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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB selectorate polls don’t always get it right – remem

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB selectorate polls don’t always get it right – remember this from June 2007

Remember June 2007? So many Labour MPs had chickened out of doing other than nominate Brown for leader that there weren’t enough left for another candidate to go on the ballot. The result – the party got what the polling indicated was a leader who was an electoral liability – not someone who could lead them into a fourth successive general election victory.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,945
    thirst?
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited September 2016
    Mike, are you suggesting that it's not the Annointed One ?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    #NeverFirst

    :weary:
  • PlatoSaid said:

    I'm shocked

    J Peter Donald
    Wanted: Ahmad Khan Rahami, 28 year old male, is being sought in connection with the Chelsea bombing. #nyc https://t.co/hSxhMqO7Qh

    Known locally as Dave, long history of mental health problems and not a very good Muslim often seen drinking / doing drugs and even might be gay.
  • Fifth or lower, like Scrapheap in the PB fantasy football
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,238
    Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 73,244
    edited September 2016
    I'm not sure the caption on the video is appropriate for family friendly websites like PB, and the misuse of 'its' instead of 'it's' is even more offensive
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,194
    edited September 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.

    No no its not terrorism....its the use of an intentional device....BTW, the guy they want is from Afghanistan. So thats an Afghani and a Somali, we know where Trump is going to go with this.

    I caught a quick thing on I want to say CNN last night where they had a security expert on and he said they had charged 11 Somali's in the Twin Cities (Minneapolis/ St Pauls) with terrorist related offences in the past few months.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,139
    You can back Owen Smith at around 50s for the contest (~ 2% chance) and lay him around 16s for the leadership (6% chance)

    Quite why he has double the chance of becoming next Labour leader through not winning the contest rather than actually winning it I don't know.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    PlatoSaid said:

    I'm shocked

    J Peter Donald
    Wanted: Ahmad Khan Rahami, 28 year old male, is being sought in connection with the Chelsea bombing. #nyc https://t.co/hSxhMqO7Qh

    Known locally as Dave, long history of mental health problems and not a very good Muslim often seen drinking / doing drugs and even might be gay.
    I think the American equivalent of "Dave" is Bubba.....
  • I'm off now, but for those interested, here's my post-race analysis of Singapore:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/singapore-post-race-analysis-2016.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 27,484
    edited September 2016
    FPT

    On the UK-EU deal I think it will ultimately come down to realpolitik but with all sides being able to save face.

    For the EU, that will mean the UK doesn't have the same *level* of unrestricted free access to the single market whilst outside the EU, and less say in its rules. I.e. Leaving the EU does cost you.

    For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled) a more independent trade policy, and good access for financial services but an obvious new political relationship with the EU. I.e. We have taken back some control and got extra migration controls.

    Once we get past that the size of the UK economy, its importance as a major services centre in Europe, its global trade links, and the need for its cooperation in security and defence across the continent will take over.

    It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,945
    Pulpstar said:

    You can back Owen Smith at around 50s for the contest (~ 2% chance) and lay him around 16s for the leadership (6% chance)

    Quite why he has double the chance of becoming next Labour leader through not winning the contest rather than actually winning it I don't know.

    Next year's contest and the one after that.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Bless

    ABC
    UPDATE: Source: Cell phone left behind with pressure cooker helped police identify Rahami: https://t.co/0DyOKLab9P https://t.co/sMgu1rq8jX
  • MaxPB said:

    Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.

    No no its not terrorism....its the use of an intentional device....BTW, the guy they want is from Afghanistan.

    So thats an Afghani and a Somali, we know where Trump is going to go with this.
    And who can blame him....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,238

    FPT

    On the UK-EU deal I think it will ultimately come down to realpolitik but with all sides being able to save face.

    For the EU, that will mean the UK doesn't have the same *level* of unrestricted free access to the single market whilst outside the EU, and less say in its rules.

    For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled) a more independent trade policy, and good access for financial services but an obvious new political relationship with the EU.

    Once we get past that the size of the UK economy, its importance as a major services centre in Europe, its global trade links, and the need for its cooperation in security and defence across the continent will take over.

    It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.

    His comments on the EU being willing to take economic hardship in order to punish the UK have gone down extremely poorly across the bloc.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,800

    It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.

    Except some will argue it's not in "the interests of the major EU member states" for Brexit to be seen as a success.

    What would stop them following suit?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited September 2016
    deleted
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,139
    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    You can back Owen Smith at around 50s for the contest (~ 2% chance) and lay him around 16s for the leadership (6% chance)

    Quite why he has double the chance of becoming next Labour leader through not winning the contest rather than actually winning it I don't know.

    Next year's contest and the one after that.
    Do you seriously think he'll be a candidate for those if they take place.

    Yvette Cooper didn't chuck her hat in the ring this time -

    Stephen Kinnock, Maria Eagle, Benn, Jarvis and plenty of others still to have a pop.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254

    MaxPB said:

    Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.

    No no its not terrorism....its the use of an intentional device....BTW, the guy they want is from Afghanistan.

    So thats an Afghani and a Somali, we know where Trump is going to go with this.
    And who can blame him....
    How do Afganis and Somalis get into the US in the first place? It's not as if they could travel over land or in a small boat.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,194
    edited September 2016
    I see like the Norwegian Nutter, we have some media outlets using "[naturalized] US citizen"...."originally from Afghanistan"....
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited September 2016
    :smiley:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/leftwatch/2016/09/eight-childrens-television-programmes-for-the-enjoyment-and-enlightenment-of-momentum-kids.html

    Bagpuss. The archetypal fat cat had grown obese and lazy from the profits created by the wage slavery of several mice. His capitalist enterprise has since been nationalised, and a committee of mice now control the means of production. Professor Yaffle has been redeployed to more productive work on a collective farm.

    In the Night Garden… The Night Garden has come under threat from ruthless developers, who plan a new airport runway and several thousand unaffordable executive homes. Iggle Piggle and three of the Wottingers were recently arrested after breaking into the Pinky Ponk’s hangar and gluing themselves to its propeller, under the brand of Black Lives Matter UK.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,238
    Scott_P said:

    It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.

    Except some will argue it's not in "the interests of the major EU member states" for Brexit to be seen as a success.

    What would stop them following suit?
    Both sides would spin it as a victory. The EU will say the UK is not in the single market now, and must accept EU trade rules unilaterally in order to sell into the bloc. The UK will say we're out of the EU and able to trade with them without tariffs which ensures out industries are safe and we've got restrictions on unskilled migration and access to welfare.
  • If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,822
    MaxPB said:

    Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.

    FWIW I think there's a fear of copy-cat attacks*, which is why over the summer we've seen repeated efforts to downplay links to terrorists groups, avoid naming suspects, and generally limit publicity. I don't think it's anything suspicious, but merely a tool that has been used before regarding things like school shootings. Of course if you take it to the extreme of saying essentially nothing then other people will fill in the blanks.

    * This is particularly important if the attacks are using simple or improvised means and carried out by individuals. Someone who is already leaning towards supporting an Islamist terror group can see such attacks and think "I could do that", but a larger sophisticated group attack is out of their reach
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    LA Poll for 19th still shows Trump 6.7% ahead with 18.9% black support.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    FPT:
    DavidL said:

    Following on from an interesting segment on the Today program this morning I had a look at Forbes "Unicorn" list, start up companies worth more than $1bn. http://fortune.com/unicorns/

    The first depressing thing to note is that of this list of 174 only 16 are in Europe. The slightly less depressing thing is that of that 16, 8 are British. I may have missed it but I did not note a single one in France, Italy or Spain. The rest of the EU unicorns IIRC were either German or Swedish.

    I think those valuations have as much to do with American investor wishful thinking, as opposed to the actual worth of some of their startup companies.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,194
    edited September 2016
    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.

    FWIW I think there's a fear of copy-cat attacks*, which is why over the summer we've seen repeated efforts to downplay links to terrorists groups, avoid naming suspects, and generally limit publicity. I don't think it's anything suspicious, but merely a tool that has been used before regarding things like school shootings. Of course if you take it to the extreme of saying essentially nothing then other people will fill in the blanks.

    * This is particularly important if the attacks are using simple or improvised means and carried out by individuals. Someone who is already leaning towards supporting an Islamist terror group can see such attacks and think "I could do that", but a larger sophisticated group attack is out of their reach
    Problem is that tactic doesn't work in the modern world with social media. You can't control the narrative by just half reporting stuff and hoping it goes away. Eventually it all comes out and it makes the authorities look like they aren't willing to tell the truth (and they haven't always done so).

    Fear of copycats is one thing, losing trust of your people is far far worse.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    MaxPB said:

    Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.

    1)He's a democrat.
    2) Outside terrorism is even more difficult to defend than internal terrorism
    3) It disadvantages HRC by giving weight to Trumps claims so affects the upcoming election.
    4) He's a tit

    It's a "join the dots" scenario really
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,238
    edited September 2016
    The suspect was born in Afghanistan. Clearly no international link.
  • If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.

    Indeed. Corbyn could have been, and should have been beatable. Notable that none of the actually established people, apart from Eagle were willing to put their neck on the line.
  • If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.

    You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,238

    If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.

    You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.
    Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,194
    edited September 2016
    MaxPB said:

    The suspect was born in Afghanistan. Clearly no international link.

    No no....you obviously haven't got the memo...the spin line to take, this was committed by a US citizen....cough cough cough...born in Afghanistan....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    MaxPB said:

    FPT

    On the UK-EU deal I think it will ultimately come down to realpolitik but with all sides being able to save face.

    For the EU, that will mean the UK doesn't have the same *level* of unrestricted free access to the single market whilst outside the EU, and less say in its rules.

    For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled) a more independent trade policy, and good access for financial services but an obvious new political relationship with the EU.

    Once we get past that the size of the UK economy, its importance as a major services centre in Europe, its global trade links, and the need for its cooperation in security and defence across the continent will take over.

    It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.

    His comments on the EU being willing to take economic hardship in order to punish the UK have gone down extremely poorly across the bloc.
    Drunker's determination to 'punish' the British for their democratic decision - even at the expense of other EU countries and businesses - is surely going to lead to his downfall at some point.
  • MaxPB said:

    The suspect was born in Afghanistan. Clearly no international link.

    No no....you obviously haven't got the memo...the spin line to take, this was committed by a US citizen....cough cough cough...born in Afghanistan....
    Does he have mental health issues?
  • MaxPB said:

    Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.

    There shouldn't be a rush to "dissociate probable terrorism from terroists", but neither should there be a rush to guess who is responsible. (see the heading for this thread - let's have the facts when we know that they are facts, not knee jerk guesses).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,194
    edited September 2016

    MaxPB said:

    The suspect was born in Afghanistan. Clearly no international link.

    No no....you obviously haven't got the memo...the spin line to take, this was committed by a US citizen....cough cough cough...born in Afghanistan....
    Does he have mental health issues?
    Oh of course he will...and not a proper Muslim.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,139
    edited September 2016
    MaxPB said:

    If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.

    You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.
    Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!
    Corbyn will be an even heavier favourite next time round. The membership is trending towards him, and dispirited "Saving Labour" members will not renew their subs.
    In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.

    There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
  • Scott_P said:
    i seem to recall that in '1984' it's the kids who turn their parents in for thought crimes.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,800
    @midlifemason: Back from 1st Momentum Kids session. The neo-liberal little bastards covered my leather jacket in paint as I was explaining post capitalism.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,238

    MaxPB said:

    Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.

    There shouldn't be a rush to "dissociate probable terrorism from terroists", but neither should there be a rush to guess who is responsible. (see the heading for this thread - let's have the facts when we know that they are facts, not knee jerk guesses).
    Absolutely, but the problem is that in pretty much every case of terrorism there seems to have been a rush to blame non-terrorist motives and mental illness immediately only to have it disproved days, or in one case, hours later. Remember the"gas explosion" in Germany, the initial statements from the local authorities were pathetic and it took an overseas report of a failed bomber to get them to release the real information.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2016

    PlatoSaid said:

    I'm shocked

    J Peter Donald
    Wanted: Ahmad Khan Rahami, 28 year old male, is being sought in connection with the Chelsea bombing. #nyc https://t.co/hSxhMqO7Qh

    Known locally as Dave, long history of mental health problems and not a very good Muslim often seen drinking / doing drugs and even might be gay.
    As opposed to Tom from Batley, who, it turns out, didn't have mental health problems when he dispatched Jo Cox.

    Just an ordinary fascist.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,613
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    Following on from an interesting segment on the Today program this morning I had a look at Forbes "Unicorn" list, start up companies worth more than $1bn. http://fortune.com/unicorns/

    The first depressing thing to note is that of this list of 174 only 16 are in Europe. The slightly less depressing thing is that of that 16, 8 are British. I may have missed it but I did not note a single one in France, Italy or Spain. The rest of the EU unicorns IIRC were either German or Swedish.

    I think those valuations have as much to do with American investor wishful thinking, as opposed to the actual worth of some of their startup companies.
    There clearly is a significant bubble in hi-tech at the moment, probably even more in China than in the US.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    MaxPB said:

    The suspect was born in Afghanistan. Clearly no international link.

    No no....you obviously haven't got the memo...the spin line to take, this was committed by a US citizen....cough cough cough...born in Afghanistan....
    Does he have mental health issues?
    Oh of course he will...and not a proper Muslim.
    Possibly even Norwegian.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited September 2016
    @Casino_Royale

    "For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled)"

    Sorry, Mr. Royale, could you please explain that one to us. What does discount mean in this context? How is the Border Force to know who is high skilled and who is low skilled unless there is some pre-arrival method of checking (aka visas or work permits).

    As ever with these discussions the tricky bit is how does the UK quickly and efficiently remove from its shores those that are in breach of their terms of entry? Unless such people as are deemed undesirable can be thrown out then there is not much point in setting up systems to control who comes in. That would seem to me to require the UK to withdraw from the jurisdiction of the ECtHR.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.

    You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.
    Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!
    Corbyn will be an even heavier favourite next time round. The membership is trending towards him, and dispirited "Saving Labour" members will not renew their subs.
    In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.

    There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
    Not to mention the various proposals for rule changes at Conference this year and next - Corbyn's ideas for the membership to decide the Shadow Cabinet members and key policies only serve to further undermine the Parliamentary Labour Party.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,892
    fpt @ Mr Glenn:

    Before dumping too much on how crap the UK is at technology, two questions:

    - where does the UK stand in the list of top technology research universities?
    - which countries do technology better?

    I'll give you the US, Germany, Japan and Switzerland. I'll even say that France and South Korea are on a par. That still leaves the UK as technology elite on a global scale. Sure, we could and should strive to do better, but we are not crap.

    When I was a kid, the meme was that we were good at inventing stuff but crap at exploiting it commercially. Again, the facts don't truly support that either. Sure, we are not in the US' league, but the Unicorn figures show that we hold our own on that parameter too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,139
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.

    You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.
    Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!
    Corbyn will be an even heavier favourite next time round. The membership is trending towards him, and dispirited "Saving Labour" members will not renew their subs.
    In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.

    There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
    Not to mention the various proposals for rule changes at Conference this year and next - Corbyn's ideas for the membership to decide the Shadow Cabinet members and key policies only serve to further undermine the Parliamentary Labour Party.
    Smith started that ball rolling - he was the one who proposed shadow cabinet elections !
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,892

    Scott_P said:
    i seem to recall that in '1984' it's the kids who turn their parents in for thought crimes.

    China, not so long ago, and North Korea still. No need to resort to fiction.
  • @Slackbladder It was a serious mistake for the plotters not to go with Angela Eagle. By going with a very blokish guy, all the allegations of misogyny lost all salience. Angela Eagle would have attracted a lot of unpleasant commentary but that would have made large chunks of the selectorate pause for thought in a way that Owen Smith has never managed.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited September 2016
    Small donations in play

    "The supporters of Candidate Donald Trump have crushed all historic fundraising records for small (under $200/per) “grass roots” donations. Over 2.1 million individual small donations in 3 months.

    For perspective Hillary and Bill Clinton’s small donor base is 2.3 million, as accumulated over their political lifetimes. Donald Trump has amassed a group of 2.1 million small donor contributors since July – 3 months ago – the date of his first email request."

    Interestingly, I've never seen his fundraising tweets - and many pro Trump tweets re YouTube never appear. I've tried it several times to check.

    Those who dismissed this sort of pro Hillary media bias are wrong. I find it really disappointing that this sort of manipulation is going on.

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/19/trump-shatters-all-prior-gop-fundraising-records-2-1-million-small-donations-in-90-days/
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,900
    Betting note: you can get 3% return at Betfair in 3 months for several hundred quid (and 2% for thousands) on "no election in 2016". Do your own research, but I think it's inconceivable that May will call an election before the conerence season, and after that it's really almost too late to call one before running into Xmas.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125203945
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,892
    MaxPB said:

    Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.

    He is the mayor who, upon assuming office, decided that getting rid of horse-drawn carriages from Central Park was the city's top priority.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,238

    @Slackbladder It was a serious mistake for the plotters not to go with Angela Eagle. By going with a very blokish guy, all the allegations of misogyny lost all salience. Angela Eagle would have attracted a lot of unpleasant commentary but that would have made large chunks of the selectorate pause for thought in a way that Owen Smith has never managed.

    Smith's comments haven't really helped either, he seems like a walking, talking stereotype of a boyo form the valleys.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    edited September 2016
    Paul Gasgoigne pleads guilty to racially aggravated public order offence, for comments he made on a radiostage show.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/19/paul-gascoigne-pleads-guilty-to-racially-aggravated-abuse-after/
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.

    There shouldn't be a rush to "dissociate probable terrorism from terroists", but neither should there be a rush to guess who is responsible. (see the heading for this thread - let's have the facts when we know that they are facts, not knee jerk guesses).
    Absolutely, but the problem is that in pretty much every case of terrorism there seems to have been a rush to blame non-terrorist motives and mental illness immediately only to have it disproved days, or in one case, hours later. Remember the"gas explosion" in Germany, the initial statements from the local authorities were pathetic and it took an overseas report of a failed bomber to get them to release the real information.
    Otoh yesterday in Barcelona there was a "huge explosion" with many injured and at least one dead, that probably was due to gas.
  • MTimT said:

    fpt @ Mr Glenn:

    Before dumping too much on how crap the UK is at technology, two questions:

    - where does the UK stand in the list of top technology research universities?
    - which countries do technology better?

    I'll give you the US, Germany, Japan and Switzerland. I'll even say that France and South Korea are on a par. That still leaves the UK as technology elite on a global scale. Sure, we could and should strive to do better, but we are not crap.

    When I was a kid, the meme was that we were good at inventing stuff but crap at exploiting it commercially. Again, the facts don't truly support that either. Sure, we are not in the US' league, but the Unicorn figures show that we hold our own on that parameter too.

    UK universities are still far from great at protecting / promoting / exploiting their discoveries. Lots of world class unis, doing world class research, they could and should be doing a lot more.

    It is changing slowly though, actually one of the knock on effects of universities having to become business focused.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,139
    PlatoSaid said:

    Small donations in play

    "The supporters of Candidate Donald Trump have crushed all historic fundraising records for small (under $200/per) “grass roots” donations. Over 2.1 million individual small donations in 3 months.

    For perspective Hillary and Bill Clinton’s small donor base is 2.3 million, as accumulated over their political lifetimes. Donald Trump has amassed a group of 2.1 million small donor contributors since July – 3 months ago – the date of his first email request.

    Interestingly, I've never seen his fundraising tweets - and many pro Trump tweets re YouTube never appear. I've tried it several times to check.

    Those who dismissed this sort of pro Hillary media bias are wrong. I find it really disappointing that this sort of manipulation is going on.

    "The supporters of Candidate Donald Trump have crushed all historic fundraising records for small (under $200/per) “grass roots” donations. Over 2.1 million individual small donations in 3 months.

    For perspective Hillary and Bill Clinton’s small donor base is 2.3 million, as accumulated over their political lifetimes. Donald Trump has amassed a group of 2.1 million small donor contributors since July – 3 months ago – the date of his first email request.

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/19/trump-shatters-all-prior-gop-fundraising-records-2-1-million-small-donations-in-90-days/

    ''Careless' Hillary' has been debiting the accounts of her donors without authorisation.
  • @Casino_Royale

    "For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled)"

    Sorry, Mr. Royale, could you please explain that one too us. What does discount mean in this context? How is the Border Force to know who is high skilled and who is low skilled unless there is some pre-arrival method of checking (aka visas or work permits).

    As ever with these discussions the tricky bit is how does the UK quickly and efficiently remove from its shores those that are in breach of their terms of entry? Unless such people as are deemed undesirable can be thrown out then there is not much point in setting up systems to control who comes in. That would seem to me to require the UK to withdraw from the jurisdiction of the ECtHR.


    Well if you can dodge the Border Force, then presumably you are high skilled...

  • @Casino_Royale

    "For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled)"

    Sorry, Mr. Royale, could you please explain that one too us. What does discount mean in this context? How is the Border Force to know who is high skilled and who is low skilled unless there is some pre-arrival method of checking (aka visas or work permits).

    As ever with these discussions the tricky bit is how does the UK quickly and efficiently remove from its shores those that are in breach of their terms of entry? Unless such people as are deemed undesirable can be thrown out then there is not much point in setting up systems to control who comes in. That would seem to me to require the UK to withdraw from the jurisdiction of the ECtHR.

    It's not for me to justify HMG policy but the intent and direction of it is clear to me from Hammond's statement on free movement of financial workers from the EU a couple of weeks ago:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/08/european-bankers-will-be-exempt-from-migration-curbs-after-brexi/

    I think there may be a salary test, or some form of income bond. Excluding, say, free movement from those on under £40k a year but allowing it for those above.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,822

    Problem is that tactic doesn't work in the modern world with social media. You can't control the narrative by just half reporting stuff and hoping it goes away. Eventually it all comes out and it makes the authorities look like they aren't willing to tell the truth (and they haven't always done so).

    Fear of copycats is one thing, losing trust of your people is far far worse.

    Sure I'm not saying it will work, or at least work as well as it might have in the past, but I don't think there's anything particularly sinister going on. Terrorists want publicity, and they want a particular message to be disseminated, it's legitimate for authorities to want to limit or counter that.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,207
    Pong said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I'm shocked

    J Peter Donald
    Wanted: Ahmad Khan Rahami, 28 year old male, is being sought in connection with the Chelsea bombing. #nyc https://t.co/hSxhMqO7Qh

    Known locally as Dave, long history of mental health problems and not a very good Muslim often seen drinking / doing drugs and even might be gay.
    As opposed to Tom from Batley, who, it turns out, didn't have mental health problems when he dispatched Jo Cox.

    Just an ordinary fascist.
    Yep, and he should face the death penalty.
  • MaxPB said:

    FPT

    On the UK-EU deal I think it will ultimately come down to realpolitik but with all sides being able to save face.

    For the EU, that will mean the UK doesn't have the same *level* of unrestricted free access to the single market whilst outside the EU, and less say in its rules.

    For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled) a more independent trade policy, and good access for financial services but an obvious new political relationship with the EU.

    Once we get past that the size of the UK economy, its importance as a major services centre in Europe, its global trade links, and the need for its cooperation in security and defence across the continent will take over.

    It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.

    His comments on the EU being willing to take economic hardship in order to punish the UK have gone down extremely poorly across the bloc.
    When the end comes for Juncker it will come very quickly.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,892
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.

    Except some will argue it's not in "the interests of the major EU member states" for Brexit to be seen as a success.

    What would stop them following suit?
    Both sides would spin it as a victory. The EU will say the UK is not in the single market now, and must accept EU trade rules unilaterally in order to sell into the bloc. The UK will say we're out of the EU and able to trade with them without tariffs which ensures out industries are safe and we've got restrictions on unskilled migration and access to welfare.
    For Brexit to be both an economic and political success, we need to be free from automatic application of EU regulations on our industry, and we need the ability to negotiate our own trade deals. Accepting 'EU trade rules unilaterally' has to be a non-starter. Unless you mean something else. Obviously, goods sold into the EU have to meet EU standards, and for any type of FTA we'd assume that NTBs would not be allowed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.

    You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.
    Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!
    Corbyn will be an even heavier favourite next time round. The membership is trending towards him, and dispirited "Saving Labour" members will not renew their subs.
    In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.

    There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
    Not to mention the various proposals for rule changes at Conference this year and next - Corbyn's ideas for the membership to decide the Shadow Cabinet members and key policies only serve to further undermine the Parliamentary Labour Party.
    Smith started that ball rolling - he was the one who proposed shadow cabinet elections !
    I don't see how the likes of John Woodcock and Dan Jarvis can remain in the PLP. We need a market up on the number of Conference season defections. 2 or 3 looks plausible, I wonder if the LDs have one lined up in the next couple of days.
  • Scott_P said:

    It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.

    Except some will argue it's not in "the interests of the major EU member states" for Brexit to be seen as a success.

    What would stop them following suit?
    I have already answered your question in my post.

    The EU will want to be able to point to Britain to say because they voted to Leave they lost this, and haven't got that - plus they are excluded from this and won't ever benefit from that.

    However, over and above that, I don't expect a fuller punishment beating because it would be likely to be even more destabilising for the EU to do so.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,646
    edited September 2016

    MaxPB said:

    FPT

    On the UK-EU deal I think it will ultimately come down to realpolitik but with all sides being able to save face.

    For the EU, that will mean the UK doesn't have the same *level* of unrestricted free access to the single market whilst outside the EU, and less say in its rules.

    For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled) a more independent trade policy, and good access for financial services but an obvious new political relationship with the EU.

    Once we get past that the size of the UK economy, its importance as a major services centre in Europe, its global trade links, and the need for its cooperation in security and defence across the continent will take over.

    It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.

    His comments on the EU being willing to take economic hardship in order to punish the UK have gone down extremely poorly across the bloc.
    When the end comes for Juncker it will come very quickly.
    I don't get this. How on earth can he be got rid of? There's no mechanism. Even if there were, there's no chance of assembling a majority amongst the EU27 and the parliament for throwing everything in the air. So he'll be there until the end of his term (2019).
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    tlg86 said:

    Pong said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I'm shocked

    J Peter Donald
    Wanted: Ahmad Khan Rahami, 28 year old male, is being sought in connection with the Chelsea bombing. #nyc https://t.co/hSxhMqO7Qh

    Known locally as Dave, long history of mental health problems and not a very good Muslim often seen drinking / doing drugs and even might be gay.
    As opposed to Tom from Batley, who, it turns out, didn't have mental health problems when he dispatched Jo Cox.

    Just an ordinary fascist.
    Yep, and he should face the death penalty.
    And those who encouraged him?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,238

    MaxPB said:

    FPT

    On the UK-EU deal I think it will ultimately come down to realpolitik but with all sides being able to save face.

    For the EU, that will mean the UK doesn't have the same *level* of unrestricted free access to the single market whilst outside the EU, and less say in its rules.

    For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled) a more independent trade policy, and good access for financial services but an obvious new political relationship with the EU.

    Once we get past that the size of the UK economy, its importance as a major services centre in Europe, its global trade links, and the need for its cooperation in security and defence across the continent will take over.

    It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.

    His comments on the EU being willing to take economic hardship in order to punish the UK have gone down extremely poorly across the bloc.
    When the end comes for Juncker it will come very quickly.
    I don't get this. How on earth can he be got rid of? There's no mechanism. So he'll be there until the end of his term (2019).
    The major nations could defund the commission until Junker steps down.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,822

    Oh of course he will...and not a proper Muslim.

    Again FWIW I think the "not a proper Muslim" line is a way of disassociating attackers from people who might be similarly inclined but consider themselves devout Muslims. Basically it's saying "he's not a good Muslim, he's a crank". Whether it's true or not, it's a message you want would be Jihadists to hear.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    SkyNews
    A homeland security official says the explosive devices in #NewYork and #NewJersey were linked
  • Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.

    You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.
    Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!
    Corbyn will be an even heavier favourite next time round. The membership is trending towards him, and dispirited "Saving Labour" members will not renew their subs.
    In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.

    There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
    Not to mention the various proposals for rule changes at Conference this year and next - Corbyn's ideas for the membership to decide the Shadow Cabinet members and key policies only serve to further undermine the Parliamentary Labour Party.
    Personally, I can't see there being another challenge before the last year or so before the next GE now. So summer 2019 perhaps. A last desperate effort to avert disaster. By then it should be clear the scale of what is coming.

    A lot could change, but at moment it seems Labour members are determined to allow, or are unable to stop, the party moving to such a left-wing position that it is utterly unelectable under FPTP, given swing voters, marginal seats etc etc. It is purity over power and purity is winning hands down.

    In a sense it might not matter, as the alternative is social democratic Labour and social democracy is in massive retreat all over Europe, so perhaps a party led by Yvette or Ed Balls or Jarvis would still lose badly.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,238
    glw said:

    Oh of course he will...and not a proper Muslim.

    Again FWIW I think the "not a proper Muslim" line is a way of disassociating attackers from people who might be similarly inclined but consider themselves devout Muslims. Basically it's saying "he's not a good Muslim, he's a crank". Whether it's true or not, it's a message you want would be Jihadists to hear.
    Having someone who isn't Muslim say that such and such wasn't a proper Muslim is probably counter productive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003
    2007 had multiple candidates and was decided on preferences, this year there are only 2
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,196
    MTimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.

    Except some will argue it's not in "the interests of the major EU member states" for Brexit to be seen as a success.

    What would stop them following suit?
    Both sides would spin it as a victory. The EU will say the UK is not in the single market now, and must accept EU trade rules unilaterally in order to sell into the bloc. The UK will say we're out of the EU and able to trade with them without tariffs which ensures out industries are safe and we've got restrictions on unskilled migration and access to welfare.
    For Brexit to be both an economic and political success, we need to be free from automatic application of EU regulations on our industry, and we need the ability to negotiate our own trade deals. Accepting 'EU trade rules unilaterally' has to be a non-starter. Unless you mean something else. Obviously, goods sold into the EU have to meet EU standards, and for any type of FTA we'd assume that NTBs would not be allowed.
    Surely for BREXIT to be an economic success, the UK needs to have a higher trend growth after leaving than before, plus a higher trend growth than Germany.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT

    On the UK-EU deal I think it will ultimately come down to realpolitik but with all sides being able to save face.

    For the EU, that will mean the UK doesn't have the same *level* of unrestricted free access to the single market whilst outside the EU, and less say in its rules.

    For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled) a more independent trade policy, and good access for financial services but an obvious new political relationship with the EU.

    Once we get past that the size of the UK economy, its importance as a major services centre in Europe, its global trade links, and the need for its cooperation in security and defence across the continent will take over.

    It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.

    His comments on the EU being willing to take economic hardship in order to punish the UK have gone down extremely poorly across the bloc.
    When the end comes for Juncker it will come very quickly.
    I don't get this. How on earth can he be got rid of? There's no mechanism. So he'll be there until the end of his term (2019).
    The major nations could defund the commission until Junker steps down.
    Sorry, ain't gonna happen. The EU simply doesn't work like that.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,867
    edited September 2016
    Off-topic:

    I'm on the market for a new gaming PC, and I was wondering if anyone here could give some advice on suppliers (ISTR this has been talked about before). I can't be faffed to assemble myself, but would like names of reliable, reputable gaming system builders.

    Also, if anyone has any advice on what to look for, or not. Price range £1,000 to 1,500, not including monitor, keyboard and other peripherals. As it's a gaming PC, good graphics are a must (i.e. GTX 980 performance min). Processor less important, but would like an i7 ideally. Good power supply a must.

    TIA. Doing my part for the post-Brexit vote economy by spending money that would otherwise just sit in the bank gaining cobwebs and f'all interest. :)
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    PlatoSaid said:

    Bless

    ABC
    UPDATE: Source: Cell phone left behind with pressure cooker helped police identify Rahami: https://t.co/0DyOKLab9P https://t.co/sMgu1rq8jX

    Jeff Dunham would have a field day.

  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,196

    Off-topic:

    I'm on the market for a new gaming PC, and I was wondering if anyone here could give some advice on suppliers (ISTR this has been talked about before). I can't be faffed to assemble myself, but would like names of reliable, reputable gaming system builders.

    Also, if anyone has any advice on what to look for, or not. Price range £1,000 to 1,500, not including monitor, keyboard and other peripherals. As it's a gaming PC, good graphics are a must (i.e. GTX 980 performance min). Processor less important, but would like an i7 ideally. Good power supply a must.

    TIA. Doing my part for the post-Brexit vote economy by spending money that would otherwise just sit in the bank gaining cobwebs and f'all interest. :)

    https://www.overclockers.co.uk/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,238

    Off-topic:

    I'm on the market for a new gaming PC, and I was wondering if anyone here could give some advice on suppliers (ISTR this has been talked about before). I can't be faffed to assemble myself, but would like names of reliable, reputable gaming system builders.

    Also, if anyone has any advice on what to look for, or not. Price range £1,000 to 1,500, not including monitor, keyboard and other peripherals. As it's a gaming PC, good graphics are a must (i.e. GTX 980 performance min). Processor less important, but would like an i7 ideally. Good power supply a must.

    TIA. Doing my part for the post-Brexit vote economy by spending money that would otherwise just sit in the bank gaining cobwebs and f'all interest. :)

    I'm just about to go for lunch but I'll do a build for you when I come back, you can build a pretty awesome gaming PC for the kind of budget you have!
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,444
    Labour finally coming round to ending free movement?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/19/labour-urged-to-make-immigration-controls-a-key-brexit-demand

    Fear of UKIP in Labour seats.

    How many Tory seats would be in danger from UKIP if there was a 'betrayal' over immigration? May be a better bet for the tories to go soft brexit, induce a betrayal, which ends up swapping out a bunch of labour seats for UKIP ones, with minimal damage to themselves.

    This also helps put some clear yellow water between the Lib Dems and Labour. LDs for full EEA keeping FM and single market, Labour against it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,719
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    Following on from an interesting segment on the Today program this morning I had a look at Forbes "Unicorn" list, start up companies worth more than $1bn. http://fortune.com/unicorns/

    The first depressing thing to note is that of this list of 174 only 16 are in Europe. The slightly less depressing thing is that of that 16, 8 are British. I may have missed it but I did not note a single one in France, Italy or Spain. The rest of the EU unicorns IIRC were either German or Swedish.

    I think those valuations have as much to do with American investor wishful thinking, as opposed to the actual worth of some of their startup companies.
    There clearly is a significant bubble in hi-tech at the moment, probably even more in China than in the US.
    You can add Fan Duel to the British list, the move of their headquarters from Edinburgh to New York is a recent thing which has its roots in regulatory issues with gambling.

    So that means two of Britain's Unicorns are not just Edinburgh based but based out of the same office building. That's some concentration.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,207
    Pong said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pong said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I'm shocked

    J Peter Donald
    Wanted: Ahmad Khan Rahami, 28 year old male, is being sought in connection with the Chelsea bombing. #nyc https://t.co/hSxhMqO7Qh

    Known locally as Dave, long history of mental health problems and not a very good Muslim often seen drinking / doing drugs and even might be gay.
    As opposed to Tom from Batley, who, it turns out, didn't have mental health problems when he dispatched Jo Cox.

    Just an ordinary fascist.
    Yep, and he should face the death penalty.
    And those who encouraged him?
    Any evidence for him being radicalized? If so, then perhaps.

    I'm sure you've guessed that I am virtue signaling.
  • wasdwasd Posts: 276
    edited September 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.

    You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.
    Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!
    Corbyn will be an even heavier favourite next time round. The membership is trending towards him, and dispirited "Saving Labour" members will not renew their subs.
    In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.

    There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
    Not to mention the various proposals for rule changes at Conference this year and next - Corbyn's ideas for the membership to decide the Shadow Cabinet members and key policies only serve to further undermine the Parliamentary Labour Party.
    Smith started that ball rolling - he was the one who proposed shadow cabinet elections !
    I don't see how the likes of John Woodcock and Dan Jarvis can remain in the PLP. We need a market up on the number of Conference season defections. 2 or 3 looks plausible, I wonder if the LDs have one lined up in the next couple of days.
    I'm not sure why we're expecting defections when just resigning the whip seems more likely. If nothing else 'Labour' > 'Independent Labour' leaves them the opportunity to return to a party that's been home for most of their adult life and that seem to have a fierce love for. 'Labour' > 'Con|LD|Nats' pretty much rules that out.
  • Very interesting from smith..... Admitting defeat it seems.

    What is his evidence that Corbyn can’t provide the necessary leadership in opposition? And even if that proves compelling, was nine months really enough time before MPs tried to oust a politician elected by the party’s membership?

    “I wasn’t in favour of there being a challenge,” says Smith quickly. “But once a challenge had been made then I felt I needed to stand because I felt that I had something to say about the future of the Labour party, and a lot of other people in the PLP [parliamentary Labour party] felt that about me, which is why they asked me to stand.”

    So Smith would have preferred to see Corbyn allowed to carry on for longer?

    “Yes, is the honest answer,” he says.

    Not that this is an admission of regret about his bid to topple the sitting leader.

    “The truth is, things weren’t going well, things aren’t going well. Nine months may be a short period of time but it’s a period of time in which the Labour party has gone backwards,” he says. “We are at a lower ebb than we’ve been in the polls at any time since 1982, and we’re six years into a Tory government and right now they are unfettered, they feel able to act with total impunity.”
  • MaxPB said:

    Off-topic:

    I'm on the market for a new gaming PC, and I was wondering if anyone here could give some advice on suppliers (ISTR this has been talked about before). I can't be faffed to assemble myself, but would like names of reliable, reputable gaming system builders.

    Also, if anyone has any advice on what to look for, or not. Price range £1,000 to 1,500, not including monitor, keyboard and other peripherals. As it's a gaming PC, good graphics are a must (i.e. GTX 980 performance min). Processor less important, but would like an i7 ideally. Good power supply a must.

    TIA. Doing my part for the post-Brexit vote economy by spending money that would otherwise just sit in the bank gaining cobwebs and f'all interest. :)

    I'm just about to go for lunch but I'll do a build for you when I come back, you can build a pretty awesome gaming PC for the kind of budget you have!
    Thanks, I'd appreciate that. I've been to a couple of sites but have been warned off one in particular for bad service.

    Thanks to Jonathon too.
  • MaxPB said:

    FPT

    On the UK-EU deal I think it will ultimately come down to realpolitik but with all sides being able to save face.

    For the EU, that will mean the UK doesn't have the same *level* of unrestricted free access to the single market whilst outside the EU, and less say in its rules.

    For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled) a more independent trade policy, and good access for financial services but an obvious new political relationship with the EU.

    Once we get past that the size of the UK economy, its importance as a major services centre in Europe, its global trade links, and the need for its cooperation in security and defence across the continent will take over.

    It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.

    His comments on the EU being willing to take economic hardship in order to punish the UK have gone down extremely poorly across the bloc.
    When the end comes for Juncker it will come very quickly.
    I don't get this. How on earth can he be got rid of? There's no mechanism. Even if there were, there's no chance of assembling a majority amongst the EU27 and the parliament for throwing everything in the air. So he'll be there until the end of his term (2019).
    Speaker Martin. Where there's a will there's a way. One way would be to threaten him with an EU parliament vote of censure unless he steps down, coordinated through national leaders.

    Of course, he may still last until end of 2019. But no longer.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,349
    A pivotal moment. Had Harman not been elected Deputy Leader she would not have been Acting Leader in July 2015, and Labour would have avoided her disastrous decision to abstain on Osborne's Welfare proposals as set out in his July Budget. Without that Corbyn would not have been propelled into the Leadership by the outrage that stemmed from that decision.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    @Casino_Royale

    "For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled)"

    Sorry, Mr. Royale, could you please explain that one too us. What does discount mean in this context? How is the Border Force to know who is high skilled and who is low skilled unless there is some pre-arrival method of checking (aka visas or work permits).

    As ever with these discussions the tricky bit is how does the UK quickly and efficiently remove from its shores those that are in breach of their terms of entry? Unless such people as are deemed undesirable can be thrown out then there is not much point in setting up systems to control who comes in. That would seem to me to require the UK to withdraw from the jurisdiction of the ECtHR.

    It's not for me to justify HMG policy but the intent and direction of it is clear to me from Hammond's statement on free movement of financial workers from the EU a couple of weeks ago:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/08/european-bankers-will-be-exempt-from-migration-curbs-after-brexi/

    I think there may be a salary test, or some form of income bond. Excluding, say, free movement from those on under £40k a year but allowing it for those above.
    I certainly don't expect you or anyone on here to Justify HMG policy, i am just interested in exploring some ideas that people put forward.

    If a person earning more than £x p.a. is to be given easier access to the UK then there has to be a mechanism for determining that the person has a solid job offer that includes a salary of £x+ befor he he is allowed in. That sounds a lot like a visa/work permit system to me and not a "discounted" system of free movement.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003

    @Slackbladder It was a serious mistake for the plotters not to go with Angela Eagle. By going with a very blokish guy, all the allegations of misogyny lost all salience. Angela Eagle would have attracted a lot of unpleasant commentary but that would have made large chunks of the selectorate pause for thought in a way that Owen Smith has never managed.

    Eagle backed the Iraq War so had zero chance. If Corbyn wins again as expected the only viable alternative leader before 2020 will be John McDonnell
  • MTimT said:

    Scott_P said:
    i seem to recall that in '1984' it's the kids who turn their parents in for thought crimes.

    China, not so long ago, and North Korea still. No need to resort to fiction.
    ... and the Soviet Union (Comrade Pavlik) and it was said that East German kindergartens would have children draw the clocks seen on television, which would reveal whether the family watched East or West German TV news.
  • MaxPB said:

    Off-topic:

    I'm on the market for a new gaming PC, and I was wondering if anyone here could give some advice on suppliers (ISTR this has been talked about before). I can't be faffed to assemble myself, but would like names of reliable, reputable gaming system builders.

    Also, if anyone has any advice on what to look for, or not. Price range £1,000 to 1,500, not including monitor, keyboard and other peripherals. As it's a gaming PC, good graphics are a must (i.e. GTX 980 performance min). Processor less important, but would like an i7 ideally. Good power supply a must.

    TIA. Doing my part for the post-Brexit vote economy by spending money that would otherwise just sit in the bank gaining cobwebs and f'all interest. :)

    I'm just about to go for lunch but I'll do a build for you when I come back, you can build a pretty awesome gaming PC for the kind of budget you have!
    Thanks, I'd appreciate that. I've been to a couple of sites but have been warned off one in particular for bad service.

    Thanks to Jonathon too.
    I would second overclockers. Quite a few years ago they had a bit of a so so reputation, but now they are very good at what they do. So much so the Germans bought them a couple of years ago.
  • JonathanD said:

    Off-topic:

    I'm on the market for a new gaming PC, and I was wondering if anyone here could give some advice on suppliers (ISTR this has been talked about before). I can't be faffed to assemble myself, but would like names of reliable, reputable gaming system builders.

    Also, if anyone has any advice on what to look for, or not. Price range £1,000 to 1,500, not including monitor, keyboard and other peripherals. As it's a gaming PC, good graphics are a must (i.e. GTX 980 performance min). Processor less important, but would like an i7 ideally. Good power supply a must.

    TIA. Doing my part for the post-Brexit vote economy by spending money that would otherwise just sit in the bank gaining cobwebs and f'all interest. :)

    https://www.overclockers.co.uk/
    Seconded. Overclockers are good.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.

    You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.
    Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!
    Corbyn will be an even heavier favourite next time round. The membership is trending towards him, and dispirited "Saving Labour" members will not renew their subs.
    In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.

    There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
    Not to mention the various proposals for rule changes at Conference this year and next - Corbyn's ideas for the membership to decide the Shadow Cabinet members and key policies only serve to further undermine the Parliamentary Labour Party.
    Personally, I can't see there being another challenge before the last year or so before the next GE now. So summer 2019 perhaps. A last desperate effort to avert disaster. By then it should be clear the scale of what is coming.

    A lot could change, but at moment it seems Labour members are determined to allow, or are unable to stop, the party moving to such a left-wing position that it is utterly unelectable under FPTP, given swing voters, marginal seats etc etc. It is purity over power and purity is winning hands down.

    In a sense it might not matter, as the alternative is social democratic Labour and social democracy is in massive retreat all over Europe, so perhaps a party led by Yvette or Ed Balls or Jarvis would still lose badly.
    Mr. Borough, how would you reconcile your views with those who point out that Labour polling is not actually that bad?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003
    JonathanD said:

    MTimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.

    Except some will argue it's not in "the interests of the major EU member states" for Brexit to be seen as a success.

    What would stop them following suit?
    Both sides would spin it as a victory. The EU will say the UK is not in the single market now, and must accept EU trade rules unilaterally in order to sell into the bloc. The UK will say we're out of the EU and able to trade with them without tariffs which ensures out industries are safe and we've got restrictions on unskilled migration and access to welfare.
    For Brexit to be both an economic and political success, we need to be free from automatic application of EU regulations on our industry, and we need the ability to negotiate our own trade deals. Accepting 'EU trade rules unilaterally' has to be a non-starter. Unless you mean something else. Obviously, goods sold into the EU have to meet EU standards, and for any type of FTA we'd assume that NTBs would not be allowed.
    Surely for BREXIT to be an economic success, the UK needs to have a higher trend growth after leaving than before, plus a higher trend growth than Germany.
    Not for most Leavers, for them the most important thing was to cut immigration
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,196

    JonathanD said:

    Off-topic:

    I'm on the market for a new gaming PC, and I was wondering if anyone here could give some advice on suppliers (ISTR this has been talked about before). I can't be faffed to assemble myself, but would like names of reliable, reputable gaming system builders.

    Also, if anyone has any advice on what to look for, or not. Price range £1,000 to 1,500, not including monitor, keyboard and other peripherals. As it's a gaming PC, good graphics are a must (i.e. GTX 980 performance min). Processor less important, but would like an i7 ideally. Good power supply a must.

    TIA. Doing my part for the post-Brexit vote economy by spending money that would otherwise just sit in the bank gaining cobwebs and f'all interest. :)

    https://www.overclockers.co.uk/
    Seconded. Overclockers are good.
    Yes, if I didn't have children I could have gone on spending large amounts of money with them....
  • Speaker Martin. Where there's a will there's a way. One way would be to threaten him with an EU parliament vote of censure unless he steps down, coordinated through national leaders.

    Of course, he may still last until end of 2019. But no longer.

    There's no will. This is a British Eurosceptic fantasy. Our EU friends don't see it like that - neither countries nor MEPs.

    It's true that there is some tension between the Commission and some countries, and a bit of a power struggle going on. It's also true that there are disagreements about how to handle Brexit, although those disagreements are across countries (and different politicians within countries). Juncker is just one figure in that debate.
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