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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    Cyclefree said:


    If only European states were trying to create a Europe which really learnt and understood the lessons of the Founding Fathers of the USA.

    Alas, instead of getting a government by "We the people", we have been getting one by unelected top down bureaucrats with little time for the people or, frankly, democracy.

    But the reason for that is because national governments wanted to retain a role, rather than allowing the EU parliament to have additional powers. It is the ugliness of the compromise between a commission appointed by elected national governments and the European parliament that leads to the democratic deficit. You could get rid of the deficit by allowing the EU parliament more powers, but once you do that, you inevitably set the EU on a near irreversible path towards statehood. Let us not forget that the US Congress original power, set up in the constitution, was simply to regulate interstate commerce.
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    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very true. They are daft enough to create a major problem for their exporters to the UK.

    Funnily enough, throwing away economic advantage for political reasons is exactly what the EU27 countries think the UK is doing. For that matter, that's also what much of the rest of the world thinks. Who knows which side is daft?
    To countries outside of the EU I would ask them whether they would join a political union whereby a foreign court and an unelected executive holds ultimate control, above national institutions. NAFTA, Mercosur and ASEAN are nothing like the EU. Even the TPP is just trade alignment which the EU goes well beyond. I think you'll find there won't be many takers.

    It's all well and good for them to judge, but until they are familiar with the ill and frankly corrosive effect the EU has on our national outlook and politics, they should keep their own council.
    Ask Californians if they would join the United States of Trump come December and the answer may well be no...

    It's a category error to compare the EU with things like NAFTA, Mercosur and ASEAN. You can't understand the EU without interpreting it as analogous to the nationalist movements that united Germany and Italy in centuries past, except on a continental scale (like China for that matter).
    But that's how the rest of the world sees the EU, as a trading bloc like NAFTA or alliance like ASEAN. They look from the outside in and wonder why we left, the US would never sign up to a political union where the SCOTUS was no longer the ultimate judicial arbiter, and yet they expect it of us. As for Germany or Italy, I'm not asking for them to want anything different, just that we want no part of it. Thankfully, I'm in the majority.
    That's not quite true regarding NAFTA. An ISDS tribunal struck down the Quebec provincial ban on GM seeds, for example.
    It's also not quite true regarding how the rest of the world sees the EU. It's generally understood that there is a process of European integration in a way that is quite different from a regional trade agreement. If nothing else, having a single currency gives the game away.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    MaxPB said:

    MTimT said:



    When political appointees filter down so far in the system, and sheriffs, judges and prosecutors are elected, it makes little sense to require your civil servants to be apolitical.

    I used to know a fairly senior architect in New York, who refused promition above a certain level because it would make his position vulnerable if the regime changed. That can't make sense - who needs politicsed architects?
    Don't they have elected commissioners in NYC for basically everything? Your friend was probably in housing.
    Quite the opposite - almost every office is appointed by the Mayor.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Cyclefree said:

    Very true. They are daft enough to create a major problem for their exporters to the UK.

    Funnily enough, throwing away economic advantage for political reasons is exactly what the EU27 countries think the UK is doing. For that matter, that's also what much of the rest of the world thinks. Who knows which side is daft?

    You mean political reasons such as wanting to govern yourself? That daft democracy idea?
    Thats right. Like the Scots....
    Yet they voted no ..... so obviously didn't want to when it came down to reality.

    I blame Braveheart.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very true. They are daft enough to create a major problem for their exporters to the UK.

    Funnily enough, throwing away economic advantage for political reasons is exactly what the EU27 countries think the UK is doing. For that matter, that's also what much of the rest of the world thinks. Who knows which side is daft?
    To countries outside of the EU I would ask them whether they would join a political union whereby a foreign court and an unelected executive holds ultimate control, above national institutions. NAFTA, Mercosur and ASEAN are nothing like the EU. Even the TPP is just trade alignment which the EU goes well beyond. I think you'll find there won't be many takers.

    It's all well and good for them to judge, but until they are familiar with the ill and frankly corrosive effect the EU has on our national outlook and politics, they should keep their own council.
    Ask Californians if they would join the United States of Trump come December and the answer may well be no...

    It's a category error to compare the EU with things like NAFTA, Mercosur and ASEAN. You can't understand the EU without interpreting it as analogous to the nationalist movements that united Germany and Italy in centuries past, except on a continental scale (like China for that matter).
    But that's how the rest of the world sees the EU, a.
    That's not quite true regarding NAFTA. An ISDS tribunal struck down the Quebec provincial ban on GM seeds, for example.
    It's also not quite true regarding how the rest of the world sees the EU. It's generally understood that there is a process of European integration in a way that is quite different from a regional trade agreement. If nothing else, having a single currency gives the game away.
    Which is of course why the UK voted to get out. We may eventually rejoin EFTA which is more akin to NAFTA and ASEAN and Mercosur than the EU is. Juncker and the EU elites certainly do believe they are creating a new superpower, however the EU population are not as enthusiastic especially in regards to the migration and austerity it brings. The biggest test for the EU may not actually be Brexit or the French or German or Dutch elections next year but the Italian elections in 2018 where the anti Euro 5* presently lead in the second round. If they try to take Italy out of the Eurozone that is when the whole thing could come crashing down!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Very true. They are daft enough to create a major problem for their exporters to the UK.

    Funnily enough, throwing away economic advantage for political reasons is exactly what the EU27 countries think the UK is doing. For that matter, that's also what much of the rest of the world thinks. Who knows which side is daft?

    You mean political reasons such as wanting to govern yourself? That daft democracy idea?
    Thats right. Like the Scots....
    And as I'm sure you recall I was in favour of Scots independence, if that's what they wanted, for precisely those reasons. Sometimes people value independence and self-government more than being richer but with less or no control. The view that Ireland took in the early part of the last century.

    Ireland of course now has a higher gdp per capita than the UK
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    GIN1138 said:
    How bad are things for Labour? Some people still think that Bananaman is the answer.

    :D
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334



    Nah, it's a myth. In truth, you'll be more likely to find PB Tories in Waitrose than in any other food store. They appear to sell around five times as many copies of the Daily Mail there than of any other newspaper.

    It's one of the free ones - if you spend over £5.

    Yes, I get the Guardian that way - have wondered how much the paper gets from it. Roughly equal stacks with the Mail in my Islington branch. Some Times as well, not much else.

    In Sainsbury in Beeston (the Guardianista part of my old patch, soon to migrate to Nottingham South), I'm told that the Morning Star outsells the Daily Express! Two worlds, eh?
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    edited September 2016



    Yes, I get the Guardian that way - have wondered how much the paper gets from it. Roughly equal stacks with the Mail in my Islington branch. Some Times as well, not much else.

    In Sainsbury in Beeston (the Guardianista part of my old patch, soon to migrate to Nottingham South), I'm told that the Morning Star outsells the Daily Express! Two worlds, eh?

    Is your Islington branch the Angel or the Holloway one?

    I was in the former at lunch, picking up a few odds and ends.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    edit
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Anyone want a good laugh ? Have a look at the Google polling on 538.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    HYUFD said:



    RCP now has Trump leading on average in both Florida and Ohio, no Republican since Nixon in 1960 has won those two states and lost the presidency

    Indeed - but even if Trump takes both, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona he still comes up short.

    Virginia makes things awfully difficult for him.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/apr/19/game-of-thrones-jonathan-pryce-jeremy-corbyn-high-sparrow-season-six

    I've just coming to the end of the 6th series but the comparison is really quite frightening. Sorry to fellow peers if I'm late on this one........
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:



    RCP now has Trump leading on average in both Florida and Ohio, no Republican since Nixon in 1960 has won those two states and lost the presidency

    Indeed - but even if Trump takes both, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona he still comes up short.

    Virginia makes things awfully difficult for him.
    One of Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin would also do it as would Colorado even if he lost Virginia. Whatever happens we are now heading for the second closest presidential election since World War 2 as of today's RCP state polling average
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    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:


    Florida will now edge to Trump in the RCP average giving Clinton a 275 to 263 lead overall

    There was a Florida Clinton+5 on Tuesday, but these have pretty tiny sample sizes, margins of error well over 4%.
    RCP now has Trump leading on average in both Florida and Ohio, no Republican since Nixon in 1960 has won those two states and lost the presidency
    538 has Trump winning Ohio and Florida - and losing.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    538 is currently predicting Trump to win 28 states, with gains in Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    edited September 2016

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:


    Florida will now edge to Trump in the RCP average giving Clinton a 275 to 263 lead overall

    There was a Florida Clinton+5 on Tuesday, but these have pretty tiny sample sizes, margins of error well over 4%.
    RCP now has Trump leading on average in both Florida and Ohio, no Republican since Nixon in 1960 has won those two states and lost the presidency
    538 has Trump winning Ohio and Florida - and losing.
    Yes but he only needs 1 more state beyond those he presently has to win. If higher than expected white working class turnout in any of Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin allows him to win one of those states then he becomes the 45th President of the USA, even if he loses Virginia and Colorado to Hillary
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:


    Florida will now edge to Trump in the RCP average giving Clinton a 275 to 263 lead overall

    There was a Florida Clinton+5 on Tuesday, but these have pretty tiny sample sizes, margins of error well over 4%.
    RCP now has Trump leading on average in both Florida and Ohio, no Republican since Nixon in 1960 has won those two states and lost the presidency
    538 has Trump winning Ohio and Florida - and losing.
    Yes but he only needs 1 more state beyond those he presently has to win. If higher than expected white working class turnout in any of Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin allows him to win one of those states then he becomes the 45th President of the USA, even if he loses Virginia and Colorado to Hillary
    I don't think Trump expects to win Virginia, Colorado or New Hampshire. If he does, he'll already have won the election elsewhere.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    rcs1000 said:

    But the reason for that is because national governments wanted to retain a role, rather than allowing the EU parliament to have additional powers. It is the ugliness of the compromise between a commission appointed by elected national governments and the European parliament that leads to the democratic deficit. You could get rid of the deficit by allowing the EU parliament more powers, but once you do that, you inevitably set the EU on a near irreversible path towards statehood. Let us not forget that the US Congress original power, set up in the constitution, was simply to regulate interstate commerce.

    Although both the common European institutions and the US federal government began life with comparatively limited objectives, I'm not sure that making the direct comparison between their subsequent accrual of power in the way that you appear to do is justified.

    The US was established and explicitly recognised as a federation from its inception, and the rights and limitations of both the federal and state governments codified at the outset. The fact that the federal government was initially minimal and only grew later is not, primarily, the product of centralizing mission creep, but of the changing nature of government itself. The US was founded in the late eighteenth century, when it made perfect sense for the central government to concern itself with defence, diplomacy, the currency, the postal service and very little else (and in comparison to today the states didn't have that much to do, either.)

    The common European institutions, on the other hand, were set up explicitly as a means for sovereign and separate national governments, which were understood to be such, to achieve closer co-operation in areas of common interest, and not as an act of nation-building. Some may argue (and I would concur with them) that the underlying aim of the founders of the European Communities was to drain the life out of elected nation state governments and transfer them upwards to a technocratic, rather than democratic, policy elite. Whatever, the salient point is that the EU has attempted progressively to convert itself into a federal union, despite the fact that its nations are still nominally sovereign, and most of its people do not desire a United States of Europe (even if many of their politicians believe it to be a splendid notion.)

    The US worked because the states agreed at the outset to pool sovereignty as a single federation. The EU isn't working because it tried to force a federalism that was against the popular will upon national electorates by mission creep. The ugly compromise structures of the governance of the EU, and especially of the Eurozone, are the product of this fundamental difference: of consent versus coercion, and of a uniting national spirit versus a mere community of neighbours which, by trying to agree too much amongst itself, merely creates more and more disputes.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334
    edited September 2016



    Yes, I get the Guardian that way - have wondered how much the paper gets from it. Roughly equal stacks with the Mail in my Islington branch. Some Times as well, not much else.

    In Sainsbury in Beeston (the Guardianista part of my old patch, soon to migrate to Nottingham South), I'm told that the Morning Star outsells the Daily Express! Two worlds, eh?

    Is your Islington branch the Angel or the Holloway one?

    I was in the former at lunch, picking up a few odds and ends.
    Holloway. I live above the little Sainsbury on Holloway Road, though I'm moving back to Nottingham next month.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095



    Yes, I get the Guardian that way - have wondered how much the paper gets from it. Roughly equal stacks with the Mail in my Islington branch. Some Times as well, not much else.

    In Sainsbury in Beeston (the Guardianista part of my old patch, soon to migrate to Nottingham South), I'm told that the Morning Star outsells the Daily Express! Two worlds, eh?

    Is your Islington branch the Angel or the Holloway one?

    I was in the former at lunch, picking up a few odds and ends.
    Holloway. I live above the little Sainsbury on Holloway Road, though I'm moving back to Nottingham next month.
    Having another go at Broxtowe?
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    I see May has slapped down Johnson's latest Brexit musings.

    So Fox, Davis and Johnson all "corrected" by Downing Street.

    Is this at all normal? Or are May and the Brexiteers playing a kind of good cop / bad cop routine?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    I see May has slapped down Johnson's latest Brexit musings.

    So Fox, Davis and Johnson all "corrected" by Downing Street.

    Is this at all normal? Or are May and the Brexiteers playing a kind of good cop / bad cop routine?

    Except May herself has said Article 50 would be declared early 2017, which then means a 2019 exit.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited September 2016



    Nah, it's a myth. In truth, you'll be more likely to find PB Tories in Waitrose than in any other food store. They appear to sell around five times as many copies of the Daily Mail there than of any other newspaper.

    It's one of the free ones - if you spend over £5.
    Yes, I get the Guardian that way - have wondered how much the paper gets from it. Roughly equal stacks with the Mail in my Islington branch. Some Times as well, not much else.

    In Sainsbury in Beeston (the Guardianista part of my old patch, soon to migrate to Nottingham South), I'm told that the Morning Star outsells the Daily Express! Two worlds, eh?

    REPLY

    That's true. This Conservative minded voter takes the only paper worth reading.. The Times... when I bother to buy one(or get one free ;) ..) There are loads of Daily Rants being read in the café at my local Waitrose and you can see and pick out the types..

    Daily Mail, best used recycled as bog paper.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    edited September 2016
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:


    Florida will now edge to Trump in the RCP average giving Clinton a 275 to 263 lead overall

    There was a Florida Clinton+5 on Tuesday, but these have pretty tiny sample sizes, margins of error well over 4%.
    RCP now has Trump leading on average in both Florida and Ohio, no Republican since Nixon in 1960 has won those two states and lost the presidency
    538 has Trump winning Ohio and Florida - and losing.
    Yes but he only needs 1 more state beyond those he presently has to win. If higher than expected white working class turnout in any of Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin allows him to win one of those states then he becomes the 45th President of the USA, even if he loses Virginia and Colorado to Hillary
    I don't think Trump expects to win Virginia, Colorado or New Hampshire. If he does, he'll already have won the election elsewhere.
    Indeed, Virginia has the DC suburbs, Colorado lots of graduates and Hispanics and New Hampshire is in New England which make them more favourable to Hillary and the Democrats. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all comprise part of the Rustbelt and like Ohio and Indiana, where Trump now leads, are full of white working class voters angry at globalisation, automation, the outsourcing of their jobs and free trade agreements like NAFTA as well as rising immigration. It is one of those states he is looking at to take him over the top
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:

    Which is of course why the UK voted to get out. We may eventually rejoin EFTA which is more akin to NAFTA and ASEAN and Mercosur than the EU is. Juncker and the EU elites certainly do believe they are creating a new superpower, however the EU population are not as enthusiastic especially in regards to the migration and austerity it brings. The biggest test for the EU may not actually be Brexit or the French or German or Dutch elections next year but the Italian elections in 2018 where the anti Euro 5* presently lead in the second round. If they try to take Italy out of the Eurozone that is when the whole thing could come crashing down!

    Italexit possible sooner if Renzi loses his constitutional ballot. Regardless, there is a school of thought that it is inevitable at some point. Italy's debt to GDP ratio is out of control, and in the long run the country is both too big to bully and too big to bail. But we shall see. The political willpower behind the EU project is enormous, and is still (just about) keeping it on the road, despite the UK leaving - bearing in mind that we haven't really been a part of core Europe since John Major's time.
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    I see May has slapped down Johnson's latest Brexit musings.

    So Fox, Davis and Johnson all "corrected" by Downing Street.

    Is this at all normal? Or are May and the Brexiteers playing a kind of good cop / bad cop routine?

    Far from the full English Brexit promised by La Leadsom, we're getting a dog's Brexit.
  • Options

    I see May has slapped down Johnson's latest Brexit musings.

    So Fox, Davis and Johnson all "corrected" by Downing Street.

    Is this at all normal? Or are May and the Brexiteers playing a kind of good cop / bad cop routine?

    Far from the full English Brexit promised by La Leadsom, we're getting a dog's Brexit.
    Very good.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Chuka Umunna: We Should Be Prepared To Sacrifice Single Market Membership To Axe Freedom Of Movement"

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/chuka-umunna-single-market-free-movement-brexit_uk_57e3e201e4b0db20a6e8b057
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967



    Nah, it's a myth. In truth, you'll be more likely to find PB Tories in Waitrose than in any other food store. They appear to sell around five times as many copies of the Daily Mail there than of any other newspaper.

    It's one of the free ones - if you spend over £5.
    Yes, I get the Guardian that way - have wondered how much the paper gets from it. Roughly equal stacks with the Mail in my Islington branch. Some Times as well, not much else.

    In Sainsbury in Beeston (the Guardianista part of my old patch, soon to migrate to Nottingham South), I'm told that the Morning Star outsells the Daily Express! Two worlds, eh?
    REPLY

    That's true. This Conservative minded voter takes the only paper worth reading.. The Times... when I bother to buy one(or get one free ;) ..) There are loads of Daily Rants being read in the café at my local Waitrose and you can see and pick out the types..

    Daily Mail, best used recycled as bog paper.

    Have been thinking for a while now about getting a Times subscription, especially as the Telegraph has gone down the crapper.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    AndyJS said:

    "Chuka Umunna: We Should Be Prepared To Sacrifice Single Market Membership To Axe Freedom Of Movement"

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/chuka-umunna-single-market-free-movement-brexit_uk_57e3e201e4b0db20a6e8b057

    Eminently sensible I would have thought if Labour wants to keep its white working class Leave voters who have not already defected to UKIP. In any case he clearly wants the UK to stay in the single market, just not if it means no control over free movement at all “If continuation of the free movement we have is the price of Single Market membership then clearly we couldn’t remain in the Single Market, but we are not at that point yet.”

    This just confirms even more in my mind he is the best bet for Labour to return to power in 2025 after a heavy Corbyn/McDonnell defeat, if the Labour membership is willing to return to sanity!
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    FPT - Mike Smithson suggests Lib Dems are under most pressure to perform in Witney, but I'm not so sure. They have been polling 8% nationally for years, so if they do badly again it will be no worse than expected. Labour, on the other hand, bagged nearly 20% of the vote last year. It will be interesting to see if they shed votes, and if they do where these votes end up.

    Labour hasn't very much further to fall in the South outside of London, but a significant drop in support - particularly given that they are the main opposition fighting a government mid-term, and ought therefore to be gaining votes - might help to indicate how vulnerable the remaining Lab-Con marginals already are...
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    AndyJS said:

    "Chuka Umunna: We Should Be Prepared To Sacrifice Single Market Membership To Axe Freedom Of Movement"

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/chuka-umunna-single-market-free-movement-brexit_uk_57e3e201e4b0db20a6e8b057

    I think HMG is hoping this sacred cow is slaughtered similarly quickly in continental Europe through the 2017 elections; hopefully, prior to invoking Article 50.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016

    FPT - Mike Smithson suggests Lib Dems are under most pressure to perform in Witney, but I'm not so sure. They have been polling 8% nationally for years, so if they do badly again it will be no worse than expected. Labour, on the other hand, bagged nearly 20% of the vote last year. It will be interesting to see if they shed votes, and if they do where these votes end up.

    Labour hasn't very much further to fall in the South outside of London, but a significant drop in support - particularly given that they are the main opposition fighting a government mid-term, and ought therefore to be gaining votes - might help to indicate how vulnerable the remaining Lab-Con marginals already are...

    I think Labour will do relatively badly at the Witney by-election, because I think Witney is the sort of constituency where Ed Miliband will have gone down quite well with centre-left voters, whereas Jeremy Corbyn probably won't. I'd be surprised if they don't slip to at least third place.
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    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Very true. They are daft enough to create a major problem for their exporters to the UK.

    Funnily enough, throwing away economic advantage for political reasons is exactly what the EU27 countries think the UK is doing. For that matter, that's also what much of the rest of the world thinks. Who knows which side is daft?

    You mean political reasons such as wanting to govern yourself? That daft democracy idea?
    Thats right. Like the Scots....
    And as I'm sure you recall I was in favour of Scots independence, if that's what they wanted, for precisely those reasons. Sometimes people value independence and self-government more than being richer but with less or no control. The view that Ireland took in the early part of the last century.

    I shouldn't ask, but I can't help myself: did you vote Leave in the end?

    You strike me as someone who really wanted to vote Leave, but actually very reluctantly voted Remain on the day, but are quite glad the nation voted Leave now, even if a little concerned about it.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    "Yahoo confirms that 'state-sponsored actor' stole account information of at least 500m users"

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3802237/Yahoo-provide-details-massive-data-breach-Recode.html
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    AndyJS said:

    "Yahoo confirms that 'state-sponsored actor' stole account information of at least 500m users"

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3802237/Yahoo-provide-details-massive-data-breach-Recode.html

    Isnt that old news. I thought that was why BT dumped them?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Trump tells people leading the war on coal that he will end the war on coal.

    https://twitter.com/MajorCBS/status/778989252134768640?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    MTimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sahil Kapur
    Virginia poll — Roanoke

    Clinton 44% (-4 since mid-Aug)
    Trump 37% (+5)
    Johnson 8% (-)
    Stein 1% (-2)

    2-WAY

    Clinton 51% (-4)
    Trump 40% (+4)

    Key trend: Clinton's PA-CO-VA firewall remains even as she slips elsewhere. If that holds, Trump needs a state like WI or NH to hit 270.

    VA is one Trump won't win, is trending solidly Democrat perhaps more so than any other state.
    It's all the government employees in NoVa and the military's nervousness about Trump in both NoVa and Tidewater.

    While I agree that Va is trending Dem, don't forget they almost lost the gubernatorial vote in 2013 in a squeaker, with a no-name GOPer ahead against a national name Dem (McAuliffe) until the very last of the NoVa districts came in. Final result Dem 47.75%. GOP 45.23%, Libertarian 6.52%. With a good GOP candidate that pulls in the libertarian vote, this state is still winnable for the GOP, if an uphill battle.
    Dem voters are lazy and only turnout for Presidential elections. The last non-pres election they turned out for was 2006.

    Which makes Trump's rustbelt strategy of targetting Dem voters from the lowest turnout group so risky.
    Almost as crazy as Leave targeting Labour voters from the lowest turnout group!
    anyway the polling indicates the Dems that are switching to Trump are the over 65's who always vote.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    edited September 2016
    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:



    RCP now has Trump leading on average in both Florida and Ohio, no Republican since Nixon in 1960 has won those two states and lost the presidency

    Indeed - but even if Trump takes both, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona he still comes up short.

    Virginia makes things awfully difficult for him.
    VA won't be the key state, CO, MI, WI, PA and probably NH all more GOP than VA on the night no matter the result I reckon.
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    Brexit: a very British coup on BBC2 now
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    Brexit: a very British coup on BBC2 now

    Ta!
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited September 2016
    The least worst centre left response to Brexit I seen yet. It's still utterly awful but counts as progress on a few fronts. http://labourlist.org/2016/09/steve-reed-the-people-chose-brexit-so-we-must-show-them-labours-vision-of-taking-back-control-in-british-politics/
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    Brexit: a very British coup on BBC2 now

    Farage and Fox looking quite chummy.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992

    Brexit: a very British coup on BBC2 now

    Thanks, just tuned in
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Yeah, but this one was actually funny.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    MTimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sahil Kapur
    Virginia poll — Roanoke

    Clinton 44% (-4 since mid-Aug)
    Trump 37% (+5)
    Johnson 8% (-)
    Stein 1% (-2)

    2-WAY

    Clinton 51% (-4)
    Trump 40% (+4)

    Key trend: Clinton's PA-CO-VA firewall remains even as she slips elsewhere. If that holds, Trump needs a state like WI or NH to hit 270.

    VA is one Trump won't win, is trending solidly Democrat perhaps more so than any other state.
    It's all the government employees in NoVa and the military's nervousness about Trump in both NoVa and Tidewater.

    While I agree that Va is trending Dem, don't forget they almost lost the gubernatorial vote in 2013 in a squeaker, with a no-name GOPer ahead against a national name Dem (McAuliffe) until the very last of the NoVa districts came in. Final result Dem 47.75%. GOP 45.23%, Libertarian 6.52%. With a good GOP candidate that pulls in the libertarian vote, this state is still winnable for the GOP, if an uphill battle.
    Dem voters are lazy and only turnout for Presidential elections. The last non-pres election they turned out for was 2006.

    Which makes Trump's rustbelt strategy of targetting Dem voters from the lowest turnout group so risky.
    Almost as crazy as Leave targeting Labour voters from the lowest turnout group!
    anyway the polling indicates the Dems that are switching to Trump are the over 65's who always vote.
    More middle aged white working class non college graduates living in the rustbelt
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    edited September 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    There were some people in Hollywood who backed Brexit (Joan Collins, Ringo Starr and Sharon Osborne to name but three) and some like Clint Eastwood, Scott Baio and Kelsey Grammar are backing Trump, although they are of course very much a minority
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Pulpstar said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:



    RCP now has Trump leading on average in both Florida and Ohio, no Republican since Nixon in 1960 has won those two states and lost the presidency

    Indeed - but even if Trump takes both, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona he still comes up short.

    Virginia makes things awfully difficult for him.
    VA won't be the key state, CO, MI, WI, PA and probably NH all more GOP than VA on the night no matter the result I reckon.
    Agree with the exception of MI.
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    The move by a series of ambitious Blairite and modernisers curled with today's Sennedd vote suggests Labour is converging on May's ' immigration control first ' negotiating strategy.This is doubtless after a Summer talking to constituents in big Leave areas and realising voters won't budge now there world view has been validated in a national referendum. So the tiny chance of us remaining a member of the Single Market vanishes entirely. To the best of my knowledge no advanced, consumerist democracy has ever deliberately chosen to be slightly but permanently poorer before to further a noneconomic goal. The nearest but inexact comparison would be the catastrophic occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq. Neither is a happy precident. This is going to be interesting as they say.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Landmark WTO ruling. EU told to get fucked, mega win for the US.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    Landmark WTO ruling. EU told to get fucked, mega win for the US.


    Link?

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    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    Thank you for reinforcing my point.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    MaxPB said:

    Landmark WTO ruling. EU told to get fucked, mega win for the US.


    Link?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/22/transatlantic-trade-war-in-the-offing-after-boeing-claims-victor/
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    Landmark WTO ruling. EU told to get fucked, mega win for the US.


    Link?

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-gave-billions-in-illegal-subsidies-to-airbus-wto-rules-1474554683
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    edited September 2016

    The move by a series of ambitious Blairite and modernisers curled with today's Sennedd vote suggests Labour is converging on May's ' immigration control first ' negotiating strategy.This is doubtless after a Summer talking to constituents in big Leave areas and realising voters won't budge now there world view has been validated in a national referendum. So the tiny chance of us remaining a member of the Single Market vanishes entirely. To the best of my knowledge no advanced, consumerist democracy has ever deliberately chosen to be slightly but permanently poorer before to further a noneconomic goal. The nearest but inexact comparison would be the catastrophic occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq. Neither is a happy precident. This is going to be interesting as they say.

    What about Greece and Syriza? The US may choose to do so in just a few weeks time if Trump wins and takes the US out of NAFTA and the WTO as he may well do. Who knows what will happen if Wilders, or Le Pen or Beppe Grillo win in the next few years too.

    In any case the polling is quite clear, UK voters prioritise controlling migration over the Single Market and that applies to Tory, Labour, UKIP and even SNP voters. Only LD and Green voters back the single market over immigration controls. Voters want a free trade deal of some sort but migration controls too

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/772705722073280512
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    AndyJS said:

    "Yahoo confirms that 'state-sponsored actor' stole account information of at least 500m users"

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3802237/Yahoo-provide-details-massive-data-breach-Recode.html

    Isnt that old news. I thought that was why BT dumped them?
    Yes but the new news is that the breach is worse than first thought because Yahoo stored security questions and answers unencrypted. Just think about that for a minute, The hacker could phone your bank, credit card people or anyone else and (probably) get through the security questions -- because different companies tend to use variations on the same themes. It used to be your mother's maiden name, now it is more likely to be things like your first car or favourite sports team (which in America is basically asking which state you live in).
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    Or they could avoid doing self-delaying videos or giving speeches to the U.N. to demonstrate how worthy they are and go and engage with the concerns of normal people
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    "ilk" doesn't mean what you think it means. A mistake frequently made by the illiterate and ill-educated.
    :lol:
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    Yes they should. It's much more fun.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Ishmael_X said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    "ilk" doesn't mean what you think it means. A mistake frequently made by the illiterate and ill-educated.
    :lol:
    Can't believe you used an emoticon in reply to tyson, you monster.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    The move by a series of ambitious Blairite and modernisers curled with today's Sennedd vote suggests Labour is converging on May's ' immigration control first ' negotiating strategy.This is doubtless after a Summer talking to constituents in big Leave areas and realising voters won't budge now there world view has been validated in a national referendum. So the tiny chance of us remaining a member of the Single Market vanishes entirely. To the best of my knowledge no advanced, consumerist democracy has ever deliberately chosen to be slightly but permanently poorer before to further a noneconomic goal. The nearest but inexact comparison would be the catastrophic occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq. Neither is a happy precident. This is going to be interesting as they say.

    The nearest but inexact comparison for a coercive union between disparate states under a technocratic ruling elite is the Soviet Union. That didn't end well either.

    Brexit has at least the potential to deliver greater prosperity in the longer term. It's all a question of timescales.
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    RobD said:

    Thanks. Seems like they're both at it, though.

  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    RobD said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    "ilk" doesn't mean what you think it means. A mistake frequently made by the illiterate and ill-educated.
    :lol:
    Can't believe you used an emoticon in reply to tyson, you monster.
    :lol::lol:
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Ishmael_X said:

    RobD said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    "ilk" doesn't mean what you think it means. A mistake frequently made by the illiterate and ill-educated.
    :lol:
    Can't believe you used an emoticon in reply to tyson, you monster.
    :lol::lol:
    They are replicating.....
  • Options
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    We have to behave more like Brexiters. Fight fire with fire. And we need new alliances. They'll be plenty of people who voted Leave who'll be horrified when the mob comes for them. Which it will in due course.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ishmael_X said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    "ilk" doesn't mean what you think it means. A mistake frequently made by the illiterate and ill-educated.
    :lol:
    Ivanka's not horrible :)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Congratulations to barrister @robertcourts the new Conservative PPC for Witney - decent chance of becoming an MP
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Ishmael_X said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    "ilk" doesn't mean what you think it means. A mistake frequently made by the illiterate and ill-educated.
    :lol:
    Perhaps the tedious twat means oik?

    :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:
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    BBC2 doc is all about Farage, and massively BBC. All about comic dumb amateur Leavers on the street against depressed sober Remainers in the capital.

    The bias is oozing out of it.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    There were some people in Hollywood who backed Brexit (Joan Collins, Ringo Starr and Sharon Osborne to name but three) and some like Clint Eastwood, Scott Baio and Kelsey Grammar are backing Trump, although they are of course very much a minority
    Don't forget about Chuck Norris and Steven Seagal backing Trump.
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    Ishmael_X said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    "ilk" doesn't mean what you think it means. A mistake frequently made by the illiterate and ill-educated.
    :lol:
    An ilk is a sick moose, right?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Congratulations to barrister @robertcourts the new Conservative PPC for Witney - decent chance of becoming an MP

    Only decent? Has Islam lost his marbles?
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    The move by a series of ambitious Blairite and modernisers curled with today's Sennedd vote suggests Labour is converging on May's ' immigration control first ' negotiating strategy.This is doubtless after a Summer talking to constituents in big Leave areas and realising voters won't budge now there world view has been validated in a national referendum. So the tiny chance of us remaining a member of the Single Market vanishes entirely. To the best of my knowledge no advanced, consumerist democracy has ever deliberately chosen to be slightly but permanently poorer before to further a noneconomic goal. The nearest but inexact comparison would be the catastrophic occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq. Neither is a happy precident. This is going to be interesting as they say.

    What about Greece and Syriza? The US may choose to do so in just a few weeks time if Trump wins and takes the US out of NAFTA and the WTO as he may well do. Who knows what will happen if Wilders, or Le Pen or Beppe Grillo win in the next few years too.

    In any case the polling is quite clear, UK voters prioritise controlling migration over the Single Market and that applies to Tory, Labour, UKIP and even SNP voters. Only LD and Green voters back the single market over immigration controls. Voters want a free trade deal of some sort but migration controls too

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/772705722073280512
    Greece and Syriza backed down. The other examples are valid but haven't happened yet. But you are completely correct to suggest we may be seeing a west wide trend of turning on the architecture that's made us all rich and free.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,280

    The move by a series of ambitious Blairite and modernisers curled with today's Sennedd vote suggests Labour is converging on May's ' immigration control first ' negotiating strategy.This is doubtless after a Summer talking to constituents in big Leave areas and realising voters won't budge now there world view has been validated in a national referendum. So the tiny chance of us remaining a member of the Single Market vanishes entirely. To the best of my knowledge no advanced, consumerist democracy has ever deliberately chosen to be slightly but permanently poorer before to further a noneconomic goal. The nearest but inexact comparison would be the catastrophic occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq. Neither is a happy precident. This is going to be interesting as they say.

    There are a number of assumptions built into your post which may or may not be vindicated in due course.

    Membership of the single market requires membership of the customs union of the EU which in turn presumes a waiver of our right to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world independently.

    It may be that that is a good trade off for the U.K. but it is by no means assured. It depends upon a trade off between EU trade and world trade. EU trade is the smaller proportion of our trade already and the trends are not in its favour.

    If the price of membership of the single market is open boundaries it is not a price the majority are willing to pay. Turning down membership of the single market does not mean turning down free trade with it although I accept it will be less free involving customs costs such as proof of origin of UK goods. If that is the price of control of free movement then we simply have to hope that the opportunities of negotiating our own trade will set off any marginal loss arising from marginal cost in our trade with the EU.
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    BBC2 doc is all about Farage, and massively BBC. All about comic dumb amateur Leavers on the street against depressed sober Remainers in the capital.

    The bias is oozing out of it.

    They'll be making that documentary for decades. On the 30th anniversary they'll be comparing the living standards and visuals of Leaverstan and A8 countries.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TelePolitics: Millionaire Ukip donor Paul Sykes announces plans to defect to Tories following Brexit telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/2…
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    BBC2 doc is all about Farage, and massively BBC. All about comic dumb amateur Leavers on the street against depressed sober Remainers in the capital.

    The bias is oozing out of it.

    Will Straw is such an annoying prat. Quite telling that he has been excluded from the BSE rebrand.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    edited September 2016

    HYUFD said:

    The move by a series of ambitious Blairite and modernisers curled with today's Sennedd vote suggests Labour is converging on May's ' immigration control first ' negotiating strategy.This is doubtless after a Summer talking to constituents in big Leave areas and realising voters won't budge now there world view has been validated in a national referendum. So the tiny chance of us remaining a member of the Single Market vanishes entirely. To the best of my knowledge no advanced, consumerist democracy has ever deliberately chosen to be slightly but permanently poorer before to further a noneconomic goal. The nearest but inexact comparison would be the catastrophic occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq. Neither is a happy precident. This is going to be interesting as they say.

    What about Greece and Syriza? The US may choose to do so in just a few weeks time if Trump wins and takes the US out of NAFTA and the WTO as he may well do. Who knows what will happen if Wilders, or Le Pen or Beppe Grillo win in the next few years too.

    In any case the polling is quite clear, UK voters prioritise controlling migration over the Single Market and that applies to Tory, Labour, UKIP and even SNP voters. Only LD and Green voters back the single market over immigration controls. Voters want a free trade deal of some sort but migration controls too

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/772705722073280512
    Greece and Syriza backed down. The other examples are valid but haven't happened yet. But you are completely correct to suggest we may be seeing a west wide trend of turning on the architecture that's made us all rich and free.
    They were still voted in in the first place. Of course Switzerland and Norway voted against ever joining the EU at all. However as you say the next few years will be a rollercoaster ride

    Nicholas Soames shared many of your concerns about the consequences of Brexit for the country just now on the EU ref documentary. Duncan predicted a narrow Remain win as did Leave backing hedge funder Crispin Odey in his final polls
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    Thank you for reinforcing my point.
    The problem is Casino, as we will see with Corbyn's election...is that the numbers do not stack up. There are too many morons..as with Brexit. Because a vote is won doesn't make it right.

    It's a difficult time at the minute for a passionate liberal, open minded, human rights, internationalist, collective advocate like myself..the tide is against me. But I know that ultimately the tide will come back, and the nasty, xenophobic, lowest common denominator crap that is pervading modern politics will be washed down the toilet of history where it belongs, and where it has been washed down before...
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited September 2016

    RobD said:

    Thanks. Seems like they're both at it, though.

    This is as old as Airbus. Even back in business school in 1990 we looked at the claims and counter-claims. US claims government direct subsidies of Airbus, EU claims US government does the same but disguises it as defence contracts.

    PS In American Football there is a useful concept applicable here - off-setting penalties.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    MP_SE said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    There were some people in Hollywood who backed Brexit (Joan Collins, Ringo Starr and Sharon Osborne to name but three) and some like Clint Eastwood, Scott Baio and Kelsey Grammar are backing Trump, although they are of course very much a minority
    Don't forget about Chuck Norris and Steven Seagal backing Trump.
    Yes, action stars always lean more to the right, see Arnie too
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    AndyJS said:

    "Chuka Umunna: We Should Be Prepared To Sacrifice Single Market Membership To Axe Freedom Of Movement"

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/chuka-umunna-single-market-free-movement-brexit_uk_57e3e201e4b0db20a6e8b057

    I think HMG is hoping this sacred cow is slaughtered similarly quickly in continental Europe through the 2017 elections; hopefully, prior to invoking Article 50.
    If the Government are then, I fear, they are liable to be disappointed. The rest of the EU *might* be prepared to take a few lessons from Britain on what to do about refugees, but the four freedoms for EU citizens and businesses are as totemic for the EU as the Euro project, if not more so.

    I gain the impression that continental politicians - the great majority of whom face being totally discredited and seeing much of their life's work ruined if the EU fails - fear that any compromise on fundamental principles will lead to the whole edifice falling down. They've been trying hard enough - albeit stopping short of what's needed to apply a permanent fix - to save the rotten Euro. I certainly don't see them yielding an inch on the four freedoms.
  • Options

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    We have to behave more like Brexiters. Fight fire with fire. And we need new alliances. They'll be plenty of people who voted Leave who'll be horrified when the mob comes for them. Which it will in due course.
    It's already at their door. Most of them seem to be acquiescing with the idea of leaving the single market, even though they always claimed that the EEC option would be an easy formality, without thinking about the political dynamics involved.
  • Options
    Ah, the heady days when Brexit meant..er..something different from what it means today. What will tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow bring?!

    https://twitter.com/BBCJLandale/status/779031409239425025
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    Thank you for reinforcing my point.
    The problem is Casino, as we will see with Corbyn's election...is that the numbers do not stack up. There are too many morons..as with Brexit. Because a vote is won doesn't make it right.

    It's a difficult time at the minute for a passionate liberal, open minded, human rights, internationalist, collective advocate like myself..the tide is against me. But I know that ultimately the tide will come back, and the nasty, xenophobic, lowest common denominator crap that is pervading modern politics will be washed down the toilet of history where it belongs, and where it has been washed down before...
    A few years from now, you'll be one of us.

    "Two gin-scented tears flowed down the side of his nose. But, it was all right now. Everything was going to be all right. Tyson had won the victory over himself. He loved Donald Trump."
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    DavidL said:

    The move by a series of ambitious Blairite and modernisers curled with today's Sennedd vote suggests Labour is converging on May's ' immigration control first ' negotiating strategy.This is doubtless after a Summer talking to constituents in big Leave areas and realising voters won't budge now there world view has been validated in a national referendum. So the tiny chance of us remaining a member of the Single Market vanishes entirely. To the best of my knowledge no advanced, consumerist democracy has ever deliberately chosen to be slightly but permanently poorer before to further a noneconomic goal. The nearest but inexact comparison would be the catastrophic occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq. Neither is a happy precident. This is going to be interesting as they say.

    There are a number of assumptions built into your post which may or may not be vindicated in due course.

    Membership of the single market requires membership of the customs union of the EU which in turn presumes a waiver of our right to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world independently.

    It may be that that is a good trade off for the U.K. but it is by no means assured. It depends upon a trade off between EU trade and world trade. EU trade is the smaller proportion of our trade already and the trends are not in its favour.

    If the price of membership of the single market is open boundaries it is not a price the majority are willing to pay. Turning down membership of the single market does not mean turning down free trade with it although I accept it will be less free involving customs costs such as proof of origin of UK goods. If that is the price of control of free movement then we simply have to hope that the opportunities of negotiating our own trade will set off any marginal loss arising from marginal cost in our trade with the EU.
    I agree with your analysis. I'm extremely gloomy that a protectionist and insular event like the Leave vote will translate into a burst of freer trade with the rest of the world. I'm as certain as I can be that even if I'm wrong on point one that Leaverstan will be devastated by turbo charged globalisation after having voted against Free Range European globalisation. But you are right about my assumptions and I agree with your analysis of the trade offs at play.
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    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Congratulations to barrister @robertcourts the new Conservative PPC for Witney - decent chance of becoming an MP

    Only decent? Has Islam lost his marbles?
    Remember before Dave, Witney had a Labour MP.

    People forget and underestimate the awesomeness of Dave.
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    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    Thank you for reinforcing my point.
    The problem is Casino, as we will see with Corbyn's election...is that the numbers do not stack up. There are too many morons..as with Brexit. Because a vote is won doesn't make it right.

    It's a difficult time at the minute for a passionate liberal, open minded, human rights, internationalist, collective advocate like myself..the tide is against me. But I know that ultimately the tide will come back, and the nasty, xenophobic, lowest common denominator crap that is pervading modern politics will be washed down the toilet of history where it belongs, and where it has been washed down before...
    Yes, but you are also a bit of a dick yourself, aren't you?

    I've always thought that your biggest problem is that there is a part of yourself you really don't like.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Congratulations to barrister @robertcourts the new Conservative PPC for Witney - decent chance of becoming an MP

    Only decent? Has Islam lost his marbles?
    Remember before Dave, Witney had a Labour MP.

    People forget and underestimate the awesomeness of Dave.
    I think you are bing a little naughty, TSE ;)
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    BBC2 doc is all about Farage, and massively BBC. All about comic dumb amateur Leavers on the street against depressed sober Remainers in the capital.

    The bias is oozing out of it.

    They'll be making that documentary for decades. On the 30th anniversary they'll be comparing the living standards and visuals of Leaverstan and A8 countries.
    I hope they do.

    I think we have an amazing future.
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    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Congratulations to barrister @robertcourts the new Conservative PPC for Witney - decent chance of becoming an MP

    Only decent? Has Islam lost his marbles?
    Remember before Dave, Witney had a Labour MP.

    People forget and underestimate the awesomeness of Dave.
    You could say Witney's had a Blairite MP since 1997.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Blimey, who's this bloke on the referendum documentary who made a fortune?!
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    I assume the PB African American Rampers for Trump have been spamming posting this on PB?

    Trump campaign chair in Ohio resigns over ‘no racism before Obama' remarks

    Kathy Miller, chair in a crucial Ohio county, resigned after the Guardian released video of her saying, ‘It’s their own fault’ if black people haven’t succeeded

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/22/trump-campaign-chair-kathy-miller-resigns-ohio-racism-obama
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    tlg86 said:

    Blimey, who's this bloke on the referendum documentary who made a fortune?!

    The real question - was he reading PB? ;)
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    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I see a load of Hollywood actors have done a Democrat vid.

    Another shade of Brexit...

    Jesus. Don't they ever learn?
    What are people who are culturally literate, creative, intelligent, vibrant, open minded to do? Just not say anything.

    Or should they all sink to the murky, populist, nihilistic, lowest common denominator, ill educated, nasty crowd and cheer on lying morons.. and join the likes of.Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Climate change conspiracists and their horrible, horrible ilk.......
    Thank you for reinforcing my point.
    The problem is Casino, as we will see with Corbyn's election...is that the numbers do not stack up. There are too many morons..as with Brexit. Because a vote is won doesn't make it right.

    It's a difficult time at the minute for a passionate liberal, open minded, human rights, internationalist, collective advocate like myself..the tide is against me. But I know that ultimately the tide will come back, and the nasty, xenophobic, lowest common denominator crap that is pervading modern politics will be washed down the toilet of history where it belongs, and where it has been washed down before...
    Spot on. There are a number of inexact but really striking parallels between the Leave event and the Corbyn phenomenon. One reason I'm not arguing for a second referendum.
This discussion has been closed.