Incidentally, on financial passporting, Moody's say we could manage without it:
Simon Ainsworth, Senior Vice President at Moody’s, says:
“In particular, we consider that the third country equivalence provisions contained within the incoming MIFID 2 EU directive may provide firms with an alternative means of accessing the single market. The complexity of (quickly) unwinding the status quo and a desire to minimise the initial impact on European domiciled banks will likely lead to the preservation of most cross-border rights to undertake business.”
Yes, we've been talking about it at work, well not me, but I've read the memos and equivalence is our most likely route for the short to medium term. Eventually we may want to formalise it in a treaty or break the link and go it alone, but doing the latter immediately will be a tough sell.
I think the EU hoping for import substitution in financial services is as fanciful as the UK hoping for import substitution for semi-manufactured goods. Neither the EU no UK are suited to replacing them. ...
Depends on the exact sector, surely? Insurance, for example, can easily be handled by Eurozone firms.
@tnewtondunn: No10: "The recommissioning of the Royal Yacht Britannia is not on the agenda". A thousand ageing hearts are broken.
Realistically it never was. AIUI it runs on a type of oil the Royal Navy no longer uses - one of the reasons it wasn't used in the Falklands war, despite its supposed additional role as a hospital ship.....
Clearly it's time to build a new one. A prestige project for our shipbuilding industry. Aren't the carriers almost finished?
I think the EU hoping for import substitution in financial services is as fanciful as the UK hoping for import substitution for semi-manufactured goods. Neither the EU no UK are suited to replacing them. ...
Depends on the exact sector, surely? Insurance, for example, can easily be handled by Eurozone firms.
Yes, of course but then specifically for insurance London has the most solvency 2 ready firms in Europe. It's an area where they are playing catch up and an area where we would be likely to use equivalency. Which is the other point, we start from a 100% equivalent base, no new laws would need to be passed for the UK to have equivalence with EU market rules.
The Single Passport is an interesting one. As usual @cyclefree's comments have been very informative. The reality is that London is the financial centre of the EU. Excluding themselves from some of those services in the hope that they become available indigenously seems to me to be a considerable risk to EU competitiveness, especially for big exporters like Germany. But politicians interested in the local opportunities often miss the bigger picture.
Can you think of any other areas? It was not intended to be a definitive list.
...
The other major area is probably foreign policy. EU foreign policy has no teeth if it isn't backed by two major military powers. Leaving it to the unreliable French to police EU foreign policy may leave the EU looking very weak. Its an area where I expect a non-binding bilateral treaty for military and foreign policy co-operation will come forward.
The I think the idea that the UK will enter into a military and foreign policy treaty with the EU to be a non-starter. We may, as part of normal diplomatic relations co-operate, with the EU on some foreign policy initiatives. We may co-operate on some military activities with individual EU countries (most noticeably France). However, the idea that we would sign a treaty on military matters with the EU that involves us outside NATO is not going to happen.
The EU looks weak militarily because it is weak. Most of the EU has essentially disarmed .
@MrHarryCole: 90 mins of howling about Brexit. LibDems off to a brisk start here in Brighton this morning. They're flying EU flags in the hall.
Well in fairness there is a significant number of potential voters who were disappointed about the result and a medium sized minority who have shown a reluctance to move on or accept it and a smallish number of those who might think that this is the most important thing and influence their vote, some of whom, maybe, don't vote Lib Dem already.
Actually, as a strategy that did not work out as well as I thought.
The trouble with the LibDems wrapping themselves in EU flags is that it's fighting a war which is over. What are they going to do when Brexit has happened? Become a campaign for rejoining?
I do wonder if they've really thought this one through.
What would be more feasible for them is to campaigning on joining EEA (assuming we leave in hard brexit) and leave it at that. The idea of us rejoining the EU is a non starter. We'd be vetoed by numerous countries in the EU, and we'd have to rejoin on Euro/Schemgen terms to would be completely toxic to the public.
I think the EU hoping for import substitution in financial services is as fanciful as the UK hoping for import substitution for semi-manufactured goods. Neither the EU no UK are suited to replacing them. ...
Depends on the exact sector, surely? Insurance, for example, can easily be handled by Eurozone firms.
We already have 'Momentum Kids' - at least judging by the stuff my kids come home from the local High School with.
Last week it was the evils of Grammar schools, which both my 11 year old and 14 years old were lectured on in their form groups (under the guise of 'open discussion' - it clearly wasn't seeing as they both came home fully assured that they were without question a totally evil idea).
I hope you have lodged a complaint with the governors of the school. Teachers need to teach not preach.
I would, but I have more pressing things to complain about to the governors. Last week, they informed me at 2:30 that year 7 son, in his first day, had not attended the school all day, by text message and to ask me why not.
I went to the school and got them to find him, which took them 20 minutes. He'd been there all day. According to them he'd been missing since I sent him off at 8;10 in the morning - so to say that I'm not impressed with the school presently is an understatement.
Following on from an interesting segment on the Today program this morning I had a look at Forbes "Unicorn" list, start up companies worth more than $1bn. http://fortune.com/unicorns/
The first depressing thing to note is that of this list of 174 only 16 are in Europe. The slightly less depressing thing is that of that 16, 8 are British. I may have missed it but I did not note a single one in France, Italy or Spain. The rest of the EU unicorns IIRC were either German or Swedish.
@tnewtondunn: No10: "The recommissioning of the Royal Yacht Britannia is not on the agenda". A thousand ageing hearts are broken.
Realistically it never was. AIUI it runs on a type of oil the Royal Navy no longer uses - one of the reasons it wasn't used in the Falklands war, despite its supposed additional role as a hospital ship.....
Clearly it's time to build a new one. A prestige project for our shipbuilding industry. Aren't the carriers almost finished?
Yep, no point resurrecting the past, build a new one that showcases the best of British industry.
I think the EU hoping for import substitution in financial services is as fanciful as the UK hoping for import substitution for semi-manufactured goods. Neither the EU no UK are suited to replacing them. ...
Depends on the exact sector, surely? Insurance, for example, can easily be handled by Eurozone firms.
Where would their re-insurance market be?
Zurich - as usual. Whether they get as good a terms for their facultative or quota-share reinsurance is of course negotiable.
The Single Passport is an interesting one. As usual @cyclefree's comments have been very informative. The reality is that London is the financial centre of the EU. Excluding themselves from some of those services in the hope that they become available indigenously seems to me to be a considerable risk to EU competitiveness, especially for big exporters like Germany. But politicians interested in the local opportunities often miss the bigger picture.
Can you think of any other areas? It was not intended to be a definitive list.
I think the EU hoping for import substitution in financial services is as fanciful as the UK hoping for import substitution for semi-manufactured goods. Neither the EU no UK are suited to replacing them. At least not easily. Business lost in London may not automatically go to Frankfurt, banks may decide it's not worth the hassle at all and locate in a light touch regulatory region and do their business from there. It's one of the reason the government may need to reform the FCA.
The other major area is probably foreign policy. EU foreign policy has no teeth if it isn't backed by two major military powers. Leaving it to the unreliable French to police EU foreign policy may leave the EU looking very weak. Its an area where I expect a non-binding bilateral treaty for military and foreign policy co-operation will come forward.
Which is why, of course, there is now added drive from the federalists to form an EU army.
- They're Republicans who were considering voting for you before they heard you speak, Gary.
Cruel, but true. I could forgive What's Aleppo as a brain fart - but no one injured?!?
He probably meant to say "No-One killed" but his mind was slower than his mouth. More media training required, to think what he's going to say before he says it.
I think the EU hoping for import substitution in financial services is as fanciful as the UK hoping for import substitution for semi-manufactured goods. Neither the EU no UK are suited to replacing them. ...
Depends on the exact sector, surely? Insurance, for example, can easily be handled by Eurozone firms.
Where would their re-insurance market be?
Anywhere in the world. Re-insurance doesn't require passporting, it's not a 'retail' product (that's a simplification, but it comes close enough). It will still be dominated by Swiss Re & Munich Re, Bermuda and co, with the London market & Lloyd's providing key specialist cover.
On the UK-EU deal I think it will ultimately come down to realpolitik but with all sides being able to save face.
For the EU, that will mean the UK doesn't have the same *level* of unrestricted free access to the single market whilst outside the EU, and less say in its rules.
For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled) a more independent trade policy, and good access for financial services but an obvious new political relationship with the EU.
Once we get past that the size of the UK economy, its importance as a major services centre in Europe, its global trade links, and the need for its cooperation in security and defence across the continent will take over.
It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.
It's not the BBC that worries me but the government (both parties). Britain does not do tech well. We pat ourselves on the back because Tim B-L invented the web (which he did, sort-of, but while working for the publicly-funded CERN in Switzerland.
Well yes the BBC's amateurish approach to technology journalism is probably in part due to the way we collectively view technology, and to an extent services in general. We still have this "making physical things is real work" mindset. Uncompetitive heavy industry and crap retailers get far more media attention than they should.
Before dumping too much on how crap the UK is at technology, two questions:
- where does the UK stand in the list of top technology research universities? - which countries do technology better?
I'll give you the US, Germany, Japan and Switzerland. I'll even say that France and South Korea are on a par. That still leaves the UK as technology elite on a global scale. Sure, we could and should strive to do better, but we are not crap.
When I was a kid, the meme was that we were good at inventing stuff but crap at exploiting it commercially. Again, the facts don't truly support that either. Sure, we are not in the US' league, but the Unicorn figures show that we hold our own on that parameter too.
Further to my own comment I would be very interested to know what the PB Brains Trust would consider the essential areas for EU agreement prior to departure. I have been asked to draft a talk on the legal issues arising from Brexit and would welcome ideas as to what areas to concentrate on.
Possibilities include:
The European Patents Office. Member States include Switzerland and Turkey. Do we want to remain members? I would have thought yes.
The European Arrest Warrant. This came into force by a framework agreement in 2002. Do we want to continue with it on a bilateral basis? My guess is no although May was as fan as Home Secretary, but if not what would we look to replace it with in an age of increased anxiety about security and cross border crime?
The Common Fisheries Policy. Almost certainly not but the issues it seeks to address about overfishing in the north sea will remain an issue. What might replace it?
The European Research Council. Important for funding of University research, especially where this takes place transnationally. I don't think membership of this would be possible even if we wished it but how do we seek to stop its funding being used to exclude our Universities from "frontier science"?
The European Customs Union. Turkey is of course a member. Do we want to be? Commits us to having common external tariffs with the EU so it would make new trade agreements almost impossible so I guess not. Likely to be a major factor in whatever negotiations we have about access to the Single Market.
The Single Passport. This has been discussed on here many times. The City wants this but may not be able to get it. If they don't what are our priorities?
Things that are uncontroversial to all 28 current members of the EU, including the UK, as well as the EU Commission and parliament will be agreed. Everything else will be parked.
I expect a trade agreement that covers machinery, chemicals and possibly agricultural products, mainly because those agreements benefit the EU to a relatively greater extent than they benefit us.
I don't expect anything much on services, including Single Passport or "equivalent SM access".
The European Patent Convention is separate from the EU, so I don't see any issues there.
The European Research Council is part of the EU, so I think we will be out of that. We may be able to join in programmes on a bilateral basis later.
Same for the Common Fisheries Policy, although that does have implications for the trade agreement.
If we are out of everything else, there's no point being part of the Customs Union.
The European Arrest Warrant is a "maybe" if all countries including the UK want it.
There will probably be some kind of agreement on immigration. At the least the EU will want to understand what our policy so they can reciprocate.
Further to my own comment I would be very interested to know what the PB Brains Trust would consider the essential areas for EU agreement prior to departure. ....
Things that are uncontroversial to all 28 current members of the EU, including the UK, as well as the EU Commission and parliament will be agreed. Everything else will be parked.
I expect a trade agreement that covers machinery, chemicals and possibly agricultural products, mainly because those agreements benefit the EU to a relatively greater extent than they benefit us.
I don't expect anything much on services, including Single Passport or "equivalent SM access".
The European Patent Convention is separate from the EU, so I don't see any issues there.
The European Research Council is part of the EU, so I think we will be out of that. We may be able to join in programmes on a bilateral basis later.
Same for the Common Fisheries Policy, although that does have implications for the trade agreement.
If we are out of everything else, there's no point being part of the Customs Union.
The European Arrest Warrant is a "maybe" if all countries including the UK want it.
There will probably be some kind of agreement on immigration. At the least the EU will want to understand what our policy so they can reciprocate.
Oh, and Ireland. I expect an EU "border arrangement" that includes all of Northern Ireland. Ireland will join Schengen while offering Irish nationality (and EU citizenship) to any long term Northern Ireland resident. The Common Travel Area will void.
Comments
The EU looks weak militarily because it is weak. Most of the EU has essentially disarmed .
J Peter Donald
Wanted: Ahmad Khan Rahami, 28 year old male, is being sought in connection with the Chelsea bombing. #nyc https://t.co/hSxhMqO7Qh
I went to the school and got them to find him, which took them 20 minutes. He'd been there all day. According to them he'd been missing since I sent him off at 8;10 in the morning - so to say that I'm not impressed with the school presently is an understatement.
The first depressing thing to note is that of this list of 174 only 16 are in Europe. The slightly less depressing thing is that of that 16, 8 are British. I may have missed it but I did not note a single one in France, Italy or Spain. The rest of the EU unicorns IIRC were either German or Swedish.
Jeremy Corbyn’s Supporters Hit Back At Online Criticism Of Momentum Kids https://t.co/sYcIUp10Yw https://t.co/h1GSw55oIP
NEW THREAD
For the EU, that will mean the UK doesn't have the same *level* of unrestricted free access to the single market whilst outside the EU, and less say in its rules.
For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled) a more independent trade policy, and good access for financial services but an obvious new political relationship with the EU.
Once we get past that the size of the UK economy, its importance as a major services centre in Europe, its global trade links, and the need for its cooperation in security and defence across the continent will take over.
It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.
- where does the UK stand in the list of top technology research universities?
- which countries do technology better?
I'll give you the US, Germany, Japan and Switzerland. I'll even say that France and South Korea are on a par. That still leaves the UK as technology elite on a global scale. Sure, we could and should strive to do better, but we are not crap.
When I was a kid, the meme was that we were good at inventing stuff but crap at exploiting it commercially. Again, the facts don't truly support that either. Sure, we are not in the US' league, but the Unicorn figures show that we hold our own on that parameter too.
I expect a trade agreement that covers machinery, chemicals and possibly agricultural products, mainly because those agreements benefit the EU to a relatively greater extent than they benefit us.
I don't expect anything much on services, including Single Passport or "equivalent SM access".
The European Patent Convention is separate from the EU, so I don't see any issues there.
The European Research Council is part of the EU, so I think we will be out of that. We may be able to join in programmes on a bilateral basis later.
Same for the Common Fisheries Policy, although that does have implications for the trade agreement.
If we are out of everything else, there's no point being part of the Customs Union.
The European Arrest Warrant is a "maybe" if all countries including the UK want it.
There will probably be some kind of agreement on immigration. At the least the EU will want to understand what our policy so they can reciprocate.