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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters continue to make Clinton a 60%+ chance even though

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters continue to make Clinton a 60%+ chance even though the polling remains very tight

This is, of course, all about the outcomes in the key swing states but the national surveys gives us a good overview of the election that takes place in just 46 days time.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,889
    No comments yet?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,002
    Second like Smith!
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,889
    Oh! First.
  • 4th like spurs at the end of the season...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,002
    MTimT said:

    Oh! First.

    You beat yourself to first... schoolboy error.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,174
    edited September 2016
    Sixth like Man Utd.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,130
    edited September 2016
    tlg86 said:

    Sixth like Man Utd.

    or actually 6th like Liverpool...

    sneaky edit there! tse's Yorkshire link is lost
  • Non-runner – much like Angela Eagle…
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,174

    tlg86 said:

    Sixth like Man Utd.

    or actually 6th like Liverpool...

    sneaky edit there! tse's Yorkshire link is lost
    I know, Yorkshire's reign as champions is over. Too bad it was that county that does not exist that took the title.
  • Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 147
    edited September 2016
    Just from what I see on C-Span, both candidates are looking quite haggard. This is quite a difference from '84 when a spry but doomed Mondale faced off against an even more apparently invigorated Reagan (despite having been literally gunned down a couple years before.)
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,762
    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,889
    Whatever happened to Assange's devastating leaks against Hillary? Any sign of them, or were they so anodyne that I missed them?
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sixth like Man Utd.

    or actually 6th like Liverpool...

    sneaky edit there! tse's Yorkshire link is lost
    I know, Yorkshire's reign as champions is over. Too bad it was that county that does not exist that took the title.
    Proof that just because a county doesn't have a county council doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Cheshire and IIRC Berkshire are other examples.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,002
    MTimT said:

    Whatever happened to Assange's devastating leaks against Hillary? Any sign of them, or were they so anodyne that I missed them?

    If he's got something, why release them now?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,889
    RobD said:

    MTimT said:

    Whatever happened to Assange's devastating leaks against Hillary? Any sign of them, or were they so anodyne that I missed them?

    If he's got something, why release them now?
    I thought he had promised something in September ,,, maybe wrong. October makes more sense.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,174

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sixth like Man Utd.

    or actually 6th like Liverpool...

    sneaky edit there! tse's Yorkshire link is lost
    I know, Yorkshire's reign as champions is over. Too bad it was that county that does not exist that took the title.
    Proof that just because a county doesn't have a county council doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Cheshire and IIRC Berkshire are other examples.
    During the 2011 Census we had requests for data for Middlesex. I was in favour of politely pointing out that it doesn't exist. I was overruled.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    Just from what I see on C-Span, both candidates are looking quite haggard. This is quite a difference from '84 when a spry but doomed Mondale faced off against an even more apparently invigorated Reagan (despite having been literally gunned down a couple years before.)


    regan forgot he had been shot.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited September 2016
    619 said:


    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes

    Why do you see those as a huge negative for him. Is it not possible that a good slew of voters will vote for him - because - he supposedly has those views?

    The second will get him a good few votes and as for the first parts ofAmerica is more like South Africa used to be than South Africa is. Outside places like NY most people lead pretty segregated lives
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,706
    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
  • Like OGH I'm currently weighted towards Donald Trump. My reading is that he may well do ok in the debates and he is accordingly likely to shorten.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,174
    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    There might be a bit of being wise after the event, but there's been a fair amount of analysis that suggests that the leave campaign was a lot better than was portrayed at the time.

    There was a curious moment in the documentary last night when Boris met a local campaign manager (can't remember where, may have been Leicestershire) and the manager was very bullish about how things were going locally. Perhaps it's confirmation bias but Boris did look taken aback by that as though that wasn't quite what he wanted to hear.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sixth like Man Utd.

    or actually 6th like Liverpool...

    sneaky edit there! tse's Yorkshire link is lost
    I know, Yorkshire's reign as champions is over. Too bad it was that county that does not exist that took the title.
    Proof that just because a county doesn't have a county council doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Cheshire and IIRC Berkshire are other examples.
    During the 2011 Census we had requests for data for Middlesex. I was in favour of politely pointing out that it doesn't exist. I was overruled.
    Correctly. If you rely on county councils you end up with absurdities like Derby not being in Derbyshire.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,762
    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    http://politi.co/2ctpJjA

    lying ted cruz bends over for the man who accused his dad of killing jfk and who called his wife ugly
  • 619 said:

    http://politi.co/2ctpJjA

    lying ted cruz bends over for the man who accused his dad of killing jfk and who called his wife ugly

    Worried?
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    619 said:


    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes

    Why do you see those as a huge negative for him. Is it not possible that a good slew of voters will vote for him - because - he supposedly has those views?

    The second will get him a good few votes and as for the first parts ofAmerica is more like South Africa used to be than South Africa is. Outside places like NY most people lead pretty segregated lives
    1. most people dont want to start a war involving nukes, especially if they act as unhinged as trump does.
    2. the same poll said had 69% of people saying that they were concerned about trumps views on immigrants and black people.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,866
    Anna Soubry takes a dim view of the local boundary changes - but at present just urging people to contact the Commissioners:

    https://bramcotetoday.org.uk/2016/09/23/news-from-anna-soubry-mp-september-23-2016/#more-25848

    I've not expressed a view on the local changes (which divide Broxtowe into two, both of them less Tory than the current one because of additions from outside).
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    619 said:

    http://politi.co/2ctpJjA

    lying ted cruz bends over for the man who accused his dad of killing jfk and who called his wife ugly

    Worried?

    anything higher than a 25% chance for trump winning worries me, because he is a crazy racist

    flip flopping cruz wont move the dial either way, i just find it funny h being humiliated
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,706
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    There might be a bit of being wise after the event, but there's been a fair amount of analysis that suggests that the leave campaign was a lot better than was portrayed at the time.

    There was a curious moment in the documentary last night when Boris met a local campaign manager (can't remember where, may have been Leicestershire) and the manager was very bullish about how things were going locally. Perhaps it's confirmation bias but Boris did look taken aback by that as though that wasn't quite what he wanted to hear.
    Clearly they had some GOTV operation but much of it seemed to be based on street stalls
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,203

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sixth like Man Utd.

    or actually 6th like Liverpool...

    sneaky edit there! tse's Yorkshire link is lost
    I know, Yorkshire's reign as champions is over. Too bad it was that county that does not exist that took the title.
    Proof that just because a county doesn't have a county council doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Cheshire and IIRC Berkshire are other examples.
    During the 2011 Census we had requests for data for Middlesex. I was in favour of politely pointing out that it doesn't exist. I was overruled.
    Correctly. If you rely on county councils you end up with absurdities like Derby not being in Derbyshire.
    Kansas City isn't in Kansas...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,706
    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Albeit Leave got 17 million, rather short of its 50 million target then even if it did narrowly win! Presumably Trump's campaign must have identified some supporters in the primaries too
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,889

    619 said:


    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes

    Why do you see those as a huge negative for him. Is it not possible that a good slew of voters will vote for him - because - he supposedly has those views?

    The second will get him a good few votes and as for the first parts ofAmerica is more like South Africa used to be than South Africa is. Outside places like NY most people lead pretty segregated lives
    I used to have a house in a small Virginian town of 650 souls. The black area of town was referred to as Jamaica by everyone without a hint of awareness that it might offend. There was virtually no integration of whites and blacks, regardless of education or income level. Latinos lived mainly in the white part of town.

    This is not ancient history - it holds to this day.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited September 2016
  • Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sixth like Man Utd.

    or actually 6th like Liverpool...

    sneaky edit there! tse's Yorkshire link is lost
    I know, Yorkshire's reign as champions is over. Too bad it was that county that does not exist that took the title.
    Proof that just because a county doesn't have a county council doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Cheshire and IIRC Berkshire are other examples.
    During the 2011 Census we had requests for data for Middlesex. I was in favour of politely pointing out that it doesn't exist. I was overruled.
    Correctly. If you rely on county councils you end up with absurdities like Derby not being in Derbyshire.
    Kansas City isn't in Kansas...
    Kansas City, Missouri isn't but Kansas City, Kansas is...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,854
    Did Schultz really say no single mrket access without free movement? Surely almost everyone has 'access' to the single market? Membership without free movement would obviously be a non-starter but what are they up to?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,665

    Anna Soubry takes a dim view of the local boundary changes - but at present just urging people to contact the Commissioners:

    https://bramcotetoday.org.uk/2016/09/23/news-from-anna-soubry-mp-september-23-2016/#more-25848

    I've not expressed a view on the local changes (which divide Broxtowe into two, both of them less Tory than the current one because of additions from outside).

    Not surprising, her life is made rather difficult by them.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,174

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sixth like Man Utd.

    or actually 6th like Liverpool...

    sneaky edit there! tse's Yorkshire link is lost
    I know, Yorkshire's reign as champions is over. Too bad it was that county that does not exist that took the title.
    Proof that just because a county doesn't have a county council doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Cheshire and IIRC Berkshire are other examples.
    During the 2011 Census we had requests for data for Middlesex. I was in favour of politely pointing out that it doesn't exist. I was overruled.
    Correctly. If you rely on county councils you end up with absurdities like Derby not being in Derbyshire.
    Sorry, when I say overruled, I mean I had to be more polite. If you want to see the results for the old ceremonial county of Derbyshire you can combine Derby and Derbyshire CC. Middlesex, on the other hand, does not exist. It got split up in to Greater London Councils and I believe a bit went to Surrey.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,889
    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sixth like Man Utd.

    or actually 6th like Liverpool...

    sneaky edit there! tse's Yorkshire link is lost
    I know, Yorkshire's reign as champions is over. Too bad it was that county that does not exist that took the title.
    Proof that just because a county doesn't have a county council doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Cheshire and IIRC Berkshire are other examples.
    During the 2011 Census we had requests for data for Middlesex. I was in favour of politely pointing out that it doesn't exist. I was overruled.
    Correctly. If you rely on county councils you end up with absurdities like Derby not being in Derbyshire.
    Kansas City isn't in Kansas...
    Oh, but it is! The actual conurbation straddles the state line. There is a Kansas City, MO, and a Kansas City, KS. The latter is the 3rd largest city in KS, and the 3rd largest city of the areas making up Kansas City metropolitan area.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,706
    619 said:

    http://politi.co/2ctpJjA

    lying ted cruz bends over for the man who accused his dad of killing jfk and who called his wife ugly

    He wants the nomination in 2020 if Trump loses, that will be the reason
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sixth like Man Utd.

    or actually 6th like Liverpool...

    sneaky edit there! tse's Yorkshire link is lost
    I know, Yorkshire's reign as champions is over. Too bad it was that county that does not exist that took the title.
    Proof that just because a county doesn't have a county council doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Cheshire and IIRC Berkshire are other examples.
    During the 2011 Census we had requests for data for Middlesex. I was in favour of politely pointing out that it doesn't exist. I was overruled.
    Correctly. If you rely on county councils you end up with absurdities like Derby not being in Derbyshire.
    Kansas City isn't in Kansas...
    The USA is in many ways a strange and sometimes wonderful place. No reason why we should try and copy it, though.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,665
    edited September 2016
    Astonishing YouGov finding:

    "Labour has lost the support of more than half of those who voted Labour in 2015 and Brexit in 2016, according to new Times/YouGov polling.
    Just 48 per cent of Brexit-backing Labour voters said they would stick with the party in the next election. Nine per cent said they would switch to the Tories and eight per cent to UKIP."


    https://leftfootforward.org/2016/09/brexit-voters-are-ditching-labour/
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Did u campaign with them?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    http://politi.co/2ctpJjA

    lying ted cruz bends over for the man who accused his dad of killing jfk and who called his wife ugly

    He wants the nomination in 2020 if Trump loses, that will be the reason
    A disastrous Clinton presidency (which is a near certainty) will help the Republican candidate immensely in 2020.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,174
    edited September 2016
    MP_SE said:
    Who's column is that in, Jezza's?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,889
    tlg86 said:

    MP_SE said:
    Who's column is that in, Jezza's?
    No. He would have called her a Tory ...
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Albeit Leave got 17 million, rather short of its 50 million target then even if it did narrowly win! Presumably Trump's campaign must have identified some supporters in the primaries too
    A bit hard to get 50 million when the electorate was only 44 million.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    I wonder how many people took part in the competition.
  • Mr. 86, I think it's Rod Liddle's.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,665
    "New Times: John Harris on why Labour is losing its heartland
    Conventional class-consciousness has been overtaken by collective resentment. We must face the fact Labour as we know it may very well soon not exist."

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2016/09/new-times-john-harris-why-labour-losing-its-heartland
  • Anna Soubry takes a dim view of the local boundary changes - but at present just urging people to contact the Commissioners:

    https://bramcotetoday.org.uk/2016/09/23/news-from-anna-soubry-mp-september-23-2016/#more-25848

    I've not expressed a view on the local changes (which divide Broxtowe into two, both of them less Tory than the current one because of additions from outside).

    I would have voted UKIP in your constituency, even if that had let you in.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,174
    MTimT said:

    tlg86 said:

    MP_SE said:
    Who's column is that in, Jezza's?
    No. He would have called her a Tory ...
    I knew someone would think I meant Corbyn. I meant Clarkson.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Did Schultz really say no single mrket access without free movement? Surely almost everyone has 'access' to the single market? Membership without free movement would obviously be a non-starter but what are they up to?

    At most I suspect they are deliberately trying to confuse. You see it on this site everyday where people say access when what they are talking about is membership. Sometimes it is just sloppy thinking, sometimes, perhaps, it is just a subtle extension of project fear.

    Looking around my study very little of the goodies have been made in the EU, save probably most of the books. The keyboard on which I type, the computers, the monitors, the Kindle, the phone, the printer have all been made in countries that are not members of the single market and which do not have a free trade agreement with the EU. Yet they were all bought here in the UK.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,762
    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Did u campaign with them?
    As I say, I was a constituency co-ordinator. So there on the ground throughout and fielding a lot of emails and calls around the day job too.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited September 2016

    Like OGH I'm currently weighted towards Donald Trump. My reading is that he may well do ok in the debates and he is accordingly likely to shorten.

    It may have been a strategy of his to get the mad racist stuff out there early to attract the kind of people it attracts, and play nice from here on in to help the people it offends, forget about it. A combination of that, and another Hillary health glitch, might put him in with a serious shout.

  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,762
    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Albeit Leave got 17 million, rather short of its 50 million target then even if it did narrowly win! Presumably Trump's campaign must have identified some supporters in the primaries too
    A bit hard to get 50 million when the electorate was only 44 million.
    We could dream!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 27,255
    edited September 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Albeit Leave got 17 million, rather short of its 50 million target then even if it did narrowly win! Presumably Trump's campaign must have identified some supporters in the primaries too
    I think people are conflating Trump and Leave too much.

    Leave in the UK might turn out to be something of a unique case. The EU was uniquely overbearing and the status quo membership of the UK had become politically untenable here.

    Leave won because it combined the 35-40% voting against immigration and concerned about globalisation with the 10-15% who were concerned about sovereignty.

    Without either of the other Leave couldn't have won. In the US, it might transpire that Trump just has the former.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Ishmael_X said:

    Like OGH I'm currently weighted towards Donald Trump. My reading is that he may well do ok in the debates and he is accordingly likely to shorten.

    It may have been a strategy of his to get the mad racist stuff out there early to attract the kind of people it attracts, and play nice from here on in to help the people it offends, forget about it. A combination of that, and another Hillary health glitch, might put him in with a serious shout.

    Ishmael_X said:

    Like OGH I'm currently weighted towards Donald Trump. My reading is that he may well do ok in the debates and he is accordingly likely to shorten.

    It may have been a strategy of his to get the mad racist stuff out there early to attract the kind of people it attracts, and play nice from here on in to help the people it offends, forget about it. A combination of that, and another Hillary health glitch, might put him in with a serious shout.

    too late for that. the 'trump pivot' has and will never happen.
  • Ishmael_X said:

    Like OGH I'm currently weighted towards Donald Trump. My reading is that he may well do ok in the debates and he is accordingly likely to shorten.

    It may have been a strategy of his to get the mad racist stuff out there early to attract the kind of people it attracts, and play nice from here on in to help the people it offends, forget about it. A combination of that, and another Hillary health glitch, might put him in with a serious shout.

    I don't think it's that calculated. We've watched a narcissist having fun. In the debates he's going to be aiming to have fun and grab the headlines. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton will be trying not to make a gaffe. Fun usually beats boring, initially at least.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,706
    MP_SE said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    http://politi.co/2ctpJjA

    lying ted cruz bends over for the man who accused his dad of killing jfk and who called his wife ugly

    He wants the nomination in 2020 if Trump loses, that will be the reason
    A disastrous Clinton presidency (which is a near certainty) will help the Republican candidate immensely in 2020.
    Yes but it would have to be an apocalyptic Clinton presidency for Cruz to win, like Labour for the Tories the GOP could well be the gift which keeps on giving for the Dems!
  • Mr. Llama, impossible. Trade only occurs with countries in the single market, you know ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,706
    edited September 2016
    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Albeit Leave got 17 million, rather short of its 50 million target then even if it did narrowly win! Presumably Trump's campaign must have identified some supporters in the primaries too
    A bit hard to get 50 million when the electorate was only 44 million.
    Only 27 million off then!
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sixth like Man Utd.

    or actually 6th like Liverpool...

    sneaky edit there! tse's Yorkshire link is lost
    I know, Yorkshire's reign as champions is over. Too bad it was that county that does not exist that took the title.
    Proof that just because a county doesn't have a county council doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Cheshire and IIRC Berkshire are other examples.
    During the 2011 Census we had requests for data for Middlesex. I was in favour of politely pointing out that it doesn't exist. I was overruled.
    Correctly. If you rely on county councils you end up with absurdities like Derby not being in Derbyshire.
    Sorry, when I say overruled, I mean I had to be more polite. If you want to see the results for the old ceremonial county of Derbyshire you can combine Derby and Derbyshire CC. Middlesex, on the other hand, does not exist. It got split up in to Greater London Councils and I believe a bit went to Surrey.
    Only administratively.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,203
    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sixth like Man Utd.

    or actually 6th like Liverpool...

    sneaky edit there! tse's Yorkshire link is lost
    I know, Yorkshire's reign as champions is over. Too bad it was that county that does not exist that took the title.
    Proof that just because a county doesn't have a county council doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Cheshire and IIRC Berkshire are other examples.
    During the 2011 Census we had requests for data for Middlesex. I was in favour of politely pointing out that it doesn't exist. I was overruled.
    Correctly. If you rely on county councils you end up with absurdities like Derby not being in Derbyshire.
    Kansas City isn't in Kansas...
    Oh, but it is! The actual conurbation straddles the state line. There is a Kansas City, MO, and a Kansas City, KS. The latter is the 3rd largest city in KS, and the 3rd largest city of the areas making up Kansas City metropolitan area.
    KC KS is a new innovation. They used to be known as Lenaxa, Olathe and Overland - far more useful descriptors
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,706

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Albeit Leave got 17 million, rather short of its 50 million target then even if it did narrowly win! Presumably Trump's campaign must have identified some supporters in the primaries too
    I think people are conflating Trump and Leave too much.

    Leave in the UK might turn out to be something of a unique case. The EU was uniquely overbearing and the status quo membership of the UK had become politically untenable here.

    Leave won because it combined the 35-40% voting against immigration and concerned about globalisation with the 10-15% who were concerned about sovereignty.

    Without either of the other Leave couldn't have won. In the US, it might transpire that Trump just has the former.
    Perhaps, though the libertarians who voted Leave in the UK are now with Johnson rather than Clinton. Also, if the US had UK demographics Trump would probably now be favourite
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Mr. Llama, impossible. Trade only occurs with countries in the single market, you know ;)

    You have email, Mr. Dancer.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,867
    tlg86 said:



    Sorry, when I say overruled, I mean I had to be more polite. If you want to see the results for the old ceremonial county of Derbyshire you can combine Derby and Derbyshire CC. Middlesex, on the other hand, does not exist. It got split up in to Greater London Councils and I believe a bit went to Surrey.

    Indeed, Staines, Stanwell, Ashford and surrounding areas went to Surrey but have retained Middlesex in the postal address.

    Parts of Middlesex went to Hillingdon and others to new unitary authorities formed out of the rest of the county.

    We now have an absurd hotch-potch of unitary and two-tier local Government which is confusing and unsatisfactory. No one and especially the Conservatives has the stomach for further re-organisation though in effect many of the authorities are already merging via collaborative working, partnerships, joint ventures and the like.

    I also question the viability of having individuals serving as both Borough and County Councillors contemporaneously or even at the same time. They are separate sovereign authorities and businesses and it looks odd to have the same individuals having a foot in both camps.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2016
    Essexit said:

    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Did u campaign with them?
    As I say, I was a constituency co-ordinator. So there on the ground throughout and fielding a lot of emails and calls around the day job too.
    Another example. In a Hampshire area (10,000+ voters) with only Lib Dem councillors with networks able to deliver 4+ leaflets each campaign, they were out delievered at least 2:1 by LEAVErs. No REMAIN posters seen only LEAVE (usually lots of LDs in election periods).
  • Mr. Llama, replied.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Essexit said:

    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Did u campaign with them?
    As I say, I was a constituency co-ordinator. So there on the ground throughout and fielding a lot of emails and calls around the day job too.
    Thank you for your efforts. And in an important part of the country for Leave too.
  • Anna Soubry takes a dim view of the local boundary changes - but at present just urging people to contact the Commissioners:

    https://bramcotetoday.org.uk/2016/09/23/news-from-anna-soubry-mp-september-23-2016/#more-25848

    I've not expressed a view on the local changes (which divide Broxtowe into two, both of them less Tory than the current one because of additions from outside).

    I would have voted UKIP in your constituency, even if that had let you in.
    Me to. Kippers for Nick!
    May be Broxtowe voters could get Conservative MPs next time if Sourby is deselected, hic..
  • Ishmael_X said:

    Like OGH I'm currently weighted towards Donald Trump. My reading is that he may well do ok in the debates and he is accordingly likely to shorten.

    It may have been a strategy of his to get the mad racist stuff out there early to attract the kind of people it attracts, and play nice from here on in to help the people it offends, forget about it. A combination of that, and another Hillary health glitch, might put him in with a serious shout.

    I don't think it's that calculated. We've watched a narcissist having fun. In the debates he's going to be aiming to have fun and grab the headlines. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton will be trying not to make a gaffe. Fun usually beats boring, initially at least.
    In McMurphy vs Ratched, the people will be with Mac.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    stodge said:

    tlg86 said:



    Sorry, when I say overruled, I mean I had to be more polite. If you want to see the results for the old ceremonial county of Derbyshire you can combine Derby and Derbyshire CC. Middlesex, on the other hand, does not exist. It got split up in to Greater London Councils and I believe a bit went to Surrey.

    Indeed, Staines, Stanwell, Ashford and surrounding areas went to Surrey but have retained Middlesex in the postal address.

    Parts of Middlesex went to Hillingdon and others to new unitary authorities formed out of the rest of the county.

    We now have an absurd hotch-potch of unitary and two-tier local Government which is confusing and unsatisfactory. No one and especially the Conservatives has the stomach for further re-organisation though in effect many of the authorities are already merging via collaborative working, partnerships, joint ventures and the like.

    I also question the viability of having individuals serving as both Borough and County Councillors contemporaneously or even at the same time. They are separate sovereign authorities and businesses and it looks odd to have the same individuals having a foot in both camps.

    We had a bloke like that around here. He was a member of both the district and county councils and collecting allowances from both. He was in fact a full-time politician, but as he was a Conservative in a solidly Conservative area and well in with the old dears who run the local association nobody thought to question it. I expect there are lots of people from all different parties pulling off the same trick all over the country,
  • 619 said:

    http://politi.co/2ctpJjA

    lying ted cruz bends over for the man who accused his dad of killing jfk and who called his wife ugly

  • MP_SE said:
    "she bored them rigid with whining, lefty, PC crap"

    :smiley:
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 996
    tlg86 said:

    MP_SE said:
    Who's column is that in, Jezza's?
    tlg86 said:

    MP_SE said:
    Who's column is that in, Jezza's?
    That looks like it's written by Glenda Slagg in Private Eye, jesus.
  • MP_SE said:

    Top trolling from the Sun.

    ttps://twitter.com/AngelaCassidy83/status/779360951430680576

    "she bored them rigid with whining, lefty, PC crap"

    :smiley:
    There should be more articles like this in the Guardian – sales would go through the roof...
  • Ishmael_X said:

    Like OGH I'm currently weighted towards Donald Trump. My reading is that he may well do ok in the debates and he is accordingly likely to shorten.

    It may have been a strategy of his to get the mad racist stuff out there early to attract the kind of people it attracts, and play nice from here on in to help the people it offends, forget about it. A combination of that, and another Hillary health glitch, might put him in with a serious shout.

    I don't think it's that calculated. We've watched a narcissist having fun. In the debates he's going to be aiming to have fun and grab the headlines. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton will be trying not to make a gaffe. Fun usually beats boring, initially at least.
    In McMurphy vs Ratched, the people will be with Mac.
    So Trump will try to strangle Hillary, be lobotomised and then be suffocated by Chris Christie?
  • Ishmael_X said:

    Like OGH I'm currently weighted towards Donald Trump. My reading is that he may well do ok in the debates and he is accordingly likely to shorten.

    It may have been a strategy of his to get the mad racist stuff out there early to attract the kind of people it attracts, and play nice from here on in to help the people it offends, forget about it. A combination of that, and another Hillary health glitch, might put him in with a serious shout.

    I don't think it's that calculated. We've watched a narcissist having fun. In the debates he's going to be aiming to have fun and grab the headlines. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton will be trying not to make a gaffe. Fun usually beats boring, initially at least.
    In McMurphy vs Ratched, the people will be with Mac.
    So Trump will try to strangle Hillary, be lobotomised and then be suffocated by Chris Christie?
    I'd watch that.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,364

    MP_SE said:
    "she bored them rigid with whining, lefty, PC crap"

    :smiley:
    She must like whining lefty pc crap then?
  • Imagine the stunning victory Cameron would have had if he had denounced the EU for being short sightedly intransigent and doctrinal in his renegotiation with them and campaigned for Brexit.
  • The Hungarian referendum on the EU's migrant plan looks like a nailbiter:

    :lol:
  • Imagine the stunning victory Cameron would have had if he had denounced the EU for being short sightedly intransigent and doctrinal in his renegotiation with them and campaigned for Brexit.
    You're making the usual Leaver mistake of assuming that Remainers didn't believe that they were advocating the right course of action for the country as they saw it.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,762
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Albeit Leave got 17 million, rather short of its 50 million target then even if it did narrowly win! Presumably Trump's campaign must have identified some supporters in the primaries too
    I think people are conflating Trump and Leave too much.

    Leave in the UK might turn out to be something of a unique case. The EU was uniquely overbearing and the status quo membership of the UK had become politically untenable here.

    Leave won because it combined the 35-40% voting against immigration and concerned about globalisation with the 10-15% who were concerned about sovereignty.

    Without either of the other Leave couldn't have won. In the US, it might transpire that Trump just has the former.
    Perhaps, though the libertarians who voted Leave in the UK are now with Johnson rather than Clinton. Also, if the US had UK demographics Trump would probably now be favourite
    Agreed, the parallels only run so far; I'm firmly in the Leave/Johnson camp. If only Trump and Clinton really could both lose!
  • No wonder you feel so at home in Hungary. Salt of the earth.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,866



    I would have voted UKIP in your constituency, even if that had let you in.

    Anna is ruder about UKIP than I'd ever be :)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,867

    <

    We had a bloke like that around here. He was a member of both the district and county councils and collecting allowances from both. He was in fact a full-time politician, but as he was a Conservative in a solidly Conservative area and well in with the old dears who run the local association nobody thought to question it. I expect there are lots of people from all different parties pulling off the same trick all over the country,

    Indeed, Mr Llama and my comment wasn't meant as a jibe against councillors from any particular party (the LDs and Labour do it as well).

    The overwhelming majority of these "two headed" councillors do so out of a sense of public duty and a strong desire to do the best for their area.

    My problem is the local Councillor can afford to be parochial - the County Councillor has a larger area and I think carrying that parochial attitude up the line inhibits strategic decision making which often involves disadvantaging one area to achieve a greater benefit elsewhere. That benefit won't be obvious - the disadvantage will.

  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,762
    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Did u campaign with them?
    As I say, I was a constituency co-ordinator. So there on the ground throughout and fielding a lot of emails and calls around the day job too.
    Thank you for your efforts. And in an important part of the country for Leave too.
    Thanks. My constituency (Colchester) was probably the weakest part of Essex for Leave though. That said, 53.6% for Colchester Borough (which also includes a few bits of Bernard Jenkin's Harwich and North Essex and Priti Patel's Witham), when the constituency had a Lib Dem MP until 2015 and therefore a fairly strong Remain ground operation was a result we were very happy with.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,706
    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Albeit Leave got 17 million, rather short of its 50 million target then even if it did narrowly win! Presumably Trump's campaign must have identified some supporters in the primaries too
    I think people are conflating Trump and Leave too much.

    Leave in the UK might turn out to be something of a unique case. The EU was uniquely overbearing and the status quo membership of the UK had become politically untenable here.

    Leave won because it combined the 35-40% voting against immigration and concerned about globalisation with the 10-15% who were concerned about sovereignty.

    Without either of the other Leave couldn't have won. In the US, it might transpire that Trump just has the former.
    Perhaps, though the libertarians who voted Leave in the UK are now with Johnson rather than Clinton. Also, if the US had UK demographics Trump would probably now be favourite
    Agreed, the parallels only run so far; I'm firmly in the Leave/Johnson camp. If only Trump and Clinton really could both lose!
    Many feel that way although one of them will have to win
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,536
    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Albeit Leave got 17 million, rather short of its 50 million target then even if it did narrowly win! Presumably Trump's campaign must have identified some supporters in the primaries too
    I think people are conflating Trump and Leave too much.

    Leave in the UK might turn out to be something of a unique case. The EU was uniquely overbearing and the status quo membership of the UK had become politically untenable here.

    Leave won because it combined the 35-40% voting against immigration and concerned about globalisation with the 10-15% who were concerned about sovereignty.

    Without either of the other Leave couldn't have won. In the US, it might transpire that Trump just has the former.
    Perhaps, though the libertarians who voted Leave in the UK are now with Johnson rather than Clinton. Also, if the US had UK demographics Trump would probably now be favourite
    Agreed, the parallels only run so far; I'm firmly in the Leave/Johnson camp. If only Trump and Clinton really could both lose!
    There's a campaign to make Boris leave? Where do I sign up?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 1,936

    MP_SE said:
    "she bored them rigid with whining, lefty, PC crap"

    :smiley:
    Funny how Harry Potter, a film about comradeship and mutual support has turned its main stars into compassionate, thoughtful people. Good for them I say. Go Em Rupe and Dan ;)
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,762
    Essexit said:

    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    619 said:

    whilst i agree about echoes of brexit, i think the big difference is consequence.

    polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country

    compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration

    Trump really has missed a trick with the lack of voter registration, ground campaign, and (one presumes) GOTV operation.
    Was the Leave GOTV effort really that better in comparison? Essentially if the election were tomorrow Hillary would scrape home, however if Trump has a convincing win in the debate on Monday and holds his own in the other debates he could well clinch the presidency. Of course Leave was generally felt to have done best in the debates in the referendum campaign
    I'd say so: between freepost slips on leaflets, street stall sign-ups, door knocking, and the 50million campaign we identified thousands of definite or highly likely voters in every constituency to target in the run-up to and on June the 23rd.

    Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
    Did u campaign with them?
    As I say, I was a constituency co-ordinator. So there on the ground throughout and fielding a lot of emails and calls around the day job too.
    Thank you for your efforts. And in an important part of the country for Leave too.
    Thanks. My constituency (Colchester) was probably the weakest part of Essex for Leave though. That said, 53.6% for Colchester Borough (which also includes a few bits of Bernard Jenkin's Harwich and North Essex and Priti Patel's Witham), when the constituency had a Lib Dem MP until 2015 and therefore a fairly strong Remain ground operation was a result we were very happy with.
    Actually, not quite the weakest part. Just checked and Uttlesford (Saffron Walden, Stansted etc) was 50.7% and Chelmsford was 52.8%. Still, far from the best result in Essex!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604

    Did Schultz really say no single mrket access without free movement? Surely almost everyone has 'access' to the single market? Membership without free movement would obviously be a non-starter but what are they up to?

    At most I suspect they are deliberately trying to confuse. You see it on this site everyday where people say access when what they are talking about is membership. Sometimes it is just sloppy thinking, sometimes, perhaps, it is just a subtle extension of project fear.

    Looking around my study very little of the goodies have been made in the EU, save probably most of the books. The keyboard on which I type, the computers, the monitors, the Kindle, the phone, the printer have all been made in countries that are not members of the single market and which do not have a free trade agreement with the EU. Yet they were all bought here in the UK.
    If you have any Apple products, then there is a fair chance they were "made" in the Hollyhill factory in Ireland*.

    * "Made" is a relative term.

    But, more seriously, there is a surprising amount of "stuff" that's made in Europe.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,362
    stodge said:

    <

    We had a bloke like that around here. He was a member of both the district and county councils and collecting allowances from both. He was in fact a full-time politician, but as he was a Conservative in a solidly Conservative area and well in with the old dears who run the local association nobody thought to question it. I expect there are lots of people from all different parties pulling off the same trick all over the country,

    Indeed, Mr Llama and my comment wasn't meant as a jibe against councillors from any particular party (the LDs and Labour do it as well).

    The overwhelming majority of these "two headed" councillors do so out of a sense of public duty and a strong desire to do the best for their area.

    My problem is the local Councillor can afford to be parochial - the County Councillor has a larger area and I think carrying that parochial attitude up the line inhibits strategic decision making which often involves disadvantaging one area to achieve a greater benefit elsewhere. That benefit won't be obvious - the disadvantage will.

    "Double hatters" is the rigorous technical term.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,155
    "This is, of course, all about the outcomes in the key swing states but the national surveys gives us a good overview of the election that takes place in just 46 days time."

    Nate Silver's model seems inconsistent on the relationship between national vote and swing states.

    He currently shows Clinton with an average lead of 2.6% nationally. He also shows a much higher likelihood of Clinton winning the national vote but losing the electoral college (7.2%) than of Trump doing the same (1.2%). That implies Trump's votes are more efficiently distributed than Clinton's.

    However, those figures also mean that a 1.3% swing to Trump would make the national votes equal, whereas Silver's state-by-state figures would require a 1.75% swing to Trump for him to win the electoral college. That implies Clinton's votes are more efficiently distributed than Trump's!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rcs1000 said:

    Did Schultz really say no single mrket access without free movement? Surely almost everyone has 'access' to the single market? Membership without free movement would obviously be a non-starter but what are they up to?

    At most I suspect they are deliberately trying to confuse. You see it on this site everyday where people say access when what they are talking about is membership. Sometimes it is just sloppy thinking, sometimes, perhaps, it is just a subtle extension of project fear.

    Looking around my study very little of the goodies have been made in the EU, save probably most of the books. The keyboard on which I type, the computers, the monitors, the Kindle, the phone, the printer have all been made in countries that are not members of the single market and which do not have a free trade agreement with the EU. Yet they were all bought here in the UK.
    If you have any Apple products, then there is a fair chance they were "made" in the Hollyhill factory in Ireland*.

    * "Made" is a relative term.

    But, more seriously, there is a surprising amount of "stuff" that's made in Europe.
    I don't touch Apple products, Mr. Robert. I can get good enough functionality from elsewhere a lot cheaper. I am of course aware that a lot of stuff is made in the EU and indeed in the UK. That wasn't the point of my post though as I am sure you are aware.

    Membership of the single market is not needed to sell into it. Lots of countries manage to do that quite successfully and don't have to belong to the EEA or pay subscriptions or accept any sort of free movement of people arrangement to do so.


  • I would have voted UKIP in your constituency, even if that had let you in.

    Anna is ruder about UKIP than I'd ever be :)
    It is a fact in that new book which states that the more leftie you are the ruder you are about people in other parties. Since Sourby is further left than you, your comment fits.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,407
    @bbclaurak: Labour conference slogan will be 'Working together for real change' - message to party to unite + aimed at claim that Tories are divisive
This discussion has been closed.