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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At this stage, 22 months before GE2010, this is how the Sun

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited July 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At this stage, 22 months before GE2010, this is how the Sunday Times YouGov poll had it

The date, July 7th, means that we are exactly 22 months away from May 7th 2015 – the day laid down in the Fixed Parliament Act for the next general election.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Mr. Smithson.

    There is a Wimbledon final on!
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    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    what is the score? None of the TV channels in Ljubljana are covering it.
    AveryLP said:

    Mr. Smithson.

    There is a Wimbledon final on!

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Murray won first set.

    Currently 3-4 30-30 Murray serving in Second Set.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    3-4 30-40!!!
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    3-4 Deuce
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    3-4 A Murray
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Deuce
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    A Djokovic
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    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Thanks, Is Alex Salmond in the royal box?
    AveryLP said:

    Murray won first set.

    Currently 3-4 30-30 Murray serving in Second Set.

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Deuce
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Time will tell, but difficult not to foresee Tories and Lib Dems recovering at expense of Labour and Ukip, especially if the economy is doing ok. A Labour lead of only 8 after the effect of Ukip is poor, but then given the extent of Labour's defeat and the blame still attached to them on the economy we shouldn't be surprised really. Having said that, there are still too many people who don't trust the Tories on a variety of things, so coalition part 2 here we come...
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    A Murray
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    4-4 Second Set

    [That's your lot!]
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks, Is Alex Salmond in the royal box?

    AveryLP said:

    Murray won first set.

    Currently 3-4 30-30 Murray serving in Second Set.

    Salmond is seated behind Cameron. The negative energy radiating from Salmond should be blocked and neutralised by the PM's force field.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks, Is Alex Salmond in the royal box?

    AveryLP said:

    Murray won first set.

    Currently 3-4 30-30 Murray serving in Second Set.

    He was. Currently gone to get a third helping of strawberries and cream.

    [4-5 with service]
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    5-5
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Murray has two break points.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013
    Murray breaks. Up 6-5. Serving for 2 set lead.

    Salmond finishes Duke of Kent's bowl of strawberries.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    30-0
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Set point
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,921
    @tim, @avery - at current posting rates, AveryLP will exceed tim as the site's most prolific poster at approximately 21:09
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Murray is British.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL

    Sixth Form Poet @sixthformpoet
    We can only imagine the fun Andy Murray and Ivan Lendl must have when they party together.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    rcs1000 said:

    @tim, @avery - at current posting rates, AveryLP will exceed tim as the site's most prolific poster at approximately 21:09

    I caution against using your Spanish GDP growth model, Robert.

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    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    for Plato. Some very cunning moggies
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/07/100708141620.htm
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    In the Sunday Times polls Labour haven't had 4 weeks in a row below 40 since September 2010
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    for Plato. Some very cunning moggies
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/07/100708141620.htm

    What little tinkers!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    edited July 2013
    Personally I am planning to bring tea forward. (Oh god did I say that???)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Super pix

    RT @ayorkshireman: @jessbrammar Ed needed his for the death stare to work pic.twitter.com/DOh3AubtpJ

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BOlN7DrCQAAb_Vi.jpg:large
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Murray 2-0 up in third set.

    Salmond now rooting for more food in refuse bins.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Have we ever seen a party just kicked out of government enjoy the poll boost that Labour got almost as soon as the coalition was formed? I have asked on here a few times and no-one has ever been able to point to another example. It occured before anything happened in terms of legislation or the economy, before any promises could be broken. It was a specific reaction to the coalition. We are in uncharted waters.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    If the Tories make up as much ground as Labour did, they will finish 9 points ahead in 2015...

    I don't expect them to do that well, but I do expect them to finish ahead in the Popular Vote.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    AveryLP said:

    Murray 2-0 up in third set.

    Salmond now rooting for more food in refuse bins.

    Have you read the ST? he is on a bikini diet, allegedly.

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,964
    edited July 2013
    MonikerDiCanio said:


    Salmond is seated behind Cameron. The negative energy radiating from Salmond should be blocked and neutralised by the PM's force field.

    Google
    'Curse of Cameron' - 12,800,000 results
    'Curse of Salmond' - 963,000 results, and I'll bet quite a few of those would be PB posts by you.

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    DavidL said:

    AveryLP said:

    Murray 2-0 up in third set.

    Salmond now rooting for more food in refuse bins.

    Have you read the ST? he is on a bikini diet, allegedly.

    An itsy bitsy teeny weeny yellow and black polka dot bikini diet?

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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Theuniondivvie said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:


    Salmond is seated behind Cameron. The negative energy radiating from Salmond should be blocked and neutralised by the PM's force field.

    Google
    'Curse of Cameron' - 12,800,000 results
    'Curse of Salmond' - 963,000 results, and I'll bet quite a few of those would be PB posts by you.

    I hope we can put aside politics as we cheer Surrey's and Scotland's hero Andy Murray on to victory and glory .

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Oh dear!

    An outlier?
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,964
    edited July 2013
    MonikerDiCanio said:


    I hope we can put aside politics as we cheer Surrey's and Scotland's hero Andy Murray on to victory and glory .

    Not for that embodiment of PB Tory-ness apparently.

    ' Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 1h
    If Murray wins will he wrap himself in a Union flag or a Scottish flag? Or no flag? If the Union, big humiliation for Salmond'
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    Theuniondivvie said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:


    I hope we can put aside politics as we cheer Surrey's and Scotland's hero Andy Murray on to victory and glory .

    Not for that embodiment of PB Tory-ness apparently.

    ' Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 1h
    If Murray wins will he wrap himself in a Union flag or a Scottish flag? Or no flag? If the Union, big humiliation for Salmond'
    Your are getting ahead of yourself. This is not over.

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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SouthamObserver

    'Have we ever seen a party just kicked out of government enjoy the poll boost that Labour got almost as soon as the coalition was formed? '

    No,because there are usually two opposition parties.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,455
    edited July 2013
    Former Hendon MP Andrew Dismore has been re-selected by Labour to contest the seat in 2015. The constituency is Labour's number 3 target:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=0
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Murray remembers he's British.

    Salmond now eating his bikini.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited July 2013
    - "But will things be different with a coalition?"

    Yes. The smaller coalition party nearly always gets shafted.

    Recent examples:
    Lab-LD coalition in Scotland in 2007
    Lab-PC coalition in Wales in 2011
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    john_zims said:

    No,because there are usually two opposition parties.

    In Scotland we have three (and a half). None of them has received a boost since the 2011 general election.

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    TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    Plato said:

    Super pix

    RT @ayorkshireman: @jessbrammar Ed needed his for the death stare to work pic.twitter.com/DOh3AubtpJ

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BOlN7DrCQAAb_Vi.jpg:large

    That's a great picture.

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    That was ridiculous. Novak won some of those points 3x and still lost. Just incredible.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Hertsmere, if you are still out there, Murray is serving for the tournament.

    15-0 up
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    1
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    30-0
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    2
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    3
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    40-0

    Tournament point.

    Salmond has eaten Miliband.
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    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Yep, still here, I layed Murray at 2-0 and cashed out when 4-2 down in the 3rd set.
    AveryLP said:

    Hertsmere, if you are still out there, Murray is serving for the tournament.

    15-0 up

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013
    Salmond has burped.

    40-15
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    AARRRGGGHHH
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Salmond has vomited down the back of the Duke of Kent's suit.

    40-30
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Salmond is now eating the vomit.

    Deuce
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    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    edited July 2013
    Stop making me laugh out loud, I'm getting funny looks from the locals!
    AveryLP said:

    Salmond has vomited down the back of the Duke of Kent's suit.

    40-30

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Djokovic has A.
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    tim said:

    Michael Deacon ‏@MichaelPDeacon
    So Cameron doesn't wear a tie to the G8, but he does wear a tie on a scalding hot day at Centre Court. That man is an enigma

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam
    Ed Miliband avoids the middle aged Oakley trap at centre court...

    Cam acknowledges that he was accused of dressing "scruffily" at the G8 but said we should have been told about the back room discussions on dress code where Putin wanted everyone to be bare-chested and on horseback. My own secret sources told me that Angela did not approve of Putin's suggestion.

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Deuce
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    A Djokovic
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    I feel a bit cheap saying this, but is 66/1 on the Royal Baby being called Andrew about to become value? Just asking.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Deuce.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Championship point.

    Salmond has eaten the umpire.
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    https://twitter.com/Sam_Con/status/353898341081427971/photo/1
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Salmond has exploded in the manner of M. McCreosote.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    If that had gone to a 4th I think he would have collapsed. Brilliant, brilliant play.
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    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    The hotel bar is playing Freedom by David Hasselhoff.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Well it was a 79 year wait, but Britain finally has a Wimbledon Mens' Champion, well done Andy Murray!
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,918
    Brilliant and very well deserved.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Send congrats to Murray, that brilliant BRITISH player. LOL
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    MikeK - Well he still is, certainly until the end of next year, and based on present polls probably even then!
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,918
    Who is sat next to Gerard Butler at Wimbledon?
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    YES!! Murray!!
    Claire Stewart ‏@stvclaire 5m

    Picture speaks for itself....tears of joy in Dunblane! pic.twitter.com/PqHyvNy2Zb
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Who is sat next to Gerard Butler at Wimbledon?

    Bradley Cooper isn't it?
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,918
    Even if there was an independent Scotland I would still be supporting a Scottish player unless he was directly up against an Englishman. Well done Murray.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,964
    edited July 2013
    'David Schneider ‏@davidschneider 32m
    Meanwhile, in the crowd, someone's about to commit a murder http://tinyurl.com/kbtsye9 (via @OwenJones84 @helenlewis etc) #wimbledonfinal'

    Two murders, I'd say.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,918
    kle4 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Who is sat next to Gerard Butler at Wimbledon?

    Bradley Cooper isn't it?
    Ah yes, that's the feller. Must say they both look bloody good in those suits. Real style.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    What a day! Murray wins Wimbledon and Dan Hodges is wrong, wrong, wrong!
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited July 2013
    Arise Sir Andrew Murray . SPotY , you bet. Magnificent performance under extreme pressure.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    I think Toby Young wins the award for 'first pundit to try and make a political point about Murray's win'. It's already up:

    Andy Murray wins Wimbledon. This is great news for Cameron – and the Union

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100225227/andy-murray-wins-wimbledon-this-is-great-news-for-cameron-and-the-union/
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    I think Toby Young wins the award for 'first pundit to try and make a political point about Murray's win'. It's already up:

    Andy Murray wins Wimbledon. This is great news for Cameron – and the Union

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100225227/andy-murray-wins-wimbledon-this-is-great-news-for-cameron-and-the-union/

    Wee Eck trying to get a Saltire in shot was almost a contender, but the happiest man in centre court is Ed. He gets a break for a day
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,964
    old_labour said:

    What a day! Murray wins Wimbledon and Dan Hodges is wrong, wrong, wrong!

    Tbf one of those events is much more infrequent than the other.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Matt Chorley
    @MattChorley
    It's like Nick Clegg watching the snooker at the Crucible and waving a "Yes to AV" banner pic.twitter.com/gE6bHzp5Ti
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Theuniondivvie said:

    old_labour said:

    What a day! Murray wins Wimbledon and Dan Hodges is wrong, wrong, wrong!

    Tbf one of those events is much more infrequent than the other.
    As much as Tories love to read Dan Hodges during the darker times for their party, I do wonder if Murray will win another Slam before Hodges is right again. I suppose the next Slam is some way away, so given the volume of articles he writes, the odds are still in Dan's favour even so.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,918
    Theuniondivvie said:

    'David Schneider ‏@davidschneider 32m
    Meanwhile, in the crowd, someone's about to commit a murder http://tinyurl.com/kbtsye9 (via @OwenJones84 @helenlewis etc) #wimbledonfinal'

    Two murders, I'd say.

    I wish we had the like button back. That picture is awesome.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013
    Theuniondivvie said:

    old_labour said:

    What a day! Murray wins Wimbledon and Dan Hodges is wrong, wrong, wrong!

    Tbf one of those events is much more infrequent than the other.

    We should rename the tw+ts PB Hodges in his honour.
    Susan ‏@marthasydenham

    '@mrmarksteel Better prediction than poor old Dan Hodges. 2 sets in he declared he 'knew Murray would blow it'. Glad you're on our side :)
    *Tears of laughter etc*

    What a great day. :D


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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Wonderful.
    Mike Wade ‏@mikewadejourno

    Dunblane Centre at the moment when @Andy_Murray won pic.twitter.com/r0BBUko8AX
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    A Brit has won Wimbledon and the Sun is Out, unless the Queen dies, all other news, including politics is reduced to a footnote for at least the next week!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Ed_Miliband: Congratulations Andy Murray. A historic and amazing moment for him and for the whole country.

    P.S. Thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, thankyou,
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Wimbledon Ball tonight.

    Andy Murray and Marion Bartoli to lead the first dance.
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Good for him!

    (Originally posted on the next thread but no-one else is there)
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SouthamObserver said:

    Have we ever seen a party just kicked out of government enjoy the poll boost that Labour got almost as soon as the coalition was formed? I have asked on here a few times and no-one has ever been able to point to another example. It occured before anything happened in terms of legislation or the economy, before any promises could be broken. It was a specific reaction to the coalition. We are in uncharted waters.

    If you think through the implications, all/virtually all Labour's gains are from disaffected LibDems i.e. that EdM has not "won" any on his own merits.

    Therefore, he is at risk from some of those returning to the LDs. And that's probably not something he can necessarily control. Doesn't feel like a particularly secure position
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    Max_EdinburghMax_Edinburgh Posts: 347
    I rarely have anything good to say about Hibs fans but that was a tremendous performance by Andy Murray. Although my girlfriend seemed far more interested in some guy in the crowd called Gerrard Butler . . . .
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    1936 Fred Perry - Liberals part of natiional government
    1977 Virginia Wade - The Lib-Lab pact
    2013 Andy Murray - The CON-LD coalition

    Spot the connection
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Who is sat next to Gerard Butler at Wimbledon?

    Its Bradley Cooper with Gerald Butler, by far the best eye candy in the crowd at Wimbledon today. :)

    Superb performance by Andy Murray today, still cannot believe he beat Djokovic in three sets in that final. Also thought that Djokovic was a true sportsman in his post match interview on centre court. Andy was hugging that Wimbledon trophy tightly after he was awarded it, so he better not let it go next year. No pressure mind. :)

    And the silly misjudged political stunt of the day goes to Alex Salmond, he just cannot help himself.

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,206
    Juts got back from Epping-Ongar! All I can say is YESSSS! Andy Murray won! And in straight sets! At last! 77 years of waiting over! And words to that effect! :)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,206
    Is it true that tim has been deported to Jordan?

    :)
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    On topic, I don't see the LibDem defectors refecting. The move was immediate and persistent. It's not like a normal mid-term voter sulk.

    That said,
    1) Not all the lead is lefty ex-LibDems, and I'd expect the rest to swing back, maybe quite a lot, especially ex-Tories currently saying UKIP.
    2) Leader ratings probably get more important as the election gets closer, and the nation isn't exactly in the grip of Ed-mania.

    So I'd just assume the various effects cancel out and you get normal by-election swingback, which IIUC is currently pointing to a Labour majority a few seats less than zero.
This discussion has been closed.