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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What happened when Yvette Cooper made a last minute appeal

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    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    glw said:

    SeanT said:

    I don't know if anyone else listens to Dan Carlin's podcast Common Sense, but this is something he has been saying for a couple of years now at least.

    As any trader will tell you, if you are stuck lower, you want volatility, uncertainty. No matter how it comes. Put another way. Your downside is flat, your upside isn’t. Break the system.

    Trump is a box of dynamite for blowing apart a cosy consensus between two parties that have ignored a lot of ordinary Americans, whilst those parties gorge themselves on money from lobbyists who mostly represent the elite/establishment/rich.

    So whenever someone like Clinton says "Trump's a horrible racist who will cause all kinds of trouble," that's actually part of his appeal. The worse Trump is the more likely he is to end the current political consensus, and force Republican and Democrats to pay attention to those who vote for him.
    US politics is a fight between rival elite factions. If you're a blue collar White voter who realises both factions will dump on you economically, but one will pay lip service to your values, while the other regards you as racist, privileged scum, it's not hard to choose who to vote for.
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    SeanT said:


    No. Upper. Limit.

    That's just a restatement of the convention on refugees which applies to us too. It's the convention itself which is unsustainable and needs to be urgently revised to cope with a world where people trafficking is such a growth industry.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,125
    glw said:

    SeanT said:

    I don't know if anyone else listens to Dan Carlin's podcast Common Sense, but this is something he has been saying for a couple of years now at least.

    As any trader will tell you, if you are stuck lower, you want volatility, uncertainty. No matter how it comes. Put another way. Your downside is flat, your upside isn’t. Break the system.

    Trump is a box of dynamite for blowing apart a cosy consensus between two parties that have ignored a lot of ordinary Americans, whilst those parties gorge themselves on money from lobbyists who mostly represent the elite/establishment/rich.

    So whenever someone like Clinton says "Trump's a horrible racist who will cause all kinds of trouble," that's actually part of his appeal. The worse Trump is the more likely he is to end the current political consensus, and force Republican and Democrats to pay attention to those who vote for him.
    That really is an excellent piece. And the similarities with Brexit are huge. The haves have just stopped listening.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?
    It's a tipping point.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    RE: Nastiness amongst our so called elite. A Conservative Remainer MP referred to people who voted LEAVE as Neanderthals. This will be widely communicated by the time their reselection comes up to the selectorate.

    Surely it is acceptable for members of the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, the Green Party etc to refer to Conservatives as Neanderthals. It is just a way of referring to their backward-looking policies.

    But it is unacceptable for one Conservative to refer to another Conservative in these terms.

    It would become acceptable only if they belonged to different parties.

    Perhaps the fact that one Conservative MP has decided to do so suggests that the Conservative Party is now openly and irrevocably split.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?
    Because the mood re Muslims had already soured, for reasons you surely don'tneed me to rehearse, PLUS the vast majority of these new refugees were (despite the BBC's attempts to tell us otherwise) young men of fighting age, generally with low educational skills, perhaps concealing thousands of jihadis in their ranks.

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2016
    PClipp said:

    RE: Nastiness amongst our so called elite. A Conservative Remainer MP referred to people who voted LEAVE as Neanderthals. This will be widely communicated by the time their reselection comes up to the selectorate.

    ...But it is unacceptable for one Conservative to refer to another Conservative in these terms. It would become acceptable only if they belonged to different parties. Perhaps the fact that one Conservative MP has decided to do so suggests that the Conservative Party is now openly and irrevocably split.
    Just very loose talk. There is a looming split on Brexit between the REMAINer MPs and their Associations. The rules may prevent widespread deselections this time but the die is cast. That said the new boundaries and battle lines mean that people such as Osborne will struggle to get a seat.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The Bloomberg piece on the maths of Trump's rustbelt strategy is super interesting

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-09-13/tracing-donald-trump-s-rust-belt-route
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited September 2016
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?
    Because the mood re Muslims had already soured, for reasons you surely don'tneed me to rehearse, PLUS the vast majority of these new refugees were (despite the BBC's attempts to tell us otherwise) young men of fighting age, generally with low educational skills, perhaps concealing thousands of jihadis in their ranks.

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    Sarkozy is beginning to rise in the polls in France after promising to declare a 'merciless war' on Islamic terrorism and demanding that 'If you want to become French, you speak French, you live like the French. We will no longer settle for integration that does not work, we will require assimilation,' he said.
    'Once you become French, your ancestors are the Gauls. 'I love France, I learned the history of France, I see myself as French',' is what you must say.'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3798023/Nicolas-Sarkozy-demands-migrants-live-like-French.html

    Latest poll has Juppe on 35% and Sarko on 33% for LR nomination (the winner will probably face Le Pen in round 2)
    https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sondages_sur_la_primaire_présidentielle_des_Républicains_de_2016
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    Clinton currently 1.3% ahead of Trump in RCP poll average. Also down to a 55.5% chance of winning the Presidency on the fivethirtyeight forecast, a record low score. More interesting times...

    Wrong. Trump was briefly at >50% on fivethirtyeight in early August.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/20/bbc-journalists-paid-up-to-40-per-cent-more-than-commercial-riva/
    "They found that among 1,125 BBC senior broadcast journalists, a rank that covers many junior reporters and producers, the median pay was £49,000, forty per cent more than the average of £35,000 earned by those in comparable roles in the private sector."

    What on earth are they all doing? Could issue P45s to 50% of those "senior" journalists and there would still be too many.
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    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?
    It's a tipping point.
    The proportion of Muslims in the EU rising from 3.2% to 3.5% is a tipping point? Why?
  • Options
    MP_SE said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/20/bbc-journalists-paid-up-to-40-per-cent-more-than-commercial-riva/
    "They found that among 1,125 BBC senior broadcast journalists, a rank that covers many junior reporters and producers, the median pay was £49,000, forty per cent more than the average of £35,000 earned by those in comparable roles in the private sector."

    What on earth are they all doing? Could issue P45s to 50% of those "senior" journalists and there would still be too many.
    No money for GBBO....
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant analysis of the Trump phenomenon. With huge echoes of Brexit

    https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/trump-politics-and-option-pricing-or-why-trump-voters-are-not-idiots-1e364a4ed940#.w0mbxqipm

    And a new thread on same theme:

    https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/778289870456360961

    Also, relatedly, lots of the New Nastiness in politics is coming from the elite, and directed at the Trump/Leave proles.

    I didn't find that it told me anything I hadn't already heard several times before.

    Lots of opinion masquerading as factual analysis about 'the elite' that is now the norm in political discourse on both sides of the Atlantic.

    The photographic portraits are, however, excellent.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Sean_F said:

    US politics is a fight between rival elite factions. If you're a blue collar White voter who realises both factions will dump on you economically, but one will pay lip service to your values, while the other regards you as racist, privileged scum, it's not hard to choose who to vote for.

    Carlin's view — trying to summarise a guy who can talk for hours about this stuff is not easy — is that working class voters have realised for quite a while now that neither side does them any good, no matter how they speak to those voters. Now normally that realisation wouldn't make much difference for those voters, they would still have to vote for one of the major parties, or "waste" their vote on an independent or third party candidate. But this time around there's a party with a candidate who horrifies his party bosses almost as much as he horrifies the opposition.

    Trump is a candidate that should never have happened, running for one of political duopoly's parties, and all the ignored voters need to do now is vote for him and let all hell break loose.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    HOWEVER... I still harbour this sneaking suspicion that Trump might just pull it off.

    To my mind there's no reason why Trump shouldn't win a state like Oregon and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pick up a few in new England that aren't currently seen as in play. The assumptions about the electoral college arithmetic may be quite wrong.

    Trump might win the election.

    He won't, however, win Oregon, except in PBers' warped fantasies.
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    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.

    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?
    Because the mood re Muslims had already soured, for reasons you surely don'tneed me to rehearse, PLUS the vast majority of these new refugees were (despite the BBC's attempts to tell us otherwise) young men of fighting age, generally with low educational skills, perhaps concealing thousands of jihadis in their ranks.

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "According to a study by the Munich-based Ifo institute the educational level of the majority of refugees is below average. So were in 2013 in the Turkish camps according to a survey of the Turkish Office for Disaster and Emergency Management 16.1% of Syrian refugees are illiterate, further 7.8% have no education, 34.5% only a primary school education, 21.6% a lower secondary school."

    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2016

    HOWEVER... I still harbour this sneaking suspicion that Trump might just pull it off.

    To my mind there's no reason why Trump shouldn't win a state like Oregon and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pick up a few in new England that aren't currently seen as in play. The assumptions about the electoral college arithmetic may be quite wrong.

    Have you ever been to Oregon.....Portland makes Brighton look right wing.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Clinton currently 1.3% ahead of Trump in RCP poll average. Also down to a 55.5% chance of winning the Presidency on the fivethirtyeight forecast, a record low score. More interesting times...

    Wrong. Trump was briefly at >50% on fivethirtyeight in early August.
    Not according to their own graph he wasn't. In fact, Trump's odds lengthened significantly around that time.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    DavidL said:

    That really is an excellent piece. And the similarities with Brexit are huge. The haves have just stopped listening.

    They stopped listening many years ago. I read a book all about this sort of thing, The United States of Anger by Gavin Esler, it was published in 1997. Since then things have only gotten worse for a lot of Americans, not necessarily in absolute terms but certainly in relative terms.
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    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant analysis of the Trump phenomenon. With huge echoes of Brexit

    https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/trump-politics-and-option-pricing-or-why-trump-voters-are-not-idiots-1e364a4ed940#.w0mbxqipm

    And a new thread on same theme:

    https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/778289870456360961

    Also, relatedly, lots of the New Nastiness in politics is coming from the elite, and directed at the Trump/Leave proles.

    I didn't find that it told me anything I hadn't already heard several times before.

    Lots of opinion masquerading as factual analysis about 'the elite' that is now the norm in political discourse on both sides of the Atlantic.

    The photographic portraits are, however, excellent.
    Sadly voters are now keen to believe things they think *should* be true, even when indisuptible evidence shows they are not. Such is our post-truth society.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Trump getting close to the 50/50 mark on the nowcast on 538 :D. When did I last link the Clinton landslide article? :p
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    Jobabob said:

    HOWEVER... I still harbour this sneaking suspicion that Trump might just pull it off.

    To my mind there's no reason why Trump shouldn't win a state like Oregon and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pick up a few in new England that aren't currently seen as in play. The assumptions about the electoral college arithmetic may be quite wrong.
    Trump might win the election.

    He won't, however, win Oregon, except in PBers' warped fantasies.
    Reuters has him running Clinton very close already. There's not much enthusiasm for her there.
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    Alistair said:

    Clinton currently 1.3% ahead of Trump in RCP poll average. Also down to a 55.5% chance of winning the Presidency on the fivethirtyeight forecast, a record low score. More interesting times...

    It's 52-48 in the Now-cast
    Someone will doubtless appear before long to remind me that Clinton has a firewall, and that there aren't quite enough swing states available to see Trump over the finishing line. I'm even less of an authority on American elections than I am on British ones, so they'll probably be proven right. HOWEVER... I still harbour this sneaking suspicion that Trump might just pull it off.
    Here is one such article pointing out the massive early voting windows in US states favour the side with the best GOTV operation.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-09-20/gaming-the-six-week-election-day
    thatd be the democrats: trump hasnt got as good an operation in most states
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?
    It's a tipping point.
    The proportion of Muslims in the EU rising from 3.2% to 3.5% is a tipping point? Why?
    Terrorism? Racist gang rape of white girls? The burqa? Honour killings? Cousin marriage? Sharia courts?

    Take your pick, really. In the last few years it became clear - as Trevor Phillips noted recently - that many Muslims, unlike all other prior immigrants, had no intention of integrating. And that they had brought with them some pretty barbaric beliefs which they were quite happy to maintain. And that younger generations were even more fundamentalist.

    This isn't quantum physics. All pretty obvious.
    I think you may be suffering from a degree of confirmation bias.
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,929
    Lib Dem candidate in Witney is Liz Leffman. She is a local councillor and has fought the seat before.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.

    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?
    Because the mood re Muslims had already soured, for reasons you surely don'tneed me to rehearse, PLUS the vast majority of these new refugees were (despite the BBC's attempts to tell us otherwise) young men of fighting age, generally with low educational skills, perhaps concealing thousands of jihadis in their ranks.

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "According to a study by the Munich-based Ifo institute the educational level of the majority of refugees is below average. So were in 2013 in the Turkish camps according to a survey of the Turkish Office for Disaster and Emergency Management 16.1% of Syrian refugees are illiterate, further 7.8% have no education, 34.5% only a primary school education, 21.6% a lower secondary school."

    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    65% of Syrian refugees are believed to be illiterate and only 10% have university level education according to Ludger Woessmann.

    http://www.zeit.de/2015/47/integration-fluechtlinge-schule-bildung-herausforderung
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Clinton currently 1.3% ahead of Trump in RCP poll average. Also down to a 55.5% chance of winning the Presidency on the fivethirtyeight forecast, a record low score. More interesting times...

    It's 52-48 in the Now-cast
    Someone will doubtless appear before long to remind me that Clinton has a firewall, and that there aren't quite enough swing states available to see Trump over the finishing line. I'm even less of an authority on American elections than I am on British ones, so they'll probably be proven right. HOWEVER... I still harbour this sneaking suspicion that Trump might just pull it off.
    Unfortunately it’s hard to make a profit betting simultaneously on both sides.
    Or a reputation.

    "The polls and experts are probably right but I have a hunch they could be wrong."

    How we long for South's Romney ramping of 2012.
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    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    My fear as a proeaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.

    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?
    Because

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "A
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    There's been a billion studies since. The refugees have considerably lower educational skills than Germans. 29% - nearly one third - are educated only to primary school level. Barely literate.

    Germany has taken on an enormous burden.

    http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Publikationen/Kurzanalysen/kurzanalyse3_sozial-komponenten.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    Furthermore, what you normally find if you have a nasty dictator in charge for a fair amount of time is the talented people have f##ked off a long time before the s##t hits the fan.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SeanT

    '50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.'


    Clearly people have had enough in several western countries.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    edited September 2016


    Have you ever been to Oregon.....Portland makes Brighton look right wing.

    There is enough polling and anecdotal evidence of Trump doing well in surprising places that I wouldn't write it off. If Trump can possibly in Maine then why not? I've also heard that he is ahead in Nassau County, Long Island.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    HOWEVER... I still harbour this sneaking suspicion that Trump might just pull it off.

    To my mind there's no reason why Trump shouldn't win a state like Oregon and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pick up a few in new England that aren't currently seen as in play. The assumptions about the electoral college arithmetic may be quite wrong.
    Trump might win the election.

    He won't, however, win Oregon, except in PBers' warped fantasies.
    Reuters has him running Clinton very close already. There's not much enthusiasm for her there.
    Clinton will win Oregon.
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @KentRising

    'Has the same question been asked here? Because I should imagine the results would be similar.'

    Would a similar poll be allowed in this country ?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,217
    edited September 2016
    glw said:

    Sean_F said:

    US politics is a fight between rival elite factions. If you're a blue collar White voter who realises both factions will dump on you economically, but one will pay lip service to your values, while the other regards you as racist, privileged scum, it's not hard to choose who to vote for.

    Carlin's view — trying to summarise a guy who can talk for hours about this stuff is not easy — is that working class voters have realised for quite a while now that neither side does them any good, no matter how they speak to those voters. Now normally that realisation wouldn't make much difference for those voters, they would still have to vote for one of the major parties, or "waste" their vote on an independent or third party candidate. But this time around there's a party with a candidate who horrifies his party bosses almost as much as he horrifies the opposition.

    Trump is a candidate that should never have happened, running for one of political duopoly's parties, and all the ignored voters need to do now is vote for him and let all hell break loose.
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant analysis of the Trump phenomenon. With huge echoes of Brexit

    https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/trump-politics-and-option-pricing-or-why-trump-voters-are-not-idiots-1e364a4ed940#.w0mbxqipm

    And a new thread on same theme:

    https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/778289870456360961

    Also, relatedly, lots of the New Nastiness in politics is coming from the elite, and directed at the Trump/Leave proles.

    I didn't find that it told me anything I hadn't already heard several times before.

    Lots of opinion masquerading as factual analysis about 'the elite' that is now the norm in political discourse on both sides of the Atlantic.

    The photographic portraits are, however, excellent.
    I think the mistake in his analysis is the suggestion that the elite don't believe they are the elite.

    I think they do. They believe that they are the smart ones, the right ones, the blessed ones. The parallels with aristocracy of the old, hereditary kind are intriguing. And, in fact their privilege is becoming hereditary.

    The new barons are not really the bankers, or the billionaires. They have a share. But it is the faceless tribe, on 6 figures, effortlessly moving between roles leaving a trail of failure through government, business and the "third sector". For which they need to be thanked. And listened to.

    And they hate, hate, hate the plebs. And thank themselves that they are not the unwashed mob each and every day.

  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    PClipp said:

    RE: Nastiness amongst our so called elite. A Conservative Remainer MP referred to people who voted LEAVE as Neanderthals. This will be widely communicated by the time their reselection comes up to the selectorate.

    ...But it is unacceptable for one Conservative to refer to another Conservative in these terms. It would become acceptable only if they belonged to different parties. Perhaps the fact that one Conservative MP has decided to do so suggests that the Conservative Party is now openly and irrevocably split.
    Just very loose talk. There is a looming split on Brexit between the REMAINer MPs and their Associations. The rules may prevent widespread deselections this time but the die is cast. That said the new boundaries and battle lines mean that people such as Osborne will struggle to get a seat.
    But presumably, Mr Betting, the Referendum is just one aspect of the split in the Conservative Party - symbolic of a split on all kinds of other issues - such as the reintroduction of the Eleven Plus.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669


    Have you ever been to Oregon.....Portland makes Brighton look right wing.

    There is enough polling and anecdotal evidence of Trump doing well in surprising places that I wouldn't write it off. If Trump can possibly in Maine then why not? I've also heard that he is ahead in Nassau County, Long Island.
    Nassau is the western end of LI, a dormitory for the city. How's he doing in Suffolk county LI?
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited September 2016
    Hungary happy for its own people to travel and settle across Europe but anti immigration into Hungary from the Middle East and beyond. Their Minister on Newsnight refuses to see the hypocrisy.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?

    Because

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "A
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    There's been a billion studies since. The refugees have considerably lower educational skills than Germans. 29% - nearly one third - are educated only to primary school level. Barely literate.

    Germany has taken on an enormous burden.

    http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Publikationen/Kurzanalysen/kurzanalyse3_sozial-komponenten.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    Yes, lower than Germans. That's hardly surprising, is it, given the circumstances? But still very likely higher than average for Syria and thus with the potential to do well given decent conditions. History teaches us that those that flee conflict are frequently the best and brightest of their country. Look at, for example, Jews from Nazi Germany or Asians fleeing Idi Amin's regime. Or the Huguenots fleeing France, or those who fled to America from religious persecution in Europe.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,284
    edited September 2016

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    Has the same question been asked here? Because I should imagine the results would be similar.
    Kinda, this is the last poll I can remember on this topic, was from last December, there may have been subsequent polls, but I can't remember them.

    Almost one in three Britons would support a temporary ban on Muslims entering the UK, similar to that proposed by US presidential candidate Donald Trump, a new Sky Data poll reveals.

    Some 29% of the public would back such a ban on Muslims who are not citizens of the UK coming into the country. The majority of Britons (51%) would oppose such a move, however, with 43% strongly opposing.


    http://news.sky.com/story/sky-poll-30-support-trumps-muslim-ban-call-10335761
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2016


    There is enough polling and anecdotal evidence of Trump doing well in surprising places that I wouldn't write it off. If Trump can possibly in Maine then why not? I've also heard that he is ahead in Nassau County, Long Island.

    I would be just incredibly shocked if Trump is even vaguely competitive in Oregon in the end. Portland is liberal city central (and the only big city in the state) and huge numbers of people have moved there from the massively Democrat state of California in the past 10 years.

    The trend for the past 30 years has been getting basically more and more Democrat every election.
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2016
    slade said:

    Lib Dem candidate in Witney is Liz Leffman. She is a local councillor and has fought the seat before.

    She is always a local where ever she stands! A local in Hampshire in 2010 and a local in Brigg and Goole in 2015 etc etc.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,217

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?
    It's a tipping point.
    The proportion of Muslims in the EU rising from 3.2% to 3.5% is a tipping point? Why?
    Terrorism? Racist gang rape of white girls? The burqa? Honour killings? Cousin marriage? Sharia courts?

    Take your pick, really. In the last few years it became clear - as Trevor Phillips noted recently - that many Muslims, unlike all other prior immigrants, had no intention of integrating. And that they had brought with them some pretty barbaric beliefs which they were quite happy to maintain. And that younger generations were even more fundamentalist.

    This isn't quantum physics. All pretty obvious.
    I think you may be suffering from a degree of confirmation bias.
    Think on this - why is it that a Labour government improved, affirmed and made higher the barriers that ensured that Jean Charles de Menezes couldn't be in the country legally? I guess that some people are the wrong kind of immigrant.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?

    Because

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "A
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    There's been a billion studies since. The refugees have considerably lower educational skills than Germans. 29% - nearly one third - are educated only to primary school level. Barely literate.

    Germany has taken on an enormous burden.

    http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Publikationen/Kurzanalysen/kurzanalyse3_sozial-komponenten.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    Yes, lower than Germans. That's hardly surprising, is it, given the circumstances? But still very likely higher than average for Syria and thus with the potential to do well given decent conditions. History teaches us that those that flee conflict are frequently the best and brightest of their country. Look at, for example, Jews from Nazi Germany or Asians fleeing Idi Amin's regime. Or the Huguenots fleeing France, or those who fled to America from religious persecution in Europe.
    You're delusional. I give up.
    Don't feed the trolls.....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    glw said:

    Sean_F said:

    US politics is a fight between rival elite factions. If you're a blue collar White voter who realises both factions will dump on you economically, but one will pay lip service to your values, while the other regards you as racist, privileged scum, it's not hard to choose who to vote for.

    Carlin's view — trying to summarise a guy who can talk for hours about this stuff is not easy — is that working class voters have realised for quite a while now that neither side does them any good, no matter how they speak to those voters. Now normally that realisation wouldn't make much difference for those voters, they would still have to vote for one of the major parties, or "waste" their vote on an independent or third party candidate. But this time around there's a party with a candidate who horrifies his party bosses almost as much as he horrifies the opposition.

    Trump is a candidate that should never have happened, running for one of political duopoly's parties, and all the ignored voters need to do now is vote for him and let all hell break loose.
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant analysis of the Trump phenomenon. With huge echoes of Brexit

    https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/trump-politics-and-option-pricing-or-why-trump-voters-are-not-idiots-1e364a4ed940#.w0mbxqipm

    And a new thread on same theme:

    https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/778289870456360961

    Also, relatedly, lots of the New Nastiness in politics is coming from the elite, and directed at the Trump/Leave proles.

    I didn't find that it told me anything I hadn't
    I think the mistake in his analysis is the suggestion that the elite don't believe they are the elite.

    I think they do. They believe that they are the smart ones, the right ones, the blessed ones. The parallels with ari

    This is the key bit of the article 'The elites have removed themselves physically. They cluster in certain towns (NYC, LA, Northern Virginia, Boston) and within those towns in certain neighborhoods. They dress differently. They eat differently. There is a culture of elitism.

    The best single measure of elitism I see is education, the type and amount. A Harvard professor of sociology is more similar (despite different politics) to a Wall Street trader, than either is to a truck driver in Appleton, Wisconsin, or a waitress in Selma, or a construction worker in Detroit....The elites by and large control things. They control the money. They control the rules on how you make it. They also control the social capital. They set/define what is acceptable, what is allowable, and what is frowned on. (In snazzy academic speak: The elites define what is valid cultural capital, and have defined it to further empower themselves)'
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,319
    SeanT said:



    No. She and her government deliberately said all refugees are welcome. And We Can Cope.


    ""There can be no upper limit set on the intake of people who are fleeing persecution and need protection," Schmidt said. The majority of people arriving have been coming from war-torn nations like Syria and Iraq, according to human rights organizations."

    http://www.ibtimes.com/eu-migrant-crisis-2015-no-limit-number-refugees-germany-will-welcome-2075312

    No. Upper. Limit.

    Germany has just announced that they'll take some more, as have the US, Sweden, Australia, Argentina, and Portugal.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    glw said:

    Sean_F said:

    US politics is a fight between rival elite factions. If you're a blue collar White voter who realises both factions will dump on you economically, but one will pay lip service to your values, while the other regards you as racist, privileged scum, it's not hard to choose who to vote for.

    Carlin's view — trying to summarise a guy who can talk for hours about this stuff is not easy — is that working class voters have realised for quite a while now that neither side does them any good, no matter how they speak to those voters. Now normally that realisation wouldn't make much difference for those voters, they would still have to vote for one of the major parties, or "waste" their vote on an independent or third party candidate. But this time around there's a party with a candidate who horrifies his party bosses almost as much as he horrifies the opposition.

    Trump is a candidate that should never have happened, running for one of political duopoly's parties, and all the ignored voters need to do now is vote for him and let all hell break loose.
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant analysis of the Trump phenomenon. With huge echoes of Brexit

    https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/trump-politics-and-option-pricing-or-why-trump-voters-are-not-idiots-1e364a4ed940#.w0mbxqipm

    And a new thread on same theme:

    https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/778289870456360961

    Also, relatedly, lots of the New Nastiness in politics is coming from the elite, and directed at the Trump/Leave proles.

    I didn't find that it told me anything I hadn't already heard several times before.

    Lots of opinion masquerading as factual analysis about 'the elite' that is now the norm in political discourse on both sides of the Atlantic.

    The photographic portraits are, however, excellent.
    I think the mistake in his analysis is the suggestion that the elite don't believe they are the elite.

    I think they do. They believe that they are the smart ones, the right ones, the blessed ones. The parallels with aristocracy of the old, hereditary kind are intriguing. And, in fact their privilege is becoming hereditary.

    The new barons are not really the bankers, or the billionaires. They have a share. But it is the faceless tribe, on 6 figures, effortlessly moving between roles leaving a trail of failure through government, business and the "third sector". For which they need to be thanked. And listened to.

    And they hate, hate, hate the plebs. And thank themselves that they are not the unwashed mob each and every day.

    Wow. No wonder this anti-elite stuff is popular!
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,890
    edited September 2016
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?

    Because

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "A
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    There's been a billion studies since. The refugees have considerably lower educational skills than Germans. 29% - nearly one third - are educated only to primary school level. Barely literate.

    Germany has taken on an enormous burden.

    http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Publikationen/Kurzanalysen/kurzanalyse3_sozial-komponenten.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    Yes, lower than Germans. That's hardly surprising, is it, given the circumstances? But still very likely higher than average for Syria and thus with the potential to do well given decent conditions. History teaches us that those that flee conflict are frequently the best and brightest of their country. Look at, for example, Jews from Nazi Germany or Asians fleeing Idi Amin's regime. Or the Huguenots fleeing France, or those who fled to America from religious persecution in Europe.
    You're delusional. I give up.
    No, you're delusional. That's why your attempts to justify your gut feelings with facts keep failing. Unfortunately, the world is full of people happy to be led by their emotions rather than reason, and we'll all pay the price for it.
  • Options
    MP_SE said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/20/bbc-journalists-paid-up-to-40-per-cent-more-than-commercial-riva/
    "They found that among 1,125 BBC senior broadcast journalists, a rank that covers many junior reporters and producers, the median pay was £49,000, forty per cent more than the average of £35,000 earned by those in comparable roles in the private sector."

    What on earth are they all doing? Could issue P45s to 50% of those "senior" journalists and there would still be too many.
    There are even more of the feckers....
    Analysis of the pay-packets of 1,781 staff at the rank of broadcast journalist, which mainly encompasses researchers and junior producers, found that BBC workers were paid an average of £37,500, 34 per cent more than comparable staff at commercial rivals, who earn £28,000.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,383
    Is it not the case that this is just how the far left do their political campaigning? Is this just an extension of all those years of hating 'Tories'.

    That David Richardson chap does not seem to be the sharpest knife in the drawer though.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/daveyrich62/status/777174560827445249
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    edited September 2016

    slade said:

    Lib Dem candidate in Witney is Liz Leffman. She is a local councillor and has fought the seat before.

    She is always a local where ever she stands! A local in Hampshire in 2010 and a local in Brigg and Goole in 2015 etc etc.
    Winning here! And here! And over there!
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,217
    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    Sean_F said:

    US politics is a fight between rival elite factions. If you're a blue collar White voter who realises both factions will dump on you economically, but one will pay lip service to your values, while the other regards you as racist, privileged scum, it's not hard to choose who to vote for.

    :

    Trump is a candidate that should never have happened, running for one of political duopoly's parties, and all the ignored voters need to do now is vote for him and let all hell break loose.
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant analysis of the Trump phenomenon. With huge echoes of Brexit

    https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/trump-politics-and-option-pricing-or-why-trump-voters-are-not-idiots-1e364a4ed940#.w0mbxqipm

    And a new thread on same theme:

    https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/778289870456360961

    Also, relatedly, lots of the New Nastiness in politics is coming from the elite, and directed at the Trump/Leave proles.

    I didn't find that it told me anything I hadn't
    I think the mistake in his analysis is the suggestion that the elite don't believe they are the elite.

    I think they do. They believe that they are the smart ones, the right ones, the blessed ones. The parallels with ari

    This is the key bit of the article 'The elites have removed themselves physically. They cluster in certain towns (NYC, LA, Northern Virginia, Boston) and within those towns in certain neighborhoods. They dress differently. They eat differently. There is a culture of elitism.

    The best single measure of elitism I see is education, the type and amount. A Harvard professor of sociology is more similar (despite different politics) to a Wall Street trader, than either is to a truck driver in Appleton, Wisconsin, or a waitress in Selma, or a construction worker in Detroit....The elites by and large control things. They control the money. They control the rules on how you make it. They also control the social capital. They set/define what is acceptable, what is allowable, and what is frowned on. (In snazzy academic speak: The elites define what is valid cultural capital, and have defined it to further empower themselves)'
    But he further states that "Where do most of the press and elites get it wrong? They don’t believe that we live in a two-tiered system. They don’t believe, or know they are in, the top tier."

    I think they glory in it.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    Has the same question been asked here? Because I should imagine the results would be similar.
    Kinda, this is the last poll I can remember on this topic, was from last December, there may have been subsequent polls, but I can't remember them.

    Almost one in three Britons would support a temporary ban on Muslims entering the UK, similar to that proposed by US presidential candidate Donald Trump, a new Sky Data poll reveals.

    Some 29% of the public would back such a ban on Muslims who are not citizens of the UK coming into the country. The majority of Britons (51%) would oppose such a move, however, with 43% strongly opposing.


    http://news.sky.com/story/sky-poll-30-support-trumps-muslim-ban-call-10335761
    Similar, though that was on entry to the UK rather than immigration as such
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?

    Because

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "A
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    There's been a billion studies since. The refugees have considerably lower educational skills than Germans. 29% - nearly one third - are educated only to primary school level. Barely literate.

    Germany has taken on an enormous burden.

    http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Publikationen/Kurzanalysen/kurzanalyse3_sozial-komponenten.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    Yes, lower than Germans. That's hardly surprising, is it, given the circumstances? But still very likely higher than average for Syria and thus with the potential to do well given decent conditions. History teaches us that those that flee conflict are frequently the best and brightest of their country. Look at, for example, Jews from Nazi Germany or Asians fleeing Idi Amin's regime. Or the Huguenots fleeing France, or those who fled to America from religious persecution in Europe.
    Recent data on asylum seekers in Germany suggests otherwise.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    Sean_F said:

    US politics is a fight between rival elite factions. If you're a blue collar White voter who realises both factions will dump on you economically, but one will pay lip service to your values, while the other regards you as racist, privileged scum, it's not hard to choose who to vote for.

    :

    Trump is a candidate that should never have happened, running for one of political duopoly's parties, and all the ignored voters need to do now is vote for him and let all hell break loose.
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant analysis of the Trump phenomenon. With huge echoes of Brexit

    https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/trump-politics-and-option-pricing-or-why-trump-voters-are-not-idiots-1e364a4ed940#.w0mbxqipm

    And a new thread on same theme:

    https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/778289870456360961

    Also, relatedly, lots of the New Nastiness in politics is coming from the elite, and directed at the Trump/Leave proles.

    I didn't find that it told me anything I hadn't
    I think the mistake in his analysis is the suggestion that the elite don't believe they are the elite.

    I think they do. They believe that they are the smart ones, the right ones, the blessed ones. The parallels with ari

    This is the key bit of the article 'The elites have removed themselves physically. They cluster in certain towns (NYC, LA, Northern Virginia, Boston) and within those towns in certain neighborhoods. They dress differently. They eat differently. There is a culture of elitism.

    The best single measure of elitism I see is education, the type and amount. A Harvard professor of sociology is more similar (despite different politics) to a Wall Street trader, than either is to a truck driver in Appleton, Wisconsin, or a waitress in Selma, or a construction worker in Detroit....The elites by and large control things. They control the money. They control the rules on how you make it. They also control the social capital. They set/define what is acceptable, what is allowable, and what is frowned on. (In snazzy academic speak: The elites define what is valid cultural capital, and have defined it to further empower themselves)'
    But he further states that "Where do most of the press and elites get it wrong? They don’t believe that we live in a two-tiered system. They don’t believe, or know they are in, the top tier."

    I think they glory in it.
    Unless they work for Fox, in which case they exploit the resentment while staying in the elite
  • Options
    Labour's NEC fails to agree how shadow cabinet should be formed

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37416853
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited September 2016
    MP_SE said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?

    Because

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "A
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    There's been a billion studies since. The refugees have considerably lower educational skills than Germans. 29% - nearly one third - are educated only to primary school level. Barely literate.

    Germany has taken on an enormous burden.

    http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Publikationen/Kurzanalysen/kurzanalyse3_sozial-komponenten.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    Yes, lower than Germans. That's hardly surprising, is it, given the circumstances? But still very likely higher than average for Syria and thus with the potential to do well given decent conditions. History teaches us that those that flee conflict are frequently the best and brightest of their country. Look at, for example, Jews from Nazi Germany or Asians fleeing Idi Amin's regime. Or the Huguenots fleeing France, or those who fled to America from religious persecution in Europe.
    Recent data on asylum seekers in Germany suggests otherwise.
    Similarly, Newsnight yesterday said that a third of all people now living on the streets in the UK are EU migrants. Not all of them, then, are doctors, nurses, everyone's friendly plumber etc etc.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?

    Because

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "A
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    There's been a billion studies since. The refugees have considerably lower educational skills than Germans. 29% - nearly one third - are educated only to primary school level. Barely literate.

    Germany has taken on an enormous burden.

    http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Publikationen/Kurzanalysen/kurzanalyse3_sozial-komponenten.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    Yes, lower than Germans. That's hardly surprising, is it, given the circumstances? But still very likely higher than average for Syria and thus with the potential to do well given decent conditions. History teaches us that those that flee conflict are frequently the best and brightest of their country. Look at, for example, Jews from Nazi Germany or Asians fleeing Idi Amin's regime. Or the Huguenots fleeing France, or those who fled to America from religious persecution in Europe.
    You're delusional. I give up.
    No, you're delusional. That's why your attempts to justify your gut feelings with facts keep failing. Unfortunately, the world is full of people happy to be led by their emotions rather than reason, and we'll all pay the price for it.
    lol. I've given you facts. Numbers. Stats. Links. You just blither on.

    The only failure is your failure to believe actual numbers, and your allied preference for post-truth anecdotage.


    Let's talk when you have some evidence.
    I believe the numbers. It's just that they don't say what you think they say.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,217
    MattW said:

    Is it not the case that this is just how the far left do their political campaigning? Is this just an extension of all those years of hating 'Tories'.

    That David Richardson chap does not seem to be the sharpest knife in the drawer though.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/daveyrich62/status/777174560827445249

    The revolution always eats itself. First anything goes against Tories. Then anyone who allies with Tories. Then anyone who sounds like a Tory....

    Bit like the Babylon 5 episode where an ancient race built a weapon that would destroy anything that wasn't or their race - and pure. The remains of the weapon were found on their dead planet......
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MP_SE said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/20/bbc-journalists-paid-up-to-40-per-cent-more-than-commercial-riva/
    "They found that among 1,125 BBC senior broadcast journalists, a rank that covers many junior reporters and producers, the median pay was £49,000, forty per cent more than the average of £35,000 earned by those in comparable roles in the private sector."

    What on earth are they all doing? Could issue P45s to 50% of those "senior" journalists and there would still be too many.
    Fundamentally, the Beeb is profligate because it has a guaranteed income stream extracted from the taxpayer, so it has little encouragement towards efficiency. It's also full of left-leaning metro types for whom all "cuts" are anathema, and careers in public service (e.g. all of theirs) are morally superior, and thus fully deserving of enhanced protection and rewards - relative to those in grubby, money-making little businesses.

    No commercial organisation can afford these inflated salaries, which is why they don't pay them. The Beeb also treats all of its services as sacred cows, and there's always a huge brouhaha whenever it is suggested that one is got rid of. A bit like people protesting against the closure of an old and superfluous district hospital, on the grounds of emotional attachment rather than real functional value.

    It doesn't have to be this way. For example, BBC4 only does what BBC2 was meant to do in the first place. It would not take much planning or imagination to merge them back together again, and this would also prioritise quality over quantity. The rolling news channel is entirely unnecessary, and closing it would save a fortune. Perfectly straightforward and sensible measures, but they're institutionally incapable of making them. Just shifting BBC3 from terrestrial to online nearly caused a collective nervous breakdown, for goodness sake.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Labour's NEC fails to agree how shadow cabinet should be formed

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37416853

    Perhaps Corbyn should dissolve the council permanently? :D
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,383
    Extra bit

    It seems to me that the LGBTXYZ Civil Wars are every bit as vicious, as are feminist reactions to people who want to have different opinions or ask the wrong questions. See the Guardian character assassination on Philip Davies a couple of weeks ago, for example.

    I suspect it is rooted in a towering conviction of being right and a willingness to deny others the chance to disagree other than theoretically.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,929
    Cardiff result: LD 1258, Lab 910, PC 177, Con 115, Green 93, UKIP 62. LD gain from Labour.
  • Options

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?

    Because

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "A
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    There's been a billion studies since. The refugees have considerably lower educational skills than Germans. 29% - nearly one third - are educated only to primary school level. Barely literate.

    Germany has taken on an enormous burden.

    http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Publikationen/Kurzanalysen/kurzanalyse3_sozial-komponenten.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    Yes, lower than Germans. That's hardly surprising, is it, given the circumstances? But still very likely higher than average for Syria and thus with the potential to do well given decent conditions. History teaches us that those that flee conflict are frequently the best and brightest of their country. Look at, for example, Jews from Nazi Germany or Asians fleeing Idi Amin's regime. Or the Huguenots fleeing France, or those who fled to America from religious persecution in Europe.
    You're delusional. I give up.
    No, you're delusional. That's why your attempts to justify your gut feelings with facts keep failing. Unfortunately, the world is full of people happy to be led by their emotions rather than reason, and we'll all pay the price for it.
    Recently Merkel complained that of the 1m refugees only 54 had got jobs with large companies.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,217
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    Sean_F said:


    :

    :
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant analysis of the Trump phenomenon. With huge echoes of Brexit

    https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/trump-politics-and-option-pricing-or-why-trump-voters-are-not-idiots-1e364a4ed940#.w0mbxqipm

    And a new thread on same theme:

    https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/778289870456360961

    Also, relatedly, lots of the New Nastiness in politics is coming from the elite, and directed at the Trump/Leave proles.

    I didn't find that it told me anything I hadn't
    I think the mistake in his analysis is the suggestion that the elite don't believe they are the elite.

    I think they do. They believe that they are the smart ones, the right ones, the blessed ones. The parallels with ari

    This is the key bit of the article 'The elites have removed themselves physically. They cluster in certain towns (NYC, LA, Northern Virginia, Boston) and within those towns in certain neighborhoods. They dress differently. They eat differently. There is a culture of elitism.

    The best single measure of elitism I see is education, the type and amount. A Harvard professor of sociology is more similar (despite different politics) to a Wall Street trader, than either is to a truck driver in Appleton, Wisconsin, or a waitress in Selma, or a construction worker in Detroit....The elites by and large control things. They control the money. They control the rules on how you make it. They also control the social capital. They set/define what is acceptable, what is allowable, and what is frowned on. (In snazzy academic speak: The elites define what is valid cultural capital, and have defined it to further empower themselves)'
    But he further states that "Where do most of the press and elites get it wrong? They don’t believe that we live in a two-tiered system. They don’t believe, or know they are in, the top tier."

    I think they glory in it.
    Unless they work for Fox, in which case they exploit the resentment while staying in the elite
    Yes indeed. They are another facet of the same thing. Nonetheless, this is what I hear when our precious Optimates speak -

    '"Liberty, Equality, Fraternity."
    Liberty must be rationed among the few
    with the talent to use it.
    There's no such thing as equality.
    Most men are born with the gutter
    and are at home there.
    As for fraternity,
    a de Maynes is nobody's brother.
    We stand alone at the head of the table...
    and if ever our rights are challenged,
    this is our answer.'
  • Options

    Labour's NEC fails to agree how shadow cabinet should be formed

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37416853

    Corbyn delays matter until the new NEC where he has more votes.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    SeanT said:



    No. She and her government deliberately said all refugees are welcome. And We Can Cope.


    ""There can be no upper limit set on the intake of people who are fleeing persecution and need protection," Schmidt said. The majority of people arriving have been coming from war-torn nations like Syria and Iraq, according to human rights organizations."

    http://www.ibtimes.com/eu-migrant-crisis-2015-no-limit-number-refugees-germany-will-welcome-2075312

    No. Upper. Limit.

    Germany has just announced that they'll take some more, as have the US, Sweden, Australia, Argentina, and Portugal.
    Sweden? Are you sure? That's insanity. They're struggling badly enough to cope with the ones they already have.

    Governments overloading themselves, whether from a sense of guilt or to try to look good in the eyes of others, do nobody any favours - neither their own people, nor the incomers who will continue to suffer through neglect.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2016

    MP_SE said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/20/bbc-journalists-paid-up-to-40-per-cent-more-than-commercial-riva/
    "They found that among 1,125 BBC senior broadcast journalists, a rank that covers many junior reporters and producers, the median pay was £49,000, forty per cent more than the average of £35,000 earned by those in comparable roles in the private sector."

    What on earth are they all doing? Could issue P45s to 50% of those "senior" journalists and there would still be too many.
    Fundamentally, the Beeb is profligate because it has a guaranteed income stream extracted from the taxpayer, so it has little encouragement towards efficiency. It's also full of left-leaning metro types for whom all "cuts" are anathema, and careers in public service (e.g. all of theirs) are morally superior, and thus fully deserving of enhanced protection and rewards - relative to those in grubby, money-making little businesses.

    No commercial organisation can afford these inflated salaries, which is why they don't pay them. The Beeb also treats all of its services as sacred cows, and there's always a huge brouhaha whenever it is suggested that one is got rid of. A bit like people protesting against the closure of an old and superfluous district hospital, on the grounds of emotional attachment rather than real functional value.

    It doesn't have to be this way. For example, BBC4 only does what BBC2 was meant to do in the first place. It would not take much planning or imagination to merge them back together again, and this would also prioritise quality over quantity. The rolling news channel is entirely unnecessary, and closing it would save a fortune. Perfectly straightforward and sensible measures, but they're institutionally incapable of making them. Just shifting BBC3 from terrestrial to online nearly caused a collective nervous breakdown, for goodness sake.
    The BBC3 meltdown was the most ridiculous thing I have seen in a long time. A channel that only aired for a few hours a day and off the top of my head schedule was ~80% repeats (including repeats on the same day a few hours after the show aired). A youth tv channel aimed squarely at people who don't consume content via the traditional method being used to broadcast it....

    The reaction was as if the world was going to end.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    SeanT said:



    No. She and her government deliberately said all refugees are welcome. And We Can Cope.


    ""There can be no upper limit set on the intake of people who are fleeing persecution and need protection," Schmidt said. The majority of people arriving have been coming from war-torn nations like Syria and Iraq, according to human rights organizations."

    http://www.ibtimes.com/eu-migrant-crisis-2015-no-limit-number-refugees-germany-will-welcome-2075312

    No. Upper. Limit.

    Germany has just announced that they'll take some more, as have the US, Sweden, Australia, Argentina, and Portugal.
    Sweden? Are you sure? That's insanity. They're struggling badly enough to cope with the ones they already have.

    Governments overloading themselves, whether from a sense of guilt or to try to look good in the eyes of others, do nobody any favours - neither their own people, nor the incomers who will continue to suffer through neglect.
    Ideology over reality, is unfortunately the order of the day for most western politicians.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    SeanT said:



    No. She and her government deliberately said all refugees are welcome. And We Can Cope.


    ""There can be no upper limit set on the intake of people who are fleeing persecution and need protection," Schmidt said. The majority of people arriving have been coming from war-torn nations like Syria and Iraq, according to human rights organizations."

    http://www.ibtimes.com/eu-migrant-crisis-2015-no-limit-number-refugees-germany-will-welcome-2075312

    No. Upper. Limit.

    Germany has just announced that they'll take some more, as have the US, Sweden, Australia, Argentina, and Portugal.
    Sweden? Are you sure? That's insanity. They're struggling badly enough to cope with the ones they already have.

    Governments overloading themselves, whether from a sense of guilt or to try to look good in the eyes of others, do nobody any favours - neither their own people, nor the incomers who will continue to suffer through neglect.
    Nor their own re-election prospects as many of their voters shift to populists in response
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    Sean_F said:


    :

    :
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant analysis of the Trump phenomenon. With huge echoes of Brexit

    https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/trump-politics-and-option-pricing-or-why-trump-voters-are-not-idiots-1e364a4ed940#.w0mbxqipm

    And a new thread on same theme:

    https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/778289870456360961

    Also, relatedly, lots of the New Nastiness in politics is coming from the elite, and directed at the Trump/Leave proles.

    I didn't find that it told me anything I hadn't
    I think the mistake in his analysis is the suggestion that the elite don't believe they are the elite.

    I think they do. They believe that they are the smart ones, the right ones, the blessed ones. The parallels with ari

    This is the key bit of the article 'The elites have removed themselves physically. They cluster in certain towns (NYC, LA, Northern Virginia, Boston) and within those towns in certain neighborhoods. They dress differently. They eat differently. There is a culture of elitism.

    The best single measure of elitism I see is education, the type and amount. A Harvard professor of sociology is more similar (despite different politics) to a Wall Street trader, than either is to a truck driver in Appleton, Wisconsin, or a waitress in Selma, or a construction worker in Detroit....The elites by and large control things. They control the money. They control the rules on how you make it. They also control the social capital. They set/define what is acceptable, what is allowable, and what is frowned on. (In snazzy academic speak: The elites define what is valid cultural capital, and have defined it to further empower themselves)'
    But he further states that "Where do most of the press and elites get it wrong? They don’t believe that we live in a two-tiered system. They don’t believe, or know they are in, the top tier."

    I think they glory in it.
    Unless they work for Fox, in which case they exploit the resentment while staying in the elite
    Yes indeed. They are another facet of the same thing. Nonetheless, this is what I hear when our precious Optimates speak -

    '"Liberty, Equality, Fraternity."
    Liberty must be rationed among the few
    with the talent to use it.
    There's no such thing as equality.
    Most men are born with the gutter
    and are at home there.
    As for fraternity,
    a de Maynes is nobody's brother.
    We stand alone at the head of the table...
    and if ever our rights are challenged,
    this is our answer.'
    Pretty much sums it up
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?

    Because

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "A
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    There's been a billion studies since. The refugees have considerably lower educational skills than Germans. 29% - nearly one third - are educated only to primary school level. Barely literate.

    Germany has taken on an enormous burden.

    http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Publikationen/Kurzanalysen/kurzanalyse3_sozial-komponenten.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    Yes, loope.
    You're delusional. I give up.
    No, you're delusional. That's why your attempts to justify your gut feelings with facts keep failing. Unfortunately, the world is full of people happy to be led by their emotions rather than reason, and we'll all pay the price for it.
    lol. I've given you facts. Numbers. Stats. Links. You just blither on.

    The only failure is your failure to believe actual numbers, and your allied preference for post-truth anecdotage.


    Let's talk when you have some evidence.
    I believe the numbers. It's just that they don't say what you think they say.
    I'm quite pleased with my new word "Wishipedia" tho. Where twonks like you get their non-existent facts to support their comforting delusions.
    Is this some sort of weird projection? The only one of us who has referenced a Wikipedia page is you.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?

    Because

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "A
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    There's been a billion studies since. The refugees have considerably lower educational skills than Germans. 29% - nearly one third - are educated only to primary school level. Barely literate.

    Germany has taken on an enormous burden.

    http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Publikationen/Kurzanalysen/kurzanalyse3_sozial-komponenten.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    Yes, loope.
    You're delusional. I give up.
    No, you're delusional. That's why your attempts to justify your gut feelings with facts keep failing. Unfortunately, the world is full of people happy to be led by their emotions rather than reason, and we'll all pay the price for it.
    lol. I've given you facts. Numbers. Stats. Links. You just blither on.

    The only failure is your failure to believe actual numbers, and your allied preference for post-truth anecdotage.


    Let's talk when you have some evidence.
    I believe the numbers. It's just that they don't say what you think they say.
    I'm quite pleased with my new word "Wishipedia" tho. Where twonks like you get their non-existent facts to support their comforting delusions.
    Or Wikipleading as a verb? :)
  • Options

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?

    Because

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "A
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    There's been a billion studies since. The refugees have considerably lower educational skills than Germans. 29% - nearly one third - are educated only to primary school level. Barely literate.

    Germany has taken on an enormous burden.

    http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Publikationen/Kurzanalysen/kurzanalyse3_sozial-komponenten.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    Yes, lower than Germans. That's hardly surprising, is it, given the circumstances? But still very likely higher than average for Syria and thus with the potential to do well given decent conditions. History teaches us that those that flee conflict are frequently the best and brightest of their country. Look at, for example, Jews from Nazi Germany or Asians fleeing Idi Amin's regime. Or the Huguenots fleeing France, or those who fled to America from religious persecution in Europe.
    You're delusional. I give up.
    No, you're delusional. That's why your attempts to justify your gut feelings with facts keep failing. Unfortunately, the world is full of people happy to be led by their emotions rather than reason, and we'll all pay the price for it.
    Recently Merkel complained that of the 1m refugees only 54 had got jobs with large companies.
    I imagine that her complaint was probably directed at the large companies rather than the refugees. Can you quote her?
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    The BBC3 meltdown was the most ridiculous thing I have seen in a long time. A channel that only aired for a few hours a day and off the top of my head schedule was ~80% repeats (including repeats on the same day a few hours after the show aired). A youth tv channel aimed squarely at people who don't consume content via the traditional method being used to broadcast it....

    The reaction was as if the world was going to end.

    I seem to recall that the most popular programmes were repeats of American adult cartoons and C-grade Hollywood action films. It was also a convenient dumping ground for the semi-finals of the Eurovision song contest, and certain unpopular football matches (which could easily have been swept off to online/interactive as well.)

    Moving the original programming online, and repeating the occasional choice selection on BBC1 post-10:40pm, was sensible and did no harm to anybody. There's no excuse for not making further efficiencies.

    If, on the other hand, they want to churn out umpteen extra channels of disposable crap then they can just privatise and advertise. Nobody cares that ITV pumps out a load of repeats and shit that hardly anybody watches because it isn't paid for with a court-enforceable poll tax that needlessly overburdens the Magistrates' Courts, and disproportionately targets the poor.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?

    Because

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "A
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    There's been a billion studies since. The refugees have considerably lower educational skills than Germans. 29% - nearly one third - are educated only to primary school level. Barely literate.

    Germany has taken on an enormous burden.

    http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Publikationen/Kurzanalysen/kurzanalyse3_sozial-komponenten.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    Yes, lower than Germans. That's hardly surprising, is it, given the circumstances? But still very likely higher than average for Syria and thus with the potential to do well given decent conditions. History teaches us that those that flee conflict are frequently the best and brightest of their country. Look at, for example, Jews from Nazi Germany or Asians fleeing Idi Amin's regime. Or the Huguenots fleeing France, or those who fled to America from religious persecution in Europe.
    "very likely" - two words which effortlessly torpedo this argument as pure handwaving.
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    slade said:

    Cardiff result: LD 1258, Lab 910, PC 177, Con 115, Green 93, UKIP 62. LD gain from Labour.

    Where in Cardiff was that, Mr Slade? Seems strange having a local government byelection today.

    Though perhaps it bodes well for Lib Dem prospects in Witney.
  • Options

    She is always a local where ever she stands! A local in Hampshire in 2010 and a local in Brigg and Goole in 2015 etc etc.

    Given that she actually lives in the Witney constituency and is a district councillor here then I think you'd be hard pushed to say she isn't a local...

    Labour selection is interesting. Duncan Enright chosen and rightly so - a good campaigner and well respected locally. However, the NEC presented the CLP with a shortlist of one, containing only his name. Hustings had been arranged for Thursday and have now been called off. Hard to say that isn't a candidate being imposed, and given that Enright is very vocally anti-Corbyn I wonder what the Momentum Tendency will have to say about it.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    I'm sure you're right, and it pains me to see one of my political heroes ending up as the villain of the piece. She (and the Austrians) took one a one-off decision to allow people to come from Hungary to be processed in Germany and alongside that she tried to uphold treaty commitments on refugees that we're all signed up to. That this became seen as an open invitation was mainly the result of hugely irresponsible reporting.
    Oh, yeah. Blame the media. Sure, right.
    Just came from dinner with a senior German. Not a fan of Merkel's but said exactly the same thing - it wasn't intended as a open invitation
  • Options

    Labour's NEC fails to agree how shadow cabinet should be formed

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37416853

    Corbyn delays matter until the new NEC where he has more votes.

    Not now Scots and Welsh have seats. Projections are 19 to 16 for non-Corbyn supporters.

  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    50.7% of Bosnians are Muslims
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnia_and_Herzegovina#Ethnic_groups
    I think it was about 44% back in the 90s.
  • Options
    slade said:

    Cardiff result: LD 1258, Lab 910, PC 177, Con 115, Green 93, UKIP 62. LD gain from Labour.

    Cardiff - another big Corbyn rally followed by a big Labour defeat!

  • Options

    First like me in the PB fantasy football.

    And yes, I agree, you should see the abuse people like Mike, Britain Elects, and myself receive from the Corbynites when we tweet polling that's bad for Jez.

    JICIPM!
  • Options
    Ishmael_X said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?

    Because

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "A
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    There's been a billion studies since. The refugees have considerably lower educational skills than Germans. 29% - nearly one third - are educated only to primary school level. Barely literate.

    Germany has taken on an enormous burden.

    http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Publikationen/Kurzanalysen/kurzanalyse3_sozial-komponenten.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    Yes, lower than Germans. That's hardly surprising, is it, given the circumstances? But still very likely higher than average for Syria and thus with the potential to do well given decent conditions. History teaches us that those that flee conflict are frequently the best and brightest of their country. Look at, for example, Jews from Nazi Germany or Asians fleeing Idi Amin's regime. Or the Huguenots fleeing France, or those who fled to America from religious persecution in Europe.
    "very likely" - two words which effortlessly torpedo this argument as pure handwaving.
    Only mathematicians and preachers talk in certainties.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,319



    Sweden? Are you sure? That's insanity. They're struggling badly enough to cope with the ones they already have.

    Governments overloading themselves, whether from a sense of guilt or to try to look good in the eyes of others, do nobody any favours - neither their own people, nor the incomers who will continue to suffer through neglect.

    Yes. As in Germany, opinion is quite polarised, with a strong backlash (e.g. the AfD 14% in Berlin) and a strong anti-backlash backlash (people demanding that the "racists be seen off").
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?
    Because the mood re Muslims had already soured, for reasons you surely don'tneed me to rehearse, PLUS the vast majority of these new refugees were (despite the BBC's attempts to tell us otherwise) young men of fighting age, generally with low educational skills, perhaps concealing thousands of jihadis in their ranks.

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    Sarkozy is beginning to rise in the polls in France after promising to declare a 'merciless war' on Islamic terrorism and demanding that 'If you want to become French, you speak French, you live like the French. We will no longer settle for integration that does not work, we will require assimilation,' he said.
    'Once you become French, your ancestors are the Gauls. 'I love France, I learned the history of France, I see myself as French',' is what you must say.'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3798023/Nicolas-Sarkozy-demands-migrants-live-like-French.html

    Latest poll has Juppe on 35% and Sarko on 33% for LR nomination (the winner will probably face Le Pen in round 2)
    https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sondages_sur_la_primaire_présidentielle_des_Républicains_de_2016
    Yet..... This side. Of the channel you are called "little Englanders" for even daring to imagine the same thing.

    Go figure?
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    I'm sure you're right, and it pains me to see one of my political heroes ending up as the villain of the piece. She (and the Austrians) took one a one-off decision to allow people to come from Hungary to be processed in Germany and alongside that she tried to uphold treaty commitments on refugees that we're all signed up to. That this became seen as an open invitation was mainly the result of hugely irresponsible reporting.
    Oh, yeah. Blame the media. Sure, right.
    Just came from dinner with a senior German. Not a fan of Merkel's but said exactly the same thing - it wasn't intended as a open invitation
    It may not have been intended as an open invitation, but we are all grown ups and so is Merkel. How else was it going to be interpreted? Imbeciles.
  • Options

    Ishmael_X said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?

    Because

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    What makes you think they have low educational skills? Those that fled are more likely to be the educated middle classes and are probably brighter than average. After all, it takes some get-up-and-go to, erm, get up and go. They may be young men of fighting age, but they're also pre-educated young men of working age.
    Er, Wikipedia?

    "A
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flüchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_ab_2015
    Those are the refugees in the Turkish refugee camps just over the border, not the ones with the resourcefulness and wherewithal to make it to Germany.
    There's been a billion studies since. The refugees have considerably lower educational skills than Germans. 29% - nearly one third - are educated only to primary school level. Barely literate.

    Germany has taken on an enormous burden.

    http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Publikationen/Kurzanalysen/kurzanalyse3_sozial-komponenten.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    Yes, lower than Germans. That's hardly surprising, is it, given the circumstances? But still very likely higher than average for Syria and thus with the potential to do well given decent conditions. History teaches us that those that flee conflict are frequently the best and brightest of their country. Look at, for example, Jews from Nazi Germany or Asians fleeing Idi Amin's regime. Or the Huguenots fleeing France, or those who fled to America from religious persecution in Europe.
    "very likely" - two words which effortlessly torpedo this argument as pure handwaving.
    Only mathematicians and preachers talk in certainties.
    "Only a Sith deals in absolutes. I will do what I must!" - Obi-Wan Kenobi.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Sweden? Are you sure? That's insanity. They're struggling badly enough to cope with the ones they already have.

    Sweden, the mad old cat lady of refugees. Too many to be able to take care of each of them properly.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    Owen Smith is 26/1 with Betfair.
    1.3 million staked.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125575779
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    SeanT said:

    MTimT said:

    Sweden? Are you sure? That's insanity. They're struggling badly enough to cope with the ones they already have.

    Sweden, the mad old cat lady of refugees. Too many to be able to take care of each of them properly.
    Bravo. Very good. May steal.
    Have at it.

    I stopped there. Started getting very dark quickly, police being called in after she's not been seen for weeks to break down the front door ...
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    I'm sure you're right, and it pains me to see one of my political heroes ending up as the villain of the piece. She (and the Austrians) took one a one-off decision to allow people to come from Hungary to be processed in Germany and alongside that she tried to uphold treaty commitments on refugees that we're all signed up to. That this became seen as an open invitation was mainly the result of hugely irresponsible reporting.
    Oh, yeah. Blame the media. Sure, right.
    Just came from dinner with a senior German. Not a fan of Merkel's but said exactly the same thing - it wasn't intended as a open invitation
    It may not have been intended as an open invitation, but we are all grown ups and so is Merkel. How else was it going to be interpreted? Imbeciles.
    It was intended to be an emergency relief for Hungary and Slovakia (there were people dying in the train station at Budapest). But when 1m started coming they just opened their borders and waved them through to Germany - and then refused to take a share back.

    Apraently Germany washed their hands in a similar situation 10-15 years ago ??
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Moses_ said:

    Yet..... This side. Of the channel you are called "little Englanders" for even daring to imagine the same thing.

    Go figure?

    It wouldn't matter if the French elected Vlad the Impaler as President, the Guardian would still make out Theresa May to be worse.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    524,000 absentee ballots have been requested in Ohio this election.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear at quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    I'm sureresponsible reporting.
    Oh, yeah. Blame the media. Sure, right.
    Just came from dinner with a senior German. Not a fan of Merkel's but said exactly the same thing - it wasn't intended as a open invitation
    That's bollocks, Charles, sorry. They unilaterally suspended Dublin and said ALL Syrians are welcome


    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-opens-its-gates-berlin-says-all-syrian-asylum-seekers-are-welcome-to-remain-as-britain-is-10470062.html

    "Germany, which expects to take a staggering 800,000 migrants this year, became the first EU country to suspend a 1990 protocol which forces refugees to seek asylum in the first European country in which they set foot.

    The German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees ratified an order suspending the so-called Dublin Protocol. “Germany will become the member state responsible for processing their claims,” a government statement said.

    All current expulsion orders for Syrian asylum-seekers will be revoked, the government said. New Syrian arrivals will no longer be forced to fill in questionnaires to determine which country they had first arrived in."
    I've no idea whether it is true or not. Just reporting a comment by a well comnected German business leader.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Hungary happy for its own people to travel and settle across Europe but anti immigration into Hungary from the Middle East and beyond. Their Minister on Newsnight refuses to see the hypocrisy.

    I have an open mind but seriously I mean seriously do you really, really think these two positions are similar in any way?

    If you do well FFS... There is little hope for you.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited September 2016
    Moses_ said:

    Hungary happy for its own people to travel and settle across Europe but anti immigration into Hungary from the Middle East and beyond. Their Minister on Newsnight refuses to see the hypocrisy.

    I have an open mind but seriously I mean seriously do you really, really think these two positions are similar in any way?

    If you do well FFS... There is little hope for you.
    Why is a hopeless and jobless Hungarian living under a bridge in Tottenham any better for the UK than a hopeless and jobless Syrian living under a bridge in Tottenham?

    If Hungary is so pro its own people being able to live elsewhere for the betterment of themselves, it's hypocritical of Hungary to close itself off from inward migration.

    Just playing devil's advocate. As for me, I despise the free movement of people - economic, refugee, you name it - and thank god every day for the Channel.

    Night.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    SeanT said:

    MTimT said:

    Sweden? Are you sure? That's insanity. They're struggling badly enough to cope with the ones they already have.

    Sweden, the mad old cat lady of refugees. Too many to be able to take care of each of them properly.
    Relatedly, look at this. An incredible, semi-official ad lecturing Swedes about migration. "There's no way back, Sweden will never be what it once was"

    http://www.9news.com.au/world/2016/09/20/10/51/theres-no-way-back-swedes-told-to-accept-massive-wave-of-migrants#A8cii5dcLbKEyFwY.99
    Thanks, Sean. Depressing reading:

    "New Swedes will claim their space and bring their culture, language and customs"

    Not wrong that they bring them, but the implication that they should keep them in their entirety is so wrong and completely at odds with the statement at the end that "denied ... that the message asks Swedes to give up their "old" culture", as is the idea that there is no going back.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    Moses_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    There were already about 16 million Muslims in the EU before that. Why the particular worry about another 1.3 million, or the assumption that they'll all want to come to the UK?
    Because the mood re Muslims ha

    Basically the very last kind of immigrant you might want, for all the pity they deserve in their wretched fate.
    Sarkozy is beginning to rise in the polls in France after promising to declare a 'merciless war' on Islamic terrorism and demanding that 'If you want to become French, you speak French, you live like the French. We will no longer settle for integration that does not work, we will require assimilation,' he said.
    'Once you become French, your ancestors are the Gauls. 'I love France, I learned the history of France, I see myself as French',' is what you must say.'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3798023/Nicolas-Sarkozy-demands-migrants-live-like-French.html

    Latest poll has Juppe on 35% and Sarko on 33% for LR nomination (the winner will probably face Le Pen in round 2)
    https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sondages_sur_la_primaire_présidentielle_des_Républicains_de_2016
    Yet..... This side. Of the channel you are called "little Englanders" for even daring to imagine the same thing.

    Go figure?
    Well arguably 'Little Englanders' are now a majority of the country but anyway it does look like Sarkozy could now well be the only person standing between Le Pen and the Elysee. Goodnight
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    50% of Australians want to "ban Muslim immigration". Completely. That's further to the right than Trump.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/21/race-discrimination-commissioner-criticises-pauline-hanson-for-stoking-division?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something huge and serious is happening to western politics. Brexit is just part of it.

    My fear as a pro-European is that Brexit doesn't have much to do with it - people just took the best opportunity they had to kick the table over - and therefore the British establishment will completely fail to understand the message they have been given. If this happens we'll end up behind even the rest of Western Europe in responding to the changes around us, and will come to regret reaching for the apparent quick fix of leaving the EU.
    Your europhilia is just ludicrous. And its blinding you to the obvious.

    Merkel's invitation to 1.3m mainly Muslim refugees was hugely important in the Brexit victory. Many voters realised we had no control on them eventually coming to the UK. So that was one reason they voted OUT.

    The Paris atrocities likewise.
    50.7% of Bosnians are Muslims
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnia_and_Herzegovina#Ethnic_groups
    I think it was about 44% back in the 90s.
    Indeed but if you allow Bosnia and Albania into the EU which are now both majority Muslim and relatively poor, the argument against Turkey eventually joining too begins to fall apart
This discussion has been closed.