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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn has clearly won – the big question is the size of hi

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,212
    edited September 2016
    On Venice I was going to recommend the Streetwise laminated map of the city, being waterproof, pocket size (more or less) and detailed/well labelled enough to find your way around. The maps that come with guidebooks can be worse than useless (since they omit the smaller alleyways, and in Venice all the alleys are fairly small; having only half the roads on a map is guaranteed to confuse), and a fold-out one is a real nuisance as you'll be folding and unfolding it every few minutes.

    However sadly I see it appears no longer to be in print, and on Amazon is being offered second hand for between £80 and £250. For a pocket map that is ridiculous but does show how far above its competitors it was. Surely something similar must still be available?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 30% (-1)
    UKIP: 13% (-)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    (via YouGov / 19 - 21 Sep)
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    edited September 2016

    Mr. Palmer, Mr. Llama's comment reminded me of a Patrick Kielty joke about Irish stupidity.

    Something like: People say the Irish are stupid. But look at terrorism. When an Irishman blew himself up with a bomb it was a ****ing mistake, but these fundamentalist terrorists are doing it on purpose!

    Mr. Walker, so, merely the phlegm of Beelzebub, then? :p

    I'm instinctively against PR perhaps because it's rather boring to see it held up as the solution to all our problems so often.

    It has pluses and minuses.

    Then of course you have to choose your PR.

    STV is the skid stain of Moloch.

    EDIT: Paradoxically, I rather favour PR for local elections. Retains links to local grassroots simply because the electorate is not large. Not much fun living in Islington for a non-Labour type.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    edited September 2016

    IanB2 said:



    edit/ and my reading of Corbyn is that he is close to Mann on this one? The ultra-safe seats of FTPT, where the MP is effectively chosen by the Labour constituency committee, is how the hard left survives in British politics.

    Corbyn would have no problem whatever in Islington on any kind of election system. I've canvassed lots of Tories who vote for him! Granted, that might not be true of every leftie (or indeed other) MP.

    Thanks again for the Venice tips!
    Islington is not really a very representitive place though now is it...
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    PClipp said:

    IanB2 said:

    In electoral terms a switch en masse to the LibDems would actually be a better way of taking the Tories down, as the LibDem vote is ideally spread to win Tory seats, and there are many seats the LibDems could win that Labour never will. But the LD vote is just way too low to be electorally effective in doing so right now. Labour's trouble is the flip side of their FPTP ' lifejacket' - having a concentrated vote means they don't sink too far in terms of seats with a low vote, but need to rise very high to win alone, especially without Scotland.

    The trouble, of course, is that any such realignment would take time and be fraught with Labour's death throws, meanwhile the Tories get to rule unchallenged,

    It's now pretty obvious that the best way forward for everyone left of centre is some form of PR, so we can have a centre-left party (or two, if the LibDems stay separate) and a further-left party like virtually every other European country, and they can work together when electoral maths dictate. However, getting into government to deliver it is the challenge. I'd think that any kind of deal between Lab/LDs/Greens would focus around that point. Unlike the past, the Labour leadership will see clear advantages, but it also gives a survival option for heirs to Blair - Cameron in the same party as Liz Kendall, maybe?.
    It's good to see a Labour ex-MP espousing PR (hopefilly STV?) and apologies if you always have. What are the chances of getting it into the next Labour manifesto?
    Others on here have expressed surprise that the LibDems are still in single figures in the opinion polls when they are getting 20% to 30% swings in by-elections. It is a puzzle, could it be that the polls haven't caught up yet?
    There is not much point in having a policy in a manifesto, if the MPs are against it, Mr Song.

    The Labour manifesto for 2010 included a proposal for AV, and I suspect that is the reason why Nick Clegg went for that instead of proper reform in the shape of STV.

    But the Labour die-hards campaigned against it, and Mr Milliband sabotaged it from within - even though he himself drew up that particular Labour manifesto.

    The problem is that you cannot trust the Labour Party - individuals maybe, sometimes - but not as a whole.
    I think that Clegg went for AV as it was the only thing on offer.
    I can't see PR getting into the Labour manifesto unless most parts of the party had decided that it was a good or 'least bad' idea. Look at the alternative, the Labour party dying as a parliamentary party, becoming a 'movement' in the country that can safely be ignored. It would be an act of enlightened self interest to support PR, but put that way I suppose it is unlikely!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    One of Corbyn's problems has been his inability to haggle and to engage with MPs. He put himself in a bunker on day one and did not emerge. He has shown no willingness to compromise on policy or even to talk to shadow ministers he appointed about it.

    That was the old Jezza. The new Jezza is prepared to forgive those MPs who didn't get on with him last time.

    He is going to Olive branch the shit out of them...
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,799

    Lib Dem gain Hadleigh Suffolk CC from Conservatives

    LDem 642 36.2% plus 12.0%
    Con 460 25.9% minus 5.6%
    Lab 397 22.4% plus 5.8%
    UKIP 204 11.5% minus 11.3%
    Green 70 3.9% minus 1.0%

    Conservatives lose overall control of Suffolk CC

    How far did Suffolk get towards being a shell council running everything through private contractors in the end?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,916

    IanB2 said:



    edit/ and my reading of Corbyn is that he is close to Mann on this one? The ultra-safe seats of FTPT, where the MP is effectively chosen by the Labour constituency committee, is how the hard left survives in British politics.

    Corbyn would have no problem whatever in Islington on any kind of election system. I've canvassed lots of Tories who vote for him! Granted, that might not be true of every leftie (or indeed other) MP.

    Thanks again for the Venice tips!
    Islington is not really a very representitive place though now is it...
    It's very representative of Islington.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeMurphyLondon: Diane Abbott interview: Corbyn’s critics put themselves "at odds with members". Also, sez no to shad cab elections standard.co.uk/news/politics/…
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901



    One of Corbyn's problems has been his inability to haggle and to engage with MPs. He put himself in a bunker on day one and did not emerge. He has shown no willingness to compromise on policy or even to talk to shadow ministers he appointed about it. There are too many people who did seek to make the Corbyn shadow front bench work saying the same thing about the complete dysfunctionality of his leadership for them to be dismissed. And it won't change.

    Despite the leadership election, Corbyn's three major weakness remain.

    (1) He's not very good at leading and organising a political party*

    (2) He is a poor communicator outside public meetings and lecture mode

    (3) His policies are anachronistic

    Not sure what he is going to do about these. His "anti-politics" and retro appeal I fear can only take him so far.

    * Especially in forming a coalitions beyond his core support.
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    Lib Dem gain Hadleigh Suffolk CC from Conservatives

    LDem 642 36.2% plus 12.0%
    Con 460 25.9% minus 5.6%
    Lab 397 22.4% plus 5.8%
    UKIP 204 11.5% minus 11.3%
    Green 70 3.9% minus 1.0%

    Conservatives lose overall control of Suffolk CC

    UKIP the biggest loser again.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2016
    IanB2 said:

    On Venice I was going to recommend the Streetwise laminated map of the city, being waterproof, pocket size (more or less) and detailed/well labelled enough to find your way around. The maps that come with guidebooks can be worse than useless, and a fold-out one is a real nuisance as you'll be folding and unfolding it every few minutes.

    However sadly I see it appears no longer to be in print, and on Amazon is being offered second hand for between £80 and £250. For a pocket map that is ridiculous but does show how far above its competitors it was. Surely something similar must still be available?

    The DK "top ten" series always includes a foldable laminated map, tucked inside the back cover.

    Googlemaps on the phone is hard to beat, and the App Cityplanner is great for public transport in cities as well as maps. It was invaluable in Copenhagen this summer. Just clichk on the icon to know when the next bus is coming.

    It doesn't cover Venice though.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Mr. Palmer, Mr. Llama's comment reminded me of a Patrick Kielty joke about Irish stupidity.

    Something like: People say the Irish are stupid. But look at terrorism. When an Irishman blew himself up with a bomb it was a ****ing mistake, but these fundamentalist terrorists are doing it on purpose!

    Mr. Walker, so, merely the phlegm of Beelzebub, then? :p

    I :love: him, so funny years back - haven't seen in ages.
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    Labour Party info apparently that @jeremycorbyn is on 65%; Gordon Brown calls on people to respect the election

    They must respect the vote by the members of the Labour Party. Doubly so, as the members will have made their views clear twice in little over a year.

    If MPs think the views of the members of the Labour Party do not reflect their own views, they should probably leave the party. The party tolerated Corbyn's views and dissent for decades; it is clear that Corbyn's Labour Party will not tolerate even mild dissent.

    Many centrist Labour MPs face a choice: back down and support a leader and policies they disagree with. Fight again to try and 'win' the members and party towards their view (and a fat lot of good it's done them for the last year). Or decide the Labour Party is no longer their home and leave.

    The first contains a certain amount of hypocrisy.
    The second won't work until Labour's been trashed at the polls a few times, the party gets fed up with losing and a new Blairite centrist comes along.
    The third is a dangerous course, but perhaps the most truthful to their views. And the risks might be offset by the fact they'll be concerned about losing their seats anyway.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    @NickPalmer
    Do pack waterproof footwear.
    Perhaps it's obvious, but large parts of Venice actually flood up to the shins.

    To quote a well known comedian, "In another country a flooded city that stank of shit would be regarded as a disaster, not some fecking jewel in the crown"
    Lol - PB is so encouraging.
    I hope you have a great trip, Nick. You have the address, please do send me a post card.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,689
    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:


    Ok so no-one willing to argue standalone merits of hard Brexit.

    If one assumes some form of Brexit is now fait accompli, then perhaps we are all relatively aligned on destination, but differ on tactics.

    I wouldn't quite assume some form of Brexit yet, but it's likely.

    When it comes to the actual nature of Brexit the main parties are in the same box that they were over EU membership, ie there's a very motivated minority of their support base that wants something, and a larger part with some sympathy for it, but they think giving it to them would damage the things that most of the rest of their support base really want.

    The strategy to deal with it has always been to fudge, stall and occasionally grandstand, or if the worst comes to the worst hold a referendum. Telling the base you think they're wrong is generally unpopular with the base, which is why it's generally left to people who are no longer part of the government.
    It's a mess, but I guess messes are there to be dealt with. How do we respect the vote while limiting the damage, when half the population think it's sunlit uplands with no damage to be limited and the other half are pissed off by the whole thing anyway? The options as I see them are:

    (1) Fudge, ie EEA. No EEA+; no EEA-. Which means FOM as at present, otherwise it won't be the EEA. Respecting the vote would be the fact that we are no longer members of the EU, which on the narrow definition is what we voted for. We may be able to place a marker to say we expect to move to something else later. This would be a very hard political sell in the UK and I am not sure our EEA/EU partners would be up for the fudge either

    (2) Minimal deal. Use the Article 50 two year period to fix a minimal deal on the non controversial items: eg no tariffs on machinery and chemicals and a couple of other bits and pieces. Attempt a common WTO line on agricultural tariff quotas and perhaps a FTA that includes agricultural products. We then exit. Nothing on services, but adopting EU standards may partially save our bacon as long as we don't aggravate them too much. Not a great option, really, but I think it achievable.

    (3) Hotel California, ie comprehensive agreement with the EU before leave. Almost certainly will get bogged down in the mud and everyone will be very frustrated.
    Sign a five year EEA(+/-) deal with the EU that expires on 1 Jan 2022. Use the intervening time to (a) negotiate with with other countries, and (b) negotiatate with the EU.

    It's the only option that makes any sense.
    We'll see.

    Truthfully, EU membership is the only option that makes sense. That ship has sailed.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 30% (-1)
    UKIP: 13% (-)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    (via YouGov / 19 - 21 Sep)

    Meanwhile in the real world . All September council by elections so far ( 36,000 voters )

    Con 26.4% minus 3.3%
    Lab 29.6% minus 3.3%
    LDem 21.4% plus 12.0%
    UKIP 12.8% minus 1.5%
    Green 3.1% minus 3.4%
    Nat 4.6% plus 1.5%
    Oth 2.1% minus 2.1%
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,212

    PR is the excrement of Satan.

    ...says the man who thinks that cars being driven round in circles is some kind of sport, or even entertainment...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.
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    I know there are one or two gamers here, so hope you don't mind me linking to a piece I wrote, rambling about the failure of the PS4 Pro:
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/ps4-pro-why-it-has-already-failed.html
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    IanB2 said:

    On Venice I was going to recommend the Streetwise laminated map of the city, being waterproof, pocket size (more or less) and detailed/well labelled enough to find your way around. The maps that come with guidebooks can be worse than useless (since they omit the smaller alleyways, and in Venice all the alleys are fairly small; having only half the roads on a map is guaranteed to confuse), and a fold-out one is a real nuisance as you'll be folding and unfolding it every few minutes.

    However sadly I see it appears no longer to be in print, and on Amazon is being offered second hand for between £80 and £250. For a pocket map that is ridiculous but does show how far above its competitors it was. Surely something similar must still be available?

    The Internet-age secondhand book market is a strange beast - for recent (ISBN items) books it seems to have become driven more by supply/demand/price constraints than ever before.

    Gone is the concept of a '£10 book' that used to be the bread and butter of high st secondhand shops. Often available for pennies only...
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 30% (-1)
    UKIP: 13% (-)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    (via YouGov / 19 - 21 Sep)

    Meanwhile in the real world . All September council by elections so far ( 36,000 voters )

    Con 26.4% minus 3.3%
    Lab 29.6% minus 3.3%
    LDem 21.4% plus 12.0%
    UKIP 12.8% minus 1.5%
    Green 3.1% minus 3.4%
    Nat 4.6% plus 1.5%
    Oth 2.1% minus 2.1%
    How did the by election forecasting model work last time, did it predict 8 seats for the Lib Dems?
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    Mr. B2, show me the circular F1 track.

    Mr. Walker, Sir Edric's war horse is called Moloch. It means 'behemoth' in German, I think.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeMurphyLondon: Osborne is back! @George_Osborne leads fight against "naive, hard Brexit" standard.co.uk/news/politics/…
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,212
    nuovo thread
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,916
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 30% (-1)
    UKIP: 13% (-)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    (via YouGov / 19 - 21 Sep)

    Meanwhile in the real world . All September council by elections so far ( 36,000 voters )

    Con 26.4% minus 3.3%
    Lab 29.6% minus 3.3%
    LDem 21.4% plus 12.0%
    UKIP 12.8% minus 1.5%
    Green 3.1% minus 3.4%
    Nat 4.6% plus 1.5%
    Oth 2.1% minus 2.1%
    How did the by election forecasting model work last time, did it predict 8 seats for the Lib Dems?
    One of the things we forget is just how many by-elections didn't even have LibDem candidates last time around.
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    Scott_P said:

    One of Corbyn's problems has been his inability to haggle and to engage with MPs. He put himself in a bunker on day one and did not emerge. He has shown no willingness to compromise on policy or even to talk to shadow ministers he appointed about it.

    That was the old Jezza. The new Jezza is prepared to forgive those MPs who didn't get on with him last time.

    He is going to Olive branch the shit out of them...
    Unfortunately, it's likely to be John McDonnell wielding the branch...

    Picture the scene: Jeremy looks up from his (hemp) tea, peers, blinking, at his colleague.

    "John, is that really how you use an olive branch?"

    "Oh yes, Jeremy."

    "But is it really necessary to insert it *sideways*?"
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,212
    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    On Venice I was going to recommend the Streetwise laminated map of the city, being waterproof, pocket size (more or less) and detailed/well labelled enough to find your way around. The maps that come with guidebooks can be worse than useless (since they omit the smaller alleyways, and in Venice all the alleys are fairly small; having only half the roads on a map is guaranteed to confuse), and a fold-out one is a real nuisance as you'll be folding and unfolding it every few minutes.

    However sadly I see it appears no longer to be in print, and on Amazon is being offered second hand for between £80 and £250. For a pocket map that is ridiculous but does show how far above its competitors it was. Surely something similar must still be available?

    The Internet-age secondhand book market is a strange beast - for recent (ISBN items) books it seems to have become driven more by supply/demand/price constraints than ever before.

    Gone is the concept of a '£10 book' that used to be the bread and butter of high st secondhand shops. Often available for pennies only...
    Yes, and you remind me that I am old enough not to have thought of just using a satnav on a mobile....
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    Good Friday all round

    Mrs BJ finally gets her Op with spinal chord almost completely severed today.

    6hrs on the table went in an hour ago.

    20% chance of being paralysed/incontinent for life(which is 100% chance without the op)

    60% chance of stopping her getting worse ie walk a few paces not incontinent.

    20% chance of some reasonable recovery.

    On a less important note, The Messiah is reborn tomorrow

    My best wishes and prayers for her speedy and full recovery.
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    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    Who is Lord O'Neil?
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Osborne is back! @George_Osborne leads fight against "naive, hard Brexit" standard.co.uk/news/politics/…

    Good to see him back. I have warmed to the guy
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Labour Party info apparently that @jeremycorbyn is on 65%; Gordon Brown calls on people to respect the election

    They must respect the vote by the members of the Labour Party. Doubly so, as the members will have made their views clear twice in little over a year.

    If MPs think the views of the members of the Labour Party do not reflect their own views, they should probably leave the party. The party tolerated Corbyn's views and dissent for decades; it is clear that Corbyn's Labour Party will not tolerate even mild dissent.

    Many centrist Labour MPs face a choice: back down and support a leader and policies they disagree with. Fight again to try and 'win' the members and party towards their view (and a fat lot of good it's done them for the last year). Or decide the Labour Party is no longer their home and leave.

    The first contains a certain amount of hypocrisy.
    The second won't work until Labour's been trashed at the polls a few times, the party gets fed up with losing and a new Blairite centrist comes along.
    The third is a dangerous course, but perhaps the most truthful to their views. And the risks might be offset by the fact they'll be concerned about losing their seats anyway.
    Labour MPs represent Labour voters, not Labour members
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    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    The standalone merits of hard Brexit are the certainty of outcome, and the opportunity to get on with talking to the rest of the world, as against the uncertainty of extended negotiations with our European neighbours, all of whom have their own, different, agendas.

    But even if Hard Brexit is the preferred destination (by which I mean no trade deal at all with the EU, which I think is madness...), we would still be best off getting there as a series of steps over a period of five to ten years, rather than going cold turkey.
    I agree, the preferred outcome would be for a series of smaller steps to be made, rather than the Big Bang approach, I was replying to Mr @Gardenwalker's suggestion that no-one has stated the merits of the hard exit.

    No being in the single market custom's union means we can make our own trade deals with non EU countries like USA, India, China, Indonesia and Brazil.
    The customs union and the single market are different things. Norway is not a member of the customs union, but is in the single market. Turkey is in the customs union, but not the single market.
    The Uk does not want to be in the customs union because that prevents negotiating trade deals with the rest of the world.

    The UK does not want to be in the single market because that means still contributing around £200m a week to the EU.

    So the UK does not want to be in either the single market or the EU customs union.
    When you say "The UK", you mean "David Evershed".

    But, where's your source for £200m/week? That's more than the current net contribution to the EU budget.

    If the UK paid the same as the Swiss do, who are members of the single market in goods, and have a series of treaties regarding services, the number would be less than £2bn per year. Which is less than one fifth of your number.
    Once out of the EU the UK would no longer be entitled to the budget rebate negotiated by Thatcher.
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    Jobabob said:

    Labour Party info apparently that @jeremycorbyn is on 65%; Gordon Brown calls on people to respect the election

    They must respect the vote by the members of the Labour Party. Doubly so, as the members will have made their views clear twice in little over a year.

    If MPs think the views of the members of the Labour Party do not reflect their own views, they should probably leave the party. The party tolerated Corbyn's views and dissent for decades; it is clear that Corbyn's Labour Party will not tolerate even mild dissent.

    Many centrist Labour MPs face a choice: back down and support a leader and policies they disagree with. Fight again to try and 'win' the members and party towards their view (and a fat lot of good it's done them for the last year). Or decide the Labour Party is no longer their home and leave.

    The first contains a certain amount of hypocrisy.
    The second won't work until Labour's been trashed at the polls a few times, the party gets fed up with losing and a new Blairite centrist comes along.
    The third is a dangerous course, but perhaps the most truthful to their views. And the risks might be offset by the fact they'll be concerned about losing their seats anyway.
    Labour MPs represent Labour voters, not Labour members
    Indeed. But it looks as though the two are in danger of becoming rather divergent.
This discussion has been closed.