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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn has clearly won – the big question is the size of hi

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn has clearly won – the big question is the size of his victory

According to punters at least there is absolutely no doubt about who will be announced as winner of the LAB leadership contest on Saturday. The controversial incumbent looks set for victory and clearly his supporters will be hoping that his vote share is above or equal to the 59% of 2015.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • First, like Corbyn.
  • I do remember Remain hitting around 90% on Betfair :)
  • I was robbed...
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Just seen on 538 why Ohio is leaning Trump and Pennselvania is in Hillary's firewall:
    State College Non college
    Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
    Penn 44.4% 35.9%

    an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,143
    The Kuenssberg, quote is just utterly, utterly, depressing. He has learned not one single thing since taking office. If anything he has regressed. Surrounding himself with true believers from his cult, is doing him no good, but he is far too stupid and easily manipulated he can't see it.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    most on here have already found this but this is fun to play around with

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,536
    FPT: Witney

    Eh, leaving aside the problem of hanging everything on one constituency I'd say vote share is more important than place.

    Sub 5= disaster
    5 - 10= status quo
    10- 15= good growth
    15- 20= Excellent fightback
    20+= Major gain
  • saddened said:

    The Kuenssberg, quote is just utterly, utterly, depressing. He has learned not one single thing since taking office. If anything he has regressed. Surrounding himself with true believers from his cult, is doing him no good, but he is far too stupid and easily manipulated he can't see it.

    The man is incapable of learning. He has learnt nothing since about 1978.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,283
    I think it'll be close to 70-30 for Corbyn.
  • Rogueywon said:

    I do remember Remain hitting around 90% on Betfair :)

    Oh, cheeky!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,242
    nunu said:

    Just seen on 538 why Ohio is leaning Trump and Pennselvania is in Hillary's firewall:
    State College Non college
    Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
    Penn 44.4% 35.9%

    an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.

    That has puzzled me, too.

    RCP now has Trump on 266-272 Clinton, but Florida is on a knife edge and the remaining States look okay for her.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,283
    nunu said:

    Just seen on 538 why Ohio is leaning Trump and Pennselvania is in Hillary's firewall:
    State College Non college
    Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
    Penn 44.4% 35.9%

    an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.

    Ohio also doesn't have as huge a super-metro area as Philadelphia and its suburbs (and in the US, like everywhere, the white working-class in big cities are more likely to stick with the traditional centre-left party than white working-class voters elsewhere).
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,049
    Tories in power until at least 2025. That's what Corbyn winning means.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,267
    Labour, condemned to the Corbyn of history.
  • Prominent Labour MPs are set to reject a return to the front bench if Jeremy Corbyn wins Saturday’s leadership battle and fails to accept elections to the shadow cabinet.

    Corbyn’s team have conducted a series of meetings over the past four weeks in a bid to persuade rebel MPs to join his team and end the doubling-up of jobs that has been necessary since the rash of resignations that followed the Brexit vote.

    But many say they have either have not been approached or would refuse to serve without a mandate from their colleagues in the parliamentary Labour party (PLP) – and are readying themselves for what one called “coexistence” with Corbyn from the backbenches.

    “I would be surprised if he gets more than a dozen,” said one senior party source, adding that there were more than 60 unfilled posts.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/22/labour-mp-prepare-coexist-jeremy-corbyn-leadership-backbench
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913
    Scott_P said:
    Turning out quite fun, this, and I don't even watch GBBO. As has been noted, the basic format is pretty darn simple, and we've seen with Top Gear you are more than able to do essentially the same thing with the same people and call it something else, so why not with GBBO?
  • Rogueywon said:

    I do remember Remain hitting around 90% on Betfair :)

    Over 90%, to be fair that was after Farage had conceded defeat.
  • Jonathan said:

    Labour, condemned to the Corbyn of history.

    LOL.

    But we are the unions, that never have spoken yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913
    Clearly most will rally round. What's the alternative? Most won't have the stomach for continued defiance, at least not immediately, they dare not actually break away, others may well truly feel that since the members have confirmed they are bonkers this is the way it has to be, or that Corbyn's dominance proves he is, despite appearances, up the job, and a bunch others will pretend they never said he was no good or his ideas bad, because unity is more important than their own consistency.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Turning out quite fun, this, and I don't even watch GBBO. As has been noted, the basic format is pretty darn simple, and we've seen with Top Gear you are more than able to do essentially the same thing with the same people and call it something else, so why not with GBBO?
    I think I posted the other day that Ch4 had made one of the biggest cockups in broadcasting contract history by failing to secure the presenters before announcing the big win. Whoops.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913

    saddened said:

    The Kuenssberg, quote is just utterly, utterly, depressing. He has learned not one single thing since taking office. If anything he has regressed. Surrounding himself with true believers from his cult, is doing him no good, but he is far too stupid and easily manipulated he can't see it.

    The man is incapable of learning. He has learnt nothing since about 1978.
    Broadly true, but in fairness, he has actually gotten marginally better presentationally in the last year, he's improved a bit in how he has played the game on a few occasions. Not often and not well, but occasionally.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,848

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Turning out quite fun, this, and I don't even watch GBBO. As has been noted, the basic format is pretty darn simple, and we've seen with Top Gear you are more than able to do essentially the same thing with the same people and call it something else, so why not with GBBO?
    I think I posted the other day that Ch4 had made one of the biggest cockups in broadcasting contract history by failing to secure the presenters before announcing the big win. Whoops.
    I also think this opens the door to their privatisation. If they want to compete with the public broadcaster on commercial terms (money) then they should be a fully commercial broadcaster.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited September 2016
    nunu said:

    Just seen on 538 why Ohio is leaning Trump and Pennselvania is in Hillary's firewall:
    State College Non college
    Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
    Penn 44.4% 35.9%

    an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.

    33.3% of the electorate are wwc non college and the higher a state is above that figure generally the more likely it is to vote for Trump and the lower it is below that figure the more likely it is to vote for Hillary so Pennsylvania is almost bang on the US average (it actually has 33.4% wwc non college educated) and hence is one of the pivotal states of the election
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FPT

    BBC News today also featuring the police shootings of black people. Note that tonight's 10pm news said it was a matter of race, but omitted the fact that in Charlotte the policeman who fired the shot is also black.

    I suppose you could make the case that black policemen have become normalised to expect and stereotype black people as criminals.

    Whether the (innocent) black person who was shot in Charlotte was merely exercising his constitutional second ammendment rights, or the gun was planted, it was a case of trigger happy cops, and another dead black person.

    Though of course policing in a gun crazy America would make anyone a little twitchy with the trigger finger.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,267
    edited September 2016
    Disgruntled Labour MPs have the perfect role model to follow. Just do what Corbyn did under Kinnock and Blair.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    In his interview last night Corbyn praised Foot but said he would do 'even better', so Corbyn's benchmark it would seem is beating the 209 seats and 28% Foot got in 1983
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sean_F said:

    nunu said:

    Just seen on 538 why Ohio is leaning Trump and Pennselvania is in Hillary's firewall:
    State College Non college
    Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
    Penn 44.4% 35.9%

    an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.

    That has puzzled me, too.

    RCP now has Trump on 266-272 Clinton, but Florida is on a knife edge and the remaining States look okay for her.
    with those kind of numbers maybe it shouldn't be seen as a rust belt state anymore more a north east state? I don't know.
  • Rogueywon said:

    I do remember Remain hitting around 90% on Betfair :)

    Over 90%, to be fair that was after Farage had conceded defeat.
    The first or second time he did?
  • kle4 said:

    saddened said:

    The Kuenssberg, quote is just utterly, utterly, depressing. He has learned not one single thing since taking office. If anything he has regressed. Surrounding himself with true believers from his cult, is doing him no good, but he is far too stupid and easily manipulated he can't see it.

    The man is incapable of learning. He has learnt nothing since about 1978.
    Broadly true, but in fairness, he has actually gotten marginally better presentationally in the last year, he's improved a bit in how he has played the game on a few occasions. Not often and not well, but occasionally.
    Whoopee!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,971
    If the rebels had an ounce of sense they would recognise that if Corby wins confortably then they need to wait until he loses in a GE. They have gained absolutely nothing from a whole summer on fruitless manoeuvre.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,746
    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?
  • Jonathan said:

    Disgruntled Labour MPs have the perfect role model to follow. Just do what Corbyn did under Kinnock and Blair.

    :+1:
  • SeanT said:

    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?

    I tempted to say 'Oh sod off', but in a nice way.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,704
    Danny565 said:

    I think it'll be close to 70-30 for Corbyn.

    I agree. Smith was a remarkable find: someone even more incompetent and useless than Corbyn. Who would have thought that even possible let alone that that would be Labours alternative.
  • Rogueywon said:

    I do remember Remain hitting around 90% on Betfair :)

    Over 90%, to be fair that was after Farage had conceded defeat.
    The first or second time he did?
    First time, around 10.10pm on June 23rd
  • Disgraceful....yet another thread goes by and not on GBBO....given the amount of coverage on the BBC, I have to conclude it is the most important story in the world.

    Oh and last like Owen Thingy...
  • SeanT said:

    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?

    Do it
  • Disgraceful....yet another thread goes by and not on GBBO....given the amount of coverage on the BBC, I have to conclude it is the most important story in the world.

    Oh and last like Owen Thingy...

    One of my Sunday thread's talks about the GBBO, it also contains possibly my most mind bleaching awful PB headline
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913

    kle4 said:

    saddened said:

    The Kuenssberg, quote is just utterly, utterly, depressing. He has learned not one single thing since taking office. If anything he has regressed. Surrounding himself with true believers from his cult, is doing him no good, but he is far too stupid and easily manipulated he can't see it.

    The man is incapable of learning. He has learnt nothing since about 1978.
    Broadly true, but in fairness, he has actually gotten marginally better presentationally in the last year, he's improved a bit in how he has played the game on a few occasions. Not often and not well, but occasionally.
    Whoopee!
    Not saying that's good for anyone who wants Labour to win, but I'm surprised he has shown marginal capacity for flexibility at all.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,417
    Corbyn is damaged goods for the country at large. Labour can't convincingly unite around him, too much water under the bridge. The best thing for PLP now is drop all opposition, on the condition with Corbyn that he stands down in 2017/18 or so (call it health issues) to be replaced by his chosen successor (or a battle of fresh Corbynistas only). PLP unites round new Corynista for the GE 2020, giving Corbynism a fair hearing, probable (but not inevitable) defeat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    I think it'll be close to 70-30 for Corbyn.

    I agree. Smith was a remarkable find: someone even more incompetent and useless than Corbyn. Who would have thought that even possible let alone that that would be Labours alternative.
    The only plausible alternative to Corbyn now before the next general election is McDonnell
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,971

    Rogueywon said:

    I do remember Remain hitting around 90% on Betfair :)

    Over 90%, to be fair that was after Farage had conceded defeat.
    The first or second time he did?
    First time, around 10.10pm on June 23rd
    Around the same time that, separately, each of IDS, Gove and Boris did the same...
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,827
    edited September 2016
    "Sadly for everyone" Sounds like even Jeremy doesn't like Jeremy. Jeremy spoke in class today ...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,114
    He will lead Labour.. to a thumping defeat.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,827
    SeanT said:

    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?

    Go. Some of Australia's very best wines come from Margaret River and thereabouts.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,746

    SeanT said:

    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?

    Do it
    I'd have forgiven you for saying "Do one" instead.

    The only problem with saying Yes to the Oz trip is that I either have to give up an exclusive view of the new Lascaux exhibition in the Dordogne, or a luxury trip to Rome, dining at the Hassler etc.

    My life is one endless series of dilemmas. I yearn for simplicity.

    *cough*
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,485
    @Casino.....please give me one personal insult I have labelled at you.....

    I don't think I have ever made one individual, unpleasant, personal comment to another, individual poster on the twelve years or so I have posted here. I once said to Plato that I find politically ideological right wing women sexually repellant or repulsive or both (which is true on my part but each to his own)...which she took quite badly...or maybe something obliquely to seanT (I think I've called him a narcissist which is stating the bleeding obvious)- but my insults never play the person......


  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2016
    Also FPT
    HYUFD said:

    I know you have to treat the Daily Express as the ultimate Brexit paper but they are reporting Developing Countries and others are losing interest in trade deals with the EU on UK's exit. Very interesting if true and when you think about it it does make sense

    So we are joining the Third world? Or at least Leaverstan is....
    Actually Leaverstan now does not just include much of the provincial UK but the southern and rustbelt states of the US voting for Trump, most of the depressed industrial areas of France voting for Le Pen etc. Indeed London, Paris and New York and LA now have more in common with each other than London does with the North East, Paris with the Pas de Calais and New York with West Virginia and Ohio. Never have the west's most prosperous cities and their suburbs been so divorced from the rest of the country
    I think that is more or less correct. The effect of globalisation (and the free marketeers of Brexit are in the driving seat) is to reduce inter-country inequality at the price of increasing intra-country inequality.

    Already the wealthy Chinese students that I pass in the streets of Leicester have more in common with the British undergraduates, than the British undergraduates have with the benighted of Benefit Street.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    Just seen on 538 why Ohio is leaning Trump and Pennselvania is in Hillary's firewall:
    State College Non college
    Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
    Penn 44.4% 35.9%

    an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.

    33.3% of the electorate are wwc non college and the higher a state is above that figure generally the more likely it is to vote for Trump and the lower it is below that figure the more likely it is to vote for Hillary so Pennsylvania is almost bang on the US average (it actually has 33.4% wwc non college educated) and hence is one of the pivotal states of the election
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
    but you have to remember Clinto is winning a group (white college educated) that Repubs normally win.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,827
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?

    Do it
    I'd have forgiven you for saying "Do one" instead.

    The only problem with saying Yes to the Oz trip is that I either have to give up an exclusive view of the new Lascaux exhibition in the Dordogne, or a luxury trip to Rome, dining at the Hassler etc.

    My life is one endless series of dilemmas. I yearn for simplicity.

    *cough*
    Ah, well, that is different. Given those choices, even though I have not been to either Rome (amazingly enough) or Western Australia and I have been to Lascaux, I'd choose Lascaux.

    You look at those 30,000 year old paintings and know that early human was every bit as intellectual as modern man, just with a bit less technology.

    Of course, no good wine or food in the Dardogne (cough).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,887

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Turning out quite fun, this, and I don't even watch GBBO. As has been noted, the basic format is pretty darn simple, and we've seen with Top Gear you are more than able to do essentially the same thing with the same people and call it something else, so why not with GBBO?
    I think I posted the other day that Ch4 had made one of the biggest cockups in broadcasting contract history by failing to secure the presenters before announcing the big win. Whoops.

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Turning out quite fun, this, and I don't even watch GBBO. As has been noted, the basic format is pretty darn simple, and we've seen with Top Gear you are more than able to do essentially the same thing with the same people and call it something else, so why not with GBBO?
    I think I posted the other day that Ch4 had made one of the biggest cockups in broadcasting contract history by failing to secure the presenters before announcing the big win. Whoops.
    I waste too much time, but I actually checked Channel 4's boilerplate contract. There's a line where you have to secure the services of specified cast members or enter "Intentionally deleted" if none are specified. Failing to do so can result in Channel 4 waiving payment. There could be a serious haggle and I suspect the production company is a weak position in that case.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,049
    SeanT said:

    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?

    Go if you get first class travel and 5 star hotels.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,485
    As said about SeanT being a narcissist, I've just caught some of this thread...

    He probably knows it though well enough. If he doesn't, maybe he should Wiki it?
  • FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Turning out quite fun, this, and I don't even watch GBBO. As has been noted, the basic format is pretty darn simple, and we've seen with Top Gear you are more than able to do essentially the same thing with the same people and call it something else, so why not with GBBO?
    I think I posted the other day that Ch4 had made one of the biggest cockups in broadcasting contract history by failing to secure the presenters before announcing the big win. Whoops.

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Turning out quite fun, this, and I don't even watch GBBO. As has been noted, the basic format is pretty darn simple, and we've seen with Top Gear you are more than able to do essentially the same thing with the same people and call it something else, so why not with GBBO?
    I think I posted the other day that Ch4 had made one of the biggest cockups in broadcasting contract history by failing to secure the presenters before announcing the big win. Whoops.
    I waste too much time, but I actually checked Channel 4's boilerplate contract. There's a line where you have to secure the services of specified cast members or enter "Intentionally deleted" if none are specified. Failing to do so can result in Channel 4 waiving payment. There could be a serious haggle and I suspect the production company is a weak position in that case.
    Whats that I hear...Lawyers rubbing hands....
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,746
    MTimT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?

    Do it
    I'd have forgiven you for saying "Do one" instead.

    The only problem with saying Yes to the Oz trip is that I either have to give up an exclusive view of the new Lascaux exhibition in the Dordogne, or a luxury trip to Rome, dining at the Hassler etc.

    My life is one endless series of dilemmas. I yearn for simplicity.

    *cough*
    Ah, well, that is different. Given those choices, even though I have not been to either Rome (amazingly enough) or Western Australia and I have been to Lascaux, I'd choose Lascaux.

    You look at those 30,000 year old paintings and know that early human was every bit as intellectual as modern man, just with a bit less technology.

    Of course, no good wine or food in the Dardogne (cough).
    But the Lascaux painting are facsimiles (unless you managed to see the originals???). I've been invited to the previews of this

    http://www.euronews.com/2016/09/14/3d-lascaux-cave-comes-to-life


    On the other hand I love cave art (and they're going to show me lots of real cave paintings as well as the Lascaux thing). Maybe I'll just *postpone* Rome....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,049
    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    I think it'll be close to 70-30 for Corbyn.

    I agree. Smith was a remarkable find: someone even more incompetent and useless than Corbyn. Who would have thought that even possible let alone that that would be Labours alternative.
    He almost lost Pontypridd in 2010, a difficult task for anyone.
  • I gather Ken livingstone is on this week... that should help.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,425
    "If the only poll of the campaign is correct Corbyn is expected to ride home with 60% plus of the votes which will surely act as a discouragement to PLP members thinking of launching another challenge next year."

    Meanwhile, outside the Hard Left Bubble...

    "Theresa May is more trusted than Jeremy Corbyn to tackle the most urgent problems in post-Brexit Britain, including safeguarding the NHS, according to a new poll seen exclusively by the Guardian.

    Asked what politicians’ priorities should be, the top three choices in the Britain Thinks poll were safeguarding the health service, significantly reducing immigration and striking new trade deals as Britain leaves the European Union.

    Theresa May was more trusted on all three issues, outpacing Corbyn on protecting the NHS by 38% to 30%. On reducing immigration, 46% of voters trusted May; just 12% said Corbyn. Britain Thinks polled 2,053 people, weighted to represent the country, as well as conducting four focus groups in Harlow and Leamington Spa."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/22/theresa-may-more-trusted-than-jeremy-corbyn-britains-key-issues-poll

    The Tories outpolling Labour on who's best for the NHS. Despite the junior doctors' strike, and a regular stream of doom-laden prophecies of impending collapse. Absolutely, totally extraordinary.

    Brand loyalty is all that the Labour Party has left now. Come the next election, if Corbyn beats Michael Foot's 1983 vote share it will probably only be because of third party weakness.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    SeanT said:

    MTimT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?

    Do it
    I'd have forgiven you for saying "Do one" instead.

    The only problem with saying Yes to the Oz trip is that I either have to give up an exclusive view of the new Lascaux exhibition in the Dordogne, or a luxury trip to Rome, dining at the Hassler etc.

    My life is one endless series of dilemmas. I yearn for simplicity.

    *cough*
    Ah, well, that is different. Given those choices, even though I have not been to either Rome (amazingly enough) or Western Australia and I have been to Lascaux, I'd choose Lascaux.

    You look at those 30,000 year old paintings and know that early human was every bit as intellectual as modern man, just with a bit less technology.

    Of course, no good wine or food in the Dardogne (cough).
    But the Lascaux painting are facsimiles (unless you managed to see the originals???). I've been invited to the previews of this

    http://www.euronews.com/2016/09/14/3d-lascaux-cave-comes-to-life


    On the other hand I love cave art (and they're going to show me lots of real cave paintings as well as the Lascaux thing). Maybe I'll just *postpone* Rome....
    All sound fascinating but do get to Rome eventually if you can, looking over the Forum at night is mesmeric
  • Disgraceful....yet another thread goes by and not on GBBO....given the amount of coverage on the BBC, I have to conclude it is the most important story in the world.

    Oh and last like Owen Thingy...

    One of my Sunday thread's talks about the GBBO, it also contains possibly my most mind bleaching awful PB headline
    Soggy bottom or biscuit.... the latter maybe after mums net this week??
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,827
    SeanT said:

    MTimT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?

    Do it
    I'd have forgiven you for saying "Do one" instead.

    The only problem with saying Yes to the Oz trip is that I either have to give up an exclusive view of the new Lascaux exhibition in the Dordogne, or a luxury trip to Rome, dining at the Hassler etc.

    My life is one endless series of dilemmas. I yearn for simplicity.

    *cough*
    Ah, well, that is different. Given those choices, even though I have not been to either Rome (amazingly enough) or Western Australia and I have been to Lascaux, I'd choose Lascaux.

    You look at those 30,000 year old paintings and know that early human was every bit as intellectual as modern man, just with a bit less technology.

    Of course, no good wine or food in the Dardogne (cough).
    But the Lascaux painting are facsimiles (unless you managed to see the originals???). I've been invited to the previews of this

    http://www.euronews.com/2016/09/14/3d-lascaux-cave-comes-to-life


    On the other hand I love cave art (and they're going to show me lots of real cave paintings as well as the Lascaux thing). Maybe I'll just *postpone* Rome....
    The exhibit the public see are a facsimile. But at Font de Gamme (spelling?) down the road you can see the originals. Got to rush. If you have questions, you can message me and I'll get back once I have been able to dig out the details.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited September 2016
    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    Just seen on 538 why Ohio is leaning Trump and Pennselvania is in Hillary's firewall:
    State College Non college
    Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
    Penn 44.4% 35.9%

    an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.

    33.3% of the electorate are wwc non college and the higher a state is above that figure generally the more likely it is to vote for Trump and the lower it is below that figure the more likely it is to vote for Hillary so Pennsylvania is almost bang on the US average (it actually has 33.4% wwc non college educated) and hence is one of the pivotal states of the election
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
    but you have to remember Clinto is winning a group (white college educated) that Repubs normally win.
    Trump is winning a group (white working class) that Democrats used to win. In fact if you took a typical Republican who voted for Ford in 1976 he would now be voting for Hillary and if you took a typical Democrat who voted for Carter in 1976 he would now be voting for Trump
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1976
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,746
    tyson said:

    As said about SeanT being a narcissist, I've just caught some of this thread...

    He probably knows it though well enough. If he doesn't, maybe he should Wiki it?

    You fail to distinguish between narcissism and shameless, vulgar gloating.
  • Disgraceful....yet another thread goes by and not on GBBO....given the amount of coverage on the BBC, I have to conclude it is the most important story in the world.

    Oh and last like Owen Thingy...

    One of my Sunday thread's talks about the GBBO, it also contains possibly my most mind bleaching awful PB headline
    Soggy bottom or biscuit.... the latter maybe after mums net this week??
    It may reference this t shirt

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,267
    SeanT said:

    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?

    Never follow the advice of anyone named after a motorway service station. In any case, Australia is too far, too hot and the telly is shit.
  • Disgraceful....yet another thread goes by and not on GBBO....given the amount of coverage on the BBC, I have to conclude it is the most important story in the world.

    Oh and last like Owen Thingy...

    One of my Sunday thread's talks about the GBBO, it also contains possibly my most mind bleaching awful PB headline
    Soggy bottom or biscuit.... the latter maybe after mums net this week??
    It may reference this t shirt

    I had to goggle that... so soggy biscuit it is then...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    Also FPT

    HYUFD said:

    I know you have to treat the Daily Express as the ultimate Brexit paper but they are reporting Developing Countries and others are losing interest in trade deals with the EU on UK's exit. Very interesting if true and when you think about it it does make sense

    So we are joining the Third world? Or at least Leaverstan is....
    Actually Leaverstan now does not just include much of the provincial UK but the southern and rustbelt states of the US voting for Trump, most of the depressed industrial areas of France voting for Le Pen etc. Indeed London, Paris and New York and LA now have more in common with each other than London does with the North East, Paris with the Pas de Calais and New York with West Virginia and Ohio. Never have the west's most prosperous cities and their suburbs been so divorced from the rest of the country
    I think that is more or less correct. The effect of globalisation (and the free marketeers of Brexit are in the driving seat) is to reduce inter-country inequality at the price of increasing intra-country inequality.

    Already the wealthy Chinese students that I pass in the streets of Leicester have more in common with the British undergraduates, than the British undergraduates have with the benighted of Benefit Street.
    Yes it is the backlash of working class nationalism to upper middle class internationalism which really encapsulates what is going on in much of the West at present
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,004
    Melbourne is lovely this morning...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,004
    Insist on Etihad Business Studio or Lufthansa First.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,872
    MattW said:

    Melbourne is lovely this morning...

    Jealous....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,202
    @SeanT: I was just in your manor - I was enjoying a pint or two in the Spread Eagle on Parkway

    @DavidL (if you're still around), there is a big difference between the customs unions and the Single Market. The EU Customs Union has a common external tariff system, and makes trade deals on behalf the entire bloc. However, other than defining the area inside the bloc as tariff free, it imposes no obligations on its members. All EU states are members of the EU Customs Union, as is Turkey, which therefore benefits from tariff free trade with the EU and with the 30 odd countries the EU has trade arrangements with.

    The Single Market, aka the European Economic Area, or EEA, includes the EU states, Iceland, Litchenstein and Norway. (But it does not include Turkey.) It defines a set of rules that all members use while trading with each other, in particular the principle that you cannot discriminate against other citizens or firms from other EEA countries. Members acknowledge that the ECJ is used for dispute as regards cross border trade. So (in the case of my now sold asset management business) we were allowed to sell funds domiciled in London to French customers on the same terms as a French fund manager.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,425
    AndyJS said:

    Tories in power until at least 2025. That's what Corbyn winning means.

    If the Tories win by a landslide then they are probably in until at least 2030. Even if a new and credible opposition crawls out of the rubble soon after 2020 (and that's a big if,) the Conservatives will have so many safe seats it is highly likely to take more than one election to wear down their majority.

    It's even possible that Labour and the broader Left will be marginalised for a generation, and the opposition will eventually emerge from a split in the Conservative Party. If the centre-Left can't deal with its crisis of message and purpose then it's entirely possible that we'll end up with two flavours of Tories as both Government and Opposition - before the parties eventually drift back into the roles of Liberal and Conservative, and it's as-you-were before Labour ever existed. Stranger things have happened...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,202
    MattW said:

    Melbourne is lovely this morning...

    I like Melbourne. I may even move there.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,746
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    MTimT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?

    Do it
    I'd have forgiven you for saying "Do one" instead.

    The only problem with saying Yes to the Oz trip is that I either have to give up an exclusive view of the new Lascaux exhibition in the Dordogne, or a luxury trip to Rome, dining at the Hassler etc.

    My life is one endless series of dilemmas. I yearn for simplicity.

    *cough*
    Ah, well, that is different. Given those choices, even though I have not been to either Rome (amazingly enough) or Western Australia and I have been to Lascaux, I'd choose Lascaux.

    You look at those 30,000 year old paintings and know that early human was every bit as intellectual as modern man, just with a bit less technology.

    Of course, no good wine or food in the Dardogne (cough).
    But the Lascaux painting are facsimiles (unless you managed to see the originals???). I've been invited to the previews of this

    http://www.euronews.com/2016/09/14/3d-lascaux-cave-comes-to-life


    On the other hand I love cave art (and they're going to show me lots of real cave paintings as well as the Lascaux thing). Maybe I'll just *postpone* Rome....
    All sound fascinating but do get to Rome eventually if you can, looking over the Forum at night is mesmeric
    I have been to Rome, quite a few times. Indeed I've stayed a week at the Villa Medici, possibly the most beautiful house in the city, right on top of the Spanish Steps, which has a larger private garden than the Pope.

    The only people who get to stay there are winners of the Prix de Rome (and their friends)

    I played the piano played by Debussy.

    http://www.villamedici.it/en

    I'll stop now.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Labour gain Allergale Christchurch from Conservatives Lib Dems a good 2nd Conservatives slump to 3rd
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,971
    1100 Saturday morning on BBC2 for the Labvote buildup to the result announcement....
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,746
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?

    Never follow the advice of anyone named after a motorway service station. In any case, Australia is too far, too hot and the telly is shit.
    Margaret River in summer is said to be absolutely idyllic. Like a kind of empty Provence. I've never been, but travel writing friends - usually jaded - absolutely rave about it.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,848
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Melbourne is lovely this morning...

    I like Melbourne. I may even move there.
    Melbourne is London in the southern hemisphere.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,049
    MattW said:

    Melbourne is lovely this morning...

    There was a gale blowing when I was there a few weeks ago.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302

    Disgraceful....yet another thread goes by and not on GBBO....given the amount of coverage on the BBC, I have to conclude it is the most important story in the world.

    Oh and last like Owen Thingy...

    One of my Sunday thread's talks about the GBBO, it also contains possibly my most mind bleaching awful PB headline
    Soggy bottom or biscuit.... the latter maybe after mums net this week??
    It may reference this t shirt

    twitter.com/happymem0r1es/status/357964834819694592
    Gotta be a 'shop.. or someone who looks awfully like Ken?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,202
    Today, at my first meeting at my new employer I described a European bank investment thus:

    "X is probably the best Eurozone bank. Although I realise that is a little bit like saying that syphilis is the best STD."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,971
    edited September 2016
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?

    Never follow the advice of anyone named after a motorway service station. In any case, Australia is too far, too hot and the telly is shit.
    Margaret River in summer is said to be absolutely idyllic. Like a kind of empty Provence. I've never been, but travel writing friends - usually jaded - absolutely rave about it.

    In the summer there barely is any Margaret River.

    Edit/ wrong, sorry, I am thinking of the Murray River.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,202
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Melbourne is lovely this morning...

    I like Melbourne. I may even move there.
    Melbourne is London in the southern hemisphere.
    That may be one of the reasons I like it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Melbourne is lovely this morning...

    I like Melbourne. I may even move there.
    Other parts of Derbyshire are nicer.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Allerdale

    Lab 40.7% plus 5.8%
    LDem 29.4% plus 20,0%
    Con 25.9% minus 19.3%
    UKIP 4,0% plus 4.0%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    MTimT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia

    http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/


    It means I'll miss part of late November in England.

    Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?

    Do it
    I'd have forgiven you for saying "Do one" instead.

    The only problem with saying Yes to the Oz trip is that I either have to give up an exclusive view of the new Lascaux exhibition in the Dordogne, or a luxury trip to Rome, dining at the Hassler etc.

    My life is one endless series of dilemmas. I yearn for simplicity.

    *cough*
    Ah, well, that is different. Given those choices, even though I have not been to either Rome (amazingly enough) or Western Australia and I have been to Lascaux, I'd choose Lascaux.

    You look at those 30,000 year old paintings and know that early human was every bit as intellectual as modern man, just with a bit less technology.

    Of course, no good wine or food in the Dardogne (cough).
    But the Lascaux painting are facsimiles (unless you managed to see the originals???). I've been invited to the previews of this

    http://www.euronews.com/2016/09/14/3d-lascaux-cave-comes-to-life


    On the other hand I love cave art (and they're going to show me lots of real cave paintings as well as the Lascaux thing). Maybe I'll just *postpone* Rome....
    All sound fascinating but do get to Rome eventually if you can, looking over the Forum at night is mesmeric
    I have been to Rome, quite a few times. Indeed I've stayed a week at the Villa Medici, possibly the most beautiful house in the city, right on top of the Spanish Steps, which has a larger private garden than the Pope.

    The only people who get to stay there are winners of the Prix de Rome (and their friends)

    I played the piano played by Debussy.

    http://www.villamedici.it/en

    I'll stop now.
    Sorry, reread that it was TimT who had not been to Rome. Looks like you enjoyed your very own 'Roman Holiday' in a fantastic location!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,202
    AndyJS said:

    MattW said:

    Melbourne is lovely this morning...

    There was a gale blowing when I was there a few weeks ago.
    LOL! I was there three weeks ago :)

    We should set up a PB Melbourne appreciation society.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,971
    Liz Kendall struggling to make sense of the rebel position on BBCQT
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,746
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Melbourne is lovely this morning...

    I like Melbourne. I may even move there.
    Weird climate, Melbourne. Summer heat yields to Antarctic winds in hours. Drives people mad.

    Sydney is nicer. The northern beaches and Brisbane river area above Sydney is even nicer still. Basically perfect. You have to pay for it, tho. Of course.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,848
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Melbourne is lovely this morning...

    I like Melbourne. I may even move there.
    Melbourne is London in the southern hemisphere.
    That may be one of the reasons I like it.
    Yes, me too. It's the only part of Australia I found bearable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,202
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Melbourne is lovely this morning...

    I like Melbourne. I may even move there.
    Weird climate, Melbourne. Summer heat yields to Antarctic winds in hours. Drives people mad.

    Sydney is nicer. The northern beaches and Brisbane river area above Sydney is even nicer still. Basically perfect. You have to pay for it, tho. Of course.
    Oh yes, Sydney is on the water, and has better weather. I love Sydney.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    RobD said:

    Disgraceful....yet another thread goes by and not on GBBO....given the amount of coverage on the BBC, I have to conclude it is the most important story in the world.

    Oh and last like Owen Thingy...

    One of my Sunday thread's talks about the GBBO, it also contains possibly my most mind bleaching awful PB headline
    Soggy bottom or biscuit.... the latter maybe after mums net this week??
    It may reference this t shirt

    twitter.com/happymem0r1es/status/357964834819694592
    Gotta be a 'shop.. or someone who looks awfully like Ken?
    Fortunately for Ken it is not Ken in the photo.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Melbourne is lovely this morning...

    I like Melbourne. I may even move there.
    Weird climate, Melbourne. Summer heat yields to Antarctic winds in hours. Drives people mad.

    Sydney is nicer. The northern beaches and Brisbane river area above Sydney is even nicer still. Basically perfect. You have to pay for it, tho. Of course.
    I lived in Melboune for a while (in Prahran). It is a much more liveable city than Sydney, though Sydney has more for the tourist.

    Great European culture, particularly Greek, Italian and Yugoslavian.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,049
    edited September 2016
    People in Sydney were the happiest I've ever come across in a big city. They were a bit grumpy in Melbourne by comparison, although nothing like London.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,004
    edited September 2016
    welshowl said:

    MattW said:

    Melbourne is lovely this morning...

    Jealous....
    Corner Suite at the Sydney Hilton last week. Istanbul Conrad for one night on the way home.

    Living like SeanT for 1% of the year. :-D

    So doctor, which is the best bit of Derbyshire?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 1,394
    Sean_F said:


    RCP now has Trump on 266-272 Clinton, but Florida is on a knife edge and the remaining States look okay for her.

    On Nate Silver's reckoning, Trump will remain just short even if he wins two states (Florida and Nevada) where he currently has a lead of less than 1% and two more (Ohio and North Carolina) where he currently has a lead of less than 2%. I'd have thought the first two of those at least could fairly be classed as "statistical dead heats".

    Even if he did that, he would also need to win at least one more state, but all the others have Clinton leads of at least 3% (again on Silver's figures).

    Obviously it's possible, but Silver's estimate of a 40.6% chance of it happening seems high to me. Evidently his statistical model is extremely complicated, but I presume that high probability is essentially coming from two possibilities: (1) that there's an underlying bias in the polling data, and (2) that there's a further shift towards Trump before polling day. I don't believe pure sampling error alone would produce a 40% probability of a Trump victory.

  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 180
    My wife's children live in Melbourne and we'll probably move there after Brexit, LOL!! SeanT may be right as we have friends who moved from Malaysia to Sydney (but then they have more money than us!)
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,746
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Melbourne is lovely this morning...

    I like Melbourne. I may even move there.
    Weird climate, Melbourne. Summer heat yields to Antarctic winds in hours. Drives people mad.

    Sydney is nicer. The northern beaches and Brisbane river area above Sydney is even nicer still. Basically perfect. You have to pay for it, tho. Of course.
    Oh yes, Sydney is on the water, and has better weather. I love Sydney.
    This is where my Aussie daughter Ruby lives. An hour north of Sydney (max). Pittwater.

    http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/yacht-race-on-pittwater-sydney-new-south-wales-australia-picture-id139808926?s=170667a


    http://l7.alamy.com/zooms/8f4c036d59584339877b205be0e06c36/bayview-pittwater-sydney-nsw-australia-aebbxe.jpg

    Incredibly seductive
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ally_B said:

    My wife's children live in Melbourne and we'll probably move there after Brexit, LOL!! SeanT may be right as we have friends who moved from Malaysia to Sydney (but then they have more money than us!)

    Average house prices in Sydney dropped below 1 million AUD this year. Not far off London prices.

    Adelaide is lovely too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,202
    AndyJS said:

    People in Sydney were the happiest I've ever come across in a big city. They were a bit grumpy in Melbourne by comparison, although nothing like London.

    Hmmm: I'm not sure about that. The people in Melbourne seemed plenty happy to me.
This discussion has been closed.