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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s local by-election woes continue

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s local by-election woes continue

LAB's local by-election woes
continue losing another seat to the LDs. https://t.co/emc3Bw5zHn

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,853
    edited September 2016
    First like jezza...time for a nice piece of shortbread.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited September 2016
    I like Nice biscuits. And Garibaldis.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,839
    Lib Dems winning here!
  • LibDems - Spinning Here!

    :)
  • Jeremy had a big rally in Cardiff, though; so really he won and that's all that matters.

    In the real world, important NEC news:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/09/how-jeremy-corbyns-nec-opponents-have-been-strengthened
  • I was impressed by the snippets I saw of Farron yesterday. Hadn't much rated him to date.

    There is (as per this site) still real passion and anger around Brexit, and he has a chance of voicing it.

    But, as good as their council wins seem to be, the LDs need to work on their media strategy.
  • Another bruising night in Wales, Jeremy’s ‘long journey back’ may take longer than planned.
  • http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37422696

    Voting has closed in Labour's leadership contest after Jeremy Corbyn and Owen Smith made their final pitches for support.

    A total of 640,000 people were eligible to vote, an increase of more than 80,000 from the 2015 contest.

    The result will be announced in Liverpool on Saturday.

    Mr Smith thanked his team and said he had "enjoyed every moment", while Mr Corbyn told supporters: "Together we are very, very strong."

    The electorate was made up of 343,500 full members, 168,000 union affiliated supporters and 129,000 registered supporters, who paid £25 each to vote.

    Each category has increased in size since last summer's leadership contest, which Mr Corbyn won on a landslide.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 22,057
    The Pointing At Pot-holes Party hoovering up the Greens? You'd think most Greens would be quite happy to see cars disappearing into the tarmac...

  • There is (as per this site) still real passion and anger around Brexit
    .

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37428764

    Brexit has had 'no major effect' on economy so far

    There has been little impact of the Brexit vote on the UK economy so far, says the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

  • Yebbut he won that parish council in Thanet.

    That's not in your bar chart
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938


    There is (as per this site) still real passion and anger around Brexit
    .

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37428764

    Brexit has had 'no major effect' on economy so far

    There has been little impact of the Brexit vote on the UK economy so far, says the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

    And this despite the actual chance of 'hard brexit' being more likely than it might have been before the vote or immediately after it, due to the opinions now forming in the Westminster bubble over immigration.

    It's almost as if the country isn't listening to the politicians any more and is just carrying on regardless. Who'd have guessed it....?
  • The LDs need to come up with something better than a 30-40 year cycle of gradual local/parliamentary by-election success building them into a position where they have a negotiating position in a hung parliament, before going back to square one a few years later due to picking a side.

    But I'm mystified as to what it should be. Advocating liberalism would be a start.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,210
    The feedback I get on the doorsteps is that the Lib Dems have been over-punished locally for the sins of the national party. Where the local parties haven't been hollowed out (the other side of the coin is how many by-elections the Lib Dems don't manage to put a candidate up) many of the activists have been working for several years and built up a local credibility that's now being listened to.

    I don't yet see any evidence that credibility is returning nationally, although the media /opposition sneering about the 'irrelevant' Lib Dems seems to be backfiring on those saying this, on anecdote only. So no great surprise that the national polls are showing a very different picture.

    If this is right and you want to see where the Lib Dem parliamentary progress will come from, look carefully at council gains - not just by-elections but see where the Lib Dems take control / become largest party in councils, as a sure sign that these are rich areas, rather than just looking at seats lost last time.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,091
    edited September 2016
    Tomorrow's by-elections. One Labour defence in Gateshead:

    Allerdale: Christchurch.
    Carmarthenshire: Cilycwn.
    Cherwell: Adderbury, Bloxham & Bodicote.
    Gateshead: Chopwell & Rolands Gill.
    North Lanarkshire: Coatbridge North & Glenboig.
    North Warwickshire: Arley & Whitacre.
    South Northamptonshire: Old Stratford.
    Suffolk: Hadleigh.
    Teignbridge: Teignmouth Central.

    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/8614/elections-september-20th-22th

    The North Warwickshire ward is in the Nuneaton constituency.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,831
    HILLARY CLINTON to Steve Harvey:

    "Maybe I can, by speaking directly to white people, say, 'Look, this is not who we are.' We have to do everything possible to improve policing, to go right at implicit bias. There are good, honorable, cool-headed police officers. We've seen them in action in New York in the last, you know, 48 hours because of the terrorist attacks. We can do better. We have got to rein in what is absolutely inexplicable and we have got to have law enforcement respect communities and communities respect law enforcement because they have to work together."

    I get what Hillary is trying to say, and it is a good and important message. But.

    ""Maybe I can, by speaking directly to white people, say, 'Look, this is not who we are.' "

    She has already told 23% of the US electorate, which is probably close to 35% of white people precisely who they are, explicitly this IS who you are, deplorables.

    There is currently no person in the US who is worse placed than Hillary to tell white people "This is not who we are"
  • The Brexit bounce:

    Nor has George Osborne’s suggestion of an 18 per cent house price crash materialized. At the time, Osborne’s allies said he was not exaggerating and that the economic advice he received was far more pessimistic than he let on. If true, this raises serious questions about the quality of economic advice being issued at the Treasury.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/brexit-bounce-continues/
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    But I'm mystified as to what it should be. Advocating liberalism would be a start.

    Supporting democracy would be another... why bother with what the people want when the sanctimonious right-on wing of the upper middle classes know better ?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,192
    edited September 2016
    tpfkar said:

    The feedback I get on the doorsteps is that the Lib Dems have been over-punished locally for the sins of the national party. Where the local parties haven't been hollowed out (the other side of the coin is how many by-elections the Lib Dems don't manage to put a candidate up) many of the activists have been working for several years and built up a local credibility that's now being listened to.

    I don't yet see any evidence that credibility is returning nationally, although the media /opposition sneering about the 'irrelevant' Lib Dems seems to be backfiring on those saying this, on anecdote only. So no great surprise that the national polls are showing a very different picture.

    If this is right and you want to see where the Lib Dem parliamentary progress will come from, look carefully at council gains - not just by-elections but see where the Lib Dems take control / become largest party in councils, as a sure sign that these are rich areas, rather than just looking at seats lost last time.

    The LDs suffered twice over at the last election.
    The left were able to pillory them as Tory collaborators and the Conservative strategy to focus on the risk of a SNP/Miliband government meant that the soft right and centrists were scared against voting for them.

    But actually, I think a lot of people will look back at the coalition government as an era of stability, moderation and growth. The LDs should publicly regret the sacrifice of their totemic tuition fee policy, but take pride in their achievements in government.

    There's a market for sanity right now, though it needs a few eye catching policies of its own and, as I say, a narrative to counter the general media chortling at LD irrelevance.
  • MTimT said:

    HILLARY CLINTON to Steve Harvey:

    "Maybe I can, by speaking directly to white people, say, 'Look, this is not who we are.' We have to do everything possible to improve policing, to go right at implicit bias. There are good, honorable, cool-headed police officers. We've seen them in action in New York in the last, you know, 48 hours because of the terrorist attacks. We can do better. We have got to rein in what is absolutely inexplicable and we have got to have law enforcement respect communities and communities respect law enforcement because they have to work together."

    I get what Hillary is trying to say, and it is a good and important message. But.

    ""Maybe I can, by speaking directly to white people, say, 'Look, this is not who we are.' "

    She has already told 23% of the US electorate, which is probably close to 35% of white people precisely who they are, explicitly this IS who you are, deplorables.

    There is currently no person in the US who is worse placed than Hillary to tell white people "This is not who we are"

    The risk for Clinton is that people get to a point where they no longer care what Trump says but think Washington DC is so ossified that his victory is necessary to shake it up.

    They won't expect much, in fact they might fear him, but would implicitly discount any opportunity for real progress until 2020 on the hope American politics would have got the message and changed by then.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,003
    LDs seem to be offering some sort of Gordon Brown in a yellow kaftan vision of the country.

    Sounds like a sure fire winner.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,831

    The Brexit bounce:

    Nor has George Osborne’s suggestion of an 18 per cent house price crash materialized. At the time, Osborne’s allies said he was not exaggerating and that the economic advice he received was far more pessimistic than he let on. If true, this raises serious questions about the quality of economic advice being issued at the Treasury.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/brexit-bounce-continues/

    Loved the last line:

    "a healthy and sceptical Britain ... knows experts are capable of all being wrong"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,853

    tpfkar said:

    The feedback I get on the doorsteps is that the Lib Dems have been over-punished locally for the sins of the national party. Where the local parties haven't been hollowed out (the other side of the coin is how many by-elections the Lib Dems don't manage to put a candidate up) many of the activists have been working for several years and built up a local credibility that's now being listened to.

    I don't yet see any evidence that credibility is returning nationally, although the media /opposition sneering about the 'irrelevant' Lib Dems seems to be backfiring on those saying this, on anecdote only. So no great surprise that the national polls are showing a very different picture.

    If this is right and you want to see where the Lib Dem parliamentary progress will come from, look carefully at council gains - not just by-elections but see where the Lib Dems take control / become largest party in councils, as a sure sign that these are rich areas, rather than just looking at seats lost last time.

    The LDs suffered twice over at the last election.
    The left were able to pillory them as Tory collaborators and the Conservative strategy to focus on the risk of a SNP/Miliband government meant that the soft right and centrists were scared against voting for them.

    But actually, I think a lot of people will look back at the coalition government as an era of stability, moderation of growth. The LDs should publicly regret the sacrifice of their totemic tuition fee policy, but take pride in their achievements in government.

    There's a market for sanity right now, though it needs a few eye catching policies of its own and, as I say, a narrative to counter the general media chortling at LD irrelevance.
    The Lib Dem campaign in 2015 was to run away from the coalition record which allowed the Tories to claim credit for everything, including Lib Dem policies such as raising the threshold and a pledge to take people earning the minimum wage out of income tax.

    That was a huge error, one that mystified a lot of PB Tories. Including this one. Afterwards it transpired that it was Paddy Ashdown convince Clegg to run the campaign that they were the internal opposition to the Tories. Idiot man.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    There's a market for sanity right now, though it needs a few eye catching policies of its own and, as I say, a narrative to counter the general media chortling at LD irrelevance.

    Farron isn't the man to front that party. The leftie vote is in love with the newly radical Labour party at the moment, the LD route to victory goes through the living rooms of Yellow Tories, people who voted for Clegg and then rowed in behind Cameron but are starting to feel alarmed about what May is starting to do.


  • There is (as per this site) still real passion and anger around Brexit
    .

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37428764

    Brexit has had 'no major effect' on economy so far

    There has been little impact of the Brexit vote on the UK economy so far, says the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

    The pound is down, but we're still in the EU and no decisions have been made yet.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,853
    MTimT said:

    HILLARY CLINTON to Steve Harvey:

    "Maybe I can, by speaking directly to white people, say, 'Look, this is not who we are.' We have to do everything possible to improve policing, to go right at implicit bias. There are good, honorable, cool-headed police officers. We've seen them in action in New York in the last, you know, 48 hours because of the terrorist attacks. We can do better. We have got to rein in what is absolutely inexplicable and we have got to have law enforcement respect communities and communities respect law enforcement because they have to work together."

    I get what Hillary is trying to say, and it is a good and important message. But.

    ""Maybe I can, by speaking directly to white people, say, 'Look, this is not who we are.' "

    She has already told 23% of the US electorate, which is probably close to 35% of white people precisely who they are, explicitly this IS who you are, deplorables.

    There is currently no person in the US who is worse placed than Hillary to tell white people "This is not who we are"

    The "deplorables" speech was a massive error, it's the one that might lose her the election.
  • Indigo said:

    But I'm mystified as to what it should be. Advocating liberalism would be a start.

    Supporting democracy would be another... why bother with what the people want when the sanctimonious right-on wing of the upper middle classes know better ?
    "Europe" is something of an article of faith to a large segment of Lib Dem activists and voters, dating back to SDP/Alliance days, and Farron sniffs an opportunity to tactically position himself and his party on it.

    But, he needs to be careful. Soon the EU will be yesterday's news and the question will then arise again as to what the Lib Dems are for.

    A smart Lib Dem leader would be positioning himself/herself for the realities of the changed UK geopolitical landscape to come, which is likely to be rather different in the decades to come.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    AndyJS said:

    The election depends on Pennsylvania according to 538's latest forecast. Trump is predicted to pick up Florida, Ohio and Iowa:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    Iff it is Pennsylvania then Trump won't get it** - the polls have stubbornly remained pro-Clinton. Assuming Trump picks up Nevada and North Carolina (not gimmees by any stretch of the book but more favourable polling) then he needs one of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin where there has been more movement. (Barring e.g. Maine/ New Hampshire/ New Mexico/ Rhode Island or similar remote but non-zero possibilities)

    Basically he has a very narrow route to 270 and some of the states are very rickety bridges. We'll have some idea this time next week when polls start reflecting the 1st debate (although there will be a time-lag). For instance the polls are dropping back for Trump as the Clinton Collapse fades into the background. His hope is that they will plateau at a substantially higher level than pre September 11th. But Romney was ahead of Obama post 1st debate, wasn't he?

    * Barring 'Shy Trumpers' or a failed polling methodology** - if there are any.

    ** Missing people from the polls who decide to vote Republican
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HYUFD said:

    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed

    How were UKIP a gainer last night ? they got just 63 bigots to vote for them in Cardiff . I expect at least 1 gain from the Conservatives tomorrow possibly two , we shall see .
    It is true that the national polls do not show the same picture . However the raw poll data does show some improvement which goes after weighting and other adjustments . The last Ipsos Mori poll for example had raw data with 10% Lib Dems and 6% UKIP voters . After weightings the published figures were 6% Lib Dem and 9% UKIP .

    .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    Indigo said:

    There's a market for sanity right now, though it needs a few eye catching policies of its own and, as I say, a narrative to counter the general media chortling at LD irrelevance.

    Farron isn't the man to front that party. The leftie vote is in love with the newly radical Labour party at the moment, the LD route to victory goes through the living rooms of Yellow Tories, people who voted for Clegg and then rowed in behind Cameron but are starting to feel alarmed about what May is starting to do.

    Apart from a few Cameroon Remainer MPs most moderate Tory voters are happy with May, moderate social democratic Labour voters who backed Ed Miliband but are wary of Corbyn are who Farron is aiming at
  • HYUFD said:

    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed

    UKIP gained 2.4% to ... 2.4% and came bottom.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    The Brexit bounce:

    Nor has George Osborne’s suggestion of an 18 per cent house price crash materialized. At the time, Osborne’s allies said he was not exaggerating and that the economic advice he received was far more pessimistic than he let on. If true, this raises serious questions about the quality of economic advice being issued at the Treasury.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/brexit-bounce-continues/

    To a Foreigner, house prices in London HAVE crashed (become more affordable) about 10% due to Sterling Devaluation.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,831

    MTimT said:

    HILLARY CLINTON to Steve Harvey:

    "Maybe I can, by speaking directly to white people, say, 'Look, this is not who we are.' We have to do everything possible to improve policing, to go right at implicit bias. There are good, honorable, cool-headed police officers. We've seen them in action in New York in the last, you know, 48 hours because of the terrorist attacks. We can do better. We have got to rein in what is absolutely inexplicable and we have got to have law enforcement respect communities and communities respect law enforcement because they have to work together."

    I get what Hillary is trying to say, and it is a good and important message. But.

    ""Maybe I can, by speaking directly to white people, say, 'Look, this is not who we are.' "

    She has already told 23% of the US electorate, which is probably close to 35% of white people precisely who they are, explicitly this IS who you are, deplorables.

    There is currently no person in the US who is worse placed than Hillary to tell white people "This is not who we are"

    The risk for Clinton is that people get to a point where they no longer care what Trump says but think Washington DC is so ossified that his victory is necessary to shake it up.

    They won't expect much, in fact they might fear him, but would implicitly discount any opportunity for real progress until 2020 on the hope American politics would have got the message and changed by then.
    Indeed, the people who need to hear what Hillary was trying to say are not going to hear anything past "Maybe I can, by speaking directly to white people, say "Look, this is not who we are." They will be in a blind rage at those words and hear nothing further of that paragraph.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966


    There is (as per this site) still real passion and anger around Brexit
    .

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37428764

    Brexit has had 'no major effect' on economy so far

    There has been little impact of the Brexit vote on the UK economy so far, says the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

    The pound is down, but we're still in the EU and no decisions have been made yet.
    Christ on a bike we seem to go around this loop for half an hour every damn night! Osborne had a punishment budget lined up for immediate after the vote, not after A50, or after 2 years, but after the vote because he was so "concerned" about the damage that would be done to the economy. The government press releases and bullshit documentation told us that the economy would go to hell in a handbasket after the vote, not after A50, or after 2 years, but after the vote.

    This fanciful discussion acts as if the markets didn't have clever people working for them and looking at the future and pricing in their predictions. No one except a small group of Meeks now doubt that we will leave the EU, and yet the markets are powering ahead, most people think there will be a fairly hard or very hard BrExit, and quite likely initially WTO conditions, and yet the markets are powering ahead.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 999

    Indigo said:

    But I'm mystified as to what it should be. Advocating liberalism would be a start.

    Supporting democracy would be another... why bother with what the people want when the sanctimonious right-on wing of the upper middle classes know better ?
    "Europe" is something of an article of faith to a large segment of Lib Dem activists and voters, dating back to SDP/Alliance days, and Farron sniffs an opportunity to tactically position himself and his party on it.

    But, he needs to be careful. Soon the EU will be yesterday's news and the question will then arise again as to what the Lib Dems are for.

    A smart Lib Dem leader would be positioning himself/herself for the realities of the changed UK geopolitical landscape to come, which is likely to be rather different in the decades to come.
    Do you remember the days about ten years ago when the Lib Dems promised a referendum on membership of the EU? And indeed staged a bizarre walkout of the commons in the debate over whether to have a referendum on the Lisbon treaty because what they ostensibly wanted was a referendum on membership of the EU? One of their odder episodes, especially given the way they have behaved since the referendum they ostensibly wanted happened.
  • The Lib Dems have had some fantastic local by-election results, and in areas all around UK, so why are national opinion polls still showing them stagnant around 7%?
  • MTimT said:

    The Brexit bounce:

    Nor has George Osborne’s suggestion of an 18 per cent house price crash materialized. At the time, Osborne’s allies said he was not exaggerating and that the economic advice he received was far more pessimistic than he let on. If true, this raises serious questions about the quality of economic advice being issued at the Treasury.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/brexit-bounce-continues/

    Loved the last line:

    "a healthy and sceptical Britain ... knows experts are capable of all being wrong"
    The other good point:

    The theory was that consumer confidence would collapse, as Britain would panic about Brexit......Brexit would only happen if a majority voted for it, and if they did then why would they go on to suffer a crisis of confidence if they got what they wanted?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2016
    Spiderman said:

    The Lib Dems have had some fantastic local by-election results, and in areas all around UK, so why are national opinion polls still showing them stagnant around 7%?

    It’s one thing to vote for a local protest party, quite another to vote them into government.
  • Cookie said:

    Indigo said:

    But I'm mystified as to what it should be. Advocating liberalism would be a start.

    Supporting democracy would be another... why bother with what the people want when the sanctimonious right-on wing of the upper middle classes know better ?
    "Europe" is something of an article of faith to a large segment of Lib Dem activists and voters, dating back to SDP/Alliance days, and Farron sniffs an opportunity to tactically position himself and his party on it.

    But, he needs to be careful. Soon the EU will be yesterday's news and the question will then arise again as to what the Lib Dems are for.

    A smart Lib Dem leader would be positioning himself/herself for the realities of the changed UK geopolitical landscape to come, which is likely to be rather different in the decades to come.
    Do you remember the days about ten years ago when the Lib Dems promised a referendum on membership of the EU? And indeed staged a bizarre walkout of the commons in the debate over whether to have a referendum on the Lisbon treaty because what they ostensibly wanted was a referendum on membership of the EU? One of their odder episodes, especially given the way they have behaved since the referendum they ostensibly wanted happened.
    Ironically, the Lib Dems wanted that referendum on EU membership for similar reasons to David Cameron: to put the issue to bed for a generation.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,965



    But, he needs to be careful. Soon the EU will be yesterday's news and the question will then arise again as to what the Lib Dems are for.

    There's no point rerunning the referendum. We will be out. However the EU will still be there as the dominant force in Europe and we will lack a proper relationship with it. Dealing with it from the outside will be more complicated and therefore interesting to a certain kind of politician. There's an opportunity for the Lib Dems as a genuinely internationalist party when the others probably wish the EU etc would just go away.

    Not a majority interest to be sure, but it could be worth 20% of the electorate.

  • HYUFD said:

    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed

    How were UKIP a gainer last night ? they got just 63 bigots to vote for them in Cardiff . I expect at least 1 gain from the Conservatives tomorrow possibly two , we shall see .
    It is true that the national polls do not show the same picture . However the raw poll data does show some improvement which goes after weighting and other adjustments . The last Ipsos Mori poll for example had raw data with 10% Lib Dems and 6% UKIP voters . After weightings the published figures were 6% Lib Dem and 9% UKIP .

    .
    I don't think it's in order for you to assert that all UKIP voters are bigots.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    AndyJS said:

    Tomorrow's by-elections. One Labour defence in Gateshead:

    Allerdale: Christchurch.
    Carmarthenshire: Cilycwn.
    Cherwell: Adderbury, Bloxham & Bodicote.
    Gateshead: Chopwell & Rolands Gill.
    North Lanarkshire: Coatbridge North & Glenboig.
    North Warwickshire: Arley & Whitacre.
    South Northamptonshire: Old Stratford.
    Suffolk: Hadleigh.
    Teignbridge: Teignmouth Central.

    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/8614/elections-september-20th-22th

    The North Warwickshire ward is in the Nuneaton constituency.

    People in Rowlands Gill don't appreciate being linked to Gateshead (although true). And, according to Wikipedia, would not be popular with many here as it is a 'dry' village.

    (Declaration of Interest: I lived there for 4 years from the age of 0)
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,210

    tpfkar said:

    The feedback I get on the doorsteps is that the Lib Dems have been over-punished locally for the sins of the national party. Where the local parties haven't been hollowed out (the other side of the coin is how many by-elections the Lib Dems don't manage to put a candidate up) many of the activists have been working for several years and built up a local credibility that's now being listened to.

    I don't yet see any evidence that credibility is returning nationally, although the media /opposition sneering about the 'irrelevant' Lib Dems seems to be backfiring on those saying this, on anecdote only. So no great surprise that the national polls are showing a very different picture.

    If this is right and you want to see where the Lib Dem parliamentary progress will come from, look carefully at council gains - not just by-elections but see where the Lib Dems take control / become largest party in councils, as a sure sign that these are rich areas, rather than just looking at seats lost last time.

    The LDs suffered twice over at the last election.
    The left were able to pillory them as Tory collaborators and the Conservative strategy to focus on the risk of a SNP/Miliband government meant that the soft right and centrists were scared against voting for them.

    But actually, I think a lot of people will look back at the coalition government as an era of stability, moderation and growth. The LDs should publicly regret the sacrifice of their totemic tuition fee policy, but take pride in their achievements in government.

    There's a market for sanity right now, though it needs a few eye catching policies of its own and, as I say, a narrative to counter the general media chortling at LD irrelevance.
    I'd agree with all of that. It's why I'm dubious about this 'not quite a pledge' to increase taxes for the NHS and Social Care - it wins on sanity but it's eye-catching for the wrong reasons. However useful it is to say the unsayable so the other parties can then adopt it, it gets noticed and abused by opponents too easily.
  • Indigo said:


    There is (as per this site) still real passion and anger around Brexit
    .

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37428764

    Brexit has had 'no major effect' on economy so far

    There has been little impact of the Brexit vote on the UK economy so far, says the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

    The pound is down, but we're still in the EU and no decisions have been made yet.
    Christ on a bike we seem to go around this loop for half an hour every damn night! Osborne had a punishment budget lined up for immediate after the vote, not after A50, or after 2 years, but after the vote because he was so "concerned" about the damage that would be done to the economy. The government press releases and bullshit documentation told us that the economy would go to hell in a handbasket after the vote, not after A50, or after 2 years, but after the vote.

    This fanciful discussion acts as if the markets didn't have clever people working for them and looking at the future and pricing in their predictions. No one except a small group of Meeks now doubt that we will leave the EU, and yet the markets are powering ahead, most people think there will be a fairly hard or very hard BrExit, and quite likely initially WTO conditions, and yet the markets are powering ahead.
    The pound is down, but we're still in the EU and no decisions have been made yet.
    Do you disagree? I would have thought that it was a statement of fact and nothing to do with a bicycling Jesus.
    Osborne was wrong.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    HYUFD said:

    Indigo said:

    There's a market for sanity right now, though it needs a few eye catching policies of its own and, as I say, a narrative to counter the general media chortling at LD irrelevance.

    Farron isn't the man to front that party. The leftie vote is in love with the newly radical Labour party at the moment, the LD route to victory goes through the living rooms of Yellow Tories, people who voted for Clegg and then rowed in behind Cameron but are starting to feel alarmed about what May is starting to do.

    Apart from a few Cameroon Remainer MPs most moderate Tory voters are happy with May, moderate social democratic Labour voters who backed Ed Miliband but are wary of Corbyn are who Farron is aiming at
    How many of those are there. The WWC are never going to vote for him, they don't like sandals, the champagne socialists and other metro lefties are in love with Corbyn and the socially liberal financially sensible centrists will probably be quite happy with May. Intersect that modest group with rampant europhilia, which is almost absent outside the chattering classes, and who does he have left ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,853

    Cookie said:

    Indigo said:

    But I'm mystified as to what it should be. Advocating liberalism would be a start.

    Supporting democracy would be another... why bother with what the people want when the sanctimonious right-on wing of the upper middle classes know better ?
    "Europe" is something of an article of faith to a large segment of Lib Dem activists and voters, dating back to SDP/Alliance days, and Farron sniffs an opportunity to tactically position himself and his party on it.

    But, he needs to be careful. Soon the EU will be yesterday's news and the question will then arise again as to what the Lib Dems are for.

    A smart Lib Dem leader would be positioning himself/herself for the realities of the changed UK geopolitical landscape to come, which is likely to be rather different in the decades to come.
    Do you remember the days about ten years ago when the Lib Dems promised a referendum on membership of the EU? And indeed staged a bizarre walkout of the commons in the debate over whether to have a referendum on the Lisbon treaty because what they ostensibly wanted was a referendum on membership of the EU? One of their odder episodes, especially given the way they have behaved since the referendum they ostensibly wanted happened.
    Ironically, the Lib Dems wanted that referendum on EU membership for similar reasons to David Cameron: to put the issue to bed for a generation.
    Ironically, a straight in/out referendum might have been won by In. It was the EU refusal to give Dave a proper hearing which tipped a lot of people into the leave camp, they formed a big part of Leave's coalition of deplorable winners.
  • HYUFD said:

    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed

    How were UKIP a gainer last night ? they got just 63 bigots to vote for them in Cardiff . I expect at least 1 gain from the Conservatives tomorrow possibly two , we shall see .
    It is true that the national polls do not show the same picture . However the raw poll data does show some improvement which goes after weighting and other adjustments . The last Ipsos Mori poll for example had raw data with 10% Lib Dems and 6% UKIP voters . After weightings the published figures were 6% Lib Dem and 9% UKIP .

    .
    I don't think it's in order for you to assert that all UKIP voters are bigots.
    What percentage would you estimate?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,761
    edited September 2016
    MaxPB said:

    The Lib Dem campaign in 2015 was to run away from the coalition record which allowed the Tories to claim credit for everything, including Lib Dem policies such as raising the threshold and a pledge to take people earning the minimum wage out of income tax.

    That was a huge error, one that mystified a lot of PB Tories. Including this one. Afterwards it transpired that it was Paddy Ashdown convince Clegg to run the campaign that they were the internal opposition to the Tories. Idiot man.

    And they are still confused about what strategy they are trying to follow. There was a superb example in this piece by Nick Clegg:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-stop-shortchanging-the-poor-young-and-indulging-the-rich-old-a3348491.html

    He's simultaneously trying to claim that the Triple Lock was an egregious piece of cynical Tory vote-chasing and that it was a wonderful LibDem policy of which the party can be proud.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed

    How were UKIP a gainer last night ? they got just 63 bigots to vote for them in Cardiff . I expect at least 1 gain from the Conservatives tomorrow possibly two , we shall see .
    It is true that the national polls do not show the same picture . However the raw poll data does show some improvement which goes after weighting and other adjustments . The last Ipsos Mori poll for example had raw data with 10% Lib Dems and 6% UKIP voters . After weightings the published figures were 6% Lib Dem and 9% UKIP .

    .
    I don't think it's in order for you to assert that all UKIP voters are bigots.
    Quite correct , I was wrong . There were only 62 of them .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    edited September 2016
    Indigo said:


    There is (as per this site) still real passion and anger around Brexit
    .

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37428764

    Brexit has had 'no major effect' on economy so far

    There has been little impact of the Brexit vote on the UK economy so far, says the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

    The pound is down, but we're still in the EU and no decisions have been made yet.
    Christ on a bike we seem to go around this loop for half an hour every damn night! Osborne had a punishment budget lined up for immediate after the vote, not after A50, or after 2 years, but after the vote because he was so "concerned" about the damage that would be done to the economy. The government press releases and bullshit documentation told us that the economy would go to hell in a handbasket after the vote, not after A50, or after 2 years, but after the vote.

    This fanciful discussion acts as if the markets didn't have clever people working for them and looking at the future and pricing in their predictions. No one except a small group of Meeks now doubt that we will leave the EU, and yet the markets are powering ahead, most people think there will be a fairly hard or very hard BrExit, and quite likely initially WTO conditions, and yet the markets are powering ahead.
    The markets are ahead because interest rates are lower still and because, around the world, authorities either are (or have announced that they are prepared to go) pumping huge amounts of imaginary money into propping everything up.

    None of this has any bearing on whether Brexit will bring disaster, or not. But then Sunil knew that very well; he just chose to cut off the ONS comment half way through.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,091
    edited September 2016
    weejonnie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tomorrow's by-elections. One Labour defence in Gateshead:

    Allerdale: Christchurch.
    Carmarthenshire: Cilycwn.
    Cherwell: Adderbury, Bloxham & Bodicote.
    Gateshead: Chopwell & Rolands Gill.
    North Lanarkshire: Coatbridge North & Glenboig.
    North Warwickshire: Arley & Whitacre.
    South Northamptonshire: Old Stratford.
    Suffolk: Hadleigh.
    Teignbridge: Teignmouth Central.

    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/8614/elections-september-20th-22th

    The North Warwickshire ward is in the Nuneaton constituency.

    People in Rowlands Gill don't appreciate being linked to Gateshead (although true). And, according to Wikipedia, would not be popular with many here as it is a 'dry' village.

    (Declaration of Interest: I lived there for 4 years from the age of 0)
    I assume the Italian restaurant there isn't dry!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rowlands_Gill
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Spiderman said:

    The Lib Dems have had some fantastic local by-election results, and in areas all around UK, so why are national opinion polls still showing them stagnant around 7%?

    It’s one thing to vote for a local protest party, quite another to vote them into government.
    My parents were true blue Tories, always ticked the blue box in national elections, but quietly ticked the red box for local elections because the local Labour councillors were better at getting the bins emptied and the streets cleaned...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,853

    MaxPB said:

    The Lib Dem campaign in 2015 was to run away from the coalition record which allowed the Tories to claim credit for everything, including Lib Dem policies such as raising the threshold and a pledge to take people earning the minimum wage out of income tax.

    That was a huge error, one that mystified a lot of PB Tories. Including this one. Afterwards it transpired that it was Paddy Ashdown convince Clegg to run the campaign that they were the internal opposition to the Tories. Idiot man.

    And they are still at it. There was a superb example in this piece by Nick Clegg:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-stop-shortchanging-the-poor-young-and-indulging-the-rich-old-a3348491.html

    He's simultaneously trying to claim that the Triple Lock was an egregious piece of cynical Tory vote-chasing and that it was a wonderful LibDem policy of which the party can be proud.
    Madness.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,831
    weejonnie said:

    AndyJS said:

    The election depends on Pennsylvania according to 538's latest forecast. Trump is predicted to pick up Florida, Ohio and Iowa:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    Iff it is Pennsylvania then Trump won't get it** - the polls have stubbornly remained pro-Clinton. Assuming Trump picks up Nevada and North Carolina (not gimmees by any stretch of the book but more favourable polling) then he needs one of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin where there has been more movement. (Barring e.g. Maine/ New Hampshire/ New Mexico/ Rhode Island or similar remote but non-zero possibilities)

    Basically he has a very narrow route to 270 and some of the states are very rickety bridges. We'll have some idea this time next week when polls start reflecting the 1st debate (although there will be a time-lag). For instance the polls are dropping back for Trump as the Clinton Collapse fades into the background. His hope is that they will plateau at a substantially higher level than pre September 11th. But Romney was ahead of Obama post 1st debate, wasn't he?

    * Barring 'Shy Trumpers' or a failed polling methodology** - if there are any.

    ** Missing people from the polls who decide to vote Republican
    If Nate is right, the thing we have to look out for on the night is turnout in Philly. At 1,553,000, it is 5 times larger than the next biggest city (Pittsburgh) and 13 times larger than the 3rd largest city, Allentown. If turnout is low there, it is very bad news for Hillary.

    How much does the rest of Pennsylvania hate Philly? Many of the most restrictive laws passed in Harrisburg (capital, population 50,000) apply only to cities in PA with a population of more than 1 million, i.e. only apply to Philly.

    Bet Trump wishes the course of the Delaware would shift a mile or so so that Philly falls into New Jersey.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed

    How were UKIP a gainer last night ? they got just 63 bigots to vote for them in Cardiff . I expect at least 1 gain from the Conservatives tomorrow possibly two , we shall see .
    It is true that the national polls do not show the same picture . However the raw poll data does show some improvement which goes after weighting and other adjustments . The last Ipsos Mori poll for example had raw data with 10% Lib Dems and 6% UKIP voters . After weightings the published figures were 6% Lib Dem and 9% UKIP .

    .
    UKIP were the only other party than the LDs to increase their percentage of the votes last night and virtually every other pollster than Mori has them at least holding their general election score and ahead of the LDs and of course this was the first by election after the election of the new telegenic UKIP leader Diane James
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 1,497
    edited September 2016
    ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    edited September 2016

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed

    UKIP gained 2.4% to ... 2.4% and came bottom.
    So what they increased their percentage of the vote which is the key factor and given they have not stood in the ward before unlike the other parties
  • Spiderman said:

    The Lib Dems have had some fantastic local by-election results, and in areas all around UK, so why are national opinion polls still showing them stagnant around 7%?

    Because the national factors that still put people on the left off voting LD in national elections don't apply in local elections.

    Farron has made some big mistakes nationally, by ailienating even the moderately Euro sceptics by nailing the LDs flag so closely to the Europhile mast and by failing to properly put Nick Clegg out to grass. They should and could be doing a lot better in national elections at a time when Labour has frankly been a shambles. In local elections though, such considerations are far less relevant.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035

    MaxPB said:

    The Lib Dem campaign in 2015 was to run away from the coalition record which allowed the Tories to claim credit for everything, including Lib Dem policies such as raising the threshold and a pledge to take people earning the minimum wage out of income tax.

    That was a huge error, one that mystified a lot of PB Tories. Including this one. Afterwards it transpired that it was Paddy Ashdown convince Clegg to run the campaign that they were the internal opposition to the Tories. Idiot man.

    And they are still confused about what strategy they are trying to follow. There was a superb example in this piece by Nick Clegg:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-stop-shortchanging-the-poor-young-and-indulging-the-rich-old-a3348491.html

    He's simultaneously trying to claim that the Triple Lock was an egregious piece of cynical Tory vote-chasing and that it was a wonderful LibDem policy of which the party can be proud.
    Will I be getting my triple lock too, Daddy :) ?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,831
    Indigo said:

    Spiderman said:

    The Lib Dems have had some fantastic local by-election results, and in areas all around UK, so why are national opinion polls still showing them stagnant around 7%?

    It’s one thing to vote for a local protest party, quite another to vote them into government.
    My parents were true blue Tories, always ticked the blue box in national elections, but quietly ticked the red box for local elections because the local Labour councillors were better at getting the bins emptied and the streets cleaned...
    My very first election as a voter, I did much the same. Blue national, locals a mix of blue, red and yellow based on the person as most of the candidates were pretty well known to the voters.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,761
    edited September 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Lib Dem campaign in 2015 was to run away from the coalition record which allowed the Tories to claim credit for everything, including Lib Dem policies such as raising the threshold and a pledge to take people earning the minimum wage out of income tax.

    That was a huge error, one that mystified a lot of PB Tories. Including this one. Afterwards it transpired that it was Paddy Ashdown convince Clegg to run the campaign that they were the internal opposition to the Tories. Idiot man.

    And they are still confused about what strategy they are trying to follow. There was a superb example in this piece by Nick Clegg:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-stop-shortchanging-the-poor-young-and-indulging-the-rich-old-a3348491.html

    He's simultaneously trying to claim that the Triple Lock was an egregious piece of cynical Tory vote-chasing and that it was a wonderful LibDem policy of which the party can be proud.
    Will I be getting my triple lock too, Daddy :) ?
    Not a chance, son.

    In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it disappears on November 23rd. Probably retaining the link to wages but ditching the 2.5%.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    IanB2 said:

    Indigo said:


    There is (as per this site) still real passion and anger around Brexit
    .

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37428764

    Brexit has had 'no major effect' on economy so far

    There has been little impact of the Brexit vote on the UK economy so far, says the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

    The pound is down, but we're still in the EU and no decisions have been made yet.
    Christ on a bike we seem to go around this loop for half an hour every damn night! Osborne had a punishment budget lined up for immediate after the vote, not after A50, or after 2 years, but after the vote because he was so "concerned" about the damage that would be done to the economy. The government press releases and bullshit documentation told us that the economy would go to hell in a handbasket after the vote, not after A50, or after 2 years, but after the vote.

    This fanciful discussion acts as if the markets didn't have clever people working for them and looking at the future and pricing in their predictions. No one except a small group of Meeks now doubt that we will leave the EU, and yet the markets are powering ahead, most people think there will be a fairly hard or very hard BrExit, and quite likely initially WTO conditions, and yet the markets are powering ahead.
    The markets are ahead because interest rates are lower still and because, around the world, authorities either are (or have announced that they are prepared to go) pumping huge amounts of imaginary money into propping everything up.

    None of this has any bearing on whether Brexit will bring disaster, or not. But then Sunil knew that very well; he just chose to cut off the ONS comment half way through.
    Precisely, and it is for that reason (amongst others) that I maintain BrExit will not be a financial disaster in any shape or form, because market response to the amount of money being conjured up out of thin air to keep markets around the world afloat will dwarf any slight (or even major) concerns they have about BrExit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    Indigo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indigo said:

    There's a market for sanity right now, though it needs a few eye catching policies of its own and, as I say, a narrative to counter the general media chortling at LD irrelevance.

    Farron isn't the man to front that party. The leftie vote is in love with the newly radical Labour party at the moment, the LD route to victory goes through the living rooms of Yellow Tories, people who voted for Clegg and then rowed in behind Cameron but are starting to feel alarmed about what May is starting to do.

    Apart from a few Cameroon Remainer MPs most moderate Tory voters are happy with May, moderate social democratic Labour voters who backed Ed Miliband but are wary of Corbyn are who Farron is aiming at
    How many of those are there. The WWC are never going to vote for him, they don't like sandals, the champagne socialists and other metro lefties are in love with Corbyn and the socially liberal financially sensible centrists will probably be quite happy with May. Intersect that modest group with rampant europhilia, which is almost absent outside the chattering classes, and who does he have left ?
    Many of the champagne socialists would have preferred Owen Smith and perhaps been ex SDP, they are the voters he is targeting
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed

    How were UKIP a gainer last night ? they got just 63 bigots to vote for them in Cardiff . I expect at least 1 gain from the Conservatives tomorrow possibly two , we shall see .
    It is true that the national polls do not show the same picture . However the raw poll data does show some improvement which goes after weighting and other adjustments . The last Ipsos Mori poll for example had raw data with 10% Lib Dems and 6% UKIP voters . After weightings the published figures were 6% Lib Dem and 9% UKIP .

    .
    I don't think it's in order for you to assert that all UKIP voters are bigots.
    What percentage would you estimate?
    Isn't the Hillary Definition 50% Deplorable?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,831

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed

    How were UKIP a gainer last night ? they got just 63 bigots to vote for them in Cardiff . I expect at least 1 gain from the Conservatives tomorrow possibly two , we shall see .
    It is true that the national polls do not show the same picture . However the raw poll data does show some improvement which goes after weighting and other adjustments . The last Ipsos Mori poll for example had raw data with 10% Lib Dems and 6% UKIP voters . After weightings the published figures were 6% Lib Dem and 9% UKIP .

    .
    I don't think it's in order for you to assert that all UKIP voters are bigots.
    What percentage would you estimate?
    Ah! You are Hillary and I claim my $5.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,831
    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed

    How were UKIP a gainer last night ? they got just 63 bigots to vote for them in Cardiff . I expect at least 1 gain from the Conservatives tomorrow possibly two , we shall see .
    It is true that the national polls do not show the same picture . However the raw poll data does show some improvement which goes after weighting and other adjustments . The last Ipsos Mori poll for example had raw data with 10% Lib Dems and 6% UKIP voters . After weightings the published figures were 6% Lib Dem and 9% UKIP .

    .
    I don't think it's in order for you to assert that all UKIP voters are bigots.
    What percentage would you estimate?
    Isn't the Hillary Definition 50% Deplorable?
    Snap!
  • The Lib Dems seem to be reinventing themselves as a local party for local people - a national ratepayers' party, if you like. Converting that to greater Parliamentary representation, however, is likely to be the work of more than one Parliament.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed

    How were UKIP a gainer last night ? they got just 63 bigots to vote for them in Cardiff . I expect at least 1 gain from the Conservatives tomorrow possibly two , we shall see .
    It is true that the national polls do not show the same picture . However the raw poll data does show some improvement which goes after weighting and other adjustments . The last Ipsos Mori poll for example had raw data with 10% Lib Dems and 6% UKIP voters . After weightings the published figures were 6% Lib Dem and 9% UKIP .

    .
    UKIP were the only other party than the LDs to increase their percentage of the votes last night and virtually every other pollster than Mori has them at least holding their general election score and ahead of the LDs and of course this was the first by election after the election of the new telegenic UKIP leader Diane James
    UKIP did not stand previously so they did not increase their vote at all .They did get 8% of the vote in Cardiff in GE 2015 and 7% in the Assembly elections in Cardiff so they have only lost around 2/3rds of their vote
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Lib Dem campaign in 2015 was to run away from the coalition record which allowed the Tories to claim credit for everything, including Lib Dem policies such as raising the threshold and a pledge to take people earning the minimum wage out of income tax.

    That was a huge error, one that mystified a lot of PB Tories. Including this one. Afterwards it transpired that it was Paddy Ashdown convince Clegg to run the campaign that they were the internal opposition to the Tories. Idiot man.

    And they are still confused about what strategy they are trying to follow. There was a superb example in this piece by Nick Clegg:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-stop-shortchanging-the-poor-young-and-indulging-the-rich-old-a3348491.html

    He's simultaneously trying to claim that the Triple Lock was an egregious piece of cynical Tory vote-chasing and that it was a wonderful LibDem policy of which the party can be proud.
    Will I be getting my triple lock too, Daddy :) ?
    Not a chance, son.

    In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it disappears on November 23rd. Probably retaining the link to wages but ditching the 2.5%.
    I'll have to try and make wise investment decisions then ;)
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,182

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Lib Dem campaign in 2015 was to run away from the coalition record which allowed the Tories to claim credit for everything, including Lib Dem policies such as raising the threshold and a pledge to take people earning the minimum wage out of income tax.

    That was a huge error, one that mystified a lot of PB Tories. Including this one. Afterwards it transpired that it was Paddy Ashdown convince Clegg to run the campaign that they were the internal opposition to the Tories. Idiot man.

    And they are still confused about what strategy they are trying to follow. There was a superb example in this piece by Nick Clegg:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-stop-shortchanging-the-poor-young-and-indulging-the-rich-old-a3348491.html

    He's simultaneously trying to claim that the Triple Lock was an egregious piece of cynical Tory vote-chasing and that it was a wonderful LibDem policy of which the party can be proud.
    Will I be getting my triple lock too, Daddy :) ?
    Not a chance, son.

    In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it disappears on November 23rd. Probably retaining the link to wages but ditching the 2.5%.
    Given it's a manifesto commitment, the need to keep Tory voters on-side and that we no longer worry about such old fashioned things as budget deficits, I expect the triple lock to stay for the rest of this parliament but for it's post 2020 end to be announced on Nov 23rd.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed

    How were UKIP a gainer last night ? they got just 63 bigots to vote for them in Cardiff . I expect at least 1 gain from the Conservatives tomorrow possibly two , we shall see .
    It is true that the national polls do not show the same picture . However the raw poll data does show some improvement which goes after weighting and other adjustments . The last Ipsos Mori poll for example had raw data with 10% Lib Dems and 6% UKIP voters . After weightings the published figures were 6% Lib Dem and 9% UKIP .

    .
    UKIP were the only other party than the LDs to increase their percentage of the votes last night and virtually every other pollster than Mori has them at least holding their general election score and ahead of the LDs and of course this was the first by election after the election of the new telegenic UKIP leader Diane James
    UKIP did not stand previously so they did not increase their vote at all .They did get 8% of the vote in Cardiff in GE 2015 and 7% in the Assembly elections in Cardiff so they have only lost around 2/3rds of their vote
    An increase from 0 to 2. 4% is an increase given they had no local presence or activists before. This is one ward not the whole City
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    Are UKIP reduced to claiming that getting 2% somewhere they didn't stand last time is some kind of progress?
  • It looks like Don Brind was very wrong about turnout for the Labour leadership election. It's been reported that 630,000 of the 640,000 people eligible to vote have done so.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,977
    Mr Senior,

    At the next local election, I will probably vote LD.

    I voted Leave so that makes me a bigot, but I don't see the point of voting Ukip now. Brexit is coming and Ukip is now a national party.

    But for local affairs, we can safely let the yellow peril back.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    IanB2 said:

    Are UKIP reduced to claiming that getting 2% somewhere they didn't stand last time is some kind of progress?

    Yes
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    edited September 2016

    It looks like Don Brind was very wrong about turnout for the Labour leadership election. It's been reported that 630,000 of the 640,000 people eligible to vote have done so.

    98% turnout o_O ?!

    Were you eligible in the end ?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,965
    JonathanD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Lib Dem campaign in 2015 was to run away from the coalition record which allowed the Tories to claim credit for everything, including Lib Dem policies such as raising the threshold and a pledge to take people earning the minimum wage out of income tax.

    That was a huge error, one that mystified a lot of PB Tories. Including this one. Afterwards it transpired that it was Paddy Ashdown convince Clegg to run the campaign that they were the internal opposition to the Tories. Idiot man.

    And they are still confused about what strategy they are trying to follow. There was a superb example in this piece by Nick Clegg:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-stop-shortchanging-the-poor-young-and-indulging-the-rich-old-a3348491.html

    He's simultaneously trying to claim that the Triple Lock was an egregious piece of cynical Tory vote-chasing and that it was a wonderful LibDem policy of which the party can be proud.
    Will I be getting my triple lock too, Daddy :) ?
    Not a chance, son.

    In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it disappears on November 23rd. Probably retaining the link to wages but ditching the 2.5%.
    Given it's a manifesto commitment, the need to keep Tory voters on-side and that we no longer worry about such old fashioned things as budget deficits, I expect the triple lock to stay for the rest of this parliament but for it's post 2020 end to be announced on Nov 23rd.
    Inflation should rise over the next couple of years, reducing if not eliminating the value of the triple lock
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,853
    edited September 2016

    It looks like Don Brind was very wrong about turnout for the Labour leadership election. It's been reported that 630,000 of the 640,000 people eligible to vote have done so.

    But those people who liked the Foo Fighters on Facebook were ruled ineligible to vote...
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    CD13 said:

    Mr Senior,

    At the next local election, I will probably vote LD.

    I voted Leave so that makes me a bigot, but I don't see the point of voting Ukip now. Brexit is coming and Ukip is now a national party.

    But for local affairs, we can safely let the yellow peril back.

    Voting Leave does not make you a bigot . The reason(s) you did so may or may not .
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Cookie said:

    Indigo said:

    But I'm mystified as to what it should be. Advocating liberalism would be a start.

    Supporting democracy would be another... why bother with what the people want when the sanctimonious right-on wing of the upper middle classes know better ?
    "Europe" is something of an article of faith to a large segment of Lib Dem activists and voters, dating back to SDP/Alliance days, and Farron sniffs an opportunity to tactically position himself and his party on it.

    But, he needs to be careful. Soon the EU will be yesterday's news and the question will then arise again as to what the Lib Dems are for.

    A smart Lib Dem leader would be positioning himself/herself for the realities of the changed UK geopolitical landscape to come, which is likely to be rather different in the decades to come.
    Do you remember the days about ten years ago when the Lib Dems promised a referendum on membership of the EU? And indeed staged a bizarre walkout of the commons in the debate over whether to have a referendum on the Lisbon treaty because what they ostensibly wanted was a referendum on membership of the EU? One of their odder episodes, especially given the way they have behaved since the referendum they ostensibly wanted happened.
    As a former Tory MP said to me..... we hate Labour but despise the LibDems.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    edited September 2016
    IanB2 said:

    Are UKIP reduced to claiming that getting 2% somewhere they didn't stand last time is some kind of progress?

    If it is in one of their weakest areas of Cardiff of course as building a presence there helps them in the City overall
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    CD13 said:

    Mr Senior,

    At the next local election, I will probably vote LD.

    I voted Leave so that makes me a bigot, but I don't see the point of voting Ukip now. Brexit is coming and Ukip is now a national party.

    But for local affairs, we can safely let the yellow peril back.

    Unless May takes the UK out of the single market and completely ends freedom of movement and immigration has fallen significantly by 2020 UKIP will still have a purpose for many Leave voters
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I love this:

    "‘I voted for Owen Smith,’ says Jeremy Corbyn’s ex-wife
    Professor Jane Chapman—who was married to the Labour leader between 1974 and 1979—said on 5 Live this morning that, ‘saddened and upset’ by the state of the Labour party, she voted for Owen Smith in this year's Labour leadership election."

    The Spectator, today.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2016

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed

    How were UKIP a gainer last night ? they got just 63 bigots to vote for them in Cardiff . I expect at least 1 gain from the Conservatives tomorrow possibly two , we shall see .
    It is true that the national polls do not show the same picture . However the raw poll data does show some improvement which goes after weighting and other adjustments . The last Ipsos Mori poll for example had raw data with 10% Lib Dems and 6% UKIP voters . After weightings the published figures were 6% Lib Dem and 9% UKIP .

    .
    I don't think it's in order for you to assert that all UKIP voters are bigots.
    It is not in order to assert that all UKIP voters are bigots Mark Senior, but typical. Polly Mackensie ex advisor to Clegg was on BBC 2 DP prog yesterday and used the phrase about her party as "decent" compared to UKIP. It was if she was speaking about some party made up of filth. A simply awful way to regard fellow citizens. There were prior to 2010, surveys run that regularly found that almost half of the then LD voters were eurosceptic. No wonder the LDs are down to 8% and cling to a few isolated victories through bussed in helpers at by elections in council seats. Spitting on potential voters is a Ratner type of behaviour.
  • sladeslade Posts: 675
    Spiderman said:

    The Lib Dems have had some fantastic local by-election results, and in areas all around UK, so why are national opinion polls still showing them stagnant around 7%?

    In the 1% of the country where there has been a local by-election the voters will have received lots of leaflets and might have been canvassed. In another 9% the local party will be doing something of the same. In the other 90% the only evidence of Lib Dem activity is on the national media - in other words virtually nothing.
  • Pulpstar said:

    It looks like Don Brind was very wrong about turnout for the Labour leadership election. It's been reported that 630,000 of the 640,000 people eligible to vote have done so.

    98% turnout o_O ?!

    Were you eligible in the end ?

    Yep.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,841
    Spiderman said:

    The Lib Dems have had some fantastic local by-election results, and in areas all around UK, so why are national opinion polls still showing them stagnant around 7%?

    You can win at a local level with a good team who work at it. The Lib Dems have had some very bad results as well. I think it comes down to boots on the ground.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,100
    Indigo said:

    There's a market for sanity right now, though it needs a few eye catching policies of its own and, as I say, a narrative to counter the general media chortling at LD irrelevance.

    Farron isn't the man to front that party. The leftie vote is in love with the newly radical Labour party at the moment, the LD route to victory goes through the living rooms of Yellow Tories, people who voted for Clegg and then rowed in behind Cameron but are starting to feel alarmed about what May is starting to do.

    Yes I think that's right. The LDs have come a long way from their lefter-than-Lab stance pre-coalition. Now of course it would be a physical and ideological impossibility to be lefter than Labour. Plus, having had a spell in government, they will or should be a hell of a lot more pragmatic than previously.

    Depending on choices they make (big if), it would be easy to be long term bullish on the LDs.
  • MikeK said:

    I love this:

    "‘I voted for Owen Smith,’ says Jeremy Corbyn’s ex-wife
    Professor Jane Chapman—who was married to the Labour leader between 1974 and 1979—said on 5 Live this morning that, ‘saddened and upset’ by the state of the Labour party, she voted for Owen Smith in this year's Labour leadership election."

    The Spectator, today.

    The killer quote for me was that Jezza was still stuck in the in 70s.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145

    It looks like Don Brind was very wrong about turnout for the Labour leadership election. It's been reported that 630,000 of the 640,000 people eligible to vote have done so.

    Don Brind's abuse of this site to post his ill-informed (at best) spin is not PB's finest hour.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    It looks like Don Brind was very wrong about turnout for the Labour leadership election. It's been reported that 630,000 of the 640,000 people eligible to vote have done so.

    It being Labour and Momentum - are you sure you haven't got those two figures reversed?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,363

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest gainers last night the LDs and UKIP, biggest losers Labour, Plaid and the Greens. That suggests Corbyn Labour could get squeezed by the LDs in the centre and UKIP amongst white working class while making some gains from the Greens and Plaid. Tories little changed

    How were UKIP a gainer last night ? they got just 63 bigots to vote for them in Cardiff . I expect at least 1 gain from the Conservatives tomorrow possibly two , we shall see .
    It is true that the national polls do not show the same picture . However the raw poll data does show some improvement which goes after weighting and other adjustments . The last Ipsos Mori poll for example had raw data with 10% Lib Dems and 6% UKIP voters . After weightings the published figures were 6% Lib Dem and 9% UKIP .

    .
    I don't think it's in order for you to assert that all UKIP voters are bigots.
    Quite correct , I was wrong . There were only 62 of them .
    I doubt if there's much difference in the proportion of Lib Dem voters and UKIP voters who are either bigots or saints.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    slade said:

    Spiderman said:

    The Lib Dems have had some fantastic local by-election results, and in areas all around UK, so why are national opinion polls still showing them stagnant around 7%?

    In the 1% of the country where there has been a local by-election the voters will have received lots of leaflets and might have been canvassed. In another 9% the local party will be doing something of the same. In the other 90% the only evidence of Lib Dem activity is on the national media - in other words virtually nothing.
    I would estimate that between July and the end of November there will have been council by elections in around 4% of the country as a whole
  • TOPPING said:

    Indigo said:

    There's a market for sanity right now, though it needs a few eye catching policies of its own and, as I say, a narrative to counter the general media chortling at LD irrelevance.

    Farron isn't the man to front that party. The leftie vote is in love with the newly radical Labour party at the moment, the LD route to victory goes through the living rooms of Yellow Tories, people who voted for Clegg and then rowed in behind Cameron but are starting to feel alarmed about what May is starting to do.

    Yes I think that's right. The LDs have come a long way from their lefter-than-Lab stance pre-coalition. Now of course it would be a physical and ideological impossibility to be lefter than Labour. Plus, having had a spell in government, they will or should be a hell of a lot more pragmatic than previously.

    Depending on choices they make (big if), it would be easy to be long term bullish on the LDs.
    Their being in coalition with the Conservatives might be a reason to suspect a certain right-wing bent.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,728

    It looks like Don Brind was very wrong about turnout for the Labour leadership election. It's been reported that 630,000 of the 640,000 people eligible to vote have done so.

    How ironic it would be if Owen Smith does win after Don bigged up his chances on here so much then backed down at the eleventh hour!
  • FPT:
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Parliament should vote on whether to trigger Article 50. But Parliament should vote to trigger Article 50. To do otherwise would be outrageous.

    From here, we have to ensure that Parliament has primacy over the executive. The British people voted to take power back from Brussels. Our power does not reside in the government, it resides in Parliament. The courts need to clarify that.

    1. Parliament should have primacy over the government but the electorate at large should have primacy over both. A vote in parliament would be contrary to that principle.

    2. Parliament has already had a vote when it passed the legislation authorising the referendum, unless you take the view that the referendum was an irrelevance.
    The second only flies of the referendum was agreed as binding. Which it could have been (as was AV, as I recall). But this one wasn't. If Parliament agrees a referendum as advisory it must leave open the possibility - in theory if not in practice - that the result can be disregarded.
    Can you please cite the clause in the Act that allows for the result to be ignored?
    The absence of the words in section 8 of the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011.

    Having a Referendum does not equate to taking a decision, unless the Act so specifies.
    In other words, no, you can't. Parliament did not specify it was advisory, therefore it wasn't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    Two words have barely been mentioned in the debate today "Owen" and "Smith". If I had a vote in this one it would almost certainly be for Corbyn, I think Smith would be an utter disaster as Labour leader - even more so than Corbyn & McDonnell.

    I've never seen a more vacuous, anonymous or poor candidate run for leadership of a major party, ever.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    edited September 2016
    Essexit said:

    It looks like Don Brind was very wrong about turnout for the Labour leadership election. It's been reported that 630,000 of the 640,000 people eligible to vote have done so.

    How ironic it would be if Owen Smith does win after Don bigged up his chances on here so much then backed down at the eleventh hour!
    He's been cheap as chips to buy on Betfair recently, so anyone betting about the contest ought to be in good shape right now.

    I can't find it in myself to back Smith any further mind, I think the die is cast having heard the respective parties.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145

    FPT:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Parliament should vote on whether to trigger Article 50. But Parliament should vote to trigger Article 50. To do otherwise would be outrageous.

    From here, we have to ensure that Parliament has primacy over the executive. The British people voted to take power back from Brussels. Our power does not reside in the government, it resides in Parliament. The courts need to clarify that.

    1. Parliament should have primacy over the government but the electorate at large should have primacy over both. A vote in parliament would be contrary to that principle.

    2. Parliament has already had a vote when it passed the legislation authorising the referendum, unless you take the view that the referendum was an irrelevance.
    The second only flies of the referendum was agreed as binding. Which it could have been (as was AV, as I recall). But this one wasn't. If Parliament agrees a referendum as advisory it must leave open the possibility - in theory if not in practice - that the result can be disregarded.
    Can you please cite the clause in the Act that allows for the result to be ignored?
    The absence of the words in section 8 of the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011.

    Having a Referendum does not equate to taking a decision, unless the Act so specifies.
    In other words, no, you can't. Parliament did not specify it was advisory, therefore it wasn't.
    Lol. Go learn some law.
This discussion has been closed.