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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly independence starts to look a much scarier prospec

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly independence starts to look a much scarier prospect to the Scots. BREXIT could be keeping the union together

The normal response is to blame the oil price but I wonder if it goes deeper than that. BREXIT has added so many new uncertainties that the idea of adding independence into the mixture just seems too much at this time.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,194
    edited September 2016
    First...Like Jezza for Leader campaign, but definitely nothing to do with Maomentum...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,207
    Second like Smith.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 233
    This Dispatches "expose" of Momentum is hardly GBH stuff.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,194
    edited September 2016
    dodrade said:

    This Dispatches "expose" of Momentum is hardly GBH stuff.

    Its really really crap. If nobody knew who the people behind Maomentum were and that Maomentum was a top secret organization it might then be interesting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003
    edited September 2016
    Marr's BBC 2 programme last night was very interesting, especially Curtice's revelation that 1/3 of Yes voters in Scotland voted Leave in EU ref. May is also more popular in Scotland than Cameron
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2016
    RE: Momentum focused on by the left wing investigations unit Dispatches on C4. (HaHaHa)

    Unite's HQ being used by Momentum. Looks like a blind eye from its head honchos.

    It shows how the root of Labour's problems stem from unions such as Unite. There was a thread and article about how Unite was dominating the Labour party on PB a few years ago. It has got worse since then.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 233
    HYUFD said:

    Marr's BBC 2 programme last night was very interesting, especially Curtice's revelation that 1/3 of Yes voters in Scotland voted Leave in EU ref. May is also more popular in Scotland than Cameron

    At least they are being logical and consistent unlike the SNP leadership.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,194
    edited September 2016
    That was one of the worst dispatches I think I have ever seen. It was clearly they spent time getting uncover reporters in and seems like they went with a show despite really having found nothing but a load of trots are involved in Maomentum (which everybody knew already).
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,763
    Another apocalyptic REMAIN prediction heads towards the dustbin.
  • If only that had been predicted before, oh wait it was.

    Yes of course Brexit makes Sindy infinitely tougher. Scottish independence was based upon the idea of still being in a Single Market with the rest of the UK via the EU so no longer needing to be in the same nation anymore.

    Given Scotland trades far, far more with the UK than the rest of the EU leaving a British 'single market' to join the EU Single Market makes no sense.

    Sindy is dead, Rest In Peace. No Flowers.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2016
    Evening all.

    Yes 42% (-5) - No 48% (+7) - Changes from June 28

    Doesn’t quite tally with the post EURef rhetoric coming from the Edinburgh County Council...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,207
    Essexit said:

    Another apocalyptic REMAIN prediction heads towards the dustbin.

    Unfortunately.
  • Two homeless men discovered the backpack which contained five pipe bombs and saved hundreds of lives by reporting it to police, said Christian Bollwage, the mayor of Elizabeth, New Jersey.

    The backpack was found near a rubbish bin at a train station. It exploded as a police robot tried to deactivate the explosives.

    "They carried this [backpack] 800 to 1,000 yards before they dropped it," Mr Bollwage said. They had initially thought that the backpack contained valuables because they saw the wires inside.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,636
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmmm: a woman who backed Madoff (and handed over large quantities of her customers' money to him). Clearly someone who's views we should trust.
    Much of the City and Wall Street was duped by Madoff, including the last firm my father worked for before he retired. Clearly they could have made more checks but he was very canny. As for Horlick, managing big City funds while bringing up 6 children (including one who sadly died of Leukaemia) is still a very rare feat
    She did not manage big city funds.
    She managed Morgan Grenfell's UK investment business, assets ultimately totalling £18 billion and then set up her own funds
    Managing an investment business - and I'm not even convinced she was that senior - is not the same as managing funds.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003
    dodrade said:

    HYUFD said:

    Marr's BBC 2 programme last night was very interesting, especially Curtice's revelation that 1/3 of Yes voters in Scotland voted Leave in EU ref. May is also more popular in Scotland than Cameron

    At least they are being logical and consistent unlike the SNP leadership.
    Certainly, nationalism does not mean swapping power from one distant capital for one even further away!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,613
    Some of us did forecast that Brexit was completely inimical to Scottish Independence in advance. The assumption in Sindy was that we would both in the Single Market. That is no longer the case and it makes sense for the SNP to wait to see where the UK ends up no matter what the frothy wing thinks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003

    Two homeless men discovered the backpack which contained five pipe bombs and saved hundreds of lives by reporting it to police, said Christian Bollwage, the mayor of Elizabeth, New Jersey.

    The backpack was found near a rubbish bin at a train station. It exploded as a police robot tried to deactivate the explosives.

    "They carried this [backpack] 800 to 1,000 yards before they dropped it," Mr Bollwage said. They had initially thought that the backpack contained valuables because they saw the wires inside.

    Hope they get properly rewarded and a decent meal and roof over their heads, they certainly deserve it!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,337
    Noticed that Paul Mason has found out that companies advertise on C4, and he doesn't appear to approve.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Noticed that Paul Mason has found out that companies advertise on C4, and he doesn't appear to approve.

    He really is having a mid life crisis breakdown.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmmm: a woman who backed Madoff (and handed over large quantities of her customers' money to him). Clearly someone who's views we should trust.
    Much of the City and Wall Street was duped by Madoff, including the last firm my father worked for before he retired. Clearly they could have made more checks but he was very canny. As for Horlick, managing big City funds while bringing up 6 children (including one who sadly died of Leukaemia) is still a very rare feat
    She did not manage big city funds.
    She managed Morgan Grenfell's UK investment business, assets ultimately totalling £18 billion and then set up her own funds
    Managing an investment business - and I'm not even convinced she was that senior - is not the same as managing funds.
    Whether she managed funds for private clients or assets for investment (and if you really want to be that technical yes it was more the latter) it really makes little difference to the general point
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,065
    Good for yes, surely?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,194
    edited September 2016
    'Miserable' Jeremy Corbyn takes the famous Mumsnet biscuit test... and readers aren't impressed

    "That's the stuff, Jez. Innocent question about your favourite biscuit - kick it off with a bit of prim moral disapproval, alienate the audience nice and early. 'Corbyn Shames Mums for Scoffing Biscuits' - that's the kind of headline we're looking for in tomorrow's tabloids. Also, make everyone wonder what on earth you put in your jam, if you hate sugar so much, given that you list your favourite hobby as jam-making. Baffle them further with the weird implication that someone might 'force' you to eat a biscuit, as if Mary Berry is holding you at gunpoint. Then, after all that circuitous waffle, finally get round to giving the answer you could have just given straight off. Textbook."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/19/miserable-jeremy-corbyn-takes-the-famous-mumsnet-biscuit-test-a/
  • I was in Scotland over the weekend, in the Borders.

    I know the Borders are relatively strong for unionism, but I was impressed by how enthusiastically my B&B hosts described themselves as British as well as Scottish, and I saw a not a few Union flags - as well as the cross of St. Andrew - around Peebles and Galashiels.

    The Union is not dead yet.
  • The poll is a decent sized and statistically significant swing so we shouldn't ignore it. And actual Brexit does make the mechanics of independence much more difficult. I wouldn't be too hubristic though if I were a British nationalist. The independence figure shows no real slide back from the 2014 result. The basic premise remains. Scotland's destiny is being driven by a UK wide decision it voted overwhelmingly against.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,636
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    On leaving the EU, stunning idiocy:



    I assume that includes the UK's economy (between 2.5 and 3 trillion euros). And does seem to neglect that America, and maybe China are bigger, even with the UK included.

    I think most people on both sides are entirely reasonable, but I suspect the above line of thinking has many adherents in the Lords.

    More significant too is they do more trade with the UK than the UK does with the EU
    Collectively, yes, but not individually.

    China is 5.7% of British exports, the US 11%.

    As an aside, it is worth remembering that trade is conducted in real, not PPP, dollars. So, China is (currently) only about half the size of the EU ex-UK. And, if you look at China's imports, they're a relatively low percentage of GDP, and most of their imports are of commodities. See: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/chn/all/show/2014/ to see what China imports. There's not a great overlap with UK exports, so it's not entirely clear where the easy gains would come from us substituting other people in the event of a free trade deal.
    We have a clear trade deficit with every EU country except Ireland. Yes we have a trade deficit with China too but we have a trade surplus with the US and Switzerland so it would make sense to focus out trade expansion efforts there first once we have left the EU and look at the Middle East, Australia, New Zealand, India and Canada too. Obviously we want a free trade deal of some sort but with full free movement a non-starter from the UK perspective that depends on the EU being willing to do a deal too
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/apr2016
    My point is a bit less complicated than that. The vast bulk of what we - the UK - exports is services. China imports commodities, and to a lesser extent, luxury goods, and components it integrates into its electronics and consumers goods supply chains (i.e. LEDs, DRAM, Flash, LCD screens, etc.)

    Put this is context: the total value of China's services imports is less than the value of Belgium's services imports. Staggering. But true. And the gap isn't small either (it's more than $50bn.)

    We're not going to make big, immediate, gains from a free trade deal with China. Simply, we export few things (Rolls Royce aero engines, and few others) that China imports, so even removing the tariffs isn't going to lead to big things in the near term.
  • 'The widespread assumption pre-June 23rd was that UK voting LEAVE but Scotland going REMAIN would increase the pressure for independence. In fact the opposite appears to be the case.'

    Yes, the paradox is that if Brexit were now being perceived as a breeze then the Sindy vote could well be storming ahead. The fact that Brexit is mired in uncertainty and strife has caused the Scots to hunker down. They, like all of us, feel paralysed until some glimmer of an objective appears on the horizon. Sturgeon will keep her powder try until England figures something out, or it all explodes amid its own contradictions.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,337

    dr_spyn said:

    Noticed that Paul Mason has found out that companies advertise on C4, and he doesn't appear to approve.

    He really is having a mid life crisis breakdown.
    in public.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,305
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmmm: a woman who backed Madoff (and handed over large quantities of her customers' money to him). Clearly someone who's views we should trust.
    Much of the City and Wall Street was duped by Madoff, including the last firm my father worked for before he retired. Clearly they could have made more checks but he was very canny. As for Horlick, managing big City funds while bringing up 6 children (including one who sadly died of Leukaemia) is still a very rare feat
    She did not manage big city funds.
    She managed Morgan Grenfell's UK investment business, assets ultimately totalling £18 billion and then set up her own funds
    Managing an investment business - and I'm not even convinced she was that senior - is not the same as managing funds.
    It was very much a team effort. She was part of it , but by far not the most important part.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,583
    This can only be read as yet more marvellous news for the Tories. Not only are they philosophically and emotionally Unionist anyway, but Scotland is also turning into a huge net electoral asset for them.

    So long as the SNP return the large bulk of Scotland's MPs to Westminster, the path of any future centre-left opposition party to an overall majority is greatly impeded - and, consequently, the Lab/Nat Pact stick that was deployed against Miliband in England can continue to be used at every subsequent General Election. Under such circumstances, the SNP can always be portrayed as strong and the centre-left as weak and, consequently, vulnerable to being shoved about by what is unarguably a separatist movement, and one that does not necessarily consider the welfare of the rest of the UK to rank highly among its concerns.

    The Tories, on the other hand, do not need any Scottish votes to win - BUT if Ruth Davidson can convert the Scots Tories into the dominant Unionist party in Holyrood then they can also have a reasonable expectation of cutting into SNP support amongst better off voters, especially in the borders, Edinburgh and the North-East, as the years roll by and their long record in office finally starts to catch up with them. Should Scottish Labour wither away whilst the Scottish Tories win back half-a-dozen seats, and perhaps many more in future elections, then the position of the centre-left at Westminster would become even more hopeless.
  • Re maomentum kids.

    Thanks to things like that this video could do with bringing up to date to star Theresa instead of Maggie.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,305
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmmm: a woman who backed Madoff (and handed over large quantities of her customers' money to him). Clearly someone who's views we should trust.
    Much of the City and Wall Street was duped by Madoff, including the last firm my father worked for before he retired. Clearly they could have made more checks but he was very canny. As for Horlick, managing big City funds while bringing up 6 children (including one who sadly died of Leukaemia) is still a very rare feat
    She did not manage big city funds.
    She managed Morgan Grenfell's UK investment business, assets ultimately totalling £18 billion and then set up her own funds
    Managing an investment business - and I'm not even convinced she was that senior - is not the same as managing funds.
    Whether she managed funds for private clients or assets for investment (and if you really want to be that technical yes it was more the latter) it really makes little difference to the general point
    FWIW she's a good friend of my uncle's. Not been a Tory for a long time
  • This one of those ' everybody knows it but it'll be a huge shock when the government says it officially '. Hence all the briefing to soften us up. We really are still in the phoney peace stage. http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/uk-set-to-give-up-on-single-market-access-35058880.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,800
    @BBCScotlandNews: Lord Darling predicts there will be "no #indyref2 any time soon" https://t.co/jRHuZT2x4T https://t.co/REvNxv2uzF
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,337
    edited September 2016
    Bristol's Labour implosion gathers momentum.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/two-more-labour-bristol-city-councillors-suspended-by-party/story-29730984-detail/story.html

    3 councillors now suspended by NEC.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    On leaving the EU, stunning idiocy:



    I assume that includes the UK's economy (between 2.5 and 3 trillion euros). And does seem to neglect that America, and maybe China are bigger, even with the UK included.

    I think most people on both sides are entirely reasonable, but I suspect the above line of thinking has many adherents in the Lords.

    More significant too is they do more trade with the UK than the UK does with the EU
    Collectively, yes, but not individually.

    China is 5.7% of British exports, the US 11%.

    As an aside, it is worth remembering that trade is conducted in real, not PPP, dollars. So, China is (currently) only about half the size of the EU ex-UK. And, if you look at China's imports, they're a relatively low percentage of GDP, and most of their imports are of commodities. See: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/chn/all/show/2014/ to see what China imports. There's not a great overlap with UK exports, so it's not entirely clear where the easy gains would come from us substituting other people in the event of a free trade deal.
    We have a clear trade deficit with every EU country except Ireland. Yes we have a trade deficit with China too but we have a trade surplus with the US and Switzerland so it would make sense to focus out trade expansion efforts there first once we have left the EU and look at the Middle East, Australia, New Zealand, India and Canada too. Obviously we want a free trade deal of some sort but with full free movement a non-starter from the UK perspective that depends on the EU being willing to do a deal too
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/apr2016
    My point is a bit less complicated than that. The vast bulk of what we - the UK - exports is services. China imports commodities, and to a lesser extent, luxury goods, and components it integrates into its electronics and consumers goods supply chains (i.e. LEDs, DRAM, Flash, LCD screens, etc.)

    Put this is context: the total value of China's services imports is less than the value of Belgium's services imports. Staggering. But true. And the gap isn't small either (it's more than $50bn.)

    We're not going to make big, immediate, gains from a free trade deal with China. Simply, we export few things (Rolls Royce aero engines, and few others) that China imports, so even removing the tariffs isn't going to lead to big things in the near term.
    No, which is why doing a trade deal with the US and India makes more sense as a priority than doing one with China
  • Essexit said:

    Another apocalyptic REMAIN prediction heads towards the dustbin.

    The bin's already full.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,065

    This can only be read as yet more marvellous news for the Tories. Not only are they philosophically and emotionally Unionist anyway, but Scotland is also turning into a huge net electoral asset for them.

    Smelling salts on standby :D
  • Panorama on Corbys is on.

    *gets popcorn*
  • DavidL said:

    Some of us did forecast that Brexit was completely inimical to Scottish Independence in advance. The assumption in Sindy was that we would both in the Single Market. That is no longer the case and it makes sense for the SNP to wait to see where the UK ends up no matter what the frothy wing thinks.

    Wait until the dust settles. If the UK remains in the single market then it would be quite attractive for Scotland to vote to have representation in the EU institutions while London sat on the sidelines waiting for directives by fax.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,613

    'The widespread assumption pre-June 23rd was that UK voting LEAVE but Scotland going REMAIN would increase the pressure for independence. In fact the opposite appears to be the case.'

    Yes, the paradox is that if Brexit were now being perceived as a breeze then the Sindy vote could well be storming ahead. The fact that Brexit is mired in uncertainty and strife has caused the Scots to hunker down. They, like all of us, feel paralysed until some glimmer of an objective appears on the horizon. Sturgeon will keep her powder try until England figures something out, or it all explodes amid its own contradictions.

    You are missing the point that has been made repeatedly in Scotland, so often that it is impossible to ignore. Basically >4x of our exports go to rUK as go to the EU. We need a single market with rUK far, far more than we need one with the EU. Until the SNP know whether or not we are in the Single Market there are some very difficult questions to address.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    On leaving the EU, stunning idiocy:



    I assume that includes the UK's economy (between 2.5 and 3 trillion euros). And does seem to neglect that America, and maybe China are bigger, even with the UK included.

    I think most people on both sides are entirely reasonable, but I suspect the above line of thinking has many adherents in the Lords.

    More significant too is they do more trade with the UK than the UK does with the EU
    Collectively, yes, but not individually.

    China is 5.7% of British exports, the US 11%.

    As an aside, it is worth remembering that trade is conducted in real, not PPP, dollars. So, China is (currently) only about half the size of the EU ex-UK. And, if you look at China's imports, they're a relatively low percentage of GDP, and most of their imports are of commodities. See: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/chn/all/show/2014/ to see what China imports. There's not a great overlap with UK exports, so it's not entirely clear where the easy gains would come from us substituting other people in the event of a free trade deal.
    We have a clear trade deficit with every EU country except Ireland. Yes we have a trade deficit with China too but we have a trade surplus with the US and Switzerland so it would make sense to focus out trade exp........SNIP
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/apr2016
    My point is a bit less complicated than that. The vast bulk of what we - the UK - exports is services. China imports commodities, and to a lesser extent, luxury goods, and components it integrates into its electronics and consumers goods supply chains (i.e. LEDs, DRAM, Flash, LCD screens, etc.)

    Put this is context: the total value of China's services imports is less than the value of Belgium's services imports. Staggering. But true. And the gap isn't small either (it's more than $50bn.)

    We're not going to make big, immediate, gains from a free trade deal with China. Simply, we export few things (Rolls Royce aero engines, and few others) that China imports, so even removing the tariffs isn't going to lead to big things in the near term.
    No, which is why doing a trade deal with the US and India makes more sense as a priority than doing one with China
    Says a lot about Osborne when rcs1000 outlines the facts on China. I once worked for a company that saw China as the big hope and they wasted years and millions on it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmmm: a woman who backed Madoff (and handed over large quantities of her customers' money to him). Clearly someone who's views we should trust.
    Much of the City and Wall Street was duped by Madoff, including the last firm my father worked for before he retired. Clearly they could have made more checks but he was very canny. As for Horlick, managing big City funds while bringing up 6 children (including one who sadly died of Leukaemia) is still a very rare feat
    She did not manage big city funds.
    She managed Morgan Grenfell's UK investment business, assets ultimately totalling £18 billion and then set up her own funds
    Managing an investment business - and I'm not even convinced she was that senior - is not the same as managing funds.
    Whether she managed funds for private clients or assets for investment (and if you really want to be that technical yes it was more the latter) it really makes little difference to the general point
    FWIW she's a good friend of my uncle's. Not been a Tory for a long time
    There are a few other notable defectors to the LDs:

    http://www.libdems.org.uk/growing-stronger-by-the-day

    I must admit to being surprised at Massow, but also Clare Gerada caught my eye. She would make an excellent MP.
  • Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmmm: a woman who backed Madoff (and handed over large quantities of her customers' money to him). Clearly someone who's views we should trust.
    Much of the City and Wall Street was duped by Madoff, including the last firm my father worked for before he retired. Clearly they could have made more checks but he was very canny. As for Horlick, managing big City funds while bringing up 6 children (including one who sadly died of Leukaemia) is still a very rare feat
    She did not manage big city funds.
    She managed Morgan Grenfell's UK investment business, assets ultimately totalling £18 billion and then set up her own funds
    Managing an investment business - and I'm not even convinced she was that senior - is not the same as managing funds.
    Whether she managed funds for private clients or assets for investment (and if you really want to be that technical yes it was more the latter) it really makes little difference to the general point
    FWIW she's a good friend of my uncle's. Not been a Tory for a long time
    There are a few other notable defectors to the LDs:

    http://www.libdems.org.uk/growing-stronger-by-the-day

    I must admit to being surprised at Massow, but also Clare Gerada caught my eye. She would make an excellent MP.
    Massow is all about himself. He will go where he can get most attention.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Noticed that Paul Mason has found out that companies advertise on C4, and he doesn't appear to approve.

    The idea of an anti-capitalist working as the Business reporter of BBC Newsnight was always a wtf.
  • DavidL said:

    'The widespread assumption pre-June 23rd was that UK voting LEAVE but Scotland going REMAIN would increase the pressure for independence. In fact the opposite appears to be the case.'

    Yes, the paradox is that if Brexit were now being perceived as a breeze then the Sindy vote could well be storming ahead. The fact that Brexit is mired in uncertainty and strife has caused the Scots to hunker down. They, like all of us, feel paralysed until some glimmer of an objective appears on the horizon. Sturgeon will keep her powder try until England figures something out, or it all explodes amid its own contradictions.

    You are missing the point that has been made repeatedly in Scotland, so often that it is impossible to ignore. Basically >4x of our exports go to rUK as go to the EU. We need a single market with rUK far, far more than we need one with the EU. Until the SNP know whether or not we are in the Single Market there are some very difficult questions to address.
    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,613

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Collectively, yes, but not individually.

    China is 5.7% of British exports, the US 11%.

    As an aside, it is worth remembering that trade is conducted in real, not PPP, dollars. So, China is (currently) only about half the size of the EU ex-UK. And, if you look at China's imports, they're a relatively low percentage of GDP, and most of their imports are of commodities. See: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/chn/all/show/2014/ to see what China imports. There's not a great overlap with UK exports, so it's not entirely clear where the easy gains would come from us substituting other people in the event of a free trade deal.
    We have a clear trade deficit with every EU country except Ireland. Yes we have a trade deficit with China too but we have a trade surplus with the US and Switzerland so it would make sense to focus out trade exp........SNIP
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/apr2016
    My point is a bit less complicated than that. The vast bulk of what we - the UK - exports is services. China imports commodities, and to a lesser extent, luxury goods, and components it integrates into its electronics and consumers goods supply chains (i.e. LEDs, DRAM, Flash, LCD screens, etc.)

    Put this is context: the total value of China's services imports is less than the value of Belgium's services imports. Staggering. But true. And the gap isn't small either (it's more than $50bn.)

    We're not going to make big, immediate, gains from a free trade deal with China. Simply, we export few things (Rolls Royce aero engines, and few others) that China imports, so even removing the tariffs isn't going to lead to big things in the near term.
    No, which is why doing a trade deal with the US and India makes more sense as a priority than doing one with China
    Says a lot about Osborne when rcs1000 outlines the facts on China. I once worked for a company that saw China as the big hope and they wasted years and millions on it.
    The trade Osborne was looking for with China was very specific and successful. He wanted renminbi bonds as an introduction to London financial services and he got them.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Noticed that Paul Mason has found out that companies advertise on C4, and he doesn't appear to approve.

    The idea of an anti-capitalist ...music teacher with no formal business qualifications...working as the Business reporter of BBC Newsnight was always a wtf.
    Fixed for you..
  • This Panorama is as depressing as I expected. I wouldn't trust Len McCluskey to go to the shops for a pint of milk and come back with the right change.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,613

    DavidL said:

    Some of us did forecast that Brexit was completely inimical to Scottish Independence in advance. The assumption in Sindy was that we would both in the Single Market. That is no longer the case and it makes sense for the SNP to wait to see where the UK ends up no matter what the frothy wing thinks.

    Wait until the dust settles. If the UK remains in the single market then it would be quite attractive for Scotland to vote to have representation in the EU institutions while London sat on the sidelines waiting for directives by fax.
    Not going to happen. We will not be in the Single Market. We will have access to it but we will not be in it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmmm: a woman who backed Madoff (and handed over large quantities of her customers' money to him). Clearly someone who's views we should trust.
    Much of the City and Wall Street was duped by Madoff, including the last firm my father worked for before he retired. Clearly they could have made more checks but he was very canny. As for Horlick, managing big City funds while bringing up 6 children (including one who sadly died of Leukaemia) is still a very rare feat
    She did not manage big city funds.
    She managed Morgan Grenfell's UK investment business, assets ultimately totalling £18 billion and then set up her own funds
    Managing an investment business - and I'm not even convinced she was that senior - is not the same as managing funds.
    Whether she managed funds for private clients or assets for investment (and if you really want to be that technical yes it was more the latter) it really makes little difference to the general point
    FWIW she's a good friend of my uncle's. Not been a Tory for a long time
    Maybe not but ironically she was when Hague was leader (they were both university friends), so her support for the Tories seems to be inversely correlated to Tory success at the polls!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmmm: a woman who backed Madoff (and handed over large quantities of her customers' money to him). Clearly someone who's views we should trust.
    Much of the City and Wall Street was duped by Madoff, including the last firm my father worked for before he retired. Clearly they could have made more checks but he was very canny. As for Horlick, managing big City funds while bringing up 6 children (including one who sadly died of Leukaemia) is still a very rare feat
    She did not manage big city funds.
    She managed Morgan Grenfell's UK investment business, assets ultimately totalling £18 billion and then set up her own funds
    Managing an investment business - and I'm not even convinced she was that senior - is not the same as managing funds.
    Whether she managed funds for private clients or assets for investment (and if you really want to be that technical yes it was more the latter) it really makes little difference to the general point
    FWIW she's a good friend of my uncle's. Not been a Tory for a long time
    There are a few other notable defectors to the LDs:

    http://www.libdems.org.uk/growing-stronger-by-the-day

    I must admit to being surprised at Massow, but also Clare Gerada caught my eye. She would make an excellent MP.
    Massow is all about himself. He will go where he can get most attention.
    I never particularly liked Massow, but Gerada is worth having.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    On leaving the EU, stunning idiocy:



    I assume that includes the UK's economy (between 2.5 and 3 trillion euros). And does seem to neglect that America, and maybe China are bigger, even with the UK included.

    I think most people on both sides are entirely reasonable, but I suspect the above line of thinking has many adherents in the Lords.

    More significant too is they do more trade with the UK than the UK does with the EU
    Collectively, yes, but not individually.

    China is 5.7% of British exports, the US 11%.

    As an aside, it is worth remembering that trade is conducted in real, not PPP, dollars. So, China is (currently) only about half the size of the EU ex-UK. And, if you look at China's imports, they're a relatively low percentage of GDP, and most of their imports are of commodities. See: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/chn/all/show/2014/ to see what China imports. There's not a great overlap with UK exports, so it's not entirely clear where the easy gains would come from us substituting other people in the event of a free trade deal.
    We have a clear trade deficit with every EU country except Ireland. Yes we have a trade deficit with China too but we have a trade surplus with the US and Switzerland so it would make sense to focus out trade exp........SNIP
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/apr2016
    My point is a bit less complicated than that. The vast bulk of what we - the UK - exports is services. China imports commodities, and to a lesser extent, luxury goods, and components it integrates into its electronics and consumers goods supply chains (i.e. LEDs, DRAM, Flash, LCD screens, etc.)

    Put this is context: the total value of China's services imports is less than the value of Belgium's services imports. Staggering. But t.
    No, which is why doing a trade deal with the US and India makes more sense as a priority than doing one with China
    Says a lot about Osborne when rcs1000 outlines the facts on China. I once worked for a company that saw China as the big hope and they wasted years and millions on it.
    India is a better prospect from a UK perspective than China, we also have the Commonwealth and language links
  • This Panorama is as depressing as I expected. I wouldn't trust Len McCluskey to go to the shops for a pint of milk and come back with the right change.

    More likely to take it to Monte Carlo...
  • dr_spyn said:

    Noticed that Paul Mason has found out that companies advertise on C4, and he doesn't appear to approve.

    The idea of an anti-capitalist ...music teacher with no formal business qualifications...working as the Business reporter of BBC Newsnight was always a wtf.
    Fixed for you..
    I had the misfortune to have to read his first book ( Live Working or Die Fighting: How the Working Class Went Global) when I was judging a book prize. It was infantile lefty nonsense. Badly researched and badly written. No wonder it was part of the Guardian prize list...
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Some of us did forecast that Brexit was completely inimical to Scottish Independence in advance. The assumption in Sindy was that we would both in the Single Market. That is no longer the case and it makes sense for the SNP to wait to see where the UK ends up no matter what the frothy wing thinks.

    Wait until the dust settles. If the UK remains in the single market then it would be quite attractive for Scotland to vote to have representation in the EU institutions while London sat on the sidelines waiting for directives by fax.
    Not going to happen. We will not be in the Single Market. We will have access to it but we will not be in it.
    I'm optimistic that the government would collapse before that happened.

    'Access' to the single market could mean anything other than a complete trade embargo. It's a perfect example of dishonest Leave rhetoric.
  • I did say this at the time. EU withdrawal (barring disaster, which I simply don't see beyond the usual economic cycles) =/= Scottish independence.
  • Just starting watching Panorama...no spoilers....
  • Just starting watching Panorama...no spoilers....

    Summary so far: Trots gonna trot.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,613

    DavidL said:

    'The widespread assumption pre-June 23rd was that UK voting LEAVE but Scotland going REMAIN would increase the pressure for independence. In fact the opposite appears to be the case.'

    Yes, the paradox is that if Brexit were now being perceived as a breeze then the Sindy vote could well be storming ahead. The fact that Brexit is mired in uncertainty and strife has caused the Scots to hunker down. They, like all of us, feel paralysed until some glimmer of an objective appears on the horizon. Sturgeon will keep her powder try until England figures something out, or it all explodes amid its own contradictions.

    You are missing the point that has been made repeatedly in Scotland, so often that it is impossible to ignore. Basically >4x of our exports go to rUK as go to the EU. We need a single market with rUK far, far more than we need one with the EU. Until the SNP know whether or not we are in the Single Market there are some very difficult questions to address.
    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.
    Really? So basically when we quadruple our trade with the rest of the world and increase our tax base by around 15% and we import a bit less we will be ready to go for independence? Maybe. Lets work towards that and see how we are doing in, say, 30 years.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2016
    @HYUFD

    A free trade area with flexible and well educated industrious workforce that can undercut us is not nessicarily to our advantage (particularly to the voters of Leaverstan). We should aim to have a free trade area with a part of the world that we can outcompete. I commend to this site one called the European Union...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003
    Battle at Brighton Pride between Smith and Corbyn supporters to harness supporters
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    'The widespread assumption pre-June 23rd was that UK voting LEAVE but Scotland going REMAIN would increase the pressure for independence. In fact the opposite appears to be the case.'

    Yes, the paradox is that if Brexit were now being perceived as a breeze then the Sindy vote could well be storming ahead. The fact that Brexit is mired in uncertainty and strife has caused the Scots to hunker down. They, like all of us, feel paralysed until some glimmer of an objective appears on the horizon. Sturgeon will keep her powder try until England figures something out, or it all explodes amid its own contradictions.

    You are missing the point that has been made repeatedly in Scotland, so often that it is impossible to ignore. Basically >4x of our exports go to rUK as go to the EU. We need a single market with rUK far, far more than we need one with the EU. Until the SNP know whether or not we are in the Single Market there are some very difficult questions to address.
    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.
    Really? So basically when we quadruple our trade with the rest of the world and increase our tax base by around 15% and we import a bit less we will be ready to go for independence? Maybe. Lets work towards that and see how we are doing in, say, 30 years.
    For 'rest of the world' read 'read of Europe'. If the May junta really is intent on taking the UK out of the single market then Scotland will have more leverage to accelerate the process.
  • DavidL said:

    Some of us did forecast that Brexit was completely inimical to Scottish Independence in advance. The assumption in Sindy was that we would both in the Single Market. That is no longer the case and it makes sense for the SNP to wait to see where the UK ends up no matter what the frothy wing thinks.

    Wait until the dust settles. If the UK remains in the single market then it would be quite attractive for Scotland to vote to have representation in the EU institutions while London sat on the sidelines waiting for directives by fax.
    So what you're suggesting is that to best maintain the union, we should leave the single market?
  • This one of those ' everybody knows it but it'll be a huge shock when the government says it officially '. Hence all the briefing to soften us up. We really are still in the phoney peace stage. http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/uk-set-to-give-up-on-single-market-access-35058880.html

    How long are we to expect you to continue being a 'Brexit disaster' linkbot? I'd just like to know when to pay attention again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003
    edited September 2016

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    'The widespread assumption pre-June 23rd was that UK voting LEAVE but Scotland going REMAIN would increase the pressure for independence. In fact the opposite appears to be the case.'

    Yes, the paradox is that if Brexit were now being perceived as a breeze then the Sindy vote could well be storming ahead. The fact that Brexit is mired in uncertainty and strife has caused the Scots to hunker down. They, like all of us, feel paralysed until some glimmer of an objective appears on the horizon. Sturgeon will keep her powder try until England figures something out, or it all explodes amid its own contradictions.

    You are missing the point that has been made repeatedly in Scotland, so often that it is impossible to ignore. Basically >4x of our exports go to rUK as go to the EU. We need a single market with rUK far, far more than we need one with the EU. Until the SNP know whether or not we are in the Single Market there are some very difficult questions to address.
    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.
    Really? So basically when we quadruple our trade with the rest of the world and increase our tax base by around 15% and we import a bit less we will be ready to go for independence? Maybe. Lets work towards that and see how we are doing in, say, 30 years.
    For 'rest of the world' read 'read of Europe'. If the May junta really is intent on taking the UK out of the single market then Scotland will have more leverage to accelerate the process.
    It is not May, it is the country, in fact even SNP supporters would rather we left the single market if we got no control over migration by staying!

    https://twitter.com/search?q=single market ashcroft poll&src=typd
  • DavidL said:

    Some of us did forecast that Brexit was completely inimical to Scottish Independence in advance. The assumption in Sindy was that we would both in the Single Market. That is no longer the case and it makes sense for the SNP to wait to see where the UK ends up no matter what the frothy wing thinks.

    Wait until the dust settles. If the UK remains in the single market then it would be quite attractive for Scotland to vote to have representation in the EU institutions while London sat on the sidelines waiting for directives by fax.
    So what you're suggesting is that to best maintain the union, we should leave the single market?
    I'm suggesting that that is the scenario on which the logic of Brexit weakening the short-term case for independence depends.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,583

    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.

    But is the EU the correct model for European co-operation? Or, to put it another way, I'd say that the odds of the British Union outlasting the European one are excellent.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,613

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    'The widespread assumption pre-June 23rd was that UK voting LEAVE but Scotland going REMAIN would increase the pressure for independence. In fact the opposite appears to be the case.'

    Yes, the paradox is that if Brexit were now being perceived as a breeze then the Sindy vote could well be storming ahead. The fact that Brexit is mired in uncertainty and strife has caused the Scots to hunker down. They, like all of us, feel paralysed until some glimmer of an objective appears on the horizon. Sturgeon will keep her powder try until England figures something out, or it all explodes amid its own contradictions.

    You are missing the point that has been made repeatedly in Scotland, so often that it is impossible to ignore. Basically >4x of our exports go to rUK as go to the EU. We need a single market with rUK far, far more than we need one with the EU. Until the SNP know whether or not we are in the Single Market there are some very difficult questions to address.
    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.
    Really? So basically when we quadruple our trade with the rest of the world and increase our tax base by around 15% and we import a bit less we will be ready to go for independence? Maybe. Lets work towards that and see how we are doing in, say, 30 years.
    For 'rest of the world' read 'read of Europe'. If the May junta really is intent on taking the UK out of the single market then Scotland will have more leverage to accelerate the process.
    No, even I would concede that not being in the Single Market is likely to result in a modest reduction in trade with the EU not an increase. This will of course apply to Scotland too which is likely to become even more dependent on rUK for trade.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,194
    edited September 2016
    The journalist guy in the Panorama programme...

    He became a senior investigative reporter at the Daily Mail in 1994, switching to the chief reporter role at the Daily Express two years later.

    Greg also founded football website Soccernet with his then 12-year-old son Tom in 1995, which was later sold to ESPN for £25m.

    http://www.holdthefrontpage.co.uk/2015/news/editor-of-independent-weekly-bought-by-jp-quits/
  • DavidL said:

    'The widespread assumption pre-June 23rd was that UK voting LEAVE but Scotland going REMAIN would increase the pressure for independence. In fact the opposite appears to be the case.'

    Yes, the paradox is that if Brexit were now being perceived as a breeze then the Sindy vote could well be storming ahead. The fact that Brexit is mired in uncertainty and strife has caused the Scots to hunker down. They, like all of us, feel paralysed until some glimmer of an objective appears on the horizon. Sturgeon will keep her powder try until England figures something out, or it all explodes amid its own contradictions.

    You are missing the point that has been made repeatedly in Scotland, so often that it is impossible to ignore. Basically >4x of our exports go to rUK as go to the EU. We need a single market with rUK far, far more than we need one with the EU. Until the SNP know whether or not we are in the Single Market there are some very difficult questions to address.
    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.
    There's no need to re-frame it; it's a bald statement of fact. Your meandering off into misty-eyed batshit territory doesn't change it I'm afraid.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    The poll is a decent sized and statistically significant swing so we shouldn't ignore it. And actual Brexit does make the mechanics of independence much more difficult. I wouldn't be too hubristic though if I were a British nationalist. The independence figure shows no real slide back from the 2014 result. The basic premise remains. Scotland's destiny is being driven by a UK wide decision it voted overwhelmingly against.

    Most of them don't want independence; they just dislike Tory government.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,613

    DavidL said:

    'The widespread assumption pre-June 23rd was that UK voting LEAVE but Scotland going REMAIN would increase the pressure for independence. In fact the opposite appears to be the case.'

    Yes, the paradox is that if Brexit were now being perceived as a breeze then the Sindy vote could well be storming ahead. The fact that Brexit is mired in uncertainty and strife has caused the Scots to hunker down. They, like all of us, feel paralysed until some glimmer of an objective appears on the horizon. Sturgeon will keep her powder try until England figures something out, or it all explodes amid its own contradictions.

    You are missing the point that has been made repeatedly in Scotland, so often that it is impossible to ignore. Basically >4x of our exports go to rUK as go to the EU. We need a single market with rUK far, far more than we need one with the EU. Until the SNP know whether or not we are in the Single Market there are some very difficult questions to address.
    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.
    There's no need to re-frame it; it's a bald statement of fact. Your meandering off into misty-eyed batshit territory doesn't change it I'm afraid.
    And there was me being tactful!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,583
    BBC Panorama: Corbyn being interviewed by Pienaar, repeating the clapped out old "we can win with millions of non-voting youth" trope. Try telling Cameron and the leaders of Britain Stronger In how much mileage there is in campaigning for non-voting youth to come and rescue you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003
    Hollywood panics over Hillary behind the scenes at the Emmys. Luntz asked “Of the 20 closest people you know, how many of them are voting for Trump?” he asked. Long pause. “Exactly.”

    http://www.thewrap.com/hollywood-panics-over-hillary-behind-the-scenes-at-emmy-parties/
  • To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.

    But is the EU the correct model for European co-operation? Or, to put it another way, I'd say that the odds of the British Union outlasting the European one are excellent.
    The EU is a process rather than a model.

    To the extent that the EU currently appears to be a vehicle for some of the negatives of globalisation that people voted against in the referendum, this is a bug rather than a feature, and will be corrected as the current elected elite across Europe is replaced by a new generation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003
    chestnut said:

    The poll is a decent sized and statistically significant swing so we shouldn't ignore it. And actual Brexit does make the mechanics of independence much more difficult. I wouldn't be too hubristic though if I were a British nationalist. The independence figure shows no real slide back from the 2014 result. The basic premise remains. Scotland's destiny is being driven by a UK wide decision it voted overwhelmingly against.

    Most of them don't want independence; they just dislike Tory government.
    Though polling shows May is more popular in Scotland than Cameron
  • HYUFD said:

    Hollywood panics over Hillary behind the scenes at the Emmys. Luntz asked “Of the 20 closest people you know, how many of them are voting for Trump?” he asked. Long pause. “Exactly.”

    http://www.thewrap.com/hollywood-panics-over-hillary-behind-the-scenes-at-emmy-parties/

    If you go by anecdote and enthusiasm it's going to be a landslide for Trump. I think it may well happen.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,636
    HYUFD said:


    India is a better prospect from a UK perspective than China, we also have the Commonwealth and language links

    As a matter of interest, does India have free trade agreements with any of the following: China, the US, Australia, New Zealand, or Canada?

    I ask, because if they're very pro-free trade, presumably they'll have free trade agreements with at least a couple of these.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,234
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:



    My point is a bit less complicated than that. The vast bulk of what we - the UK - exports is services. China imports commodities, and to a lesser extent, luxury goods, and components it integrates into its electronics and consumers goods supply chains (i.e. LEDs, DRAM, Flash, LCD screens, etc.)

    Put this is context: the total value of China's services imports is less than the value of Belgium's services imports. Staggering. But true. And the gap isn't small either (it's more than $50bn.)

    We're not going to make big, immediate, gains from a free trade deal with China. Simply, we export few things (Rolls Royce aero engines, and few others) that China imports, so even removing the tariffs isn't going to lead to big things in the near term.

    No, which is why doing a trade deal with the US and India makes more sense as a priority than doing one with China
    And vastly more so to have a close trading arrangement with the EU
    Like the one we're not going to have any more.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,636

    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.

    But is the EU the correct model for European co-operation? Or, to put it another way, I'd say that the odds of the British Union outlasting the European one are excellent.
    I'd say at least 99.9% :)

    Although, of course, one day the last person to have even heard the words "the united kingdom of great britain and northern ireland" will die...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,194
    edited September 2016
    Jezzas argument "people in the poorest parts of the country didn't vote"....erhhh ummmm...how many of those seats returned a Tory MP? And how many already have a Labour MP?

    May I offer you a biscuit Jezza?
  • HYUFD said:



    India is a better prospect from a UK perspective than China, we also have the Commonwealth and language links

    I think it's India that represents more of a mirage of opportunity myself. It's so disparate. And very much a haggling culture. In terms of the Scotch whisky industry there have been a lot of high tariffs to protect domestic distilling, as well as intellectual property issues. 'Johnny Worker' whisky anyone? China are also (and I'm not saying this as a fault) very self-interested, but often have a keen desire to adopt the perceived sophistication of the West, and will spend to get it. Very good tourism market.

    In my opinion the primary goal of the UK economy for the time being should be import substitution.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    HYUFD said:

    Hollywood panics over Hillary behind the scenes at the Emmys. Luntz asked “Of the 20 closest people you know, how many of them are voting for Trump?” he asked. Long pause. “Exactly.”

    http://www.thewrap.com/hollywood-panics-over-hillary-behind-the-scenes-at-emmy-parties/

    Reminds me of the hundreds of luvvies who signed that BSE letter for the Grauniad. Completely out of touch with reality.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.

    But is the EU the correct model for European co-operation? Or, to put it another way, I'd say that the odds of the British Union outlasting the European one are excellent.
    The EU is a process rather than a model.

    To the extent that the EU currently appears to be a vehicle for some of the negatives of globalisation that people voted against in the referendum, this is a bug rather than a feature, and will be corrected as the current elected elite across Europe is replaced by a new generation.
    The post late at night on Saturday on the EU as a form of globalisation was very perceptive.

    Brexit to a free trade area is not going to relieve the ills of Leaverstan.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,613
    rcs1000 said:

    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.

    But is the EU the correct model for European co-operation? Or, to put it another way, I'd say that the odds of the British Union outlasting the European one are excellent.
    I'd say at least 99.9% :)

    Although, of course, one day the last person to have even heard the words "the united kingdom of great britain and northern ireland" will die...
    Well, I suppose if the sun expands and consumes the earth that will be true. I think I saw a headline today suggesting that was more imminent than once thought.
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:


    India is a better prospect from a UK perspective than China, we also have the Commonwealth and language links

    As a matter of interest, does India have free trade agreements with any of the following: China, the US, Australia, New Zealand, or Canada?

    I ask, because if they're very pro-free trade, presumably they'll have free trade agreements with at least a couple of these.
    However, South Korea does have a free trade agreement with the US and EU. We can thank it for our exploding phones.
  • BBC Panorama: Corbyn being interviewed by Pienaar, repeating the clapped out old "we can win with millions of non-voting youth" trope. Try telling Cameron and the leaders of Britain Stronger In how much mileage there is in campaigning for non-voting youth to come and rescue you.

    As Cameron himself said after the GE2015 - "Britain and Twitter: they're not the same thing!"
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:


    India is a better prospect from a UK perspective than China, we also have the Commonwealth and language links

    As a matter of interest, does India have free trade agreements with any of the following: China, the US, Australia, New Zealand, or Canada?

    I ask, because if they're very pro-free trade, presumably they'll have free trade agreements with at least a couple of these.
    No as you no doubt already know, but it is in the process of negotiation trade deals with Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,636
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.

    But is the EU the correct model for European co-operation? Or, to put it another way, I'd say that the odds of the British Union outlasting the European one are excellent.
    I'd say at least 99.9% :)

    Although, of course, one day the last person to have even heard the words "the united kingdom of great britain and northern ireland" will die...
    Well, I suppose if the sun expands and consumes the earth that will be true. I think I saw a headline today suggesting that was more imminent than once thought.
    How many of the civilizations from 5,000 years ago are much thought of today?
  • This one of those ' everybody knows it but it'll be a huge shock when the government says it officially '. Hence all the briefing to soften us up. We really are still in the phoney peace stage. http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/uk-set-to-give-up-on-single-market-access-35058880.html

    How long are we to expect you to continue being a 'Brexit disaster' linkbot? I'd just like to know when to pay attention again.
    It's already led to fresh money printing, the abandonment of the deficit target, a large and sudden devaluation in the £, claimed the career of the PM and a tiny but detectable uptick in Xenophobic speech and violence. The government who are now in favour of it have delayed it's legal launch for at least six months and there is a curious lack of detail of what it will mean in practice. Unlike many predictions the rEU has voided the Cameron deal, not offered us anything else much less a better deal and are now trolling s to get on with it. None of the above means it will be a disaster. However none of thw above justifies your shrill and abrasive assertion that we're sailing off into a glorious future. Let's see sunshine. This is a very long game.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,636

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:


    India is a better prospect from a UK perspective than China, we also have the Commonwealth and language links

    As a matter of interest, does India have free trade agreements with any of the following: China, the US, Australia, New Zealand, or Canada?

    I ask, because if they're very pro-free trade, presumably they'll have free trade agreements with at least a couple of these.
    No as you no doubt already know, but it is in the process of negotiation trade deals with Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
    Many more free trade agreements are negotiated than are ever implemented. I give you EU-Ukraine, TTIP and TPP as examples.
  • rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.

    But is the EU the correct model for European co-operation? Or, to put it another way, I'd say that the odds of the British Union outlasting the European one are excellent.
    I'd say at least 99.9% :)

    Although, of course, one day the last person to have even heard the words "the united kingdom of great britain and northern ireland" will die...
    Well, I suppose if the sun expands and consumes the earth that will be true. I think I saw a headline today suggesting that was more imminent than once thought.
    How many of the civilizations from 5,000 years ago are much thought of today?
    5,000 years ago is prehistory.

    How many educated people have not heard of ancient Greece, Rome or Egypt?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,234
    Independence is off the table for the moment. As much as anything because we have had four years non stop constitutional wrangling. Brexit makes independence more likely in the longer term. It's more likely to happen for the same reason that Brexit actually happened. People don't like to be told they can't afford it. Which is what this argument boils down to.

    Having said that, Brexit and independence are both backward in my view, again for the same reasons. It's better to be connected.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:


    India is a better prospect from a UK perspective than China, we also have the Commonwealth and language links

    As a matter of interest, does India have free trade agreements with any of the following: China, the US, Australia, New Zealand, or Canada?

    I ask, because if they're very pro-free trade, presumably they'll have free trade agreements with at least a couple of these.
    No as you no doubt already know, but it is in the process of negotiation trade deals with Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
    Many more free trade agreements are negotiated than are ever implemented. I give you EU-Ukraine, TTIP and TPP as examples.
    Agreed completely although I wouldn't write off TPP just yet.
  • rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.

    But is the EU the correct model for European co-operation? Or, to put it another way, I'd say that the odds of the British Union outlasting the European one are excellent.
    I'd say at least 99.9% :)

    Although, of course, one day the last person to have even heard the words "the united kingdom of great britain and northern ireland" will die...
    Well, I suppose if the sun expands and consumes the earth that will be true. I think I saw a headline today suggesting that was more imminent than once thought.
    How many of the civilizations from 5,000 years ago are much thought of today?
    If only they could have documented their daily lives taking selfies on their OnePlus 3s...
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003

    HYUFD said:



    India is a better prospect from a UK perspective than China, we also have the Commonwealth and language links

    I think it's India that represents more of a mirage of opportunity myself. It's so disparate. And very much a haggling culture. In terms of the Scotch whisky industry there have been a lot of high tariffs to protect domestic distilling, as well as intellectual property issues. 'Johnny Worker' whisky anyone? China are also (and I'm not saying this as a fault) very self-interested, but often have a keen desire to adopt the perceived sophistication of the West, and will spend to get it. Very good tourism market.

    In my opinion the primary goal of the UK economy for the time being should be import substitution.
    There is some mileage in China for luxury UK goods but not much beyond that. However given the only UK owned car manufacturers are Morgan and Aston Martin and the amount of food and drink we import (especially wine and lamb etc) we are not going to be completely self reliant in much beyond retail banks, pharmaceuticals, aerospace, mid and high-range supermarkets and a few airlines
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,536

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    To reframe it slightly, Scotland has a greater need to 'go global' (in the sense of being less reliant on trade with rUK) than rUK has in becoming less reliant on rEU.

    The destiny of all of the British Isles is to be members of the mainstream union of European nations. Scotland has the opportunity to steal a march on England in recognising this reality.

    But is the EU the correct model for European co-operation? Or, to put it another way, I'd say that the odds of the British Union outlasting the European one are excellent.
    I'd say at least 99.9% :)

    Although, of course, one day the last person to have even heard the words "the united kingdom of great britain and northern ireland" will die...
    Well, I suppose if the sun expands and consumes the earth that will be true. I think I saw a headline today suggesting that was more imminent than once thought.
    How many of the civilizations from 5,000 years ago are much thought of today?
    5,000 years ago is prehistory.

    How many educated people have not heard of ancient Greece, Rome or Egypt?
    Pre-history's a rather flexible definition (time immemorial by contrast ended on a wednesday in the 12th century). Ancient Egypt 'began history' over 5,000 years ago. We are closer in time to Cleopatra than she was to the building of the Great Pyramid.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,636

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:


    India is a better prospect from a UK perspective than China, we also have the Commonwealth and language links

    As a matter of interest, does India have free trade agreements with any of the following: China, the US, Australia, New Zealand, or Canada?

    I ask, because if they're very pro-free trade, presumably they'll have free trade agreements with at least a couple of these.
    No as you no doubt already know, but it is in the process of negotiation trade deals with Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
    Many more free trade agreements are negotiated than are ever implemented. I give you EU-Ukraine, TTIP and TPP as examples.
    Agreed completely although I wouldn't write off TPP just yet.
    I hope you're right.

    Re India, I think Modi is a genuine free trader, but I wouldn't underestimate the amount of anti-free trade sentiment in the Indian parliament, and the extent to which the big Indian families have the politicians in their pockets. If British imports are seen as threatening the wealth of the Ambani's, then suddenly a whole bunch of politicians won't be so keen.
This discussion has been closed.