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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just how strong is Momentum? Don Brind takes a sceptical lo

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just how strong is Momentum? Don Brind takes a sceptical look at the numbers

I’m only a few years younger than Neil Kinnock so when he tells John Pienaar on Panorama he fears that he may never see another Labour government in his lifetime it’s an “ouch” moment for me.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,295
    FPT:

    Texas @ 20-1 is a good bet here as it is first on the list so doubles up as a straight state bet.
    You can even combine it with the 1-12 on Texas with Paddy Power for a guaranteed profit.

    Montana is a HORRIBLE bet at 16-1, if Montana goes - so most likely does Texas methinks and the population is less hispanic.

    Georgia at 7-1 might be worth consideration, though if GA goes then Texas could be in trouble.
    Arizona looks terrible at 7-1, seeing as GA is above it in the list and these two states are fairly close in terms of how they might go.

    From here on down you're up against Arizona going to Hillary, which makes Iowa, Ohio unappealing at the odds.

    North Carolina might be OK at 12-1 but you're up against a narrow path with all the above states working against.

    New Jersey at 33-1 might be worth a poke looking further down the list if you expect a Trump landslide...

    I've gone for £5 Texas @ 20-1.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,164
    Silver like Team GB at the Paralympics?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347
    edited September 2016
    Third like argclu
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,776
    Interesting stuff on turnout Don, thanks - do you think Corbyn will top his 59.5% from last year?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Washington Post
    Republicans are now favored to hold the Senate in our inaugural 2016 Senate race ratings https://t.co/IVwuO9XEik https://t.co/LL70xCXmJ4
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2016
    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/21/us/politics/trump-florida-campaign.html?_r=0

    If Trump wants to win Florida, he should probably get some of the campaign money to them to help with GOTV
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,664

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
  • Interesting final paragraph from Don, effectively conceding the race. I note that voting closes tomorrow.

    However, interesting piece too. The question is how far the new membership shares the aims, views and values of Momentum, and is prepared to work with them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,390
    edited September 2016
    Dispatches and CH4 didn't seem to show that Mao-mentum was the million man march (yet).

    Rather the same small number of Trots touring the country causing trouble for local Labour parties.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,390
    edited September 2016
    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 25,455
    FPT:
    MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ladbrokes Clinton Firewall finder looks like a very interesting market.

    Let's assume that Trump wins. (As it happens, I think he will, and have bet accordingly. This view is obviously subject to change.) And let us assume it is by a narrow margin, and that his "Great Lakes" strategy is a success.

    So: that eliminates Texas, Montana, Georgia and Arizona as they should all be easy Republican wins.

    I suspect, if Trump wins, then he gets Iowa and Ohio.

    So, that leaves North Carolina (I'd reckon Trump takes that in a narrow win scenario), Florida, Nevada and New Hampshire. All of these could be lost by Hillary; not a certain, but could. Maybe £10 on each of these, and on Colorado and Pennsylvania (20-1).

    The one that tempts me on a Trump wins/virtual tie scenario is New Hampshire. If Hillary wins any above that Trump has not won or even come that close.
    I agree; I just can't see NH being a big fan of Trump, and it's economy has been doing pretty well.
    Personally, I don't see NH going Trump. Any of the 16 other candidates, and it would be in the GOP column. So to me, Colorado or even Wisconsin are key, with PA being the one with the potential for a yuuuge surprise on the night (lots of redneck areas, so it depends on low turnout in Philly).
    12-1 for New Hampshire to be the first Democratic state on the Ladbrokes list (https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/american/presidential-election/2016-presidential-election-winner/216136503/), seems like a no-brainer. It pays out in around a third to a half of Trump win scenarios, I'd reckon, and even in some Hillary ones. 12-1 is too skinny. Get on it.
  • And for anyone who was led up a betting blind alley by your fact driven analysis of Smith's impending triumph. Will they get to square their positions now that you have the turnout figures!!!!!!
  • I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

    He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

    Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

  • "We will defeat Corbyn in the end but another will spring up if you don't defeat the ideology."

    - Tony Blair


    Ok, he actually said "Isis" not "Corbyn". But the principle...

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,422
    I tend to agree with Don on this. I joined Momentum when it was set up. They occasionally send me an email when this or that is happening, but they don't give a hyperactive impression. To some extent they're a convenient straw man for both sides - the unstoppable wave or the sinister infiltrators, rather than just another pressure group.18,000 is about 3% of the party membership.

    I also think Don's right that lower turnout will damage Smith. I know several ABC voters who didn't actually think that Smith would be a better leader, so they're not voting at all. In a couple of cases, he's actually turned them into Corbyn voters by being "too aggressive, doesn't have his own positive profile".
  • A good progressive who supports liberation causes must surely favour the garibaldi.
  • Interesting article from Don. However, size isn't everything, as Owen Smith might say, and the flying trots of Momentum can have a much bigger impact than their numbers would suggest. They are well organised, they know all about infiltration, and, most importantly of all, they have their agents in place at the very top of the party.
  • I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

    He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

    Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

    "We're aaaaaaaaaaaallllllllll LEFT! We're aaaaaaaaaaaallllllllll LEFT!" :lol:
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2016
    "Donald Trump Jr. tweeted an image Monday, which had a Trump-Pence logo, that said: "If I had a bowl of skittles and I told you just three would kill you. Would you take a handful? That's our Syrian refugee problem."

    Amusingly, the Skittles marketing team put out a statement;

    "the company doesn't believe the comparison is appropriate."

    Before adding;

    "Our brand image is now completely f*cked"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,664

    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.
    St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347
    Rather depressing that Brind - who has hidden his personal interest whilst repeatedly trying to spin Smith's chances here - is, now that polls have closed, trying rather obviously to recover a shred of credibility.
  • IanB2 said:

    Third like argclu

    Oh, forgot to mention, I inadvertently strayed into Angela Eagle territory on Friday afternoon - I did the West Kirby and New Brighton branches of Merseyrail for the first time :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347
    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    A jammy dodger, surely?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    nunu said:
    Interesting data on attitudes

    "Polling research shows that Allen is part of a generational divergence from the overwhelming black loyalty to the Democratic party, which is not shared by millennials. Compared to older black Americans, millennials are more likely to see Clinton as not trustworthy in general, or not progressive enough on issues like decreasing the cost and debt load of a college education or reducing racial bias in policing and incarceration. Others are broadly cynical about the possibility for political change.

    And then there’s a generational shift in party loyalty across the board. Like 48 percent of millennials, Allen considers himself a political independent, compared to 35 percent of Baby Boomers.
  • IanB2 said:

    Rather depressing that Brind - who has hidden his personal interest whilst repeatedly trying to spin Smith's chances here - is, now that polls have closed, trying rather obviously to recover a shred of credibility.

    The polls haven't closed yet
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,664

    I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

    He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

    Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

    He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,739
    edited September 2016

    However, size isn't everything, as Owen Smith might say, and the flying trots of Momentum can have a much bigger impact than their numbers would suggest.

    Indeed.

    It's not how much you've got but what you do with it, as they say... ;)
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.
    St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.
    Well you learn something new everyday...
  • Pong said:

    "Donald Trump Jr. tweeted an image Monday, which had a Trump-Pence logo, that said: "If I had a bowl of skittles and I told you just three would kill you. Would you take a handful? That's our Syrian refugee problem."

    Amusingly, the Skittles marketing team put out a statement;

    "the company doesn't believe the comparison is appropriate."

    Before adding;

    "Our brand image is now completely f*cked"

    "Taste the Rainbow, Trump the Rainbow!"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347
    edited September 2016

    IanB2 said:

    Rather depressing that Brind - who has hidden his personal interest whilst repeatedly trying to spin Smith's chances here - is, now that polls have closed, trying rather obviously to recover a shred of credibility.

    The polls haven't closed yet
    As good as, given that Brind's effective concession is hardly going to affect anyone now. The number of people yet to complete their ballots who will actually get them back in time must be miniscule. The number who will first drop by PB to see if Mr Brind is still spinning his improbable yarn even fewer.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Pong said:

    "Donald Trump Jr. tweeted an image Monday, which had a Trump-Pence logo, that said: "If I had a bowl of skittles and I told you just three would kill you. Would you take a handful? That's our Syrian refugee problem."

    Amusingly, the Skittles marketing team put out a statement;

    "the company doesn't believe the comparison is appropriate."

    Before adding;

    "Our brand image is now completely f*cked"

    "Taste the Rainbow, Trump the Rainbow!"
    I really don't like M&M adverts, they're a bit creepy.
  • MaxPB said:

    I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

    He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

    Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

    He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.
    Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

    David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

    Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.
  • Interesting article from Don. However, size isn't everything, as Owen Smith might say, and the flying trots of Momentum can have a much bigger impact than their numbers would suggest. They are well organised, they know all about infiltration, and, most importantly of all, they have their agents in place at the very top of the party.

    Are you sure they're Trots and not Marxists?

    The Marxists seem to hate Trots!

    http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,963
    The Beeb positing that newly eligible voters (youngsters just turned 16) could prevent Hofer from winning the Austrian Presidential election re-run:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37405447

    I guess we should all be betting on a clear Hofer victory then ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,295
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ladbrokes Clinton Firewall finder looks like a very interesting market.

    Let's assume that Trump wins. (As it happens, I think he will, and have bet accordingly. This view is obviously subject to change.) And let us assume it is by a narrow margin, and that his "Great Lakes" strategy is a success.

    So: that eliminates Texas, Montana, Georgia and Arizona as they should all be easy Republican wins.

    I suspect, if Trump wins, then he gets Iowa and Ohio.

    So, that leaves North Carolina (I'd reckon Trump takes that in a narrow win scenario), Florida, Nevada and New Hampshire. All of these could be lost by Hillary; not a certain, but could. Maybe £10 on each of these, and on Colorado and Pennsylvania (20-1).

    The one that tempts me on a Trump wins/virtual tie scenario is New Hampshire. If Hillary wins any above that Trump has not won or even come that close.
    I agree; I just can't see NH being a big fan of Trump, and it's economy has been doing pretty well.
    Personally, I don't see NH going Trump. Any of the 16 other candidates, and it would be in the GOP column. So to me, Colorado or even Wisconsin are key, with PA being the one with the potential for a yuuuge surprise on the night (lots of redneck areas, so it depends on low turnout in Philly).
    12-1 for New Hampshire to be the first Democratic state on the Ladbrokes list (https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/american/presidential-election/2016-presidential-election-winner/216136503/), seems like a no-brainer. It pays out in around a third to a half of Trump win scenarios, I'd reckon, and even in some Hillary ones. 12-1 is too skinny. Get on it.
    Texas Clinton 8.3%
    Montana Clinton 13.2%
    Georgia Clinton 21.5%
    Arizona Clinton 26.6%
    Iowa Clinton 35.0%
    Ohio Clinton 41.9%
    North Carolina Clinton 44.9%
    Florida Clinton 46.5%
    Nevada Clinton 48.8%
    New Hampshire Clinton 62.4%
    Colorado Clinton 63.2%
    Pennsylvania 69.7%
    Michigan 69.4%
    Virginia 75.0%
    New Mexico 77.6%
    New Jersey 86.3%
    Maryland 99.6%

    Are the 538 %s, so with a 48.8% -> 62.4% gap (And also being around the midpoint) New Hampshire does indeed look an OK bet.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,963
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ladbrokes Clinton Firewall finder looks like a very interesting market.

    Let's assume that Trump wins. (As it happens, I think he will, and have bet accordingly. This view is obviously subject to change.) And let us assume it is by a narrow margin, and that his "Great Lakes" strategy is a success.

    So: that eliminates Texas, Montana, Georgia and Arizona as they should all be easy Republican wins.

    I suspect, if Trump wins, then he gets Iowa and Ohio.

    So, that leaves North Carolina (I'd reckon Trump takes that in a narrow win scenario), Florida, Nevada and New Hampshire. All of these could be lost by Hillary; not a certain, but could. Maybe £10 on each of these, and on Colorado and Pennsylvania (20-1).

    The one that tempts me on a Trump wins/virtual tie scenario is New Hampshire. If Hillary wins any above that Trump has not won or even come that close.
    I agree; I just can't see NH being a big fan of Trump, and it's economy has been doing pretty well.
    Personally, I don't see NH going Trump. Any of the 16 other candidates, and it would be in the GOP column. So to me, Colorado or even Wisconsin are key, with PA being the one with the potential for a yuuuge surprise on the night (lots of redneck areas, so it depends on low turnout in Philly).
    12-1 for New Hampshire to be the first Democratic state on the Ladbrokes list (https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/american/presidential-election/2016-presidential-election-winner/216136503/), seems like a no-brainer. It pays out in around a third to a half of Trump win scenarios, I'd reckon, and even in some Hillary ones. 12-1 is too skinny. Get on it.
    Thanks. I am not sure it's legal for me to bet.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,739

    MaxPB said:

    I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

    He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

    Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

    He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.
    Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

    David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

    Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.
    Theresa MAY put that right shortly! :smiley:
  • MaxPB said:

    I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

    He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

    Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

    He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.
    Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

    David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

    Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.
    But Dave lost a EU referendum.... just saying!

    :innocent:
  • Interesting article from Don. However, size isn't everything, as Owen Smith might say, and the flying trots of Momentum can have a much bigger impact than their numbers would suggest. They are well organised, they know all about infiltration, and, most importantly of all, they have their agents in place at the very top of the party.

    Are you sure they're Trots and not Marxists?

    The Marxists seem to hate Trots!

    http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89
    From Dispatches programme, it seemed to be that they encouraged all left wing nutters to stop the hate between them...Trot and proud...
  • David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

    Mind you, he never proposed anything as LibDem-esque as Theresa May's proposals for worker representation on boards, executive pay restraint, and linking the charitable status of public schools to assisting public-sector education.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited September 2016

    Interesting article from Don. However, size isn't everything, as Owen Smith might say, and the flying trots of Momentum can have a much bigger impact than their numbers would suggest. They are well organised, they know all about infiltration, and, most importantly of all, they have their agents in place at the very top of the party.

    Are you sure they're Trots and not Marxists?

    The Marxists seem to hate Trots!

    http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89
    From Dispatches programme, it seemed to be that they encouraged all left wing nutters to stop the hate between them...Trot and proud...
    Was it the damp squib noted here? Ditto Panorama?

    I expected more than a handful of posts for both.

    edit

    "Dispatches was billed as a piece of hard-hitting investigative journalism. Instead, the episode’s highlights included an undercover reporter “secretly” filming a public meeting and allegations that the group had breached some data protection rules. The latter is not unimportant but unfortunately it is common among political parties. That doesn’t make it OK but I’m afraid it doesn’t rank as a shocking revelation."

    http://labourlist.org/2016/09/little-controversy-and-even-less-communism-tv-expose-of-momentum-was-only-remarkable-for-being-ordinary/v
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,664
    edited September 2016

    MaxPB said:

    I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

    He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

    Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

    He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.
    Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

    David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

    Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.
    I think May needs to call on the Notting Hill reformers sooner rather than later. Her education reforms are a classic example of outmoded thinking which is undoing the work of Gove, backing away from prison and young offender reforms is also troubling.
  • Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.

    Cameron's career is the most perfect example of hubris you'll find. Every single little success he had along the way was merely a necessary step towards his ultimate tragic failure.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,963
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.
    St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.
    But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Interesting article from Don. However, size isn't everything, as Owen Smith might say, and the flying trots of Momentum can have a much bigger impact than their numbers would suggest. They are well organised, they know all about infiltration, and, most importantly of all, they have their agents in place at the very top of the party.

    Are you sure they're Trots and not Marxists?

    The Marxists seem to hate Trots!

    http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89
    From Dispatches programme, it seemed to be that they encouraged all left wing nutters to stop the hate between them...Trot and proud...
    Was it the damp squib noted here? Ditto Panorama?

    I expected more than a handful of posts for both.
    They were both total busts. Clearly Dispatches had spent a fair bit of time and money setting up an undercover sting and all they got were the well know Trots spouting their crap and the Maomentumers acting like they weren't Maomentum just Jezza for Leader (when we all know Jezza for Leader = Maomentum).

    TBH if I was in charge of Dispatches I would have just shelved the programme.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Interesting article from Don. However, size isn't everything, as Owen Smith might say, and the flying trots of Momentum can have a much bigger impact than their numbers would suggest. They are well organised, they know all about infiltration, and, most importantly of all, they have their agents in place at the very top of the party.

    Are you sure they're Trots and not Marxists?

    The Marxists seem to hate Trots!

    http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89
    From Dispatches programme, it seemed to be that they encouraged all left wing nutters to stop the hate between them...Trot and proud...
    Was it the damp squib noted here? Ditto Panorama?

    I expected more than a handful of posts for both.
    They were both total busts. Clearly Dispatches had spent a fair bit of time and money setting up an undercover sting and all they got were the well know Trots spouting their crap and the Maomentumers acting like they weren't Maomentum just Jezza for Leader (when we all know Jezza for Leader = Maomentum).

    TBH if I was in charge of Dispatches I would have just shelved the programme.
    Dave,

    Why do you use the persist in using the term "Trots"? From the link I posted:

    Trotskyism is a thoroughly counter-revolutionary trend marked by double-speak and cynical hypocrisy. It practises sectarianism and factionalism while calling for unity; it supports imperialist wars against the oppressed while mouthing phrases about anti-imperialism; it facilitates attacks on the working class through its cretinous support for the Labour party, while pretending to oppose such attacks; it supports counter-revolutions everywhere in the name of defending revolution.

    Right in essence and left in form is the best way of describing this malicious tendency, which everywhere sows confusion and division in the working-class movement, making us weaker to defend ourselves against the onslaught of imperialism.

    If we wish to liberate our world from imperialist exploitation and oppression, we must first rid our movement of all pro-imperialist, social-democratic ideology, not least the r-r-revolutionary garbage of Trotskyism.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2016
    I've just (roughly) evened up my POTUS book by laying trump.

    The LA times & surveymonkey polls have spooked me.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347

    PlatoSaid said:

    Interesting article from Don. However, size isn't everything, as Owen Smith might say, and the flying trots of Momentum can have a much bigger impact than their numbers would suggest. They are well organised, they know all about infiltration, and, most importantly of all, they have their agents in place at the very top of the party.

    Are you sure they're Trots and not Marxists?

    The Marxists seem to hate Trots!

    http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89
    From Dispatches programme, it seemed to be that they encouraged all left wing nutters to stop the hate between them...Trot and proud...
    Was it the damp squib noted here? Ditto Panorama?

    I expected more than a handful of posts for both.
    They were both total busts. Clearly Dispatches had spent a fair bit of time and money setting up an undercover sting and all they got were the well know Trots spouting their crap and the Maomentumers acting like they weren't Maomentum just Jezza for Leader (when we all know Jezza for Leader = Maomentum).

    TBH if I was in charge of Dispatches I would have just shelved the programme.
    Agree. As widely trailed in advance, Kinnock's prediction of a long walk in the wilderness was about as newsworthy as it got.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,566

    David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

    Mind you, he never proposed anything as LibDem-esque as Theresa May's proposals for worker representation on boards, executive pay restraint, and linking the charitable status of public schools to assisting public-sector education.
    I think Mr's May's tenure as leader might be short lived. Et Tu Brute?
  • MTimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.
    St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.
    But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.
    I've seen plenty of hotel breakfast buffets claiming to have 'sugar free' jam. God Corbyn knows how they make it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,664
    MTimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.
    St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.
    But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.
    True, but Corbyn strikes me as the type who believes grape molasses is better for you than cane sugar.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 25,455
    MTimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.
    St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.
    But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.
    Fructose vs sucrose?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MaxPB said:

    MTimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.
    St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.
    But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.
    True, but Corbyn strikes me as the type who believes grape molasses is better for you than cane sugar.
    Or corn syrup.
  • MTimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.
    St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.
    But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.
    I've seen plenty of hotel breakfast buffets claiming to have 'sugar free' jam. God Corbyn knows how they make it.

    Perhaps if the sugar is free, they charge more for the rest of it.

  • PB Brain Trust.

    I need to book some flights, but it seems like Skyscanner and Momondo now have become riddled with dodgy 3rd party ticket agents who all have reputation for classic bait and switch pricing to get them to show up in the results.

    Is there a price comparison site which only shows pricing from reputable sellers or where I can filter them out? And, these days is there any saving to be had versus just using Expedia / Opodo / going direct?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,422

    PlatoSaid said:



    Was it the damp squib noted here? Ditto Panorama?

    I expected more than a handful of posts for both.

    They were both total busts. Clearly Dispatches had spent a fair bit of time and money setting up an undercover sting and all they got were the well know Trots spouting their crap and the Maomentumers acting like they weren't Maomentum just Jezza for Leader (when we all know Jezza for Leader = Maomentum).

    TBH if I was in charge of Dispatches I would have just shelved the programme.
    It's a pity that (as we all take for granted) undercover investigaitons are always designed to reveal a certain conclusion, and if they don't then the consequence is either to put it out anyway as pseduo-proof without much evidence or to shelve it. An undercover investigation designed to see whether or not Momentum was a major threat to sitting MPs might have led to a genuinely interesting conclusion that it wasn't (as Don has done here), which would have been a bit awkward for both sides but more interestintg than feebly attempting to sustain the expected "sinister conspiracy poised to sweep to victory" theory.
  • MaxPB said:

    I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

    He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

    Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

    He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.
    Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

    David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

    Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.
    only the nutters join parties these days :)
  • MTimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.
    St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.
    But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.
    I've seen plenty of hotel breakfast buffets claiming to have 'sugar free' jam. God Corbyn knows how they make it.
    I wonder what they serve at Trots Tots breakfast clubs?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,664

    PB Brain Trust.

    I need to book some flights, but it seems like Skyscanner and Momondo now have become riddled with dodgy 3rd party ticket agents who all have reputation for classic bait and switch pricing to get them to show up in the results.

    Is there a price comparison site which only shows pricing from reputable sellers or where I can filter them out? And, these days is there any saving to be had versus just using Expedia / Opodo / going direct?

    Google flights. Has a decent interface as well.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,164

    PB Brain Trust.

    I need to book some flights, but it seems like Skyscanner and Momondo now have become riddled with dodgy 3rd party ticket agents who all have reputation for classic bait and switch pricing to get them to show up in the results.

    Is there a price comparison site which only shows pricing from reputable sellers or where I can filter them out? And, these days is there any saving to be had versus just using Expedia / Opodo / going direct?

    Expedia, or the airline websites direct now mostly offer to beat any web offers for their flights. Use comparison sites to identify routes and schedules, but book with the airline directly.
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rather depressing that Brind - who has hidden his personal interest whilst repeatedly trying to spin Smith's chances here - is, now that polls have closed, trying rather obviously to recover a shred of credibility.

    The polls haven't closed yet
    As good as, given that Brind's effective concession is hardly going to affect anyone now. The number of people yet to complete their ballots who will actually get them back in time must be miniscule. The number who will first drop by PB to see if Mr Brind is still spinning his improbable yarn even fewer.
    How many votes do you think were swung by his articles?
  • MaxPB said:

    I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

    He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

    Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

    He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.
    Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

    David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

    Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.
    only the nutters join parties these days :)
    The party selectorate do seem to be more extreme than their voters. Any way round that?
    Well yes, STV in multimember constituencies, it gives the voter a chance to rank their chosen party's candidates or even split their choices between parties.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,037
    Pong said:

    I've just (roughly) evened up my POTUS book by laying trump.

    The LA times & surveymonkey polls have spooked me.

    As the LA times African American figure falls back to its long term average so it will continue to narrow.

    If people have been thinking Trump has this locked up due to the LA Times tracker then that is very hasty thinking.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Eaten by spam

    Great article from last year from Rod Liddle re Trump

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/will-donald-trump-last-laugh/
  • PlatoSaid said:

    MaxPB said:

    MTimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.
    St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.
    But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.
    True, but Corbyn strikes me as the type who believes grape molasses is better for you than cane sugar.
    Or corn syrup.
    Corn syrup = evil Yankee Imperialism :)
  • rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.
    St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.
    But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.
    Fructose vs sucrose?
    I'm not making this up, but there is a sugar known as Fucose - just be careful how you pronounce it :innocent:
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Red Box
    Today's cartoon from Morten Morland https://t.co/pcLOwpXUUo
  • PlatoSaid said:

    MaxPB said:

    MTimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.
    St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.
    But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.
    True, but Corbyn strikes me as the type who believes grape molasses is better for you than cane sugar.
    Or corn syrup.
    Corn syrup = evil Yankee Imperialism :)
    certaintly a product of subsidies and nothing whatsoever to do with "free markets"
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,422

    PB Brain Trust.

    I need to book some flights, but it seems like Skyscanner and Momondo now have become riddled with dodgy 3rd party ticket agents who all have reputation for classic bait and switch pricing to get them to show up in the results.

    Is there a price comparison site which only shows pricing from reputable sellers or where I can filter them out? And, these days is there any saving to be had versus just using Expedia / Opodo / going direct?

    Others may know more, but after being recommended a specialist travel agent and going through the options with him in great detail, he ended up with exactly the same flights as I'd already found with Expedia, and when I asked him he said "to be honest, everyone in the industry uses the same system". But an agency with a discount agreement with an organisation I worked for consistently charged more than Expedia, even after allowing for the discount - every time I took a flight, I had to fight to insist that we used the cheap option, not the travelagent's "bargain".

    Only thing is that Expedia doesn't seem to include every flight from small airlines - I found a perfectly good Wizzair flight to Budapest earlier this year that they didn't include at all.
  • MTimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.
    St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.
    But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.
    I've seen plenty of hotel breakfast buffets claiming to have 'sugar free' jam. God Corbyn knows how they make it.
    I wonder what they serve at Trots Tots breakfast clubs?
    M and Ms?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347

    PB Brain Trust.

    I need to book some flights, but it seems like Skyscanner and Momondo now have become riddled with dodgy 3rd party ticket agents who all have reputation for classic bait and switch pricing to get them to show up in the results.

    Is there a price comparison site which only shows pricing from reputable sellers or where I can filter them out? And, these days is there any saving to be had versus just using Expedia / Opodo / going direct?

    Others may know more, but after being recommended a specialist travel agent and going through the options with him in great detail, he ended up with exactly the same flights as I'd already found with Expedia, and when I asked him he said "to be honest, everyone in the industry uses the same system". But an agency with a discount agreement with an organisation I worked for consistently charged more than Expedia, even after allowing for the discount - every time I took a flight, I had to fight to insist that we used the cheap option, not the travelagent's "bargain".

    Only thing is that Expedia doesn't seem to include every flight from small airlines - I found a perfectly good Wizzair flight to Budapest earlier this year that they didn't include at all.
    Always worth phoning Trailfinders - some of the time they just come up with the same already found on the internet, but a couple of times they've surprised me, either with something cheaper/I hadn't found or had an alternative I hadn't thought of.
  • As an organisation Momentum preaches openness, transparency and democracy. Funnily enough, though, its leadership is unelected and unaccountable. That Corbyn has thrown his hat in with them is, therefore, no huge surprise.

    Interesting on turnout. Clearly, neither candidate is inspiring much enthusiasm. For Owen Smith, that's by the by. For Jeremy Corbyn it would be a further sign that the writing is on the wall.
  • IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

    Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!
    A jammy dodger, surely?
    Jammy dodger would have been Cameron until June.
  • I use kayak when booking flights. It seems very comprehensive.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347

    As an organisation Momentum preaches openness, transparency and democracy. Funnily enough, though, its leadership is unelected and unaccountable. That Corbyn has thrown his hat in with them is, therefore, no huge surprise.

    Interesting on turnout. Clearly, neither candidate is inspiring much enthusiasm. For Owen Smith, that's by the by. For Jeremy Corbyn it would be a further sign that the writing is on the wall.

    Given the duration, publicity, exposure and campaigning, if a member doesn't vote it is hard to see it as anything other than NOTO.

    Given that they both stood on an identical policy platform (previously seen as being at the party's extreme) and that Smith didn't quite live up to the big-hitting gaffe-free competent leaderissimo that was billed, a big NOTO isn't surprising?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,422

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rather depressing that Brind - who has hidden his personal interest whilst repeatedly trying to spin Smith's chances here - is, now that polls have closed, trying rather obviously to recover a shred of credibility.

    The polls haven't closed yet
    As good as, given that Brind's effective concession is hardly going to affect anyone now. The number of people yet to complete their ballots who will actually get them back in time must be miniscule. The number who will first drop by PB to see if Mr Brind is still spinning his improbable yarn even fewer.
    How many votes do you think were swung by his articles?
    I doubt if any of us ever persuade anyone here. But we probably do influence betting, which is why it's important to disclose interests and be careful with one's assertions. I ran into flak here last year for (truthfully) saying early in the campaign that I expected to win and then not correcting it later when I had privately changed my mind to become more pessimistic. I don't really think it's realistic to expect people in the middle of campaigns to dismiss their chances (people can expect you not to make stuff up, but not to say everything you might think), but transparency about where one's coming from is of course helpful.
  • I use kayak when booking flights. It seems very comprehensive.

    Not secondary modern?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,563
    Labour has split into 2 groups

    1) Momentum
    2) Those who haven't quit the party yet.
  • MaxPB said:

    I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

    He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

    Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

    He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.
    Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

    David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

    Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.
    only the nutters join parties these days :)
    How very dare you madam!

    I've been a member of the Tory party for nearly 20 years, oh I see your point now.
  • MaxPB said:

    I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

    He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

    Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

    He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.
    Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

    David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

    Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.
    only the nutters join parties these days :)
    How very dare you madam!

    I've been a member of the Tory party for nearly 20 years, oh I see your point now.
    TSE = LibDem :lol: :lol:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,037

    I use kayak when booking flights. It seems very comprehensive.

    Kayak is very US focused, Skyscanner has far more comprehensive European coverage and better rest if world coverage.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,668
    edited September 2016
    I'm confused on the question of whether Article 50 negotiations, and negotiating an EU-UK trade deal (which are theoretically separate), will require unanimous agreement from the EU27 or can be agreed by qualified majority. I suspect I'm not the only one, but it's clearly a very important question.

    Look at this, for example:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-20/u-k-told-it-has-zero-chance-of-having-brexit-cake-and-eating-it

    While a final deal has to be approved by a qualified majority comprising of 72 percent of the remaining members and 65 percent of the EU population, any member can veto the process while granting the negotiating mandate, a process that will be updated by the bloc’s leaders, Prouza said.

    What does that mean?

    Article 50 clearly talks about a qualified majority, and I believe that pure trade deals can also be agreed by qualified majority. However, any deal which strays into areas not strictly about trade may need unanimous agreement.

    I think that the answer to this question will determine whether or not we end up with a very hard and bumpy Brexit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rather depressing that Brind - who has hidden his personal interest whilst repeatedly trying to spin Smith's chances here - is, now that polls have closed, trying rather obviously to recover a shred of credibility.

    The polls haven't closed yet
    As good as, given that Brind's effective concession is hardly going to affect anyone now. The number of people yet to complete their ballots who will actually get them back in time must be miniscule. The number who will first drop by PB to see if Mr Brind is still spinning his improbable yarn even fewer.
    How many votes do you think were swung by his articles?
    No idea (but don't underestimate PB?). He clearly thought it worthwhile to be on this site peddling his incredible spin and repeatedly avoided any mention of his very obvious partiality and personal interest despite a lot of posts from PB'ers under the first such article suggesting that he should do so.
  • TGOHF said:

    Labour has split into 2 groups

    1) Momentum
    2) Those who haven't quit the party yet.

    3 groups when you include Andy Burnham...
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 1,984
    Tim Farron is a bit weirdly vehement isn't he
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    edited September 2016

    MaxPB said:

    I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

    He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

    Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

    He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.
    Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

    David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

    Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.
    only the nutters join parties these days :)
    How very dare you madam!

    I've been a member of the Tory party for nearly 20 years, oh I see your point now.
    if you were in labour you would have been prevented from voting on account of your internet activity
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,896
    edited September 2016
    What are views on Ashdown's suggestion there will have to be a GE as May won't be able to get Brexit through Commons - as "hardline" Eurosceptics will vote against what they see as too "soft" a deal.

    I have two thoughts:

    1) Surely the deal won't go to a vote in the Commons until the end of the process - ie deal can't go to a vote until deal is completely negotiated. Which would be early 2019 (ie just under two years after Article 50, assuming that's done say April 2017).

    2) Surely deal would likely pass Commons given support of DUP / UUP / Carswell and almost certainly about 10 Lab MPs (ie Stuart, Howey, Field etc would vote for it). That would mean about 30 Con rebels would be required to defeat it.

    Would 30 Con MPs really vote against - in the knowledge that if the vote was lost we might well end up not leaving the EU at all?
  • I'm confused on the question of whether Article 50 negotiations, and negotiating an EU-UK trade deal (which are theoretically separate), will require unanimous agreement from the EU27 or can be agreed by qualified majority. I suspect I'm not the only one, but it's clearly a very important question.

    Look at this, for example:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-20/u-k-told-it-has-zero-chance-of-having-brexit-cake-and-eating-it

    While a final deal has to be approved by a qualified majority comprising of 72 percent of the remaining members and 65 percent of the EU population, any member can veto the process while granting the negotiating mandate, a process that will be updated by the bloc’s leaders, Prouza said.

    What does that mean?

    Article 50 clearly talks about a qualified majority, and I believe that pure trade deals can also be agreed by qualified majority. However, any deal which strays into areas not strictly about trade may need unanimous agreement.

    I think that the answer to this question will determine whether or not we end up with a very hard and bumpy Brexit.

    The final deal is without question subject to QMV - that's specified in Article 50 (paragraph 2). There may, however, be points along the way where effective or actual vetoes could be applied.

    Also worth noting that while individual member states don't have a veto on the deal, the European Parliament does.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2016
    Alistair said:

    Pong said:

    I've just (roughly) evened up my POTUS book by laying trump.

    The LA times & surveymonkey polls have spooked me.

    As the LA times African American figure falls back to its long term average so it will continue to narrow.

    If people have been thinking Trump has this locked up due to the LA Times tracker then that is very hasty thinking.
    Yeah.

    Betfair punters obviously don't take the LA times poll seriously, but the direction of travel is still a useful data point. Interestingly, punters also discount Trump's 538 win probability by 10 percentage points (or ~25%). I think it's likely this *arb* will hold right until November the 8th.

    If Clinton does win, it'll be at short odds.

    If Trump wins, he'll be value right until the very end.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347
    "Theresa May did so little in the Remain campaign that she actually made it look like Jeremy Corbyn pulled a shift "
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 1,984
    Love the Lib Dems stance

    We trigger Article 50 - irreversible exit
    We negotiate for 2 years on exit conditions

    Then

    We hold a referendum on whether to accept this negotiated position or
    ??? Ask to rejoin the EU under new conditions?
  • MaxPB said:

    I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

    He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

    Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

    He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.
    Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

    David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

    Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.
    only the nutters join parties these days :)
    How very dare you madam!

    I've been a member of the Tory party for nearly 20 years, oh I see your point now.
    if you were in labour you would have been prevented from voting on account of your internet activity
    I'm pro Corbyn, I wrote this thread that proves it.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

    I'm still very proud of this closer

    Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 1,984
    I don't think he likes the Tories very much
  • IanB2 said:

    As an organisation Momentum preaches openness, transparency and democracy. Funnily enough, though, its leadership is unelected and unaccountable. That Corbyn has thrown his hat in with them is, therefore, no huge surprise.

    Interesting on turnout. Clearly, neither candidate is inspiring much enthusiasm. For Owen Smith, that's by the by. For Jeremy Corbyn it would be a further sign that the writing is on the wall.

    Given the duration, publicity, exposure and campaigning, if a member doesn't vote it is hard to see it as anything other than NOTO.

    Given that they both stood on an identical policy platform (previously seen as being at the party's extreme) and that Smith didn't quite live up to the big-hitting gaffe-free competent leaderissimo that was billed, a big NOTO isn't surprising?

    Both are well to the left of me, but Smith recognised and stated clearly that Labour has to prioritise seeking to be a party of government so he was always going to get my vote. In addition to not sharing Corbyn's politics and his support for various deeply unpleasant causes, his lack of interest in engaging with ordinary voters and winning general elections were never going to do it for me. But as I wrote on here at the start of the summer, I am in a minority in Labour. Funnily enough, though, I am a lot more optimistic about the future than I was in June. Momentum's small membership and the low turnout tell me that Corbyn-fever will not endure.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,037
    Pong said:

    Alistair said:

    Pong said:

    I've just (roughly) evened up my POTUS book by laying trump.

    The LA times & surveymonkey polls have spooked me.

    As the LA times African American figure falls back to its long term average so it will continue to narrow.

    If people have been thinking Trump has this locked up due to the LA Times tracker then that is very hasty thinking.
    Yeah.

    Betfair punters obviously don't take the LA times poll seriously, but the direction of travel is still a useful data point. Interestingly, punters also discount Trump's 538 win probability by 10 percentage points. I think it's likely this *arb* will hold right until November the 8th.

    If Clinton does win, it'll be at short odds.

    If Trump wins, he'll be value right until the very end.
    I'm reasonably certain the debates will shake bettors up. Clinton winning the debates is clearly priced in at the moment.
  • MaxPB said:

    I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

    He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

    Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

    He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.
    Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

    David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

    Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.
    only the nutters join parties these days :)
    How very dare you madam!

    I've been a member of the Tory party for nearly 20 years, oh I see your point now.
    if you were in labour you would have been prevented from voting on account of your internet activity
    I'm pro Corbyn, I wrote this thread that proves it.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

    I'm still very proud of this closer

    Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.
    I was thinking more of your suggestions here of forming a rival political group "dry not fussed about gays or europe" IIRC

    ironically, seems the tories are more tolerant at this point in time...
  • well lib dems really are just labour-lit now aren't they.
This discussion has been closed.