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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Use your political forecasting skills to enter the 2016 PB
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Use your political forecasting skills to enter the 2016 PB Labour leadership PRIZE Competition
Thanks to Mark Hopkins and his NoJam widget we’ve prepared another PB Prize competition. Simply predict who’ll win the LAB contest and the winning margin. There’s a tie-breaker question as well – the turnout.
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Any news on the UKIP contest? It seems to have gone quiet.
Is someone, somewhere, still hankering for the return of Dr Death?
A lot depends on what happens when the phoney war over Brexit ends, and Article 50 invoked. The Bitter Enders will not agree with anything less than total withdrawal.
Of course, Nigel could really be planning a new movement or party and then UKIP would be fighting for its life.
"Playing the bagpipes daily could be fatal, warn doctors"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-3753129/Could-bagpipe-lung-Warning-toxic-mould-inside-wind-instruments-like-trombone-saxophone.html
Mike has the results. As per his earlier post, he will put them out at some point.
I am not suggesting the task has been delegated to Russian boxing judges!
I blame Jeremy Corbyn.
Under JC, all threads will be published in the time and order they are supposed to, as people driven politics will ensure only worthy topics, rather than covering resignations of traitors, are prepared.
Not long until Spa kicks off. Bit of a tricky track to go back to after a break, as both low and high downforce setups are valid approaches.
It contains the greatest simile in PB, nay, human history.
Question: is this the largest flow of gold in or out of this country since a certain G Brown sold our reserves at bottom dollar prices?
"I am utterly appalled by the disgraceful way Corbyn has been treated by some of his parliamentary colleagues and by the mainstream media.
I do not agree with everything he advocates (Indeed I may well disagree with more than half of it) and I am by no means convinced that he will lead the Labour Party to victory at the next election.
He is however clearly someone capable of independent thought, he is willing to listen and he does offer a refreshing change from the idea of merely offering a top-down vision of self-serving blandness.
He also appears to have been right many times in the past when others followed a more fashionable route."
I've gone for Corbyn to win with a 10% margin (my turnout prediction was basically random as I don't know the selectorate well enough!)
May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.
Mixed news for Europe though, French manufacturing still poor, German services down a fair amount, composite PMI across the bloc is pretty steady.
... ever since May 2010
A pure Gold medal would cost $21k.
Whenever one comes up for auction they tend to go for a little more than those values though!
http://www.compoundchem.com/2016/08/15/olympic-medals/
There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.
Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.
People on both sides of the debate would prefer there to be a crippling recession, riots in the streets and possibly civil war rather than lose a small amount of face.
Administrator Tom Logan said: “I predicted Brexit would cause a recession, so I’m hoping everyone will lose their jobs so I can be proved right to some pillocks on the internet.
“Ideally I’d like to see a 1930s-style depression but I’m not fussy. Even a few companies pulling out of the UK and devastating local communities would be a big ‘up yours’ to the smug Brexit gits.”
http://m.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/being-proved-right-about-brexit-more-important-than-future-of-uk-20160823112768
Even if Corbyn is beatable, does anyone really think that Smith is the guy to do it?
At best it could be said to have been misleading based on a few days of uncertainty, at worst it could be said to be politically motivated and driving the 'remoaner' narrative, neither of which are good for their reputation. We'll just have to wait a bit for the usual data release.
in any case, even if it is initially a negotiating position, it has to be one the government is prepared to implement if necessary otherwise the other side won't take it seriously.
We'll get the basic deal, which means our exports to the EU will go down very significantly. I suppose those that celebrate declining export shares to the EU will be vindicated.
What a farcical and desperate mess Labour have become. Years in the political wilderness beckon as a substantial proportion of the Labour vote drifts away determined not to allow the Jezzbollah the reigns of power.
What comes first ....
A. The next Labour government.
B. Sotheby's auctioning OGH's golden strand Faberge hairpieces.
C. Malcolmg denouncing turnips
D. Asteroid hit organized from Finchley Road
Tough call ....
Because the UK is uniquely reliant on the importation of capital. Our current account deficit in the first half of 2016 was 7% of GDP.
If we have to close the gap by rapidly increasing our savings rate (which is how Spain closed the gap in 2012-13), it will be extremely painful.
The European automotive industry is just that: European. Even the much vaunted Nissan Sunderland plant gets its diesel engines from Renault.
It makes sense for both sides to have a tariff-free agreement on goods. How that's dressed up and presented is immaterial. Whether EU27 domestic politics will permit that is also open to question.
I've read enough now to know that while the heads of agreement might (might!) come quite quickly, there are going to be huge chunks of boring detail (e.g. transitional EU27 access to UK fishing waters, legislative equivalency on product name misuse, rinse & repeat 10,000 times) that will bore the electorate to tears, and only matter to sectional interests.
I've also read enough to realise that the media are almost invariably wrong, whichever side they're pushing. Someone pushed a Vanity Fair article on to my timeline last night and it was eye-wateringly bad across the board.
I'm still hoping that May will try to widen the UK's offer as much as possible - a security, intelligence and economic framework, rather than just a variation on the {Swiss, Canada, EEA) themes. Let's see.
'Man Stabbed In Car Park 'Sword Attack' In Liverpool'
http://tinyurl.com/z2pcjbk
It is not true that double negatives don't confuse people.