Trump is going to lose votes compared to Romney in all the places that don't matter, like Utah and Vermont. On the other hand he's going to pick up votes where needed in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Looking at the demographics of voter registration (which US states are ludicrously generous with) there has been no surge of white registration, things are in trend for Pew's prediction of the least white electorate ever.
With no increase in non-voter participation Trump is reliant on flipping Dem voters. Dem voters who were turned out by Obama's clinical GOTV operation and need to be turned out by Trump's anemic operation that has never targeted them before.
If going into election day a sate is polling 50/50 I'm going to call it for Clinton on the strength of the GOTV.
Presumably there is low disenfranchisement amongst wwc voters anyway, though? Registered to vote but haven't voted for yonks is different to not registered/never voted...
@HeidilBlake: A language expert on @BBCr4today just said the less/fewer rule is a myth and now my whole belief system has collapsed.
It's not a f****** myth.
Could you post the documentary evidence of the last 300 years of English language use showing everyday people making a distinction between less and fewer universally?
How can any language usage be declared a myth? That assumes that there is an ultimate authority which supports other usages. My understanding of "myth" is that it is a story told over the ages which survives because it is useful in explaining to people who they are and what is expected of them.
So Tories up 2% on the general election, Labour and UKIP essentially unchanged
Media and commentators overly negative on Corbyyn. Just look at elections since 2015. Labour have won handsomely in the key ones. Overall, even keel at worst. I hate Labour, but one must always look at actual results, not potential.
Still there is a swing to the Tories since the general election
@HeidilBlake: A language expert on @BBCr4today just said the less/fewer rule is a myth and now my whole belief system has collapsed.
It's not a f****** myth.
Could you post the documentary evidence of the last 300 years of English language use ahowing everyday people making a distinction between less and fewer?
Theresa May has helped lift support for the Conservative party in Wales to its highest level for six years. This is the stand-out finding from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, the first opinion poll to be conducted in Wales since the change of Prime Minister.
Owen whatshisface is less popular in Wales than Jez. Perfect candidate from a Tory point of view. So useless that he has legitimised Corbyn's leadership with an even bigger mandate from the members.
Agent Smith sent to the rescue of Agent Corbyn?
Argclu would have polled better than Smith, surely?
The only viable alternative to Corbyn before 2020 remains John McDonnell in my view
He may have worse views, but he is a credible and convincing figure, at first glance. He has more gravitas. Mao's book notwithstanding.
@HeidilBlake: A language expert on @BBCr4today just said the less/fewer rule is a myth and now my whole belief system has collapsed.
It's not a f****** myth.
That it is a fundamental rule sure is.
Mr Dancer gave a very good example the other day as to why it can make a very big difference.
I'm not saying there are not occasions er youth get wrong and how dare they, and that is my principle objection to the pedants. English is more flexible than that.
Now, to boldly go onto another topic, splitting infinitives is also fine...
The one I have trouble with is talking about organisations as singular entities. I can't say Arsenal is fourth in the league, I have to say Arsenal are fourth in the league, even though I know it is wrong to do so.
Incorrect. You are correct to do so. Sports teams and bands are exceptions in British English. Only in US English are they singular.
Sainsbury's cited its new store next to White Hart Lane, where Spurs are playing tomorrow.
If you are indeed correct, it is a fine example of the flexibility of our 'rules' rather than applying when it adds no value to understanding.
Do these polls take into account tactical voting? I.e. Lib Dems may have 8% of people who support their party but they may get more than that in the GE from labourites stopping tories (or vice versa)
@HeidilBlake: A language expert on @BBCr4today just said the less/fewer rule is a myth and now my whole belief system has collapsed.
It's not a f****** myth.
Could you post the documentary evidence of the last 300 years of English language use ahowing everyday people making a distinction between less and fewer?
How's this for evidence ?
The Pedants' revolt.
Perhaps he had heard that he had been horribly disfigured in some sort of accident?
Theresa May has helped lift support for the Conservative party in Wales to its highest level for six years. This is the stand-out finding from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, the first opinion poll to be conducted in Wales since the change of Prime Minister.
Owen whatshisface is less popular in Wales than Jez. Perfect candidate from a Tory point of view. So useless that he has legitimised Corbyn's leadership with an even bigger mandate from the members.
Agent Smith sent to the rescue of Agent Corbyn?
Argclu would have polled better than Smith, surely?
The only viable alternative to Corbyn before 2020 remains John McDonnell in my view
What scenario do you have in mind?
On current rules if Corbyn somehow vacates his post (death,resignation) , the PLP will nominate candidates. JMcD will not get the votes. Corbyn didn't this time.
If Corbyn is challenged again, why would JMcD enter the race?
McDonnell will never challenge Corbyn only person Corbyn might resign in favour of is McDonnell
Interesting flip in the PMIs, though. France at a five year high, Germany at a multi year low.
Yes, I did notice, though I remain sceptical until the final figures are out. German services industry, which competes with the UK, is finding life tough at the moment. Competing on level terms currency wise with UK services is not going to be easy for them after years of benefiting from the depressed currency. In manufacturing, where we are mostly uncompetitive, there doesn't seem to have been much change for Germany.
Do these polls take into account tactical voting? I.e. Lib Dems may have 8% of people who support their party but they may get more than that in the GE from labourites stopping tories (or vice versa)
No they don't take into account tactical voting.
The Lord Ashcroft constituency polling at the last question effectively asked tactical voting question which indicated the Lib Dems holding onto 25ish seats.
Theresa May has helped lift support for the Conservative party in Wales to its highest level for six years. This is the stand-out finding from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, the first opinion poll to be conducted in Wales since the change of Prime Minister.
Owen whatshisface is less popular in Wales than Jez. Perfect candidate from a Tory point of view. So useless that he has legitimised Corbyn's leadership with an even bigger mandate from the members.
Agent Smith sent to the rescue of Agent Corbyn?
Argclu would have polled better than Smith, surely?
The only viable alternative to Corbyn before 2020 remains John McDonnell in my view
He may have worse views, but he is a credible and convincing figure, at first glance. He has more gravitas. Mao's book notwithstanding.
@HeidilBlake: A language expert on @BBCr4today just said the less/fewer rule is a myth and now my whole belief system has collapsed.
It's not a f****** myth.
That it is a fundamental rule sure is.
Mr Dancer gave a very good example the other day as to why it can make a very big difference.
I'm not saying there are not occasions less or fewer might seem better. But pedants who ...
The one I have trouble with is talking about organisations as singular entities. I can't say Arsenal is fourth in the league, I have to say Arsenal are fourth in the league, even though I know it is wrong to do so.
Incorrect. You are correct to do so. Sports teams and bands are exceptions in British English. Only in US English are they singular.
Sainsbury's cited its new store next to White Hart Lane, where Spurs are playing tomorrow.
If you are indeed correct, it is a fine example of the flexibility of our 'rules' rather than applying when it adds no value to understanding.
So Tories up 2% on the general election, Labour and UKIP essentially unchanged
Media and commentators overly negative on Corbyyn. Just look at elections since 2015. Labour have won handsomely in the key ones. Overall, even keel at worst. I hate Labour, but one must always look at actual results, not potential.
Still there is a swing to the Tories since the general election
The irony is that Corbyn is the fourth horseman of the Brexit apocalypse who rode Leave over the referendum line, and it was the Corbynista's, who were very solidly for Remain, who were actually betrayed. Yet very few seem to see it like that.
In theory Labour ought to be haemorrhaging its Remain vote, not its Leave vote.
Trump is going to lose votes compared to Romney in all the places that don't matter, like Utah and Vermont. On the other hand he's going to pick up votes where needed in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Looking at the demographics of voter registration (which US states are ludicrously generous with) there has been no surge of white registration, things are in trend for Pew's prediction of the least white electorate ever.
With no increase in non-voter participation Trump is reliant on flipping Dem voters. Dem voters who were turned out by Obama's clinical GOTV operation and need to be turned out by Trump's anemic operation that has never targeted them before.
If going into election day a sate is polling 50/50 I'm going to call it for Clinton on the strength of the GOTV.
Turnout on the low side would be my POTUS hunch.
Indeed is it possibly going to be under 50% given the choice between the lacklustre and the barking mad?
Theresa May has helped lift support for the Conservative party in Wales to its highest level for six years. This is the stand-out finding from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, the first opinion poll to be conducted in Wales since the change of Prime Minister.
Owen whatshisface is less popular in Wales than Jez. Perfect candidate from a Tory point of view. So useless that he has legitimised Corbyn's leadership with an even bigger mandate from the members.
Agent Smith sent to the rescue of Agent Corbyn?
Argclu would have polled better than Smith, surely?
The only viable alternative to Corbyn before 2020 remains John McDonnell in my view
He may have worse views, but he is a credible and convincing figure, at first glance. He has more gravitas. Mao's book notwithstanding.
@HeidilBlake: A language expert on @BBCr4today just said the less/fewer rule is a myth and now my whole belief system has collapsed.
It's not a f****** myth.
That it is a fundamental rule sure is.
Mr Dancer gave a very good example the other day as to why it can make a very big difference.
I'm not saying there are not occasions less or fewer might seem better. But pedants who ...
The one I have trouble with is talking about organisations as singular entities. I can't say Arsenal is fourth in the league, I have to say Arsenal are fourth in the league, even though I know it is wrong to do so.
Incorrect. You are correct to do so. Sports teams and bands are exceptions in British English. Only in US English are they singular.
Sainsbury's cited its new store next to White Hart Lane, where Spurs are playing tomorrow.
If you are indeed correct, it is a fine example of the flexibility of our 'rules' rather than applying when it adds no value to understanding.
Civitas report says 5.8 million EU jobs depend on UK trade and 3.6 million UK jobs depend on trade with the EU
But we're going to get a terrrrrible deal, right?
Clearly shows EU needs a deal too
The EU needs a deal on manufactured goods (though WTO terms on these are pretty reasonable) and agricultural goods. Less so on services and possibly not at all on financial services.
So Tories up 2% on the general election, Labour and UKIP essentially unchanged
Media and commentators overly negative on Corbyyn. Just look at elections since 2015. Labour have won handsomely in the key ones. Overall, even keel at worst. I hate Labour, but one must always look at actual results, not potential.
Still there is a swing to the Tories since the general election
The irony is that Corbyn is the fourth horseman of the Brexit apocalypse who rode Leave over the referendum line, and it was the Corbynista's, who were very solidly for Remain, who were actually betrayed. Yet very few seem to see it like that.
In theory Labour ought to be haemorrhaging its Remain vote, not its Leave vote.
The fact Corbyn gave token backing to Remain and the vast majority of Labour MPs backed Remain us probably key
While we are talking grammar, I only realised the other day - at 38 - that won't is a contraction of "would not".
Was reading some Lewis Carroll and he uses wo'n't.
But it isn't! It is actually a contraction of "will not" derived from the 17th C when it was acceptable to spell "will" as "woll". Wouldn't is would not.
You only have to think of common usage. "I won't be posting on PB tonight" is clearly a 'will' and not a 'would' statement.
Civitas report says 5.8 million EU jobs depend on UK trade and 3.6 million UK jobs depend on trade with the EU
But we're going to get a terrrrrible deal, right?
Clearly shows EU needs a deal too
The EU needs a deal on manufactured goods (though WTO terms on these are pretty reasonable) and agricultural goods. Less so on services and possibly not at all on financial services.
We are more the latter but either deal depends on the other
Civitas report says 5.8 million EU jobs depend on UK trade and 3.6 million UK jobs depend on trade with the EU
But we're going to get a terrrrrible deal, right?
Clearly shows EU needs a deal too
The EU needs a deal on manufactured goods (though WTO terms on these are pretty reasonable) and agricultural goods. Less so on services and possibly not at all on financial services.
We are more the latter but either deal depends on the other
WTO terms favour manufactured goods, tariffs are low.
Civitas report says 5.8 million EU jobs depend on UK trade and 3.6 million UK jobs depend on trade with the EU
But we're going to get a terrrrrible deal, right?
Clearly shows EU needs a deal too
The EU needs a deal on manufactured goods (though WTO terms on these are pretty reasonable) and agricultural goods. Less so on services and possibly not at all on financial services.
If only there was some compromise to be found between our needs and theirs?
Theresa May has helped lift support for the Conservative party in Wales to its highest level for six years. This is the stand-out finding from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, the first opinion poll to be conducted in Wales since the change of Prime Minister.
Owen whatshisface is less popular in Wales than Jez. Perfect candidate from a Tory point of view. So useless that he has legitimised Corbyn's leadership with an even bigger mandate from the members.
Agent Smith sent to the rescue of Agent Corbyn?
Argclu would have polled better than Smith, surely?
The only viable alternative to Corbyn before 2020 remains John McDonnell in my view
What scenario do you have in mind?
On current rules if Corbyn somehow vacates his post (death,resignation) , the PLP will nominate candidates. JMcD will not get the votes. Corbyn didn't this time.
If Corbyn is challenged again, why would JMcD enter the race?
Key point there is current rules. Corbyn is likely not going to step down until he has control over NEC, and can change the leadership election rules to reduce nominations threshold to 5% for example. Anyway, the PLP would be wise to accept JMcD in place of Corbyn. He would stand a better chance in 2020 as he could at least be taken more seriously, even if his ideas are ultimately likely to prove too unpalatable.
It's difficult to see how Corbyn will be able to take control of the NEC anytime soon. The way it looks to be set up now and into the future means he is going to have great difficulty changing rules in his favour or preventing rule changes that work against him. If McCluskey loses to a moderate candidate in the Unison leadership election (unlikely, but possible), then Corbyn is finished.
Civitas report says 5.8 million EU jobs depend on UK trade and 3.6 million UK jobs depend on trade with the EU
But we're going to get a terrrrrible deal, right?
Clearly shows EU needs a deal too
The EU needs a deal on manufactured goods (though WTO terms on these are pretty reasonable) and agricultural goods. Less so on services and possibly not at all on financial services.
We are more the latter but either deal depends on the other
WTO terms favour manufactured goods, tariffs are low.
Agriculture and services much less so.
Hard Brexit favours German industry.
On the other side there is no such thing as a single market for services outside of the one we created in financial services, there are 28 disparate markets which we will still be able to sell services into. Moving to WTO terms for services (where there are no tariffs, other than VAT, of course) won't make very much difference, outside of financial services. That is where the compromise will need to be made, we will probably handle it with equivalency on the basis that the EC gives it to us at 12:01am and free trade in goods is assured. The rest of the services industry will continue as normal since nothing will really change, there are already no tariffs and lots of local NTBs.
Leaverstan for me is that section of England and Wales between the two. Overwhelmingly Labour voting, not or never needed for a Conservative majority, sometimes depopulating, ex industrial, very reliant on the State and crucially often at least partially responsible for it's own decline. A tendency to blame everything on Thatcher, elect crap one party state councils and overly nostalgic.
That sounds like a good description of the Remainastan of the inner cities.
You might argue that they're now increasing in population - but renting a room in Brixton or Hackney doesn't seem preferable to me to owning a house in Bolsover or Castle Point.
I'm sure we'll be told how 'creative' Remainastan is. But the word 'creative' always brings to my mind Jez from Peep Show and the lyrics from this song:
I've just done a quick calculation on home ownership levels in Leaverstan * and Remainastan **
Leaverstan 70% Remainastan 31%
Of course different people have different lifestyle wishes and requirements but what does the average person with an average family and an average job want ? To own their own semi or to 'rent a flat above a shop' ?
* Leaverstan being the 12 parliamentary constituencies in the top 10 Leave areas (9 of these constituencies being Conservative incidentally).
** Remainastan being the 13 constituencies in the boroughs of Camden, Hackney, Haringey, Islington, Lambeth and Southwark.
Wasn't Richmond-upon-Thames also 70% Remain?
Edit to add: and Hammersmith & Fulham
My Remainastan was based upon the strongest Remain areas in England which also happened to be Labour strongholds and voted YEStoAV.
Home ownership in other strong Remain constituencies:
Hammersmith 31% Chelsea & Fulham 41% Battersea 41% Tooting 48% Putney 46% Wimbledon 63% Richmond Park 63% Twickenham 69%
I would describe the Conservative constituencies stretching from west London out to Surrey as 'Bankerland'. A very different and much more desirable area than 'Remainastan'.
To add: some constituencies - Hammersmith, Kensington, Westminster North, Tooting, Hampstead & Kilburn and Brentford & Isleworth are mixtures of 'Bankerland' and 'Remainastan'.
While we are talking grammar, I only realised the other day - at 38 - that won't is a contraction of "would not".
Was reading some Lewis Carroll and he uses wo'n't.
But it isn't! It is actually a contraction of "will not" derived from the 17th C when it was acceptable to spell "will" as "woll". Wouldn't is would not.
You only have to think of common usage. "I won't be posting on PB tonight" is clearly a 'will' and not a 'would' statement.
Oh, you're right. I didn't know that about will/woll. One of the joys of PB - there's always a grammar expert to hand. See also, ancient Roman and Greek military history.
I'd love to see it happen, though maybe a newer design given that is 20 years old now, we could probably have one with even less crew and a higher cruising speed.
"Incidents of ‘Islamophobia’ are really getting out of hand in Britain. In fact there has been such a wave of attacks that it’s amazing that politicians and commentators across the political spectrum, (not to mention all those supposed ‘anti-fascist’ groups) aren’t grand-standing like crazy. Perhaps their problem is that this wave of attacks does not consist of people writing nasty and mean things on Twitter, but of Muslims killing other Muslims and still other Muslims extolling such killings.
I'd love to see it happen, though maybe a newer design given that is 20 years old now, we could probably have one with even less crew and a higher cruising speed.
We could justify the cost of a new royal yacht by having it double as an aircraft carrier. Since none of our carriers will have planes anyway, it won't (woll not) matter that it has no flight deck.
Theresa May has helped lift support for the Conservative party in Wales to its highest level for six years. This is the stand-out finding from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, the first opinion poll to be conducted in Wales since the change of Prime Minister.
Owen whatshisface is less popular in Wales than Jez. Perfect candidate from a Tory point of view. So useless that he has legitimised Corbyn's leadership with an even bigger mandate from the members.
Agent Smith sent to the rescue of Agent Corbyn?
Argclu would have polled better than Smith, surely?
The only viable alternative to Corbyn before 2020 remains John McDonnell in my view
What scenario do you have in mind?
On current rules if Corbyn somehow vacates his post (death,resignation) , the PLP will nominate candidates. JMcD will not get the votes. Corbyn didn't this time.
If Corbyn is challenged again, why would JMcD enter the race?
Key point there is current rules. Corbyn is likely not going to step down until he has control over NEC, and can change the leadership election rules to reduce nominations threshold to 5% for example. Anyway, the PLP would be wise to accept JMcD in place of Corbyn. He would stand a better chance in 2020 as he could at least be taken more seriously, even if his ideas are ultimately likely to prove too unpalatable.
It's difficult to see how Corbyn will be able to take control of the NEC anytime soon. The way it looks to be set up now and into the future means he is going to have great difficulty changing rules in his favour or preventing rule changes that work against him. If McCluskey loses to a moderate candidate in the Unison leadership election (unlikely, but possible), then Corbyn is finished.
SO, I've sure you've said before, so I'm probably asking you to repeat yourself which is probably unfair, but given that 'the party' is now pretty much behind Corbyn in terms of the membership and that he is now what Labour is, how can you really remain a labour supporter in any way shape or form?
Trump is going to lose votes compared to Romney in all the places that don't matter, like Utah and Vermont. On the other hand he's going to pick up votes where needed in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Looking at the demographics of voter registration (which US states are ludicrously generous with) there has been no surge of white registration, things are in trend for Pew's prediction of the least white electorate ever.
With no increase in non-voter participation Trump is reliant on flipping Dem voters. Dem voters who were turned out by Obama's clinical GOTV operation and need to be turned out by Trump's anemic operation that has never targeted them before.
If going into election day a sate is polling 50/50 I'm going to call it for Clinton on the strength of the GOTV.
Trump's vote seems more efficiently distributed than Romney's but PA still looks solid for Clinton.
@HeidilBlake: A language expert on @BBCr4today just said the less/fewer rule is a myth and now my whole belief system has collapsed.
It's not a f****** myth.
That it is a fundamental rule sure is.
Mr Dancer gave a very good example the other day as to why it can make a very big difference.
I'm not saying there are not occasions less or fewer might seem better. But pedants who immediately respond 'you mean less/fewer' to any 'incorrect' usage usually pay no attention to context and are insisting it always makes a difference even when it doesn't in any real sense. It has never been a rigid universal rule which der youth get wrong and how dare they, and that is my principle objection to the pedants. English is more flexible than that.
Now, to boldly go onto another topic, splitting infinitives is also fine...
The one I have trouble with is talking about organisations as singular entities. I can't say Arsenal is fourth in the league, I have to say Arsenal are fourth in the league, even though I know it is wrong to do so.
Incorrect. You are correct to do so. Sports teams and bands are exceptions in British English. Only in US English are they singular.
Sainsbury's cited its new store next to White Hart Lane, where Spurs are playing tomorrow.
I think British English may be the exception here. I am pretty sure the Canadians, Australians and New Zealanders refer to teams in the singular.
Yep, New World English generally they are singular. However it's a stretch to call British English an exception given that it's the mother form of the language.
How does that statement work, when in some respects American English preserves forms that used to be the 'standard' English but from which 'British English' has departed? For example American pronunciation is closer to how English was spoken at the time that colonists left than most current-day British accents, and words like "gotten" go back to Middle English,
I'd love to see it happen, though maybe a newer design given that is 20 years old now, we could probably have one with even less crew and a higher cruising speed.
Theresa May has helped lift support for the Conservative party in Wales to its highest level for six years. This is the stand-out finding from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, the first opinion poll to be conducted in Wales since the change of Prime Minister.
Owen whatshisface is less popular in Wales than Jez. Perfect candidate from a Tory point of view. So useless that he has legitimised Corbyn's leadership with an even bigger mandate from the members.
Agent Smith sent to the rescue of Agent Corbyn?
Argclu would have polled better than Smith, surely?
The only viable alternative to Corbyn before 2020 remains John McDonnell in my view
What scenario do you have in mind?
On current rules if Corbyn somehow vacates his post (death,resignation) , the PLP will nominate candidates. JMcD will not get the votes. Corbyn didn't this time.
If Corbyn is challenged again, why would JMcD enter the race?
Key point there is current rules. Corbyn is likely not going to step down until he has control over NEC, and can change the leadership election rules to reduce nominations threshold to 5% for example. Anyway, the PLP would be wise to accept JMcD in place of Corbyn. He would stand a better chance in 2020 as he could at least be taken more seriously, even if his ideas are ultimately likely to prove too unpalatable.
It's difficult to see how Corbyn will be able to take control of the NEC anytime soon. The way it looks to be set up now and into the future means he is going to have great difficulty changing rules in his favour or preventing rule changes that work against him. If McCluskey loses to a moderate candidate in the Unison leadership election (unlikely, but possible), then Corbyn is finished.
SO, I've sure you've said before, so I'm probably asking you to repeat yourself which is probably unfair, but given that 'the party' is now pretty much behind Corbyn in terms of the membership and that he is now what Labour is, how can you really remain a labour supporter in any way shape or form?
He just needs to study Liz Kendall's answers to essentially that question on yesterday's Question Time, and sort her words into some sort of order that actually makes logical sense.
It's difficult to see how Corbyn will be able to take control of the NEC anytime soon. The way it looks to be set up now and into the future means he is going to have great difficulty changing rules in his favour or preventing rule changes that work against him. If McCluskey loses to a moderate candidate in the Unison leadership election (unlikely, but possible), then Corbyn is finished.
McCluskey, Unison, eh? Of what do you speak?
But I agree that the NEC is pretty deadlocked, thanks to the federal structure.
"If a poll is a snapshot not a prediction, the same applies in spades to a set of focus groups. But there is something eerily familiar about some of the themes from our first week of research. Many people want a new direction, and seem prepared to accept the risks that they know go with it. Those who want change appear more motivated than those who would rather keep the status quo. And it is hard to see what new information will help people decide between the two. Now, where have we heard that before?
Trump is going to lose votes compared to Romney in all the places that don't matter, like Utah and Vermont. On the other hand he's going to pick up votes where needed in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Looking at the demographics of voter registration (which US states are ludicrously generous with) there has been no surge of white registration, things are in trend for Pew's prediction of the least white electorate ever.
With no increase in non-voter participation Trump is reliant on flipping Dem voters. Dem voters who were turned out by Obama's clinical GOTV operation and need to be turned out by Trump's anemic operation that has never targeted them before.
If going into election day a sate is polling 50/50 I'm going to call it for Clinton on the strength of the GOTV.
Trump's vote seems more efficiently distributed than Romney's but PA still looks solid for Clinton.
IIRC PA has been more Dem than the USA as a whole in every election from 1952 onwards.
Given the RoI a new Royal yacht seems a no brainer to me.
Probably something that May could do that Cameron could not: I think this has always been about politics not economics.
A folly, harking back to a golden age that never was. We've managed perfectly well without it. If the Queen wants a boat she is at liberty to purchase one.
Civitas report says 5.8 million EU jobs depend on UK trade and 3.6 million UK jobs depend on trade with the EU
But we're going to get a terrrrrible deal, right?
Clearly shows EU needs a deal too
The EU needs a deal on manufactured goods (though WTO terms on these are pretty reasonable) and agricultural goods. Less so on services and possibly not at all on financial services.
We are more the latter but either deal depends on the other
WTO terms favour manufactured goods, tariffs are low.
Agriculture and services much less so.
Hard Brexit favours German industry.
On the other side there is no such thing as a single market for services outside of the one we created in financial services, there are 28 disparate markets which we will still be able to sell services into. Moving to WTO terms for services (where there are no tariffs, other than VAT, of course) won't make very much difference, outside of financial services. That is where the compromise will need to be made, we will probably handle it with equivalency on the basis that the EC gives it to us at 12:01am and free trade in goods is assured. The rest of the services industry will continue as normal since nothing will really change, there are already no tariffs and lots of local NTBs.
From the FT: "Figures from the Office of National Statistics show overseas tourist visits to the UK rose 2 per cent in the first month after the Brexit vote, with holidaymakers spending £1.79bn in the month, up from the £1.77bn in June."
I'm slightly surprised that there was not more of an increase in July, especially as one would expect that July should be a big month for tourism. I'd also like to see the y-o-y figures.
I'd love to see it happen, though maybe a newer design given that is 20 years old now, we could probably have one with even less crew and a higher cruising speed.
More for the Tory magic money tree.
Capital investment, I thought Labour were n favour?
From the FT: "Figures from the Office of National Statistics show overseas tourist visits to the UK rose 2 per cent in the first month after the Brexit vote, with holidaymakers spending £1.79bn in the month, up from the £1.77bn in June."
I'm slightly surprised that there was not more of an increase in July, especially as one would expect that July should be a big month for tourism. I'd also like to see the y-o-y figures.
OK: it's a 4% year-over-year increase in overseas spending in the UK in July. Hopefully August (when more people will be aware of the cheapness of Sterling) will be even better.
Radio 5 is actually very interesting this morning.
Load of people harking back to the 'golden age' of Wilson and moaning about the media if they support corbyn, or just very depressed if they're anti Corbyn.
While we are talking grammar, I only realised the other day - at 38 - that won't is a contraction of "would not".
Was reading some Lewis Carroll and he uses wo'n't.
But it isn't! It is actually a contraction of "will not" derived from the 17th C when it was acceptable to spell "will" as "woll". Wouldn't is would not.
You only have to think of common usage. "I won't be posting on PB tonight" is clearly a 'will' and not a 'would' statement.
Oh, you're right. I didn't know that about will/woll. One of the joys of PB - there's always a grammar expert to hand. See also, ancient Roman and Greek military history.
Will began as "wyll" (more fully wyllan) in Old English before moving through "woll" and "will" then finally settling on "will" as common spelling. Meanwhile the pronunciation of English vowels has moved dramatically, for reasons that are still hotly debated today (Google 'great vowel shift' for more). England having had printing relatively early, with printers needing to decide on common spellings for words that were at the time both spoken and written in various different ways that were slowly changing, is the reason for mysteries of English pronunciation such as cough/bough/though/through/thought, all of which would at the time of early printing have sounded much more similar (much closer to the "oo" sound - the vowel shift affected Scotland less, which is why for 'house' in Scotland you will still often hear "hoose").
Civitas report says 5.8 million EU jobs depend on UK trade and 3.6 million UK jobs depend on trade with the EU
But we're going to get a terrrrrible deal, right?
Clearly shows EU needs a deal too
The EU needs a deal on manufactured goods (though WTO terms on these are pretty reasonable) and agricultural goods. Less so on services and possibly not at all on financial services.
We are more the latter but either deal depends on the other
WTO terms favour manufactured goods, tariffs are low.
Agriculture and services much less so.
Hard Brexit favours German industry.
On the other side there is no such thing as a single market for services outside of the one we created in financial services, there are 28 disparate markets which we will still be able to sell services into. Moving to WTO terms for services (where there are no tariffs, other than VAT, of course) won't make very much difference, outside of financial services. That is where the compromise will need to be made, we will probably handle it with equivalency on the basis that the EC gives it to us at 12:01am and free trade in goods is assured. The rest of the services industry will continue as normal since nothing will really change, there are already no tariffs and lots of local NTBs.
Many thanks to Southam and Gardenwalker for their Venice tips.
On the NEC, *if* the centre-left on the whole don't mind leftie policies too much but they want Laour to win and they feel Corbyn can't do it, it's actually in their interest to facilitate a left-wing candidate in the next leadership election by reducing the nomination hurdle (or allowing CLPs to nominate as David Herdson suggests!). Corbyn might one day decide to call it a day if he feltt hat a like-minded successor had a decent chance of succeeding him, but if the expectation is that nobody to the left of David Miliband will get past the nomination stage, then he'll stay on indefinitely unless forced out.
@HeidilBlake: A language expert on @BBCr4today just said the less/fewer rule is a myth and now my whole belief system has collapsed.
It's not a f****** myth.
That it is a fundamental rule sure is.
Mr Dancer gave a very good example the other day as to why it can make a very big difference.
I'm not saying there are not occasions less or fewer might seem better. But pedants who immediately respond 'you mean less/fewer' to any 'incorrect' usage usually pay no attention to context and are insisting it always makes a difference even when it doesn't in any real sense. It has never been a rigid universal rule which der youth get wrong and how dare they, and that is my principle objection to the pedants. English is more flexible than that.
Now, to boldly go onto another topic, splitting infinitives is also fine...
The one I have trouble with is talking about organisations as singular entities. I can't say Arsenal is fourth in the league, I have to say Arsenal are fourth in the league, even though I know it is wrong to do so.
Incorrect. You are correct to do so. Sports teams and bands are exceptions in British English. Only in US English are they singular.
Sainsbury's cited its new store next to White Hart Lane, where Spurs are playing tomorrow.
I think British English may be the exception here. I am pretty sure the Canadians, Australians and New Zealanders refer to teams in the singular.
Yep, New World English generally they are singular. However it's a stretch to call British English an exception given that it's the mother form of the language.
How does that statement work, when in some respects American English preserves forms that used to be the 'standard' English but from which 'British English' has departed? For example American pronunciation is closer to how English was spoken at the time that colonists left than most current-day British accents, and words like "gotten" go back to Middle English,
A fair point. However it's clearly wrong to say Spurs is playing well, although it is struggling with injuries. Just wrong, so there!
From the FT: "Figures from the Office of National Statistics show overseas tourist visits to the UK rose 2 per cent in the first month after the Brexit vote, with holidaymakers spending £1.79bn in the month, up from the £1.77bn in June."
I'm slightly surprised that there was not more of an increase in July, especially as one would expect that July should be a big month for tourism. I'd also like to see the y-o-y figures.
I'd also like to see how much Britons spent overseas YoY. That figure should be down.
Given the RoI a new Royal yacht seems a no brainer to me.
Probably something that May could do that Cameron could not: I think this has always been about politics not economics.
It would pay for itself in months as a floating British advertisement for free trade. We could even sentence Boris to it for a month at a time when he puts his foot in his mouth!
That cost would be spent almost entirely in the UK of course, which makes it even more of a no-brainer, although given how long it took them to sort out a place for VIP use - which was no more than a refueler and troop carrier with a few biz class seats and sat phones - I'm not optimistic. Would look great for the PM to announce it at Conference though, she'll never have the political capital for these things that she does now.
Given the RoI a new Royal yacht seems a no brainer to me.
Probably something that May could do that Cameron could not: I think this has always been about politics not economics.
A folly, harking back to a golden age that never was. We've managed perfectly well without it. If the Queen wants a boat she is at liberty to purchase one.
I didn't even know there was a royal yacht until last week. Who gives a single toss? Yeah, let her head down the Chelsea Yacht Fair with the plebs. Bloody royal scraping - annoying.
Civitas report says 5.8 million EU jobs depend on UK trade and 3.6 million UK jobs depend on trade with the EU
But we're going to get a terrrrrible deal, right?
Clearly shows EU needs a deal too
The EU needs a deal on manufactured goods (though WTO terms on these are pretty reasonable) and agricultural goods. Less so on services and possibly not at all on financial services.
If only there was some compromise to be found between our needs and theirs?
The Bitter Enders of UKIP and the Tory Right are not people who compromise.
Difficult to oppose the Britannia nonsense. #1 £100m doesn't even register on the normal scale of government waste. #2 There would no doubt be a posh boat at the end of it so it sort of passes the Ronseal test in a way much government waste doesn't. And the best argument against it, that's a ludicrous diversion from the national task ahead of us, is the most abstract and challenging one. It seems voters are in the mood for Bread and Circuses. Or at least Circuses where they see Bread taken away from people they don't like. I doubt it's worth spending political capital fighting it to be honest.
Robert Kimbell Of the 18 Leaders of the Labour Party to date, only 4 ever won general elections.
Of course, in the last 25 years, there have been five Conservative leaders: Hague, Howard, IDS, Cameron and May, and only one has won an election. It is the nature of politics that only perhaps a third of leaders will win elections.
Many thanks to Southam and Gardenwalker for their Venice tips.
On the NEC, *if* the centre-left on the whole don't mind leftie policies too much but they want Laour to win and they feel Corbyn can't do it, it's actually in their interest to facilitate a left-wing candidate in the next leadership election by reducing the nomination hurdle (or allowing CLPs to nominate as David Herdson suggests!). Corbyn might one day decide to call it a day if he feltt hat a like-minded successor had a decent chance of succeeding him, but if the expectation is that nobody to the left of David Miliband will get past the nomination stage, then he'll stay on indefinitely unless forced out.
I think the point is, that with the membership now as it is the most 'left' of any candidate on the ballot will be favourite. The question for the future is how Momentum or the current Corbynites can build a succession strategy for maintaining their control of the leadership.
From the FT: "Figures from the Office of National Statistics show overseas tourist visits to the UK rose 2 per cent in the first month after the Brexit vote, with holidaymakers spending £1.79bn in the month, up from the £1.77bn in June."
I'm slightly surprised that there was not more of an increase in July, especially as one would expect that July should be a big month for tourism. I'd also like to see the y-o-y figures.
I'd also like to see how much Britons spent overseas YoY. That figure should be down.
Does anyone on here actually believe that a hard Brexit (by which I mean no access to the single market beyond WTO rules) is advantageous for the UK.
Never mind whether the politics tend that way -- by itself, does anyone think it the best destination? And if so, why?
The only advantage to that would be speed and negotiating from the outside, we could probably come a mutual dropping of tariffs on goods immediately, but not NTBs and customs clearance which would have to be done from the outside.
It would also allow us to unilaterally impose our own immigration system and categorise all migration on the same level rather than privileging EU migration as we currently do or may continue to do after any deal.
The main advantage would be getting out of the customs union very quickly which would enable bilateral tariff elimination with nations such as Australia, Canada, NZ, Japan, SK, SA and others as a precursor to full free trading agreements. While we are locked in negotiations with the EU under A50 that is not going to be possible as all of our trade negotiators will be working on the EU deal.
So there are advantages, but I think the uncertainty for businesses would be to vast and it would drag on the economy for a very long time until we rebalance the economy.
Theresa May has helped lift support for the Conservative party in Wales to its highest level for six years. This is the stand-out finding from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, the first opinion poll to be conducted in Wales since the change of Prime Minister.
Owen whatshisface is less popular in Wales than Jez. Perfect candidate from a Tory point of view. So useless that he has legitimised Corbyn's leadership with an even bigger mandate from the members.
Agent Smith sent to the rescue of Agent Corbyn?
Argclu would have polled better than Smith, surely?
The only viable alternative to Corbyn before 2020 remains John McDonnell in my view
What scenario do you have in mind?
On current rules if Corbyn somehow vacates his post (death,resignation) , the PLP will nominate candidates. JMcD will not get the votes. Corbyn didn't this time.
If Corbyn is challenged again, why would JMcD enter the race?
Key point there is current rules. Corbyn is likely not going to step down until he has control over NEC, and can change the leadership election rules to reduce nominations threshold to 5% for example. Anyway, the PLP would be wise to accept JMcD in place of Corbyn. He would stand a better chance in 2020 as he could at least be taken more seriously, even if his ideas are ultimately likely to prove too unpalatable.
It's difficult to see how Corbyn will be able to take control of the NEC anytime soon. The way it looks to be set up now and into the future means he is going to have great difficulty changing rules in his favour or preventing rule changes that work against him. If McCluskey loses to a moderate candidate in the Unison leadership election (unlikely, but possible), then Corbyn is finished.
SO, I've sure you've said before, so I'm probably asking you to repeat yourself which is probably unfair, but given that 'the party' is now pretty much behind Corbyn in terms of the membership and that he is now what Labour is, how can you really remain a labour supporter in any way shape or form?
Many thanks to Southam and Gardenwalker for their Venice tips.
On the NEC, *if* the centre-left on the whole don't mind leftie policies too much but they want Laour to win and they feel Corbyn can't do it, it's actually in their interest to facilitate a left-wing candidate in the next leadership election by reducing the nomination hurdle (or allowing CLPs to nominate as David Herdson suggests!). Corbyn might one day decide to call it a day if he feltt hat a like-minded successor had a decent chance of succeeding him, but if the expectation is that nobody to the left of David Miliband will get past the nomination stage, then he'll stay on indefinitely unless forced out.
I would echo Southam's Jewish quarter recommendation - the origin of the word ghetto, from a time when the implications were less sinister, of course. Indeed Canaletto generally (the district at the north of the island) is good to wander round, as it's the closest to 'genuine' residential Venice, insofar as that still exists, and gets relatively few tourists.
The Grand Canal vaparatto route is the number 1 and is always an amazing ride, with very frequent stops (tip: buy a three day pass when you arrive, to save a fortune).
The boat trip to Burano (which leaves from Canaletto) is well worth it to see the lagoon as it was before Venice was developed, which makes what they achieved there all the more remarkable. Burano is delightful; another of the stops is at Torcello which is now almost deserted but was the 'original' island settlement before they changed their mind and relocated to Venice. Avoid Murano like the plague, it's simply a tourist hard sell for glass objects that mostly aren't made in Venice nowadays at all.
From the FT: "Figures from the Office of National Statistics show overseas tourist visits to the UK rose 2 per cent in the first month after the Brexit vote, with holidaymakers spending £1.79bn in the month, up from the £1.77bn in June."
I'm slightly surprised that there was not more of an increase in July, especially as one would expect that July should be a big month for tourism. I'd also like to see the y-o-y figures.
I'd also like to see how much Britons spent overseas YoY. That figure should be down.
The only viable alternative to Corbyn before 2020 remains John McDonnell in my view
Key point there is current rules. Corbyn is likely not going to step down until he has control over NEC, and can change the leadership election rules to reduce nominations threshold to 5% for example. Anyway, the PLP would be wise to accept JMcD in place of Corbyn. He would stand a better chance in 2020 as he could at least be taken more seriously, even if his ideas are ultimately likely to prove too unpalatable.
It's difficult to see how Corbyn will be able to take control of the NEC anytime soon. The way it looks to be set up now and into the future means he is going to have great difficulty changing rules in his favour or preventing rule changes that work against him. If McCluskey loses to a moderate candidate in the Unison leadership election (unlikely, but possible), then Corbyn is finished.
SO, I've sure you've said before, so I'm probably asking you to repeat yourself which is probably unfair, but given that 'the party' is now pretty much behind Corbyn in terms of the membership and that he is now what Labour is, how can you really remain a labour supporter in any way shape or form?
He just needs to study Liz Kendall's answers to essentially that question on yesterday's Question Time, and sort her words into some sort of order that actually makes logical sense.
Kendall's answer to that question says she's wrestling with her loyalty to the Party, as an organisation she joined a couple of decades ago and has given a lot of her life to supporting.
There will be 172 MPs thinking pretty much the same over the weekend, the question is how many of them will actually make the jump. The only defection that works needs to be of more than half the MPs, to make the new entity the official Opposition in Parliament and relegate Corbyn's Labour to the back benches. Do the moderates have it in them to jump, I'm not sure.
Does anyone on here actually believe that a hard Brexit (by which I mean no access to the single market beyond WTO rules) is advantageous for the UK.
Never mind whether the politics tend that way -- by itself, does anyone think it the best destination? And if so, why?
The only advantage to that would be speed and negotiating from the outside, we could probably come a mutual dropping of tariffs on goods immediately, but not NTBs and customs clearance which would have to be done from the outside.
It would also allow us to unilaterally impose our own immigration system and categorise all migration on the same level rather than privileging EU migration as we currently do or may continue to do after any deal.
The main advantage would be getting out of the customs union very quickly which would enable bilateral tariff elimination with nations such as Australia, Canada, NZ, Japan, SK, SA and others as a precursor to full free trading agreements. While we are locked in negotiations with the EU under A50 that is not going to be possible as all of our trade negotiators will be working on the EU deal.
So there are advantages, but I think the uncertainty for businesses would be to vast and it would drag on the economy for a very long time until we rebalance the economy.
Clearly the most sensible solution for both us and the EU would be for us to rapidly agree a time limited EEA (with restrictions on FoM), say a treaty with a five or seven year term.
We could then work with the EU on a permanent deal, while simultaneously entering into agreements with other countries (Canada, Australia, etc.). Business would be able to gradually adjust, rather than there being an abrupt imposition of tariffs and other limitations on trade.
And because the EEA agreement was time limited, the hard Brexiters couldn't argue that we were staying in the EU by the back door.
The advantage to the EU would be that it would minimise disruption for them too.
From the FT: "Figures from the Office of National Statistics show overseas tourist visits to the UK rose 2 per cent in the first month after the Brexit vote, with holidaymakers spending £1.79bn in the month, up from the £1.77bn in June."
I'm slightly surprised that there was not more of an increase in July, especially as one would expect that July should be a big month for tourism. I'd also like to see the y-o-y figures.
I'd also like to see how much Britons spent overseas YoY. That figure should be down.
There's a significant change from previous months:
From the FT: "Figures from the Office of National Statistics show overseas tourist visits to the UK rose 2 per cent in the first month after the Brexit vote, with holidaymakers spending £1.79bn in the month, up from the £1.77bn in June."
I'm slightly surprised that there was not more of an increase in July, especially as one would expect that July should be a big month for tourism. I'd also like to see the y-o-y figures.
I'd also like to see how much Britons spent overseas YoY. That figure should be down.
Difficult to oppose the Britannia nonsense. #1 £100m doesn't even register on the normal scale of government waste. #2 There would no doubt be a posh boat at the end of it so it sort of passes the Ronseal test in a way much government waste doesn't. And the best argument against it, that's a ludicrous diversion from the national task ahead of us, is the most abstract and challenging one. It seems voters are in the mood for Bread and Circuses. Or at least Circuses where they see Bread taken away from people they don't like. I doubt it's worth spending political capital fighting it to be honest.
It would be a prime target for terrorists, would it need permanent naval protection?
From the FT: "Figures from the Office of National Statistics show overseas tourist visits to the UK rose 2 per cent in the first month after the Brexit vote, with holidaymakers spending £1.79bn in the month, up from the £1.77bn in June."
I'm slightly surprised that there was not more of an increase in July, especially as one would expect that July should be a big month for tourism. I'd also like to see the y-o-y figures.
I'd also like to see how much Britons spent overseas YoY. That figure should be down.
I'd be interested to see a heat map of where these extra post Brexit tourist pounds are being spent. Something tells me Sunderland and Doncaster will be below average. The staycation spending may well be more evenly spread. Though of course if the post Brexit devaluation of the £ becomes permanent we'll need even more immigrants to service the tourism boom.
From the FT: "Figures from the Office of National Statistics show overseas tourist visits to the UK rose 2 per cent in the first month after the Brexit vote, with holidaymakers spending £1.79bn in the month, up from the £1.77bn in June."
I'm slightly surprised that there was not more of an increase in July, especially as one would expect that July should be a big month for tourism. I'd also like to see the y-o-y figures.
I'd also like to see how much Britons spent overseas YoY. That figure should be down.
There's a significant change from previous months:
So effectively a 10% change in year on year differences for both earnings and expenditure.
I'm not 100% convinced by how the "seasonally adjusted" number for July y-o-y works relative to the non-seasonally adjusted. Comparing July 2016 with July 2015 shows a 2% increase in spending, presumably as people had already booked their summer holidays.
Comments
Qualifications are discrete things.
The Pedants' revolt.
The Lord Ashcroft constituency polling at the last question effectively asked tactical voting question which indicated the Lib Dems holding onto 25ish seats.
In theory Labour ought to be haemorrhaging its Remain vote, not its Leave vote.
Indeed is it possibly going to be under 50% given the choice between the lacklustre and the barking mad?
Hilarious.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1835366/tory-mep-on-why-its-brilliant-in-brexit-britain-and-how-project-fears-lies-were-exposed/
You only have to think of common usage. "I won't be posting on PB tonight" is clearly a 'will' and not a 'would' statement.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/22/revealed-details-of-secret-naval-plans-for-a-new-100million-roya/
Agriculture and services much less so.
Hard Brexit favours German industry.
Miss Plato, things like 'wouldn't've'?
I use them.
Although I don't kill people.
Britannia is pretty much the size and shape of a modern frigate so makes sense for the navy to build the replacement.
Home ownership in other strong Remain constituencies:
Hammersmith 31%
Chelsea & Fulham 41%
Battersea 41%
Tooting 48%
Putney 46%
Wimbledon 63%
Richmond Park 63%
Twickenham 69%
I would describe the Conservative constituencies stretching from west London out to Surrey as 'Bankerland'. A very different and much more desirable area than 'Remainastan'.
To add: some constituencies - Hammersmith, Kensington, Westminster North, Tooting, Hampstead & Kilburn and Brentford & Isleworth are mixtures of 'Bankerland' and 'Remainastan'.
"Incidents of ‘Islamophobia’ are really getting out of hand in Britain. In fact there has been such a wave of attacks that it’s amazing that politicians and commentators across the political spectrum, (not to mention all those supposed ‘anti-fascist’ groups) aren’t grand-standing like crazy. Perhaps their problem is that this wave of attacks does not consist of people writing nasty and mean things on Twitter, but of Muslims killing other Muslims and still other Muslims extolling such killings.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/islamophobic-attacks-dont-hear/
Probably something that May could do that Cameron could not: I think this has always been about politics not economics.
But I agree that the NEC is pretty deadlocked, thanks to the federal structure.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/09/lord-ashcroft-what-my-focus-groups-said-about-clinton-and-trump-in-swing-part-of-wisconson-a-swing-state.html
"If a poll is a snapshot not a prediction, the same applies in spades to a set of focus groups. But there is something eerily familiar about some of the themes from our first week of research. Many people want a new direction, and seem prepared to accept the risks that they know go with it. Those who want change appear more motivated than those who would rather keep the status quo. And it is hard to see what new information will help people decide between the two. Now, where have we heard that before?
The only state to so do so.
Job done, no limit on articles.
Of the 18 Leaders of the Labour Party to date, only 4 ever won general elections.
I'm slightly surprised that there was not more of an increase in July, especially as one would expect that July should be a big month for tourism. I'd also like to see the y-o-y figures.
Load of people harking back to the 'golden age' of Wilson and moaning about the media if they support corbyn, or just very depressed if they're anti Corbyn.
On the NEC, *if* the centre-left on the whole don't mind leftie policies too much but they want Laour to win and they feel Corbyn can't do it, it's actually in their interest to facilitate a left-wing candidate in the next leadership election by reducing the nomination hurdle (or allowing CLPs to nominate as David Herdson suggests!). Corbyn might one day decide to call it a day if he feltt hat a like-minded successor had a decent chance of succeeding him, but if the expectation is that nobody to the left of David Miliband will get past the nomination stage, then he'll stay on indefinitely unless forced out.
Does anyone on here actually believe that a hard Brexit (by which I mean no access to the single market beyond WTO rules) is advantageous for the UK.
Never mind whether the politics tend that way -- by itself, does anyone think it the best destination? And if so, why?
That cost would be spent almost entirely in the UK of course, which makes it even more of a no-brainer, although given how long it took them to sort out a place for VIP use - which was no more than a refueler and troop carrier with a few biz class seats and sat phones - I'm not optimistic. Would look great for the PM to announce it at Conference though, she'll never have the political capital for these things that she does now.
Hard Brexit is on the cards, best plan for it:
Bloomberg - Brexit Bulletin: Banks Throw in the Towel on Clearing http://bloom.bg/2dcCEHN
*shifty eyes*
I only hadn't tried that because I didn't think their system would be so primitive.
+2% in July
Although as holidays are mostly booked in advance, I would expect there to be a bigger impact in 2017 than immediately.
Skiing next year is going to be very expensive.
It would also allow us to unilaterally impose our own immigration system and categorise all migration on the same level rather than privileging EU migration as we currently do or may continue to do after any deal.
The main advantage would be getting out of the customs union very quickly which would enable bilateral tariff elimination with nations such as Australia, Canada, NZ, Japan, SK, SA and others as a precursor to full free trading agreements. While we are locked in negotiations with the EU under A50 that is not going to be possible as all of our trade negotiators will be working on the EU deal.
So there are advantages, but I think the uncertainty for businesses would be to vast and it would drag on the economy for a very long time until we rebalance the economy.
The Grand Canal vaparatto route is the number 1 and is always an amazing ride, with very frequent stops (tip: buy a three day pass when you arrive, to save a fortune).
The boat trip to Burano (which leaves from Canaletto) is well worth it to see the lagoon as it was before Venice was developed, which makes what they achieved there all the more remarkable. Burano is delightful; another of the stops is at Torcello which is now almost deserted but was the 'original' island settlement before they changed their mind and relocated to Venice. Avoid Murano like the plague, it's simply a tourist hard sell for glass objects that mostly aren't made in Venice nowadays at all.
There will be 172 MPs thinking pretty much the same over the weekend, the question is how many of them will actually make the jump. The only defection that works needs to be of more than half the MPs, to make the new entity the official Opposition in Parliament and relegate Corbyn's Labour to the back benches. Do the moderates have it in them to jump, I'm not sure.
We could then work with the EU on a permanent deal, while simultaneously entering into agreements with other countries (Canada, Australia, etc.). Business would be able to gradually adjust, rather than there being an abrupt imposition of tariffs and other limitations on trade.
And because the EEA agreement was time limited, the hard Brexiters couldn't argue that we were staying in the EU by the back door.
The advantage to the EU would be that it would minimise disruption for them too.
Expenditure change year on year
Overseas visitors spending in UK
May -7%
June -9%
July +2%
UK visitors spending overseas
May +8%
Jun +7%
July -1%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourism/provisionalresultsforjuly2016
So effectively a 10% change in year on year differences for both earnings and expenditure.
Mrs BJ finally gets her Op with spinal chord almost completely severed today.
6hrs on the table went in an hour ago.
20% chance of being paralysed/incontinent for life(which is 100% chance without the op)
60% chance of stopping her getting worse ie walk a few paces not incontinent.
20% chance of some reasonable recovery.
On a less important note, The Messiah is reborn tomorrow