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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in t

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in the parliament’s first CON Westminster by-election defence?

Betfair have now got up a Witney market on which party will be the winner excluding the Tories who clearly are red hot favourites to hold onto the seat that Cameron held from GE2005 until a week last Monday.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    First like the Tories.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 26,746
    Maybe the Greens will get second place.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,481
    The Tories will win but hard to call for second between those 3
  • Witney, the home of 2nd places and lost deposits…
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,547
    There are enough pockets of Labour friendly areas in the constituency for them to comfortably hold second in my opinion.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2016
    What I would add to Mike's article is the reality of the election calendar.

    There are 5 weeks to the election day in Witney. But, there are just 2 weeks before the postal ballots go out on 6th October. The fact that UKIP have not yet selected a candidate 9 days after Cameron resigned, illustrates just how bad UKIP are at by elections. UKIP lost out at Eastleigh because of postal votes. They failed to be prepared early enough then even though they had months of notice that a by election was likely. At the Eastleigh by election, the Conservatives were not much better than UKIP. That said if the Conservatives select a REMAINer for Witney then UKIP could come 2nd. But today the campaign does not look good for UKIP and the LDs may get 2nd place. Labour do look vulnerable to losing 2nd place.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347
    Seventh like UkIp
  • Is this thread the right one now?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,385
    Has to be the sort of seat the LDs should be second in, I'd have thought, to indicate recovery - a major problem they have is they are not even in second or third in a lot of these types of seats anymore, and they need that so they can also challenge for first in a few of them (not this one, obviously, but if in second it could bode will for SW recovery).
  • Last like Owen Thingy....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 46,323

    Last like Owen Thingy....

    Who?
  • Just posted the latest betting on the header
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,668
    edited September 2016
    Between Labour and the LibDems, I'd have thought. Probably Labour, and I think the 6/4 is value.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,390
    edited September 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Last like Owen Thingy....

    Who?
    Owen Jones, Wilson, Farrell...erhhh you know Thingy.
  • So David Cameron was an MP for fifteen years, of which he was leader for nearly eleven years, and a frontbencher for thirteen of those years.

    Impressive.
  • Oops, the 6/4 has already gone.
  • 16/1 2nd place CONs? Surely way too short??
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,776
    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
  • If you like pennies/bulldozers 2% ain't bad
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 46,323

    Owen Jones, Wilson, Farrell...erhhh you know Thingy.

    Did he ever do anything I might have seen?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,385

    So David Cameron was an MP for fifteen years, of which he was leader for nearly eleven years, and a frontbencher for thirteen of those years.

    Impressive.

    [Input snarky comment about not achieving anything in that time and being wrong about everything here]

    That'll save some time. But in all seriousness, given many MPs will see frontbench roles as a major goal (not all, obviously), proportionally his amount of time in those roles in very efficient.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,086
    edited September 2016
    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.

    Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,385
    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    Well, sure, but in the rural shires they only vote for LDs thesedays when they say they are liberal Tories. It's a branding thing.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    http://www.nbcnews.com/card/nbc-news-wall-street-journal-poll-sept-21-n651871

    NBC poll of what issues most concern voters. top 4:

    Trump comments about women,immigrants and Muslims
    Trump's not having a presidential temperament
    Clinton's use of private email server while sec. of state
    Clinton's judgement dealing with Syria,Iraq and Libya

    Hillary health concern comes bottom (only 44% of voters concerned about it)
  • kle4 said:

    So David Cameron was an MP for fifteen years, of which he was leader for nearly eleven years, and a frontbencher for thirteen of those years.

    Impressive.

    [Input snarky comment about not achieving anything in that time and being wrong about everything here]

    That'll save some time. But in all seriousness, given many MPs will see frontbench roles as a major goal (not all, obviously), proportionally his amount of time in those roles in very efficient.
    He was lucky in that Michael Howard, who was a real fan of David Cameron, became leader when he did in 2003 and appointed Dave rapidly, though people forget his first choice was George Osborne to succeed him in 2005.
  • Scott_P said:

    Owen Jones, Wilson, Farrell...erhhh you know Thingy.

    Did he ever do anything I might have seen?
    Apparently he has a 29 inch cock, so probably only in something suitable for after the watershed.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,343
    I don't really get why the Lib Dems are so strong in second place betting here. Their local by-elections record is formidable at the moment, but it wasn't shabby when the previous parliamentary by-elections happened. And yet they didn't recover from similar %s as they are on in Witney.

    It seems people are forgetting Labour weren't just 2nd last time, but 2nd by a good 10%. The LDs barely held their deposit. If they can work their magic like in wards recently then they will come second, but Labour really just need to stay on 15-20% and they'll probably come second. They've picked the same candidate, and will probably put some decent resource into the fight (Corbyn needs this as much as Farron, if not more).

    Anything over evens is probably value on Labour, in the absence of polling to the contrary.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,471
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,664
    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,086
    edited September 2016
    Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by six points among likely voters heading into the first presidential debate on Monday, according to a brand-new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

    The survey - which was conducted after Clinton's return to the campaign trail following her bout with pneumonia - shows a bigger advantage for the secretary of state than did polls taken during the heightened scrutiny of her health.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-leads-trump-ahead-first-debate-n652141
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    nbc news poll

    nationwide

    clinton 43
    trump 37
    johnson 9
  • So David Cameron was an MP for fifteen years, of which he was leader for nearly eleven years, and a frontbencher for thirteen of those years.

    Impressive.

    Hopefully you didn't type that one-handed? :innocent:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,603
    Ishmael_X said:

    http://www.nbcnews.com/card/nbc-news-wall-street-journal-poll-sept-21-n651871

    NBC poll of what issues most concern voters. top 4:

    Trump comments about women,immigrants and Muslims
    Trump's not having a presidential temperament
    Clinton's use of private email server while sec. of state
    Clinton's judgement dealing with Syria,Iraq and Libya

    Hillary health concern comes bottom (only 44% of voters concerned about it)

    Bizarre. Not concerned about them both being crooked in their different ways. Shows how low their expectations of politicians are.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,086
    edited September 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.
    Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majority :smiley:
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,668
    edited September 2016
    Quincel said:

    I don't really get why the Lib Dems are so strong in second place betting here.

    I think it is because the worthy citizens of Witney don't seem to be a natural fit for the Corbyn revolution, so, faute de mieux, if they don't vote Conservative, it will have to be the LibDems, who do have some strength locally. I agree that Labour should be favourites to come 2nd, though.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,741
    edited September 2016
    A nightmare story for me:

    Apple to buy McLaren?

    http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/

    NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,343

    Quincel said:

    I don't really get why the Lib Dems are so strong in second place betting here.

    I think it is because the worthy citizens of Witney don't seem to be a natural fit for the Corbyn revolution, so, faute de mieux, if they don't vote Conservative, it will have to be the LibDems, who do have some strength locally. I agree that Labour should be favourites, though.
    I won't deny that I don't know Witney particularly, but were the LDs not much better campaigners I'd see the seat as more Kipper friendly than LD. Isn't it rural shires stuff, where voters resent the metropolitan Tories pulling the party to the centre? I note that in the 7 neighbouring constituencies the LD vs UKIP 'fight' went 4-3 in the LDs favour, if that means anything.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,776

    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.

    Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?
    I'm not in the Tory party, though I'm sure many on the 'moronic' wing thereof would share my view. It does alarm me that the Tories felt the only way they could win was under a rather weak tea type who barely deviated from Blair in several significant areas.
  • Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.

    Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?
    He's also the only party to leader to lose a EU referendum in the last 40 years :lol:

    Just sayin... :innocent:
  • A nightmare story for me:

    Apple to buy McLaren?

    http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/

    NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!

    The next model they release after buying them, they will be removing the round wheels and replace them with square ones....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 46,323

    A nightmare story for me:

    Apple to buy McLaren?

    http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/

    NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!

    Apparently not. They had talks. Apple now talking to other car manufacturers
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 46,323
    @TelePolitics: David Cameron's successor as Witney MP must back legalising fox hunting, says local party telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/2…
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,385
    Scott_P said:

    @TelePolitics: David Cameron's successor as Witney MP must back legalising fox hunting, says local party telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/2…

    Key issue of the day, obviously, but hey, if that's what chimes with local voters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,603
    Scott_P said:

    A nightmare story for me:

    Apple to buy McLaren?

    http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/

    NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!

    Apparently not. They had talks. Apple now talking to other car manufacturers
    Maybe they will approach it in the same way as their phones. Buy up a whole batch, extract all the good bits and put them in a shiny new case.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,385
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.

    Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?
    I'm not in the Tory party, though I'm sure many on the 'moronic' wing thereof would share my view. It does alarm me that the Tories felt the only way they could win was under a rather weak tea type who barely deviated from Blair in several significant areas.
    Pre-Corbyn they were probably right it was the only way to win.
  • Scott_P said:

    A nightmare story for me:

    Apple to buy McLaren?

    http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/

    NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!

    Apparently not. They had talks. Apple now talking to other car manufacturers
    A computer manufacturer going into transport... Clive Sinclair was ahead of his time.

    In all seriousness it's sad that the era of British computing in the 80s got killed off.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    more from that nbc poll

    in a 2 way, hillary leads by 7

    clinton leads with educated whites by 6

    with women by 17

    by over 90 wirh african americans and 60 with hispanics

    more people see donald as honest by 10

    more people see hilary as presidental by 30
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,664

    MaxPB said:

    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.
    Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majority :smiley:
    Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,481
    edited September 2016
    BBC News interviewing Corbyn and Corbyn supporters at one of his campaign phonebanks. His supporters were asked what the first priority should be for his leadership if he is re-elected, one of the first responses was 'Intersectional Feminism!'
  • Quincel said:

    I won't deny that I don't know Witney particularly, but were the LDs not much better campaigners I'd see the seat as more Kipper friendly than LD. Isn't it rural shires stuff, where voters resent the metropolitan Tories pulling the party to the centre? I note that in the 7 neighbouring constituencies the LD vs UKIP 'fight' went 4-3 in the LDs favour, if that means anything.

    Rural shires aren't necessarily Kipperesque, especially not Oxfordshire shires. Theresa May is still in her honeymoon, she's delivering Brexit, she's sounding tough on immigration. And she's not David Cameron, which in the short term is an advantage. Why would people who didn't vote UKIP in 2015 do so now?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 30,336
    edited September 2016

    MaxPB said:

    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.
    Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majority :smiley:
    Shaun Woodward was originally a Tory wot defected to Labour :)
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,343
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.
    Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majority :smiley:
    Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.
    Yes, Dave beat a 'Michael Bartlet'. Who possibly moved to St Albans and began failing to win local elections, judging by a quick Google of his name. Or it's someone else.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,664
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.

    Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?
    I'm not in the Tory party, though I'm sure many on the 'moronic' wing thereof would share my view. It does alarm me that the Tories felt the only way they could win was under a rather weak tea type who barely deviated from Blair in several significant areas.
    Whatever wins. In the 6 years we've been in power countless policies have been enacted and we've had a vote to leave the EU delivered by a Tory PM. I don't understand the issue. If Dave hadn't delivered the majority then we'd never have even had a vote let alone be leaving the EU.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,343
    edited September 2016

    Quincel said:

    I won't deny that I don't know Witney particularly, but were the LDs not much better campaigners I'd see the seat as more Kipper friendly than LD. Isn't it rural shires stuff, where voters resent the metropolitan Tories pulling the party to the centre? I note that in the 7 neighbouring constituencies the LD vs UKIP 'fight' went 4-3 in the LDs favour, if that means anything.

    Rural shires aren't necessarily Kipperesque, especially not Oxfordshire shires. Theresa May is still in her honeymoon, she's delivering Brexit, she's sounding tough on immigration. And she's not David Cameron, which in the short term is an advantage. Why would people who didn't vote UKIP in 2015 do so now?
    The general mid-term reason/excuse of wanting to pressure the government more to the side you want? You're probably right though, and we seem to basically agree anyway.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,390
    edited September 2016
    HYUFD said:

    BBC News interviewing Corbyn and Corbyn supporters at one of his campaign phonebanks. His supporters were asked what the first priority should be for his leadership if he is re-elected, one of the first responses was 'Intersectional Feminism!'

    Unfortunately I need a translation to English. What is intersectional Feminism?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,481
    619 said:

    nbc news poll

    nationwide

    clinton 43
    trump 37
    johnson 9

    Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,603
    Quincel said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.
    Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majority :smiley:
    Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.
    Yes, Dave beat a 'Michael Bartlet'. Who possibly moved to St Albans and began failing to win local elections, judging by a quick Google of his name. Or it's someone else.
    Is that the brother of the former American President ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,385
    edited September 2016

    HYUFD said:

    BBC News interviewing Corbyn and Corbyn supporters at one of his campaign phonebanks. His supporters were asked what the first priority should be for his leadership if he is re-elected, one of the first responses was 'Intersectional Feminism!'

    Unfortunately I need a translation to English. What is intersectional Feminism?
    A quick google seems to indicate it is about making sure there is not a single official feminist type view, in particular recognising people have other characteristics and experiences which mean a white middle class feminist viewpoint may not accord completely with a working class black feminist viewpoint.

    I think that means its about, when discussing feminist issues, to take account of other 'isms' that might also be in play like racism and classism.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,776
    kle4 said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.

    Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?
    I'm not in the Tory party, though I'm sure many on the 'moronic' wing thereof would share my view. It does alarm me that the Tories felt the only way they could win was under a rather weak tea type who barely deviated from Blair in several significant areas.
    Pre-Corbyn they were probably right it was the only way to win.
    Maybe, maybe not. Politics isn't a Hotelling model-esque left-right spectrum, or at least it's not just that. Someone advocating more right-wing policies and selling them well might have done better than Cameron, who often sounded like he was just saying whatever he thought voters wanted to hear.

    In all seriousness though my original comment was slightly tongue-in-cheek and I accept that Cameron was an improvement on, say, Brown or Miliband.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,343
    edited September 2016

    HYUFD said:

    BBC News interviewing Corbyn and Corbyn supporters at one of his campaign phonebanks. His supporters were asked what the first priority should be for his leadership if he is re-elected, one of the first responses was 'Intersectional Feminism!'

    Unfortunately I need a translation to English. What is intersectional Feminism?
    Appreciating that women who are disadvantaged in other ways require specific or simply stronger attempts to support them. So black women suffer from racism differently to black men, and sexism differently to white women.

    Or it's nonsense, your pick. But that's what he meant.
  • HYUFD said:

    BBC News interviewing Corbyn and Corbyn supporters at one of his campaign phonebanks. His supporters were asked what the first priority should be for his leadership if he is re-elected, one of the first responses was 'Intersectional Feminism!'

    Unfortunately I need a translation to English. What is intersectional Feminism?
    Things like racism, Islamphobia, homophobia, misogyny etc are all interlinked.

    So if you tackle one, you're tacking all of them, because if you're likely to be a misogynist, you're likely to hate not only women, but blacks, Muslims, and gays.

    The things you learn from the protesters in the centre of Manchester
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,603

    HYUFD said:

    BBC News interviewing Corbyn and Corbyn supporters at one of his campaign phonebanks. His supporters were asked what the first priority should be for his leadership if he is re-elected, one of the first responses was 'Intersectional Feminism!'

    Unfortunately I need a translation to English. What is intersectional Feminism?
    Things like racism, Islamphobia, homophobia, misogyny etc are all interlinked.

    So if you tackle one, you're tacking all of them, because if you're likely to be a misogynist, you're likely to hate not only women, but blacks, Muslims, and gays.

    The things you learn from the protesters in the centre of Manchester
    Just all round not a good egg?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,481
    edited September 2016

    HYUFD said:

    BBC News interviewing Corbyn and Corbyn supporters at one of his campaign phonebanks. His supporters were asked what the first priority should be for his leadership if he is re-elected, one of the first responses was 'Intersectional Feminism!'

    Unfortunately I need a translation to English. What is intersectional Feminism?
    "The view that women experience oppression in varying configurations and in varying degrees of intensity. Cultural patterns of oppression are not only interrelated, but are bound together and influenced by the intersectional systems of society. Examples of this include race, gender, class, ability, and ethnicity.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/10572435/Intersectional-feminism.-What-the-hell-is-it-And-why-you-should-care.html

    Clearly some Corbynites are now on a different planet from many of the traditional white working class Labour vote!
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    The new caring style of politics

    Labour MPs hire BODYGUARDS to protect them from hard-left disciples of Jeremy Corbyn as voting ends in the party's angry leadership contest

    Moderate Labour MPs opposed to Jeremy Corbyn have hired bodyguards to keep them safe from aggressive hard-left activists at conference, it emerged today.As Labour's angry and divisive leadership election drew to a close with the end of voting at noon, opponents of Mr Corbyn were coming to terms with his widely expected second victory.

    MPs who spoke out against Mr Corbyn for being incompetent and divisive have revealed campaigns of harassment against them repeatedly since the contest between Mr Corbyn and Owen Smith began earlier this summer.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3799790/Labour-MPs-hire-BODYGUARDS-protect-hard-left-disciples-Jeremy-Corbyn-voting-ends-party-s-angry-leadership-contest.html#ixzz4Kvb8O2lS
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,385
    Essexit said:

    kle4 said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.

    Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?
    I'm not in the Tory party, though I'm sure many on the 'moronic' wing thereof would share my view. It does alarm me that the Tories felt the only way they could win was under a rather weak tea type who barely deviated from Blair in several significant areas.
    Pre-Corbyn they were probably right it was the only way to win.
    Maybe, maybe not. Politics isn't a Hotelling model-esque left-right spectrum, or at least it's not just that. Someone advocating more right-wing policies and selling them well might have done better than Cameron, who often sounded like he was just saying whatever he thought voters wanted to hear.

    In all seriousness though my original comment was slightly tongue-in-cheek and I accept that Cameron was an improvement on, say, Brown or Miliband.
    I happen to think the left-right spectrum is largely nonsense and its about tribal branding - plenty of people who think of themselves as right or left wing will in actuality support ideas which are espoused by the other side, until they find out who is behind it - and its Corbyn's incompetence more than the leftness of his policies I think is the issue. If he gets his act together and Labour, in fear of a split, pull together, they have a chance even then, if not a great one. So yes, maybe a right wing leader who was good could have done what Cameron did, although the right wingedness or not would likely not have anything to do with it - some people think Cameron was really right wing, but just came across as centrish, while others think he was a LD.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,385
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.
    Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majority :smiley:
    Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.
    Cameron was so great he scared off the incumbent before he even stood.
  • Quincel said:

    I won't deny that I don't know Witney particularly, but were the LDs not much better campaigners I'd see the seat as more Kipper friendly than LD. Isn't it rural shires stuff, where voters resent the metropolitan Tories pulling the party to the centre? I note that in the 7 neighbouring constituencies the LD vs UKIP 'fight' went 4-3 in the LDs favour, if that means anything.

    Rural shires aren't necessarily Kipperesque, especially not Oxfordshire shires. Theresa May is still in her honeymoon, she's delivering Brexit, she's sounding tough on immigration. And she's not David Cameron, which in the short term is an advantage. Why would people who didn't vote UKIP in 2015 do so now?
    Witney town is not especially nice but is quite small. There and Chipping Norton town are where Lab has some strength. Most of the population lives in small towns and villages. There is a lot of money in the part of the seat in the Cotswolds (e.g. the Chipping Norton set). Woodstock is also very nice. Generally this seat would be far too prosperous for UKIP to do well.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    nbc news poll

    nationwide

    clinton 43
    trump 37
    johnson 9

    Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/
    isnt the nbc news poll A+ with 538 though?

    also interesting is that trump is doing worse with non educated whites than romney (+18 vs +24) and a lot worse with educated whites (clinton on +6 compared with romneys +8)

    The thing most voters hate is what he says about immigrants and women (69% of voters). This wont help
  • A nightmare story for me:

    Apple to buy McLaren?

    http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/

    NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!

    The next model they release after buying them, they will be removing the round wheels and replace them with square ones....
    The wheels will be propietary oval shaped wheels that you can't get elsewhere and the in-car radio will be removed but you'll be able to get £160 headphones instead.

    TSE will call it the greatest thing since George Osborne.
  • A nightmare story for me:

    Apple to buy McLaren?

    http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/

    NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!

    The next model they release after buying them, they will be removing the round wheels and replace them with square ones....
    The wheels will be propietary oval shaped wheels that you can't get elsewhere and the in-car radio will be removed but you'll be able to get £160 headphones instead.

    TSE will call it the greatest thing since George Osborne.
    I can only imagine what the dealerships will be like....
  • A nightmare story for me:

    Apple to buy McLaren?

    http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/

    NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!

    The next model they release after buying them, they will be removing the round wheels and replace them with square ones....
    The wheels will be propietary oval shaped wheels that you can't get elsewhere and the in-car radio will be removed but you'll be able to get £160 headphones instead.

    TSE will call it the greatest thing since George Osborne.
    I remember when Apple dropped the floppy disc and cds from their machines, everyone else followed their lead, eventually.

    But you've given me an idea for Sunday's thread.

    George Osborne = Steve Jobs

    Theresa May = John Sculley
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    wsj: preference to be in charge of nuclear weopens

    clinton 51
    trump 25
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Interesting......N.Korea internet accidentally discovered by engineer

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37426725

    http://rodong.rep.kp./en/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,603
    Trend in favour of Trump now seems clearly to be in reverse. Can't help wondering if he is so marmite that any kind of threatened lead will push people to Hillary, no matter how reluctantly.
  • A nightmare story for me:

    Apple to buy McLaren?

    http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/

    NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!

    The next model they release after buying them, they will be removing the round wheels and replace them with square ones....
    The wheels will be propietary oval shaped wheels that you can't get elsewhere and the in-car radio will be removed but you'll be able to get £160 headphones instead.

    TSE will call it the greatest thing since George Osborne.
    I can only imagine what the dealerships will be like....
    Angela Ahrendts will have something to do. I'm intrigued by how low profile she's been since Apple hired her for megabucks.
  • Moses_ said:

    Interesting......N.Korea internet accidentally discovered by engineer

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37426725

    http://rodong.rep.kp./en/

    The guys who got hold on North Korea Official OS and broke it down, it was fascinating what they had got up to.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    In the local elections in West Oxon this May the vote shares were

    Con 46%
    Lab 26%
    LD 16%
    Green 8%
    UKIP 3%
    Ind 2%

    Not all wards voted and allowing that these are the more rural the estimated share overall would be

    Con 49%
    Lab 21%
    LD 18%
    Green 7%
    UKIP 4%
    Ind 1%
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,776
    kle4 said:

    Essexit said:

    kle4 said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.

    Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?
    I'm not in the Tory party, though I'm sure many on the 'moronic' wing thereof would share my view. It does alarm me that the Tories felt the only way they could win was under a rather weak tea type who barely deviated from Blair in several significant areas.
    Pre-Corbyn they were probably right it was the only way to win.
    Maybe, maybe not. Politics isn't a Hotelling model-esque left-right spectrum, or at least it's not just that. Someone advocating more right-wing policies and selling them well might have done better than Cameron, who often sounded like he was just saying whatever he thought voters wanted to hear.

    In all seriousness though my original comment was slightly tongue-in-cheek and I accept that Cameron was an improvement on, say, Brown or Miliband.
    I happen to think the left-right spectrum is largely nonsense and its about tribal branding - plenty of people who think of themselves as right or left wing will in actuality support ideas which are espoused by the other side, until they find out who is behind it - and its Corbyn's incompetence more than the leftness of his policies I think is the issue. If he gets his act together and Labour, in fear of a split, pull together, they have a chance even then, if not a great one. So yes, maybe a right wing leader who was good could have done what Cameron did, although the right wingedness or not would likely not have anything to do with it - some people think Cameron was really right wing, but just came across as centrish, while others think he was a LD.
    Agreed. And the polling a few days ago (the one where 5% described Corbyn as right wing) showed that a lot of voters aren't ideological one way or the other - presumably they'd back someone largely on grounds of leadership and/or conviction. Arguably this is how Maggie won (helped enormously by a terrible opposition, granted).

    A good right-wing leader certainly could have done what Cameron did, which after all, wasn't that much when you look at it: Brown and Miliband were both uninspiring leaders, against one he didn't get a majority at all, against the other he only barely did.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited September 2016
    They Certainly don't like Park Geun Hye. :open_mouth:

    Hysterics of Chongwadae Idiot

    http://rodong.rep.kp./en/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2016-09-21-0008
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,481
    edited September 2016
    619 said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    nbc news poll

    nationwide

    clinton 43
    trump 37
    johnson 9

    Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/
    isnt the nbc news poll A+ with 538 though?

    also interesting is that trump is doing worse with non educated whites than romney (+18 vs +24) and a lot worse with educated whites (clinton on +6 compared with romneys +8)

    The thing most voters hate is what he says about immigrants and women (69% of voters). This wont help
    I think nbc leans slightly Democrat eg today's RCP has Hillary ahead by 1.9% in a 2-way race but we shall see.

    Yougov meanwhile has 35% of Americans believing Hillary is evil, 50% corrupt and 44% dangerous, 35% also think Trump is evil, 51% think Trump is crazy, 48% think he is bigoted and 51% think he is racist
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    its looks like from that wsj poll ( 69% of people dislike trumps talking about immigration and people preferring clinton to deal with immigration by 51-25) is that trumps comments about refugees is backfiring massively
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    nbc news poll

    nationwide

    clinton 43
    trump 37
    johnson 9

    Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/
    isnt the nbc news poll A+ with 538 though?

    also interesting is that trump is doing worse with non educated whites than romney (+18 vs +24) and a lot worse with educated whites (clinton on +6 compared with romneys +8)

    The thing most voters hate is what he says about immigrants and women (69% of voters). This wont help
    I think nbc leans slightly Democrat eg today's RCP has Hillary ahead by 1.9% in a 2-way race but we shall see.

    Yougov meanwhile has 35% of Americans believing Hillary is evil, 50% corrupt and 44% dangerous, 35% also think Trump is evil, 51% think Trump is crazy, 48% think he is bigoted and 51% think he is racist
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf
    i dont thinl rcp has allowed for this poll. i expect this to change rcp tomorrow
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,037
    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    nbc news poll

    nationwide

    clinton 43
    trump 37
    johnson 9

    Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/
    The Reuters is a tracking poll with a significant lag, it hasn't fully caught the effect of the Clinton Collapse yet, so Trump could well pull ahead in that going forward.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,481
    edited September 2016
    619 said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    nbc news poll

    nationwide

    clinton 43
    trump 37
    johnson 9

    Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/
    isnt the nbc news poll A+ with 538 though?

    also interesting is that trump is doing worse with non educated whites than romney (+18 vs +24) and a lot worse with educated whites (clinton on +6 compared with romneys +8)

    The thing most voters hate is what he says about immigrants and women (69% of voters). This wont help
    I think nbc leans slightly Democrat eg today's RCP has Hillary ahead by 1.9% in a 2-way race but we shall see.

    Yougov meanwhile has 35% of Americans believing Hillary is evil, 50% corrupt and 44% dangerous, 35% also think Trump is evil, 51% think Trump is crazy, 48% think he is bigoted and 51% think he is racist
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf
    i dont thinl rcp has allowed for this poll. i expect this to change rcp tomorrow
    No, It is now included in the RCP average that gives the Clinton lead of 1.9%
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,037
    edited September 2016
    I'm dubious on this NBC poll due to the stonkingly approval rating for Obama. He's been polling well but not +12 well recently.
  • HYUFD said:

    ...Yougov meanwhile has 35% of Americans believing Hillary is evil, 50% corrupt and 44% dangerous, 35% also think Trump is evil, 51% think Trump is crazy, 48% think he is bigoted and 51% think he is racist...

    Apart from that, though, they are fine standard-bearers for the two great American political parties...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,481
    edited September 2016

    In the local elections in West Oxon this May the vote shares were

    Con 46%
    Lab 26%
    LD 16%
    Green 8%
    UKIP 3%
    Ind 2%

    Not all wards voted and allowing that these are the more rural the estimated share overall would be

    Con 49%
    Lab 21%
    LD 18%
    Green 7%
    UKIP 4%
    Ind 1%

    West Oxfordshire voted Remain, so on that basis should probably be a LD and Labour battle for second
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    A nightmare story for me:

    Apple to buy McLaren?

    http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/

    NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!

    The next model they release after buying them, they will be removing the round wheels and replace them with square ones....
    The wheels will be propietary oval shaped wheels that you can't get elsewhere and the in-car radio will be removed but you'll be able to get £160 headphones instead.

    TSE will call it the greatest thing since George Osborne.
    You could design a racetrack suitable for square wheels - would make overtaking tricky though as it would require special lanes.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,037
    DavidL said:

    Trend in favour of Trump now seems clearly to be in reverse. Can't help wondering if he is so marmite that any kind of threatened lead will push people to Hillary, no matter how reluctantly.

    There has been a trend observed that in polls that aak "who do you think will win" the higher the percentage who think Hillary will win the higher the third party vote.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2016
    Newsnight taking a look at the economy post the referendum vote. Manage to find people all forecasting a decline in growth rate.

    In the studio we then have 3 people, 1 (Heath) "over egged by REMAIN", Yeuh "creates economic uncertainty" and quotes Bank of England and Chris Giles at europhile FT says it will be bad after conceding in short term they got it wrong. 2 v1 for REMAIN........ Usual BBC loading the panel.
  • Newsnight taking a look at the economy post the referendum vote. Manage to find people all forecasting a decline in growth rate.

    In the studio we then have 3 people, 1 (Heath) "over egged by REMAIN", Yeuh "creates economic uncertainty and quotes Bank of England and Chris Giles at europhile FT says it will be bad after conceding in short term they got it wrong. 2 v1 for REMAIN........ Usual BBC loading the panel.

    Does anybody still watch Guardian TV Newsnight?
  • wasdwasd Posts: 276
    edited September 2016
    Moses_ said:

    They Certainly don't like Park Geun Hye. :open_mouth:

    Hysterics of Chongwadae Idiot

    http://rodong.rep.kp./en/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2016-09-21-0008

    I may have to start describing people as 'less than a worm' and telling them that they're 'a blind fool without elementary capacity to judge the situation' and that they're going to be unable to stop their 'poor destiny going to the final ruin'.

    That should make my meetings far more interesting.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,739
    Moses_ said:

    Interesting......N.Korea internet accidentally discovered by engineer

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37426725

    http://rodong.rep.kp./en/

    I have a horrible feeling NK's "minister for internet" might be meeting a grisly end as we speak...
  • GIN1138 said:

    Moses_ said:

    Interesting......N.Korea internet accidentally discovered by engineer

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37426725

    http://rodong.rep.kp./en/

    I have a horrible feeling NK's "minister for internet" might be meeting a grisly end as we speak...
    He certainly doesn't want to walk in front of any anti-aircraft guns anytime soon...
  • DavidL said:

    Quincel said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Essexit said:

    Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.

    This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.
    Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majority :smiley:
    Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.
    Yes, Dave beat a 'Michael Bartlet'. Who possibly moved to St Albans and began failing to win local elections, judging by a quick Google of his name. Or it's someone else.
    Is that the brother of the former American President ?
    Speaking of which.

  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    GIN1138 said:
    Is Heath responsible for the map, which shows Gibraltar voting Leave?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,481
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    nbc news poll

    nationwide

    clinton 43
    trump 37
    johnson 9

    Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/
    The Reuters is a tracking poll with a significant lag, it hasn't fully caught the effect of the Clinton Collapse yet, so Trump could well pull ahead in that going forward.
    LA Times and Yougov are all reasonably recent, the RCP average is about right ie Hillary is ahead by a little over 1%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,481

    HYUFD said:

    ...Yougov meanwhile has 35% of Americans believing Hillary is evil, 50% corrupt and 44% dangerous, 35% also think Trump is evil, 51% think Trump is crazy, 48% think he is bigoted and 51% think he is racist...

    Apart from that, though, they are fine standard-bearers for the two great American political parties...
    It is really the dog turd or the cat poo election for many Americans now!
This discussion has been closed.