watch them. It explains why this country is in such a mess.

tlg86

AlastairMeeks said:

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The honeymoon here refers to polling just after becoming Prime Minister. Polling just after becoming leader would be more helpful. David Cameron had been leader for four years before becoming Prime Minister, as had Margaret Thatcher. By then they were very known quantities as leaders.

Theresa May's polling is best compared with John Major's and Gordon Brown's.

Because no one dreamed Brown would become PM, right?

If anything he was more likely to become PM from his position than Thatcher from hers.

"Known quantities as leaders"

Had Blair not done the dirty on Brown, and it was the latter who led Labour back to power in 1997, what do you think his ratings would have been at the start of his premiership?

How did Blair do the dirty on Brown?

I have genuinely no idea what Gordon Brown's ratings would have been in 1997 if he had been leader of the Labour party. Not as good as Tony Blair's I imagine, but he would have been a much more confident, much less bitter man than he was in 2007. So I really wouldn't like to guess.

I was being provocative. Actually, the dirty was done later in 2005, wasn't Blair supposed to only serve two terms? I reckon Brown would have been +35 to +45 if he'd been leader in 1997.

Morris_Dancer

On the face of it, this sounds insane:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-37118850

A man cleared of a rape charge is now not eligible for benefits, legal aid and police measures mean he can't apply for most jobs. He's now sleeping rough.

JackW

Sean_F said:

It's not all bad news for Corbyn. Labour did gain a seat from UKIP in a parish council by-election last night.

Titter ....

Scott_P

Very disappointing I missed out on a 12/1 shot Adam Gemili missed out on a Bronze medal by 0.004 seconds

Jonathan

May hasn't done anything yet. The question is whether she ever will.

Her Maycavity act is better than Brown's.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. P, I sympathise. Around the 2010 Monaco Grand Prix (give or take a year) I backed Kubica for pole at comparable odds and he was a similarly tiny margin off getting it.

ydoethur

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The honeymoon here refers to polling just after becoming Prime Minister. Polling just after becoming leader would be more helpful. David Cameron had been leader for four years before becoming Prime Minister, as had Margaret Thatcher. By then they were very known quantities as leaders.

Theresa May's polling is best compared with John Major's and Gordon Brown's.

Because no one dreamed Brown would become PM, right?

If anything he was more likely to become PM from his position than Thatcher from hers.

"Known quantities as leaders"

Had Blair not done the dirty on Brown, and it was the latter who led Labour back to power in 1997, what do you think his ratings would have been at the start of his premiership?

The reason Brown withdrew in 1994 is because it was obvious not merely that he would not beat Blair, but that he would not beat Prescott, which would have been a genuine disaster for Labour. So I am slightly puzzled at your assertion that Brown 'would have led Labour back to power'.

The reason people believe otherwise is because Brown is such a narcissist he came to genuinely believe that he had been magnanimous to pull out and let Blair win. It is why he became so vicious to all potential rivals and later to his own ministers, because he thought they were acting on Blair's bidding to thwart him again. History, in this case is written not by the victor but by a man who is in every sense of the word a loser.

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Ant and Dec have got their revenge on Corbyn after he failed to recognise them in a quiz on the BBC leadership debate, when asked on Twitter if they knew him they replied 'who? ' with a winking emoji

To be honest, I can't tell them apart myself.

They've been a somewhat irritating presence on the nation's TV screens for almost two decades, and show no sign of disappearing.

Ant always - always - stands to the left of Dec.

Should you have trouble telling John and Edward of Jedward apart, the same is true of John also.

To be honest that's fairly low down my trouble list.

PlatoSaid

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Ant and Dec have got their revenge on Corbyn after he failed to recognise them in a quiz on the BBC leadership debate, when asked on Twitter if they knew him they replied 'who? ' with a winking emoji

To be honest, I can't tell them apart myself.

They've been a somewhat irritating presence on the nation's TV screens for almost two decades, and show no sign of disappearing.

I don't recall which is which either - not that they are that similar, just that you only ever see them as a pair so it doesn't matter which is which - but I thought Corbyn didn't recognise either. Not that it matters, there's no reason he should need to,

I don't know one from the other and had no idea who they were for yrs either. I see them when watching BGT [and I never watched that either until @JohnLoony mentioned it a long while ago]. They're very good at being chirpy chappies.

Nothing can beat EdM's fake interest in popular TV - he'd a crib.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11163473/Ed-Miliband-researching-popular-TV-shows-like-EastEnders-online-as-election-approaches.html

" Mr Miliband met EastEnders star Danny Dyer at a London awards ceremony for gay magazine Attitude on Monday night, according to The Sun.

Discussing the show, Mr Miliband revealed he knew the character of Ben Mitchell had been played by five different actors while Martin Fowler had been portrayed by three.

However when asked if he watched the show, Mr Miliband reportedly said: "No, I don’t have time any more but I’ve been doing a lot of research about it online.”

A Labour source told the paper: “It might have felt a bit awkward but Ed was just making a genuine effort to brush up on his TV knowledge."

CD13

Mr W,

"I was hoping for Ladies pairs shackled synchronized massage from the 10m high board."

I'm shocked, truly shocked. You are clearly as shallow as wot I is.

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The honeymoon here refers to polling just after becoming Prime Minister. Polling just after becoming leader would be more helpful. David Cameron had been leader for four years before becoming Prime Minister, as had Margaret Thatcher. By then they were very known quantities as leaders.

Theresa May's polling is best compared with John Major's and Gordon Brown's.

Because no one dreamed Brown would become PM, right?

If anything he was more likely to become PM from his position than Thatcher from hers.

"Known quantities as leaders"

Had Blair not done the dirty on Brown, and it was the latter who led Labour back to power in 1997, what do you think his ratings would have been at the start of his premiership?

How did Blair do the dirty on Brown?

I have genuinely no idea what Gordon Brown's ratings would have been in 1997 if he had been leader of the Labour party. Not as good as Tony Blair's I imagine, but he would have been a much more confident, much less bitter man than he was in 2007. So I really wouldn't like to guess.

Brown would have won a solid majority, but probably not the extra 30-40 English Shire seats that Blair hoovered up.

I'd have thought about 370 seats and a majority of 80ish.

ydoethur

malcolmg said:

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Ant and Dec have got their revenge on Corbyn after he failed to recognise them in a quiz on the BBC leadership debate, when asked on Twitter if they knew him they replied 'who? ' with a winking emoji

To be honest, I can't tell them apart myself.

They've been a somewhat irritating presence on the nation's TV screens for almost two decades, and show no sign of disappearing.

I don't recall which is which either - not that they are that similar, just that you only ever see them as a pair so it doesn't matter which is which - but I thought Corbyn didn't recognise either. Not that it matters, there's no reason he should need to,

They really are an annoying pair of tw*ts , it amazes me the millions of morons out there that like to watch them. It explains why this country is in such a mess.

I'm very pleased you didn't call them turnips. Such unkindness to root vegetables would have been unconscionable especially this early in the morning

Scott_P

@antanddec: Who? https://t.co/WCv3ZZ6mUy

JackW

CD13 said:

Mr W,

"I was hoping for Ladies pairs shackled synchronized massage from the 10m high board."

I'm shocked, truly shocked. You are clearly as shallow as wot I is.

Indeed.

However the nobility do depravity with so much more style and elegance ..

PlatoSaid

Techical question - given taekwando contenders wear headguards - why don't they have footware? It'd kill/break bones to smack someone with bare feet - wouldn't it?

ydoethur

PlatoSaid said:

However when asked if he watched the show, Mr Miliband reportedly said: "No, I don’t have time any more but I’ve been doing a lot of research about it online.”

A Labour source told the paper: “It might have felt a bit awkward but Ed was just making a genuine effort to brush up on his TV knowledge."

Watching it is one thing.

Doing research about it online is a bit sad.

Doing research about it online even though you don't watch it is so weird that it's actually rather worrying.

But then, this is Ed 'I'm a normal person so I get it' Miliband we're talking about...

Back to work. Have a good morning everyone!

theakes

Absolutely NO sign of this May surge in the results so far from last night. If anything Conservatives going backwards. I would take in with a pinch of salt. See what happens with todays counts particuarly the three seats in Fareham.

HYUFD

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Note to Corbyn: to win you need to get actual Tories to vote Labour. People who have voted Tory since 2005. Not people who thought about it whilst queuing for regurgitated quinoa in a pop up stand in Hackney.

Corbyn does not need any of those who voted Tory in 2005 to vote for him however he does need a few of those who voted Tory in 2010 and 2015 to vote Labour

Given the propensity of people to vote Conservativr as they get older, he almost certainty does. Many who voted Labour in 97, 01 and 05 will now vote Tory.

Maybe but virtually nobody who voted for Michael Howard in 2005 will vote Labour at the next general election and Labour could win without winning a single one of those voters anyway

Morris_Dancer

Mr. HYUFD, that does neglect the Conservatives taking a huge bite out of the Lib Dems, and the SNP taking almost every seat in what Labour had long considered its natural territory.

IanB2

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did a bit of research.

Excluding 1970 when the polls were wrong, David Cameron is the only PM to resign whilst leading in the polls, I reckon Mrs May's ratings is the cherry on the parfait that is Cameron's polling legacy.

Come on TSE. The latest popular (unpopular??) things poll put the Tory brand ahead of Cameron.

He forgot he was a Tory. Lib Dem Prime Minister is what he will be remembered as.

He'll be remembered as the one whose gamble took us out of Europe. Unless of course the UK does fall apart in which case the back of the tombstone will be needed as well. Nothing really to do with being LibDem; a second coalition would not have made the gamble.

IanB2

PlatoSaid said:

Techical question - given taekwando contenders wear headguards - why don't they have footware? It'd kill/break bones to smack someone with bare feet - wouldn't it?

The head guards are of course also a scoring device.

DecrepitJohnL

PlatoSaid said:

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Ant and Dec have got their revenge on Corbyn after he failed to recognise them in a quiz on the BBC leadership debate, when asked on Twitter if they knew him they replied 'who? ' with a winking emoji

To be honest, I can't tell them apart myself.

They've been a somewhat irritating presence on the nation's TV screens for almost two decades, and show no sign of disappearing.

I don't recall which is which either - not that they are that similar, just that you only ever see them as a pair so it doesn't matter which is which - but I thought Corbyn didn't recognise either. Not that it matters, there's no reason he should need to,

I don't know one from the other and had no idea who they were for yrs either. I see them when watching BGT [and I never watched that either until @JohnLoony mentioned it a long while ago]. They're very good at being chirpy chappies.

Nothing can beat EdM's fake interest in popular TV - he'd a crib.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11163473/Ed-Miliband-researching-popular-TV-shows-like-EastEnders-online-as-election-approaches.html

" Mr Miliband met EastEnders star Danny Dyer at a London awards ceremony for gay magazine Attitude on Monday night, according to The Sun.

Discussing the show, Mr Miliband revealed he knew the character of Ben Mitchell had been played by five different actors while Martin Fowler had been portrayed by three.

However when asked if he watched the show, Mr Miliband reportedly said: "No, I don’t have time any more but I’ve been doing a lot of research about it online.”

A Labour source told the paper: “It might have felt a bit awkward but Ed was just making a genuine effort to brush up on his TV knowledge."

All very weird but surely SOP for politicos or indeed almost anyone these days -- if you are going to an event with which you are unfamiliar, you do some research online or read a brief compiled by someone else. It was failing to do basic research about Mumsnet that led Gordon Brown to flounder on the booby-trapped "favourite biscuit" question. Making a fuss of it just shows media bias. The weird part was the obsession with trivia, as if Miliband had Eastenders as his specialist round in Celebrity Mastermind.

rottenborough

theakes said:

Absolutely NO sign of this May surge in the results so far from last night. If anything Conservatives going backwards. I would take in with a pinch of salt. See what happens with todays counts particuarly the three seats in Fareham.

Why on earth are councils holding by-elections in August? Half the population is on holiday.

HYUFD

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, that does neglect the Conservatives taking a huge bite out of the Lib Dems, and the SNP taking almost every seat in what Labour had long considered its natural territory.

Many of the 2010 LDs who went Tory in 2015 may have voted for Blair or Kennedy and could be Labour targets but none will have voted for Howard in 2005 and of course Howard only won 1 Scottish seat

IanB2

rottenborough said:

theakes said:

Absolutely NO sign of this May surge in the results so far from last night. If anything Conservatives going backwards. I would take in with a pinch of salt. See what happens with todays counts particuarly the three seats in Fareham.

Why on earth are councils holding by-elections in August? Half the population is on holiday.

If two electors write the letter, the election has to be held. There is almost always someone locally who wants it quick.

Sean_F

PlatoSaid said:

Mortimer said:

Note to Corbyn: to win you need to get actual Tories to vote Labour. People who have voted Tory since 2005. Not people who thought about it whilst queuing for regurgitated quinoa in a pop up stand in Hackney.

What does quinoa taste like? Or look like? I've never seen it in the flesh and no desire to either.

Is regurgitated quinoa something Gwyeth Paltrow sources from ethically sourced seagulls?

Regurgitated quinoa joins coffee made from weasel vomit and cat excrement and Frey pies as food I never want to try.

rottenborough

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The honeymoon here refers to polling just after becoming Prime Minister. Polling just after becoming leader would be more helpful. David Cameron had been leader for four years before becoming Prime Minister, as had Margaret Thatcher. By then they were very known quantities as leaders.

Theresa May's polling is best compared with John Major's and Gordon Brown's.

Because no one dreamed Brown would become PM, right?

If anything he was more likely to become PM from his position than Thatcher from hers.

"Known quantities as leaders"

Had Blair not done the dirty on Brown, and it was the latter who led Labour back to power in 1997, what do you think his ratings would have been at the start of his premiership?

The reason Brown withdrew in 1994 is because it was obvious not merely that he would not beat Blair, but that he would not beat Prescott, which would have been a genuine disaster for Labour. So I am slightly puzzled at your assertion that Brown 'would have led Labour back to power'.

The reason people believe otherwise is because Brown is such a narcissist he came to genuinely believe that he had been magnanimous to pull out and let Blair win. It is why he became so vicious to all potential rivals and later to his own ministers, because he thought they were acting on Blair's bidding to thwart him again. History, in this case is written not by the victor but by a man who is in every sense of the word a loser.

The worry was that if Blair and Brown both stood, then they would split the progressive, 'we need to change to win' vote. John Smith had operated a 'one more heave' strategy.

TheScreamingEagles

My 100/1 tip on Burgon as next Labour leader is going to be a sure fire winner

Shadow Justice Secretary and fervent Jeremy Corbyn supporter is heading to Scotland next week to address a rally organised by Momentum.

He's obviously very excited about it, judging by his tweets publicising the event and encouraging as many socialists as possible to attend.

Just one snag, though. Cambridge graduate Mr Burgon has been encouraging them to turn up at the wrong place.

Keen-eyed observers will notice that the event is taking place at Port Glasgow Town Hall. The Labour MP for East Leeds, however, is imploring his followers to go to Glasgow - some 23 miles away....

...One Scottish Labour source told Dot: "Richard Burgon is a moron. He's simply demonstrating just how in touch with Scotland they are."

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/dot-commons-diary/78240/oops-shadow-minister-richard-has-bur

MaxPB

Glad to see the Mayor finally addressing the alarming rate of closure in London's club and bar scene. Hopefully the 24h tube service will help longer opening hours. I know when I used to do these things that I would weigh up the cost of staying out late with how much fun it was. 9/10 times the cost of additional drinks and a taxi came to a figure that didn't justify staying out late. I'm sure I wasn't alone. The night tube is going to be great, I just hope that TfL can extend it to more days and more lines.

BannedInParis

I think the decays of opoosition leader ratings are really instructive.

1) You will go down.

2) Once you go down, you stay down.

The only people in recent years to buck the trends were Blair (didn't go down) and Cameron (only went down because of the hype of the Brown bounce).

Pulpstar

MaxPB said:

Glad to see the Mayor finally addressing the alarming rate of closure in London's club and bar scene. Hopefully the 24h tube service will help longer opening hours. I know when I used to do these things that I would weigh up the cost of staying out late with how much fun it was. 9/10 times the cost of additional drinks and a taxi came to a figure that didn't justify staying out late. I'm sure I wasn't alone. The night tube is going to be great, I just hope that TfL can extend it to more days and more lines.

It could be handy for the next PB meet.

rottenborough

Sean_F said:

PlatoSaid said:

Mortimer said:

Note to Corbyn: to win you need to get actual Tories to vote Labour. People who have voted Tory since 2005. Not people who thought about it whilst queuing for regurgitated quinoa in a pop up stand in Hackney.

What does quinoa taste like? Or look like? I've never seen it in the flesh and no desire to either.

Is regurgitated quinoa something Gwyeth Paltrow sources from ethically sourced seagulls?

Regurgitated quinoa joins coffee made from weasel vomit and cat excrement and Frey pies as food I never want to try.

Quinoa is pretty good actually - rather nutty taste and looks a little like brown rice when cooked, although round, slightly puffed out seeds rather than thin seeds.

For people looking to reduce glucose load from carbs as part of a diet, especially if pre-diabetic, then it is excellent replacement for pasta or rice.

No idea about regurgitation aspect. We don't do that in my part of the Midlands.

CarlottaVance

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Ant and Dec have got their revenge on Corbyn after he failed to recognise them in a quiz on the BBC leadership debate, when asked on Twitter if they knew him they replied 'who? ' with a winking emoji

To be honest, I can't tell them apart myself.

The Bill Nighy character gloriously took the p*ss in Love Actually when they were presenting his aged rock star character with an award:

Thank you Ant or Dec

He then went on to say 'Kids - don't buy drugs - become a rock star and you're given them free!'....

Scott_P

TheScreamingEagles said:

My 100/1 tip on Burgon as next Labour leader is going to be a sure fire winner

Shadow Justice Secretary and fervent Jeremy Corbyn supporter is heading to Scotland next week to address a rally organised by Momentum.

He's obviously very excited about it, judging by his tweets publicising the event and encouraging as many socialists as possible to attend.

Just one snag, though. Cambridge graduate Mr Burgon has been encouraging them to turn up at the wrong place.

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/766365209858539520

DecrepitJohnL

Morris_Dancer said:

On the face of it, this sounds insane:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-37118850

A man cleared of a rape charge is now not eligible for benefits, legal aid and police measures mean he can't apply for most jobs. He's now sleeping rough.

Kafkaesque -- leave aside the sex and crime angle and the problem is that no-one in the benefits office has the authority to override the rigid guidelines around benefits, and this spiralled into the same situation on legal aid. Whitehall knows best, except for all sorts of edge-cases that IDS or New Labour never considered.

DecrepitJohnL

MaxPB said:

Glad to see the Mayor finally addressing the alarming rate of closure in London's club and bar scene. Hopefully the 24h tube service will help longer opening hours. I know when I used to do these things that I would weigh up the cost of staying out late with how much fun it was. 9/10 times the cost of additional drinks and a taxi came to a figure that didn't justify staying out late. I'm sure I wasn't alone. The night tube is going to be great, I just hope that TfL can extend it to more days and more lines.

The tabloids will surely have photographers primed for snaps of empty carriages and/or passed-out passengers.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. L, it's deranged. It's a problem for all major parties. They seem to only consider the intention in drafting the law, not what it actually entails (or could entail). Brown using terror legislation on Iceland would be another example.

Freggles

Paging Tim

George Osborne spotted firing machine gun on holiday in Vietnam

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/19/george-osborne-spotted-firing-machine-gun-on-holiday-in-vietnam?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Theuniondivvie

Sean_F said:

PlatoSaid said:

Mortimer said:

Note to Corbyn: to win you need to get actual Tories to vote Labour. People who have voted Tory since 2005. Not people who thought about it whilst queuing for regurgitated quinoa in a pop up stand in Hackney.

What does quinoa taste like? Or look like? I've never seen it in the flesh and no desire to either.

Is regurgitated quinoa something Gwyeth Paltrow sources from ethically sourced seagulls?

Regurgitated quinoa joins coffee made from weasel vomit and cat excrement and Frey pies as food I never want to try.

The coffee beans are only sourced from poop rather than vomit, if that makes any difference.

Sandpit

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

On the face of it, this sounds insane:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-37118850

A man cleared of a rape charge is now not eligible for benefits, legal aid and police measures mean he can't apply for most jobs. He's now sleeping rough.

Kafkaesque -- leave aside the sex and crime angle and the problem is that no-one in the benefits office has the authority to override the rigid guidelines around benefits, and this spiralled into the same situation on legal aid. Whitehall knows best, except for all sorts of edge-cases that IDS or New Labour never considered.

Surely some kind lawyer can take this on Pro Bono?

The guy was found not guilty by a jury of his peers, his treatment is the sort of disgrace that would make us go mad if it were happening in another country.

PlatoSaid

Just for our train fans

Owen Smith
"Isambard Kingdom Brunel wld look at our trains and he'd recognise them because they haven't changed since he built them- we need to invest"

woody662

PlatoSaid said:

Just for our train fans

Owen Smith
"Isambard Kingdom Brunel wld look at our trains and he'd recognise them because they haven't changed since he built them- we need to invest"

Where are all these magic money trees coming from?

MattW

PlatoSaid said:

Just for our train fans

Owen Smith
"Isambard Kingdom Brunel wld look at our trains and he'd recognise them because they haven't changed since he built them- we need to invest"

Fatuous thing to say.

Has Mr Smith got a train design in his back pocket that doesn't look like a train?

How will he make it fit the Roman gauge?

Pulpstar

PlatoSaid said:

Just for our train fans

Owen Smith
"Isambard Kingdom Brunel wld look at our trains and he'd recognise them because they haven't changed since he built them- we need to invest"

Owen Smith and Jezza are playing a game of idiot top trumps:

Owen: "I'll start with lets go soft on ISIS"

Jez: "Won't bother with enacting NATO art 5"

Owen: "Trains haven't changed since 1850s"

tlg86

PlatoSaid said:

Just for our train fans

Owen Smith
"Isambard Kingdom Brunel wld look at our trains and he'd recognise them because they haven't changed since he built them- we need to invest"

Err.....

http://tinyurl.com/jpresu4

The Stadler trains are going to be articulated which I think means coaches sharing bogies.

MaxPB

I've been researching Moltex this morning. Very interesting reactor design, and i think it might actually solve the issue of salt corrosion of the reactor vessel. The government should do everything possible to make Moltex reactors into an exportable good for the UK.

AlastairMeeks

I have a strong dislike for the sex ban order, but I'm very wary about taking that BBC report at face value. The only viewpoint that we have other than that of the subject of the order is the following:

"In response, a spokesman for the Department of Work and Pensions said: "We don't recognise this account of events but would urge Mr O'Neill to contact us as soon as possible if he does want our help to get back into work." "

That suggests to me that there is a different interpretation of the facts out there.

Sean_F

Theuniondivvie said:

Sean_F said:

PlatoSaid said:

Mortimer said:

Note to Corbyn: to win you need to get actual Tories to vote Labour. People who have voted Tory since 2005. Not people who thought about it whilst queuing for regurgitated quinoa in a pop up stand in Hackney.

What does quinoa taste like? Or look like? I've never seen it in the flesh and no desire to either.

Is regurgitated quinoa something Gwyeth Paltrow sources from ethically sourced seagulls?

Regurgitated quinoa joins coffee made from weasel vomit and cat excrement and Frey pies as food I never want to try.

The coffee beans are only sourced from poop rather than vomit, if that makes any difference.

Indonesian Cat Shit is the world's most expensive coffee, but it has a rival in Vietnamese Weasel Puke.

rural_voter

DecrepitJohnL said:

MaxPB said:

Glad to see the Mayor finally addressing the alarming rate of closure in London's club and bar scene. Hopefully the 24h tube service will help longer opening hours. I know when I used to do these things that I would weigh up the cost of staying out late with how much fun it was. 9/10 times the cost of additional drinks and a taxi came to a figure that didn't justify staying out late. I'm sure I wasn't alone. The night tube is going to be great, I just hope that TfL can extend it to more days and more lines.

The tabloids will surely have photographers primed for snaps of empty carriages and/or passed-out passengers.

TfL does illustrate some advantages of a publicly-owned publicly-accountable, integrated rail and bus service with integrated ticketing compared to rural England.

Friends who retired & moved from Yorkshire back to London (hubbie was born in London) are ecstatic at the higher quality of the public transport system and have got rid of their car. Despite being almost of bus pass age, I couldn't consider that.

Incidentally, every time Jeremy Corbyn now opens his mouth it seems to be a gaffe. Even I could have framed a hypothetical question-type response to the Russia question. Either he's not very bright, or he's awful at thinking on his feet, or both. Even John McDonnell could do better.

PlatoSaid

Pulpstar said:

PlatoSaid said:

Just for our train fans
:
Owen Smith
"Isambard Kingdom Brunel wld look at our trains and he'd recognise them because they haven't changed since he built them- we need to invest"

Owen Smith and Jezza are playing a game of idiot top trumps:

Owen: "I'll start with lets go soft on ISIS"

Jez: "Won't bother with enacting NATO art 5"

Owen: "Trains haven't changed since 1850s"

I find myself and then wondering if I've missed some greater intellectual truth - then again.

FF43

IanB2 said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did a bit of research.

Excluding 1970 when the polls were wrong, David Cameron is the only PM to resign whilst leading in the polls, I reckon Mrs May's ratings is the cherry on the parfait that is Cameron's polling legacy.

Come on TSE. The latest popular (unpopular??) things poll put the Tory brand ahead of Cameron.

He forgot he was a Tory. Lib Dem Prime Minister is what he will be remembered as.

He'll be remembered as the one whose gamble took us out of Europe. Unless of course the UK does fall apart in which case the back of the tombstone will be needed as well. Nothing really to do with being LibDem; a second coalition would not have made the gamble.

Also Cameron's unpopularity in the last months of his premiership were entirely to do with the EU. For most of his office he was seen much more favourably than his party.

DecrepitJohnL

AlastairMeeks said:

I have a strong dislike for the sex ban order, but I'm very wary about taking that BBC report at face value. The only viewpoint that we have other than that of the subject of the order is the following:

"In response, a spokesman for the Department of Work and Pensions said: "We don't recognise this account of events but would urge Mr O'Neill to contact us as soon as possible if he does want our help to get back into work." "

That suggests to me that there is a different interpretation of the facts out there.

You are too kind. It suggests to me the DWP does not know and probably cannot find out just what the benefits office staff actually said. It's a non-denial denial, and the DWP does not go on to say that a claimant would *not* be refused benefits if he declined to apply for "suitable" jobs involving phones and computers.

PlatoSaid

Sean_F said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Sean_F said:

PlatoSaid said:

Mortimer said:

Note to Corbyn: to win you need to get actual Tories to vote Labour. People who have voted Tory since 2005. Not people who thought about it whilst queuing for regurgitated quinoa in a pop up stand in Hackney.

What does quinoa taste like? Or look like? I've never seen it in the flesh and no desire to either.

Is regurgitated quinoa something Gwyeth Paltrow sources from ethically sourced seagulls?

Regurgitated quinoa joins coffee made from weasel vomit and cat excrement and Frey pies as food I never want to try.

The coffee beans are only sourced from poop rather than vomit, if that makes any difference.

Indonesian Cat Shit is the world's most expensive coffee, but it has a rival in Vietnamese Weasel Puke.

A taste I've no desire to acquire. Apparently Gwyneth is keen on cockroach milk as her next health craze. I can't believe Olympic champions like Phelps are covered in cupping bruises. What immense nonsense. I'd give him a love bite for free.