Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dreadful set of local election results overnight sees CON l

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dreadful set of local election results overnight sees CON lose 4 – their worst performance since TMay became leader

LD GAIN Hadleigh on Suffolk CC from CON. The 3rd LD gain this week and 4th CON loss of night

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,215
    1st!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,174
    And it's a terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826
    edited September 2016
    third like Labour
  • FPT: I know there are one or two gamers here, so hope you don't mind me linking to a piece I wrote, rambling about the failure of the PS4 Pro:
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/ps4-pro-why-it-has-already-failed.html
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,240
    Fpt:
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 30% (-1)
    UKIP: 13% (-)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    (via YouGov / 19 - 21 Sep)

    Meanwhile in the real world . All September council by elections so far ( 36,000 voters )

    Con 26.4% minus 3.3%
    Lab 29.6% minus 3.3%
    LDem 21.4% plus 12.0%
    UKIP 12.8% minus 1.5%
    Green 3.1% minus 3.4%
    Nat 4.6% plus 1.5%
    Oth 2.1% minus 2.1%
    How did the by election forecasting model work last time, did it predict 8 seats for the Lib Dems?
    Mr Max, you missed *innocent face* off that last post, my irony meter tells me....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,405
    @SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,405
    Meanwhile

    @IanDunt: The Osborne speech is genuinely very good. If Labour had even a tiddly trace of responsibility, they'd be making these arguments every day. twitter.com/lottiement/sta…
  • FPT:
    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,847
    Tories need to start getting used to council losses.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,681
    edited September 2016
    Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826
    edited September 2016
    FPT on LibDem poll ratings - worth remembering that the 'typical' pre-coalition pattern for the Libs/LibDems was a midterm poll rating than bounced around the 12-15% mark, which typically rose towards 20% as an election campaign got underway. They tended to be ignored when they weren't in the spotlight; conversely getting some publicity did them a huge favour (cf. Cleggmania).

    The good news therefore is that ratings of 8-10%, whilst low, aren't completely off the scale as far as past experience is concerned.

    The bad news is that, having been driven so low in parliament and with new competitors for being (treated as) the third party, the LibDems are unlikely to get so much exposure as previously, even during a GE.
  • Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time.

    Parish elections aren't included.
    I seem to have posted this before.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,240
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

    Given China and Northern Powerhouse seem to be less high up the agenda than under Osbo, I can't say this is a huge surprise. Shame though, as he is talented.
  • Jonathan said:

    Tories need to start getting used to council losses.

    Labour too.
  • Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

    Given China and Northern Powerhouse seem to be less high up the agenda than under Osbo, I can't say this is a huge surprise. Shame though, as he is talented.
    I'm hoping it's the beginning of a full scale (all 10 of them) Cameronite rebellion. Be good to get it crushed and out of the way early on.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,213
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/22/look-at-the-evidence-not-the-economists-for-the-effects-of-the-b/

    Not fun reading for anyone in forecasting. He's right though, the economic establishment has been wrong on every major call.
  • Mortimer said:

    Fpt:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 30% (-1)
    UKIP: 13% (-)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    (via YouGov / 19 - 21 Sep)

    Meanwhile in the real world . All September council by elections so far ( 36,000 voters )

    Con 26.4% minus 3.3%
    Lab 29.6% minus 3.3%
    LDem 21.4% plus 12.0%
    UKIP 12.8% minus 1.5%
    Green 3.1% minus 3.4%
    Nat 4.6% plus 1.5%
    Oth 2.1% minus 2.1%
    How did the by election forecasting model work last time, did it predict 8 seats for the Lib Dems?
    Mr Max, you missed *innocent face* off that last post, my irony meter tells me....
    It predicted losses, just not as many as actually occurred. Maybe the reverse is also true.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Picking up on the grammar pendant discussion from this morning, I have just noticed that this site's title bar includes the expression " Britain's most-read political blog...".

    "most-read", is that correct? Should there be a hyphen there? I should have thought the, "most read" would be the correct form.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,240

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

    Given China and Northern Powerhouse seem to be less high up the agenda than under Osbo, I can't say this is a huge surprise. Shame though, as he is talented.
    I'm hoping it's the beginning of a full scale (all 10 of them) Cameronite rebellion. Be good to get it crushed and out of the way early on.
    My favourite post Cameron floated idea was still the notion that Nicky Morgan might run for the leadership. Just bizarre. Only funnier suggestion would have been Matt Hancock...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826
    edited September 2016

    Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time.

    Parish elections aren't included.
    I seem to have posted this before.
    I think the honest answer is that for any individual contest the local circumstances (candidates, issues, circumstances of the vacancy, extent of campaigning) far outweigh national voting trends, BUT it is much easier to win a by-election when the national tide is in your favour, and not to when it isn't. Hence the aggregate trend of local by-elections is telling us something.

    My read is that the recent trend is an early indicator that the Tories are moving towards a spell of mid-term unpopularity and that voters are willing to given alternatives a chance, that Corbynism works in some areas of the country but doesn't in others (broadly urban yes, suburban/rural no), and that voters are now willing to give the LibDems a chance in areas where they have a presence, in a way that they weren't a few years back.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

    I used to work with Jim in research at Goldman, and he's a very serious guy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604

    Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

    For the LibDems they matter in two ways: Firstly, they create an activist base. People campaign in the local council by-election, then they go campaign (for example) in Witney. Secondly, they cheer people (like OGH) up.

    Now, none of these things automatically translate into votes in the General Election. By-elections wins, I would argue are a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for a more general recovery.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    IanB2 said:

    Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time.

    Parish elections aren't included.
    I seem to have posted this before.
    I think the honest answer is that for any individual contest the local circumstances (candidates, issues, circumstances of the vacancy, extent of campaigning) far outweigh national voting trends, BUT it is much easier to win a by-election when the national tide is in your favour, and not to when it isn't. Hence the aggregate trend of local by-elections is telling us something.

    My read is that the recent trend is an early indicator that the Tories are moving towards a spell of mid-term unpopularity and that voters are willing to given alternatives a chance, that Corbynism works in some areas of the country but doesn't in others (broadly urban yes, suburban/rural no), and that voters are now willing to give the LibDems a chance in areas where they have a presence, in a way that they weren't a few years back.
    A sensible and reasonable analysis - well done .
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,213

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,605

    Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

    They tell you something, but it's not always clear what that something is.

    The Tories are starting to lose quite a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems are starting to gain quite a lot of seats. *But* the Tories currently hold 43% of all local council seats, and the Lib Dems hold 9%. The former is a high figure for a government in its 7th year, while the latter is a low figure for the Lib Dems (back in 2010, they held about 20% of council seats). To a large extend, the Lib Dems are taking back the low-hanging fruit, rather like the gains the Conservatives made from Labour in 1997-2000.

    Labour are still becalmed, not having made a net gain at all.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,249
    Rejoice, Mr Smithson, our cracked pavements will be in good hands.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,196
    edited September 2016

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye
    Ever heard of the phrase 'BRIC'?

    May has gained Davis, Fox and Johnson and lost O'Neil. That's not a good trade.

    I wonder if he is planning to run for Manchester Mayor though.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,405
    With the Northern Powerhouse looking less likely, and hard Brexit more likely, George Osborne does seem to be positioning himself as the "I told you so" candidate.

    And winning praise from lefties in doing so.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,213
    Another of his wins was the national centre for excellence in graphene technologies for Manchester. I don't think it would have happened without him.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,240
    Scott_P said:

    With the Northern Powerhouse looking less likely, and hard Brexit more likely, George Osborne does seem to be positioning himself as the "I told you so" candidate.

    And winning praise from lefties in doing so.

    Relatively high risk for Osborne - I thought it was Cameron who liked a political gamble....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    He's an economist, not a banker.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,405
    Coral are offering 20/1 about Osborne next Tory leader.

    I'm on...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,213

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    The graphene centre, for one. Plus he has advocated for a proper industrial strategy in the North just as you and I would. As I said, he's not someone the government should be losing so easily. I think it may have been jis China obsession that did it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,866
    IanB2 said:

    Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time.

    Parish elections aren't included.
    I seem to have posted this before.
    I think the honest answer is that for any individual contest the local circumstances (candidates, issues, circumstances of the vacancy, extent of campaigning) far outweigh national voting trends, BUT it is much easier to win a by-election when the national tide is in your favour, and not to when it isn't. Hence the aggregate trend of local by-elections is telling us something.

    My read is that the recent trend is an early indicator that the Tories are moving towards a spell of mid-term unpopularity and that voters are willing to given alternatives a chance, that Corbynism works in some areas of the country but doesn't in others (broadly urban yes, suburban/rural no), and that voters are now willing to give the LibDems a chance in areas where they have a presence, in a way that they weren't a few years back.
    Good post.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826
    Sean_F said:

    Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

    They tell you something, but it's not always clear what that something is.

    The Tories are starting to lose quite a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems are starting to gain quite a lot of seats. *But* the Tories currently hold 43% of all local council seats, and the Lib Dems hold 9%. The former is a high figure for a government in its 7th year, while the latter is a low figure for the Lib Dems (back in 2010, they held about 20% of council seats). To a large extend, the Lib Dems are taking back the low-hanging fruit, rather like the gains the Conservatives made from Labour in 1997-2000.

    Labour are still becalmed, not having made a net gain at all.
    I agree but would bring in a point I made downthread - Labour's position is actually more nuanced than "becalmed", which simply reflects the average. Labour is actually polling well in cities, especially London, where I think there is a strong appeal particularly to younger private sector tenants, but is chalking up some appalling results elsewhere.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    New US polls

    National

    Marist:

    Clinton 48
    Trump 41

    AP

    Clinton 45
    Trump 35
    Johnson 9

    Big gap for Trump there. Third poll in 2 days with Clinton with a 6+ national lead with LV's
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Scott_P said:

    With the Northern Powerhouse looking less likely, and hard Brexit more likely, George Osborne does seem to be positioning himself as the "I told you so" candidate.

    And winning praise from lefties in doing so.

    Yes he comes across as a statesman who cares about his country - and has no confidence in the three clowns charged with delivering Brexit. I've warmed to him.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    JonathanD said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye
    Ever heard of the phrase 'BRIC'?

    May has gained Davis, Fox and Johnson and lost O'Neil. That's not a good trade.

    I wonder if he is planning to run for Manchester Mayor though.

    Mr. D.,

    "BRIC" yes I have have heard of the term. These were the tiger economies who where going to drive the world forward and become the economic power houses of the modern age. Brazil, Russia, India and China.

    What that has got to do with this chap O'Neil, I am not so sure. Was he the chap that coined the term, made the prophecy? In which case I am even less sure that he is a loss. As noted up thread most economists have gotten every major call wrong.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    The Manchester Metro Mayor will happen though - and rightly so
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,356
    CD13 said:

    Rejoice, Mr Smithson, our cracked pavements will be in good hands.

    Except for the Syrian refugee's when it comes to lib dems in charge,no room in the inn here.

    (Two faced B's)
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    The graphene centre, for one. Plus he has advocated for a proper industrial strategy in the North just as you and I would. As I said, he's not someone the government should be losing so easily. I think it may have been jis China obsession that did it.
    He was also focusing on what to do about drug resistant infections, one of those longer term threats we tend to discount in the day to day.

    Serious loss to the government, and an ill omen.

    Since May has gone forward with Hinckley, and hasn't resiled per se on the Northern Powerhouse -- perhaps he's been treated a bit shoddily.

    May and her advisors seem to have form on that.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,240
    edited September 2016
    Bob's newly found appreciation for Osborne is one of the more unlikely impacts of Brexit, I must say...
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    619 said:

    New US polls

    National

    Marist:

    Clinton 48
    Trump 41

    AP

    Clinton 45
    Trump 35
    Johnson 9

    Big gap for Trump there. Third poll in 2 days with Clinton with a 6+ national lead with LV's

    Yes - all eyes on FL polling now. If that starts to trend back to Hillary, Trump is in real trouble.
  • rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    He's an economist, not a banker.
    He's also an old boy of my old school

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,714
    Scott_P said:

    Coral are offering 20/1 about Osborne next Tory leader.

    I'm on...

    I think he might be the next +1. In the case of Brexit failure Cons are surely going to play a game of May not being Brexity enough and go more extreme before coming back to Osborne.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

    I used to work with Jim in research at Goldman, and he's a very serious guy.
    office was a shrine to man u though...
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    He's an economist, not a banker.
    An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Mortimer said:

    Bob's newly found appreciation for Osborne is one of the more unlikely impacts of Brexit, I must say...

    Ha! :)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,943

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    The graphene centre, for one. Plus he has advocated for a proper industrial strategy in the North just as you and I would. As I said, he's not someone the government should be losing so easily. I think it may have been jis China obsession that did it.
    He was also focusing on what to do about drug resistant infections, one of those longer term threats we tend to discount in the day to day.

    Serious loss to the government, and an ill omen.

    Since May has gone forward with Hinckley, and hasn't resiled per se on the Northern Powerhouse -- perhaps he's been treated a bit shoddily.

    May and her advisors seem to have form on that.
    And we thought Osborne had a clique. Tezza's has precisely one member.

    As has been noted, to import the three stooges and lose O'Neil is careless bordering on delinquent.
  • Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

    Given China and Northern Powerhouse seem to be less high up the agenda than under Osbo, I can't say this is a huge surprise. Shame though, as he is talented.
    Another of Osbo's people gone.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,605
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

    They tell you something, but it's not always clear what that something is.

    The Tories are starting to lose quite a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems are starting to gain quite a lot of seats. *But* the Tories currently hold 43% of all local council seats, and the Lib Dems hold 9%. The former is a high figure for a government in its 7th year, while the latter is a low figure for the Lib Dems (back in 2010, they held about 20% of council seats). To a large extend, the Lib Dems are taking back the low-hanging fruit, rather like the gains the Conservatives made from Labour in 1997-2000.

    Labour are still becalmed, not having made a net gain at all.
    I agree but would bring in a point I made downthread - Labour's position is actually more nuanced than "becalmed", which simply reflects the average. Labour is actually polling well in cities, especially London, where I think there is a strong appeal particularly to younger private sector tenants, but is chalking up some appalling results elsewhere.
    Yes, I agree with that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,943

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    He's an economist, not a banker.
    An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?
    An expert, @HurstLlama; have nothing to do with him.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,196
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    Coral are offering 20/1 about Osborne next Tory leader.

    I'm on...

    I think he might be the next +1. In the case of Brexit failure Cons are surely going to play a game of May not being Brexity enough and go more extreme before coming back to Osborne.
    I can't see the Tory party ever voting for him. He is either positioning himself for a re-alignment in UK politics or to be the successor to Ken Clarke.
  • MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    Indeed. Just because it was Osborne's darling, doesn't make it a bad idea.

    May's in danger of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Worse, it makes her government look more south-focused.

    The north needs some love.
  • Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

    Given China and Northern Powerhouse seem to be less high up the agenda than under Osbo, I can't say this is a huge surprise. Shame though, as he is talented.
    Another of Osbo's people gone.
    The so called security threat represented by Chinese investment was a major faux pas. Hinckley very criticisable, and no harm done by delaying so that May could signal her authority, but to question Chinese intent was very, very stupid.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    He's an economist, not a banker.
    An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?
    Goldman made tens of billions following his economic advice, how would you prefer to measure his success?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    King Robbo
    Just to be sure...We are counting on THESE PEOPLE to report about the election results in … https://t.co/tRMjI3uduB https://t.co/KxVMSkSfnF

    Lots of association, but doesn't help the perception
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,943
    edited September 2016
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

    They tell you something, but it's not always clear what that something is.

    The Tories are starting to lose quite a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems are starting to gain quite a lot of seats. *But* the Tories currently hold 43% of all local council seats, and the Lib Dems hold 9%. The former is a high figure for a government in its 7th year, while the latter is a low figure for the Lib Dems (back in 2010, they held about 20% of council seats). To a large extend, the Lib Dems are taking back the low-hanging fruit, rather like the gains the Conservatives made from Labour in 1997-2000.

    Labour are still becalmed, not having made a net gain at all.
    I agree but would bring in a point I made downthread - Labour's position is actually more nuanced than "becalmed", which simply reflects the average. Labour is actually polling well in cities, especially London, where I think there is a strong appeal particularly to younger private sector tenants, but is chalking up some appalling results elsewhere.
    Yes, I agree with that.
    After Coca Cola and Apple I would have thought the Labour brand is pretty strong, with many people Likely to disagree with Jezza's view on being in power who will try to vote them in regardless.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    He's an economist, not a banker.
    An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?
    An expert, @HurstLlama; have nothing to do with him.
    Well, you see I think experts ought to be, well, expert. To get calls right, to provide good advice. If my IFA got a call wrong I'd be looking at him askance. If he got two calls wrong I'd sack him. You might have different standards.
  • MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    Indeed. Just because it was Osborne's darling, doesn't make it a bad idea.

    May's in danger of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Worse, it makes her government look more south-focused.

    The north needs some love.
    Especially if you believe, as I do, that it is regional inequality and the underperformance of the country outside London, that holds back the entire country.
  • Afternoon all.

    @bigjohnowl

    Fingers crossed and good luck BJO - hoping for the best outcome for you and your good lady.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,026
    edited September 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    King Robbo
    Just to be sure...We are counting on THESE PEOPLE to report about the election results in … https://t.co/tRMjI3uduB https://t.co/KxVMSkSfnF

    Lots of association, but doesn't help the perception

    Small world....but unsurprising, as the Elite stick together*

    (*joke for those who get uptight about talk of the Elite vs the Plebs).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,213

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    He's an economist, not a banker.
    An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?
    I think that's extremely unfair, he's done some really good work in the North, a part of the country which has been neglected by Westminster for far too long. As I said, he supports a proper industrial strategy rather than our current free market approach.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,943

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    He's an economist, not a banker.
    An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?
    An expert, @HurstLlama; have nothing to do with him.
    Well, you see I think experts ought to be, well, expert. To get calls right, to provide good advice. If my IFA got a call wrong I'd be looking at him askance. If he got two calls wrong I'd sack him. You might have different standards.
    You must go through a lot of IFAs. That or the one who you have stuck with must be a billionaire.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    He's an economist, not a banker.
    An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?
    Goldman made tens of billions following his economic advice, how would you prefer to measure his success?
    Really? Which of the major problems did he predict in advance so that his company could position themselves to take advantage of?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,213

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    He's an economist, not a banker.
    An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?
    An expert, @HurstLlama; have nothing to do with him.
    Well, you see I think experts ought to be, well, expert. To get calls right, to provide good advice. If my IFA got a call wrong I'd be looking at him askance. If he got two calls wrong I'd sack him. You might have different standards.
    Fair enough, but Jim hasn't had any wrong calls I can think of, he called the BRICs boom exactly right and has correctly outlined the failure of our long term economic strategy in the North of England.
  • @bigjohnowls Fingers and everything else crossed for today. My thoughts are with you and Mrs BJO.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    He's an economist, not a banker.
    An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?
    I think that's extremely unfair, he's done some really good work in the North, a part of the country which has been neglected by Westminster for far too long. As I said, he supports a proper industrial strategy rather than our current free market approach.
    Theresa May has said she wants an industrial strategy. What has that got to do with it? What good work has this chap done in the North? Please, give me some specifics of actual achievement.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,605
    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

    They tell you something, but it's not always clear what that something is.

    The Tories are starting to lose quite a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems are starting to gain quite a lot of seats. *But* the Tories currently hold 43% of all local council seats, and the Lib Dems hold 9%. The former is a high figure for a government in its 7th year, while the latter is a low figure for the Lib Dems (back in 2010, they held about 20% of council seats). To a large extend, the Lib Dems are taking back the low-hanging fruit, rather like the gains the Conservatives made from Labour in 1997-2000.

    Labour are still becalmed, not having made a net gain at all.
    I agree but would bring in a point I made downthread - Labour's position is actually more nuanced than "becalmed", which simply reflects the average. Labour is actually polling well in cities, especially London, where I think there is a strong appeal particularly to younger private sector tenants, but is chalking up some appalling results elsewhere.
    Yes, I agree with that.
    After Coca Cola and Apple I would have thought the Labour brand is pretty strong, with many people Likely to disagree with Jezza's view on being in power who will try to vote them in regardless.
    Labour's brand is enormously strong.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,915
    Scott_P said:

    Coral are offering 20/1 about Osborne next Tory leader.

    I'm on...

    Just had a meeting with Zac Goldsmith who informed me that Philip Hammond has said he does not want to be PM. Perhaps this is already known, but if so, it is surprising that he is second favorite on Betfair as next PM.

    He also said that the LHR/LGW "decision" will be in early October and will consist of a stated "preference" by the Government followed by a free vote two weeks later.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    He's an economist, not a banker.
    An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?
    An expert, @HurstLlama; have nothing to do with him.
    Well, you see I think experts ought to be, well, expert. To get calls right, to provide good advice. If my IFA got a call wrong I'd be looking at him askance. If he got two calls wrong I'd sack him. You might have different standards.
    You must go through a lot of IFAs. That or the one who you have stuck with must be a billionaire.
    No just a fellow who has proved sound in his advice over a number of years. Nothing spectacular, nothing horrible. As I said, Mr. Topping, you and I seem to work to different standards.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,943
    @BJO

    Best wishes to you and Mrs BJO.
  • On topic, I forgot to ask my parents how they voted in the Hadleigh by-election. It seems that the collapse in the UKIP vote was as relevant as the slide in the Conservative vote.

    The Lib Dems for long had the county council seat in Hadleigh. So this is a reassertion of past local strength as much as a reflection on the Tories' transatlantic representation.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,665
    edited September 2016
    Theresa May is averaging over 40% in the polls compared to 38% for the Tories at the last election.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2016
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,129

    Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

    It seems to be the preserve of amateurs with spreadsheets using their data primarily for collation (e.g. Andrew Teale and a few on here) and a few major players run very indirect analyses based on complicated data manipulations (e.g. NEV from Rawling and Thrasher, Electoral Calculus who if you expand their seat predictions are doing all sorts with the data). A substantial issue is that there is no mandated reporting requirement for council election results, at least in England, formats are very variable, and multi-seat wards and STV are complicating factors, so a lot of work is needed to put things together.

    I've been dabbling in this myself, trying to get a national one vote per person 'last voted' picture from council elections and see how it fits, but I'm only up to date with the 2014 picture* and haven't worked backwards or forwards. The raw figures from 2014 are:

    Conservative 27.6%
    Labour 31.1%
    LD 11.7%
    UKIP 12.7%
    Greens 4.6%
    Nats 4.0%
    Others / Ind 8.3%

    * includes 2014 metro & by-third unitaries, 2013 counties, last 1 in 4 elections from London, Scotland, Wales, and 1in4 unitaries (all 2011 to 2014) (excludes by third or 1in2 districts). 2015 figures when I complete collation will have a GE weighting attached to them, but I'm not seeing that much reason to weight between GE years.

    These would be the last figures going into GE15, so looking in hindsight at that, the numbers above may have given a clear warning sign about the maximum vote Labour could hope for and the Nat rise, but not so much insight on the Conservative side (though I'm thinking of looking at the split weighted by Ind vote count to see how much Ind tends Conservative) or on the scale of disaster that was awaiting the LDs.
  • TOPPING said:

    @BJO

    Best wishes to you and Mrs BJO.

    Seconded (or forty seconded as the case may be).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,213

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?
    He's an economist, not a banker.
    An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?
    I think that's extremely unfair, he's done some really good work in the North, a part of the country which has been neglected by Westminster for far too long. As I said, he supports a proper industrial strategy rather than our current free market approach.
    Theresa May has said she wants an industrial strategy. What has that got to do with it? What good work has this chap done in the North? Please, give me some specifics of actual achievement.
    As I mentioned above, the Manchester graphene centre would not have have happened without his involvement. You and I have both lamented in the past about how UK innovations seemed to he outsourced and offshore by foreign companies, we had someone at the top willing to speak out against that. Sadly we've lost that voice, through nothing more than carelessness it seems.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    I must go. My sincere thanks for the interesting discussions on here this morning. I am greatly obliged to those who have given me things to think about and/or replied to my questions.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,665
    edited September 2016

    Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

    Rallings and Thrasher used to think they were useful in the 1990s but about 10 years ago concluded they weren't of any use in terms of forecasting the national result.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,110

    TOPPING said:

    @BJO

    Best wishes to you and Mrs BJO.

    Seconded (or forty seconded as the case may be).
    Thanks to everyone for their kind words, just come away for a bit as told Op will take at least a further 3 hours.

    Horrible waiting but remaining optimistic.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,196
    edited September 2016

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    Indeed. Just because it was Osborne's darling, doesn't make it a bad idea.

    May's in danger of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Worse, it makes her government look more south-focused.

    The north needs some love.
    Especially if you believe, as I do, that it is regional inequality and the underperformance of the country outside London, that holds back the entire country.
    Sadly May does not seem to interested in the rest of the country outside London and instead prefers to play political games rather than actually doing something constructive.

    "Mrs May’s primary concerns regarding English devolution is that she’s nervous about giving senior Labour politicians a platform and giving them the opportunity to consolidate and reinforce their fragmenting heartlands."

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/nikki-knowles/brexit_b_12132854.html

    I see also that part of O'Neill's reasons for resigning is May's grammar school faff. No doubt he will just be dismissed as a posh boy, who went to a private school and wants to keep the elites entrenched position.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

    They tell you something, but it's not always clear what that something is.

    The Tories are starting to lose quite a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems are starting to gain quite a lot of seats. *But* the Tories currently hold 43% of all local council seats, and the Lib Dems hold 9%. The former is a high figure for a government in its 7th year, while the latter is a low figure for the Lib Dems (back in 2010, they held about 20% of council seats). To a large extend, the Lib Dems are taking back the low-hanging fruit, rather like the gains the Conservatives made from Labour in 1997-2000.

    Labour are still becalmed, not having made a net gain at all.
    I agree but would bring in a point I made downthread - Labour's position is actually more nuanced than "becalmed", which simply reflects the average. Labour is actually polling well in cities, especially London, where I think there is a strong appeal particularly to younger private sector tenants, but is chalking up some appalling results elsewhere.
    Yes, I agree with that.
    After Coca Cola and Apple I would have thought the Labour brand is pretty strong, with many people Likely to disagree with Jezza's view on being in power who will try to vote them in regardless.
    Labour's brand is enormously strong.
    Woolworth.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,668
    edited September 2016
    JonathanD said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.
    Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.
    Indeed. Just because it was Osborne's darling, doesn't make it a bad idea.

    May's in danger of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Worse, it makes her government look more south-focused.

    The north needs some love.
    Especially if you believe, as I do, that it is regional inequality and the underperformance of the country outside London, that holds back the entire country.
    Sadly May does not seem to interested in the rest of the country outside London and instead prefers to play political games rather than actually doing something constructive.

    "Mrs May’s primary concerns regarding English devolution is that she’s nervous about giving senior Labour politicians a platform and giving them the opportunity to consolidate and reinforce their fragmenting heartlands."

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/nikki-knowles/brexit_b_12132854.html

    I see also that part of O'Neill's reasons for resigning is May's grammar school. No doubt he will just be dismissed as a posh boy, who went to a private school and wants to keep the elites entrenched position.
    Stupid if so, as he grew up in Stockport and went to the local comprehensive.

    Just the sort of person you'd be desperate to keep if you were a modern, One Nation Tory party.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,110
    Interesting set of By Election results.

    Seems strangely at odds with polls but i guess local circumstances at least partly responsible.

    3 Lab gains, wonder when that last happened!!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sean_F said:

    Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

    They tell you something, but it's not always clear what that something is.

    The Tories are starting to lose quite a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems are starting to gain quite a lot of seats. *But* the Tories currently hold 43% of all local council seats, and the Lib Dems hold 9%. The former is a high figure for a government in its 7th year, while the latter is a low figure for the Lib Dems (back in 2010, they held about 20% of council seats). To a large extend, the Lib Dems are taking back the low-hanging fruit, rather like the gains the Conservatives made from Labour in 1997-2000.

    Labour are still becalmed, not having made a net gain at all.
    I think that in part we are seeing voters disenchanted with national parties that are interested in finerey but not in bread and butter issues.

    It suits the mood of disenchantment to have local parties (LD and Lab in particular) that take up the role of opposition to government policies, when the national parties navel gaze.

    It is worth noting also that since grammar schools (a local issue for local people) re-emerged as a political football the Tory results have worsened. It may be playing very poorly on the doorsteps, and energising LD and Lab activists.

    Best wishes to Mrs BJO BTW.
  • TOPPING said:

    @BJO

    Best wishes to you and Mrs BJO.

    Seconded (or forty seconded as the case may be).
    Thanks to everyone for their kind words, just come away for a bit as told Op will take at least a further 3 hours.

    Horrible waiting but remaining optimistic.
    It's tough feeling like just a bystander while these kind of things are going on. Please add my best wishes to the rest of the PB throng.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,203
    @rcs1000 FPT

    Islington is very representative of Islington?

    How well does PRC represent your needs?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,427

    Picking up on the grammar pendant discussion from this morning, I have just noticed that this site's title bar includes the expression " Britain's most-read political blog...".

    "most-read", is that correct? Should there be a hyphen there? I should have thought the, "most read" would be the correct form.

    I think you're right. Most is an adverb, so the phrase should not be hyphenated.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,203

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

    This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.
    Why?

    An average Goldmans partner who was best known for coining the phrase "BRICs" 15 years ago realises that for all the time he spent kissing ar*e, he'd been kissing the wrong one and decides not to waste his time where there is no preferment on the horizon.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,330
    @bigjohnowls Hope all goes well for your wife today.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,706
    edited September 2016
    Blair and Cameron lost local government by elections, Hague and Miliband won them, they are largely useless in identifying any national trend. Far more significant is yougov today which has the Tories up two percent on the general election to 39% under May
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826
    edited September 2016

    On topic, I forgot to ask my parents how they voted in the Hadleigh by-election. It seems that the collapse in the UKIP vote was as relevant as the slide in the Conservative vote.

    The Lib Dems for long had the county council seat in Hadleigh. So this is a reassertion of past local strength as much as a reflection on the Tories' transatlantic representation.

    The interesting thing is that what some years ago was the common assumption - that UKIP would take anti-EU votes from the Tories - has turned out to be dramatically wrong.

    For every retired Sussex Colonel who switched Tory to UKIP there have been plenty of WWC Labour-to-UKIP switchers as well as NOTO/protest LibDem to UKIP voters. So as UKIP unwinds the benefit isn't accruing to the Tories as once would have been thought, and the "Tory + UKIP votes = right-wing majority" line is misguided.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,706
    Jobabob said:

    619 said:

    New US polls

    National

    Marist:

    Clinton 48
    Trump 41

    AP

    Clinton 45
    Trump 35
    Johnson 9

    Big gap for Trump there. Third poll in 2 days with Clinton with a 6+ national lead with LV's

    Yes - all eyes on FL polling now. If that starts to trend back to Hillary, Trump is in real trouble.
    Trump is presently polling better than any Republican candidate since George W Bush on average with RCP, he is not in trouble yet and of course the first debate is on Monday
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,330
    Waugh implies that O'Neil's letter implies that plug hasn't been pulled from Northern Powerhouse.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,665
    Labour would be close to losing seats to the Tories in Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn & Deeside and Delyn with today's Welsh barometer opinion poll:

    http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-09-23/owen-smith-less-popular-in-wales-than-jeremy-corbyn-as-tories-cut-labours-lead/
This discussion has been closed.